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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2850 on: November 06, 2019, 01:04:08 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,146,090 km2(November 5, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 93k, 24 k more than the average gain of 69 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,182 k, 15 k (0.4 %) less than the average gain to date of 4,197 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (543 k lower),
- Extent is 470k less than 2018, and
- Extent is 40 k below 2012,
- Extent is 437 k (5.1%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 42.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 127 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.79 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.09 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Extent gains show further signs of moderating, though still well above average

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range  +1.3  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
Will these 13 days of very high gains continue? 
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?

__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2851 on: November 06, 2019, 03:25:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,866,901 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 6,866,901    km2      
-410,845    km2   <   2010's average.
-194,731    km2   <   2018
-1,215,036    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    211    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain
Central Seas__    198    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    31    k   gain
CAA_________    21    k   gain
East Siberian__    50    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    38    k   gain
Laptev_______    43    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 211 k, 89k MORE than the 2010's average of 122 k.

Extremely high yet again, and just three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 131k of that total, which is somewhat less as they get closer to maximum.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze (31k 30k gain today)


NSIDC area gain may be starting to decline.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 411 k.

2018 is more than 2019 by 195 k.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 1,053 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Every day sees a slight reduction in forecast Arctic +ve temperature anomalies(GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range  +1.3  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days), and colder on the Atlantic side and a large cold area close to the pole reaching to the Greenland and CAA shores that is already ice-covered.
 
Will these 13 days of very high gains continue?
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?
______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2852 on: November 06, 2019, 05:05:37 PM »


Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2853 on: November 06, 2019, 08:24:39 PM »
Not much sign of a slowdown in Arctic Sea Ice Loss in October. See Blumenkraft's post above.

The open water season is lengthening. Two seas with very little connection to the Arctic Ocean are the Hudson and the Baffin. They are irrelevant to discussions about trends in the September minimum as they melt out almost entirely every year. But they do illustrate well how melt is happening earlier and freezing is happening later, which must have an effect on the climate around the Arctic Ocean.

Graphs attached.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 10:35:36 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2854 on: November 06, 2019, 08:32:17 PM »
Hudson Bay does not illustrate this trend. This year may be a bit slow for the moment but look at 2018 which hit 1980s normals. I think that it is important to separate the seas where we are seeing a stark trend and those where we are not, and of all the peripheral bodies, Okhotsk and Hudson are a definite exception, even if they do have warm-ish moments. Given the extended weather forecast I anticipate a rapid Hudson refreeze, in fact it will likely do so before Chukchi IMO, but on that I could be wrong.

Paul

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2855 on: November 07, 2019, 03:36:01 AM »
But those 2 areas had much quicker growth(and slower melt) in 2018 so your argument is a little flawed imo. It's like there was a trend when the kara struggled to get ice growth consequently faster melt in the spring but the last few years, kara sea ice melt has been somewhat slower than in 2011 and 2012 for example. Seas outside the basin is more down to local weather conditions imo. The recent trend in the Chuckchi is more compelling and could be more of an indicator of a change.


Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2856 on: November 07, 2019, 04:46:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 6th, 2019:
     8,257,831 km2, a century increase of 111,741 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2857 on: November 07, 2019, 07:35:01 AM »
There has been very fast freezing on the Siberian and Atlantic side of the arctic and very slow freezing on the Canadian and Pacific side. So what happened to the "Atlantification" of the arctic?

Because the Atlantic side will have higher than average freezing and extent this winter, and if and when the Canadian and Pacific side start refreezing, we could very well see a very good rebound of arctic ice extent this winter.

Keeping fingers crossed.
Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2858 on: November 07, 2019, 11:03:19 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,257,831 km2(November 6, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 112k, 44 k more than the average gain of 68 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,294 k, 29 k (0.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,265 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (532 k lower),
- Extent is 393k less than 2018, and
- Extent is 7 k below 2012,
- Extent is 385 k (4.5%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 43.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 126 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.84 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.04 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Extent gains show further signs of moderating, though still very much above average

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
A change:- GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.1  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, and (take with a bag of salt**) a flood of warmth to +5.9 by day 10. In the first 5 days basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Will these 14 days of very high gains continue? 
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?

