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What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 47336 times)

RealityCheck

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #250 on: August 25, 2019, 12:32:31 AM »
Right, so if we estimate 0.4GT CO2 from this season of Amazon fires (up from 0.23 now, i.e. adding a bit from now until end-of-season - and I admit based on absolutely no scientific basis whatsoever, but just to make the numbers easy); then the Amazon will contribute 1 percent of annual CO2 emissions this year.
Now, if we assume there is no additional 'magic' capacity to absorb CO2 created; and that the loss of forest diminishes absorption capacity, then the best case is that all that extra CO2 persists in the atmosphere. So if 'about half' of annual CO2 is now absorbed, then c. 20 GT per annum persists. So Amazon fires this year could add 2 percent not 1 percent to that. Unless ocean-absorption ramps up in line with increased CO2 emission, for example of a carbon sink response. I also note the article quoted by ASLR in Ice Apocalypse thread regarding VPD (vapour pressure deficit), indicating a reduction in plant uptake of CO2 due to atmospheric moisture conditions.
Putting this all together, and it seems to me that wildfires have the potential to cause disproportionate climate change impact, due to their scale and suddeness, compared to 'BAU' CO2 emissions.
Thoughts?
Sic transit gloria mundi

DrTskoul

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #251 on: August 25, 2019, 03:28:52 AM »
Yeap.... planet on fire...another positive feedback loop... yay...

crandles

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #252 on: August 25, 2019, 01:15:49 PM »
>assume there is no additional 'magic' capacity to absorb CO2 created

Perhaps a strange assumption. Ocean absorbs ~third of emissions each year because the higher CO2 level means higher partial pressures so more is absorbed. I think this is a fast response, weeks to months. So suggesting there is a hard limit to the amount absorbed each year doesn't really make sense to me. So for caution, I would prefer to stick to the 1% figure rather than 2%. That is of course 1% of anthropogenic emissions not of all natural emissions but it does look to be mainly anthropogenic rather than natural.

But yes there are more adverse effects like heat and moisture effects on nearby forest uptake of carbon.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #253 on: August 25, 2019, 02:24:17 PM »
That "30%" number will noticeably decrease at some point, as temperatures rise, but won't reach "0" for a while, apparently (although the linked research isn't 'just off the shelf' - more like 'off a dusty shelf!').

Warmer oceans release CO2 faster than thought
Earth 25 April 2011
By Wendy Zukerman

Quote
As the world’s oceans warm, their massive stores of dissolved carbon dioxide may be quick to bubble back out into the atmosphere and amplify the greenhouse effect, according to a new study.

The oceans capture around 30 per cent of human carbon dioxide emissions and hide it in their depths. This slows the march of global warming somewhat. But climate records from the end of the last ice age show that as temperatures climb, the trend reverses and the oceans emit CO2, which exacerbates warming.

Previous studies have suggested that it takes between 400 and 1300 years for this to happen. But now the most precise analysis to date has whittled that figure down.

Quick response
“We now think the delay is more like 200 years, possibly even less,” says Tas van Ommen from the Australian Antarctic Division, in Hobart, who led the study.
...

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20413-warmer-oceans-release-co2-faster-than-thought/#ixzz5xcBDmY4Q
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RealityCheck

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #254 on: August 25, 2019, 02:31:51 PM »
All the above plus current Muana Loa data makes my vote in the 2019 poll look hopelessly optimistic... I chose the 2.0-2.5 band (!) Mind you, looks like we're overshooting the most popular band of 2.5-2.9 as well. 'Sic transit gloria mundi'
Sic transit gloria mundi

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #255 on: August 25, 2019, 03:15:29 PM »
All the above plus current Muana Loa data makes my vote in the 2019 poll look hopelessly optimistic... I chose the 2.0-2.5 band (!) Mind you, looks like we're overshooting the most popular band of 2.5-2.9 as well. 'Sic transit gloria mundi'

And one person actually voted for over 3.5 ppm!
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #256 on: August 25, 2019, 09:56:48 PM »
Here are the latest weekly values of CO2 concentration from Mauna Loa:
Week beginning on August 18, 2019:     409.57 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       406.90 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     385.71 ppm
Last updated: August 25, 2019

The yearly increase is below 3 ppm.

