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Csnavywx

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #400 on: July 31, 2019, 08:34:17 PM »
Just some incredible skew-ts. A few others with freeze levels above 4000m.

This is a subtropical airmass. I've found myself saying this a few times over the past couple of years, but this doesn't belong north of the Arctic circle -- virtually ever.

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #401 on: July 31, 2019, 08:38:08 PM »
That means a lot of water runoff

Csnavywx

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #402 on: July 31, 2019, 08:52:29 PM »
That means a lot of water runoff

Probably quite a bit. Would be interesting to see stream gages there.

Some of this I'm sure is just soaking into firn air-space below the (melting) snow layer, where it can do damage later by slowly saturating it, pooling and partially re-freezing on top and forming hard, clear ice layers and slabs. While these big melt events are spectacular, from the research and observations I've seen recently, I'm beginning to think that the real damage is all of the preconditioning these are doing to the pack for future years. A future Greenland will see these happen very frequently and with bigger magnitude, except with little firn space remaining to soak up runoff and little to buffer albedo drops in the spring.

It's going to make 2012 and this year look like "the good old days".

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #403 on: July 31, 2019, 10:03:30 PM »

It's looking VERY blue in NE Greenland

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #404 on: July 31, 2019, 10:06:31 PM »
Just some incredible skew-ts. A few others with freeze levels above 4000m.

This is a subtropical airmass. I've found myself saying this a few times over the past couple of years, but this doesn't belong north of the Arctic circle -- virtually ever.

Thank you for your professional and, therefore, even more terrifying analysis.

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #405 on: July 31, 2019, 10:13:45 PM »
Just some incredible skew-ts. A few others with freeze levels above 4000m.

This is a subtropical airmass. I've found myself saying this a few times over the past couple of years, but this doesn't belong north of the Arctic circle -- virtually ever.
Straight from Africa...

HapHazard

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #406 on: July 31, 2019, 10:25:46 PM »
Than you very much for the professional input Csnavywx
Indeed! I'm always eager to learn here.

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #407 on: August 01, 2019, 03:52:42 AM »
Dr. Robert Rohde is the lead scientist at Berkeley Earth. This is pretty interesting (and worrisome):

Coffee Drinker

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #408 on: August 01, 2019, 05:00:25 AM »
Webcam at Freya Gletscher (alt. 1053 m above sea level) shows 15.2°C today. Of course I do not know whether this T measurement can stand quality standards of meteorology, but it must be pretty warm up there - also visible in even more melt ponds.
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

For comparison the same date in 2016 and 2017. 2018 is missing. I would say we have not yet reached the 2016 melt extend but certainly worse than 2017.

2016
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/2016/08/01/1200

2017
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/2017/08/01/1200

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #409 on: August 01, 2019, 09:36:51 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 31 July 2019

On this day...

Melt a new maximum for the year by a substantial amount.

Precipitation not as high as the last 2 days, all in the SE quadrant, partially counteracting very high melt and as a result
SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss spectacularly above average.
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Melt / Temperatures. are looking much above average for the next few days.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
All of Greenland looking very dry or bone dry. This could mean that SMB loss will be as high as July 30 & July 31 as lower melt more than offset by no precipitation.

It will be interesting to see how much the lower precipitation offsets the lower melt in the SMB gain / loss equation over the next few days.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....
_______________________________________________

Lots of question marks in the posts from the professionals on how the DMI model is dealing with precipitation and melting during this unusual temperature spike. I wonder if the model's parameters can properly deal with events so far outside "normal" limits.
_________________________________________________________________
Most of the time it is very quiet on this thread - but at the moment..........
Mind you, I still say that it is the persistently above average or very much above average melt since June 10 that is more significant for the overall SMB this year than a two / three day event such as this.

My evidence is the melting graph and the SMB graph.
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DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #410 on: August 01, 2019, 11:17:11 AM »
Well, well, the heatwave has a bite...

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #411 on: August 01, 2019, 12:06:31 PM »
Just one month to go to the official end of the 2018-2019 Greenland Snowfall, Melt and SMB year.
Mind you, one of these years (not so far away) the climate is going to tell DMI - What do you know?

So far SMB gain for the year nearly 100 GT less than normal, but not in the same league as 2012.
My guess is for a another 50GT or so of SMB loss to go.

I also attach a gif of July melt maps (most days are there). Click to start, runs 4 times and stops (I think).
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DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #412 on: August 01, 2019, 12:25:32 PM »
Nice

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #413 on: August 01, 2019, 02:50:36 PM »
I think the 50 GT of future melt is a bit low.  I would say between 100 and 125 for the remainder of the year.

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #414 on: August 01, 2019, 02:54:11 PM »
To clarify my last post a bit.  Last daily SMB was 10 GT loss.   The forecast for the next 3-5 days looks like we will be in a similar SMB loss. 

