2019 ENSO

[gerontocrat]

AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

So do they say we are going to get one in the next 18 months ?
Or do they want it to be a surprise?

[vox_mundi]

AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

So do they say we are going to get one in the next 18 months ?
Or do they want it to be a surprise?

Apparently a surprise.

The study covered 1984 to 2017. Perhaps, they don't want to press their luck.

[Pmt111500]

AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

So do they say we are going to get one in the next 18 months ?
Or do they want it to be a surprise?

This is an interesting topic in that, the AI looks like it could take the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 into account in the radiation balance of tropical Pacific, but somehow failed with the earlier 1980 Mt.St. Helens eruption.. or maybe they didn't try to account any earlier Ninos. Anyway when I looked on this, it looked like both of them disturbed the normal cycle of ENSO, only that they did it differently. This is fer sure not surprising as they are on the opposite sides of Pacific, and St.Helens is much to the north. My guess s if they tried the same with data of 1950s to 1979 they'd also find a good correlation.

(The ENSO cycle is likely driven by tidal forces but the changes in the radiation balance induced by volcanos makes the cycle sometimes skip normal progress of things. By how much is possibly governed by the location of the disturbance. As the tides repeat their monthly cycle nonetheless, the effect of temporary SOx injection blocking sunlight might be possible to be substracted from the evaluation function. The trouble still is that sometimes it looks like El Nino should (by calculus) start in summer and this almost never happens IRL (in real life) (possible summer la nada). Still, it looked to me that it should be possible to predict El Nino with two year accuracy (either it happens on one year or the next one), which is of course of no use to anyone. Thus I didn't try to push the academic exercise any further, and in fact couldn't as I couldn't figure out how to account locations of disturbances.

Hope this study does the same but way better.

[Steven]

AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

So do they say we are going to get one in the next 18 months ?
Or do they want it to be a surprise?

The forecasts from their Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model are available here:

http://168.131.122.201/blog/index.php/enso-forecast/

[gerontocrat]

AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

So do they say we are going to get one in the next 18 months ?
Or do they want it to be a surprise?

The forecasts from their Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model are available here:

http://168.131.122.201/blog/index.php/enso-forecast/

The Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) often mention the "Spring barrier" - i.e. forecasts have much greater uncertainty when looking through and beyond the next spring to the following summer. Looks like the same with their forecast model - sudden drops in confidence levels.

[gerontocrat]

Latest ENSO discussion from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Record & near record Global Temps in an ENSO neutral year.
What will happen when the next strong El Nino arrives?
Until then, how much more heat are the oceans going to gobble up?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 October 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~85% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance).

Near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were evident in the east-central Pacific Ocean during most of September, though SST anomalies increased during the past couple of weeks [Fig. 1]. In the last week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +1.0°C and +0.5°C, respectively, and the indices in the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions remained near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased during the month [Fig. 3] partially because a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave expanded eastward [Fig. 4]. This wave was triggered by low-level westerly wind anomalies across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. At upper-levels, easterly wind anomalies prevailed over much of the Pacific during September. Also, the region of suppressed convection over Indonesia intensified and expanded to the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Despite the recent warming, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during the next month or so before decreasing, but remaining above zero. Consequently, forecasters believe the recent oceanic warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. However, chances for El Niño remain between approximately 25-30% through the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~85% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 November 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Tor Bejnar]

Here's Australia's Bureau of Meteorology ENSO outlook (only 4 months into the future).

[Tom_Mazanec]

So there probably won't be an El Nino this year, am I correct?

[bluesky]

"El Niño events cause serious shifts in weather patterns across the globe, and an important question that scientists have sought to answer is: how will climate change affect the generation of strong El Niño events? A new study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science by a team of international climate researchers led by Bin Wang of the University of Hawaii's International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), has an answer to that question. Results show that since the late 1970's, climate change effects have shifted the El Niño onset location from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and caused more frequent extreme El Niño events. Continued warming over the western Pacific warm pool promises conditions that will trigger more extreme events in the future."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191021153346.htm

[gerontocrat]

ENSO Update from the USA Climate Prediction Center

No surprises...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 November 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance).

