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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2750 on: October 22, 2019, 05:33:24 PM »
And, as if by magic, the Siberian seas freeze. The ESS is late this year, it typically freezes over very quickly. I wonder if there will be a pause as there was in 2016, or it'll be super fast like 2012. My guess is the former. In 2012 some of the heat had been sucked out of the mixed layer by the GAC. In 2019? I'd take odds (not very good odds though, it is the Arctic) that there is enough heat in the upper layers of the ocean to slow down refreeze, particularly over the deeper parts of the sea.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 06:04:51 PM by RoxTheGeologist »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2751 on: October 23, 2019, 05:51:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 22nd, 2019:
     5,877,913 km2, a century increase of 120,328 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of more than 1/2 million km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2752 on: October 23, 2019, 01:18:20 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 5,877,913 km2(October 22, 2019)

Extent gain below average a bit

- Extent gain on this day 120k, 12 k less than the average gain of 132 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 1,914 k, 843 k (30.6%) less than the average gain to date of 2,757 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (59 days his year),
- Extent is 514 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,251 k (17.6%)  less than the 2010's average,
- one average 28% of extent gain for the the season done, 141 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.96 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.92 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

And once again......
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +2.8 to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.
 
Extent gains for a fourth day close to average, these last 2 weeks of October being the peak of daily average extent gain in the freezing season.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Perhaps this has started, perhaps not.
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by over 250k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,371,099 
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2753 on: October 23, 2019, 03:22:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,604,575 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,604,575    km2      
-947,147    km2   <   2010's average.
-175,403    km2   <   2018
-1,919,459    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    67    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    60    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    16    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    20    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 67 k, 62 k less than the 2010's average of 129 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 947 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 175 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by just 47 k, 86 k the day before. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +2.8 to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values. Extent maybe already, Area definitely not
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2754 on: October 23, 2019, 04:08:21 PM »
NSIDC Data as at 22 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,604,575 km2

Some graphs


The Central Arctic Sea - defined by NSIDC basically as North of 80 degrees, has been well above average most of this year. It is difficult to find another sea where sea ice area and extent are not now well below the 2010's average

The Central Arctic Sea is now nearly 90 % full up (ice area), 98 % (ice extent). So it is no longer significant for area and extent data for the remainder of this freezing season, (though increase in thickness will obviously be critical for next year's melting season).
« Last Edit: October 23, 2019, 06:26:12 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2755 on: October 23, 2019, 04:20:39 PM »
NSIDC Data as at 22 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,604,575 km2

Some graphs (continued)


Pacification....
Bering Sea
Freezing season here usually starts in early November.
Chukchi Area still not increasing - contrary winds and sea drift contributing to this.
East Siberian Sea Ice Area is over 400,000 km2 less than the 2010's average at this date. Area increasing, but at a slower rate than average.
Beaufort Sea Ice  increasing at an average rate but area well below 2010's average
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2756 on: October 23, 2019, 05:00:14 PM »
NSIDC Data as at 22 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,604,575 km2

Some graphs (continued)

Central & Western Siberia...

Laptev
Sea Ice has been well below average since the melting season began. The question now is how late will it be before the sea is completely iced up.

Kara Sea Ice is consistently melting to minimum early and staying at that minimum for longer. 2019 is no exception. How late will freezing kick in this year?

Atlantification....

The Barents Sea was late in melting out, but now sea ice is slightly below the 2010's average. What happens next may well depend on wind & sea ice drift

The Greenland Sea Ice has been above and below the 2010's average all year, depending on the strength of ice export down the Fram Strait. Interestingly, despite currently very strong winds and sea ice drift down the Greenland East Coast, sea ice area gain has slowed, though sea ice area is well above the 2010's average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2757 on: October 23, 2019, 05:14:36 PM »
NSIDC Data as at 22 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,604,575 km2

Some graphs (continued)

Canadian... recently this area has seen a lot of above average temperatures

The Canadian Archipelago
Sea Ice Area after dithering around the 2010's average all year has decided to join the late freeze.

Baffin Bay SST's are still very high. Sea Ice Area is currently lowest in the satellite record (for 55 days this year).

Hudson Bay Freezing due to take off late this month or early November.

