2019 sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,553,665 km2（December 18, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 30 k, 30 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 60 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,589 k, 297 k (4.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,293 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 258 k more than 2016
- Extent is 10 k less than 2018
- Extent is 105 k (0.9%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 74.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 84 days on average to maximum.

We are entering the period when usually extent gains slow down significantly

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.10 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.22 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.1  to +0.4 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea decline a lot.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 18 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,567,607 km2

Total Area           10,567,607    km2        30,461    km2   >   2010's average.  88,122    km2   >   2018 -356,460    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    78    k   gain Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain Central Seas__    33    k   gain Other Seas___    24    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    8    k   gain CAA_________    4    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic_    5    k   gain           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______    13    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Daily gain 78 k, 24 k MORE than the 2010's average of 54 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 30 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 88 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 820 km2
- 2019 area now 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.1  to +0.4 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea decline a lot.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 19^th, 2019:
     11,614,871 km², an increase of 61,206 km².
     2019 is now 5^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,614,871 km2（December 19, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 61 k, 21 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,651 k, 318 k (4.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,333 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 255 k more than 2016
- Extent is 19 k more than 2018
- Extent is 84 k (0.7%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 74.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 83 days on average to maximum.

We are entering the period when usually extent gains slow down

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.12 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.24 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.2  to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines a lot.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 19 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,629,000 km2

Total Area           10,629,000    km2        35,792    km2   >   2010's average.  78,109    km2   >   2018 -363,485    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    61    k   gain Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain Central Seas__    17    k   gain Other Seas___    20    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    8    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    7    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__   -7    k   loss Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________   -2    k   loss Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Chukchi______    13    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    4    k   gain St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss Hudson Bay___    20    k   gain

Daily gain 61 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 56 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 36 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 78 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 802 km2
- 2019 area now 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.2  to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines a lot.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 20^th, 2019:
     11,681,468 km², an increase of 66,597 km².
     2019 is 5^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,681,468 km2（December 20, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 67 k, 34 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 33 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,717 k, 352 k (4.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,365 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 234 k more than 2016
- Extent is 70 k more than 2018
- Extent is 53k (0.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 74.8 % of extent gain for the the season done, 82 days on average to maximum.

We are entering the period when usually extent gains slow down

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.16 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.28 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.1  to -0.1 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines a lot. Okhotsk cold, Bering becoming cold.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast, though may weaken in the coming days.
____________________________________________________________
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 20 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,694,441  km2

Total Area           10,694,441    km2        45,156    km2   >   2010's average.  77,312    km2   >   2018 -360,553    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    65    k   gain Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain Central Seas__    18    k   gain Other Seas___    25    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain Greenland____    8    k   gain Barents ______    7    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    8    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__   -7    k   loss Central Arctic_    2    k   gain           Kara_________   -5    k   loss Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Chukchi______    17    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    9    k   gain St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Daily gain 65 k, 9 k MORE than the 2010's average of 56 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 45 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 77 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 790 km2
- 2019 area now 7th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.1  to -0.1 celsius over the next 5 days. High +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea declines a lot. Okhotsk cold, Bering becoming cold.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast, though may weaken in the coming days.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 21^st, 2019:
     11,782,333 km², a century increase of 100,865 km².
     2019 is now 6^th lowest on record.

[Stephan]

Thank you for keeping us up to date, Juan. 
It is one of the few days in 2019 with a daily value (slightly) above the 2010s average.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,782,333 km2（December 21, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 101 k, 56 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 45 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,818 k, 408 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,410 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 291 k more than 2016
- Extent is 122k more than 2018
- Extent is 2 k (0.0%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 75.3 % of extent gain for the the season done, 81 days on average to maximum.

We are entering the period when usually extent gains slow down

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.21 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.33 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.1  to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days, though it looks as if there is a small +ve anomaly over the main Arctic ocean.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast, though weakening in the coming days.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 21 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,757,317   km2

Total Area           10,757,317    km2        50,143    km2   >   2010's average.  57,121    km2   >   2018 -360,727    km2   <   2000's average.           Total Change    63    k   gain Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain Central Seas__    21    k   gain Other Seas___    22    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Bering _______    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain Greenland____    10    k   gain Barents ______    3    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    9    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -9    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________   -2    k   loss Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    19    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    11    k   gain St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss Hudson Bay___    17    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 58 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 50 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 57 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 813 km2
- 2019 area now 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +2.1  to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days, though it looks as if there is a small +ve anomaly over the main Arctic ocean.

NullSchool still says Atlantic winds strong, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast, though weakening in the coming days.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

Thank you for keeping us up to date, Juan. 
It is one of the few days in 2019 with a daily value (slightly) above the 2010s average.

