2019 sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,852,457 km2（November 27, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 31 k, 53 k less than the average gain of 84 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,888 k, 90 k (1.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,798 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 514 k more than 2016
- Extent is 214 k less than 2017
- Extent is 112 k more than 2006
- Extent is 120 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 605 k less than 2018
- Extent is 309 k (3.0%)  less than the 2010's average,

- on average 58.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 105 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.90 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 5 days just maybe a blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the central Arctic Ocean - but only maybe).

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
_____________________________________________________________

[karl dubhe2]

May I ask what your error range is for the expected extent at the end of the freezing year?   

Thanks.

[gerontocrat]

May I ask what your error range is for the expected extent at the end of the freezing year?   

Thanks.

Error range? Not a clue. The table ARC1 has a minimum and a maximum from the last 10 years. This range shrinks as the season progresses.

Expected extent ? No it isn't. It is just an arithmetical projection of the result if remaining gain is at the remaining average gain of the last 10 years. It does show whether the season so far is looking sort-of at the average, or above or below.

But it is just data, not predictions.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,740,489  km2

Total Area           8,740,489    km2       -306,481    km2   <   2010's average. -720,871    km2   <   2018 -768,283    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    50    k   gain Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain Central Seas__    21    k   gain Other Seas___    12    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    9    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    3    k   gain           Kara_________    23    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Chukchi______   -4    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    1    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain

Daily gain 50 k, 41 k LESS than the 2010's average of 91 k.

Area gain very much below average after the previous week or so of above average gains.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 306 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 721 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 929 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies (which includes land) in the range +2.4  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 3 days increasing chance of a big blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay really cold - WACC ?).

Winds highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. Expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 28^th, 2019:
     9,934,279 km², an increase of 81,822 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     There is no official value for 2007, average used.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,934,279 km2（November 28, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 82 k, 7k more than the average gain of 75k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,970 k, 97 k (1.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,873 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 470 k more than 2016
- Extent is 201 k less than 2017
- Extent is 173 k more than 2006
- Extent is 124 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 559 k less than 2018
- Extent is 307 k (3.0%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 59.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 104 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.90 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 3 days increasing chance of a big blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay really cold - WACC ?).

Winds highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. Expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 28 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,804,783  km2

Total Area           8,804,783    km2       -327,467    km2   <   2010's average. -740,777    km2   <   2018 -768,779    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    64    k   gain Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain Central Seas__    28    k   gain Other Seas___    13    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    15    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__   -2    k   loss Central Arctic_    9    k   gain           Kara_________    24    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______   -9    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    13    k   gain

Daily gain 64 k, 21 k LESS than the 2010's average of 85 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 327 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 741 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 872 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 3 days increasing chance of a big blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay really cold - WACC ?).

Winds highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. Expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 29^th, 2019:
     10,010,447 km², an increase of 76,168 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     There is no official value for 2007, average used.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,010,447 km2（November 29, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 76 k, 10k less than the average gain of 86k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,046 k, 87 k (1.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 5,959 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 440 k more than 2016
- Extent is 160 k less than 2017
- Extent is 197 k more than 2006
- Extent is 150 k less than 2010.

- Extent is 530 k less than 2018
- Extent is 325 k (3.1%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 60.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 103 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.89 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 3 days now only a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold - GFS forecast changes yet again) .

Winds highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. Expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 29 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,881,446  km2

Total Area           8,881,446    km2       -332,847    km2   <   2010's average. -731,696    km2   <   2018 -758,262    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    77    k   gain Peripheral Seas    29    k   gain Central Seas__    32    k   gain Other Seas___    15    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______    16    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    13    k   gain           Kara_________    26    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______   -10    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain

Daily gain 77 k, 5 k LESS than the 2010's average of 82 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 333 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 732 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 830 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 3 days now only a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold - GFS forecast changes yet again) .

Winds highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. Expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
________________________________________________________________________
[/quote]

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 30^th, 2019:
     10,106,657 km², an increase of 96,210 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[Tom_Mazanec]

gerontocrat:
On  Reply #2959 on: November 30, 2019, 09:51:58 AM
You say:

- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.

Yet the chart accompanying this seems to show us at 2nd place (behind 2016).

