JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,515,575 km2(October 3, 2019)
On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 24k, 18k less than the average of 42k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 551 k, 196 k (26.2%) less than the average gain to date of 747 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 621 k more than 2012, just 31 k less than 2007, and 248k less than 2018***.
- 7.6% of the season done, 160 days on average to go.
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.61 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.27 million km2.
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Ice Gain Outlook ??
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 2 days.
*** The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent is reducing. This means progress towards a new 365 day trailing average record low is slowing, putting the current projection into mid 2020 from early 2020. This could easily change either way in the course of the next few days.
All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________