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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 5515 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2020, 07:38:15 PM »
What goes very impressively up may go as equally impressively down.
So far not quite so impressively down...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #51 on: November 04, 2020, 02:45:48 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

If anything, Hudson ice is actually late this year, so I'll take the opposite side of the bet. UH AMSR2 shows virtually zero ice area where in quite a few previous years it reached 50k-100k km2.
I assume you plan to revisit this forecast when it comes due?

bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #52 on: November 04, 2020, 03:15:36 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

If anything, Hudson ice is actually late this year, so I'll take the opposite side of the bet. UH AMSR2 shows virtually zero ice area where in quite a few previous years it reached 50k-100k km2.
I assume you plan to revisit this forecast when it comes due?
The Canucks are more accurate there has been lots of cloud interference /



It is going to be advancing rapidly next few days it is not obvious yet but wait til end of month and compare, maybe I'm wrong, we shall see.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #53 on: November 04, 2020, 03:23:48 PM »
The meteo people tell us that Al Nina years are associated with a cold Canada.
A recent science paper claims an association between low Bering Sea winter ice and a cold Canada.
Environment Canada has a forecast of a pretty cold November for much of Canada

An early freeze of Hudson Bay by a few days  is very possible, but so what? Hudson Bay has pretty much ignored AGW so far.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #54 on: November 04, 2020, 06:02:52 PM »
Snow extent is crashing, and a continued warm week ahead is forecasted for North America and Eastern Europe/Western Siberia.  NH Snow extent anomaly is already -1.8 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing, and bound to crash further.  That's some additional albedo feedback right there that should postpone the onset of deep winter cold for much of the arctic. 

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #55 on: November 06, 2020, 04:37:05 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/5/2020) -2.392 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.  It's a bit surprising considering all the open water in the Arctic seas, but it's just too warm in North America and Eastern Europe / Western Siberia for precipitation to fall as snow quite yet. 

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #56 on: November 07, 2020, 04:50:45 PM »
A little bit of a dip today back to "only" a -2.1 million km^2 anomaly for NH snow cover extent.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2020, 05:33:38 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/7/2020) -2.987 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing. 

Weather is not the same as climate, but if re-glaciation in the northern hemisphere is indeed going to happen as per bbr's predictions (doubtful, in my opinion), it looks like it won't be a straight trend without notable reverses or exceptions...

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2020, 05:42:21 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #59 on: November 09, 2020, 01:45:15 PM »
The climate scientists tell us that global heating means that snowfall will be later starting up in lower latitudes but overall there is going to be more of it.

November 8th data & map supports that - especially Europe & Western Siberia.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #60 on: November 09, 2020, 10:42:32 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/8/2020) -3.184 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #61 on: November 12, 2020, 07:15:43 PM »
Some decent snowfalls in the upper Midwestern U.S. and around the Ural region of Russia, but NH snow extent anomaly still (11/11/2020) -1.842 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #62 on: November 13, 2020, 04:24:09 PM »
11/12/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  -2.191 million km^2. 

SimonF92

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #63 on: November 13, 2020, 07:55:57 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

Its dangerous to say that is it "wrong". In the 60s, if you mentioned "global warming" youd have been told you were wrong.

I understand its banned because it is pretty wild, but that doesnt mean its wrong.

Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

be cause

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #64 on: November 14, 2020, 11:18:40 AM »
so bbr has had the canadian ice sheet growing for the last 6 years .. just go back to 2016 freezing season or the like and read ad nauseum .. we need little refreshment annually .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #65 on: November 14, 2020, 03:12:41 PM »
so bbr has had the canadian ice sheet growing for the last 6 years .. just go back to 2016 freezing season or the like and read ad nauseum .. we need little refreshment annually .
Record North American extent and volume are dismissed because posters here don't know the difference between hemispheres and continents.

My reply is moderated and in red.

So why should I keep participating here.





And you just attacked me as well. I bothered logging back in to say this but maybe next time I won't, I am pretty over this.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #66 on: November 14, 2020, 03:26:08 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

Its dangerous to say that is it "wrong". In the 60s, if you mentioned "global warming" youd have been told you were wrong.

I understand its banned because it is pretty wild, but that doesnt mean its wrong.

OK. It's just unsupported completely by any relevant science.

kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #67 on: November 14, 2020, 05:11:18 PM »
His theory and the actual science it is derived from are two different things. Discussing the actual science is ok.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #68 on: November 14, 2020, 08:50:58 PM »
Folks, reglaciation is to be discussed only in the designated thread. If anyone has trouble finding it I can post a link later. If anyone wants to explore the science or lack thereof, feel free to do so over there.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #69 on: November 14, 2020, 08:52:11 PM »
Record NA snowfall is certainly welcome to be discussed here.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #70 on: November 16, 2020, 04:58:16 PM »
11/15/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  -1.592 million km^2.

European Russia FINALLY getting some snow, but some retreat in east Asia and North America. 

Kids decades from now (or even right now) are going to read about the Kronstadt rebellion during the Russian Civil War, and scratch their heads over how the Red Army was able to send cavalry over the frozen ice in March from Petrograd to the Kronstadt naval base, unless it is explicitly explained to them that the climate used to be different.  Or likewise, they are going to be scratching their heads over why Operation Typhoon in November of 1941 was so difficult meteorologically for the German Wehrmacht. 

El Cid

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #71 on: November 16, 2020, 06:04:51 PM »
  Or likewise, they are going to be scratching their heads over why Operation Typhoon in November of 1941 was so difficult meteorologically for the German Wehrmacht.

...and they will be told that it was unseasonally, unexpectedly  unbelievably cold during 1941 Nov and Dec in Eastern Europe and Russia as shown in the attachement. It was one of the coldest winters of the century.  It was 4-5 C colder in November and December than the average of that era! Even October was 2-3 C colder. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #72 on: November 19, 2020, 06:39:03 PM »
North America snow @ 18 Nov from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

SCE about 1 SD above average,
SWE very much above average.

which seems to be the patttern for early winter in recent years.

Mind you, if the centre and north of North America gets really cold (due to Al Nina and low winter sea ice in the Bering) perhaps it could get too cold for snow.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #73 on: November 19, 2020, 09:28:45 PM »
For the record, total Northern Hemisphere snow extent is still below average.  According to Cryosphere Computing, for 11/18/20 it is -0.582 million km^2. 

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #74 on: November 21, 2020, 11:49:31 PM »
For the first time in a while this year, total Northern Hemisphere snow extent is going significantly above average.  According to Cryosphere Computing, for 11/20/20 it is +0.510 million km^2.

Total combined northern hemisphere snow + ice extent is still barely below average, but most of that below-average ice extent is in the Kara Sea where the sun isn't shining anyways, so now finally the winter snow is getting some positive albedo feedback to deepen cold temperatures and snow extent further.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #75 on: November 23, 2020, 06:48:47 PM »
11/22/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  +1.236 million km^2. 

Quite a burst of snowfall in Eurasia!

The Walrus

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #76 on: November 26, 2020, 04:27:11 PM »
A major snowstorm is developing in the U.S.  Expect big changes next week.