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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2800 on: October 28, 2019, 04:46:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 27th, 2019:
     6,833,569 km2, a double century increase of 211,184 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2801 on: October 28, 2019, 11:23:16 AM »
What a climb. Half a million in 2 days and 2nd place. The Arctic means business huh. Will the big bite start to freeze up after Siberian chunk?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2802 on: October 28, 2019, 11:24:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 6,833,569 km2(October 27, 2019)

Four days of Extent gain extremely above average, on this day slightly moderated.

- Extent gain on this day 211k, 89 k more than the average gain of 122 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 2,869k, 443k (13.4 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,312 k.
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016,
- Extent is 556 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 864 k (11.2%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 33.7% (> 1/3rd) of extent gain for the the season done, 136 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.36 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.51 million km2.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this surge in extent gains.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase.

And once again......
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.2 down to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to start happenng this quickly.

Will these 4 days of  extreme extent gains continue? Is it the start of a longer-term significant increase in the rate of extent gains? Or is it a temporary event ?[ /i]

__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, the 2019 October average will be a record low by a much reduced 178 k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,450,118  km2
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2803 on: October 28, 2019, 02:16:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,156,743  km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,156,743    km2      
-1,021,416    km2   <   2010's average.
-430,829    km2   <   2018
-1,982,626    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    165    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    150    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    18    k   gain
East Siberian__    56    k   gain
Central Arctic_    24    k   gain
         
Kara_________    16    k   gain
Laptev_______    23    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 165 k, 45 k MORE than the 2010's average of 120 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 1,021 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 431 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 32 k, so  2019 area is once again back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains pretty much guarantee very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily extent gain moderates.

On all measures of extent and area 2019 NO LONGER lowest in the satellite record, but area maybe not for some time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.2 down to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding to the Greenland and CAA shores that are already ice-covered.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values - But this quickly?

NSIDC & JAXA daily extent gain now very high.
Has Area gain joined a major longer-term refreeze?

______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2804 on: October 29, 2019, 04:44:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 28th, 2019:
     7,062,739 km2, a double century increase of 229,170 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2805 on: October 29, 2019, 07:09:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 28th, 2019:
     7,062,739 km2, a double century increase of 229,170 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

I'd say Lord Vader called this one!
Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2806 on: October 29, 2019, 11:07:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,062,739 km2(October 28, 2019)

Five days of Extent gain extremely above average totaling just 5k short of 1.1 million km2. Maybe some sort of a record (until tomorrow?).

- Extent gain on this day 229k, 126 k more than the average gain of 103 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,099k, 316k (9.3 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,415 k.
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (222k lower),
- Extent is 480 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 725 k (9.3%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 34.7% (> 1/3rd) of extent gain for the the season done, 136 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.49 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.39 million km2.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this current surge in extent gains.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase.


Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.2 down to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent must play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to start happening this quickly.

Will these 5 days of  extreme extent gains continue?
Is it the start of a longer-term even more significant increase in the rate of extent gains?
Or is it a temporary event ?[ /i]

__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, the 2019 October average will be a record low by an even more reduced 162 k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,466,410 km2
______________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2807 on: October 29, 2019, 02:31:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,343,045 km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,343,045    km2      
-953,076    km2   <   2010's average.
-403,139    km2   <   2018
-1,922,501    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    186    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    172    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    28    k   gain
East Siberian__    70    k   gain
Central Arctic_    23    k   gain
         
Kara_________    20    k   gain
Laptev_______    26    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 186 k, 68 k MORE than the 2010's average of 118 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 953 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 403 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly, moderating the reduction in the difference.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 139 k, so  2019 area is once again very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains pretty much guarantee very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily extent gain moderates.

On all measures of extent and area 2019 NO LONGER lowest in the satellite record, and area maybe not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.3 down to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole expanding to the Greenland and CAA shores that are already ice-covered.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values - But this quickly is quite remarkable.
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2808 on: October 29, 2019, 04:02:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,343,045 km2

Some graphs (including extent graphs)


Despite being close to full up ice, the Central Arctic Sea continues to fill up somewhat faster & earlier than in recent years.