You are welcome, Stephan. 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 22^st, 2019:
     11,863,461 km², an increase of 81,128 km².
     2019 is now 7^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,863,461 km2（December 22, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 81 k, 41 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,899 k, 448 k (6.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,451 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 463 k more than 2016
- Extent is 111 k more than 2018
- Extent is 44 k (0.4%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 75.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 80 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.25 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.37 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +1.8  to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days, though it looks as if there is a small +ve anomaly over the main Arctic ocean. Okhotsk and Bering Seas looking cold.

NullSchool still says the strong Atlantic winds, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast, are weakening with variable direction.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,831,594 km2

Total Area           10,831,594    km2        72,185    km2   >   2010's average.  36,419    km2   >   2018 -348,449    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     74    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     13    k   gain  Central Seas__     31    k   gain  Other Seas___     30    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     2    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain  Greenland____     5    k   gain  Barents ______    -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    9    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__   -7    k   loss Central Arctic_    1    k   gain           Kara_________    0    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    25    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    14    k   gain St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Daily gain 74 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 52 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 72 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 36 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 863 km2
- 2019 area now 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +1.8  to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days, though it looks as if there is a small +ve anomaly over the main Arctic ocean. Okhotsk and Bering Seas looking cold.

NullSchool still says the strong Atlantic winds, mostly heading down the Atlantic Front from the Kara Sea to down the Greenland East Coast, are weakening with variable direction.
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 23^st, 2019:
    I have not been able to retrieve the new data. I'm going to bed.
    If someone else updates the values.
    Thank you! 
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[gerontocrat]

Still no JAXA data

[mabarnes]

Weird.  No data yet, but the 12/23 image is up - animated from 12/18-12/23, with 22/23 flip-flop 3 times at the end ....

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,926,350  km2

Total Area           10,926,350    km2        125,929    km2   >   2010's average.  60,665    km2   >   2018 -309,889    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     94    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     16    k   gain  Central Seas__     43    k   gain  Other Seas___     36    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     3    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain  Greenland____     4    k   gain  Barents ______    -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    9    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss           Kara_________    2    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Chukchi______    33    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    16    k   gain St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Daily gain 94 k, 53 k MORE than the 2010's average of 41 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 126 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 61 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 956 km2
- 2019 area 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Too lazy to look, Armageddon can wait until 2020.
________________________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

Because I am bored (crap on the TV), and some of you may be desperate for your JAXA data fix, here is some methadone.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  12,168,920 km2（December 23, 2019）
5 days trailing average data

- Extent gain on this day 80 k, 44 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 36 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,016 k, 337k (4.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,679 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 389 k more than 2016
- Extent is 42 k more than 2018
- Extent is 18 k (0.1%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 75.9 % of extent gain for the the season done, 79 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.57 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.33 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Who knows?
____________________________________________________________

[mabarnes]

Dec 24 & 25 JAXA Extent back up, or now up, or ... here they are:

Dec 23 - 11,985,836    - gain of 122,375
Dec 24 - 12,064,159    - gain of   78,323

A cold wind from Santa's sleigh to the ice...?  Merry Christmas!

[Juan C. García]

Dec 24 & 25 JAXA Extent back up, or now up, or ... here they are:

Dec 23 - 11,985,836    - gain of 122,375
Dec 24 - 12,064,159    - gain of   78,323

A cold wind from Santa's sleigh to the ice...?  Merry Christmas!

Thank you for your post, mabarnes. 
Merry Christmas!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 24^st, 2019:
     12,064,159 km², an increase of 78,323 km².
     2019 is now 8^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

This grumpy old man wishes you an average 25th December. Scrooge was an amateur misery-guts. I am a professional.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  12,064,159 km2（December 24, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 78 k, 41 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,100 k, 572 k (7.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,528 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 662 k more than 2016
- Extent is 277 k more than 2018
- Extent is 166 k (1.4%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 76.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 77 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year somewhat different so far.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.38 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.50 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Who knows?
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 24 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,018,355  km2

Total Area           11,018,355    km2        181,099    km2   >   2010's average.  121,329    km2   >   2018 -277,419    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     92    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain  Central Seas__     45    k   gain  Other Seas___     35    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     3    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain  Greenland____     3    k   gain  Barents ______    -1    k   loss           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss           Kara_________    3    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Chukchi______    33    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    18    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain

Daily gain 92 k, 55 k MORE than the 2010's average of 37 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 181 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 121 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,043 km2
- 2019 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

These high gains in extent and area are becoming an event.
But too lazy to look for the why of it all. Armageddon can wait until 2020.