[Jacobus]

gerontocrat:
On  Reply #2959 on: November 30, 2019, 09:51:58 AM
You say:

- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.

Yet the chart accompanying this seems to show us at 2nd place (behind 2016).

That's because the chart does not show 2006.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,106,657 km2（November 30, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 96 k, 17k more than the average gain of 79k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,142 k, 105 k (1.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,038 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 434 k more than 2016
- Extent is 211 k more than 2006

- Extent is 499 k less than 2018
- Extent is 314 k (3.0%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 61.3 % of extent gain for the the season done, 102 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.91 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.03 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 2 days a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold - GFS forecast changes yet again) .

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 30 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,881,446  km2

Total Area           8,948,671    km2       -341,272    km2   <   2010's average. -714,930    km2   <   2018 -760,802    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    67    k   gain Peripheral Seas    19    k   gain Central Seas__    33    k   gain Other Seas___    16    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____   -3    k   loss Barents ______    11    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_    9    k   gain           Kara_________    27    k   gain Laptev_______    6    k   gain Chukchi______   -9    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain

Daily gain 67 k, 9 k LESS than the 2010's average of 76 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 341 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 715 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 786 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. (After 2 days a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold - GFS forecast changes yet again) .

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant changes in sea ice gains (even losses) in the peripheral seas.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

Another month has passed by.
Nearly half the days and more than half the extent and area gains of the 2019-20 freezing season are done.

So here are some graphs showing the freezing season to date.

Total Arctic Area & Extent
Show how late and how slow the freeze was especially in October.
Inevitably there has been a bit of a catch-up in November.
But compared with the 1980's, sea ice extent and area is still one month behind.

Pacific Gateway
Bering Sea Still far too early to tell what this season will bring.

Chukchi Sea Already one for the record books.
171 days at lowest daily sea ice area in the satellite record, and sea ice area currently around 275k less than the 2010's average.

Will December see the big catch-up or will the final freeze be delayed until the New Year?

[gerontocrat]

Another month has passed by.
Nearly half the days and more than half the extent and area gains of the 2019-20 freezing season are done.

So here are some more graphs showing the freezing season to date.

Atlantic Front
In this freezing season the seas on the Atlantic side have been a contrast to the Pacific side - very much above average sea ice gains.

Kara Sea - late freeze start, but November sea ice gains very much above average

Greenland Sea & Barents Sea Since mid-October sea ice area gains consistently well above 2010's average.

How far into the Atlantic will the sea ice get?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 1^st, 2019:
     10,131,520 km², an increase of 24,863 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,131,520 km2（December 1, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 25 k, 42k less than the average gain of 67k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,142 k, 105 k (1.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,038 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 370 k more than 2016
- Extent is 132 k more than 2006

- Extent is 478 k less than 2018
- Extent is 354 k (3.4%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 62.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 101 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.87 million km2, below the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. Starting Tuesday a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant changes in sea ice gains (and losses) in the peripheral seas.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 1 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,014,759  km2

Total Area           9,014,759    km2       -347,053    km2   <   2010's average. -682,502    km2   <   2018 -766,544    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    66    k   gain Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain Central Seas__    35    k   gain Other Seas___    23    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______   -1    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain Greenland____   -4    k   loss Barents ______    4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    4    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    7    k   gain           Kara_________    19    k   gain Laptev_______    6    k   gain Chukchi______   -4    k   loss           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Daily gain 66 k, 6 k LESS than the 2010's average of 72 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 347 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 683 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 748 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. Starting Tuesday a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant changes in sea ice gains (and losses) in the peripheral seas.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 2^nd, 2019:
     10,186,458 km², an increase of 54,938 km².
     2019 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,186,458 km2（December 2, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 55 k, 18k less than the average gain of 73k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,222 k, 44 k (0.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,178 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 293 k more than 2016
- Extent is 79 k more than 2006

- Extent is 430 k less than 2018
- Extent is 369 k (3.5%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 62.8 % of extent gain for the the season done, 100 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.85 million km2, below the lowest in the satellite record by 0.03 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.1  to +0.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. Starting Today a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant reversals in sea ice gains (and losses) in the peripheral seas.
_____________________________________________________________

[zufall]

+2.1  to +10.8

Shouldn't that be 0.8 or 1.8?

