Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 1163059 times)

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2500 on: September 19, 2019, 07:37:57 AM »
With that increase I think it's very likely that 2019 melting season is over. Seems very hard to have another decrease this late in the season.

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2501 on: September 19, 2019, 09:00:39 AM »
with only 1 day after minimum with a not-so-large increase, I wouldn't call minimum yet personally. Yeah, it's possible, but we are in a fluctuating period. A drop today isn't unlikely

zufall

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 195
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 58
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2502 on: September 19, 2019, 09:57:25 AM »
For completeness sake, the averages of the day-to-day extent change variations for this year until Sep 17 are:
- for NSIDC 1-day average: 60.9k
- for NSIDC 5-day average: 13.4k
- for JAXA: 24.2k
The approach suggested by sailor is surely better.

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2503 on: September 19, 2019, 11:56:14 AM »
I wouldn't quite call minimum /freezing season  yet, but perhaps in another day or two.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2504 on: September 19, 2019, 02:35:26 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,978,839 km2(September 18, 2019)

Extent gain this day 15k. 3 days below 4 million km2.
The melting season is supposed to be over. Maybe it is, maybe not.


On this day,
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 693 k greater than 2012, 393 k less than 2016, and 95 k less than 2007,
- Extent gain on this day 15 k, 17 k less than the average gain on this day of 32 k.

The Perils of Projections.
2018 remaining melt (0.04 million km & the only year left) would give a minimum of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2, 0.09 million km2 less than 2016, 0.14 million km2 less than 2007.

____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

It is supposed to be well into the beginning of extent gains.
The melting season thread reports new ice in several locations.

But......
____________________________________________________________
NOTE I have replaced 2012 with 2018 in the Arc2 graph, as for the next few weeks 2018 had very low extent gains.  I might add 2007, as until mid-October 2007 was also exceptional.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2505 on: September 19, 2019, 02:45:12 PM »
Today extent declines in the Laptev side due to compaction, it's visible on the Worldview. But in the Pacific side ice may expand because of spreading and cold temperatures.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2506 on: September 19, 2019, 03:45:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,033,896 km2


The 2019 Minimum Has Passed?- I think the NSIDC area data says yes.

On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by 52 k,
One-day NSIDC EXTENT GAIN 23 k ,
JAXA extent GAIN 16 k

Since 5 September 5-day area has increased by 124k, while 5-day extent has reduced by 132k. The length and scale of this divergence especially at this time of year is, I think, unusual

e.g. in the last 6 days Central Arctic Sea EXTENT reduced by 51k, AREA increased by 121 k.

                        
Total Area         
 3,033,896    km2      
-211,259    km2   <   2010's average.
-323,686    km2   <   2018
-1,072,766    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__    50    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    45    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area gain 52 k, 23 k more than the 2010's average area gain of 29 k on this day,
- Area is 72 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

Methinks the area minimum has passed

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent might still be open.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 06:17:22 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 374
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2507 on: September 19, 2019, 05:31:20 PM »
JAXA extent GAIN 16 k (again a new minimum)

Hmmm 🤔

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2508 on: September 19, 2019, 06:17:47 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 758
  • Likes Given: 459
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2509 on: September 19, 2019, 06:31:33 PM »
Bering Sea is now officially ice-free...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

helorime

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2510 on: September 19, 2019, 06:58:27 PM »
I am confused.  I check the NSIDC site most days, and there seems to be a disconnect between what I am seeing on the NSDIC site and what is posted here.  For Sept 18 NSIDC daily extent shows as 4.153 million km^2 edging below 20016 and 2007 to 2nd lowest after several days of steady losses.  I assume that we are somehow looking at different NSIDC data? 
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

sailor

  • Guest
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2511 on: September 19, 2019, 07:06:34 PM »
I am confused.  I check the NSIDC site most days, and there seems to be a disconnect between what I am seeing on the NSDIC site and what is posted here.  For Sept 18 NSIDC daily extent shows as 4.153 million km^2 edging below 20016 and 2007 to 2nd lowest after several days of steady losses.  I assume that we are somehow looking at different NSIDC data?
It’s probably the 5-day NSIDC average, look at Alphabet Hotel table once posted.

mabarnes

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2512 on: September 19, 2019, 07:08:41 PM »
I am confused.  I check the NSIDC site most days, and there seems to be a disconnect between what I am seeing on the NSDIC site and what is posted here.  For Sept 18 NSIDC daily extent shows as 4.153 million km^2 edging below 20016 and 2007 to 2nd lowest after several days of steady losses.  I assume that we are somehow looking at different NSIDC data?