Next week last year was just above 406 ppm. With the latest value from this week it is a challenge to keep the yearly increase below 3 ppm, but there may be a downhill trend for the next week to the yearly minimum in September.
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Renerpho

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #257 on: August 26, 2019, 10:35:40 AM »
The week 18 August - 24 August 2019 came in at 409.57 ppm (NOAA) and 409.72 ppm (Scripps). Compared to 2018, this is an increase of 2.67 ppm and 2.79 ppm, respectively. Next week's averages were 406.49 ppm (NOAA) and 406.46 ppm (Scripps). To keep the yearly increase below 3 ppm, 2019's values have to fall below 409.5 ppm.

If this year ended today, 2019 would have an increase of 3.06 ppm over 2018 (same for NOAA and Scripps).





« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 10:19:24 AM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #258 on: September 02, 2019, 10:31:13 PM »

Next week last year was just above 406 ppm. With the latest value from this week it is a challenge to keep the yearly increase below 3 ppm, but there may be a downhill trend for the next week to the yearly minimum in September.
The last week almost matched an annual increase of 3 ppm:

Week beginning on August 25, 2019:     409.46 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             406.48 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     385.78 ppm
Last updated: September 2, 2019

And, please, look at the value 10 years ago. It was 24 (and not 30) ppm lower than today. The increase rate is increasing (= acceleration), where it should decelerate to keep up with the 1.5°C or even the 2°C goal of IPCC.

Last year next week averaged at about 405.5 ppm. This is once again a challenge to keep the annual increase below 3 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #259 on: September 06, 2019, 09:51:49 AM »
August 2019 came in at 409.95 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 2.96 ppm over August 2018.  The running 12-month average is at ~2.8 ppm, the 2nd highest level in the last 14 years after the 2015-2016 super Niño. 

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #260 on: September 06, 2019, 07:38:57 PM »
...and with 6 months (much) higher than the 12-months running-mean and two months close to this value the red curve will increase further until enough annual increase rates fall below 2.8 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #261 on: September 08, 2019, 08:47:45 PM »
Last year next week averaged at about 405.5 ppm. This is once again a challenge to keep the annual increase below 3 ppm.
My Sunday evening posting job:
Week beginning on September 1, 2019:     408.80 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               405.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             385.11 ppm
Last updated: September 8, 2019

This is an annual increase of more than 3 ppm

Last year next week came in at around 405.4 ppm, the lowest value in its annual cycle. It will be challenging again this year to keep the increase below 3 ppm; an increase of 3.3-3.5 seems to be more likely, unfortunately.
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TerryM

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #262 on: September 08, 2019, 09:35:04 PM »
^^
Thanks for the posts!
Terry

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #263 on: September 08, 2019, 10:21:16 PM »
...you're welcome!  :)
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #264 on: September 15, 2019, 08:46:09 PM »

Last year next week came in at around 405.4 ppm, the lowest value in its annual cycle. It will be challenging again this year to keep the increase below 3 ppm; an increase of 3.3-3.5 seems to be more likely, unfortunately.
My Sunday evening posting job - - - There are the actual values:
Week beginning on September 8, 2019:     408.59 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                     405.31 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             384.69 ppm
Last updated: September 15, 2019

The annual increase remains persistently above 3 ppm.

Last year next week was a bit higher than this week. With a further small and slow decline in the next days we will (hopefully) see an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #265 on: September 22, 2019, 06:50:17 PM »
Last year next week was a bit higher than this week. With a further small and slow decline in the next days we will (hopefully) see an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
There are the actual values, now showing an annual increase below 3 ppm:
Week beginning on September 15, 2019:     408.50 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               405.67 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            384.59 ppm
Last updated: September 22, 2019

Next week last year was a bit lower than this week. With slightly decreasing CO2 concentrations in the next days we will manage to keep the annual increase below 3 ppm again.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #266 on: September 23, 2019, 06:43:50 PM »
Last week was also the bottom in 2018.  I believe that's earlier than usual so 2019 will likely go slightly lower for a weekly average.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #267 on: September 24, 2019, 09:59:57 PM »
Just assuming that we follow the 2.5-3.5 ppm annual increasing path in the next months we will soon reach the latest day with a CO2 concentration below 410 ppm. All further values will be above that level. :(
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #268 on: September 29, 2019, 07:01:34 PM »
Preliminary September NOAA CO2 growth rate.  Doesn't include today or the 30th but shouldn't change much.  September 2019 Average will be around 408.50 ppm.  Almost exactly 3 ppm growth rate over 2018.  The running 12-month average growth rate is also now almost exactly 3 ppm.