The East Siberian Sea, in contrast, has been very late in refreezing, and is filling up in the middle and from the Russian shore. However, the gifs from Aluminium on the freezing thread show that the Pacific end is still resisting the freeze-up.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2809 on: October 30, 2019, 04:43:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 29th, 2019:
     7,217,244 km2, a century increase of 154,505 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Phil42

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2810 on: October 30, 2019, 08:06:16 AM »
I attach three tables which show the number of days sea ice extent has been below 5M, 6M and 7M km2 around the minimum in a year.
  • 2019 extent was < 5M km2 for 64 days, which is the second highest amount, just 1 day behind 2012.
  • 2019 extent was < 6M km2 for 86 days, which beats the old record of 77 days set by 2007 & 2012 by a big margin.
  • 2019 extent was < 7M km2 for 100 days, which is the tied record together with 2016.

El Cid

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2811 on: October 30, 2019, 09:29:32 AM »
Interesting tables, Phil!

thanks

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2812 on: October 30, 2019, 12:13:24 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,217,244 km2(October 29, 2019)

After five days of extent gain extremely above average totaling just 5k short of 1.1 million km2, on this day extent gain still very much above average  but somewhat lower.

- Extent gain on this day 155k, 67 k more than the average gain of 88 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,253k, 250 k (7.1 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,503 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (344 k lower),
- Extent is 357 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 653 k (8.3%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 35.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 135 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.56 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.32 million km2.

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this current surge in extent gains.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.2 down to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 6 days of  extreme extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?


__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain in the last 2 days of October average, the 2019 October average will be a record low by an even more reduced 156 k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,472,861 km2
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2813 on: October 30, 2019, 02:36:30 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,515,707  km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,515,707    km2      
-899,633    km2   <   2010's average.
-369,710    km2   <   2018
-1,873,491    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    173    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__    161    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -11    k   loss
CAA_________    22    k   gain
East Siberian__    72    k   gain
Central Arctic_    17    k   gain
         
Kara_________    27    k   gain
Laptev_______    32    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 173 k, 54 k MORE than the 2010's average of 119 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 900 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 370 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly, moderating the reduction in the difference.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 255 k, so  2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains pretty much guarantee very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily gain moderates.

On all measures of extent and area 2019 NO LONGER lowest in the satellite record, and area maybe not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +3.2 down to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So not a surprise that 2019 sea ice area & extent played catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values - But this quickly was and is quite remarkable.

What happens next? Not a clue.
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Oyvind Johnsen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2814 on: October 30, 2019, 06:56:07 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,217,244 km2(October 29, 2019)

It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly harder not to believe a record low maximum is highly likely, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this current surge in extent gains.

____________________________________________________________

I fully agree that it is too early to make a projection - but nevertheless I find your projections very interesting to follow! I also notice that if you look at the three years with the lowest extent right now (apart from this year, namely 2012, 2016 og 2018), remaining gain as in those years will not lead to a record low maximum in 2020.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2815 on: October 31, 2019, 05:04:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 30th, 2019:
     7,376,169 km2, a century increase of 158,925 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2816 on: October 31, 2019, 12:33:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,376,169 km2(October 30, 2019)

After five days of extent gain extremely above average totaling just 5k short of 1.1 million km2, on these last 2 days extent gain still very much above average but somewhat lower.

- Extent gain on this day 159k, 56 k more than the average gain of 103 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,412k, 194 k (5.4 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,606 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (344 k lower),
- Extent is 360 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 596 k (7.5%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 36.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 134 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.61 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.27 million km2.

Even though it is early in the freezing season to make such a projection, a record low maximum is very possible, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this current surge in extent gains.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.9 down to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 7 days of  very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?


__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain in the last day of October average, the 2019 October average will be a record low by an even more reduced 152 k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,476,453 km2
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2817 on: October 31, 2019, 02:14:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,672,345 km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,672,345    km2      
-862,102    km2   <   2010's average.
-351,475    km2   <   2018
-1,832,653    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    157    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    148    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss
CAA_________    13    k   gain
East Siberian__    70    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________    37    k   gain
Laptev_______    34    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 157 k, 38 k MORE than the 2010's average of 119 k.

Still very high, but down a bit

_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 862 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 351 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly, moderating the reduction in the difference.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 384 k, so  2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains are continuing, which pretty much guarantee very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily gain moderates.

On all measures of extent and area 2019 NO LONGER lowest in the satellite record, and area (and extent) maybe not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.9 down to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So not a surprise that 2019 sea ice area & extent played catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values - But this quickly was and is quite remarkable.