Yes.  Area (gerontocrat) vs. Extent (your graph). 

helorime

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2513 on: September 19, 2019, 07:18:51 PM »
Gerontocrat said "One-day NSIDC EXTENT GAIN 23 k " while the graph shows a drop.

On further analysis it looks like the graph does involve averaging though that is not stated on the graph.  The data tables I do not look at as much as I have to download them to see them, and they are not set up for easy viewing, but on the daily extent table there is a 23K gain.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2514 on: September 19, 2019, 07:29:59 PM »
Gerontocrat said "One-day NSIDC EXTENT GAIN 23 k " while the graph shows a drop.

On further analysis it looks like the graph does involve averaging though that is not stated on the graph.  The data tables I do not look at as much as I have to download them to see them, and they are not set up for easy viewing, but on the daily extent table there is a 23K gain.

NSIDC 5 day extent 18 Sept 4.153, drop of 17k,
NSIDC one day extent 18 Sept 4.123, gain of 23k.



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2515 on: September 19, 2019, 07:55:33 PM »
I am confused.  I check the NSIDC site most days, and there seems to be a disconnect between what I am seeing on the NSDIC site and what is posted here.  For Sept 18 NSIDC daily extent shows as 4.153 million km^2 edging below 20016 and 2007 to 2nd lowest after several days of steady losses.  I assume that we are somehow looking at different NSIDC data?
There is different NSIDC data:

1. NSIDC has a daily extent measure, that doesn't promote too much. You can find this data on the following link:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
look for the file: N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv

2. NSIDC makes a five-day trailing average, with the data of the file above. By example, for September 18th, the data is:

Daily data:
Sept 14th, 2019: 4.171
Sept 15th, 2019: 4.161
Sept 16th, 2019: 4.211
Sept 17th, 2019: 4.100
Sept 18th, 2019: 4.123
5 Day Average on Sept 18th, 2019 ---> 4.153 M km2.
This is the value that NSIDC makes public on several places, including their Charctic Graph.

3. The above information is base on extent, but it is also area.

So, the daily extent can go up (from 4.100 yesterday to 4.123 M km2 today) but the 5-day average can go down (from 4.170 yesterday to 4.153 M km2 today).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 456
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 179
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2516 on: September 19, 2019, 08:06:34 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2517 on: September 19, 2019, 08:31:29 PM »
I assume that we are somehow looking at different NSIDC data?
There is different NSIDC data:

1. NSIDC has a daily extent measure, that doesn't promote too much. You can find this data on the following link:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
look for the file: N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv

2. NSIDC makes a five-day trailing average, with the data of the file above. By example, for September 18th, the data is:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ files 1 & 6 have the same data in Excel format.

Regional Sea area and extent data (file 6) is only provided as 5-day averages

The files are compatible with most spreadsheet packages being simple numerical data - no formulae..

It is updated daily at around 12:45 Greenwich Mean Time, crack of dawn in Colorado.

See description on attached image.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

philopek

  • Guest
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2518 on: September 19, 2019, 09:21:22 PM »
Gerontocrat said "One-day NSIDC EXTENT GAIN 23 k " while the graph shows a drop.

On further analysis it looks like the graph does involve averaging though that is not stated on the graph.  The data tables I do not look at as much as I have to download them to see them, and they are not set up for easy viewing, but on the daily extent table there is a 23K gain.

Before you make yourself looking bad by insisting on something that can be understood easily when reading the forum as a whole and the replies to you question specifically i try to repeat it for you and recommend that you start thinking about why all the replies you receive sound so similar or almost identical.

The gain is a gain  from before yesterday to yesterday, published today.

The drop is the result of a 5 day trailing average starting 6 days ago, ending yesterday and
published today.

I assume that it's obvious why those two numbers differ (5+4+3+2+1=15/5=3) or (+1=1) ;)

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2519 on: September 20, 2019, 05:43:00 AM »
September 19th, 2019:
     4,010,131 km2, an increase of 31,292 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2520 on: September 20, 2019, 05:46:06 AM »
Juan, thank you for your timely and informative posts.

I believe the lady has finally sung.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2521 on: September 20, 2019, 11:21:41 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,010,131 km2(September 19, 2019)

Extent gain this day 31k, 15k the previous day.

The melting season is supposed to be over. The first table attached says it is.

I have prepared the bit of the spreadsheet that has the analysis for the 2019-20 maximum.

Neven will be feeling the pressure now?


On this day,
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 640 k greater than 2012, 409 k less than 2016, and 89 k less than 2007,
- Extent gain on this day 31 k, 4 k more than the average gain on this day of 27 k.

The Perils of Projections.

