Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

What will 2019's annual C02 concentration growth be over 2018?

≤ 2.0 ppm
0 (0%)
2.1 - 2.5 ppm
11 (33.3%)
2.5 - 2.9 ppm
17 (51.5%)
3.0 - 3.4 ppm
4 (12.1%)
≥ 3.5 ppm
1 (3%)

Total Members Voted: 31

Voting closed: February 02, 2019, 12:48:04 AM

Author Topic: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 47589 times)

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #350 on: December 02, 2019, 05:33:24 PM »
I calculated 410.30 ppm for November 2019 from NOAA Mauna Loa data.  Official data will come down in a few days.

That's a growth rate of 2.28 ppm over November 2018.  Trailing 12-month average is now beginning to dip below the most recent peak.  Looks like 2019 will come in around ~2.90 ppm but of course that depends on the next 4 weeks.

Hefaistos

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 441
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 130
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #351 on: December 03, 2019, 12:19:35 PM »
Wolfpack,
thanks for your posts on Mauna Loa CO2.
I have a question on how you make the polynomials in the latest figures
In Reply #279 on October CO2, you have fitted what seems to be a second degree polynomial.
In the November graph you have a polynomial of a higher degree, obviously.
How many months of data go into the polynomials?
Which data do you use, daily, weekly or monthly?
Is there any particular reason that you changed the degree of the polynomial?

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #352 on: December 04, 2019, 02:04:24 AM »
Nice catch Hefaistos.  Yea I was playing around with the polynomial and  forgot to make note of it.  I increased it to the 4th degree.  My understanding in this regression is limited and was concerned about overfitting but wanted something other than just linear. 

I use the monthly data from: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt

 November 2019 was just an estimate based on daily/weekly data until the monthly value comes down. 

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #353 on: December 05, 2019, 04:46:57 AM »
**Edit** chart is backwards.  Should say CO2 growth rate lags ENSO by 5 months.

Here's NOAA monthly CO2 growth rates vs Niño 3.4 ONIs.  I lagged CO2 Growth rate by 5 months and seemed to line up with NIÑO 3.4 ONI.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 05:32:35 PM by wolfpack513 »

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 859
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 362
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #354 on: December 05, 2019, 02:00:20 PM »
But what does that mean? It tells us that the 3.4 region lags global CO2 by about 5 month?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1069
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 6970
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #355 on: December 05, 2019, 04:45:00 PM »
I thought the lag is living nature emitting more CO2 because of changed weather.
Perhaps also increased fossil fuel burning through increased airco use? ;)
Perhaps I'm getting stupid.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #356 on: December 05, 2019, 05:29:56 PM »
But what does that mean? It tells us that the 3.4 region lags global CO2 by about 5 month?

Whoops brain fart.  I have it backwards.  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months. 

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1474
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 139
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #357 on: December 05, 2019, 05:53:32 PM »
Drought causes terrestrial carbon sinks to absorb less atmospheric CO2. Atmospheric CO2 rises as a result
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180829133214.htm

“Using these new satellite observations of water storage, Vincent Humphrey and his colleagues were able to measure the overall impact of droughts on photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. They compared year-to-year changes in total water mass over all continents against global measurements of CO2 increase in the atmosphere. They found that during the driest years such as 2015, natural ecosystems removed about 30% percent less carbon from the atmosphere than during a normal year. As a result, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increased faster in 2015 compared to normal years. At the other end of the scale, during the wettest year on record in 2011, CO2 concentrations increased at a much slower rate due to healthy vegetation. These results help us understand why atmospheric CO2 growth can vary a lot from one year to the other, even though CO2 emissions from human activities are comparatively stable.”

KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 311
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #358 on: December 05, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
Quote
  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months.
As does the  Atmospheric Response to ENSO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1391
The Nature and Causes for the Delayed Atmospheric Response to El Niño

Pmt111500

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1887
  • Yes, I do not always bicycle
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #359 on: December 06, 2019, 04:14:57 PM »
Quote
  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months.
As does the  Atmospheric Response to ENSO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1391
The Nature and Causes for the Delayed Atmospheric Response to El Niño
Yep, that's what happens when Nino dissipates over tropical/subtropical Pacific and warms up the surface widely so exchange to ocean becomes more difficult.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 311
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 178
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #360 on: December 06, 2019, 05:53:42 PM »
Enso also effects temperatures on land and rainfall distribution influencing terrestrial uptake by the biosphere .

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 800
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 266
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #361 on: December 08, 2019, 08:32:02 PM »
Next week last year stayed around 408.5 ppm. At the moment the day-to-day changes are small, therefore an annual increase of slightly above 2 ppm is likely.
My Sunday evening weekly (and in addition today, monthly) CO2 service.
Week beginning on December 1, 2019:     411.07 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 408.47 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              387.08 ppm
Last updated: December 8, 2019.
This is an annual increase of 2.6 ppm, more than I had expected last Sunday.

The month has finished and here is the monthly average for November 2019:
November 2019:       410.27 ppm
November 2018:       408.02 ppm
Last updated: December 5, 2019
The annual increase of 2.25 ppm is at the lower edge of values we saw this year.

Outlook:
Next week last year averaged at 409.3 ppm, which is a jump from this week last year by about 1 ppm. The daily values are on the rise, therefore an annual increase slightly above 2 ppm should be expected.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change