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DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #450 on: August 05, 2019, 03:04:41 AM »
I don’t like sound bites, too easy. Prefer deep analysis, cannot do with tweets...

petm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #451 on: August 05, 2019, 03:05:56 AM »
Please do keep posting Twitter. Yes, it has a lot of crap on it (like everything these days and probably always), but it has also become a standard method of scientific communication, perfectly suited for real-time occurrences including natural events (Greenland melt) and new publications, etc (announcements about Greenland melt). Perhaps not everyone has yet become aware of its utility.

Frivolousz21

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #452 on: August 05, 2019, 04:23:23 AM »
Please post Umizoomi new sources as you guys can anything from Twitter that comes from professor box is invaluable
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #453 on: August 05, 2019, 04:27:30 AM »
Jason Box back in May: How we already know 2019 will be a big melt year for Greenland

https://t.co/s5mjmqxmf3

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #454 on: August 05, 2019, 04:40:48 AM »
Friv is just being a smart ass.  His forecasts never turn out like he thinks they will, and he does not like to be confronted with real scientists.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #455 on: August 05, 2019, 11:57:29 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 04 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a bit below yesterday's and still miles above average..

Precipitation almost zero, and as a result

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss still double the average. About 7 GT mass loss from melting on this day.

EDIT
Albedo massive change in July - little gif of albedo anomalies attached.  Plays forever.
Remember - red & yellow = darker, blue = lighter (i.e. red & yellow means more melt potential).
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Melt / Temperatures. are still looking above average for the next few days but +ve temp anomalies declining and after day 5 may be -ve over most of Greenland.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Gradual increase in precipitation though still looking low. This should mean that SMB loss will still be above average as lowering melt is offset by low precipitation.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until the cows come home**....
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
___________________________________________________________
** scientific input
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 02:44:58 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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be cause

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #456 on: August 05, 2019, 01:23:15 PM »
pretty rotten gif .. only half greenland and stopped playing before I find what I'm watching . Limiting the number of times your gifs play is really maddening .. by the time I've found out what I'm watching it is often too late .. having to scroll to find title or index or whatever and the gif is done .. b.c.

 were not all nimble fingered youngsters you know .. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #457 on: August 05, 2019, 02:48:28 PM »
pretty rotten gif .. only half greenland and stopped playing before I find what I'm watching . Limiting the number of times your gifs play is really maddening .. by the time I've found out what I'm watching it is often too late .. having to scroll to find title or index or whatever and the gif is done .. b.c.

 were not all nimble fingered youngsters you know .. :)
I did the three score and ten a while ago.
I think my lap-top did as well.
It went all weird and had to close all down & restart. It does that when too many big spreadsheets and other stuff is in memory. Like me, it easily gets confused.

GIF changed, plays forever with all of of Greenland visible.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #458 on: August 05, 2019, 03:44:07 PM »
Thanks G. In all honesty, I could never figure out the quirk with limiting the number of repetitions. I often find myself staring at a gif several times in a row, focusing each time on a different part. This is even more so when I use my phone. If it stops after a few, I usually need to reload it again, wasting bandwidth and energy.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #459 on: August 05, 2019, 03:47:16 PM »
Thanks G. In all honesty, I could never figure out the quirk with limiting the number of repetitions. I often find myself staring at a gif several times in a row, focusing each time on a different part. This is even more so when I use my phone. If it stops after a few, I usually need to reload it again, wasting bandwidth and energy.
It was all because some of the ASIF members have really lousy connections and even lousier limits on download limits.

So one of those things when some are going to be hacked off no matter what you do.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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grixm

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #460 on: August 05, 2019, 04:05:49 PM »
Thanks G. In all honesty, I could never figure out the quirk with limiting the number of repetitions. I often find myself staring at a gif several times in a row, focusing each time on a different part. This is even more so when I use my phone. If it stops after a few, I usually need to reload it again, wasting bandwidth and energy.
It was all because some of the ASIF members have really lousy connections and even lousier limits on download limits.

So one of those things when some are going to be hacked off no matter what you do.

But how does limiting the number of playbacks help with this? After you've watched the animation one time, you don't have to download it again to watch it again, it can loop forever for free.

oren

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #461 on: August 05, 2019, 04:11:15 PM »
But how does limiting the number of playbacks help with this? After you've watched the animation one time, you don't have to download it again to watch it again, it can loop forever for free.
Yes. That's what I meant.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #462 on: August 06, 2019, 08:57:44 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 05 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a bit below yesterday's. Merely exceptionally high..

