Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 37915 times)

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #150 on: June 01, 2019, 04:04:14 PM »
I calculated 414.70 ppm for May 2019.  That is a year-over-year change of 3.46 ppm.  The running 12-month rate is back above 2.50 ppm and approaching the linear regression.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2978
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 310
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #151 on: June 01, 2019, 06:46:59 PM »
Wolfpack's graph suggests the CO2 rate of change changes sinuously (albeit with much noise) on a ~3-4 year cycle since 2008, at least.  I didn't find anything with a quick internet search.  Am I missing something?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4408
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 844
  • Likes Given: 1266
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #152 on: June 01, 2019, 07:13:05 PM »
ENSO?

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #153 on: June 01, 2019, 09:46:32 PM »
I’ve wondered the same thing.  We all know ENSO has a big impact on CO2 growth variability but this cycle seems to be something else in addition to ENSO.  Look at the peak prior to 2015-2016 El Niño.   The 12-month growth rate peaked in September of 2013.  Why?  2013 ENSO was cool neutral for 10 months leading up to that peak in September.   

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #154 on: June 02, 2019, 09:23:35 PM »
Finally, there are (still some) weeks with a growth rate of CO2 below 3 ppm.
The last week showed an increase of 'only' 2.7 ppm:
Week beginning on May 26, 2019:     414.27 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          411.58 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       390.15 ppm
Last updated: June 2, 2019
June 1, 2019 was the first date since May 4, 2019 with a daily average value below 414 ppm. Its contribution set the increase below 3 ppm.
Next week should also stay below 3 ppm increase, if the daily values stay below 414 ppm.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6301
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1343
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #155 on: June 04, 2019, 06:22:21 PM »
May average 414.8, +3.5ppm from May 2018.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/04/latest-data-shows-steep-rises-in-co2-for-seventh-year
Latest data shows steep rises in CO2 for seventh year
Readings from Hawaii observatory bring threshold of 450ppm closer sooner than had been anticipated

Quote
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by the second highest annual rise in the past six decades, according to new data.

Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas were 414.8 parts per million in May, which was 3.5ppm higher than the same time last year, according to readings from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, where carbon dioxide has been monitored continuously since 1958.
This is the seventh consecutive year in which steep increases in ppm have been recorded, well above the previous average, and the fifth year since the 400ppm threshold was breached in 2014. In 2016, the highest annual jump in the series so far was recorded, from 404.1 in 2015 to 407.66 in 2016.

As recently as the 1990s, the average annual growth rate was about 1.5ppm, but in the past decade that has accelerated to 2.2ppm, and is now even higher. This brings the threshold of 450ppm closer sooner than had been anticipated. Concentrations of the gas have increased every year, reflecting our burning of fossil fuels.

Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institute, and the son of Charles, said: “The CO2 growth rate is still very high – the increase from last May was well above the average for the past decade.” He pointed to the mild El Niño conditions experienced this year as a possible factor.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3935
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #156 on: June 04, 2019, 06:49:05 PM »
Atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing and the rate of increase is increasing. This will continue for several decades, I fear.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1441
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 301
  • Likes Given: 49
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 02:01:46 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1500
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 543
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #158 on: June 07, 2019, 10:28:24 PM »

Cape Grim/Antarctic carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-e) calculated from the long-lived greenhouse gas radiative forcing data shown in the figure below with CO₂ data shown for reference, annual data through to 2018. Inset panel shows the monthly mean CO₂-e data for Cape Grim from 2015 through to March 2019, showing CO₂-e surpassing 500ppm in July 2018. Credit: CSIRO 


Southern Hemispheric radiative forcing relative to 1750 due to the long-lived greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and synthetic greenhouse gases), expressed as watts per square metre, from measurements in situ at Cape Grim, from the Cape Grim Air Archive, and Antarctic firn air. Credit: CSIRO

https://m.phys.org/news/2019-06-greenhouse-gas-atmosphere-realised.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #159 on: June 08, 2019, 05:25:59 AM »
Thanks, as always, vox.

