2019 sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 14 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,703,083  km2

Total Area           7,703,083    km2       -290,736    km2   <   2010's average. -414,615    km2   <   2018 -974,614    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    63    k   gain Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain Central Seas__    33    k   gain Other Seas___    7    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    3    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    24    k   gain CAA_________    8    k   gain East Siberian__   -11    k   loss Central Arctic_    10    k   gain           Kara_________   -0    k   loss Laptev_______   -7    k   loss Chukchi______    9    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 33 k LESS than the 2010's average of 96 k.

Area gain well below average, the 3rd day since what seemed like ages of above average gains.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 291 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 415 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 89 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 826 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high NSIDC daily extent gain on the last 2 days is maintained.......no?
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 15^th, 2019:
     9,003,212 km², an increase of 46,763 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. There is no official value of 2018, average used.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,003,212 km2（November 15, 2019）

A 2nd day of below average sea ice extent gain - on this day extremely low gain.

- Extent gain on this day 47 k, 47 k less than the average gain of 94 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,039 k, 155 k (3.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,884 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (546 k lower) and 2012 ( 94 k lower),
- Extent is 389 k less than 2018
- Extent is 268 k (2.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 49.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 117 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.96 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 15 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,755,585 km2

Total Area           7,755,585    km2       -340,624    km2   <   2010's average. -467,694    km2   <   2018 -978,130    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    53    k   gain Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain Central Seas__    26    k   gain Other Seas___    9    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____    0    k   gain Barents ______    4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    32    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -13    k   loss Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______   -6    k   loss Chukchi______    12    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Daily gain 53 k, 49 k LESS than the 2010's average of 102 k.

Area gain well below average, the 4th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 341 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 468 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 21 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 781 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.
The Chukchi big bite looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Interesting how sea ice extent is higher than it was on this day in 2012 but area is lower. Could the high sea ice dispersion cause trouble in the 2020 melting season?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 16^th, 2019:
     9,063,031 km², an increase of 59,819 km².
     2019 is still 3^rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,063,031 km2（November 16, 2019）

A 3rd day of below average sea ice extent gain.
Extent gain this freezing season now half done.

- Extent gain on this day 60 k, 15 k less than the average gain of 75 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,099 k, 140 k (2.8%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,959 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (598 k lower) and 2012 ( 3 k lower),
- Extent is 443 k less than 2018
- Extent is 276 k (3.0%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 50.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 116 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.12 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 16 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,790,123 km2

Total Area           7,790,123    km2       -401,403    km2   <   2010's average. -557,349    km2   <   2018 -1,008,759    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    35    k   gain Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain Central Seas__    21    k   gain Other Seas___    10    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____   -7    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    28    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__   -8    k   loss Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Chukchi______    9    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 35 k, 60 k LESS than the 2010's average of 95 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 5th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 401 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 557 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 767 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and currently very low.
The Chukchi big bite still looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 17^th, 2019:
     9,146,740 km², an increase of 83,709 km².
     2019 is now 2^nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is 729K km² below the 2^nd place (2019) and the difference will increase on the following days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,146,740 km2（November 17, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 25 k more than the average gain of 59 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,183 k, 164 k (3.3%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,018 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (729 k lower extent) and 2012 ( 30 k higher extent),
- Extent is 464 k less than 2018
- Extent is 244 k (2.6%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 51.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 115 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.97 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.09 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 18^th, 2019:
     9,255,893 km², a century increase of 109,153 km².
     2019 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is 935K km² below the 2^nd place (2019) and the difference will increase on the following days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,255,893 km2（November 18, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 109 k, 63 k more than the average gain of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,292 k, 228 k (4.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,064 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (729 k lower extent) and 2012 ( 30 k higher extent),
- Extent is 540 k less than 2018
- Extent is 177 k (1.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 51.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 114 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.03 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.15 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,835,941 km2

Total Area           7,835,941    km2       -507,716    km2   <   2010's average. -740,086    km2   <   2018 -1,119,482    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    24    k   gain Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain Central Seas__    10    k   gain Other Seas___    8    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain Greenland____   -7    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    21    k   gain CAA_________    5    k   gain East Siberian__    16    k   gain Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss           Kara_________   -12    k   loss Laptev_______   -13    k   loss Chukchi______    12    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 24 k, 47 k LESS than the 2010's average of 71 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 7th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 508 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 740 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 353 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 882 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and on this day changed from very low to very high.