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #269 on: September 29, 2019, 09:21:31 PM »
Next week last year was a bit lower than this week. With slightly decreasing CO2 concentrations in the next days we will manage to keep the annual increase below 3 ppm again.
And here it is - my Sunday evening CO2 weekly value posting:
Week beginning on September 22, 2019:     408.32 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               405.63 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            384.73 ppm
Last updated: September 29, 2019

Annual increase again lower than 3 ppm, and not by a smidgeon.

Last year next week has been the same level as this week. At the moment there is no indication for a sudden uptick of CO2 levels, therefore first October week should rather see a 2.6-2.8 ppm annual increase.
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nanning

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #270 on: September 30, 2019, 06:16:12 AM »
Thanks for these updates Stephan.

Everytime I look at the level from 10 years ago (only 10 years!) I 'feel' the acceleration.
(384ppm-280ppm) / (30ppm/decade) = ca. 3.5 decades = 2009-35 = 1974

[sarc]So happy that we have the 2015 Paris accord to keep it in check[/sarc]
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #271 on: October 06, 2019, 09:13:13 PM »
Last year next week has been the same level as this week. At the moment there is no indication for a sudden uptick of CO2 levels, therefore first October week should rather see a 2.6-2.8 ppm annual increase.
My Sunday evening CO2 posting service:
Week beginning on September 29, 2019:     407.96 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               405.49 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            383.85 ppm
Last updated: October 6, 2019

This is one of the smallest annual increase I have ever reported, and a bit lower than I had expected last Sunday.
It looks as if we have reached the seasonal minimum on Oct 4 (407.5 ppm) and that from now on until May 2020 rising values will predominate.

Last year the next week had the same average than this week. Therefore any increase in value will also directly influence the annual increase. I expect an uptick to around 2.8 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #272 on: October 13, 2019, 11:54:45 AM »
The monthly CO2 average for September 2019 has been published.
September 2019:       408.54 ppm
September 2018:       405.51 ppm
Last updated: October 7, 2019
This is an increase of 3.03 ppm  >:(
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #273 on: October 13, 2019, 09:28:29 PM »
Last year the next week had the same average than this week. Therefore any increase in value will also directly influence the annual increase. I expect an uptick to around 2.8 ppm.
My Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting job.
Week beginning on October 6, 2019:     408.39 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             405.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     384.06 ppm
Last updated: October 13, 2019

Annual increase almost at 2.9 ppm. The seasonal minimum clearly happened on Oct 3 and 4 with around 407.5 ppm. From now on it will go upwards.

Next week last year had an average of around 406 ppm. With a slow daily upward trend in the coming week the annual increase will keep well below 3 ppm. After that the daily increase will be steeper, but, of course, last year also showed an acceleration by 0.5 to 2 ppm per week into November.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #274 on: October 20, 2019, 08:34:37 PM »
Next week last year had an average of around 406 ppm. With a slow daily upward trend in the coming week the annual increase will keep well below 3 ppm. After that the daily increase will be steeper, but, of course, last year also showed an acceleration by 0.5 to 2 ppm per week into November.
My Sunday evening posting about the actual Mauna Loa CO2 concentration:

Week beginning on October 13, 2019:     408.62 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                405.99 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             384.45 ppm
Last updated: October 20, 2019

This is an annual increase of 2.6 ppm, well below 3 ppm. Nevertheless, the 10 year average shows that since 2009 CO2 concentration annually rose by 'only' 2.4 ppm.

Next week last year averaged at 406.7 ppm. It is highly likely that the annual increase will be more towards 2.5 instead of 3 ppm. This should make October 2019 become one of the fewer months this year with an increase of well below 3.0 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #275 on: October 27, 2019, 06:54:12 PM »
Next week last year averaged at 406.7 ppm. It is highly likely that the annual increase will be more towards 2.5 instead of 3 ppm. This should make October 2019 become one of the fewer months this year with an increase of well below 3.0 ppm.
My Sunday evening CO2 actualisation:
Week beginning on October 20, 2019:      408.78 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 406.61 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             384.74 ppm
Last updated: October 27, 2019

This is an annual increase of less than 2.2 ppm, the lowest since I started this weekly service.