Precipitation almost zero, and as a result

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss still double the average. About 7 GT mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook For once, I am reckless and say for the next 10 days. Why - High Pressure - image attached. This high has been sitting there since I do not know when and looks solid as a rock. This implies, stable, i.e  boring, weather as Greenland's summer dies and transits its incredibly short Autumn towards winter.

Melt / Temperatures. are still looking above average for the next few days as temperatures decline gradually until most of Greenland gets - cold.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Gradual increase in precipitation though still looking low. This should mean that SMB loss will still be above average while melt gradually reduces.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until the cows come home**....
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
___________________________________________________________
** scientific input
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #463 on: August 07, 2019, 09:13:41 AM »
All quiet on the Greenland melting season thread..

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 06 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a bit below yesterday's. Merely much above average..

Precipitation low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss less than yesterday but double the average. About 6 GT mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
Melt / Temperatures. a bit above average for the next few days while declining gradually until most of Greenland gets - cold.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking low.

This should mean that SMB loss though reducing will still be above average while melt gradually reduces.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until ....?
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #464 on: August 08, 2019, 06:31:19 AM »
Temperatures have come down, and we are talking again about albedo.  These are the current maps.  Posted about 12 hours ago. 
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 06:37:45 AM by Rod »

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #465 on: August 08, 2019, 06:34:11 AM »
There is a new data product Dr. Mottram seems excited about that should be out soon.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #466 on: August 08, 2019, 06:55:14 AM »
The ice cap (I think that's what this is?) north of the 79N glacier is melting pretty strongly. This is from a few days ago. Note the melt water accumulating around the edges as well as flowing into the channels. These all eventually drain into a big lake.

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #467 on: August 08, 2019, 07:25:03 AM »
The ice cap (I think that's what this is?) north of the 79N glacier is melting pretty strongly. This is from a few days ago. Note the melt water accumulating around the edges as well as flowing into the channels. These all eventually drain into a big lake.

Is the whole thing a transparent ice cube ??

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #468 on: August 08, 2019, 08:52:29 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 07 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a tiny bit below yesterday's. Merely much above average..

Precipitation low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss less than yesterday but double the average. Only 5,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
Melt / Temperatures. a bit above average for the next few days while declining gradually until eventually most of Greenland gets - cold.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking low.

This should mean that SMB loss though reducing will still be above average while melt gradually reduces.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until ....?

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer ends, the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #469 on: August 08, 2019, 08:55:09 AM »
The ice cap (I think that's what this is?) north of the 79N glacier is melting pretty strongly. This is from a few days ago. Note the melt water accumulating around the edges as well as flowing into the channels. These all eventually drain into a big lake.

Is the whole thing a transparent ice cube ??
Only need a very large glass and a very big bottle of gin?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #470 on: August 08, 2019, 11:42:50 AM »
Hear hear...

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #471 on: August 08, 2019, 06:57:04 PM »
Hear hear...

Hmm, I think we better start taking our gin in tea, I don't think the ice is going to be there much longer. Is that too quintessentially British?

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #472 on: August 08, 2019, 07:39:56 PM »
Hear hear...

Hmm, I think we better start taking our gin in tea, I don't think the ice is going to be there much longer. Is that too quintessentially British?

Ha... :) I need my tonic

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #473 on: August 09, 2019, 07:33:01 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 07 August 2019

On this day...

Melt below yesterday's. Merely above average..

Precipitation low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss less than yesterday but double the average. Only 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
Melt / Temperatures. a bit above average for the next few days while declining gradually until eventually most of Greenland gets - cold.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish.

This should mean that SMB loss though reducing will still be above average while melt gradually reduces.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until ....?

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer ends, the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NotaDenier

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #474 on: August 09, 2019, 01:05:18 PM »
The isolated blues on this map near the edges of the GIS, could they be related to the glaciers slumping toward the sea? Meaning an area close to the edge of the ice sheet is suddenly slightly higher because the glacier sped up?

Why else the isolated blues? The big mass of blue down in the SE corner makes sense.

