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What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 35440 times)

RealityCheck

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #250 on: August 25, 2019, 12:32:31 AM »
Right, so if we estimate 0.4GT CO2 from this season of Amazon fires (up from 0.23 now, i.e. adding a bit from now until end-of-season - and I admit based on absolutely no scientific basis whatsoever, but just to make the numbers easy); then the Amazon will contribute 1 percent of annual CO2 emissions this year.
Now, if we assume there is no additional 'magic' capacity to absorb CO2 created; and that the loss of forest diminishes absorption capacity, then the best case is that all that extra CO2 persists in the atmosphere. So if 'about half' of annual CO2 is now absorbed, then c. 20 GT per annum persists. So Amazon fires this year could add 2 percent not 1 percent to that. Unless ocean-absorption ramps up in line with increased CO2 emission, for example of a carbon sink response. I also note the article quoted by ASLR in Ice Apocalypse thread regarding VPD (vapour pressure deficit), indicating a reduction in plant uptake of CO2 due to atmospheric moisture conditions.
Putting this all together, and it seems to me that wildfires have the potential to cause disproportionate climate change impact, due to their scale and suddeness, compared to 'BAU' CO2 emissions.
Thoughts?
Sic transit gloria mundi

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #251 on: August 25, 2019, 03:28:52 AM »
Yeap.... planet on fire...another positive feedback loop... yay...

crandles

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #252 on: August 25, 2019, 01:15:49 PM »
>assume there is no additional 'magic' capacity to absorb CO2 created

Perhaps a strange assumption. Ocean absorbs ~third of emissions each year because the higher CO2 level means higher partial pressures so more is absorbed. I think this is a fast response, weeks to months. So suggesting there is a hard limit to the amount absorbed each year doesn't really make sense to me. So for caution, I would prefer to stick to the 1% figure rather than 2%. That is of course 1% of anthropogenic emissions not of all natural emissions but it does look to be mainly anthropogenic rather than natural.

But yes there are more adverse effects like heat and moisture effects on nearby forest uptake of carbon.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #253 on: August 25, 2019, 02:24:17 PM »
That "30%" number will noticeably decrease at some point, as temperatures rise, but won't reach "0" for a while, apparently (although the linked research isn't 'just off the shelf' - more like 'off a dusty shelf!').

Warmer oceans release CO2 faster than thought
Earth 25 April 2011
By Wendy Zukerman

Quote
As the world’s oceans warm, their massive stores of dissolved carbon dioxide may be quick to bubble back out into the atmosphere and amplify the greenhouse effect, according to a new study.

The oceans capture around 30 per cent of human carbon dioxide emissions and hide it in their depths. This slows the march of global warming somewhat. But climate records from the end of the last ice age show that as temperatures climb, the trend reverses and the oceans emit CO2, which exacerbates warming.

Previous studies have suggested that it takes between 400 and 1300 years for this to happen. But now the most precise analysis to date has whittled that figure down.

Quick response
“We now think the delay is more like 200 years, possibly even less,” says Tas van Ommen from the Australian Antarctic Division, in Hobart, who led the study.
...

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20413-warmer-oceans-release-co2-faster-than-thought/#ixzz5xcBDmY4Q
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

RealityCheck

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #254 on: August 25, 2019, 02:31:51 PM »
All the above plus current Muana Loa data makes my vote in the 2019 poll look hopelessly optimistic... I chose the 2.0-2.5 band (!) Mind you, looks like we're overshooting the most popular band of 2.5-2.9 as well. 'Sic transit gloria mundi'
Sic transit gloria mundi

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #255 on: August 25, 2019, 03:15:29 PM »
All the above plus current Muana Loa data makes my vote in the 2019 poll look hopelessly optimistic... I chose the 2.0-2.5 band (!) Mind you, looks like we're overshooting the most popular band of 2.5-2.9 as well. 'Sic transit gloria mundi'

And one person actually voted for over 3.5 ppm!
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #256 on: August 25, 2019, 09:56:48 PM »
Here are the latest weekly values of CO2 concentration from Mauna Loa:
Week beginning on August 18, 2019:     409.57 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       406.90 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     385.71 ppm
Last updated: August 25, 2019

The yearly increase is below 3 ppm.

Next week last year was just above 406 ppm. With the latest value from this week it is a challenge to keep the yearly increase below 3 ppm, but there may be a downhill trend for the next week to the yearly minimum in September.

Renerpho

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #257 on: August 26, 2019, 10:35:40 AM »
The week 18 August - 24 August 2019 came in at 409.57 ppm (NOAA) and 409.72 ppm (Scripps). Compared to 2018, this is an increase of 2.67 ppm and 2.79 ppm, respectively. Next week's averages were 406.49 ppm (NOAA) and 406.46 ppm (Scripps). To keep the yearly increase below 3 ppm, 2019's values have to fall below 409.5 ppm.

If this year ended today, 2019 would have an increase of 3.06 ppm over 2018 (same for NOAA and Scripps).





« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 10:19:24 AM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #258 on: September 02, 2019, 10:31:13 PM »

Next week last year was just above 406 ppm. With the latest value from this week it is a challenge to keep the yearly increase below 3 ppm, but there may be a downhill trend for the next week to the yearly minimum in September.
The last week almost matched an annual increase of 3 ppm:

Week beginning on August 25, 2019:     409.46 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             406.48 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     385.78 ppm
Last updated: September 2, 2019

And, please, look at the value 10 years ago. It was 24 (and not 30) ppm lower than today. The increase rate is increasing (= acceleration), where it should decelerate to keep up with the 1.5°C or even the 2°C goal of IPCC.

Last year next week averaged at about 405.5 ppm. This is once again a challenge to keep the annual increase below 3 ppm.

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #259 on: September 06, 2019, 09:51:49 AM »
August 2019 came in at 409.95 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 2.96 ppm over August 2018.  The running 12-month average is at ~2.8 ppm, the 2nd highest level in the last 14 years after the 2015-2016 super Niño. 

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #260 on: September 06, 2019, 07:38:57 PM »
...and with 6 months (much) higher than the 12-months running-mean and two months close to this value the red curve will increase further until enough annual increase rates fall below 2.8 ppm.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #261 on: September 08, 2019, 08:47:45 PM »
Last year next week averaged at about 405.5 ppm. This is once again a challenge to keep the annual increase below 3 ppm.
My Sunday evening posting job:
Week beginning on September 1, 2019:     408.80 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               405.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             385.11 ppm
Last updated: September 8, 2019

This is an annual increase of more than 3 ppm

Last year next week came in at around 405.4 ppm, the lowest value in its annual cycle. It will be challenging again this year to keep the increase below 3 ppm; an increase of 3.3-3.5 seems to be more likely, unfortunately.

TerryM

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #262 on: September 08, 2019, 09:35:04 PM »
^^
Thanks for the posts!
Terry

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #263 on: September 08, 2019, 10:21:16 PM »
...you're welcome!  :)

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #264 on: September 15, 2019, 08:46:09 PM »

Last year next week came in at around 405.4 ppm, the lowest value in its annual cycle. It will be challenging again this year to keep the increase below 3 ppm; an increase of 3.3-3.5 seems to be more likely, unfortunately.
My Sunday evening posting job - - - There are the actual values:
Week beginning on September 8, 2019:     408.59 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                     405.31 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             384.69 ppm
Last updated: September 15, 2019

The annual increase remains persistently above 3 ppm.

Last year next week was a bit higher than this week. With a further small and slow decline in the next days we will (hopefully) see an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.