__________________________________________________
** GFS has form on predicting sudden warming events after day 5 that somehow usually fail to materialise. But in late Feb 2018 it did happen.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

pauldry600

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2859 on: November 07, 2019, 11:29:32 AM »
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2860 on: November 07, 2019, 03:19:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,059,301 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,059,301    km2      
-329,919    km2   <   2010's average.
-202,356    km2   <   2018
-1,096,428    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    192    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    177    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    30    k   gain
CAA_________    23    k   gain
East Siberian__    37    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
         
Kara_________    34    k   gain
Laptev_______    37    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 192 k, 81k MORE than the 2010's average of 111 k.

Extremely high yet again, and  three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) gained 107k of that total, which is much less than in recent days as they get closer to maximum.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze (92 gain in the last three days)


NSIDC area gain may be starting to decline - slowly.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 329 k.
2018 is more than 2019 by 202 k.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 1,074 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
A change:- GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.1  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, and (take with a bag of salt**) a flood of warmth to +5.9 by day 10. In the first 5 days basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Will these 14 days of very high gains continue?
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
** GFS has form on predicting sudden warming events after day 5 that somehow usually fail to materialise. But in late Feb 2018 it did happen.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2861 on: November 07, 2019, 07:50:05 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for October 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average October extent is now 7,98 M km². October 2019 had an average extent of 5,67 M km², which is 2,31 M km² less than that average and the lowest ever recorded since 1979 and the only October with an average value which is smaller than the average minus 2 standard deviations.
This low level also let the blue curve dip deeper below the red long term linear trend line. It is lower now by -1,10 M km² (calculated from the trend line this October should have been at 6,77 M km²).
The slope of the overall trend line has decreased by four digits compared to September 2019.

See attached graph.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2862 on: November 07, 2019, 09:24:50 PM »
NSIDC CENTRAL ARCTIC EXTENT as at 6 November 2019

On this day the Central Arctic Sea reached maximum possible extent at 3,224,682 KM2.
On this day the Central Arctic Sea Extent was 28th lowest (13th highest) for the day.
Zero extent gains from today.

In many years this century, extent did not reach 100%. When it did, it was in January to March.

Central Arctic Area is not far behind

This is not a usual freezing season.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2863 on: November 08, 2019, 05:18:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

ADS is 45 minutes late on the update.
If someone else can post the new values…
Thank you  :)

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

slow wing

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2864 on: November 08, 2019, 10:57:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

ADS is 45 minutes late on the update.
If someone else can post the new values…
Thank you  :)

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Still hasn't updated.

uniquorn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2865 on: November 08, 2019, 11:38:20 AM »
This is not a usual freezing season.
Apologies for OT thickness data. Mosaic smb1-4
https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/384820

echoughton

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2866 on: November 08, 2019, 12:33:57 PM »
NSIDC CENTRAL ARCTIC EXTENT as at 6 November 2019

On this day the Central Arctic Sea reached maximum possible extent at 3,224,682 KM2.
On this day the Central Arctic Sea Extent was 28th lowest (13th highest) for the day.
Zero extent gains from today.

In many years this century, extent did not reach 100%. When it did, it was in January to March.

Central Arctic Area is not far behind

This is not a usual freezing season.


This is baffling to me. MAXIMUM extent in CAB?? Doesn't this scream BIG thickness for this vital area moving through the winter? This tells me that this ice is absolutely in great shape for the near future...and certainly multi-year probability.

grixm

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2867 on: November 08, 2019, 01:57:50 PM »
This is baffling to me. MAXIMUM extent in CAB?? Doesn't this scream BIG thickness for this vital area moving through the winter? This tells me that this ice is absolutely in great shape for the near future...and certainly multi-year probability.

The ice is not in great shape at all. Extent is only a small part of the story, the volume is still near record lows. The ice happens to be wide enough to cover the CAB, but it is very thin, especially near the greenland/canadian coast. Anyway lets take discussion to the freezing season thread and leave this one for data only

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2868 on: November 08, 2019, 03:43:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,202,830 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,202,830    km2      
-283,485    km2   <   2010's average.
-231,714    km2   <   2018
-1,025,737    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    144    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    127    k   gain
Other Seas___   -4    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    28    k   gain
CAA_________    22    k   gain
East Siberian__    13    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
         
Kara_________    20    k   gain
Laptev_______    25    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 144 k, 47k MORE than the 2010's average of 97 k.

