Continued from yesterday
OPEN WATER GRAPHS - updated with the 3 month minimum ice area data (August to October)
These graphs look at open water trends in the various seas of the Arctic since 1980.
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THE ATLANTIC FRONT - where Sea Ice Loss is progressing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean
Barents Sea- The highly variable average open water for the year in the 1980's was 60 to 80%. It has increased since 2007 to a variable 80 to over 90%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980s was a variable 90 to 100%. Since 2007 the normal is 100% open water.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from a range of 60 to 80% to 85 to 95%. 2019 at nearly 90%
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Winter open water (Feb-April) the open water percentage in the 1980s was a highly variable 25 to 55%. This has steadily increased over years to an open water range of 60 to 85% in the 2010's
The Barents Sea is now an open water sea that sometimes has some ice in it. It is no longer an ice desert_______________________________________________________________________
Greenland Sea (ESS)This sea is heavily influenced by the ice being imported from the Central Arctic down the Fram Strait.
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was circa 60% %. It is now around 70%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage has reminded stable at 80 to 95%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from around 60% to around 70%, in 2019 just under 70%[/b]
- in winter (Feb-April) open water in the 1980's was a highly variable 35 to 55%. Since 2016 around 55 to 65%.
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Kara Sea As the Barents Sea has become mostly ice free for most of the year, sea ice loss has increased in the Kara Sea.
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was a bit below 30% . It is now a highly variable 35 to 55%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980's was a highly variable 55 to 95%. Since 2007 the open water percentage is much more stable at usually around 95%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from around 20 to 30% to around 40 to 60%, in 2019 just under 50%[/b]
- in the early winter freeze (Nov to Jan) open water up to the mid -1980's was stable at around 10 %. It is now highly variable, since 2016 in the range from just under 10 % to over 50%.
- in winter (Feb-April) open water up to 2011 was stable at around 5%. Since 2016 there is a much higher variation though still under 10% in 2019.
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Laptev Sea As the Kara Sea has become ice free for longer, there are signs this is affecting the Laptev, though a warmer Siberia might be more important.
- The average open water for the year in the 1980's was a bit below 20% . It is now at around 30%.
- For the three minimum ice months Aug-Oct the open water percentage in the 1980's was a 40 to 50%. Since 2007 the open water percentage is much more variable at anything from 60 to 95%, in 2019 just under 90%.
- In the early melting season (May-July) the open water percentage has risen from under 20% to to around 20 to 40%, in 2019 just under 40%[/b]
- in winter (Feb-April) open water remains a stable 5%.
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Notes:-
I made these graphs to track the progress of the gradual transformation of the Arctic Seas from Ice Desert to Open Water environment. Looking at longer periods, e.g. 3 months, one can see, e.g. how the open water season is lengthening (August to October) and melt starting earlier (May to July). The earlier the melt, the m the more the Albebo Warming Potential (AWP) can develop, which may be one of the keys to the Arctic going ice-free.
Calculation
The data is shown is calculated from the average sea ice area for each period divided by:-
- the total area of the sea if totally enclosed by land or other seas (e.g. Central Arctic, Kara),
Or
- the maximum ice extent recorded since 1980 (e.g. Bering, Baffin, Barents, Greenland).
This gives the percentage of ice coverage. Open water is then 100% minus that percentage
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