Note that a lot of that extra CO2e amount (beyond CO2) is from methane, and it turns out a lot more of that methane is from industry than we thought, like two orders of magnitude worth:

https://phys.org/news/2019-06-industrial-methane-emissions-higher.html
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #160 on: June 10, 2019, 10:30:32 PM »
And, back again, to CO2 growth rates above 3 ppm:
Week beginning on June 2, 2019:     414.32 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        410.86 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.06 ppm
Last updated: June 10, 2019
End of June the short CO2 decrease season until beginning of September will start.
If this period is shifted to later times, then the increase will stay well above average and vice versa. Time will tell. But when I sum up all the increases so far this year, we will end up with an annual growth rate above 3 ppm.
Isn't it time to slow down CO2 growth in order to have at least a chance to become a world below 2°C increase (if that is ever possible at all)?

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #161 on: June 10, 2019, 10:35:23 PM »
The February 2019 numbers of methane were recently published:
February 2019:     1865.4 ppb
February 2018:     1856.2 ppb
Last updated: June 05, 2019
The growth rate is among the top three since 2000. As CH4 is a much more potent GHG than CO2, this increase is worrying.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #162 on: June 16, 2019, 10:56:30 PM »
Two days without any measurement (does anyone know why?) deliver a "short week" with ups and downs and an average below 3 ppm increase compared to last year:
Week beginning on June 9, 2019:     413.98 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             411.22 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.17 ppm
Last updated: June 16, 2019

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #163 on: June 23, 2019, 09:03:28 PM »
Ups and downs continue, some "unavailable" days average up to another week with a yearly increase well above 3 ppm:
Week beginning on June 16, 2019:     414.03 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             410.38 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     389.20 ppm
Last updated: June 23, 2019
The following week last year was a tiny little bit higher than this week. The increase in CO2 may fall again below 3 ppm.
After that the annual cycle will start again with a big drop to around 408 ppm in September. As written earlier, a tiny change in timing (two, three days of delay or advance are enough) of this decrease can shift the yearly increase by ± 0,5 ppm.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 09:11:05 PM by Stephan »

bluice

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 130
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 154
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #164 on: June 27, 2019, 08:33:26 PM »
I thought this fits well on the most important thread on the forum.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/climate-change-mauna-loa-carbon-dioxide-measurement-834627/

Quote
When you look at this curve, two things are obvious. First, it is a smooth upward curve, with no breaks or dips or plateaus. Despite the decline in the cost of solar power, despite all the climate marches in the streets, despite the wildfires and melting glaciers and increasing summer heat, it is very obvious that, by the only metric that really matters, we have done less than zero to reduce the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
[\quote]
In PIOMAS we trust

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #165 on: June 30, 2019, 09:35:44 PM »
The decline of CO2 levels has started on time. Therefore the yearly increase last week was below 3 ppm:
Week beginning on June 23, 2019:     413.35 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       410.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     388.54 ppm
Last updated: June 30, 2019
Isn't it sad that we can be happy about an increase of "only" 2.6 ppm? Years ago this would have been a crazy high number!

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 213
  • Likes Given: 293
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #166 on: July 01, 2019, 02:18:29 PM »
Aiming for 400 ppm max seemed like such a sensible idea...yeah those days are long gone.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3935
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #167 on: July 01, 2019, 04:54:01 PM »
Aiming for 400 ppm max seemed like such a sensible idea...yeah those days are long gone.

We will be approaching 450 ppm by mid century.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6301
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1343
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #168 on: July 01, 2019, 04:59:27 PM »
Aiming for 400 ppm max seemed like such a sensible idea...yeah those days are long gone.

We will be approaching 450 ppm by mid century.
Optimist - 2040 or before given BAU
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 741
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 4848
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #169 on: July 01, 2019, 06:06:57 PM »
current 3 ppm/y * 12y =36 ppm + 415 ppm = 451 ppm. So in 12 years: The year 2031. Or maybe you think the slope of the Keeling curve will go down?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

crandles

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2495
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 85
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #170 on: July 01, 2019, 07:24:45 PM »
current 3 ppm/y * 12y =36 ppm + 415 ppm = 451 ppm. So in 12 years: The year 2031. Or maybe you think the slope of the Keeling curve will go down?

3ppm/y is almost certainly inflated a little by El Nino.

Week beginning on June 23, 2019:     413.35 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     410.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     388.54 ppm

Averaging more like 2.5 ppm/y over last 10 years. So around 15 years i,e ~2034 for peak to reach 2050 with trough reaching 450 around 2037, if the rate of the last 10 years continues.

