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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #200 on: June 14, 2019, 08:34:47 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 13 June 2019

Melt was much stronger and well above average, another maximum for the year. Precipitation was minimal. Hence SMB had a very large mass loss  increasing again the -ve SMB anomaly for Greenland.
_________________________________________________________
[/b]My prediction that belongs to me is now from today -Friday - until Sunday will see a strong melt and little snow, and in the days after melt likely to moderate considerably.
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Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #201 on: June 14, 2019, 06:51:11 PM »
The early melt action this week is very interesting as 2019 attempts to keep pace with 2012.  However, the longer term context is even more important. 

A new paper was published yesterday by Dr. Ruth Mottram from the Danish Meteorological Institute tracking three decades of observational data regarding the loss of ice sheet mass and how it compares to modeled projections.

Quote
Observations show surface lowering across virtually all regions of the ice sheet and at some locations up to −2.65 m year −1 between 1995 and 2017 based on radar altimetry analysis. In addition, calving fronts at 28 study sites, representing a sample of typical glaciers, have retreated all around Greenland since the 1990s and in only two out of 28 study locations have they remained stable. During the same period, two of five floating ice shelves have collapsed while the locations of grounding lines at the remaining three floating ice shelves have remained stable over the observation period. In a detailed case study with a fracture model at Petermann glacier, we demonstrate the potential sensitivity of these floating ice shelves to future warming. GRACE gravimetrically-derived mass balance (GMB) data shows that overall Greenland has lost 255 ± 15 Gt year −1 of ice over the period 2003 to 2016, consistent with that shown by IMBIE and a marked increase compared to a rate of loss of 83 ± 63 Gt year −1 in the 1993–2003 period.     

The rapid increase in the annual loss of ice during the period 2003 to 2016 compared to the period 1993 to 2003 is particularly troubling. 

Paper is open access at the link below:

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/12/1407/htm

 

Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #202 on: June 14, 2019, 07:33:21 PM »

The rapid increase in the annual loss of ice during the period 2003 to 2016 compared to the period 1993 to 2003 is particularly troubling. 

This is equivalent to a tripling of the loss rate. If it tripled again in the next period (up to 2030) the mass loss would end at around 750-800 Gt year-1 (equivalent to around 2 mm year-1 global sea level rise only from Grønland).
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Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #203 on: June 15, 2019, 02:15:31 AM »
Good article about the recent ice loss in Greenland.  Zack and Rick Thoman are both quoted in it.  It also features the photo Jim and FOW posted on here earlier. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/14/arctic-ocean-greenland-ice-sheet-have-seen-record-june-ice-loss/

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #204 on: June 15, 2019, 11:51:35 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 14 June 2019

Melt was stronger and very much above average, another maximum for the year. Precipitation was low. Hence SMB had a large mass loss  increasing again the -ve SMB anomaly for Greenland.

[/b]My prediction that belongs to me is now from today -Friday - until Sunday or maybe even Tuesday will see a strong melt , and in the days after melt likely to moderate but perhaps still above average..

Precipitation is looking very dry over most of Greenland with perhaps moderate precipitation in the NorthWest (opposite corner to usual).

Strong SMB mass loss to continue?
_____________________________________________________

Click on melt image to activate gif - only goes round 5 times (slowly)
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 11:56:40 AM by gerontocrat »
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grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #205 on: June 15, 2019, 12:17:30 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 14 June 2019
...

I have a noob question, why does that accumulated SMB graph show that over the course of a year, the total mass typically increases, even in the record 2012 season? That seems to contradict for example this graph from NASA that shows that every year the net balance is a mass decrease: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

BenB

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #206 on: June 15, 2019, 12:43:26 PM »
I believe that basically the total mass balance for Greenland comes from surface accumulation/runoff (surface mass balance), basal melting, and ice discharge through calving.