AndyW

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #475 on: August 09, 2019, 03:16:17 PM »
Is there a multiyear version of this graph  available ?



It's a big melt season this year, but last two years have been quite the reverse.  It's the equivalent of the the Arctic graphs showing 2012 and this year and the medium.

Andy

mabarnes

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #476 on: August 09, 2019, 04:26:40 PM »
The isolated blues on this map near the edges of the GIS, could they be related to the glaciers slumping toward the sea? Meaning an area close to the edge of the ice sheet is suddenly slightly higher because the glacier sped up?

Why else the isolated blues? The big mass of blue down in the SE corner makes sense.

Surface Mass Balance (SMB) = gains - losses ... from the surface.  Basically precipitation gains minus sublimation/ablation losses.  It doesn't include base melt losses or glacial calving losses.

The blue is in those area due to most of the precip hitting the east coast of Greenland this season.  If you look at the Aug 8 (not cumulative) map you can see the blue addition of the latest systems' precipitation in the daily map G posted right before yours.

Attached is is the 3 hour precip from right now (8:20 EST 8/9) showing the remnants of the systems, but you get the idea.  Still, the 8/8 map is red on the SE coast as the precip may have been rain at coastal altitudes, adding to the melt, or if snow, simply was falling on top of still melting melting - didn't "stick" as we used to say as kids.

Hope this helps.  I'm a lurker/newbie mahself so any corrections please and thanks.

Here's a good glossary on the topic:  https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000192525
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 04:36:24 PM by mabarnes »

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #477 on: August 10, 2019, 03:36:07 AM »
Greenland is on track to lose most ice on record this year and has already shed 250 billion tons

From Washingtonpost.com

Quote
All told, a computer model that tracks ice mass gained or lost by snowfall and snow and ice melt, but does not include the ice mass lost by glaciers which terminate in the ocean waters, found that the ice sheet lost a total of about 55 billion tons through melt runoff during the extreme melt event, which was about 40 billion tons more than the 1981 to 2010 average for the same time period, NSIDC reported.

“The glacier flow system also contributes to loss, and will likely add another 60 to 100 billion tons of loss [as icebergs],” said Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the University of Colorado.

According to Scambos, 2012 eventually reached 300 billion tons of surface ice mass loss from Greenland and 2019 may exceed that.

Rod

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #478 on: August 10, 2019, 05:59:37 AM »
It is important to remember that SMB is always positive (at least so far).   The losses from the Greenland ice sheet come from other processes such as glacier calving. 

This might change moving forward, but so far, all the ice lost to surface melting in the summer is gained back by snow accumulation. 


gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #479 on: August 10, 2019, 07:57:59 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 09 August 2019

On this day...

Melt below yesterday's. Merely above average..

Precipitation low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss same as yesterday & double the average. Only 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
Melt / Temperatures. a bit above average for the next few days while declining gradually until eventually most of Greenland gets - cold.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish.

This should mean that SMB loss though reducing will still be above average while melt gradually reduces.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until ....?

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer ends, the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
__________________________________________________________________
Quote
ps from me: Calving and melt from by sea water on marine-terminating glaciers exceeds the annual overall SMB gain. It is the GRACE-FO satellite that is giving the data to give the overall net Greenland mass loss. The data up to the end of August 2019 might be produced sometime in late September. (Fingers crossed)
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #480 on: August 10, 2019, 08:27:42 AM »
Is there a multiyear version of this graph  available ?

Andy
Nope,

BUT you reminded me to follow up a couple of links, and....

There is an open access paper - gold dust, that came out in May 2019:-

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/19/9239
Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018

Attached is a graph EDIT - 2 MORE GRAPHS

I have also downloaded the spreadsheet but that is going to take a bit of time to figure out.

There are also annual reports from e.g.
http://sciencenordic.com/how-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-2018

____________________________________________________________
ps: PNAS published a similar study on Antarctica
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095
Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017
« Last Edit: August 10, 2019, 08:46:08 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #481 on: August 11, 2019, 12:04:50 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 10 August 2019

On this day...

Melt below yesterday's. Only just above average..

Precipitation very low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss same as yesterday & double the average. 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
Melt / Temperatures. Southern  Eastern Greenland gets cold. North & West still above average.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish or very dry.

This should mean that though melt is reducing  SMB mass losswill still be above average.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until ....?

