http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 30 June 2019Again almost a word for word repeat of yesterday's post because this event just will not stop.
Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, the
maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.
Precipitation, mainly in the South East, was not strong, and mass loss was
aroundaverage.
Outlook - a tale of 2 halves, West and East.
GFS
Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days now looking like very dry to drought in the West coast and centre, some precipitation all the way down the East coast. Much is coming all the way from a warm/hot western Siberia passing over the Atlantic edge of the Arctic sea ice. A bit of rain may come from the south to affect the southern tip of Greenland. GFS says at least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.
Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with considerable warmth arriving into the far North. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase.
SMB mass change is a matter of which will prevail, precipitation and melt. But it still looks likely the SMB graph will show the 2019 line continuing to cross the 2012 red line in a day or two.
And what is the prognosis for calving given all this melt and runoff ? Not a lot of news about icebergs in Baffin Bay and iceberg alley to be found.
It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
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Note from DMIWhen comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.Note from me (to any denier creeps out there):
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
WOBBLY GIF ATTACHED - click to start