What happens next? Not a clue.
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2818 on: October 31, 2019, 03:07:18 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,672,345 km2

Where the rapid refreeze is happening


Basically the seas along the Russian Shore & the Central Arctic Sea.

The Central Arctic Sea has been rapidly freezing over since the beginning of September, with area now above the 2000's average for the day. Just another 230k to go. (Extent is 99.2% complete -  just another 26k to go). So this sea is unlikely to contribute to further rapid freeze.

As regards the Russian Seas, after an extended open water season,
- first the ESS (except the Pacific end),
- then the Laptev (goodbye to the bite),
- and now the Kara
have entered a period of rapid freeze.  The hole in the middle of the ESS will surely fill up very quickly, as will the Laptev. To me, the questions now are..
- will the Kara freeze quickly push into the Atlantic side,
- will the ESS freeze move quickly eastwards towards the Pacific.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2819 on: October 31, 2019, 04:02:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,672,345 km2

Where the rapid refreeze is NOT happening


The Chukchi Sea is still the poster child for Pacification, already at a record length of the open water season. My guess is it will refreeze, but the question is how long will this be slow until resistance becomes futile.

The Beaufort at the CAA end froze rapidly, but freeze up seems reluctant to move westwards and southwards towards the Pacific Gateway - (the Bering Strait). (As is the ESS freeze slow to extend south and East).
___________________________
Meanwhile, away from the Arctic Ocean, the Baffin Sea looks like a record breaker for the length of the open water season. How long will it last?

And the Hudson Sea has been slow to refreeze after being early to minimum. 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2820 on: November 01, 2019, 05:16:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 31st, 2019:
     7,524,644 km2, a century increase of 148,475 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2821 on: November 01, 2019, 09:50:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,524,644 km2(October 31, 2019)

What a difference made by 8 days of extreme extent gains totalling 1.56 million km2, 0.7 million km2 more than the 10 year average for those 8 days.

- Extent gain on this day 148k, 37 k more than the average gain of 111 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,560k, 156 k (4.2 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,717 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (558 k lower),
- Extent is 351 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 560 k (6.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 37.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 132 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.65 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.23 million km2.

Even though it is early in the freezing season to make such a projection, a record low maximum is possible, even though by a much smaller amount, and despite this current surge in extent gains.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.3 down to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 8 days of  very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?


__________________________________________________
ps:- The 2019 October average is a record low by 151 k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Actual + Projection  5,477,673 km2
______________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2822 on: November 01, 2019, 02:41:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 5,832,561 km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,832,561    km2      
-823,695    km2   <   2010's average.
-326,669    km2   <   2018
-1,784,440    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    160    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas__    151    k   gain
Other Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -12    k   loss
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    73    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    44    k   gain
Laptev_______    38    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 160 k, 38 k MORE than the 2010's average of 122 k.

Still very high.

_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 824 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 327 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly, moderating the reduction in the difference.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 505 k, so  2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains are continuing, which pretty much guarantee very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily gain moderates.

2019 not lowest in the satellite record, and  looks likely it will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.3 down to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 8 days of  very high gains continue?
Or will gains return to the average or even below?

______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2823 on: November 01, 2019, 03:14:05 PM »
ESS and Laptev have now 4 times more ice than mid-October, Kara has 8 times more ice area...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2824 on: November 02, 2019, 04:52:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 1st, 2019:
     7,672,051 km2, a century increase of 147,407 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2825 on: November 02, 2019, 08:55:23 AM »
The distance to 2012 is shrinking rapidly. Is it time for a third place in the ranking list in the next week?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2826 on: November 02, 2019, 09:41:21 AM »
Once Laptev Sea has frozen over we will very likely see a big slowdown in externt increases. Main difference right now is in Kara Sea. OTOH, Chukchi Sea continues to be at record low levels.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2827 on: November 02, 2019, 12:33:16 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,672,051 km2(November 1, 2019)

Another days of high extent gain

- Extent gain on this day 147k, 44 k more than the average gain of 103 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,708k, 112 k (2.9 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,820 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (638 k lower),
- Extent is 358 k less than 2018,
- Extent is 516 k (6.3%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 38.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 131 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.69 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.18 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase, and 2019 extent will slide down the rankings.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.0 down to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 9 days of very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?