Area gain very high yet again, although considerably less, as the three seas (ESS, Laptev & Kara) only gained 58k of that total, being that much closer to maximum.
Looks like the Beaufort might be entering rapid freeze (120 gain in the last four days)


NSIDC area gain looks like declining.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 283 k.
2019 Area is less than 2018 by 232 k.
2019 Area more than 2012  by 110k

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 1,038 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
A change:- GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.3  to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days,  In the first 5 days basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold, and no sign of yesterday's forecast  (take with a bag of salt**) of a flood of warmth to +5.9 by day 10.

Will these 15 days of very high gains continue?
Or will daily gains return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
** GFS has form on predicting sudden warming events after day 5 that somehow usually fail to materialise. But in late Feb 2018 it did happen.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2869 on: November 08, 2019, 03:54:20 PM »
Central Arctic Sea Area continues to race to maximum. We are basically talking about the Arctic Ocean North of 80.

Athough overall the Arctic has been warmer than average, some parts extremely so (e.g. Chukchi and Russian Shore), temperatures North of 80 have been cold for some time..

So for once, the DMI North of 80 temperature graph seems to accurately reflect what's happened to the Central Arctic Sea ice (and/or vice-versa)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2870 on: November 08, 2019, 04:29:26 PM »
For those in anger of trauma from the absence of JAXA data here is NSIDC Extent (5 day-trailing average) graphs & tables in JAXA format.

No analysis - other things to do.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2871 on: November 08, 2019, 04:32:35 PM »
Because 2018 extent gains have also been high, the 365 day trailing average continues its downward slide towards in new record low sometime in Spring 2020. But this could change very quickly
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Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2872 on: November 08, 2019, 05:17:07 PM »
Gerontocrat, your graphs has gotten me thinking.  What if the open water in the peripheral seas is contributing to larger heat losses, resulting in faster refreeze of the CAB?  Widespread ice cover in the past may have kept more heat bottled up beneath the ice. 

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2873 on: November 09, 2019, 05:20:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 7th, 2019:
     8,363,289 km2, a century increase of 105,458 km2.

November 8th, 2019:
     8,461,408 km2, an increase of 98,119 km2.
     2019 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

etienne

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2874 on: November 09, 2019, 07:01:39 AM »
Gerontocrat, your graphs has gotten me thinking.  What if the open water in the peripheral seas is contributing to larger heat losses, resulting in faster refreeze of the CAB?  Widespread ice cover in the past may have kept more heat bottled up beneath the ice.
We have a value wirh 7 digits for the sea ice extent, but the daily change has only 5 digits, so change is only around 1% of absolut value. I am not sure that it means anything. To be considered in the extent, there must be around 15% of ice, so a fast freezing could just be a wide area that freezed a little bit more, just enough to be considered. You could also have an increase of the extent with a loss of area or a reduction of extent with a gain of area, depending if there is compaction or dispersion of the sea ice.

Addendum: this is why I like graphs like the yearly trailing average. That graph also provides information that is independent of seasonal conditions because 365 days are considered. I thank Gerontocrat for providing it.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 07:10:49 AM by etienne »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2875 on: November 09, 2019, 10:16:49 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,461,408 km2(November 8, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 98 k, 39 k more than the average gain of 59 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,497 k, 99 k (2.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,398 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (532 k lower) and 2012 (104 k lower),
- Extent is 332k less than 2018
- Extent is 329 k (3.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 44.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 124 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Extent gains show further signs of moderating, though still very much above average

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.2  to +2.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Or will daily gains ever return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2876 on: November 09, 2019, 04:12:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,312,975 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,312,975    km2      
-249,290    km2   <   2010's average.
-246,321    km2   <   2018
-987,122    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    110    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    28    k   gain
Central Seas__    81    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    28    k   gain
CAA_________    16    k   gain
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    19    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 110 k, 34 k MORE than the 2010's average of 76 k.