Just wondering if low snowcover in lower latitudes and Europe suggests WACC is currently in reverse, i.e. extra cold in high latitudes, warmth in lower latitudes.
________________________________________________________________________

[charles_oil]

Certainly quite warm here in South-West France, no sign of freezing conditions yet (projection 4 - 12 deg c for next 10 nights/days), but has been crazy wet.
 
Seasons greetings and thanks for the informative, regular posts.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 25^st, 2019:
     12,139,528 km², an increase of 75,369 km².
     2019 is 8^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  12,139,528 km2（December 25, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 75 k, 23 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 52 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,175 k, 595 k (7.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,580 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 633 k more than 2016
- Extent is 328 k more than 2018
- Extent is 191 k (1.6%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 77.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 77 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year somewhat different so far.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.40 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.52 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.1  to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days, though it looks as if there is a small +ve anomaly over the main Arctic ocean. Bering Seas looking very cold.
____________________________________________________________

[blumenkraft]

... 77.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 77 days on average to maximum...

Aww <3

[gerontocrat]

... 77.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 77 days on average to maximum...

Aww <3

Je ne comprends pas "Aww <3". It is Boxing day and my brain hurts.

[blumenkraft]

I find this to look cute, Gerontocrat. Just a warm and fuzzy feeling the two 77s gave me.

Happy holidays, Sir. And thanks a million for your contributions.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 25 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,105,425  km2

Total Area           11,105,425    km2        234,756    km2   >   2010's average.  192,886    km2   >   2018 -245,586    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     87    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     18    k   gain  Central Seas__     43    k   gain  Other Seas___     27    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     6    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain  Greenland____     3    k   gain  Barents ______     0    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    4    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    5    k   gain Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss           Kara_________    6    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______    31    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    14    k   gain St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    14    k   gain

Daily gain 87 k, 54 k MORE than the 2010's average of 33 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 235 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 193 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,104 km2
- 2019 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

These high gains in extent and area are becoming an event. Area increased from 4th lowest to 9th lowest area in the last 9 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.1  to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days, though it looks as if there is a small +ve anomaly over the main Arctic ocean. Bering Sea and Alaska looking very cold. Occasional warmth in the Atlantic front.

Just wondering if low snowcover in lower latitudes and Europe suggests WACC is currently in reverse, i.e. extra cold in high latitudes, warmth in lower latitudes.
________________________________________________________________________

[gandul]

Yeah the outlook is for a very cold Arctic including key peripheral region Bering at this time. Until end of year at least.

I would think 2019 the event you see will continue for a week, area and extent are going to end the year very well above the 2010s.
Starting the 2020s...

[MrGreeny]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 26th 2019:
    12,214,161 km2 an increase of 74,633 km2


Juan's post will be coming soon.

[mabarnes]

With low cloud cover leaving the Arctic open to radiate unimpaired to space, plus "offshore" (quotes to signify of the ice mass as well as land) winds over the peripheral seas and cold temperatures, 2019 is closing out with a bang for ice formation. 

Interesting situation ... extent is second only to 2014 for the date, for the decade, and exceeds end-of-year extent for 4 of the years.  Chart shows the current numbers vs. the rest of decade, and what would be needed to end the year "on top" - looks like top 3 or 4 is makeable, #1 for the decade of the "twenty-teens" a long shot ...

Table - red indicates year at left is LESS than 2019, or LOSS would be needed to equal on 12/31.
Color bands in gif green, blue, light blue demarcate 10 to 0, 0 to -10, and -10 to -20 C.

To the "old hands" out there ... wondering if this is what the "old normal" used to look like...? 
A glimpse of the past, for a week at least...?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  12,214,161 km2（December 26, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 75 k, 20 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 55 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,250 k, 615 k (8.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,635 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 593 k more than 2016
- Extent is 371 k more than 2018
- Extent is 215 k (1.8%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 77.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 76 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year very different so far. Extent gains have been high enough for 2019 extent to move from 2nd lowest to 9th lowest in just 2 weeks.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.54 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.7  to -1.1 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.
____________________________________________________________

[pleun]

These high gains in extent and area are becoming an event.
But too lazy to look for the why of it all. Armageddon can wait until 2020.

Just wondering if low snowcover in lower latitudes and Europe suggests WACC is currently in reverse, i.e. extra cold in high latitudes, warmth in lower latitudes.
________________________________________________________________________

wouldn't it have something to do with the shape of the stratospheric polar vortex which is divided into 3 parts for some time now ? just wondering ...

[Niall Dollard]

To the "old hands" out there ... wondering if this is what the "old normal" used to look like...? 
A glimpse of the past, for a week at least...?

