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Poll

What will be the JAXA maximum this year in million sq km?

>14.5
14.375 to 14.625
14.25 to 14.5
14.125 to 14.375
14 to 14.25
13.875 to 14.125
13.75 to 14
13.625 to 13.875
13.5 to 13.75
13.375 to 13.625
13.25 to 13.5
13.125 to 13.375
<13.25

Voting closes: January 31, 2019, 01:02:13 PM

Author Topic: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum  (Read 931 times)

Paddy

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January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 05, 2019, 01:02:13 PM »
What do you think the max will be this year? Poll closes end of January, and you can change your vote any time before the poll closes.

Previous maximums in million square km:

2018: 13.89
2017: 13.88
2016: 13.96
2015: 13.94
2014: 14.45
2013: 14.52
2012: 14.71
2011: 14.13
2010: 14.69
2009: 14.66
2008: 14.77
2007: 14.21
2006: 14.13
2005: 14.4

Link to last year's poll here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2236.0.html
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 07:56:13 PM by Neven »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2019, 02:54:01 PM »
Five votes (so far) and five different guesses.  Only one covers (includes) previous 4 years' experience.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Stephan

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2019, 04:14:35 PM »
I bet it's gonna be close to 14 M km², so I voted for the bin that is centered around 14 M

oren

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2019, 04:19:14 PM »
I don't think there will be a new record. I think the Pacific side will be more normal than last year. Thought to vote 14-14.25 but then I saw the convenient bin of 13.875-14.125.

Paddy

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2019, 05:55:30 PM »
Five votes (so far) and five different guesses.  Only one covers (includes) previous 4 years' experience.

I think some people are voting above (myself included) because current JAXA is well above 3 out of the past 4 years (and still slightly above the 4th) https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg185776.html#msg185776.

Wherestheice

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2019, 11:09:54 PM »
Things could change, but i expect somewhere around 13.90-14
"When the ice goes..... F***

Juan C. García

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2019, 03:44:24 AM »
I bet it's gonna be close to 14 M km², so I voted for the bin that is centered around 14 M

+1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2019, 07:57:41 PM »
14 to 14.25, for now, but I'll probably re-vote after the SSW.
Compare, compare, compare

binntho

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2019, 09:56:19 AM »
Not sure if constancy redeems sillyness, but having been silly enough to predict a new min-max this year, I'm forced to go for a bin that guarantees it (13.625-13.875) but dare not go any lower.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2019, 04:44:05 PM »
The distribution of votes/guesses is more normal now.  Edit:  it's even more 'normal' after the latest vote added.  Image replaced.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 06:33:05 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Pmt111500

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2019, 05:13:01 PM »
It'll be 13,98. (goes back to the bench by the wall, sits down and introverts himself despising categories)
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

echoughton

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2019, 06:01:41 PM »
going with 14-25 bin. I feel upmystic.  8)

Sterks

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2019, 08:00:44 AM »
14-14.25. Time for a little "rebound".

Paddy

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2019, 12:02:48 AM »
Going down half a bin to 14 - 14.25, and considering going down half a bin more, now that extent's down to 4th lowest on record.

Paddy

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2019, 11:57:30 PM »
To the two respondents at the extreme ends of this poll (>14.5 and <13.25): would you rather I had included a wider range of values, and exactly how high / low are you predicting the max might be?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« Reply #15 on: Today at 06:32:08 AM »
Hey Paddy,

i'm the one who voted <13.25.

I'm thinking somewhere below the 2018 outcome of 13.89 so this option fits. The range of values is fine imho.