A bit early to predict the 2020 max?
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs high might slow re-freeze?
____________________________________________________________
NOTE I have replaced 2012 with 2018 in the Arc2 graph, as for the next few weeks 2018 had very low extent gains.  I might add 2007, as until mid-October 2007 was also exceptional.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 11:27:12 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 456
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 179
  • Likes Given: 179
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2522 on: September 20, 2019, 02:54:49 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2523 on: September 20, 2019, 03:25:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,098,838 km2


The 2019 Minimum Has Passed?- I think, I am sure,  the NSIDC area data says yes.

On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA increased by 65k, 52 k the day before,
One-day NSIDC EXTENT GAIN 53k, 23 k the day before,
JAXA extent GAIN 31k, 16 k the day before.

Since 5 September 5-day area has increased by 189k.

                        
Total Area         
 3,098,838    km2      
-164,087    km2   <   2010's average.
-286,264    km2   <   2018
-1,019,660    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    65    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    59    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    48    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

________________________________________________________________________
Outlook

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent just might still be open, probably not.

Not my decision on when to open the freezing thread - jolly good thing too.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 842
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2524 on: September 20, 2019, 03:55:30 PM »
Although I would tend to agree that extent has most likely passed its minimum, I woud wait just a little longer to be sure.  NSIDC extent need only fall below 4.156 tomorrow to set a new minimum for the year.  Alternatively, a gain of just 5 k over each of the next two days would set a new minimum (due to a quirk in the data).  After that , it will certainly be over.  Hang on for a few more days.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2525 on: September 20, 2019, 07:46:32 PM »
Although I would tend to agree that extent has most likely passed its minimum, I woud wait just a little longer to be sure.  NSIDC extent need only fall below 4.156 tomorrow to set a new minimum for the year.  Alternatively, a gain of just 5 k over each of the next two days would set a new minimum (due to a quirk in the data).  After that , it will certainly be over.  Hang on for a few more days.

Yes, JAXA and NSIDC EXTENT might pull a surprise, but as far as NSIDC AREA is concerned, I am sure that is it - finito, kaput, passado, gone.

The next posts will say why.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2526 on: September 20, 2019, 07:58:33 PM »
NSIDC 5-day AREA analysed as for JAXA Extent - 19 Sept 2019 area  3,098,838 km2

This is 189k above the current minimum of 3,910k km2 on 5 September. In the last 10 years only 2018 had more area loss from this date, and even that would not produce a new minimum. (First table attached)

It is a week after the average date of minimum and on average daily area gain is now nearly 25k and rising. 2nd & 3rd images).

The last image shows that despite strong area gains in the last few days, 2019 area is still 3rd lowest.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2527 on: September 20, 2019, 08:37:11 PM »
NSIDC 5-day AREA analysed as for JAXA Extent - 19 Sept 2019 area  3,098,838 km2

Some more data


The first attachment compares the minimum as at 5 September with previous years' minima.
2019 area minimum was 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- 661 k above 2012,
- 461 k above 2016,
-364 k BELOW 2018.
and only 159k (5.2%) below the 2010's average. This is a contrast with the NSIDC extent current 2019 minimum being 385k (8.5%) below the 2010's average.

The plume of projections for the next month or so shows that while most years' daily area gains are clustered around the average, in 2009 and 201 area gains from now were initially very slow. Perhaps high SST's will make it the same this year.

Because daily 2019 area is getting closer to that of 2018, the daily reduction in the 365 day trailing average has also slowed. Any new record low area average looks like happening (if at all) in earl 2021, in contrast to extent where a new record low average is possible in early 2020.

I is tired & need a break, and so as far as NSIDC AREA is concerned, this is the last post until Neven opens the freezing thread

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 460
  • Likes Given: 117
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2528 on: September 20, 2019, 08:46:02 PM »


I is tired & need a break, and so as far as NSIDC AREA is concerned, this is the last post until Neven opens the freezing thread


A timely point for me to say thank you Geronto and to Juan and to all the data crunchers and plotters on this thread. Immense help in trying to make sense of a confusing end of season.

bosbas

  • New ice
  • Posts: 54
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2529 on: September 20, 2019, 09:44:18 PM »
A timely point for me to say thank you Geronto and to Juan and ... +1

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 625
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 188
  • Likes Given: 149
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2530 on: September 20, 2019, 09:52:39 PM »

And from me too. Thank you for all the excellent data and analysis.

zufall

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 195
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 58
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2531 on: September 20, 2019, 09:55:08 PM »
+1 !!!

cognitivebias2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 91
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2532 on: September 20, 2019, 09:59:26 PM »
The hard work is highly appreciated!