Surface mass balance is (almost?) always positive, but in recent decades it has been much less positive, and has been massively outweighed by the negative mass balance from the other effects.

oren

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #207 on: June 15, 2019, 12:46:00 PM »
In general: Surface Mass Balance includes precipitation (snow amd rain) added, minus sublimation and melt runoff.
But it does not include the flow of ice into the sea, mostly in the form of calving of icebergs.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #208 on: June 15, 2019, 01:34:15 PM »
First paragraph from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

which is why I usually add a link to my posts.
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grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #209 on: June 15, 2019, 01:51:02 PM »
I see, thanks for the info

Thomas Barlow

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #210 on: June 15, 2019, 02:36:02 PM »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #211 on: June 15, 2019, 02:55:29 PM »
I'm quite surprised CNN would cover that! Good on them i guess.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #212 on: June 15, 2019, 03:02:49 PM »
"Greenland lost 2 billion tons of ice yesterday, which is very unusual"
 - CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

FIFY :)

Thomas, when you share a link, could you please delete the Facebook spy part (which is everything after the real link including the question mark i.e. ?fbclid=IwAR3m_QoBi3-oSOYbilFUvVwChFER9C5EH586lUEJmBDKoCPMMBHrzPMtODQ)?

Everyone clicking this link will be tracked by Facebook even if they don't have an account.

jai mitchell

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #213 on: June 15, 2019, 03:32:13 PM »
Dr. Jason Box from 2 weeks ago predicting the melt we just saw and its implications for the rest of the season.

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grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #214 on: June 15, 2019, 06:46:27 PM »
New melt ponds are appearing in the Freya Glacier webcam: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #215 on: June 15, 2019, 08:48:27 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Thomas Barlow

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #216 on: June 16, 2019, 01:54:39 AM »
"Greenland lost 2 billion tons of ice yesterday, which is very unusual"
 - CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

FIFY :)

Thomas, when you share a link, could you please delete the Facebook spy part (which is everything after the real link including the question mark i.e. ?fbclid=IwAR3m_QoBi3-oSOYbilFUvVwChFER9C5EH586lUEJmBDKoCPMMBHrzPMtODQ)?

Everyone clicking this link will be tracked by Facebook even if they don't have an account.

 ;D
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 02:20:26 PM by Thomas Barlow »

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #217 on: June 16, 2019, 09:35:04 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 15 June 2019

Melt was stronger and very much above average, another maximum for the year. Precipitation was low but not that low. Hence SMB had a largish mass loss  increasing again the -ve SMB anomaly for Greenland.

[/b]My prediction that belongs to me is now from today - Sunday - until Tuesday will see a strong melt , and in the days after melt likely to moderate but perhaps still above average..

Precipitation is looking very dry over most of Greenland with perhaps moderate precipitation in the NorthWest (opposite corner to usual).

Strong SMB mass loss to continue but at a lower rate?
_____________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #218 on: June 16, 2019, 09:32:52 PM »
Looks like another huge melt event just happened.

The whole southern half of Greenland that is.

GIF showing 16.04. ~10:00h to 16:00h UTC

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #219 on: June 17, 2019, 08:02:54 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 16 June 2019

Melt was stronger and very much above average, another maximum for the year. Precipitation was low. Hence SMB had a large mass loss increasing again the -ve SMB anomaly for Greenland.

[/b]My prediction that belongs to me is that today and Tuesday will see a strong melt, and in the days after melt likely to moderate but perhaps still above average..

Precipitation in the next week is looking very dry over most of Greenland apart from moderate precipitation in the NorthWest.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a lower rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
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Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #220 on: June 17, 2019, 06:53:24 PM »
The accelerated Grønland melt was also a topic on wetteronline.de, one of the most famous weather websites in Germany.
https://www.wetteronline.de/klimawandel/arktis-erwaermt-sich-rasant-rekord-eisschmelze-auf-groenland-2019-06-17-gr
Unfortunately the melt area graph was plotted without an y-axis, so that only a relative comparison between 2019, 2016, 2012 and 2007 is possible.

