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Author Topic: Sea Level Rise Accelerating  (Read 4414 times)

salbers

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Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« on: March 04, 2018, 07:40:20 PM »
A recent PNAS paper shows SLR is accelerating at .08mm/yr^2. One can look at the doubling time of each component and there we see Antarctic Ice Sheets have a relatively low contribution now, though the shortest doubling time, on the order of 6 years. The overall doubling rate of the rise is roughly 35 years.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/02/06/1717312115

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2018, 08:02:08 PM »
Still, the rather conservative value of 65 cm rise by the year 2100.

salbers

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2018, 08:06:49 PM »
Indeed the 65cm value is a reasonable estimate of a simple quadratic extrapolation. One might also calculate a quadratic estimate of each component. Then the sum of the total will no longer be quadratic. The Antarctic component doubling each 6 years would come to dominate and the total value by 2100 seems it could be more than 65cm.

vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 08:08:14 PM »
Modest Warming Risks 'Irreversible' Ice Sheet Loss

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Scientists have known for decades that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are shrinking, but it had been assumed that they would survive a 1.5-2C temperature rise relatively intact.

However, according to a new analysis published in the journal Nature Climate Change, even modest global warming could cause irreversible damage to the polar ice, contributing to catastrophic sea level rises.

"We say that 1.5-2C is close to the limit for which more dramatic effects may be expected from the ice sheets," Frank Pattyn, head of the department of geosciences, Free University of Brussels and lead study author, told AFP.

 Many models of the 1.5-2C scenario allow for the threshold to be breached in the short term, potentially heating the planet several degrees higher, before using carbon capture and other technologies to bring temperatures back into line by 2100.

The study warned against this approach, however, saying that a feedback loop set off by higher temperatures would "lead to self-sustained melting of the entire ice sheet" even if those rises were later offset.

For Greenland, the team said with 95 percent certainty that major ice sheet decline would occur at 1.8C worth of warming.

"For both Greenland and Antarctica, tipping points are known to exist for warming levels that could be reached before the end of this century," said Pattyn.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming, Nature Climate Change (2018
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 08:28:59 PM by vox_mundi »
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wili

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2018, 01:30:02 PM »
https://www.axios.com/sea-level-rise-will-be-costly-if-we-dont-take-action-8d63cf4a-db07-4512-a97b-5718920aaa38.html

Rising sea levels could cost the U.S. trillions

Andrew Freedman

Quote
...parts of Antarctica are far less stable than previously thought. That's why its sea level rise projections are higher than prior reports from the...IPCC...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wolfpack513

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2018, 05:52:53 AM »
It has been mention a lot but once the selling starts for coastal properties it’s going to get bad.  People will lose equity/savings and that of course will impact the greater economy.  You don’t want to be the last house on the block to put the “for sale” sign up.  This alone will be trillions before the water rises.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2019, 09:47:40 AM »
Global sea level rise began to accelerate in the 1960s, 30 years earlier than suggested by previous assessments, a new study finds.

Quote
Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0531-8



Klondike Kat

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2019, 03:01:34 PM »
According to his analysis, continued acceleration in SLR would reach ~10 mm/year by 2100, resulting in a total additional rise of about half a meter.

Juan C. García

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2019, 09:08:54 PM »
This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea
http://sealevelstudy.org/sea-change-science/whats-in-a-number/attractive-ice-sheets
Great post of Freegrass.
I think that it should be also posted here.

Links to the video:
NASA: https://sealevel.nasa.gov/resources/78/monthly-changes-in-gravity-affect-sea-level
Youtube:
« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 12:24:56 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2019, 09:21:11 PM »
Shoreline industry poses hazards as sea level, floods increase
https://www.bayjournal.com/article/shoreline_industry_poses_hazards_as_sea_level_floods_increase
Quote
But with the Earth warming and sea level rising, many riverside clusters of industry are ground zero for rising waters — posing a new risk for the environment and those living nearby.

In a report issued this spring, the Center for Progressive Reform finds that almost 1,100 industrial facilities in Virginia’s James River watershed that use state or federally regulated chemicals are exposed to both potential flooding and projected sea level rise. Worse, they are located in socially vulnerable communities where residents have the fewest resources to escape a disaster’s effects.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2019, 03:34:49 AM »
15 To 20 Foot Sea Level Rise Possible Sooner Rather Than Later
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/13/15-to-20-foot-sea-level-rise-possible-sooner-rather-than-later/
Quote
Why is Alley’s threat assessment greater than the people who are preparing reports for IPCC? Bureaucracy, mostly. They are written in collaboration with a large group of scientists and are often watered down by endless debate and consensus-building. In total there are 18 lead authors and 69 contributing authors on the chapter that considers sea-level rise. Also, by the time the final reports are written, the underlying data is often not the most current available.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS