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What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 33

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 11927 times)

rboyd

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #100 on: April 15, 2019, 10:58:40 PM »
2018 increase in global atmospheric methane levels

NOAA's preliminary figures are for a rise of 10.99ppb in 2018, quite a jump from the 6.89ppb last year. Biggest jump since 2014. Will give the CO2e increase for the year quite a boost.

Anything to do with Trump watering down the fugitive methane regulations Obama put in place, together with the large jumps in US fracked oil production in 2018? There must be a lot of methane floating above Texas.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38992

And US oil production is still surging....

US expects record domestic oil production in 2019, 2020

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-expects-record-domestic-oil-production-2019-2020-61023486

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #101 on: April 16, 2019, 03:52:32 AM »
Where will this end?

This, of course, depends on whether we take effective actions to curb emissions. My guess? Between 600 and 800 ppm.

+500 ppm by 2050 at least (imho)
which simply means an average increase of 3 ppm/year for the next 31 years [to reach 500 ppm]. This is probably too low/too optimistic if we follow the RCP 8.5 path...

Probably, but do you recall or find which IPCC report iteration (esp. AR5) had the RCP 8.5 hitting 500 ppm CO2 by 2050? I don't recall one off hand.
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

rboyd

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #102 on: April 16, 2019, 04:45:08 AM »
Probably, but do you recall or find which IPCC report iteration (esp. AR5) had the RCP 8.5 hitting 500 ppm CO2 by 2050? I don't recall one off hand.

AR5

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #103 on: April 16, 2019, 05:34:28 AM »
Thanks, I plugged in a page search for '2050' and out of the 88 matches I could not find any text or graph that shows what the expected CO2 levels might be in 2050 for any of the RCP scenarios.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 05:48:53 AM by Lurk »
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #104 on: April 16, 2019, 06:03:05 AM »
Its greenhouse gases as a whole that cause climate change, not just CO2.

Yes of course, that's correct. And also very relevant to overall warming especially going forward.

But as a much more closely monitored and therefore more consistent oft reported proxy for success/failure, CO2 is an excellent superior guide to monitor, and so this thread (I imagine)

eg April 14: 414.56 ppm. as suggested above re this week coming, that number is still +3.50 ppm above last years weekly average.

These are more like 2016 super el nino numbers (but time will tell long term in 2019) 
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #105 on: April 16, 2019, 10:32:22 AM »
ENSO effects on above average CO2 growth readings?

From Australia BOM
Still have the setting on El Nino Alert
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2539.msg195577.html#msg195577
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

rboyd

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #106 on: April 16, 2019, 09:20:37 PM »
Its greenhouse gases as a whole that cause climate change, not just CO2.

Yes of course, that's correct. And also very relevant to overall warming especially going forward.

But as a much more closely monitored and therefore more consistent oft reported proxy for success/failure, CO2 is an excellent superior guide to monitor, and so this thread (I imagine)

CH4 emissions are tracked monthly by NOAA, and with the 20-year impact being 100 times that of CO2, the combination of tracking the two gives a much better view of whats happening. The acceleration in CO2 is bad enough, I absolutely agree, the addition of increasing levels of CH4 makes it go from bad to worse. Also matches better to the acceleration in temperature changes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #107 on: April 16, 2019, 09:50:15 PM »
Probably, but do you recall or find which IPCC report iteration (esp. AR5) had the RCP 8.5 hitting 500 ppm CO2 by 2050? I don't recall one off hand.

AR5

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
Could you please give a page number or a chapter title of this IPCC report where the projections of CO2 concentration from today until 2100 are plotted (or listed) under the different RCP scenarios?
Thanks Stephan

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #108 on: April 16, 2019, 10:40:22 PM »
Probably, but do you recall or find which IPCC report iteration (esp. AR5) had the RCP 8.5 hitting 500 ppm CO2 by 2050? I don't recall one off hand.

AR5

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
Could you please give a page number or a chapter title of this IPCC report where the projections of CO2 concentration from today until 2100 are plotted (or listed) under the different RCP scenarios?
Thanks Stephan
I found it. It is on page 74. And 2050 will have around 500 ppm CO2 as expected with an annual growth of ca. 3 ppm from now on (see postings above).

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #109 on: April 17, 2019, 03:54:24 AM »
Probably, but do you recall or find which IPCC report iteration (esp. AR5) had the RCP 8.5 hitting 500 ppm CO2 by 2050? I don't recall one off hand.

AR5

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
Could you please give a page number or a chapter title of this IPCC report where the projections of CO2 concentration from today until 2100 are plotted (or listed) under the different RCP scenarios?
Thanks Stephan
I found it. It is on page 74. And 2050 will have around 500 ppm CO2 as expected with an annual growth of ca. 3 ppm from now on (see postings above).

Good catch Stephan! No wonder I missed it :)

The question is is a 'guess' based on my own assumptions that ends with +500ppm at least by 2050 reasonable or potentially probable? Or merely 'pie in the sky'.

Given that RCP 8.5 scenario which iirc was posited in the AR3 was based on the assumptions of no mitigation plus ongoing existing growth in emissions without constraints?

I ask because clearly there has been mitigation and shifts away from fossil fuels energy use to renewables since AR3. And yet might we still end up at the end of a RCP 8.5 anyway.
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #110 on: April 17, 2019, 04:06:21 AM »
Its greenhouse gases as a whole that cause climate change, not just CO2.

Yes of course, that's correct. And also very relevant to overall warming especially going forward.