(edit: See also the discussion in the "multimeter sea level rise" thread in the Antarctica section of tis forum)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #221 on: June 18, 2019, 07:42:53 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 17 June 2019

Melt was stronger and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was very low. Hence daily SMB had a very large mass loss increasing again the cumulative -ve SMB anomaly for Greenland.

The weekly update of accumulated SMB is out today. It shows the mass loss anomaly over the entirety of Greenland apart from a narrow coastal fringe in the SE.

a[/b]My prediction that belongs to me is that Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday will see a strong melt, and in the days after melt likely to moderate but perhaps still above average..
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking dry over most of Greenland apart from moderate precipitation in the NorthWest.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a lower rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
[/quote]
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #222 on: June 18, 2019, 02:50:53 PM »
What accounts for the surface mass increases along the western edge of the ice sheet? It can’t be from excess snow because we would see the anomaly extend inland. Could this be capturing the slide of the ice sheet towards the sea.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #223 on: June 18, 2019, 03:17:16 PM »
What accounts for the surface mass increases along the western edge of the ice sheet? It can’t be from excess snow because we would see the anomaly extend inland. Could this be capturing the slide of the ice sheet towards the sea.
Not a clue. You could try asking DMI - including the guy who did that video about probabilities of a major melt this season.

It has been there a long time.(See attached map )
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #224 on: June 18, 2019, 10:54:27 PM »
I'm pretty sure you are right about the blue streaks in the sea of red on the west side of Greenland. They look like areas where glaciers advanced seawards in the freezing season and built up mass at low elevation.

Clearly there was heavy snowfall on the southeast coast and dry weather on the west side. These easterly winds advected warm Atlantic waters towards the tip of Greenland, enhancing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

The enhanced AMOC is one reason Greenland melting has picked up this year.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #225 on: June 19, 2019, 12:12:55 AM »
Quote
What accounts for the surface mass increases along the western edge of the ice sheet? It can’t be from excess snow because we would see the anomaly extend inland. Could this be capturing the slide of the ice sheet towards the sea.
I expect it is due to the steeply rising elevation with any snow fall accruing on the the seaward edge of the ice sheet .
Once the air reaches the tops or downward side snow no longer participates out to the same extent  .
We get the same effect here in NZ with horrendous rain fall totals  along the south western coast of the south island not necessarily translating into high snow fall further  inland in the alps.
Compare Milford sounds rainfall .
https://figure.nz/chart/5IuPMt4ZwD9Sdkf7-vonLRXKT3zJQihCK
With Manapouri a little inland.
https://figure.nz/chart/5IuPMt4ZwD9Sdkf7-WMtvnjdF21QWuJnN


I am no expert someone more qualified may have a better idea.

 

Darvince

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #226 on: June 19, 2019, 05:35:07 AM »
The high elevation immediately on the coast of southeast Greenland as well as anomalous circulation for the past few years driving low after low into that region of the coast are the reason for the strong positive surface mass balance anomaly being in that region, as well as its limited extent to just that region.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #227 on: June 19, 2019, 10:06:17 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 18 June 2019

Melt was strong and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was very low. Hence daily SMB had a very large mass loss increasing again the cumulative -ve SMB anomaly for Greenland.

My prediction that belongs to me is that today (Wednesday) will see a strong melt, and in the days after melt likely to moderate but perhaps still above average..
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking dry over most of Greenland apart from moderate precipitation in the NorthWest.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a lower rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
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johnm33

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #228 on: June 19, 2019, 01:15:15 PM »
What accounts for the surface mass increases along the western edge of the ice sheet? It can’t be from excess snow because we would see the anomaly extend inland. Could this be capturing the slide of the ice sheet towards the sea.
My guess would be winds dropping their moisture content on the eastern side without loosing energy, then becoming warm foehn winds as they drop down the ice sheet warming more and more as they drop causing melt and run off down the slopes.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #229 on: June 20, 2019, 08:15:00 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 19 June 2019

Melt was strong and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was low in most of Greenland except for in the North West, which was enough to reduce daily SMB mass loss to average.

