JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,006,036 km2(September 15, 2019)
Extent loss in the last 6 days of 164 K, compared with an average of a net 20 k gain over the 6 days, completely changed the end of season metrics from an early minimum 4th lowest to a late minimum 2nd lowest.
On this day,
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 828 k greater than 2012, 247 k less than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing quickly, and 63 k less than 2007,
- Extent loss on this day 20 k, 32 k different from the average gain on this day of 12 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,265 k, 473 k (4.8%) greater than the average of 9,792 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 100% % of the melting season done, with minus 2 days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.02 million km) would give a minimum of 3.98 million km2, 2nd lowest (now guaranteed), 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2, 0.04 million km2 less than 2016, 0.09 million km2 less than 2007.
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Ice Melt Outlook ??
From today on average there are daily extent gains . However, in the the last 10 years there were 2 years (2010 & 2018) with further extent loss greater than 6k, which give a minimum of less than 4 million km2.
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Gets below 4 million km2? Stays above 4 million km2 ? Some of those who take their poll forecasts seriously will end up shrieking with joy, others will weep and think about taking themselves and their shotgun out to the barn.