JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,132,780 km2(October 24, 2019)
Extent gain hugely above average for a 2nd day..
- Extent gain on this day 200k, 102 k more than the average gain of 98 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 2,369k, 709k (23.0%) less than the average gain to date of 3,077 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (62 days his year),
- Extent is 600 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,139 k (15.2%) less than the 2010's average,
- on average 31.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 138 days on average to go.
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.10 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.78 million km2.
It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount.
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Ice Gain Outlook??
And once again......
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.8 to +3.2 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding.
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values.
Was this 2nd day of high gain the start of a significant increase in the rate of extent gains?
Is it a temporary event as strong winds shove ice into the Kara, Barents and Greenland seas?
Will the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS resist the freezing season ?[ /i]
EDIT - after looking at Aluminium's latest gif on the freezing thread, the strong refreeze does look pretty much all over the Arctic Ocean.
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ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 227k.
JAXA Data - October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual 5,628,500
2016 Actual 5,862,319
2017 Actual 6,522,898
2018 Actual 5,916,648
2007 Actual 5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection 5,401,555
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