The Chukchi big bite now looks its started a sudden freeze now the wind has changed.
In contrast, area losses on the Atlantic Front from strong winds from the North Atlantic.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 19^th, 2019:
     9,349,965 km², an increase of 94,072 km².
     2019 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     (In the graph, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is 1.05 million km² below the 2^nd place (2019). This low extent must be the reason to have the lowest monthly volumen record, from November 2016 to July 2017.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,349,965 km2（November 19, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 94 k, 48 k more than the average gain of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,386 k, 275 k (5.4%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,110 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (1,047 k lower extent), 2012 ( 55 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 15 k higher extent),
- Extent is 518 k less than 2018
- Extent is 129 k (1.4%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 51.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 113 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.08 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.20 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.6  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,882,946 km2

Total Area           7,882,946    km2       -532,602    km2   <   2010's average. -809,347    km2   <   2018 -1,155,329    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    47    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss Central Seas__    37    k   gain Other Seas___    10    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain Greenland____   -13    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    13    k   gain CAA_________    6    k   gain East Siberian__    35    k   gain Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss           Kara_________   -9    k   loss Laptev_______   -6    k   loss Chukchi______    20    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 47 k, 25 k LESS than the 2010's average of 72 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 8th day, but creeping up.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 533 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 809 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 957 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.0  to +2.6 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and on this day very high for a 2nd day.

The Chukchi big bite has started a rapid freeze now the wind has changed.
In contrast, area losses on the Atlantic Front (including the Central Arctic Sea) from strong winds from the North Atlantic.
________________________________________________________________________

[Niall Dollard]

Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 20^th, 2019:
     9,408,208 km², an increase of 58,243 km².
     2019 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

P.S. 2016 is one million km² below the 2^nd place (2019). This low extent must be the reason to have the lowest monthly volumen record, from November 2016 to July 2017.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,408,208 km2（November 20, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 12 k less than the average gain of 70 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,444 k, 264 k (5.1%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,180 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (1,005 k lower extent), 2012 ( 92 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 12 k higher extent),
- Extent is 565 k less than 2018
- Extent is 144 k (1.5%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 52.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 112 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.07 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.19 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,956,714 km2

Total Area           7,956,714    km2       -525,778    km2   <   2010's average. -838,530    km2   <   2018 -1,155,528    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    74    k   gain Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain Central Seas__    56    k   gain Other Seas___    7    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    4    k   gain CAA_________    10    k   gain East Siberian__    38    k   gain Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss           Kara_________   -7    k   loss Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Chukchi______    24    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 74 k, 7 k MORE than the 2010's average of 67 k.

Area gain a bit above average, and increasing.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 526 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 839 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,031 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite in a rapid freeze now the wind has changed.
In contrast, area losses on the Atlantic Front (including the Central Arctic Sea) from strong winds from the North Atlantic.
________________________________________________________________________

[Phil.]

Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

[oren]

At least compared to 2016-2018, Bering has indeed started refreezing earlier this year. See UH animation in the Freezing Season thread.

[gerontocrat]

After some days with winds pushing ice north East and West, the winds changes to shoving ice towards  the Bering Strait. This looks like continuing until the 24-25 Nov - and then a complete reversal again.

The area graphs show the double effect - especially the ESS. The Bering Sea also caught a cold.

[gerontocrat]

In contrast, in recent days strong Atlantic southerly winds have caused extent reductions on the Atlantic Front, even pushing back the ice edge into the Central Arctic Sea. The wind pattern now looks somewhat confused.

But here are the graphs to the 20 Nov

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 21^st, 2019:
     9,473,916 km², an increase of 65,708 km².
     2019 is now 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,473,916 km2（November 21, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 66 k, 20 k less than the average gain of 86 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,510 k, 244 k (4.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,266 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 873 k more than 2016
- Extent is 14 k more than 2017
- Extent is 658 k less than 2018
- Extent is 165 k (1.7%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 53.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 111 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.05 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.17 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering, getting colder on the Atlantic Front
_____________________________________________________________

[Phil.]

"Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (873 k lower extent), 2012 ( 106 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 14 k lower extent),"?

[gerontocrat]

"Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (873 k lower extent), 2012 ( 106 k higher extent), and 2017 ( 14 k lower extent),"?

I was being lazy.
Post amended.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,065,970 km2

Total Area           8,065,970    km2       -482,709    km2   <   2010's average. -802,964    km2   <   2018 -1,108,800    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    109    k   gain Peripheral Seas    32    k   gain Central Seas__    72    k   gain Other Seas___    6    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain Greenland____    8    k   gain Barents ______    3    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    8    k   gain East Siberian__    37    k   gain Central Arctic_    6    k   gain           Kara_________   -1    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Chukchi______    24    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 109 k, 43 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

Area gain a very much above average, and increasing.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 483 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 803 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,097 km2

2019 area 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +2.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering, getting colder on the Atlantic Front.
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a rapid freeze now the wind has changed and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped apart from small losses in the Kara & Laptev Seas.

It seems winds - direction, strong or weak, are the main short-term influences at the moment.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 22^nd, 2019:
     9,577,624 km², a century increase of 103,708 km².
     2019 is now 4^th lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,577,624 km2（November 22, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 104 k, 16 k more than the average gain of 88 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,510 k, 244 k (4.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,266 k.
- Extent is down to 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 867 k more than 2016
- Extent is 98 k more than 2017
- Extent is 42 k more than 2006
- Extent is 695 k less than 2018
- Extent is 145 k (1.5%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 54.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 110 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.07 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.19 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front and the Central Arctic Ocean
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,218,936 km2

Total Area           8,218,936    km2       -401,240    km2   <   2010's average. -735,973    km2   <   2018 -1,010,227    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    153    k   gain Peripheral Seas    37    k   gain Central Seas__    107    k   gain Other Seas___    10    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain Greenland____    10    k   gain Barents ______    8    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    5    k   gain East Siberian__    35    k   gain Central Arctic_    26    k   gain           Kara_________    12    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Chukchi______    24    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 153 k, 82 k MORE than the 2010's average of 71 k.

Area gain extremely above average, and increasing mightily.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 401 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 736 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,143 km2

2019 area still 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front and the Central Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a very rapid freeze now the wind has changed and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped . Greenland and Barents Seas gains accelerating

It seems winds - direction, strong or weak, are still the main short-term influences at the moment.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 23^nd, 2019:
     9,655,591 km², an increase of 77,967 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2017 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,655,591 km2（November 23, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 78 k, 26 k whoops more less than the average gain of 104 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,691 k, 234 k (4.3%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,457 k.
- Extent is down to 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 837 k more than 2016
- Extent is 102 k more than 2017
- Extent is 98 k more than 2006
- Extent is 0 k more than 2010.

- Extent is 659 k less than 2018
- Extent is 170 k (1.7%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 55.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 110 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.04 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.16 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

[Tom_Mazanec]

gerontocrat:

Extent gain on this day 78 k, 26 k more than the average gain of 104 k

Don't you mean less than?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,369,058 km2

Total Area           8,369,058    km2       -331,746    km2   <   2010's average. -676,734    km2   <   2018 -915,265    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    150    k   gain Peripheral Seas    30    k   gain Central Seas__    109    k   gain Other Seas___    11    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    2    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    32    k   gain Central Arctic_    19    k   gain           Kara_________    19    k   gain Laptev_______    13    k   gain Chukchi______    23    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 150 k, 69 k MORE than the 2010's average of 81 k.

Area gain extremely above average - peaked?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 332 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 677 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,136 km2

2019 area still 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, - increasing warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, getting colder on the Atlantic Front.
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a very rapid freeze and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped . Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing.

It seems the ice is thin and broken and at the mercy of the winds.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat:

Extent gain on this day 78 k, 26 k more than the average gain of 104 k

Don't you mean less than?

