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Author Topic: 2019 ENSO  (Read 612 times)

Darvince

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2019 ENSO
« on: January 07, 2019, 06:52:08 AM »
Note that it's 2019, and a new thread could be made.

Please include a long record of ENSO in the opening post.
Trimonthly ONI since 1950:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm


And seeing as all US government climate websites are currently unavailable, here is this archived page from December 17th last year: http://web.archive.org/web/20181217235025/www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/

And the current 30-day moving average SOI from the BoM:

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2019, 03:05:37 PM »
Although Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is not currently on lock out...


Climate Model Summary for January to May 2019

Issued 17 December 2018 Updated 18 December 2018 Next issue 16 January 2019

Models maintain El Niño thresholds for the ocean, but atmosphere yet to respond
Quote
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at or above El Niño thresholds over the past two months. However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño remain neutral, indicating the ocean and atmosphere are not yet coupled (i.e. not reinforcing each other to help sustain the El Niño state).

Five of eight model outlooks suggest El Niño levels will be maintained through to May 2018, while the other three forecast SSTs in the neutral range. It must be noted that model accuracy forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year.
Other reports coming out tomorrow (Jan. 8 )
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 05:20:14 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2019, 05:17:20 PM »
Quote
Models maintain El Niño thresholds for the ocean, but atmosphere yet to respond

How unusual is this?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2019, 05:26:04 PM »
I cannot answer your question, Sigmetnow, but a report released yesterday talks about the issues involved:
Quote
Some recent cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean
 
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.

While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.

The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.

Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.
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Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2019, 05:50:32 PM »

Trimonthly ONI since 1950:
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm



Thank you !  Looks like the 60š were a lot less in La Nina than I remembered.
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Rodius

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2019, 02:42:42 AM »
Down to +2.0

Comment from the site.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 6 January was +6.2, and the 90-day SOI was +4.0. The SOI has remained within the neutral ENSO range since early September. There have been fluctuations over recent recent weeks, however during the southern hemisphere summer the SOI is more volatile due to the passage of tropical storms and should therefore be viewed with caution.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 ENSO
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2019, 06:13:40 PM »
From NOAA: updated January 14, 2019 (despite the government closure)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Forecast/figf4.shtml
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