Near-to-above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean during October [Fig. 1]. In the most recent week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +0.7°C and +0.5°C, respectively, while farther east in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions they were near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average during the month [Fig. 3] as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that began in September continued progressing eastward into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average during October, while easterly upper-level wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific. Finally, tropical convection was suppressed near the Date Line and also over Indonesia, while somewhat enhanced convection prevailed over the western Pacific, northeast of Papua New Guinea [Fig. 5]. Overall, despite the recent anomalous warming across the east-central equatorial Pacific, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 December 2019.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Rodius]

Here is an interesting article about the link between the 18.6 luna cycle and El Nino
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4

Next year is the predicted El Nino based on this method.

I read, but cant find, an article that talks about an accurate method of predicting El Nino out to 18 months that predicted an El Nino in 2020. I wish I could find it again but cant, but this will remind me to keep looking or maybe someone else knows where it is and post it here.

[kassy]

It might be hidden in post #49?

Posted by: vox_mundi
« on: September 19, 2019, 06:00:27 PM »Insert Quote
AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

And another new approach:

If this model has the accuracy claimed, expect a new low/near new low in the 2020-2022 period.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-predict-el-nino-2020-163608017.html

Also see link #56 in that thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2872.msg237349.html#new

[vox_mundi]

El Niño Swings More Violently in the Industrial Age, Compelling Hard Evidence Says
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-el-nino-violently-industrial-age.html

A new study has found compelling evidence in the Pacific Ocean that the stronger El Ninos are part of a climate pattern that is new and strange.

It is the first known time that enough physical evidence spanning millennia has come together to allow researchers to say definitively that: El Ninos, La Ninas, and the climate phenomenon that drives them have become more extreme in the times of human-induced climate change.

"What we're seeing in the last 50 years is outside any natural variability. It leaps off the baseline. Actually, we even see this for the entire period of the industrial age," said Kim Cobb, the study's principal investigator and professor in the Georgia Institute of Technology's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. "There were three extremely strong El Nino-La Nina events in the 50-year period, but it wasn't just these events. The entire pattern stuck out."

The study's first author Pam Grothe compared temperature-dependent chemical deposits from present-day corals with those of older coral records representing relevant sea surface temperatures from the past 7,000 years. The team found the industrial age ENSO swings to be 25% stronger than in the pre-industrial records.

The corals' recordings of sea surface temperatures proved to be astonishingly accurate when benchmarked. Coral records from 1981 to 2015 matched sea surface temperatures measured via satellite in the same period so exactly that, on a graph, the jagged lines of the coral record covered those of the satellite measurements, obscuring them from view.

... To stress-test the data, Grothe left out chunks to see if the industrial age ENSO signal still stuck out. She removed the record-setting 1997/1998 El Nino-La Nina and examined industrial age windows of time between 30 and 100 years long.

The signal held in all windows, but the data needed the 97/98 event to be statistically significant. This could mean that changes in the ENSO activities have just now reached a threshold that makes them detectable.



Pamela R. Grothe et al, Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades, Geophysical Research Letters (2019).

Key Points

• Line Island corals provide 1,751 years of monthly‐resolved ENSO variability from the mid‐Holocene to present
• ENSO strength is significantly weaker between 3,000 and 5,000 years ago compared to the 2,000‐year periods both before and after
• ENSO extremes of the last 50 years are significantly stronger than those of the pre‐industrial era in the central tropical Pacific

[Rodius]

It might be hidden in post #49?

OMG, that is it. And to think I looked for it here and still missed it.
Thank you

[Bruce Steele]

The PDO index has gone negative for the first time in several years.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

[gerontocrat]

Latest update from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

No drama. In fact boring.

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 December 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (~65% chance).

Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in the central tropical Pacific Ocean during November, with regions of above and below average SSTs observed farther east [Fig. 1]. In the most recent week, the SST indices were near average in the east-central and eastern Niño regions (+0.1°C to +0.3°C) and were above average in the westernmost Niño-4 region (+0.9°C; [Fig. 2]). The equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) returned to near zero during the month [Fig. 3], reflecting the progression of Kelvin waves to the east [Fig. 4]. The low-level winds were near average during November, while easterly upper-level wind anomalies were observed over the western Pacific. Finally, tropical convection was suppressed near and east of the Date Line and also over Indonesia, and somewhat enhanced over the western Pacific northeast of Papua New Guinea [Fig. 5]. The overall oceanic and atmospheric system was consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Many dynamical model forecasts suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values may remain near +0.5°C into December before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters agree with this consensus and believe the chances for El Niño to be 25-30% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (~65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 January 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740