Renewables continue getting cheaper so there may be some reduction in the rate of rise so it might be a little later. Even if there are large rises in demand, the increase will mainly be done with renewables as will replacing closing power plants. This cheaper renewables has only been the situation for at most a few years so far and the gap in price is likely to grow.

Let's show some optimism  ;)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3935
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #171 on: July 01, 2019, 09:12:11 PM »
Aiming for 400 ppm max seemed like such a sensible idea...yeah those days are long gone.

We will be approaching 450 ppm by mid century.
Optimist - 2040 or before given BAU

Brain cramp...don't know how I got to that.

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #172 on: July 02, 2019, 07:59:09 PM »
Yea current CO2 growth rates are about 2.6 ppm per year.  That's why I use a 12-month smooth to pick out inter-seasonal variability like ENSO.  June 2019's growth rate came in just over 3.00 ppm.  That pulls the 12-month smooth up to the long term linear trend of ~2.6 ppm per year.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3935
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 403
  • Likes Given: 46
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #173 on: July 02, 2019, 09:38:59 PM »
Yea current CO2 growth rates are about 2.6 ppm per year.  That's why I use a 12-month smooth to pick out inter-seasonal variability like ENSO.  June 2019's growth rate came in just over 3.00 ppm.  That pulls the 12-month smooth up to the long term linear trend of ~2.6 ppm per year.

So 450 ppm by 2034.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #174 on: July 02, 2019, 11:36:15 PM »
Probably earlier. The carbon sinks may be failing. That process will not proceed linear.

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #175 on: July 02, 2019, 11:54:04 PM »
Yea current CO2 growth rates are about 2.6 ppm per year.  That's why I use a 12-month smooth to pick out inter-seasonal variability like ENSO.  June 2019's growth rate came in just over 3.00 ppm.  That pulls the 12-month smooth up to the long term linear trend of ~2.6 ppm per year.

So 450 ppm by 2034.

The growth rate is increasing therefore accelerating.  It will be 3 ppm/year in the next 5-10 years.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4408
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 844
  • Likes Given: 1266
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #176 on: July 03, 2019, 12:01:26 AM »
It should be 2031-2033 due to acceleration, depending on ENSO cycle and emission variability.
And then onward to 500ppm or collapse, whichever comes first. My bet is on collapse.

Pragma

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #177 on: July 03, 2019, 12:10:45 AM »
It should be 2031-2033 due to acceleration, depending on ENSO cycle and emission variability.
And then onward to 500ppm or collapse, whichever comes first. My bet is on collapse.

I think you're about right for a date, but I disagree with 500 ppm or collapse. Regardless of the order, it will be both.

If civilization collapses, the aerosol masking effect will collapse, spiking the temperature and releasing much CO2e from forests and from permafrost that has become permamelt, and that is without any subsea methane release.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #178 on: July 03, 2019, 12:29:15 AM »
When civilization (or the economy) collapses, fossil fuel burning and CO2 emissions will decrease dramatically. But unfortunately that's not likely to be soon.

Meanwhile, stuff like this will add to the upward curve: https://www.ecowatch.com/amazon-rainforest-deforestation-2621547166.html .

Pragma

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #179 on: July 03, 2019, 12:36:33 AM »
When civilization (or the economy) collapses, fossil fuel burning and CO2 emissions will decrease dramatically. But unfortunately that's not likely to be soon.

Meanwhile, stuff like this will add to the upward curve: https://www.ecowatch.com/amazon-rainforest-deforestation-2621547166.html .

True, but what I was saying to Oren is that all the aerosols in the atmosphere will fall out quite quickly as the economy collapses, resulting in much higher insolation. A dramatic drop in fossil fuel burning will be of little benefit, short term or long term (in human reference).

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #180 on: July 03, 2019, 12:49:13 AM »
True, but what I was saying to Oren is that all the aerosols in the atmosphere will fall out quite quickly as the economy collapses, resulting in much higher insolation. A dramatic drop in fossil fuel burning will be of little benefit, short term or long term (in human reference).

Wasn't meaning to suggest disagreement -- I totally agree with this. Aerosol masking effect is troubling. A lot is troubling these days.