My prediction that belongs to me is that melt, in the days ahead is likely to moderate but perhaps still stay above average..
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking like moderate precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Greenland. If GFS is to be believed, it is possible that a river of rain starting in Western Siberia will cross the entire Arctic, arriving at the northern tip of Greenland in about one weeks time.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a lower rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #230 on: June 21, 2019, 03:56:37 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 20 June 2019

A bit to my surprise melt was even a bit stronger and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was again low in most of Greenland except for in the North West, which was enough to reduce daily SMB mass loss to average. Below average Albedo expanding to higher elevations in the interior.

My prediction that belongs to me is that melt, Friday to Sunday ahead is likely to moderate but perhaps still stay above average.. But perhaps from Monday onwards higher melt gain, even reaching the very far north?
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking like moderate precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Greenland. At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some of this will fall as rain.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a more average rate?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #231 on: June 22, 2019, 03:04:17 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 20 June 2019

Surprised again that melt was even a bit stronger and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was again low in most of Greenland except for in the North West, which was enough to reduce daily SMB mass loss to average.

My prediction that belongs to me is that melt, today and Sunday ahead is likely to moderate but perhaps still stay above average.. But perhaps from Monday onwards higher melt gain, even reaching the very far north?
 
Precipitation in the next week is looking like moderate precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Western Greenland. At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some of this is likely to fall as rain.

SMB mass loss to continue but at a more average rate? Will this mean the 2019 crosses the 2012 red line in the next week?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #232 on: June 23, 2019, 09:34:10 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 22 June 2019

Surprised yet again that melt was even a bit stronger and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation was again low in most of Greenland except for in the central West coast, which was enough to reduce daily SMB mass loss to well below average.

My prediction that belongs to me is that melt, today (Sunday) will be strong and is likely to moderate afterwards but perhaps still stay above average.. But just maybe  higher melt gain, even spreading further over the very far north looking further ahead?
 
Precipitation in the next 7 days is looking like above average precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Western and then Southern Greenland. At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some of this is likely to fall as rain. (last image)

SMB mass loss to continue but at a more average rate or even reverse? It is now looking likely  the SMB graph will show the 2019 line crossing the 2012 red line in about a week.

It makes me speculate that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #233 on: June 25, 2019, 10:18:36 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 24 June 2019

Weekly map of SMB anomaly attached.

Melt remains strong and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. Precipitation happened in much of Greenland which was enough to reverse daily SMB mass loss to mass gain.

See next post for images
Precipitation in the next 7 days is looking like above average precipitation in the NorthWest becoming more general across Western and then Southern Greenland. At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some of this is likely to fall as rain. (see next post for images).
Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with warmth arriving into the far North by Friday. Perhaps melt above average but to not such an extent.

SMB mass loss to continue to reverse into mass gain? It is now looking likely  the SMB graph will show the 2019 line crossing the 2012 red line in a day or two.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #234 on: June 25, 2019, 10:28:20 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 24 June 2019 (contd)

Albedo anomaly map attached. A tale of two halves. The South - Albedo below average, the North -above average.

Temperature map for Friday afternoon shows warmth over much of Northern Greenland.
Also note the extreme warmth over Baffin Island and the CAA.

Precipitation looks above average over most of Greenland (except perhaps in the East). Contrast that with very dry conditions over the CAA and Baffin Bay.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #235 on: June 26, 2019, 09:20:49 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 25 June 2019

Melt remains strong and very much above average, near the maximum for the year. The persistence of this strong melt is unusual?
Precipitation was enough to reverse daily SMB mass loss to zero.

GFS has changed the [/i]Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days. Now looking  much dryer. At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with warmth arriving into the far North by Friday. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average.

