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What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 32

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 20082 times)

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #150 on: June 01, 2019, 04:04:14 PM »
I calculated 414.70 ppm for May 2019.  That is a year-over-year change of 3.46 ppm.  The running 12-month rate is back above 2.50 ppm and approaching the linear regression.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #151 on: June 01, 2019, 06:46:59 PM »
Wolfpack's graph suggests the CO2 rate of change changes sinuously (albeit with much noise) on a ~3-4 year cycle since 2008, at least.  I didn't find anything with a quick internet search.  Am I missing something?
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oren

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #152 on: June 01, 2019, 07:13:05 PM »
ENSO?

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #153 on: June 01, 2019, 09:46:32 PM »
I’ve wondered the same thing.  We all know ENSO has a big impact on CO2 growth variability but this cycle seems to be something else in addition to ENSO.  Look at the peak prior to 2015-2016 El Niño.   The 12-month growth rate peaked in September of 2013.  Why?  2013 ENSO was cool neutral for 10 months leading up to that peak in September.   

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #154 on: June 02, 2019, 09:23:35 PM »
Finally, there are (still some) weeks with a growth rate of CO2 below 3 ppm.
The last week showed an increase of 'only' 2.7 ppm:
Week beginning on May 26, 2019:     414.27 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          411.58 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       390.15 ppm
Last updated: June 2, 2019
June 1, 2019 was the first date since May 4, 2019 with a daily average value below 414 ppm. Its contribution set the increase below 3 ppm.
Next week should also stay below 3 ppm increase, if the daily values stay below 414 ppm.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #155 on: June 04, 2019, 06:22:21 PM »
May average 414.8, +3.5ppm from May 2018.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/04/latest-data-shows-steep-rises-in-co2-for-seventh-year
Latest data shows steep rises in CO2 for seventh year
Readings from Hawaii observatory bring threshold of 450ppm closer sooner than had been anticipated

Quote
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by the second highest annual rise in the past six decades, according to new data.

Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas were 414.8 parts per million in May, which was 3.5ppm higher than the same time last year, according to readings from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, where carbon dioxide has been monitored continuously since 1958.
This is the seventh consecutive year in which steep increases in ppm have been recorded, well above the previous average, and the fifth year since the 400ppm threshold was breached in 2014. In 2016, the highest annual jump in the series so far was recorded, from 404.1 in 2015 to 407.66 in 2016.

As recently as the 1990s, the average annual growth rate was about 1.5ppm, but in the past decade that has accelerated to 2.2ppm, and is now even higher. This brings the threshold of 450ppm closer sooner than had been anticipated. Concentrations of the gas have increased every year, reflecting our burning of fossil fuels.

Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institute, and the son of Charles, said: “The CO2 growth rate is still very high – the increase from last May was well above the average for the past decade.” He pointed to the mild El Niño conditions experienced this year as a possible factor.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #156 on: June 04, 2019, 06:49:05 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing and the rate of increase is increasing. This will continue for several decades, I fear.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html

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« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 02:01:46 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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vox_mundi

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #158 on: June 07, 2019, 10:28:24 PM »

Cape Grim/Antarctic carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-e) calculated from the long-lived greenhouse gas radiative forcing data shown in the figure below with CO₂ data shown for reference, annual data through to 2018. Inset panel shows the monthly mean CO₂-e data for Cape Grim from 2015 through to March 2019, showing CO₂-e surpassing 500ppm in July 2018. Credit: CSIRO 


Southern Hemispheric radiative forcing relative to 1750 due to the long-lived greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and synthetic greenhouse gases), expressed as watts per square metre, from measurements in situ at Cape Grim, from the Cape Grim Air Archive, and Antarctic firn air. Credit: CSIRO

https://m.phys.org/news/2019-06-greenhouse-gas-atmosphere-realised.html
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wili

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #159 on: June 08, 2019, 05:25:59 AM »
Thanks, as always, vox.

Note that a lot of that extra CO2e amount (beyond CO2) is from methane, and it turns out a lot more of that methane is from industry than we thought, like two orders of magnitude worth:

https://phys.org/news/2019-06-industrial-methane-emissions-higher.html
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #160 on: June 10, 2019, 10:30:32 PM »
And, back again, to CO2 growth rates above 3 ppm:
Week beginning on June 2, 2019:     414.32 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        410.86 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.06 ppm
Last updated: June 10, 2019
End of June the short CO2 decrease season until beginning of September will start.
If this period is shifted to later times, then the increase will stay well above average and vice versa. Time will tell. But when I sum up all the increases so far this year, we will end up with an annual growth rate above 3 ppm.
Isn't it time to slow down CO2 growth in order to have at least a chance to become a world below 2°C increase (if that is ever possible at all)?

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #161 on: June 10, 2019, 10:35:23 PM »
The February 2019 numbers of methane were recently published:
February 2019:     1865.4 ppb
February 2018:     1856.2 ppb
Last updated: June 05, 2019
The growth rate is among the top three since 2000. As CH4 is a much more potent GHG than CO2, this increase is worrying.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #162 on: June 16, 2019, 10:56:30 PM »
Two days without any measurement (does anyone know why?) deliver a "short week" with ups and downs and an average below 3 ppm increase compared to last year:
Week beginning on June 9, 2019:     413.98 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             411.22 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.17 ppm
Last updated: June 16, 2019