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Shared Humanity

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #300 on: July 07, 2019, 03:45:00 PM »
Most of these melt ponds are partially covered by floating ice.  I've read that some melt ponds do not freeze solid during the winter (which surprised me), but it explains the phenomenon demonstrated here, floating ice on melt ponds on glacial ice.  As a melt pond gets deeper and wider with today's warm temperatures, the floating ice will sever its connection to the shore, and even if 'thick', won't reach the shore of the larger pond.  A possibility is for a melt pond to drain after the surface freezes in the winter, leaving a cave, so that when re-filled, the pond will lift the 'lid' as described just above.

Most of the melt ponds in that image have floating ice. Would suggest that melt ponds not freezing solid is a common occurrence. I remember being surprised by this as well.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #301 on: July 07, 2019, 03:48:10 PM »
Today, tomorrow, and Tuesday look to be worse for the ice sheet before a slight cooldown afterwards. I'd expect the 7th, 8th, and 9th to all have highest mass loss for the year again (maybe approaching -10GT?) before it either stabilizes or declines afterwards.

... And, we still have five or so weeks left which could have another huge melt event like on 12th June. CFS (not very trustworthy) has weeks three thru five being well above average like the coming week.

Albedo is so high along the coast now that heavy melt could continue despite lower temperatures if the skies stay clear.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #302 on: July 07, 2019, 07:56:11 PM »
Most of these melt ponds are partially covered by floating ice.  I've read that some melt ponds do not freeze solid during the winter (which surprised me), but it explains the phenomenon demonstrated here, floating ice on melt ponds on glacial ice.  As a melt pond gets deeper and wider with today's warm temperatures, the floating ice will sever its connection to the shore, and even if 'thick', won't reach the shore of the larger pond.  A possibility is for a melt pond to drain after the surface freezes in the winter, leaving a cave, so that when re-filled, the pond will lift the 'lid' as described just above.

Most of the melt ponds in that image have floating ice. Would suggest that melt ponds not freezing solid is a common occurrence. I remember being surprised by this as well.

A deep pool with the ice around the pool at 0°C. It can only lose energy from the top surface. Give that a nice cover of insulating snow. It does make sense when you think about it, but it is still really surprising. Also it would be terrifying to walk across an area of snow covered melt ponds!

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #303 on: July 08, 2019, 07:58:46 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 7 July 2019

No, I am not being lazy, honest. The words are the same because the story is the same because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was almost zero again , and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of more normal temperatures over Greenland after  a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #304 on: July 08, 2019, 06:01:21 PM »
The other day we were told the grey part of Gerontocrat's (DMI's) first graph shows the 30-year base period's daily melt extremes without the highest and lowest daily data points (and not considering 2012 as 2012 is after the base period ends).

The upper graph of the bottom pair of graphs also shows daily data, but this time daily mass gain/loss.  I presume it also removes the highest and lowest daily data points which might be from different year as in the first graph.  Now, 2019 shows as not being at the extreme.  But what does this mean?  This means to me that there were at least two years with more mass loss during the base period (and therefore not considering 2012's extremes).  Do we know what those years were?

And in the bottom graph showing accumulated mass gain/loss, it would be no problem if a particular pair of years had all the records (one for extreme gain and another for extreme loss), but in reality, some days Year X will hold the record and other days Year Y will hold the record.  I guess they just remove from the graph what ever year's accumulated data for that day was extreme, but keep the running total for when that year is in 2nd place.  [3rd place doesn't show on the graph either, but when it has an extreme day, it can move up to 2nd place (and show) or 1st place (and not show).]  On this graph we currently have 2012 approximately at the 2nd most loss (of base period years), and soon to be well below that mark, with 2019 close behind.

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grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #305 on: July 08, 2019, 06:16:42 PM »
Today and tomorrow is pretty hot in Greenland. Not quite as hot as that event last month but with the melting momentum we already have, and low precipitation, I think it might be a big spike on the graph.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #306 on: July 09, 2019, 05:42:06 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 8 July 2019

Weekly updated of accumulated SMB attached.

No, I am not being lazy, honest, believe me.
The words are the same because the story is the same because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was almost zero again (just a tad in the middle / east) , and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of more normal temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
[/quote]
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #307 on: July 10, 2019, 06:09:23 AM »
I have been out for a few days, moving to a smaller house.   Do any of the reliable models show any improvement in the near future?

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #308 on: July 10, 2019, 07:46:05 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 8 July 2019

No, I am not being lazy, honest, believe me. please.
The words are the same because the story is the same because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was very low, and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of more normal temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
[/quote]
[/quote]
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

BenB

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #309 on: July 10, 2019, 10:56:50 AM »
The Greenland albedo map has been updated, and there are some big changes. Anomalies in the south have in some cases turned positive from strongly negative, while there is now a big negative anomaly in the Humboldt/Petermann area in the north-west.

plg

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #310 on: July 10, 2019, 10:10:35 PM »
Anybody seen this? I was not aware of the Ising model. (relates to melt ponds in general, but I guess it applies to Greenland as well?):
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #311 on: July 11, 2019, 08:49:57 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 10 July 2019

This event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong , almost at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was low, and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 and even 10 days still looking  like very dry to drought over most of Greenland. High pressure stuck over Greenalnd

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

aslan

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #312 on: July 11, 2019, 11:36:12 PM »
Melting is so old fashioned, now Greenland is burning, more trendy ...

https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1149233824171094016

grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #313 on: July 12, 2019, 08:16:48 AM »
NSIDC had a bigger spike the last few days than DMI.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #314 on: July 12, 2019, 12:20:58 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 11 July 2019

This event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong , almost at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was low, and as a result mass loss was greatly above average, but a bit less than the previous day or two.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 10 days still looking  like very dry to drought over most of Greenland.
But in the following 5 days, it looks like a stronger weather system shovels copious quantities of warmth and moisture up Baffin bay, with precipitation - RAIN - all along the West coast.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry, and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________

grixm in the post above notes that NSIDC's "Greenland Today" website shows a higher melt spike. This is usual. They are using a different model but the same definition of what is melt.
The link is http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

But unless there is a good reason to change I will stick with DMI's analysis for the sake of consistency.
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #315 on: July 12, 2019, 08:41:58 PM »
Why do the DMI and the NSIDC melt rates differ so much in detail? Do these institutions use different measures to calculate the melt? And which of the two is better in describing what really happens with the ice sheet?

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #316 on: July 12, 2019, 09:05:34 PM »
Why do the DMI and the NSIDC melt rates differ so much in detail? Do these institutions use different measures to calculate the melt? And which of the two is better in describing what really happens with the ice sheet?

Don't know. I believe the DMI uses a higher resolution  (see the size of the pixels on the NSIDC melt map)

You could e-mail NSIDC. They seem more likely to respond (and or the University of Georgia). I have e-mailed DMI before & got nowhere.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

HapHazard

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #317 on: July 12, 2019, 09:33:10 PM »
This thread is like Groundhog Day.

Amazing. (and not in a good way)

Thanks for all the postings, G.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #318 on: July 13, 2019, 05:27:30 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 12 July 2019

This event has reduced a bit. Temporarily?

Melt remains strong , but has dropped a bit. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was almost non-existent, and as a result mass loss was a bit more than the previous day or two despite a reduction in melt.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry to drought over most of Greenland.
But in the following 5 days, it looks like a stronger weather system shovels copious quantities of warmth and moisture up Baffin bay, with precipitation - RAIN - all along the West coast. This could increase melt.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________

grixm in the post above notes that NSIDC's "Greenland Today" website shows a higher melt spike. This is usual. They are using a different model but the same definition of what is melt.
The link is http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

But unless there is a good reason to change I will stick with DMI's analysis for the sake of consistency.
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #319 on: July 14, 2019, 02:46:04 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 13 July 2019

This event has reduced a bit again. Temporarily?

Melt remains strong , but has dropped a bit more. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was ZERO?, and as a result mass loss was a bit more than the previous day or two despite a reduction in melt.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #320 on: July 15, 2019, 07:42:23 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 13 July 2019

Nothing changed in this post except the date.

This event has reduced a bit again. Temporarily?

Melt remains strong , but has dropped a bit more. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was ZERO?, and as a result mass loss was a bit more than the previous day or two despite a reduction in melt.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #321 on: July 15, 2019, 09:17:45 AM »
So basically we are pretty much at the mean minimum accumulated SMB already, and we're just halfway through the season!

Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #322 on: July 15, 2019, 10:05:42 PM »
Dry, mild and mostly sunny - that's what Wetteronline forecasts for July 15 to July 28 for Narssarsuaq, South Grønland.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #323 on: July 16, 2019, 06:28:21 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 15 July 2019

Nothing changed in this post except the date.

This event has reduced a bit again. Temporarily?

Melt but has dropped to around average. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was almost zero, and as a result despite average melt SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was very much above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days due to low precipitation.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #324 on: July 16, 2019, 07:34:06 PM »
DMI have got around to adding the weekly update of the Accumulated SMB Anomaly.

Dodgy gif attached . it plays thrice & then stops, probably forever.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #325 on: July 16, 2019, 08:02:03 PM »
DMI have got around to adding the weekly update of the Accumulated SMB Anomaly.

Dodgy gif attached . it plays thrice & then stops, probably forever.

Wow! Love it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #326 on: July 17, 2019, 07:56:25 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 15 July 2019

Almost nothing changed in this post except the date.

Melt at a little bit above average. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation, very low, and as a result despite average melt SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was very much above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland, but with increasing chance of moist warm winds from the south into Baffin Bay bringing rain to the West coast.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days due to low precipitation.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #327 on: July 17, 2019, 02:08:47 PM »
Do you have a prediction on when Baffin Bay will melt out?   It is probably in the 2019 Melt thread, haven't looked there yet today....

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #328 on: July 17, 2019, 05:28:55 PM »
Do you have a prediction on when Baffin Bay will melt out?   It is probably in the 2019 Melt thread, haven't looked there yet today....
Only scraps left now, anyway.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #329 on: July 18, 2019, 07:09:34 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 17 July 2019

Not a lot changed in this post except the date (which I remembered to change this time).

Melt at a little bit above average. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation low, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over East f Greenland, but with increasing chance of moist warm winds from the south into Baffin Bay bringing rain and warmth to the West coast.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days due to low precipitation or perhaps rainfall at lower elevations along the West coast..

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #330 on: July 18, 2019, 06:03:37 PM »
Next few days will be hot in Greenland. Will probably see another spike in melt. Some precip too though, so don't know how the SMB will end up.

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #331 on: July 18, 2019, 08:47:24 PM »
I found this article interesting, especially the 2:12 video where they talk about the model results, and show the model progressing through year 2300.   

The screen capture is of the models at year 2300.  The pink areas in the picture represent exposed bedrock from the ice sheet retreat.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2883/study-predicts-more-long-term-sea-level-rise-from-greenland-ice/

philopek

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #332 on: July 18, 2019, 10:27:04 PM »
I found this article interesting, especially the 2:12 video where they talk about the model results, and show the model progressing through year 2300.   

The screen capture is of the models at year 2300.  The pink areas in the picture represent exposed bedrock from the ice sheet retreat.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2883/study-predicts-more-long-term-sea-level-rise-from-greenland-ice/

Great find, thanks.

I'm surprised that they hire from Switzerland, ahh... forgot, he thought to go somewhere where there will still be glaciers in a few years, considering how quickly they retreat in the alps.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #333 on: July 19, 2019, 07:08:39 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 18 July 2019

Not a lot changed in this post except the date (which I remembered to change this time).

Melt at a little bit above average. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation low, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over East Greenland, but with increasing chance of moist warm winds from the south into Baffin Bay bringing rain and warmth to the West coast.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck er Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days due to low precipitation or perhaps rainfall at lower elevations along the West coast..

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #334 on: July 20, 2019, 11:40:49 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 19 July 2019

Melt quite a bit above average. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation in central west coast, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was only just above average.