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer ends, the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
__________________________________________________________________
Quote
ps from me: Calving and melt from by relatively warm sea water on marine-terminating glaciers exceeds the annual overall SMB gain. It is the GRACE-FO satellite that is giving the data to give the overall net Greenland mass loss. The data up to the end of August 2019 might be produced sometime in late September. (Fingers crossed)
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

johnm33

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #482 on: August 11, 2019, 12:21:17 PM »
A look at freshwater discharge. 30 days to 10:08 HYCOM

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #483 on: August 11, 2019, 12:21:42 PM »
The attached images show the GFS weather 5 day forecast for Greenland & the surrounding area.

This high pressure and low precipitation (combined with high temperatures) weather pattern seems to have dominated just about the whole summer since mid-June.

But after 5 days just a possibility of some changes around the edges, following the recent change to below average temperatures in Southern Greenland...

Autumn has arrived?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #484 on: August 11, 2019, 12:25:11 PM »
A look at freshwater discharge. 30 days to 10:08 HYCOM
I wonder how it compares with previous years? It surely includes water loss from glaciers at the ocean edge so will be even greater than the surface melt shown in the SMB.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #485 on: August 12, 2019, 08:24:18 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 11 August 2019

On this day... almost no change again

Melt a bit below yesterday's. Only a tiny bit above average..

Precipitation very low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss same as yesterday & double the average. 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day.

Albedo anomaly very high, i.e. darker surface. Any insolation, though reducing quickly, more likely to cause melt.
______________________________________________________
5 day outlook

Melt / Temperatures. Southern & Eastern Greenland cold. North & West still above average.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish or very dry.

This should mean that though melt is reducing  SMB mass loss will still be above average.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - until ....?

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer ends, the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
__________________________________________________________________
Quote
ps from me: Calving and melt from by relatively warm sea water on marine-terminating glaciers exceeds the annual overall SMB gain. It is the GRACE-FO satellite that is giving the data to give the overall net Greenland mass loss. The data up to the end of August 2019 might be produced sometime in late September. (Fingers crossed)
___________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #486 on: August 12, 2019, 10:21:05 PM »
Found this over at:

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Shows that 2019 is tracking nearly in step with 2012 for this metric.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #487 on: August 13, 2019, 12:05:39 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 12 August 2019

On this day
... the end-of-season downward gentle slope continues

Melt a bit below yesterday's. At average..

Precipitation low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss a bit lower than yesterday & still double the average. Just about 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day.
______________________________________________________
5 day outlook

Melt / Temperatures. Southern & Eastern Greenland cold. North & West still above average.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish or very dry.

This should mean that though melt is reducing  SMB mass loss will still be above average.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - but perhaps reducing its size after a few days.

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer ends, the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
__________________________________________________________________
Quote
ps from me: Calving and melt from by relatively warm sea water on marine-terminating glaciers exceeds the annual overall SMB gain. It is the GRACE-FO satellite that is giving the data to give the overall net Greenland mass loss. The data up to the end of August 2019 might be produced sometime in late September. (Fingers crossed)
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #488 on: August 13, 2019, 12:12:02 PM »
Found this over at:

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Shows that 2019 is tracking nearly in step with 2012 for this metric.

Different model than DMI - the DMI model showing very high SMB mass loss but still much less than 2012.

Which do I believe?
- Neither.

What do I believe?
- That SMB mass loss was exceptionally high in 2019.
- If I was forced to put a figure on it, I would simply average the 2 models.

What is needed?
- more weather stations on Greenland to test models against field observations.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #489 on: August 13, 2019, 03:01:10 PM »
I thought it was interesting that a different model shows a ~150 GT difference from the other....

GoodeWeather

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #490 on: August 13, 2019, 03:46:26 PM »
I thought it was interesting that a different model shows a ~150 GT difference from the other....

Not sure if NSIDC uses total mass or just surface mass, as DMI o ly calculates SMB which could be the difference we are looking at.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #491 on: August 13, 2019, 04:17:35 PM »
I thought it was interesting that a different model shows a ~150 GT difference from the other....