__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2828 on: November 02, 2019, 02:37:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,002,291 km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,002,291    km2      
-777,920    km2   <   2010's average.
-293,102    km2   <   2018
-1,720,017    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    170    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    160    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    73    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    47    k   gain
Laptev_______    44    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 170 k, 46 k MORE than the 2010's average of 124 k.

Still very high, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 164 k of that total.

_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 778 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 293 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly, moderating the reduction in the difference.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 617 k, so  2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high daily extent gains are continuing, which pretty much guarantees very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily gain moderates.

2019 not lowest in the satellite record, and  looks likely it will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.0 down to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 9 days of  very high gains continue?
Or will gains return to the average or even below?

______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2829 on: November 02, 2019, 04:03:34 PM »
OPEN WATER GRAPHS  - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)

These graphs look at how much open water in the various seas of the Arctic.

Total Arctic Seas

The average for the year in the 1980's was just 40%. It is now creeping to above 50%.

For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has risen from 60-65% to 75-80%.

The early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from 40% to a bit over 50%.
__________________________________________________
High Arctic Seas (Central Arctic, CAA, Beaufort, Chukchi ESS, Laptev, Kara
i.e. excluding peripheral seas generally farther south and/or open ocean borders 


The average for the year in the 1980's was just 15%. It is now creeping up to around 25%.

For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has risen from 30-35% to 50-60%.

The early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from 10-15% to a bit circa 25%.
__________________________________________________
This overall average disguises large variations in individual seas. Over the next hours (days?) I will post graphs by individual seas.
_____________________________________________________________
Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July).

Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).

This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2830 on: November 02, 2019, 04:39:36 PM »
OPEN WATER GRAPHS  - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)

These graphs look at open water trends in the various seas of the Arctic since 1980.
__________________________________________________________
Canadian Seas - influenced by the land masses of Canada & Greenland
Very slow changes over time.

Baffin Sea

- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was 60 to 70%. It has marginally increased to a bit above 70% .

However, in 2019 melt was early,
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has risen from circa 95% to this year virtually 100%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from 60-70% to a a record high in 2019 of nearly 80%.
__________________________________________________
Canadian Archipelago
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 45%. It has barely increased to around 50%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the highly variable open water percentage has risen from circa 40-60% to 50-70%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from circa 20% to circa 25%.
__________________________________________________
Hudson Bay
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 20%. It has barely increased to around 25%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct in the 1989's some years were less than 95% open water. Close or at to 100% is now the norm.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from circa 40% to circa 50%.
i.e. a small but significant increase in AWP.
_____________________________________________________________
Quote
Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July). The earlier the melt, the m the more the Albebo Warming Potential (AWP) can develop, which may be one of the keys to the Arctic going ice-free.

Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).

This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2831 on: November 02, 2019, 05:30:00 PM »
OPEN WATER GRAPHS  - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)

These graphs look at open water trends in the various seas of the Arctic since 1980.
__________________________________________________________
THE PACIFIC GATEWAY  - where Sea Ice Loss is perhaps most dramatic

Bering Sea

- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 85%. It has increased since 2016 to bit above 90% .
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has always been 100%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from 90-95% to very nearly 100%.
- Winter sea ice (Feb-April) has risen from 60-70% in the 1980's to nearly 90% in 2019
_______________________________________________________________________
Chukchi Sea
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 60 %. Since 2016 it has risen to over 70%,
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the highly variable open water percentage has risen from circa 50-70% to 85-90% since 2016.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from a highly variable 15-30% to a record high in 2019 of nearly 50%., i.e. a significant increase in AWP.

Note also a recent small but significant increase in open water in the maximum sea ice area months of Feb-April.
__________________________________________________________________________
Quote
Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July). The earlier the melt, the m the more the Albebo Warming Potential (AWP) can develop, which may be one of the keys to the Arctic going ice-free.

Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).

This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

aslan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2832 on: November 02, 2019, 08:00:40 PM »
Daily gain 170 k, 46 k MORE than the 2010's average of 124 k.

Still very high, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 164 k of that total.