GFS Precipitation is looking a bit weird. Over the next 2 to 3 days a ltlle atmospheric river comes out of Hudson Bay, crosses Ellesmere Island and Baffin Bay and splats pecipitation on the central West coast. On Monday night it stops, and outlook for the next 5 days and more looking   very dry over all Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe until Monday), and maybe sunny? This should help to maintain melt.

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. The 19th July was a classic demo of how although melt was well above average at the peak of the melting season, a bit of precipitation on just one part of the West coast sent SMB loss back to average.

It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days after Monday due to low precipitation or perhaps rainfall at lower elevations along the West coast..

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 11:56:53 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #335 on: July 20, 2019, 05:53:08 PM »
Any response to my July 8 question?  (or refutation of my interpretation  :) )
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #336 on: July 20, 2019, 08:41:15 PM »
Any response to my July 8 question?  (or refutation of my interpretation  :) )
I don't know.
Why they don't use +1SD & +2SD grey bands is a mystery.

But SMB is a result of melt (-) and precipitation (+) or (-) if rain and the model assumes run-off?
The 2019 data shows clearly that even moderate precipitation can overwhelm melt.
So maybe although 2012 had that huge melt it also had quite a lot of precipitation.

I tried to find some precipitation data  and tried a download from the world bank site https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data

It was supposed to be a .csv file. It killed my spreadsheet and I had to restart the computer.
I am not having a good day.

And DMI are not renowned for replying to requests for info or data.
Some mysteries must remain a mystery unless someone else finds out.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #337 on: July 20, 2019, 09:06:41 PM »
Uh oh, there goes my influence!  :o  Sorry you had a bad day (but it can get better, right?) on my account.  Thanks for looking.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #338 on: July 21, 2019, 12:52:31 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 20 July 2019

Melt approaching a new maximum for the year. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation in central west coast, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was just a bit more above average due to higher melt.

GFS Precipitation is still looking a bit weird. Over the next 2 to 3 days a little atmospheric river comes out of Hudson Bay, crosses Ellesmere Island and Baffin Bay and splats precipitation on the central West coast. On Monday night it stops, and outlook for the next 5 days and more looking   very dry over all Greenland.

Melt. Greenland looks as if it will cool down somewhat from next mid-week, though temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed.. High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep most of Greenland dry (apart from the West coastal fringe until Monday), and maybe sunny? Will melt moderate or stay high?

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. The 19th and 20th July was a classic demo of how although melt was well above average at the peak of the melting season, a bit of precipitation on just one part of the West coast sent SMB loss back to average.

It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days after Monday due to low precipitation or perhaps rainfall at lower elevations along the West coast..

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #339 on: July 21, 2019, 02:40:11 PM »
Regardless how much melting is occurring in Greenland these days, 2012 was worse.  Because of the (presumed related) juxtaposition of 2012 ASI loss with 2012 Greenland ice loss, I'm grateful to this year's 'conservatism', presuming it will have an influence on its ASI neighbor to the north.  It's a 'Thank God for little things,' feeling I carry.
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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #340 on: July 22, 2019, 05:16:53 AM »
When the Antarctic sea-ice was increasing in 2012,2013,2014 one of the contributing factors proposed was that increasing fresh ice meltwater raises the temp at which sea water will freeze.  So a fresh meltwater layer freezes more easily.  So more ice shelf melt means more sea-ice.

At least that was a theory that I read at the time.  So more Greenland melt may actually contribute to more Arctic sea-ice.  Personally, I do not think that the contribution would be significant but the corollary is that less Greenland melt means slightly more saline coastal ocean surface and so a lower melting temp. 
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #341 on: July 22, 2019, 01:40:31 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 21 July 2019

On this day

Melt approached and surpassed the previous maximum for the year. Still predominantly in the West. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitationup  in central west coast, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was only a bit above average despite the higher melt.
_______________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Precipitation outlook changed. North and West to be very dry for the mext week, while precipitation gradually comes in to the south and east

Melt. Greenland looks as if it will cool down somewhat from next mid-week, though temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. 

Temperatures look to be a bit above above average for the next few days.The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed..