Area gain very high yet again, although considerably less'
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 249 k.
2019 Area is less than 2018 by 246 k.
2019 Area more than 2012 by 138 k

2016 is LESS than 2019 by 997 k, so 2019 area is even more very much back to 2nd 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.2  to +2.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cold.
 
Will daily gains ever return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2877 on: November 10, 2019, 04:48:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 9th, 2019:
     8,510,312 km2, an increase of 48,904 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2878 on: November 10, 2019, 10:06:05 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,510,312 km2(November 9, 2019)

After over 2 weeks of very high sea ice extent gains, a below average gain on this day

- Extent gain on this day 49 k, 12 k less than the average gain of 61 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,546 k, 86 k (1.9%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,460 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (481 k lower) and 2012 (109 k lower),
- Extent is 384k less than 2018
- Extent is 337 k (3.8%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 45.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 123 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain below average on this day - a sign of things to come or just taking a breath?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.5  to +3.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but not as cold.
 __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2879 on: November 10, 2019, 03:21:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,403,247  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,403,247    km2      
-220,550    km2   <   2010's average.
-257,675    km2   <   2018
-966,953    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    90    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    28    k   gain
Central Seas__    60    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________    13    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
         
Kara_________    19    k   gain
Laptev_______    14    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Daily gain 90 k, 28 k MORE than the 2010's average of 62 k.

Area gain high, although considerably less - reduction continuing day by day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 221 k.
2019 Area is less than 2018 by 258 k.
2019 Area more than 2012 by 189 k
2016 is LESS than 2019 by 974 k s

2019 area is  back to 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +1.5  to +3.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but not as cold as it has been for the last few weeks.
 
Will daily gains ever return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2880 on: November 10, 2019, 03:49:48 PM »
This year'smelting season was very much about Pacification.

Freezing to date has also been late on the Pacific side, and still is.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2881 on: November 10, 2019, 03:54:02 PM »
Meanwhile, on the Atlantic side, freezing is ahead of schedule.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2882 on: November 11, 2019, 04:52:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 10th, 2019:
     8,592,985 km2, an increase of 82,673 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2883 on: November 11, 2019, 09:41:06 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,592,985 km2(November 10, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 83 k, 3 k more than the average gain of 80 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,629 k, 89 k (2.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,540 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (458 k lower) and 2012 (132 k lower),
- Extent is 375k less than 2018
- Extent is 333 k (3.7%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 46.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 122 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain at average on this day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +2.1  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but not as cold.
 __________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2884 on: November 11, 2019, 06:03:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,478,200  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,478,200    km2      
-198,371    km2   <   2010's average.
-261,482    km2   <   2018
-963,961    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    75    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    25    k   gain
Central Seas__    49    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    15    k   gain
CAA_________    12    k   gain
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    16    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Daily gain 75 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 53 k.

Area gain high, although considerably less - reduction continuing day by day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 198 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 261 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 241 k
- 2016 is LESS than 2019 by 970 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from  +2.1  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but not as cold.
 
Will daily gains ever return to the average or even below?
__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2885 on: November 11, 2019, 06:55:49 PM »
A Tales of 2 seas (NSIDC Sea Ice Area)

The Central Arctic Sea - currently 31st lowest, i.e. 11th highest, in the satellite record, and nearly 200,000 km2 more than the 2010's average.

The Chukchi Sea - currently lowest ( and for 151 days this year), and nearly 300,000 km2 less than the 2010s average.

The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2886 on: November 11, 2019, 07:00:38 PM »
The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.

Some here believe there is no real difference.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2887 on: November 12, 2019, 04:47:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 11th, 2019:
     8,667,580 km2, an increase of 74,595 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2888 on: November 12, 2019, 06:10:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,667,580 km2(November 11, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 75 k, 2 k more than the average gain of 73 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,4703 k, 90 k (2.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,613 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record below 2016 (379 k lower) and 2012 (1329 k lower),
- Extent is 393k less than 2018
- Extent is 337 k (3.8%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 46.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 121 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.90 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain at average for a 2nd day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Insomnia means you get an early helping of data. I am hoping that this is a one-off.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2889 on: November 12, 2019, 03:23:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,541,231  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,541,231    km2      
-196,320    km2   <   2010's average.
-280,810    km2   <   2018
-971,545    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    38    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    20    k   gain
CAA_________    12    k   gain
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 2 k MORE than the 2010's average of 61 k.