Not sure if NSIDC uses total mass or just surface mass, as DMI o ly calculates SMB which could be the difference we are looking at.
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Quote
"Our colleague, Xavier Fettweis at the Université of Liège, Belgium, developed a Greenland ice and climate model that provides estimates of mass gained or lost by snowfall and melt (not including ice lost from the outflow of glaciers) (Figure 3a). "

The NSIDC graph is SMB, i.e. excluding calving and loss by melting by sea water of marine terminating glaciers.

The NSIDc shows a loss of about 275 billion tons greater than average, the DMI model more like 175 billion tons greater than the average. Amazingly enough, both models are using a 1981-2010 baseline.
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FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #492 on: August 13, 2019, 10:27:30 PM »
As long as the individual models are consistent, it gives us a trend line.

I personally think the model including outflow from glaciers is more indicative of the real world.   Potato, potato...

modified to clarify ...."outflow from" glaciers...

DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #493 on: August 13, 2019, 10:29:34 PM »
It includes glaciers...

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #494 on: August 14, 2019, 04:17:48 PM »
It includes glaciers...

? ? ?
"Our colleague, Xavier Fettweis at the Université of Liège, Belgium, developed a Greenland ice and climate model that provides estimates of mass gained or lost by snowfall and melt (not including ice lost from the outflow of glaciers) (Figure 3a). "
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #495 on: August 14, 2019, 04:23:28 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 13 August 2019

On this day
... the end-of-season downward gentle slope continues

Melt a bit below yesterday's. At average..

Precipitation low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss a bit lower than yesterday & still double the average. A bit less than 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day, but still nearly 2 gt more than average.
______________________________________________________
5 day outlook

Melt / Temperatures. Southern & Eastern Greenland cold. A part of the North & West still a bit above average.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish or very dry.

This should mean that though melt is reducing, SMB mass loss will still be above average.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - but certainly looks like much lower extent and intensity.

The melting season gently fades into history as the Greenland summer has ended(?), the oh so short Autumn starts and winter arrives with thump - very soon (?)
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
__________________________________________________________________
Quote
ps from me: Calving and melt from by relatively warm sea water on marine-terminating glaciers exceeds the annual overall SMB gain. It is the GRACE-FO satellite that is giving the data to give the overall net Greenland mass loss. The data up to the end of August 2019 might be produced sometime in late September. (Fingers crossed)
___________________________________________________________
[/quote]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #496 on: August 14, 2019, 10:15:27 PM »
Looks like Fram export may start again...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #497 on: August 15, 2019, 09:43:40 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 14 August 2019

On this day
... the end-of-season downward gentle slope continues

Melt a bit below yesterday's. At just below average..

Precipitation very low, and as a result ......

SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss the same yesterday & still double the average. A bit less than 4,000 million tons mass loss from melting on this day, but still nearly 2 gt more than average.
______________________________________________________
5 day outlook

Melt / Temperatures. Southern & Eastern Greenland cold. A part of the North & West still a bit above average.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
Still looking lowish or very dry. But as the Greenland High shrinks and weakens signs of precipitation at both North and South fringes.

This should mean that though melt is reducing, SMB mass loss might still be above average for a few days more.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland - but certainly looks like continuing to shrink and reduce in pressure.

The melting season now quickens its fade into history as the Greenland summer has ended, the oh so short Autumn has started and winter arrives with thump - very soon - unless something weird happens.
_______________________________________________
Quote from DMI (because every so often people get confused...
Quote
The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.
__________________________________________________________________
Quote
ps from me: Calving and melt from by relatively warm sea water on marine-terminating glaciers exceeds the annual overall SMB gain. It is the GRACE-FO satellite that is giving the data to give the overall net Greenland mass loss. The data up to the end of August 2019 might be produced sometime in late September. (Fingers crossed)
___________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #498 on: August 15, 2019, 07:47:17 PM »
A few weeks ago (during heat wave) there was a prediction of an additional 50 GT of melt by the end of melt season.    I thought that seems low and predicted 100 to 125 GT.   How many GT have we lost since those posts?

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« Reply #499 on: August 15, 2019, 09:25:22 PM »
A few weeks ago (during heat wave) there was a prediction of an additional 50 GT of melt by the end of melt season.    I thought that seems low and predicted 100 to 125 GT.   How many GT have we lost since those posts?
It was on Aug 1 I said maybe 50GT and you said 100-125 GT
It looks like you were more right than me.

Another 10-20GT to go?

Graph with red lines on attached.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)