Replying to this in the freezing thread, if that's ok ?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 26 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,194,922 km2

Total Area           11,194,922    km2        292,689    km2   >   2010's average.  279,500    km2   >   2018 -205,975    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     89    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain  Central Seas__     43    k   gain  Other Seas___     24    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     8    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain  Greenland____     3    k   gain  Barents ______     2    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    7    k   gain Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Chukchi______    29    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    12    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain

Daily gain 89 k, 57 k MORE than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 293 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 280 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,126 km2
- 2019 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

These high gains in extent and area are becoming an event. Area increased from 4th lowest to 9th lowest area in the last 10 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.7  to -1.1 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.

Just wondering if low snowcover in lower latitudes and Europe suggests WACC is currently in reverse, i.e. extra cold in high latitudes, warmth in lower latitudes.

goto Freezing thread if you wish to comment /debate
________________________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 26th 2019:
    12,214,161 km2 an increase of 74,633 km2


Juan's post will be coming soon.

Sorry that I missed to post yesterday. I am having holiday on California with my family and we drove yesterday from Los Angeles to San Francisco. With a dense traffic and another distractions, a 7 hour journey end up being 14 hours. Other than that, the holiday is great. 

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 27^th, 2019:
     12,259,655 km², an increase of 45,494 km².
     2019 is 8^th lowest on record.

[blumenkraft]

Have a wonderful time, Juan.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  12,259,655 km2（December 27, 2019）

- Extent gain on this day 45 k, 13 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 58 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,295 k, 603 k (7.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,693 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 484 k more than 2016
- Extent is 414 k more than 2018
- Extent is 205 k (1.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 78.2 % of extent gain for the the season done, 75 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year very different so far until this day. Extent gain on this day below average for a change.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.41 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.54 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.7  to -1.2 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 27 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,262,809 km2

Total Area           11,262,809    km2        320,171    km2   >   2010's average.  350,962    km2   >   2018 -180,381    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     68    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     30    k   gain  Central Seas__     29    k   gain  Other Seas___     10    k   gain            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     9    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain  Greenland____     4    k   gain  Barents ______     6    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    6    k   gain Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss           Kara_________    4    k   gain Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______    22    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    8    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 68 k, 28 k MORE than the 2010's average of 40 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 320 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 351 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,102 km2
- 2019 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

These high gains in area are becoming an event. Area increased from 4th lowest to 10th lowest area in the last 11 days. Signs of a slowdown in daily gains?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.7  to -1.2 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.

Just wondering if low snowcover in lower latitudes and Europe suggests WACC is currently in reverse, i.e. extra cold in high latitudes, warmth in lower latitudes.

goto Freezing thread if you wish to comment /debate
________________________________________________________________________
[/quote]

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 28^th, 2019:
     12,259,819 km², an increase of only  164 km².
     2019 is now 6^th lowest on record.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,259,819 km2（December 28, 2019）

Extent gain stalled, and no idea why. A one day wonder?

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 57 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 57 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,295 k, 546 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,749 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 382 k more than 2016
- Extent is 388 k more than 2018
- Extent is 148 k (1.2%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 78.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 74 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - this year very different so far until this day. Extent gain on this day below average for a change.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.47 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.1 to -1.0 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.
____________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total Area as at 28 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 11,300,815 km2

Total Area           11,300,815    km2        304,813    km2   >   2010's average.  384,064    km2   >   2018 -180,828    km2   <   2000's average.            Total Change     38    k   gain  Peripheral Seas     22    k   gain  Central Seas__     16    k   gain  Other Seas___    -0    k   loss            Peripheral Seas            Bering _______     11    k   gain  Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain  Greenland____    -1    k   loss  Barents ______     4    k   gain           CAB Seas          Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss           Kara_________    5    k   gain Laptev_______   -2    k   loss Chukchi______    14    k   gain           Other Seas          Okhotsk______    5    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Daily gain 38 k, 15 k LESS than the 2010's average of 53 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 305 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 384 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,021 km2
- 2019 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area in the last 11 days a below average gain (and a daily extent loss).

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.1 to -1.0 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chuckchi.
________________________________________________________________________

[Phil.]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,259,819 km2（December 28, 2019）

Extent gain stalled, and no idea why. A one day wonder?

Well looking at your graphs it happened around this time in previous years.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Maybe extant growth has been so much we are running out of area to freeze?

[karl dubhe2]

As long as it doesn't start melting this early...   

[blumenkraft]

goto Freezing thread if you wish to comment /debate

[gerontocrat]

Freezing season graphs attached...

1. Pacific Gateway

Bering sea ice area just starting to climb from a late start.
Chukchi almost full up ice