_______________________________________________


I think this is an important point. The biggest difference with 2016 is the Kara Sea and to a lower extent the ESS. Kara Sea has seen quite unexpectedly high sea ice gain and is ahead of the most recent years (2016 and after I mean). Big gain in ESS and Laptev is a fatality, nothing can make for shallow waters and fresh water. But now that the sea ice has hit the hard land, ESS and Laptev can't see any more gain, this two seas are already near the 100% mark. If Kara sea is not able to sustain the surge in gain, it is likely that a stall in Arctic sea ice extent will happen. As for now, the great battle of this winter for Chuckchi and Barents sea is starting, and easy ice gain are likely over. I am quite ready to bet that Kara Sea will not be able to sustain the pace, and that we are going to see stall shocking the extent growth like in 2016. The biggest hope for now I think is the Beaufort Sea, the only sea which can keep things up for now I think.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2833 on: November 03, 2019, 04:43:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 2nd, 2019:
     7,804,258 km2, a century increase of 132,207 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2834 on: November 03, 2019, 01:20:51 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,804,258 km2(November 2, 2019)

Am I seeing a persistent gradual reduction in daily extent gain, and will that reduction continue?

- Extent gain on this day 132k, 21 k more than the average gain of 111 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,840k, 91 k (2.3 %) less than the average gain to date of 3,931 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (637 k lower),
- Extent is 358 k less than 2018, and
- only 24k below 2012,
- Extent is 500 k (6.0%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 39.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 130 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.72 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.16 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

2016 saw low to average extent gains over the next month. If current high extent gains continue, obviously 2019 extent's difference with 2016 will increase, and 2019 extent will slide down the rankings.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.0 down to +1.4 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 10 days of very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?

__________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2835 on: November 03, 2019, 04:04:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,200,326  km2
                                 
 Total Area 6,200,326    km2      
-702,546    km2   <   2010's average.
-248,994    km2   <   2018
-1,616,621    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    198    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas__    189    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    67    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    59    k   gain
Laptev_______    53    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 198 k, 75k MORE than the 2010's average of 123 k.

Still very high, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 178 k of that total.


While JAXA extent gains moderate, NSIDC area and extent gains accelerate.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 702 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 249 k, and daily 2018 area continues to increase rapidly, moderating the reduction in the difference.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 749 k, so  2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high NSIDC daily extent gains are continuing, which pretty much guarantees very high 5-day average area gains for the next 3 days even if daily gain moderates.

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +2.0 down to +1.4 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 10 days of  very high gains continue?
Or will gains return to the average or even below? (Not for a few days at least)

______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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colchonero

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2836 on: November 03, 2019, 06:09:22 PM »
Can someone post or give a link to NSIDC daily extent numbers? (not 5 day average)

blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2837 on: November 03, 2019, 06:36:19 PM »
Record low sea-ice extent for October in the Arctic

Quote
October 2019 sets a new record low for October mean sea-ice extent in the Arctic, thereby joining April 2019 as new record holders from this year, and with the May to August all being second-lowest for their months.

Link >> https://cryo.met.no/en/node/274

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2838 on: November 03, 2019, 07:37:51 PM »
Can someone post or give a link to NSIDC daily extent numbers? (not 5 day average)
Go to.....
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

page-down once or twice to the spreadsheet options.

choose optiom 1 - All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily (Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)

The file has one day and 5 day for Arctic & Antarctic

Any spreadsheet programme (including rubbish like Google Sheets and good freebies like LibreOffice) will open it.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2839 on: November 03, 2019, 08:11:17 PM »
Continued from yesterday

OPEN WATER GRAPHS  - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)

These graphs look at open water trends in the various seas of the Arctic since 1980.
__________________________________________________________
The Beaufort and the ESS have always been lumped together as part of the Arctic Basin. But in recent years they appear to be influenced by the opening of the Pacific Gateway, as is very apparent in the current freezing season.

The Beaufort is freezing up first at the Canadian and CAA end, sea ice only gradually extending westward towards Alaska and the Bering Strait.