But as a much more closely monitored and therefore more consistent oft reported proxy for success/failure, CO2 is an excellent superior guide to monitor, and so this thread (I imagine)

CH4 emissions are tracked monthly by NOAA, and with the 20-year impact being 100 times that of CO2, the combination of tracking the two gives a much better view of whats happening. The acceleration in CO2 is bad enough, I absolutely agree, the addition of increasing levels of CH4 makes it go from bad to worse. Also matches better to the acceleration in temperature changes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/

Yes. Both are important. I think I am saying that CO2 monitoring ties closer (to date at least) to the human forced emissions primarily of fossil fuels which in the big scheme of things is the main (higher %) driver. Even with fugitive methane emissions and a few other industrial sources and animals considered.

Then the looming present presents more critical 'natural' CO2 forcing being added, eg when global temps reach levels of the 2015/2016 super el nino becoming the norm and not the exception.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-pinpoints-cause-of-earth-s-recent-record-carbon-dioxide-spike/

If when this becomes the norm then CH4 will increasingly begin going off the charts as well.
( If? ) I'm more inclined, given the last 30 years of human history (of the UNFCCC etc.) suspect this to be expected and likely.   

And to really be out there, I also expect that by 2050 human driven CO2 emissions growth to be negligible and to have already fallen dramatically post 2035. Not that that will be any help at all by then. So no, I am not at all hopeful.
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

rboyd

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #111 on: April 17, 2019, 10:06:39 PM »
Lurk,

We certainly seem to share the same realistic/pessimistic view of things. As the shit truly starts to hit the fan I see increasingly desperate attempts at geo-engineering etc. but most probably too late as the Earth systems take back control from the humans. The Anthropocene may turn out to be a very short era.

At least the Mauna Loa numbers are taken directly from the atmosphere, rather than the anthropogenic emission numbers that are open to so much possible error and manipulation to be meaningless for identifying trends over a relevant time horizon. I have pretty much given up on those and just watch the atmospheric concentration numbers, the policy makers should be doing the same.

rboyd

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #112 on: April 17, 2019, 11:54:50 PM »
Thawing Permafrost Emitting Higher Levels of Potent Greenhouse Gas Than Previously Thought: Study

I had assumed that N20 atmospheric concentrations would stay on the same straight line increase that they have been on for decades, and certainly did not thinks permafrost thaw would change this. Seems every day I learn something new, and it tends not to be something good! N20 is 300 times worse than CO2 and lasts in the atmosphere for over 100 years.

Quote
N2O "has conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions," the report said, citing research published in the 1990s.

But the new study's findings challenge that assumption.

A team of researchers, led by Harvard University scientists, used a small plane to measure greenhouse gas levels over 120 square miles of thawing permafrost in the North Slope of Alaska. They found that in just one month of 2013, emissions of nitrous oxide in the region reached what was previously believed to be the yearly total.

"This revelation could mean that the Arctic—and our global climate—are in more danger than we thought," explained a statement from Harvard

Quote
What is clear, though, is that "much smaller increases in nitrous oxide would entail the same kind of climate change that a large plume of CO2 would cause," Wilkerson said.

The team's findings align with other recent studies that have relied on chambers—or "covered, pie plate-sized containers planted into tundra"—or the extraction of cylindrical "cores" from the permafrost to measure greenhouses gases, according to Harvard's statement.

The new study, said Wilkerson, "makes those findings quite a bit more serious."

The findings also bolster experts' previous warnings that policymakers around the world aren't adequately considering the impacts of permafrost thaw in their plans—based on the goals of the Paris climate agreement—to cut down planet-heating emissions and prevent climate catastrophe.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/04/16/thawing-permafrost-emitting-higher-levels-potent-greenhouse-gas-previously-thought

Lurk

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #113 on: Today at 02:55:03 AM »
Lurk,

We certainly seem to share the same realistic/pessimistic view of things. As the shit truly starts to hit the fan I see increasingly desperate attempts at geo-engineering etc. but most probably too late as the Earth systems take back control from the humans. The Anthropocene may turn out to be a very short era.

At least the Mauna Loa numbers are taken directly from the atmosphere, rather than the anthropogenic emission numbers that are open to so much possible error and manipulation to be meaningless for identifying trends over a relevant time horizon. I have pretty much given up on those and just watch the atmospheric concentration numbers, the policy makers should be doing the same.

Totally agree. Much if not most of the UNFCCC activities are fraudulent imho. It's a pea and shells game. The Paris Agreement isn't worth the paper it's written on. Bring in the USA's recalcitrance (+20% of global ghg emissions) and it's even worse. 

I gave up trying to make sense of the emissions data years ago, especially the "projections" into the future. (edit) It's mostly manipulative bs, unreliable, not auditable/testable, and rarely if ever comparable one data suite to another.

I also suggested at one time long ago that daily MLO CO2 ppm data incl growth numbers should be reported on the nightly news weather reports across the world - and the Global monthly data for all ghg reported in great detail each month.

That suggestion was greeted on another supposedly enlightened pro-climate change science site with ridicule and dismissed. The conservative nature of many if not most 'pro climate action' proponents to me is astounding! 

I wish there was already many more youthful 'student scientists' (?) like yourself replacing all the well known climate scientists who speak in the public domain and high profile media. Your communication skills for telling the truth are an order of magnitude higher than the old farts (M Mann et al) who think they are good at what they do (they are not) because they already know everything. Sadly.
« Last Edit: Today at 04:47:13 AM by Lurk »
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019