If we lose 10 GT per day for the next 3-5 days, that is 30 - 50 GT, with several weeks left in the season.

If "only" lose 8 GT in the same period, we will lose 24 - 40 GT, again with several weeks left in the season

Yuha

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #415 on: August 01, 2019, 03:06:08 PM »
So far SMB gain for the year nearly 100 GT less than normal, but not in the same league as 2012.
My guess is for a another 50GT or so of SMB loss to go.

To put these numbers into context, the 2012 SMB anomaly of about 330 GT corresponds to a bit under 1 mm of sea level rise.

vox_mundi

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #416 on: August 01, 2019, 11:10:40 PM »
Walloped by Heat Wave, Greenland Sees Massive Ice Melt
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-walloped-greenland-massive-ice.html

- The area of the Greenland ice sheet that is showing indications of melt has been growing daily, and hit a record 56.5% for this year on Wednesday

- More than 10 billion tons (11 billion U.S. tons) of ice was lost to the oceans by surface melt on Wednesday alone, creating a net mass ice loss of some 197 billion tons (217 billion U.S. tons) from Greenland in July

- long-term forecast is for continuing warm and sunny weather in Greenland

- since June 1—roughly the start of the ice-loss season—the Greenland ice sheet has lost 240 gigatons (240 billion metric tons) this year. That compares with 290 gigatons lost overall in the 2012 melt season, which usually goes through the end of August.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #417 on: August 02, 2019, 01:54:28 AM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #418 on: August 02, 2019, 08:15:46 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 01 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a new maximum for the year for a second day.

Precipitation low, as a result
SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss even more spectacularly above average. 11 GT mass loss on this day.
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Melt / Temperatures. are still looking above average for the next few days. Will the current maximum melt be maintained? I suspect a gradual lowering is on the cards.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
All of Greenland looking very dry or bone dry. This should mean that SMB loss will still be high as as lower melt is offset by very low precipitation.

It will be interesting to see how much the lower precipitation offsets the lower melt in the SMB gain / loss equation over the next few days.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....
_______________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Klondike Kat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #419 on: August 02, 2019, 01:06:22 PM »
Wow!  That was a big jump.

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #420 on: August 02, 2019, 01:10:58 PM »
Wow!  That was a big jump.

Hope there is a bottom..

Ajpope85

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #421 on: August 02, 2019, 03:15:14 PM »
A video of meltwater runoff under the Kangerlussiauq bridge.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1157015875276464129

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #422 on: August 02, 2019, 03:27:25 PM »
Wow

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #423 on: August 03, 2019, 02:56:01 AM »
Greenland Ice Sheet Beats All-Time 1-Day Melt Record - Eos

https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record

Sigmetnow

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #424 on: August 03, 2019, 02:58:55 AM »
Quote
In the midst of one of the biggest melt events for the Greenland ice sheet, the ice melt on 1 August 2019 was the highest volume ever recorded in a single day.

Air temperatures rose to 10°C above average in places in Greenland this week and peaked above the freezing point for hours at a time at the ice sheet’s summit more than 3,200 meters above sea level. The months of April, May, June, and July also had higher than average temperatures in Greenland. ...
[/quote]https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record
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petm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #425 on: August 03, 2019, 03:04:55 AM »
If my arithmetic is right, that's approx. equivalent to 50 Niagra Falls' (for a day).

Viggy

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #426 on: August 03, 2019, 03:57:00 AM »
Looks like we are about to lose another 10+ billion tons of water today too ...

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #427 on: August 03, 2019, 04:02:23 AM »
What was the maximum melt extent in 2012?

Renerpho

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #428 on: August 03, 2019, 04:08:02 AM »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #429 on: August 03, 2019, 04:12:03 AM »
Thank you!! 2019 is exceptional 2nd to 2012 in more ways than one...

Renerpho

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #430 on: August 03, 2019, 04:20:04 AM »
This ~4,200 km² piece of ice has resisted the ongoing breakup in that region for quite a while now. The last couple of days have seen that region deteriorate rapidly. I wonder if that piece will stay intact after it becomes loose? My guess is it won't (stay intact), but how quickly will it melt?

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=394342.4,-1124787.2000000002,787558.4,-945331.2000000002&p=arctic&t=2019-08-02-T18%3A00%3A00Z
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #431 on: August 03, 2019, 04:27:05 AM »
The NSIDC chart that Renerpho linked compares the melting extent between 2012 and 2019 over the ice sheet.  The purported record is volume lost which is different, and more important if true. 

AGU’s Eos is usually a pretty reliable source.  However, Ruth Mottram will have the final say based upon the DMI data. 

She knocked off for the weekend about four hours ago saying that her mentions were exploding on Twitter, and implying she needed a break.

We will need to wait and see if she verifies these numbers on Monday.