Pragma

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #181 on: July 03, 2019, 12:53:49 AM »
Wasn't meaning to suggest disagreement -- I totally agree with this. Aerosol masking effect is troubling. A lot is troubling these days.

LOL! I think you might have just taken top prize for understatement, and I couldn't agree more.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #182 on: July 03, 2019, 01:08:36 AM »
Edit: Troubling even in the desensitized Age Of Trump. hahaha

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1444
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #183 on: July 04, 2019, 04:34:19 AM »
Apocalypse For Real has a posting about rate of CO2 increases on his blog. Well worth a look.

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com


"The change from 210 to 280 ppm (emerging from the last ice age to beginning of the Industrial Revolution) took 15,900 years.
The change from 280 ppm to 350 ppm (reached in 1987, when the international community and energy industry unequivocally knew that emissions were going to cause a problem for human society) took only 202 years.
The last 60 ppm increase (350 to 410 ppm) has only taken 32 years. This has never happened in 800,000 years. In fact, in the ice core data there is no record of a 10 ppm increase in 39 years - until human emissions impacts in the 1900's.
Global CO2 concentrations have never increased by 10 ppm in 47 months. There is no comparison in 800,000 years of ice core data. Nothing in paleo-climate proxies. Only in models with polynomial, or exponential, curves.

We are in uncharted "terror incognita" (pun intended)."
« Last Edit: July 04, 2019, 04:59:12 AM by Bruce Steele »

Human Habitat Index

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 155
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 79
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #184 on: July 04, 2019, 05:12:05 AM »
Apocalypse For Real has a posting about rate of CO2 increases on his blog. Well worth a look.

http://www.megiddo666.apocalypse4real-globalmethanetracking.com


"The change from 210 to 280 ppm (emerging from the last ice age to beginning of the Industrial Revolution) took 15,900 years.
The change from 280 ppm to 350 ppm (reached in 1987, when the international community and energy industry unequivocally knew that emissions were going to cause a problem for human society) took only 202 years.
The last 60 ppm increase (350 to 410 ppm) has only taken 32 years. This has never happened in 800,000 years. In fact, in the ice core data there is no record of a 10 ppm increase in 39 years - until human emissions impacts in the 1900's.
Global CO2 concentrations have never increased by 10 ppm in 47 months. There is no comparison in 800,000 years of ice core data. Nothing in paleo-climate proxies. Only in models with polynomial, or exponential, curves.

We are in uncharted "terror incognita" (pun intended)."

Terror Incognita - Die, die, die

There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Pragma

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #185 on: July 04, 2019, 06:58:38 AM »
On an earth system time scale, we are ringing a bell with a sledge hammer, and we are only hearing the very first vibrations. Most people do not realize that even the fact that there is a measurable temperature increase over the globe in a single year signals monumental changes. Petajoules and Exajoules are foreign concepts. I understand the numbers, but I doubt I grasp the significance. 

I have looked at everything from concentration-to-temperature-increase times, to feedbacks, to the sheer magnitude of what CCS or BECCS would involve, even if it were viable. And then there is CO2 persistence.

Granted, I am a cynical SOB, but I also have a fairly good handle on math, which means I don't shy away from reality.

Isn't it about time that we stop using seemingly obligatory phrases like:

"Imagine if we do not accelerate efforts to quickly drop emissions. "?

Viggy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #186 on: July 04, 2019, 07:33:41 AM »
On an earth system time scale, we are ringing a bell with a sledge hammer, and we are only hearing the very first vibrations.

That is a very poetic and jarring analogy!

And yea, dropping emissions is not going to happen unless something forces it to do so. By that time, its already far too late.

Also, given that this melting season has made a pre-2030 BOE seem more likely, I would be more inclined to expect 450 ppm sometime in the upcoming decade. Ill try and put up a more detailed justification at a later date.