[gerontocrat]

+2.1  to +10.8

Shouldn't that be 0.8 or 1.8?

Well spotted, Zufall

0.8

The keyboard on this clapped out laptop is getting to be a real pain.

[zufall]

Thanks. All the more so I appreciate your tireless posts!

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 2 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,106,575 km2

Total Area           9,106,575    km2       -323,346    km2   <   2010's average. -615,451    km2   <   2018 -740,219    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    92    k   gain Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain Central Seas__    51    k   gain Other Seas___    31    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain Greenland____   -3    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    9    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    15    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Chukchi______    16    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    7    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    24    k   gain

Daily gain 92 k, 24 k MORE than the 2010's average of 68 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 33 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 615 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 739 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.1  to +0.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. Starting Today a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant reversals in sea ice gains (and losses) in the peripheral seas.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 3^rd, 2019:
     10,266,293 km², an increase of 79,835 km².
     2019 is now 2^nd lowest on record.
     2007 has no oficial value, average used.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,266,293 km2（December 3, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 80 k, 11k more than the average gain of 69k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,302 k, 55k (0.9%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,247 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 269 k more than 2016
- Extent is 1 k less than 2006

- Extent is 350 k less than 2018
- Extent is 354 k (3.3%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 63.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 99 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.86 million km2, below the lowest in the satellite record by 0.02 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.1  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, - 

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 3 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,190,262 km2

Total Area           9,190,262    km2       -307,310    km2   <   2010's average. -544,906    km2   <   2018 -720,632    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    84    k   gain Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain Central Seas__    40    k   gain Other Seas___    39    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    4    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain Greenland____   -4    k   loss Barents ______   -6    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    10    k   gain CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__    13    k   gain Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss           Kara_________   -5    k   loss Laptev_______    3    k   gain Chukchi______    25    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    9    k   gain St Lawrence___    3    k   gain Hudson Bay___    27    k   gain

Daily gain 84 k, 16 k MORE than the 2010's average of 68 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 307 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 545 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 731 km2
- 2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.1  to +1.1 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 4^th, 2019:
     10,412,129 km², a century increase of 145,836 km².
     Nonetheless, 2019 is still 2^nd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,412,129 km2（December 4, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 146 k, 74k more than the average gain of 742k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,448 k, 129k (2.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,319 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 384 k more than 2016
- Extent is 28 k less than 2006

- Extent is 199 k less than 2018
- Extent is 275 k (2.6%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 64.2 % of extent gain for the the season done, 98 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.93 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.05 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.2  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - 

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 4 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,265,253  km2

Total Area           9,265,253    km2       -298,120    km2   <   2010's average. -471,703    km2   <   2018 -707,036    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Area Change    75    k   gain Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain Central Seas__    32    k   gain Other Seas___    43    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    4    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain Greenland____   -9    k   loss Barents ______   -10    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    10    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    9    k   gain Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss           Kara_________   -7    k   loss Laptev_______    2    k   gain Chukchi______    26    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    9    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    31    k   gain

Daily gain 75 k, 9 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 298 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 472 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 738 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.2  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction - especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.
________________________________________________________________________

[PragmaticAntithesis]

Wow, that's quite a jump in extent! Will it continue into Tomorrow, or just be a 1-day spike, I wonder?

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 5^th, 2019:
     10,546,431 km², a century increase of 134,302 km².
     2019 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,546,431 km2（December 5, 2019）

A second day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 134 k, 65k more than the average gain of 69k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,582 k, 194k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,389 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 500 k more than 2016

- Extent is 95 k less than 2018
- Extent is 209 k (2.6%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 64.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 97 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.00 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.12 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +0.9  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 4 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,340,320  km2

Total Area           9,340,320    km2       -287,888    km2   <   2010's average. -398,041    km2   <   2018 -693,555    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    75    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss Central Seas__    30    k   gain Other Seas___    46    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    4    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    18    k   gain Greenland____   -16    k   loss Barents ______   -6    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    8    k   gain CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__    8    k   gain Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss           Kara_________   -6    k   loss Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______    25    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    40    k   gain

Daily gain 75 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 65 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 288 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 398 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 767 km2
- 2019 area 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +0.9  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction - especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.
________________________________________________________________________

[Stephan]

I took the monthly extent value for November 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average November extent is now 10,48 M km². November 2019 had an average extent of 9,33 M km², which is 1,15 M km² less than that average and the second lowest ever recorded since 1978.
The rapid re-freeze after the record-low October pushed the actual value slightly above the red long term linear trend line by 0,04 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this November should have been at 9,29 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has stayed at the same low level that was reached in October 2019.