What about next week?
Last year next week averaged at 406.5. My guess is a slightly higher annual increase at about 2.5 ppm. We will have two weeks with CO2 below 410 ppm, after that the seasonal increase will speed up - and values below 410 ppm will be a thing of the past, although they may re-appear on a daily basis in October 2020.
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kassy

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #276 on: October 27, 2019, 11:51:55 PM »
This week had data for all days?
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #277 on: October 28, 2019, 10:00:18 PM »
No, October 25 had no average value, probably the ups and downs during that day failed the criteria that NOAA demands for their data.
Quote: "We require low variability within each hour and between successive hourly averages, as well as a degree of persistence of the likely valid "background" hours between successive days."
This was obviously not the case for Oct 25.
If I do the average of Oct 24 and 26 and if I average the hourly data points of that day Oct 25 would have been at 408.8 ppm, which is almost the weekly average (see my posting above). Therefore that missing day did not have any influence on the value of the annual increase.
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Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #278 on: November 03, 2019, 04:26:04 PM »
What about next week?
Last year next week averaged at 406.5. My guess is a slightly higher annual increase at about 2.5 ppm. We will have two weeks with CO2 below 410 ppm, after that the seasonal increase will speed up - and values below 410 ppm will be a thing of the past, although they may re-appear on a daily basis in October 2020.
My Sunday evening CO2 level posting:

Week beginning on October 27, 2019:     409.32 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                406.43 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            385.06 ppm
Last updated: November 3, 2019

This is an increase of almost 2.9 ppm, higher than I expected and higher than the last weeks. The reason for this is a much higher than "usual" value on Nov 1 (increase of 1.4 ppm vs. Oct 31). I wonder that it has passed the quality criteria of NOAA (Nov 02 was too noisy so there was no value available on that date).

Last year next week showed an average of 407 ppm. My "best guess" for the annual increase would be 2.8 ppm, but predictions are difficult at the moment because of the actual noisiness of the signal and the beginning rapid seasonal increase in November.

PS: It may well be that next week will be the last week ever recorded with an average below 410 ppm.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #279 on: November 08, 2019, 01:28:45 AM »
October 2019 came in at +2.53 ppm over October 2018.  Looks like 12-month rate running average is approaching the next peak: just under 3.0 ppm. 

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #280 on: November 10, 2019, 08:21:18 PM »
Last year next week showed an average of 407 ppm. My "best guess" for the annual increase would be 2.8 ppm, but predictions are difficult at the moment because of the actual noisiness of the signal and the beginning rapid seasonal increase in November.

PS: It may well be that next week will be the last week ever recorded with an average below 410 ppm.

My Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 service.
Week beginning on November 3, 2019:     409.90 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 406.99 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             385.42 ppm
Last updated: November 10, 2019

Tuesday Nov 5 was the last day with a value below 410 ppm.
The annual increase increased to 2.91 ppm.

Next week last year averaged at 408.8 ppm, a high jump compared to this week last year. Therefore it is very likely that the annual increase will be reduced to about 1.5 ppm.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #281 on: November 13, 2019, 03:24:16 PM »
NOAA's November 11 reading dropped below 410 ppm at Mauna Loa.  Last daily reading below 410 ppm?

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #282 on: November 17, 2019, 08:42:20 PM »
Next week last year averaged at 408.8 ppm, a high jump compared to this week last year. Therefore it is very likely that the annual increase will be reduced to about 1.5 ppm.

It is time for my weekly update of Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations.
Week beginning on November 10, 2019:     410.25 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   408.91 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                385.76 ppm
Last updated: November 17, 2019

The increase was even smaller than I expected. This is by far the lowest annual growing rate since I started posting it. But I have to disencourage those who think this is a change in trend. This week was extraordinary because of the high jump atmospheric CO2 made last year.

Last year next week came in at around 408.5 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the future the growth rate will increase back to 2.0 ppm.

Apart from Monday this week there was no further daily average below 410 ppm. But the last two days saw some hours with less than 410 ppm. In fact, the last two days were so noisy that no daily average was published.
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crandles

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #283 on: November 22, 2019, 08:15:21 PM »
NOAA's November 11 reading dropped below 410 ppm at Mauna Loa.  Last daily reading below 410 ppm?

November 21:     410.49 ppm
November 20:     410.05 ppm
November 19:     410.17 ppm
November 18:     Unavailable
November 17:     409.81 ppm

Nov 17 reading under 410 has survived quality control so far.