Similarly, the ESS has frozen up in its central portion, and only now is sea ice extending eastwards to Wrangel Island and the Bering Strait.

so here is the data....
THE PACIFIC GATEWAY  continued- where Sea Ice Loss is perhaps most dramatic

Beaufort Sea

- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was 10-20%. It has increased since 2007 to a more variable 20-35% .
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980s was a highly variable 20-45%. In recent years the range has been in an even greater range from 40 to 85%, in 2019 just over 70%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from a range of 10 to 20%% to a more variable range of 20% to just over 40%. 2019 at 40%. AWP was therefore very high this year in this sea.
- Winter open water (Feb-April) is unchanged at well under 10%
_______________________________________________________________________
Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS)
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 10 %. Since 2007 it has risen to over 20% in nearly all years.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has risen from circa 15% for most of the 1980's to a highly variable 70% to 90% since 2007. In 2019 nearly 90%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from around 10% to around 20%, in 2019 25%[/b]
- in winter (Feb-April) open water is well under 10%
__________________________________________________________________________
Quote
Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July). The earlier the melt, the m the more the Albebo Warming Potential (AWP) can develop, which may be one of the keys to the Arctic going ice-free.

Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).

This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
[/quote]
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2840 on: November 03, 2019, 09:45:27 PM »
Continued from yesterday

OPEN WATER GRAPHS  - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)

These graphs look at open water trends in the various seas of the Arctic since 1980.
__________________________________________________________

THE ATLANTIC FRONT  - where Sea Ice Loss is progressing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean

Barents Sea

- The highly variable average open water for the year in the 1980's was 60 to 80%. It has increased since 2007 to a variable 80 to over 90%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980s was a variable 90 to 100%. Since 2007  the normal is 100% open water.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from a range of 60 to 80% to 85 to 95%. 2019 at nearly 90%
- Winter open water (Feb-April) the open water percentage in the 1980s was a highly variable 25 to 55%. This has steadily increased over years to an open water range of 60 to 85% in the 2010's

The Barents Sea is now an open water sea that sometimes has some ice in it. It is no longer an ice desert

_______________________________________________________________________
Greenland Sea (ESS)
This sea is heavily influenced by the ice being imported from the Central Arctic down the Fram Strait.
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 60% %. It is now around 70%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has reminded stable at  80 to 95%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from around 60% to around 70%, in 2019 just under 70%[/b]
- in winter (Feb-April) open water in the 1980's was a highly variable 35 to 55%.  Since 2016  around 55 to 65%.
_______________________________________________________________________
Kara Sea
As the Barents Sea has become mostly ice free for most of the year, sea ice loss has increased in the Kara Sea.

- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was a bit below 30% . It is now a highly variable 35 to 55%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980's was a highly variable 55 to 95%.  Since 2007 the open water percentage is much more stable at usually around 95%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from around 20 to 30% to around 40 to 60%, in 2019 just under 50%[/b]
- in the early winter freeze (Nov to Jan) open water up to the mid -1980's was stable at around 10 %.  It is now highly variable, since 2016 in the range from just under 10 % to over 50%.
- in winter (Feb-April) open water up to 2011 was stable at around 5%.  Since 2016 there is a much higher variation though still under 10% in 2019.
_______________________________________________________________________
Laptev Sea
As the Kara Sea has become ice free for longer, there are signs this is affecting the Laptev, though a warmer Siberia might be more important.

- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was a bit below 20% . It is now at around 30%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980's was a 40 to 50%.  Since 2007 the open water percentage is much more variable at anything from 60 to 95%, in 2019 just under 90%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from under 20% to to around 20 to 40%, in 2019 just under 40%[/b]
- in winter (Feb-April) open water remains a stable 5%.
__________________________________________________________________________
Quote
Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July). The earlier the melt, the m the more the Albebo Warming Potential (AWP) can develop, which may be one of the keys to the Arctic going ice-free.

Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).

This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
_________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2841 on: November 04, 2019, 04:42:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 3rd, 2019:
     7,936,939 km2, a century increase of 132,681 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2842 on: November 04, 2019, 02:38:32 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,936,939 km2(November 3, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 133k, 28 k more than the average gain of 105 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 3,973 k, 64 k (1.6 %) less than the average gain to date of 4,036 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (634 k lower),
- Extent is 484 k less than 2018, and
- only 23k below 2012,
- Extent is 478 k (5.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 41.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 129 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.74 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.14 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

If current high extent gains continue, 2019 extent will slide down the rankings.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +1.9 down to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 11 days of very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?

__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2843 on: November 04, 2019, 03:48:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,430,854   km2
                                 
 Total Area         
 6,430,854    km2      
-597,380    km2   <   2010's average.
-210,090    km2   <   2018
-1,476,449    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    231    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    222    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    22    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    68    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    60    k   gain
Laptev_______    52    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 231 k, 106k MORE than the 2010's average of 125 k.