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2533 on: September 20, 2019, 10:00:59 PM »
Neven, are you reopening the refreezing thread today or tomorrow?  ;)

The fat lady has finally sung...

Great job Gerontocrat and Juan C. Garcia, thank you both 8) 8) You have earned a very well deserved rest now :)

ParabolicD

  • New ice
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2534 on: September 20, 2019, 10:43:56 PM »
Hi.

Longtime lurker who has just registered to echo the other posts.

Thank-you so much gerontocrat, Juan and all the other myriad posters who post and analyse the data to help us mere mortals understand what is happening up north.

As a primary school teacher in the UK I try my best to educate the young minds and possible future leaders of our county. Your data and explanations help me provide the evidence of what our civilization is doing to the planet and help shape the thoughts of the next generation.

Just posting to give my thanks... now back to lurking and not cluttering up threads :)

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 625
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 188
  • Likes Given: 149
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2535 on: September 20, 2019, 10:53:29 PM »
Neven, are you reopening the refreezing thread today or tomorrow?  ;)

The fat lady has finally sung...

Great job Gerontocrat and Juan C. Garcia, thank you both 8) 8) You have earned a very well deserved rest now :)

Are you sure - 2018 had a big drop today, and without increases the 5 day average is still going down thanks to the century break a couple of days ago

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2536 on: September 20, 2019, 10:58:47 PM »
Rox: Most likely yes. NSIDC 5-day average had a minor increase today. Up from 4,153 to 4,154 million square kilometers.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2537 on: September 21, 2019, 06:12:57 AM »
Juan hasn't posted it yet so if I may...

September 20th, 2019:
     4,054,403 km2, an increase of 44,272 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.

Alison

  • New ice
  • Posts: 56
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2538 on: September 21, 2019, 06:21:32 AM »
Additional thanks to Gerontocrat and Juan C. Garcia  :)

RealityCheck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 174
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2539 on: September 21, 2019, 06:48:13 AM »
Many thanks Juan and Gerontocrat, for your posting persistence through the season. Much appreciated.
Sic transit gloria mundi

Stephan

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2649
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 758
  • Likes Given: 459
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2540 on: September 21, 2019, 08:32:04 AM »
Thank you gerontocrat and Juan for keeping us up-to-date every single day. Much appreciated!
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

grixm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 699
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 374
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2541 on: September 21, 2019, 09:48:12 AM »
And to Alphabet Hotel

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2542 on: September 21, 2019, 11:02:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,054,403 km2(September 20, 2019)

3 days of extent gains, the last 2 above average.
Extent 90k above the current minimum of 3.96 million km2 on 16 17 Sept. whoops

The melting season is over. The first table attached says it is.


The next post is the last post about JAXA Arctic extent until the freezing thread opens.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2019, 12:46:00 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2543 on: September 21, 2019, 11:13:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,054,403 km2(September 20, 2019)

A bit more


The plume of projections for the next few weeks shows hat 2009 and 2018 had lowish extent gains, while the others were fairly tightly clustered around the average. Will high SSTs make 2019 follow 2018?

The next image shows the 2019 minimum compared with previous years' minima. The 2019 minima is 429k (9.8%) below the 2010's average.

The last image is the 365 days trailing average. The difference between 2019 and 2018 is currently declining, so the date for a record low average is being pushed into a later date in 2020.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gandul

  • Guest
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2544 on: September 21, 2019, 12:33:31 PM »
Minor note, the Jaxa minimum was on September 17, not September 16.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2545 on: September 21, 2019, 03:16:36 PM »
NSIDC 5-day extent just might hit a new minimum - even though unlikely.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2546 on: September 21, 2019, 08:20:51 PM »
Gerontocrat, bear in mind that this thread continues to the end of the year, unlike the melting season thread. You can just switch your table to the freezing season format.
Thanks for all your regular data updates btw, here and elsewhere on the forum.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2547 on: September 21, 2019, 08:41:00 PM »
Gerontocrat, bear in mind that this thread continues to the end of the year, unlike the melting season thread. You can just switch your table to the freezing season format.
Thanks for all your regular data updates btw, here and elsewhere on the forum.
Damn. I forgot.

But need a rest, and the spreadsheets need a good clean-up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2548 on: September 22, 2019, 05:52:07 AM »
Sorry for not posting yesterday.  :-\
A lot of things happened, but not bad.
The worst part: a bolt of lightning destroyed my internet connection (I was not at home, anyway, but this can complicate posting for some days). I am using my mobile to connect now with you.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 21st, 2019:
     4,091,591 km2, an increase of 37,188 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
« Last Edit: September 22, 2019, 05:57:50 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2487
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 23170
Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2549 on: September 22, 2019, 07:22:58 AM »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?