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What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 27231 times)

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #200 on: July 13, 2019, 07:30:19 PM »
Nice chart. What's the slope of the line? Eyeballing suggests growth rate (of the annual increase) of about 0.7 ppm per decade. I.e. the regression would predict an annual growth rate of about 3.3 ppm in a decade (2.6 + 0.7).

Sorry for the delay.  Slope is roughly 0.07 ppm per year or as you estimated 0.70 ppm per decade.  Regardless of emissions I think the slope may drop a hair the next couple of years because the 2015-2016 spike was so large.  I'll include the slope on the chart next month.

Rod

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #201 on: July 13, 2019, 08:11:05 PM »
Nice chart. What's the slope of the line? Eyeballing suggests growth rate (of the annual increase) of about 0.7 ppm per decade. I.e. the regression would predict an annual growth rate of about 3.3 ppm in a decade (2.6 + 0.7).

Sorry for the delay.  Slope is roughly 0.07 ppm per year or as you estimated 0.70 ppm per decade.  Regardless of emissions I think the slope may drop a hair the next couple of years because the 2015-2016 spike was so large.  I'll include the slope on the chart next month.

Below is an interesting chart that has been circulating on Twitter for a few weeks.  I think it does a nice job of showing the “rate of increase of the rate of increase.”   

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #202 on: July 14, 2019, 03:24:36 PM »
Even though a massive drop occurred from July 7 to July 8, the weekly average is almost at 3 ppm increase vs. 2018:
Week beginning on July 7, 2019:     411.96 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        409.07 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     388.48 ppm
Last updated: July 14, 2019
The drop was "corrected" today so next week the increase will be well above 3 ppm/year again (the following week last year saw an average of about 408.6 ppm)

Bernard

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #203 on: July 15, 2019, 12:14:49 PM »
@Stephan
Where do you get those July figures?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ has been stalled since July 1st.

S.Pansa

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #204 on: July 15, 2019, 12:22:29 PM »
@Stephan
Where do you get those July figures?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ has been stalled since July 1st.
My guess would be from here (Global Monitoring Divison from NOAAs ESRL)
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 12:27:58 PM by S.Pansa »

Yuha

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #205 on: July 15, 2019, 03:54:10 PM »
@Stephan
Where do you get those July figures?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ has been stalled since July 1st.
My guess would be from here (Global Monitoring Divison from NOAAs ESRL)

And more specifically here:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

These are separate measurements from Scripps:

Quote
They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Keeling, 1976]. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then [Thoning, 1989].

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #206 on: July 15, 2019, 06:58:04 PM »
@Stephan
Where do you get those July figures?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ has been stalled since July 1st.
This is the link I use to get to actual CO2 data:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html

Bernard

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #207 on: July 17, 2019, 12:50:42 AM »
Thanks all! Bookmarks updated :)

Ken Feldman

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #208 on: July 17, 2019, 01:55:23 AM »
There's a tab on the Mauna Loa page that lets you see the global charts as well.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html

Quote
April 2019:      411.50 ppm 
April 2018:      408.85 ppm 
Last updated: July 8, 2019 

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #209 on: July 19, 2019, 07:50:28 PM »
Any idea what is going on (or what is not going on) at the Global Monitoring Division at Mauna Loa? Only two out of the seven last days showed measurement results!

Pragma

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #210 on: July 19, 2019, 08:04:10 PM »
Any idea what is going on (or what is not going on) at the Global Monitoring Division at Mauna Loa? Only two out of the seven last days showed measurement results!

The website https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

Has been flaky, on and off for some time. There was an outage for about a week due to a bad fan, some months ago, but since then it appears to be a bookkeeping/updating problem.

The site I referenced shows a contiguous dataset, but does not include the daily averages for some reason.

Things tend to get filled in after a while.

Budget cuts?

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #211 on: July 20, 2019, 07:31:08 AM »
as I understand it readings can be highly variable due to local conditions. So they don't report data for times when the numbers are especially volatile. They have criteria set but I don't remember what they are precisely.