______________________________________________________
Okhotsk & St Lawrence - freezing not likely to get going for another month or so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2758 on: October 23, 2019, 10:36:51 PM »
gerotocrat,
thank you for the actual graphs of the individual seas. Very interesting...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2759 on: October 24, 2019, 01:23:37 AM »
Agreed...I visit every day for the updates.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2760 on: October 24, 2019, 05:43:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 23rd, 2019:
     5,967,812 km2, on this date, a small increase of 89,899 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of more than half million km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2761 on: October 24, 2019, 07:29:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 5,967,812 km2(October 23, 2019)

Extent gain well below average.

- Extent gain on this day 90k, 29 k less than the average gain of 119 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 2,004k, 872k (30.3%) less than the average gain to date of 2,876 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (60 days his year),
- Extent is 608 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,277 k (17.6%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 29.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 140 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.93 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.94 million km2. The maximum remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would produce a maximum of 13.81 million km2, a record low maximum by 70 k.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

And once again......
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +3 to +4 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging. (And perhaps even higher temperature anomalies beyond 5 days).
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Perhaps this has started, perhaps lower than average extent gains are going to persist.
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by over 260k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,362,680
______________________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 03:27:01 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

psymmo7

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2762 on: October 24, 2019, 08:01:14 AM »
Many thanks for the daily updates Gerontocrat.
This year looks really bad but, thanks to you, at least I know how bad, what the trend is and have a historical comparison.
May I just suggest eliminating a small typo to make your reports even better.
"one average" in the last line above the "Perils of Projection" section should be "On average'

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2763 on: October 24, 2019, 03:25:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,665,239 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,665,239    km2      
-1,017,235    km2   <   2010's average.
-251,607    km2   <   2018
-1,983,729    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    61    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    54    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    19    k   gain
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__    19    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    19    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 61 k, 70 k less than the 2010's average of 131 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 1,017 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 252 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now MORE than 2019 by just 19 k, so on this day 2019 area is lowest in the satellite record. It is still likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

On all measures of extent and area 2019 is now lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +3 to +4 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging. (And perhaps even higher temperature anomalies beyond 5 days).

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values. Extent maybe or maybe not, Area definitely not
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2764 on: October 24, 2019, 04:49:25 PM »
Wow. What a dismal refreeze.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2765 on: October 25, 2019, 05:43:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 24th, 2019:
     6,132,780 km2, a big century increase of 164,968 km2,
     that compensates the low yesterday's increase.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of 469K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2766 on: October 25, 2019, 07:25:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,132,780 km2(October 24, 2019)

Extent gain very much above average.

- Extent gain on this day 165k, 61 k more than the average gain of 104 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 2,169k, 811k (27.2%) less than the average gain to date of 2,979 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (61 days his year),
- Extent is 608 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,225 k (16.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 30.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 139 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.00 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.88 million km2.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

And once again......
Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.5 to +4 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. Was this day's high gain a one-off, or the start of a significant increase in the rate of extent gains?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 250k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,378,497
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2767 on: October 25, 2019, 08:27:14 AM »
Big climbs to continue till we catch up

Pavel

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2768 on: October 25, 2019, 09:16:54 AM »
The weather forecasts don't promise any noticeable heat advection to the high Arctic. Now it's time for the peripheral seas to finally freeze up quickly

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2769 on: October 25, 2019, 09:26:15 AM »
I'm not sure if this still holds, but 3 days ago the Europeans were predicting a major shift in weather starting next week - with extreme warmth in the Arctic.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/pattern-change-cold-air-usa-europe-snow-expand-fa/?fbclid=IwAR1IkV0ym-7zFnlgzaK5U3rd4RQ5frUsPBqPRNEg1caFY47M-_PUGUZBVCo



GFS seems to be saying something similar, with major temperature anomalies all over the place, in the Arctic, in Siberia and over Greenland and CAA.

because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2770 on: October 25, 2019, 09:29:58 AM »
The article linked in my previous post predicts that two blocking highs will form over Greenland and Alaska, pumping cold Arctic air down Eastern Europe and Central N-America, and pumping hot air north over e.g. Siberia. So I'd venture to predict that the refreeze will be in trouble again next week.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2771 on: October 25, 2019, 03:21:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,731,513 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,731,513    km2      
-1,079,096    km2   <   2010's average.
-344,456    km2   <   2018
-2,043,299    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    66    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    62    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__    25    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    18    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 66 k, 62 k less than the 2010's average of 128 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 1,079 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 344 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now MORE than 2019 by 83 k, so for the 2nd day 2019 area is once again lowest in the satellite record. It is still likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