Thanks Tom, left my brain in the car park today.

[Tom_Mazanec]

You're welcome, gerontocrat.
I have had some brain farts posting online myself, a few of them even more embarrassing.

[Tor Bejnar]

Thanks ..., left my brain in the car park today.

At least you had one (and have one if you retrieved it). [/attempt at humour]

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 24^nd, 2019:
     9,700,094 km², an increase of 44,503 km².
     2019 is now 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,700,094 km2（November 24, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 45 k, 51 k less than the average gain of 96 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,736 k, 183 k (3.3%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,553 k.
- Extent is back up to 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 743 k more than 2016
- Extent is 61 k less than 2017
- Extent is 124 k more than 2006
- Extent is 52 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 647 k less than 2018
- Extent is 219 k (2.2%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 56.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 108 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.99 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.11 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,487,916 km2

Total Area           8,487,916    km2       -293,174    km2   <   2010's average. -649,135    km2   <   2018 -850,640    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    119    k   gain Peripheral Seas    30    k   gain Central Seas__    82    k   gain Other Seas___    7    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain Greenland____    13    k   gain Barents ______    12    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    24    k   gain Central Arctic_    12    k   gain           Kara_________    16    k   gain Laptev_______    11    k   gain Chukchi______    19    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Daily gain 119 k, 39 k MORE than the 2010's average of 80 k.

Area gain extremely above average but less than the previous 2 days - peaked, maybe?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 293 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 649 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,095 km2

2019 area still 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.9  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front..
 
Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

The Chukchi big bite is in a very rapid freeze and is now only a medium-sized bite. Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped and reversed. Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing.

It seems the ice is thin and broken and at the mercy of the winds, which NullSchool indicates may be very variable in strength and direction.
________________________________________________________________________

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Extent gain seems to be fluctuating around the trend line in a neat sinusoidal pattern. I wonder how long (if at all) it will stay that way.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 25^th, 2019:
     9,757,995 km², an increase of 57,901 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,757,995 km2（November 25, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 58 k, 15 k less than the average gain of 73 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,794 k, 168 k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,626 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 669 k more than 2016
- Extent is 78 k less than 2017
- Extent is 169 k more than 2006
- Extent is 102 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 635 k less than 2018
- Extent is 231 k (2.3%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 57.2 % of extent gain for the the season done, 107 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.97 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.09 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.0  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,595,019 km2

Total Area           8,595,019    km2       -271,107    km2   <   2010's average. -650,028    km2   <   2018 -793,251    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    107    k   gain Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain Central Seas__    69    k   gain Other Seas___    11    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain Greenland____    14    k   gain Barents ______    10    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    19    k   gain Central Arctic_    10    k   gain           Kara_________    17    k   gain Laptev_______    7    k   gain Chukchi______    16    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 107 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 85 k.

Area gain well above average but less than the previous 3 days - peaked, maybe?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 271 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 650 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,048 km2

2019 area now 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.0  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.

Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped and reversed. Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing. Chukchi extent gains continuing.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 26^th, 2019:
     9,821,610 km², an increase of 63,615 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,821,610 km2（November 26, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 64 k, 24 k less than the average gain of 88 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,857 k, 144 k (2.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,714 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 598 k more than 2016
- Extent is 150 k less than 2017
- Extent is 140 k more than 2006
- Extent is 98 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 589 k less than 2018
- Extent is 255 k (2.3%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 58.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 106 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.07 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,690,540  km2

Total Area           8,690,540    km2       -265,187    km2   <   2010's average. -671,957    km2   <   2018 -755,147    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    96    k   gain Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain Central Seas__    58    k   gain Other Seas___    11    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain Greenland____    12    k   gain Barents ______    10    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    9    k   gain Central Arctic_    7    k   gain           Kara_________    24    k   gain Laptev_______    6    k   gain Chukchi______    12    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 96 k, 6 k MORE than the 2010's average of 90 k.

Area gain above average but less than the previous 4 days.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 265 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 672 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,004 km2

2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 27^th, 2019:
     9,852,457 km², an increase of 30,847 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).