Not impossible that we will get another reading under 410 in the next week or 2 or around Sep/Oct next year, but Nov 17 2019 could be last one below 410 for a long time.

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #284 on: November 24, 2019, 08:27:25 PM »
Last year next week came in at around 408.5 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the future the growth rate will increase back to 2.0 ppm.

My Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 service:
Week beginning on November 17, 2019:     410.19 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   408.52 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                386.36 ppm
Last updated: November 24, 2019

That is an annual increase of almost 1.7 ppm, a little less than I had expected last Sunday.
The reason for this has been a very moderate increase with ups and downs, even daily averages below 410 ppm are possible next week.

Next week last year averaged at 408.4 ppm. Only if the daily values will start to increase more vigorously than this week, an annual increase of 2 ppm is possible. Otherwise the rate will stay at the moderate value it has been at this week.
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blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #285 on: November 25, 2019, 05:58:07 PM »
Impressive video! But not the good way...  :-[

Carbon Dioxide Pumphandle 2019

Refugees welcome

TerryM

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #286 on: November 26, 2019, 05:30:16 AM »
^^
Raman
Terry

Stephan

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #287 on: November 26, 2019, 10:29:16 PM »
I have seen it somewhere some time ago. Thanks for posting it here, blumenkraft!
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

blumenkraft

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #288 on: November 27, 2019, 08:24:29 PM »
Welcome, Stephan. I guess this is the updated version.
Refugees welcome

Hefaistos

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #289 on: November 28, 2019, 03:54:04 AM »
October 2019 came in at +2.53 ppm over October 2018.  Looks like 12-month rate running average is approaching the next peak: just under 3.0 ppm.

If we were on an exponential growth of CO2, we would have a growing rate of increase. As in the very long-term CO2 record.

The curve you fitted in the graph above actually shows a declining rate of increase.
Are we currently leaving the exponential growth of CO2?

wili

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #290 on: November 28, 2019, 05:37:11 AM »
?
Am I missing something?

None of the lines in his graph are pointing downward, so they do not indicate a decrease in the rate of growth.

Perhaps the rate of acceleration of increase is not increasing. If you want to squeeze some kind of comfort out of that, be my guest.

But maybe someone who has taken math more recently than 45 some years ago should chime in here before I embarrass myself further?? :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Hefaistos

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #291 on: November 28, 2019, 06:27:34 AM »
?
Am I missing something?

None of the lines in his graph are pointing downward, so they do not indicate a decrease in the rate of growth.

Perhaps the rate of acceleration of increase is not increasing. If you want to squeeze some kind of comfort out of that, be my guest.

But maybe someone who has taken math more recently than 45 some years ago should chime in here before I embarrass myself further?? :)
:)
No big deal, the second derivative follows from the first derivate.
Following the curve fitted in the figure, both would be negative for that part of the curve we see.


KiwiGriff

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #292 on: November 28, 2019, 06:52:50 AM »



https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/
Quote
What might be the clearest illustration comes from computing annual average CO2 concentration and using it to estimate the year-on-year change, which is the velocity of CO2 concentration. Acceleration will show as a trend in the velocity. Here are the estimates, together with a trend line which illustrates the overall rise in velocity (i.e. acceleration of CO2):




JMP

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #293 on: November 28, 2019, 07:05:45 AM »
No big deal, the second derivative follows from the first derivate.
Following the curve fitted in the figure, both would be negative for that part of the curve we see.
Perhaps you aren't seeing enough? I can't tell exactly what you're looking at... but here's how the math is done by https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm

"In short, following the 'business as usual' approach without major steps to move away from fossil fuels and limit greenhouse gas emissions, we will likely reach 850 to 950 ppmv of atmospheric CO2 by the year 2100.  It will have taken approximately 200 years (from 1850 to 2050) for the first doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 560 ppmv, but it will only take another 70 years or so to double the levels again to 1120 ppmv."

KiwiGriff

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #294 on: November 28, 2019, 07:12:04 AM »
Hefaistos Halitosis
To paraphrase David Lange.
I can smell the CO2 on your breath.