In any event, it has been a very remarkable few days of melting.   

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #432 on: August 03, 2019, 04:34:07 AM »
This ~4,200 km² piece of ice has resisted the ongoing breakup in that region for quite a while now.

That same piece seems to show up year after year.  It must be caused by some unique bathymetry in that area. But that is sea ice, and not related to the ice sheet melting described in the figures and charts above. 

Renerpho

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #433 on: August 03, 2019, 04:38:34 AM »
The NSIDC chart that Renerpho linked compares the melting extent between 2012 and 2019 over the ice sheet.  The purported record is volume lost which is different, and more important if true.

Yes. I can only give extent (or area, whatever the difference might be in this context), no 3rd dimension. At least it answers DrTskoul's question, I hope. As mentioned in the article, while there have been days of greater melting extent, volume apparently hit a record.
I can't find a similar resource (graph, table, ...) for volume. If anyone has that data in whatever form, I'd very much like to see it!

That same piece seems to show up year after year.  It must be caused by some unique bathymetry in that area. But that is sea ice, and not related to the ice sheet melting described in the figures and charts above.
Yes, my question was only loosely related, sorry. I will scroll through Worldview of recent years to see what happened to it before.  :)

EDIT: It stays in place year after year. If it melts then it melts in place. The bathymetric map shows the sea is shallow in that region. I guess it is attached to the sea floor.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 04:46:04 AM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #434 on: August 03, 2019, 04:44:04 AM »
I asked about extent, the easy part. Volume is another story ..

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #435 on: August 03, 2019, 04:47:57 AM »
I certainly did not mean to be rude Renerpho, and I am sorry if it came off that way. 

Your post was on point and answers DrTskoul’s question.  I was just pointing out the possible new record is something different. 

Dr. Mottram is a scientist with DMI.  She is pretty much the most authoritative figure on Greenland ice sheet melt of anyone who regularly comments on it.  I would accept DMI’s data over NSIDC when it comes to the Greenland ice sheet. 

I’m not sure how they calculate volume, but they have a way.  I don’t doubt the information in the article from AGU Eos, but I will wait until it is verified from other scientists. 

Renerpho

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #436 on: August 03, 2019, 04:53:38 AM »
I certainly did not mean to be rude Renerpho, and I am sorry if it came off that way.
No offense taken, Rod!  :)

I am quite sure their data is accurate. I am still curious about, for example, what the old record was, when it was established, etc. But it's not like this was super important to me, so unless you know where I get it, don't spend too much time on finding it.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #437 on: August 03, 2019, 07:44:59 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 02 August 2019

On this day...

Melt slightly below yesterday's new maximum for the year at nearly 60% of land area.

Precipitation almost zero, and as a result

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) still spectacularly above average. About 10 GT mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Melt / Temperatures. are still looking above average for the next few days. I suspect a gradual lowering of daily melt is on the cards.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
All of Greenland still looking very dry or bone dry. This should mean that SMB loss will still be high as as lower melt is offset by very low precipitation.

It will be interesting to see how much the lower precipitation offsets the lower melt in the SMB gain / loss equation over the next few days.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI
Quote
The term surface mass balance SMB is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Simon

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #438 on: August 03, 2019, 09:08:42 AM »
Although the vast ice sheet actually gains ice over the year, there is a net loss of ice mass through an accelerating glacier loss as demonstrated by this thorough review.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/19/9239

Greenland has been causing a sea level rise of 0.3mm a year. I just wonder what this value is going to increase to in the coming decades?


oren

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #439 on: August 03, 2019, 10:32:07 AM »
If my arithmetic is right, that's approx. equivalent to 50 Niagra Falls' (for a day).
12.5 billion tons per day, a ton is a cubic meter, a day is 24x60x60 seconds, so this comes out to an amazing 145,000 cubic meters/second, or about 0.145 Sverdrup, equivalent to 8.5 Mississippi rivers, or about 0.7 Amazon rivers. These are very serious numbers.
I should point out SMB is not directly comparable to river discharge, as it includes precipitation on the one hand and evaporation/sublimation on the other. But I think both of these figures were much smaller than meltwater runoff on this specific day.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #440 on: August 03, 2019, 02:09:21 PM »
Although the vast ice sheet actually gains ice over the year, there is a net loss of ice mass through an accelerating glacier loss as demonstrated by this thorough review.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/19/9239

Greenland has been causing a sea level rise of 0.3mm a year. I just wonder what this value is going to increase to in the coming decades?

The thing I would be worrying about is the acceleration of melt trends. So many of the metrics tracking AGW and its impacts behave this way. Not sure I am seeing it with Greenland mass loss here although the chart tracks far too few years to simply eyeball it. Does anyone measure the growth rate in Greenland mass loss?

