JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,638,382 km2(October 9, 2019)
Extent loss on this day, extent gain stalled on the previous day, continuing this slow re-freeze that if maintained will be for the record books.
Caveat- By this date, 2018 refreeze was even slower- but finished the freezing season with slightly above average total gain.
- Extent LOSS on this day 13k, 109k less than the average gain of 96k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 674 k, 546 k (44.7%) less than the average gain to date of 1,220 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 232 k more than 2012, 592k less than 2016, 421 k less than 2007, and 329k less than 2018,
- 12.4% of the season done, 154 days on average to go.
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.26 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.62 million km2. It is really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
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Ice Gain Outlook ??
Still no change to the basic comment.. (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).
Extent gains far below average and on this day -ve - how long can this last?
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ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low.
JAXA Data - October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual 5,628,500
2016 Actual 5,862,319
2017 Actual 6,522,898
2018 Actual 5,916,648
2007 Actual 5,938,496
2019 Projection 5,553,512