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #212 on: July 20, 2019, 07:04:55 PM »
Standard QA/QC. Unreliable samples are tossed out.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #213 on: July 21, 2019, 05:29:10 PM »
Even though a massive drop occurred from July 7 to July 8, the weekly average is almost at 3 ppm increase vs. 2018:
Week beginning on July 7, 2019:     411.96 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        409.07 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     388.48 ppm
Last updated: July 14, 2019
The drop was "corrected" today so next week the increase will be well above 3 ppm/year again (the following week last year saw an average of about 408.6 ppm)
There it is, as forecasted. An increase of more than 3.5 ppm
Week beginning on July 14, 2019:     412.14 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       408.58 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     388.20 ppm
Last updated: July 21, 2019
Please use these values with care, as to my knowledge there were only three days with data.

A value well below 411.5 ppm is needed next week to have an increase below 3 ppm.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #214 on: July 21, 2019, 06:12:59 PM »
Standard QA/QC. Unreliable samples are tossed out.
On the contrary, these are of course recorded, and the sources of interference are being tracked, if possible. These are sensitive measurements. If I understood this correctly, they check these against a sort of normal day cycle and deviations of over some level get checked against known possible sources of ghgs. On some measurement stations even a ship, motors on idle with winds towards, near enough the station may mess up the measurement of the background which is the important bit in global warming. The day cycle of course changes with activity of nearby vegetation, power stations etc. Volcanic activity on Mauna Loa is pretty well ruled out of the background measurements at least.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #215 on: July 21, 2019, 06:59:00 PM »
How we measure background CO2 levels on Mauna Loa.

I may have been too dramatic with the "tossed out" but they are flagged as possibly unreliable and not a "background" level. Ships are too far away to have an effect. Biggest effects are plants that remove CO2 in upsloping air and the volcano in down downsloping air..

kassy

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #216 on: July 22, 2019, 01:59:23 PM »
That´s an interesting read. I always took this as a simple reliable background measurement so never looked into it but it is quite a bit more complicated then i thought.

The hourly data with error flags would be nice to have so we could muse about the reason we lost so much days in a certain week.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #217 on: July 29, 2019, 03:26:41 PM »

A value well below 411.5 ppm is needed next week to have an increase below 3 ppm.

Please find here one week of a yearly increase rate at "only" 2.5 ppm:
Week beginning on July 21, 2019:     410.87 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             408.36 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     387.66 ppm
Last updated: July 29, 2019
Again a week to "handle with care" - only four reliable values available. Something goes on at Mauna Loa Institute. Such a large number of days without measurements or with "unavailable" averages. Hope their support from Trumpistan's government was not cut...

Next week last year showed a remarkable drop to av. 407.5 ppm - an increase of > 3 ppm is likely!

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #218 on: July 29, 2019, 05:24:39 PM »
Something goes on at Mauna Loa Institute. Such a large number of days without measurements or with "unavailable" averages. Hope their support from Trumpistan's government was not cut...

The reason for data gaps has been explained stop stirring the pot for no reason.

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #219 on: July 31, 2019, 02:51:42 PM »
An historically strong kelvin wave passed right over Hawaii(155°W) earlier this month.  Like the MJO these convectively active & inactive phases have major impacts on local tropical convection & changes in mixing/circulations.  There is no grand conspiracy, abnormal/volatile measurements of CO2 are processed through QC. The entire point of Mauna Loa is to measure a well mixed CO2 concentration that is representative of global levels.  Local contamination would make these useless. 

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #220 on: August 04, 2019, 10:08:02 PM »

A value well below 411.5 ppm is needed next week to have an increase below 3 ppm.

The annual cycle with decreases in CO2 is on its way.
With the help of a low value last Monday this week saw a yearly increase of 2.65 ppm.
Week beginning on July 28, 2019:     410.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       407.55 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     387.28 ppm
Last updated: August 4, 2019
All days showed values, no gaps anymore in the data set.

Forecast for next week: Last year had an average of about 407.3. If the daily values continue to drop, a yearly increase of below 3 ppm can be achieved again.

blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #221 on: August 05, 2019, 06:17:20 PM »
Some achievement though.  :(
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.”

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #222 on: August 07, 2019, 09:13:45 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade². 

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #223 on: August 08, 2019, 02:55:09 AM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade².

Without a real El Nino to speak about...

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #224 on: August 08, 2019, 03:05:54 PM »
Through July, 2019's growth rate is 3.10 ppm.  Only one year has finished above 3.00 ppm: 2016 at 3.01 ppm.   1998 & 2015 finished just below a 3 ppm growth rate.