J Cartmill

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #442 on: August 03, 2019, 06:23:47 PM »
Having spent part of my youth on the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) during the early 80'ies, I can certainly testify that this year's melt is extra-ordinary. Had we known at that time that melt lakes, crevasses, moulins and the like were as ubiquitous as we see today, we would never have been allowed anywhere near those local danger zones.

In my deepest soul, I am genuinely shocked that this kind of media/Twitter hysteria goes on for days without even the slightest bit of reflection. I know that out there, we have seasoned observers of Arctic reality 10, 20, even 60 years ago. None of those guys are allowed to chip in at the current pace of posting. It's about time to reflect a bit and consider what we have let ourselves into.

Please cool down for a minute and let the old folks contribute. This might add some perspective instead of more details, numbers and noise.

Cheers P


gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #443 on: August 03, 2019, 07:07:08 PM »
Does anyone measure the growth rate in Greenland mass loss?
Many many people do.

Google "GRACE-FO" & search "GRACE-FO" on this forum

GRACE-FO Data just started up again (up to May 2019). See example showing big variation between basins.

Will no doubt be part of Greenland Melt year-end (end is Aug 31 i.e. this month) reports later this yr (NSIDC & DMI).
GRACE-FO monthly data should be out up to August by end September.

But by golly I wish we had access to DMI monthly temp and precipitation data by drainage basins and SMB by drainage basins. That would be an impressive data set to analyse.

I've only got precip and temp data by months to end 2016 for all Greenland- from World Bank of all places.
________________________________________________
And now a whinge.
I have posted all I know about this on this thread, What's New in Greenland, and in Satellite News for months. Sometimes I think, "Why bloody bother".
__________________________________________
ps:
I agree with P-maker, quote below.
The world  -and a good few scientists - have leapt upon this three day shocker, and is already looking for the next big thing. I have been going on and on for what seems ages about it is the length of this event - since June 10th - that matters most.

I agree with P-maker, quote below, who expresses my similar feelings much better than I can
Quote
In my deepest soul, I am genuinely shocked that this kind of media/Twitter hysteria goes on for days without even the slightest bit of reflection. I know that out there, we have seasoned observers of Arctic reality 10, 20, even 60 years ago. None of those guys are allowed to chip in at the current pace of posting. It's about time to reflect a bit and consider what we have let ourselves into.

Please cool down for a minute and let the old folks contribute. This might add some perspective instead of more details, numbers and noise.

Cheers P
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #444 on: August 03, 2019, 07:19:12 PM »
Shock news and sound bytes at social media. Isn't the mode of news information of the current generation? If it ain't on Twitter and Instagram it ain't news?

Keep up the good work gero and thanks for the comments P
« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 12:12:35 AM by DrTskoul »

vox_mundi

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #445 on: August 03, 2019, 11:48:22 PM »
This Satellite Image Shows Everything Wrong With Greenland Right Now
https://earther.gizmodo.com/this-satellite-image-shows-everything-wrong-with-greenl-1836919989

If you could sum up climate change’s impact on the Arctic in one image, you’d be hard pressed to find something better than this satellite view, which shows the meltdown of one of the largest stores of ice on Earth while a wildfire rages in the distance.




A portion of the Greenland ice sheet with four images blended from July 15-30. The white snow melts exposing blue ice underneath.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #446 on: August 04, 2019, 06:36:21 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 03 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a bit below yesterday's..

Precipitation almost zero, and as a result

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss still double the average. About 8 GT mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Melt / Temperatures. are still looking above average for the next few days. I suspect a gradual lowering of daily melt will continue.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
All of Greenland still looking very dry or bone dry. This should mean that SMB loss will still be well above average as lower melt is offset by very low precipitation.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #447 on: August 04, 2019, 04:18:39 PM »
Mass loss is less than prior days. The twitterverse will quiet and Greenland melt will cease to entertain 21st century humanity.

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #448 on: August 05, 2019, 02:38:26 AM »
Dr. Mottram has spoken and she did not dispute the volume numbers. I expect that this week we will get more info from her and Professor Box about what they think it means. 

I am surprised by the pushback on information from Twitter.  That is where the scientists speak.

It is nice that Gerontocrat copies and pastes the DMI graphs here each day, but what the scientists in charge of interpreting that data say is much more important than his speculation. 

This was apparent when Shared Humanity indicated that he did not understand they track mass gain.  That feature is inherent in the charts Gerontocrat posts. 

If you guys don’t want any more info from Twitter, then I will stop posting it.   But you are about 10 years behind technology if you don’t understand how important that platform is. 

oren

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #449 on: August 05, 2019, 02:47:50 AM »
A. I prefer info from any source I can get it, be it twitter or DMI, as long as it is accurate
B. I am happy that there is a mini-twitterstorm over Greenland melt. Even if it dies down after a few days, many people will remember it.