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep much of Greenland dry (apart from the coastal fringes?) and maybe sunny? Will melt moderate or stay high?
____________________________________________
SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. The 19th to 21st July was a classic demo of how although melt was well above average at the peak of the melting season, a bit of precipitation on just one part of the West coast sent SMB loss back to average.

It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few daysas precipitation reduces.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #342 on: July 23, 2019, 09:18:47 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 22 July 2019

On this day

Melt yet again approached and surpassed the previous maximum for the year. Still predominantly in the West. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is very unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitationup from the central west, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss was only a bit above average despite the higher melt.
_______________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Precipitation outlook changed. Greenland very dry for the next 5 days.

Melt / Temperatures. Greenland looks as if it will cool down somewhat from next mid-week, though temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, especially in the West.  The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed..

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep much of Greenland dry (apart from the coastal fringes?) and maybe sunny? Will melt moderate or stay high?
____________________________________________
SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. The 19th to 22nd July was a classic demo of how although melt was well above average at the peak of the melting season, a bit of precipitation on just one part of the West coast sent SMB loss back to average.

It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days as precipitation reduces.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #343 on: July 23, 2019, 05:17:54 PM »
Interesting graph of Greenland ice sheet mass loss 2002 to 2017.   Eyeballing the trend, it appears to be very predictable for this time frame.

There should be new data available later this year:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

 

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #344 on: July 23, 2019, 05:36:52 PM »
You must be tired hitting copy+paste.... this thing that we are observing is not changing much....

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #345 on: July 24, 2019, 01:45:42 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 23 July 2019

On this day

Melt High but down a bit. Still predominantly in the West. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is very unusual, as normally we just see short-term spikes.

Precipitation minimal, and as a result SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss substantially above average despite the higher melt.
_______________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Precipitation outlook changed. Greenland North & West very dry for the next 5 days. Some precipitation arriving in the south and on the east coast - partly rain?

Melt / Temperatures. Greenland looks as if it will cool down somewhat from next mid-week, though temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, especially in the West.  The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as the final scraps of sea ice melt out is completed..

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....? This is likely to keep much of Greenland dry (apart from the coastal fringes?) and maybe sunny? Will melt moderate or stay high?
____________________________________________
SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. The 19th to 22nd July was a classic demo of how although melt was well above average at the peak of the melting season, a bit of precipitation on just one part of the West coast sent SMB loss back to average.

It still looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days as precipitation will not be great.

It seems clear (to me at least) that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice). How linked are they? If this melt declines to average will Arctic Sea Ice melt reduce as well (or vice-versa)?
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI
When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #346 on: July 24, 2019, 01:52:52 PM »
You must be tired hitting copy+paste.... this thing that we are observing is not changing much....
And that's the point. What persistent and continual high melt is doing to the Greenland glaciers and calving is a mystery.

GRACE-FO is producing science quality data. This was supposed to include updates to ice-sheet mass changes to give us a clue about calving an glacial melt. But I have seen nothing in a format of use to ordinary folk.

And yes, there are many times I think of reducing posts to just one a week.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Mozi

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #347 on: July 24, 2019, 01:56:52 PM »
I appreciate the daily updates, but you might make the caveats/notes section a weekly occurrence?

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #348 on: July 24, 2019, 01:57:36 PM »
speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year...

I think they are linked. With lack of warming and melting Greenland stays colder and acts as the a center of the polar vortex affecting the weather in the Arctic. If both greenland and arctic experience highs we see what we saw in 2012 and this year. Just a hunch...

peterlvmeng

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #349 on: July 24, 2019, 02:07:33 PM »
speculation (now) hypothesis remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year...

I think they are linked. With lack of warming and melting Greenland stays colder and acts as the a center of the polar vortex affecting the weather in the Arctic. If both greenland and arctic experience highs we see what we saw in 2012 and this year. Just a hunch...

Yeah, much of my concern come from when the arctic sea ice free in summer, what about the Greenland? I think the SST of arctic ocean will dramatically rise because of no sea ice absorbing heat. The Greenland is circled by warm current. So how fast and how many ice cap will disintegrate into the ocean? how fast and how much the sea surface level will rise?