Renerpho

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #225 on: August 08, 2019, 05:24:27 PM »
Forecast for next week: Last year had an average of about 407.3. If the daily values continue to drop, a yearly increase of below 3 ppm can be achieved again.
Some achievement though.  :(

The last couple of days would give an average of 410.33, putting us almost exactly at 3 ppm above 2018. Of course the week isn't over yet...
August 4: 410.16
August 5: 410.86
August 6: 410.05
August 7: 410.25
What I find concerning is this: I know I will feel relieved when I see that we end up with 2.9 ppm rise this week. As blumenkraft said, it is quite an achievement to make <3 ppm something to look forward to.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #226 on: August 11, 2019, 05:14:02 PM »

Forecast for next week: Last year had an average of about 407.3. If the daily values continue to drop, a yearly increase of below 3 ppm can be achieved again.
Just missed that forecast by 0.02 ppm:
Week beginning on August 4, 2019:     410.34 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             407.33 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     387.07 ppm
Last updated: August 11, 2019
The decrease has stopped since July 27, therefore the yearly increase is a tiny little bit above 3 ppm.

Next week should be the same average value and a very comparable yearly increase of about 3 ppm.

Renerpho

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #227 on: August 11, 2019, 08:54:51 PM »
CO2 concentration at NOAA and Scripps: 2019 vs. 2018

NOAA and Scripps each had a low value at the beginning of the week 28 July - 3 August 2019, and NOAA had a high value on 28 July 2018. Scripps had no data this week in 2018, and NOAA was a bit noisy. So, last week's increase was "only" 2.65 ppm.

The week 4 August - 10 August 2019 had more consistent values from both. In 2018, NOAA had a few low values. Using the daily averages, the increase came in at 3.15 ppm (NOAA) and 3.13 ppm (Scripps).

During the week 11 August - 17 August 2018, the values at NOAA and Scripps remained approximately constant at slightly above 407 ppm. Measurements in 2019 have to be below 410 ppm next week to avoid an increase of 3 ppm.

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

grixm

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #228 on: August 11, 2019, 09:33:07 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade².

It looks like a wave with a very regular period, but it's not seasonal as the period is longer than a year.. What's up with that?

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #229 on: August 12, 2019, 01:15:34 AM »
That is how noise around an average trend looks like....

TerryM

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #230 on: August 12, 2019, 02:31:43 PM »
Haven't done any of the math, but is it possible that if we were to calculate the YoY increase as a % rather than as an absolute number we might find the increases more predictable?


ie an increase of 2, when the base is 200 gives an increase of 1%  - an increase of 4 when the base has moved to 400 also gives an increase of 1%


If this proves ~accurate over time, it might make prediction more accurate?
Terry

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #231 on: August 12, 2019, 10:24:06 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade².

It looks like a wave with a very regular period, but it's not seasonal as the period is longer than a year.. What's up with that?
At least part of the "bigger waves" in the 365d-running mean are caused by El Niño / La Niña phenomena. The big El Niño event from 2015/16 is clearly visible. This high increase is followed by a period of smaller increase in 2017/18, which was a weak La Niña period.

Renerpho

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #232 on: August 15, 2019, 08:32:42 AM »
The first half of the week 11 August - 17 August 2019 came in at 410.50 (NOAA) and 410.65 (Scripps), higher than last week's values. If the week ended here, this would be an increase of 3.5 ppm over 2018's readings.

« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 10:38:18 AM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #233 on: August 15, 2019, 02:41:55 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade².

It looks like a wave with a very regular period, but it's not seasonal as the period is longer than a year.. What's up with that?

Yea I've thought about this a lot too.  Obviously ENSO plays a big role but ENSO doesn't following regular period like this chart shows/suggests.  What's behind the trough to peak growth from  2012-2013? ENSO warmed slightly out of the 2011 La Niña but it was still cool-neutral.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #234 on: August 15, 2019, 03:26:14 PM »
The first half of the week 11 August - 17 August 2019 came in at 410.50 (NOAA) and 410.65 (Scripps), higher than last week's values. If the week ended here, this would be an increase of 3.5 ppm over 2018's readings.



Hi Renerpho. Welcome to the party

Renerpho

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #235 on: August 15, 2019, 04:59:33 PM »
Hi Renerpho. Welcome to the party

Thanks, Shared Humanity!
I feel like I've missed the first two thirds of the film (the first few billion years), but I hope it gets exciting from here and not too confusing to watch. The plot is unfolding a bit too fast for my liking, but what can you do.

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.