SMB mass loss to continue to reverse into mass gain? It is now looking likely  the SMB graph will show the 2019 line crossing the 2012 red line in a day or two.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
[/quote]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #236 on: June 27, 2019, 09:53:46 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 26 June 2019

Melt remains strong and even stronger, very much above average, near the maximum for the year. The persistence of this strong melt is unusual? GIF attached shows history since June 10 (wobbles a bit - not a clue why). Click to start, runs 5 times and then stops.

Precipitation was not enough to reverse daily SMB mass loss to zero, but mass loss less than average.

GFS has changed the [/i]Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days. Now looking  like very dr y in the NW, much wetter in the SE (a more normal pattern). At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with considerable warmth arriving into the far North by Friday. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average.

SMB mass loss to continue to reverse into mass gain or reduced mass loss? It is now looking likely the SMB graph will show the 2019 line crossing the 2012 red line in a day or two.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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be cause

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #237 on: June 27, 2019, 11:44:20 AM »
Headline in this week's Economist .. 'climate change' .. ' Greenland is melting ' .. a very informative piece .. from Eric the red to the 7 metres sea level rise locked in the ice sheet . Talks of NAO , warming , jet stream etc and concludes with Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark predicting a 1mm extra sea-level rise this year in consequence ..

  the way the forecast is heading that could be 2mm (sic) .. b.c.

   
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #238 on: June 28, 2019, 10:01:57 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 27 June 2019

Melt remains strong and even stronger, the maximum for the year. Agian very much on the Western coast. The persistence of this strong melt is unusual?

Precipitation was not enough to reverse daily SMB mass loss to zero, but mass loss less than average. Mostly in the NW and W.

GFS [/i]Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days now looking  like very dry in the NW, much wetter in the SE (a more normal pattern). At least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with considerable warmth arriving into the far North by Friday. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average. Note the SST anomalies in Baffin Bay.

SMB mass loss to continue to reverse into mass gain or reduced mass loss? It is now looking likely the SMB graph will show the 2019 line crossing the 2012 red line in a day or two.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.
[/quote]
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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #239 on: June 28, 2019, 09:12:25 PM »
Would it be wrong to think that we are going to see an acceleration of SMB loss in the next years ? In the years when there is less precipitation, the melt extent is probably not going to get smaller.

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #240 on: June 28, 2019, 09:41:33 PM »
Would it be wrong to think that we are going to see an acceleration of SMB loss in the next years ? In the years when there is less precipitation, the melt extent is probably not going to get smaller.
What you say is correct, but will it happen that way?
An attempt at an answer just gives some +ves and -ves, as usual.

Greenland will get warmer, so more melt. SMB goes down.
But will this mean more warmer wetter air falling as snow on higher elevations. SMB goes up.
But will rain at lower elevations compromise glaciers so calving increases ? Not much change to Surface Mass Balance (SMB) but Greenland loses mass and loads more ice into the ocean so sea level rises more quickly.

AbruptSLR posted an abstract about what might have happened a few k years ago.

Quote
Our results indicate that Holocene warming coincided with elevated precipitation, without which modeled retreat in the Kangerlussuaq region is more rapid than suggested by observations. Less conclusive is if high temperatures during the HTM were specifically associated with a transient increase in precipitation, as the results depend on the assumed temperature history. The importance of precipitation in controlling ice sheet extent during the Holocene underscores the importance of Arctic sea ice loss and changing precipitation patterns on the future stability of the GrIS.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg208330.html#msg208330

i.e. as usual more questions than answers.
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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #241 on: June 28, 2019, 10:16:11 PM »
Probably more questions than answers. But i would'nt be surprised if we already get a good indication on this one in a relative short periode of time. We will see.

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #242 on: June 28, 2019, 11:10:45 PM »
GRACE data will be the judge, when it resumes at last.