Even more extremely high, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 180k of that total.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze


While JAXA extent and NSIDC gains look like moderating, NSIDC area gain accelerates.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 597 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 210 k.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 886 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

Very high NSIDC daily extent gain less than 100k on this day, which may mean area gains may moderate in the next few days.

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies circa +1.9 down to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So  2019 sea ice would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. It has happened very quickly.

Will these 11 days of  very high gains continue?
Or will gains return to the average or even below?

______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2844 on: November 04, 2019, 05:37:20 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 7,804,258 km2(November 2, 2019)

Am I seeing a persistent gradual reduction in daily extent gain, and will that reduction continue?

<snippage>
For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So eventually 2019 sea ice extent would play catch-up to get closer to the trend values. I did not expect it to happen this quickly.

Will these 10 days of very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?

2016 as I recall had a huge spike in cyclonic activity along the east coast of both Asia and North America which I think was key in slowing the refreeze.  I think for that reason 2016 will persist as an anomaly for some time, much as 2012 has.

Absent that vigorous activity, I do think the rapid extent gains will continue over the colder near-continental seas in particular - ESS, Laptev, Kara, CAA, Hudson, and Okhotsk.  However once that real estate is used up, I think we quite possibly will see a stall as the heat content in the Pacific side in particular is so huge that even without imported heat from further south it will resist freezing and provide its own local feedbacks to slow heat loss as well.
This space for Rent.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2845 on: November 04, 2019, 07:23:25 PM »
Continued from yesterday

OPEN WATER GRAPHS  - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)

Last graph looking at open water trends in the various seas of the Arctic since 1980.
__________________________________________________________
The Central Arctic Sea (NSIDC definition 3.22 million Km2 area )


- The average open water for the year until 2006 was 5%. It has increased since 2007 to a more variable circa 10%
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage until 2006 was in the range of under 10% to under 20%. In recent years the range has been from 20 to 30%, in 2019 just over 20%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from mostly under 5% to approaching 10%, 2019 at just under 10%.
- Winter open water (Feb-April) is unchanged at mostly well under 5%

When looking at area (and extent) the Central Arctic Sea has been only marginally impacted by AGW and consequent sea ice loss.

VOLUME is a different story

__________________________________________________________________________
Quote
Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July). The earlier the melt, the m the more the Albebo Warming Potential (AWP) can develop, which may be one of the keys to the Arctic going ice-free.

Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).

This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2846 on: November 05, 2019, 04:47:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 4th, 2019:
     8,053,051 km2, a century increase of 116,112 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2847 on: November 05, 2019, 10:56:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,053,051 km2(November 4, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 116k, 25 k more than the average gain of 91 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,089 k, 39 k (0.9 %) less than the average gain to date of 4,128 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (611 k lower),
- Extent is 524 k less than 2018, and
- only 6k below 2012,
- Extent is 456 k (5.4%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 41.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 128 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.77 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.11 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

If current high extent gains continue, 2019 extent will slide down the rankings. However, extent gains show signs of moderating.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range  +1.4  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
Now high 2019 extent gains have made the late freeze mostly history,  will these 12 days of very high extent gains continue? 
Or will extent gains return to the average or even below?

__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2848 on: November 05, 2019, 03:38:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,655,878   km2
                                 
 Total Area         
 6,655,878    km2      
-499,614    km2   <   2010's average.
-192,068    km2   <   2018
-1,342,512    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    225    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    216    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    30    k   gain
CAA_________    15    k   gain
East Siberian__    58    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    51    k   gain
Laptev_______    47    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 225 k, 98k MORE than the 2010's average of 127 k.

Extremely high yet again, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 155k of that total.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze (30k gain today)


While JAXA extent and NSIDC gains look like moderating, NSIDC area gain accelerates.
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Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 500 k.

2018 is more than 2019 by 192 k.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 993 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

NSIDC daily extent gain less than 100k for a 2nd day, which may mean area gains may moderate in the next few days.

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
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Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range  +1.4  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
Now high 2019 sea ice gains have made the late freeze mostly history,  will these 12 days of very high extent gains continue?
Or will sea ice gains return to the average or even below?.

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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2849 on: November 06, 2019, 05:44:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 5th, 2019:
     8,146,090 km2, an increase of 93,039 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.