Tony Mcleod

  • New ice
  • Posts: 70
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #187 on: July 04, 2019, 08:21:26 AM »
Came across this disturbing factoid just now at https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-levels-just-hit-another-record-heres-why-it-matters/

Even if today’s CO2 concentrations are similar to the levels seen millions of years ago, the rate at which they’re currently climbing probably “outstrips anything we’ve seen in the geological record for at least 65 million years,”

Gavin Foster of the University of Southampton http://www.thefosterlab.org/

wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 45
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #188 on: July 04, 2019, 08:34:01 AM »
Does the speed at which you increase the forcing change it's force? This is of course way beyond me to answer. I am inclined to think that yes, the consequence is that slow feedbacks will not be so slow, and that the possibility of getting into a runaway greenhouse warming situation is therefore greater... but what do I know?

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 213
  • Likes Given: 293
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #189 on: July 04, 2019, 10:05:13 AM »
It think it must be. If you look at the quote in #183 we are increasing it fast but we are also doing that by adding record amounts of buried historical carbon. If we had started transiting to a sustainable climate in the nineties we might not have seen the huge siberian/alaskan fires we are used to by now or much later in this century. Off course this is just one simple example among many.

https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #190 on: July 04, 2019, 09:09:42 PM »
Looking at the actual data from Mauna Loa (ca. 413.5 this week up to today) we will easily be back at an increase rate of about 4 ppm compared to last year. The annual decrease seems to have stopped since June 30.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 08:33:57 PM by Stephan »

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #191 on: July 07, 2019, 08:23:42 PM »
The second half of this year begins with an almost 4 ppm increase:
Week beginning on June 30, 2019:     413.38 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       409.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     388.63 ppm
Last updated: July 7, 2019
Another value of above 3 ppm increase in CO2 is to be expected next week.

bosbas

  • New ice
  • Posts: 44
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #192 on: July 07, 2019, 08:58:23 PM »
It isn't that long ago that I thought a high 2 ppm increase was something noteworthy; now we're seeing 3.81 even without a strong el-nino or other natural cause that I am aware of; scary.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #193 on: July 07, 2019, 09:52:12 PM »
I totally agree with your thoughts and fears. Maybe a 7 ppm yearly increase will make it into the news? Or is a 17 ppm increase needed?
- Joking aside; I have no clue how we can manage to get even close to an increase below 2 ppm; and in reality we should begin to head towards a zero growth to avoid the worst...

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #194 on: July 10, 2019, 03:44:50 PM »
Updated graphic with official June 2019 numbers: 413.92 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.13 ppm.
 The running 12-month mean is now back up to 2.6 ppm/year. 

A couple important things.  This is a chart of rates so a positive linear regression slope = acceleration.  I picked 2006 for the start of my data for 2 important reasons.  2006-2007 was a weak El Niño just like this year.  2006-2007 was also the peak of global economic growth before the 2008-2009 great recession.  That way you can't complain about endpoints.


dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #195 on: July 10, 2019, 03:57:21 PM »
Nice chart. What's the slope of the line? Eyeballing suggests growth rate (of the annual increase) of about 0.7 ppm per decade. I.e. the regression would predict an annual growth rate of about 3.3 ppm in a decade (2.6 + 0.7).

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #196 on: July 10, 2019, 08:51:34 PM »
Probably wolfpack can insert the formula for the regression line into the graph. With this it will be easy to estimate (not forecast!!) annual growth rates for CO2 in the coming decade(s).
I still hope that mankind (those living in the rich countries) will be able to turn that acceleration into a deceleration by changing their lifestyles.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #197 on: July 10, 2019, 10:02:34 PM »
The February 2019 numbers of methane were recently published:
February 2019:     1865.4 ppb
February 2018:     1856.2 ppb
Last updated: June 05, 2019
The March 2019 numbers of methane were recently published:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/
March 2019:     1866.4 ppb
March 2018:     1857.5 ppb
(increase by almost 9 ppb)
Last updated: July 05, 2019
Eyeballing from the graph the increase was a little lower than March 2018, but bigger than March 2017.
______________
Neven: Shouldn't we make up a thread in CH4 trends, separate from the CO2 discussion? If you think so, please move this posting (and the referred posting from June 10) into the new thread.

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 681
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 213
  • Likes Given: 293
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #198 on: July 11, 2019, 09:02:37 PM »
Just make a new thread for it. You can copy over the posts and then update it monthly. I appreciate these data threads.

Also this lessens the workload on our great leader. Ask not etc... 

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 712
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #199 on: July 11, 2019, 10:06:23 PM »
Done.