On all measures of extent and area 2019 is now lowest in the satellite record.
In contrast, NSIDC & JAXA daily extent gain very high on this day
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies around +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values. Extent maybe or maybe not, Area definitely not - yet
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gregcharles

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2772 on: October 26, 2019, 03:10:45 AM »
So, as of a week ago, 2019 captured the last few JAXA daily records held by 2007, giving the 2010s a clean sweep. Interestingly, except for 2013 and 2014, the rebound years after 2012, every year of 2010s has some of the daily records. For now, 2016 has the most, but just about half those were after this date, so 2019 still has a chance of passing it.


Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2773 on: October 26, 2019, 05:45:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 25th, 2019:
     6,333,103 km2, a double century increase of 200,323 km2::)
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A decreasing difference of 348K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).
      But a huge difference of 600K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2018 (3rd lowest).
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 05:50:39 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2774 on: October 26, 2019, 07:04:09 AM »
Don't worry Juan, in a couple of days 2016 will be lowest on record. Any thing else would be surprising.

pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2775 on: October 26, 2019, 09:28:58 AM »
Yes there is huge freeze up happening. Its late but wouldnt be surprised to see us drop down the rankings by November 30th.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2776 on: October 26, 2019, 01:33:05 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,132,780 km2(October 24, 2019)

Extent gain hugely above average for a 2nd day..

- Extent gain on this day 200k, 102 k more than the average gain of 98 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 2,369k, 709k (23.0%) less than the average gain to date of 3,077 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (62 days his year),
- Extent is 600 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 1,139 k (15.2%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 31.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 138 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.10 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.78 million km2.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

And once again......
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.8 to +3.2 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values.

Was this 2nd day of high gain the start of a significant increase in the rate of extent gains?
Is it a temporary event as strong winds shove ice into the Kara, Barents and Greenland seas?
Will the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS resist the freezing season ?[ /i]

EDIT - after looking at Aluminium's latest gif on the freezing thread, the strong refreeze does look pretty much all over the Arctic Ocean.
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by 227k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection   5,401,555 
______________________________________________________
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 02:02:49 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2777 on: October 26, 2019, 03:33:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,843,700 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,843,700    km2      
-1,091,812    km2   <   2010's average.
-400,381    km2   <   2018
-2,054,078    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    112    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__    103    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    18    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    36    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    21    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 112 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average of 125 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 1,091 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 400 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now MORE than 2019 by 95 k, so for the 3rd day 2019 area is once again lowest in the satellite record. It is still likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

On all measures of extent and area 2019 is now lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.8 to +3.2 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values.

NSIDC & JAXA daily extent gain now very high.
Is Area gain about to join a major refreeze?

______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2778 on: October 26, 2019, 03:49:45 PM »
So, as of a week ago, 2019 captured the last few JAXA daily records held by 2007, giving the 2010s a clean sweep. Interestingly, except for 2013 and 2014, the rebound years after 2012, every year of 2010s has some of the daily records. For now, 2016 has the most, but just about half those were after this date, so 2019 still has a chance of passing it.

Don't worry Juan, in a couple of days 2016 will be lowest on record. Any thing else would be surprising.

Yes there is huge freeze up happening. Its late but wouldnt be surprised to see us drop down the rankings by November 30th.

On the last two months of the year, 2019 will compete specially with 2016 (dark yellow or brownish line). If it stays close to 2016, from my point of view, it will be bad enough. 2016 was pretty much lower than any other year. There are some times when other years get close to 2016. 2012 (green), 2006 (blue) and 2017 (red) do that. So, the question is if 2019 will be on third-lowest for some time.

At the end of the year, all years are close to each other. 2007-2018 are on the 11.9-12.7M km2 range. I expect 2019 to be on that range too. It will surprise me if 2019 stays the lowest on December 31st.