See attached graph.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 6^th, 2019:
     10,652,265 km², a century increase of 105,834 km².
     2019 is 2^nd lowest on record.
     

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,652,265 km2（December 6, 2019）

A third day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 106 k, 43k more than the average gain of 63k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,688 k, 236k (3.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,452 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 568 k more than 2016

- Extent is 65 k less than 2018
- Extent is 175 k (1.6%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 65.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 96 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.04 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.16 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 6 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,430,332 km2

Total Area           9,430,332    km2       -263,872    km2   <   2010's average. -330,827    km2   <   2018 -660,630    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    90    k   gain Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain Central Seas__    35    k   gain Other Seas___    49    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    5    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    23    k   gain Greenland____   -21    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    5    k   gain East Siberian__    7    k   gain Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss           Kara_________   -0    k   loss Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______    26    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    2    k   gain St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    48    k   gain

Daily gain 90 k, 24 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 264 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 331 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 812 km2
- 2019 area 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.

Note also 48k gain in Hudson Bay
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

Total Arctic Extent Shows that extent at maximum is declining much more slowly than extent at minimum. 2019-20 shows no sign of breaking that trend.

PACIFIC GATEWAY
Bering Sea Too early to make any useful comment.
Chukchi Sea Freezing is late, very late, but looks like the only question is how late the complete freeze-up will be.

[gerontocrat]

The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

CANADIAN SEAS
Baffin Bay A surprise this year - early to melt, late to freeze. Will the maximum also be a record low?
Of interest (at least to me) is that over the years the March sea ice maximum is declining much faster than the September minimum (which still does not reach zero). This is in contrast to the overall trend in the Arctic Seas. The Atlantic warmth is pushing north?

Canadian Archipelago (CAA) Is frozen completely pretty much on schedule, or maybe 5 days late?

Chukchi Sea Freezing is late, very late, but looks like the only question is how late the complete freeze-up will be.

Hudson Bay Freeze started late but is now playing catch-up with a vengeance. But will final freeze be early, on time or late?
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

ATLANTIC FRONT
Greenland Sea Distinguishing any trend from the ups and downs of ice export from the CAB via the Fram Strait is impossible for me. So simply look at the graph.

Barents Sea Freezing early, but a long way to g.

Kara Sea A tale of 2 halves - late October freeze, very rapid November freeze.

Laptev Freeze started very late and finished only a few days late- Extent now  100%.

[gerontocrat]

The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

CENTRAL ARCTIC

This year the ESS and the Beaufort seemed to be more part of the Big Chukchi bite, but one year is only one year.

Beaufort Sea Late freeze but finished on time.
East Siberian Sea (ESS)    ----- ditto -----

Central Arctic Sea Was way above 2010's average extent most of the year. Is solidly at maximum in contrast with recent years.

And yet - experience from the MOSAIC project and Mike Horn's skiing holiday says the ice is thin and broken up.

[gerontocrat]

The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

Okhotsk Sea             Too early for comment.
St Lawrence Sea    ----- ditto -----

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 7^th, 2019:
     10,805,648 km², a century increase of 153,383 km².
     2019 is now 4^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,805,648 km2（December 7, 2019）

A fourth day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 153 k, 99k more than the average gain of 54k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,841 k, 335k (5.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,506 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 628 k more than 2016

- Extent is 7 k more than 2018
- Extent is 85 k (0.8%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 95 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.14 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.26 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.3  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

[Shared Humanity]

Thank you for all of this. I come here every day and really appreciate the insights your work provides me.

[Feeltheburn]

Not sure if it’s a misprint but NSIDC reported a one day extent gain of 262,000 km2, putting 2019 in 7th place.

[Juan C. García]

Not sure if it’s a misprint but NSIDC reported a one day extent gain of 262,000 km2, putting 2019 in 7th place.