Area gain at average, - reduction continuing day by day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 196 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 281 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 253 k
- 2016 is LESS than 2019 by 946 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay at average or even below?
__________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2890 on: November 13, 2019, 04:43:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 12th, 2019:
     8,770,905 km2, a century increase of 103,325 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2891 on: November 13, 2019, 02:09:39 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,770,905 km2(November 12, 2019)

Back to a very much above average daily sea ice gain.

- Extent gain on this day 103 k, 53 k more than the average gain of 50 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,807 k, 144 k (3.1%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,663 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (411 k lower) and 2012 ( 126 k lower),
- Extent is 382 k less than 2018
- Extent is 290 k (3.2%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 47.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 120 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.07 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain well above average for on this day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2892 on: November 13, 2019, 03:28:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,591,411 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,591,411    km2      
-220,240    km2   <   2010's average.
-321,115    km2   <   2018
-983,355    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    24    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    21    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 50 k, 24 k LESS than the 2010's average of 74 k.

Area gain BELOW average, the first time since what seems for ages.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 220 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 321 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 223 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 906 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average?
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2893 on: November 13, 2019, 04:31:10 PM »
The Chukchi continues to impress.

The Bering Sea is about to become interesting.

The Beaufort and the ESS are late in completing their freeze.

There is still a Chukchi Big Bite.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2894 on: November 14, 2019, 05:03:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 13th, 2019:
     8,896,200 km2, a century increase of 125,295 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Feeltheburn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2895 on: November 14, 2019, 05:51:33 AM »
This is baffling to me. MAXIMUM extent in CAB?? Doesn't this scream BIG thickness for this vital area moving through the winter? This tells me that this ice is absolutely in great shape for the near future...and certainly multi-year probability.

The ice is not in great shape at all. Extent is only a small part of the story, the volume is still near record lows. The ice happens to be wide enough to cover the CAB, but it is very thin, especially near the greenland/canadian coast. Anyway lets take discussion to the freezing season thread and leave this one for data only

I think his point is that if it freezes sooner it has more time to freeze even more and get thicker than it has been in a long time. Your point doesn't make sense if usually at this time of year it's still open water. Thin ice is still thicker than no ice. So I don't see the need to quibble. Thus, the ice is indeed in better shape, if not great shape, in that region.
Feel The Burn!

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2896 on: November 14, 2019, 07:44:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,896,200 km2(November 13, 2019)

Back to a very much above average daily sea ice gain for a second day.

- Extent gain on this day 125 k, 78 k more than the average gain of 47 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,932 k, 222 k (4.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,710 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (498 k lower) and 2012 ( 182 k lower),
- Extent is 298 k less than 2018
- Extent is 217 k (2.4%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 47.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 119 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.03 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.15 million km2.
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Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain well above average for a 2nd day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2897 on: November 14, 2019, 03:33:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,640,488  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,640,488    km2      
-257,701    km2   <   2010's average.
-376,621    km2   <   2018
-987,729    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    49    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    28    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    14    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Daily gain 49 k, 38 k LESS than the 2010's average of 87 k.

Area gain well below average, the 2nd day since what seems for ages.
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Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 257 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 377 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 166 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 865 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high JAXA and NSIDC daily extent gain on this day is maintained.......no?
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2898 on: November 15, 2019, 05:14:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 14th, 2019:
     8,956,449 km2, an increase of 60,249 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2899 on: November 15, 2019, 12:17:24 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,956,449 km2(November 14, 2019)

And back to a below average sea ice extent gain after 2 days of very much above average daily sea ice gain.

- Extent gain on this day 60 k, 20 k more than the average gain of 80 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,992 k, 202 k (4.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,790 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (222 k lower) and 2012 ( 165 k lower),
- Extent is 322 k less than 2018
- Extent is 230 k (2.5%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 48.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 118 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.01 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain below average.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)