It is different on volume. The lowest values are 2012 from August to October and then 2016-2017 (from November 2016 to July 2017). I wonder if the late refreeze means that 2019 becomes the lowest and then takes the lead.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 03:59:52 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2779 on: October 27, 2019, 04:44:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 26th, 2019:
     6,622,385 km2, an almost triple century increase of 289,282 km2.    :o Wow!
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2780 on: October 27, 2019, 08:46:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 26th, 2019:
     6,622,385 km2, an almost triple century increase of 289,282 km2.    :o Wow!
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

It's anyone's guess how this will turn out. However, I reminded viewers a few weeks ago that in 2017 the ice grew really fast early on. This prompted one contributor to opine that early freezing was a bad thing and would limit later ice growth because of all the heat trapped under the ice that now could not escape into the atmosphere. I reasoned that if that hypothesis were true then, then it must be equally true now when there is an abnormally slow refreeze this year. Application of the hypothesis to this year means more heat was released from the ocean than ever before, which will result in more ultimate refreezing this year.

This year will test the hypothesis. It's not mine. I'm just applying it to see if it's valid.
Feel The Burn!

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2781 on: October 27, 2019, 08:53:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 26th, 2019:
     6,622,385 km2, an almost triple century increase of 289,282 km2.    :o Wow!
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

What is going on with NSIDC, which is usually about 500,000 km2 higher than JAXA but has now fallen below?
Feel The Burn!

colchonero

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2782 on: October 27, 2019, 01:08:53 PM »
Is that a record increase? :o

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2783 on: October 27, 2019, 01:27:31 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,622,385 km2(October 26, 2019)

Three days of Extent gain very much above average and increasing to what looks like the third highest freezing season daily change from 2002 to now. for a 2nd day. (the highest a fraction more at 303 k).

- Extent gain on this day 289k, 176 k more than the average gain of 113 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 2,658k, 532k (16.7%) less than the average gain to date of 3,190 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (63 days his year),
- Extent is 560 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 961 k (12.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 32.4% (, 1/3rd) of extent gain for the the season done, 137 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.27 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.60 million km2.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this surge in extent gains.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

And once again......
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.4 down to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.

However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 3 days of  extreme extent gains continue? Is it the start of a significant increase in the rate of extent gains? Or is it a temporary event ?[ /i]

__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, the 2019 October average will be a record low by a much reduced 193k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection    5,435,693   
______________________________________________________
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MrGreeny

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2784 on: October 27, 2019, 01:44:47 PM »
Damn that was a huge jump.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2785 on: October 27, 2019, 01:57:54 PM »
...
However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
...

Hint.
No me lo trago

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2786 on: October 27, 2019, 02:30:51 PM »
...
However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
...
Hint.
That's where it happened, not why such a sudden increase
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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2787 on: October 27, 2019, 02:43:32 PM »
In my current understanding the why would be:

 A very shallow ocean has exhausted the heat acquired during summer, the ess.

And,

That space is almost surrounded by ice, improving the conditions for ice formation.

And,

It is record late in the season thus this freezing is happening with even less solar input than usual. I expect more of this fast extent growth soon. The thickness will depend of the fdd's we get after the ocean is covered.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2788 on: October 27, 2019, 03:07:01 PM »
Damn that was a huge jump.

You sound disappointed.  Isn’t that a good sign?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2789 on: October 27, 2019, 03:10:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,991,874 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,991,874    km2      
-1,066,146    km2   <   2010's average.
-428,409    km2   <   2018
-2,024,789    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    148    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__    136    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    45    k   gain
Central Arctic_    29    k   gain
         
Kara_________    10    k   gain
Laptev_______    24    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 148 k, 25 k MORE than the 2010's average of 123 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 1,06 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 428 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now MORE than 2019 by 45 k, so for the 3rd day 2019 area is once again lowest in the satellite record. It is still likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains pretty much guarantee very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily extent gain moderates.

On all measures of extent and area 2019 still  lowest in the satellite record, but area maybe not tomorrow.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.8 to +3.2 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values - But this quickly?

NSIDC & JAXA daily extent gain now very high.
Has Area gain joined a major refreeze?

______________________________________________
ps: The next post will look at where the ice gains are happening in a bit more detail.
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binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2790 on: October 27, 2019, 03:22:48 PM »
Damn that was a huge jump.

You sound disappointed.  Isn’t that a good sign?

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2791 on: October 27, 2019, 03:49:24 PM »
Damn that was a huge jump.