Hefaistos

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #295 on: November 28, 2019, 07:18:01 AM »
No big deal, the second derivative follows from the first derivate.
Following the curve fitted in the figure, both would be negative for that part of the curve we see.
Perhaps you aren't seeing enough? I can't tell exactly what you're looking at... but here's how the math is done by https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm

"In short, following the 'business as usual' approach without major steps to move away from fossil fuels and limit greenhouse gas emissions, we will likely reach 850 to 950 ppmv of atmospheric CO2 by the year 2100.  It will have taken approximately 200 years (from 1850 to 2050) for the first doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 560 ppmv, but it will only take another 70 years or so to double the levels again to 1120 ppmv."

I'm just looking at wolfpack's figure in Reply #279.
He has a polynomial fitted to the data, and it's first derivative is negative, as well as its second derivative.
It means, if true, that we have left the time of acceleration, and now have deceleration.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2019, 07:23:42 AM by Hefaistos »

Hefaistos

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #296 on: November 28, 2019, 07:21:25 AM »
Hefaistos Halitosis
To paraphrase David Lange.
I can smell the CO2 on your breath.

 ;D ;D ;D
We should send you to Mauna Loa if you're so sensitive.
 ;D ;D ;D

JMP

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #297 on: November 28, 2019, 07:47:22 AM »
No big deal, the second derivative follows from the first derivate.
Following the curve fitted in the figure, both would be negative for that part of the curve we see.
Perhaps you aren't seeing enough? I can't tell exactly what you're looking at... but here's how the math is done by https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm

"In short, following the 'business as usual' approach without major steps to move away from fossil fuels and limit greenhouse gas emissions, we will likely reach 850 to 950 ppmv of atmospheric CO2 by the year 2100.  It will have taken approximately 200 years (from 1850 to 2050) for the first doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 560 ppmv, but it will only take another 70 years or so to double the levels again to 1120 ppmv."

I'm just looking at wolfpack's figure in Reply #279.
He has a polynomial fitted to the data, and it's first derivative is negative, as well as its second derivative.
It means, if true, that we have left the time of acceleration, and now have deceleration.
Do you Actually believe the truth hangs on this post?
Can you not see your own folly?

No you cannot.

If you're not putting forth a good-faith effort to comprehend and understand beyond the level of nit picking!  then... frankly, you've crossed over to the point of unreasonable imho.     

KiwiGriff

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #298 on: November 28, 2019, 07:54:36 AM »
You are a denier my friend.
You have posted some outright crap like wind speed in the trades as  a proxy for the southern ocean wind speed and SST's as a measurement of  ocean heat content .
If you think with such a noisy data series you can make a case for negative acceleration based on that short a time frame you are  deluded . No one with a clue would propose  a claim that is so far from statistical significance as to be  unsupportable .
You can put in as many smiley faces as you like being a denier  still makes you an extremely low form of life.

Hefaistos

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Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #299 on: November 28, 2019, 11:49:24 AM »
No big deal, the second derivative follows from the first derivate.
Following the curve fitted in the figure, both would be negative for that part of the curve we see.
Perhaps you aren't seeing enough? I can't tell exactly what you're looking at... but here's how the math is done by https://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm

"In short, following the 'business as usual' approach without major steps to move away from fossil fuels and limit greenhouse gas emissions, we will likely reach 850 to 950 ppmv of atmospheric CO2 by the year 2100.  It will have taken approximately 200 years (from 1850 to 2050) for the first doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 560 ppmv, but it will only take another 70 years or so to double the levels again to 1120 ppmv."

I'm just looking at wolfpack's figure in Reply #279.
He has a polynomial fitted to the data, and it's first derivative is negative, as well as its second derivative.
It means, if true, that we have left the time of acceleration, and now have deceleration.
Do you Actually believe the truth hangs on this post?
Can you not see your own folly?

No you cannot.

If you're not putting forth a good-faith effort to comprehend and understand beyond the level of nit picking!  then... frankly, you've crossed over to the point of unreasonable imho.   

This is pure mathematics.
That curve displays deceleration.
Nothing to dispute about that.
All have to obey to the rules of mathematics, even you JMP.
Then we can discuss if it's a realistic fit, which degree of polynomial. (I suppose wolfpack can tell us what degree the polynomial is that he fitted.)

JMP, this is not about various forecasts for the future, this is just what happened during the last 12 years of CO2 in the atmosphere. (the time scale is blurry, but seems to me to be the last 12 years).
And btw, we seem to have left the RCP 8.5 behind us already, as global coal emissions are now declining.