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #243 on: June 29, 2019, 01:41:38 AM »
Dr. MacFerrin posted a couple of informative tweets on this topic today.  @IceSheetMike

Below is the link to the paper he attached:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05002-0


gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #244 on: June 29, 2019, 09:59:59 AM »
Dr. MacFerrin posted a couple of informative tweets on this topic today.  @IceSheetMike

Below is the link to the paper he attached:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05002-0
Thanks for the link
I did not realise the deniers had picked up on SMB. Silly me.

I used to add this quote from DMI to every post on this thread :-
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Unfortunately, on the old site from DMI it also used to say that the calving exceeded surface mass gain by about 200 gigatons per year. Perhaps I need to add the note. I assume some of the denier scum look at this forum from time to time in search of ammunition.
_______________________________
By the way, GRACE-FO is producing data for scientists, but not a simple table of mass change. And they have chucked "ftp", so the tabulated data 2002 to early 2017 from the original GRACE project is no longer available from JPL. Going backwards, not forwards. Ho hum.
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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #245 on: June 29, 2019, 11:35:10 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 28 June 2019

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, the maximum for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, mainly in the East, was not enough to reverse daily SMB mass loss to zero, and mass loss was average.

Outlook - a tale of 2 halves, West and East.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days now looking  like very dry to drought in the West coast and centre, much wetter all the way down the East coast. Much is coming all the way from a warm/hot western Siberia passing over the Atlantic edge of the Arctic sea ice. A bit of rain may come from the south to affect the southern tip of Greenland. GFS says at least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with considerable warmth arriving into the far North by Friday. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase.

SMB mass change a matter of which will prevail, precipitation and melt. But it still looks likely the SMB graph will show the 2019 line continuing to cross the 2012 red line in a day or two.
And what is the prognosis for calving given all this melt and runoff ?

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me (to any denier creeps out there):
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.

« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 12:57:33 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #246 on: June 29, 2019, 02:31:54 PM »
gerontocrat...are the gray shaded areas 1 SD or 2 SD from the mean?

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #247 on: June 29, 2019, 03:48:27 PM »
gerontocrat...are the gray shaded areas 1 SD or 2 SD from the mean?

Neither.

Don't ask me why but  DMI  does this on the SMB graph and the melting graph..

"The light grey band shows differences from year to year. For any calendar day, the band shows the range over the 30 years (in the period 1981-2010), however with the lowest and highest values for each day omitted."

So the amazing stuff e.g. 2012 when nearly all of Greenland was melting for a couple of days - is not there.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #248 on: June 30, 2019, 11:49:38 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 29 June 2019

Almost a word for word repeat of yesterday's post because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, the maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, mainly in the South East, was not strong, and mass loss was above average.

Outlook - a tale of 2 halves, West and East.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days now looking  like very dry to drought in the West coast and centre, some precipitation all the way down the East coast. Much is coming all the way from a warm/hot western Siberia passing over the Atlantic edge of the Arctic sea ice. A bit of rain may come from the south to affect the southern tip of Greenland. GFS says at least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with considerable warmth arriving into the far North. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase.

SMB mass change is a matter of which will prevail, precipitation and melt. But it still looks likely the SMB graph will show the 2019 line continuing to cross the 2012 red line in a day or two.
And what is the prognosis for calving given all this melt and runoff ? Not a lot of news about icebergs in Baffin Bay and iceberg alley to be found.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me (to any denier creeps out there):
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #249 on: June 30, 2019, 01:28:50 PM »
gerontocrat...are the gray shaded areas 1 SD or 2 SD from the mean?

Neither.

Don't ask me why but  DMI  does this on the SMB graph and the melting graph..

"The light grey band shows differences from year to year. For any calendar day, the band shows the range over the 30 years (in the period 1981-2010), however with the lowest and highest values for each day omitted."

So the amazing stuff e.g. 2012 when nearly all of Greenland was melting for a couple of days - is not there.
In reality the shaded area is showing approximately 2SD.