You sound disappointed.  Isn’t that a good sign?

ofc it is a good sign, I was amazed by the sudden increase.

gandul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2792 on: October 27, 2019, 03:53:45 PM »
...
However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
...
Hint.
That's where it happened, not why such a sudden increase
I commented on an Aleph Null animation three days ago that the winds were containing refreeze over ESS. It has been on the brink of sudden expansion for a number of days now. Today and yesterday winds abated and refreezing has just boomed.

Not trying to teach you anything, it just happens I’ve been following the ice bridge formation from continent to ice pack the last few days
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Oyvind Johnsen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2793 on: October 27, 2019, 03:56:03 PM »
...
However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
...
Hint.
That's where it happened, not why such a sudden increase

A lot of open sea suddenly got included in the extent measurement, because the gap was closed? (The last almost-triple-century gain.)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2794 on: October 27, 2019, 04:58:00 PM »
NSIDC Area & Extent Gains - some graphs & stuff

Central Arctic Sea. Gains are mostly invisible as extent is 99% of maximum, and area gains are about compaction.
29 k area gain on this day. Despite this year being a 2nd lowest minimum, sea ice extent has been mostly at and around the 2000's average - pretty much like 15 years ago. sea ice area is now also at the 2000's average, as nearly complete ice cover is formed. 

Barents Sea Last year was all about Atlantification - this year not. The Barents Sea melted late and is refreezing early.
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binntho

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2795 on: October 27, 2019, 05:08:25 PM »
...
However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
...

Hint.


As gandul pointed out, the winds over the ESS have dropped in the last couple of days, although as Archimid pointed out, the seas there are shallow and perhaps their heat content is about finished? Nullschool shows the temps in the refreeze areas dropping from around -4 to closer to -10, a clear indicator that freezing is ongoing.

But then again, the EES is really just following (and slightly below) the 2016 trajectory, and that year stalled big in that particular sea shortly afterwards. It will be interesting to see if 2019 does something similar, in which case the overall last place might well be preserved!

Next up to start refreezing is the Chuckhi but starting tomorrow, a small near-tornado is expecting to punch it's way up the Bering strait before churning the seas for a few days in the Chuckhi and then making it's way east towards the Beaufort. Enough to stall the refreeze in those two seas perhaps? But not enough to affect the ESS I'd think.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2796 on: October 27, 2019, 05:48:00 PM »
...
However, what the trigger has been for this major extent gain in the last 3 days is a mystery to me.
...
Hint.
That's where it happened, not why such a sudden increase
I commented on an Aleph Null animation three days ago that the winds were containing refreeze over ESS. It has been on the brink of sudden expansion for a number of days now. Today and yesterday winds abated and refreezing has just boomed.

Not trying to teach you anything, it just happens I’ve been following the ice bridge formation from continent to ice pack the last few days

Thank you for your insight and explanation

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2797 on: October 27, 2019, 05:58:28 PM »
Is that a record increase? :o
I search for increases of more than 250 * 103 km2 on the years 1989-2019.

The highest increase is 395K km2 on March 1st, 2012, but that increase happened after a -209K km2 drop on February 29th, 2012. IMHO, there has to be some mistake or a sensor problem on that date.

All the other increases are on October. What is remarkable on the 2019 increase, is that it is the one that happened on late October.

I didn't analyze increases on 2 or 3 days period, that could be interesting.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2798 on: October 27, 2019, 06:16:24 PM »
Well, this year has been lowest for better than one day out of six, even if we don't get another record anymore.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2799 on: October 27, 2019, 07:11:49 PM »
NSIDC Area & Extent Gains - some graphs & stuff (continued)

First attachment compares extent 23 Oct and 26 Oct. The area circled in red the prime candidate for rapid icing over?

Pacification


Perhaps the advance of Pacification this year has set up a very fast refreeze.

Beaufort Sea Sea ice extent reduced very early but then stayed below but fairly close to the 2010's average. But note how recent seas ice gain is at the eastern end bordering the CAA.

The Chukchi Sea has still not commenced its overdue rapid freeze. There is the Laptev Bite, perhaps a Chukchi BIG bite is developing.

The ESS has commenced its overdue freeze. But note how that gain is mostly on the western side bordering the Laptev - leaving the Chukchi Big Bite almost untouched.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)