Renewable Energy

[BenB]

Yes, Oren, but a couple of points to bear in mind:

• I believe most of the renewables in the IEA figures are biomass - basically people burning wood for food and heating in poorer countries. So if you treble the contribution from "modern" renewables, the total amount of renewables doesn't increase as much as you might expect, but the change over the past decade say is much more pronounced.
  
  
• It's the IEA, not EIA. This may seem pedantic, but confusingly the EIA is the Energy Information Administration, which is responsible for energy statistics in the US. The IEA is the International Energy Agency, which is a kind of think tank on energy matters for the OECD countries.

[oren]

Oh dear. Thanks for the clarifications.

[TerryM]

Thanks so much
Learned how much more there is to learn
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.:  How renewable energy can boost Rust Belt health by displacing coal

What they did: MIT researchers compared costs and benefits of state policies called renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and other states — and the effects of making them tougher.

They modeled maintaining renewables policies in the 10-state Rust Belt region, which creates an average renewables requirement of 13% of generation in 2030.
They then modeled two other scenarios; one would boost that overall share to 20% and another would double it to 26%.

What they found: Maintaining the requirements would bring health benefits of $4.7 billion in 2030 compared to costs of $3.5 billion in their central scenario.

Strengthening mandates to 20% provides estimated health benefits of $13.5 billion against $5.8 billion in costs.

Doubling the average required renewables share of the power mix to 26% brings health benefits of $20 billion against $9 billion in costs.

https://www.axios.com/renewable-energy-rust-belt-health-care-coal-power-4f166795-a1ae-47db-87de-38190080bdbd.html

[BenB]

You're welcome Terry. It would make life easier if all of the main providers of statistical information used the same methodology, but I suppose that – like with sea ice – the various methods all have their merits, and different agencies/companies prefer different ones.

I think that the IEA could be clearer with how they do their calculations, as you have to dig around quite a bit to find the information, and it's not all in one place. Even now, I haven't been able to find their explanation of how they calculate the primary energy for coal, but I've tried to infer it as best I can from their comments and the figures for electricity generation vs. primary energy.

[Sciguy]

India's largest oil refining company is investing heavily in renewable energy.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/26/indias-largest-oil-refiner-plans-us3-5-billion-renewable-energy-investment/

According to media reports, Indian Oil Corporation plans to invest as much as Rs 25,000 crore (US$3.5 billion) over the next few years to set up wind, solar, and bio-fuel plants. The company is also looking to invest in alternate energy solutions.

The company has an installed renewable energy capacity of 216 megawatts. The company did not share the exact details of how it plans to increase this installed capacity but did share some broad initiatives it is looking to implement or expand upon.

One of those initiatives is the installation of solar power systems at Indian Oil’s fuel retail stations. The company has around 24,000 retailing stations. In 2015, we covered a story that the company was planning to install solar power systems at 10,000 of these stations. Indian Oil had announced a scheme offering a financial subsidy up to 50% for the fuel station owners to set up solar power systems, with and without battery storage. The company has reported that around 2,000 of these fuel stations have solar power systems installed.

In the recent past, the company has also announced plans to set up large-scale solar power parks for self-consumption and to meet its renewable purchase obligation. Indian Oil, along with Oil India Corporation, had signed an agreement with the state government of Madhya Pradesh to develop solar power projects with a cumulative capacity of 2.7 gigawatts.

[gerontocrat]

You're welcome Terry. It would make life easier if all of the main providers of statistical information used the same methodology, but I suppose that – like with sea ice – the various methods all have their merits, and different agencies/companies prefer different ones.

I think that the IEA could be clearer with how they do their calculations, as you have to dig around quite a bit to find the information, and it's not all in one place. Even now, I haven't been able to find their explanation of how they calculate the primary energy for coal, but I've tried to infer it as best I can from their comments and the figures for electricity generation vs. primary energy.

The IEA have an energy converter page:-
 https://www.iea.org/statistics/resources/unitconverter/

The US EIA have an energy converter page:-
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=about_energy_conversion_calculator
which is just as well given their addiction to Btu and for coal - short tons (2,000 lbs)


It will give you hours of frustration and sometimes worth it.

[rboyd]

Palm oil: Indonesia and Malaysia push back as EU clamps down

They are going to replace lost exports by increasing usage of palm oil biodiesel at home - goodbye more rainforest.

Asia's two dominant palm oil producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, may be heading for a clash with the European Union in international court over an EU clampdown on the fuel. Indonesian President Joko Widodo, however, is not waiting around for someone else to decide the fate of the industry.

On Aug. 12, the president led a cabinet meeting on an urgent topic: biodiesel.

Widodo told his ministers that he wants all diesel sold in Indonesia to contain 30% palm oil by next January, versus the current ratio of 20%. "And then later, at the end of 2020, I want it to jump to B50," he said, meaning 50%. In a speech to parliament that week, the president said the ultimate goal is 100%.

Raising domestic consumption is more crucial than ever. The European Commission decided last year to completely phase out imports of palm oil for transport fuels by 2030, citing widespread deforestation. Not only is the EU one of the top export markets for both Indonesia and Malaysia, but officials in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur fear relentless campaigning against palm oil could trigger a broader global backlash that would threaten the industry's survival.

Yet Indonesia, which accounted for 56% of global palm oil supply in 2018, and Malaysia, which contributed 28%, claim the EU's real concern is protecting its own rapeseed and sunflower oils.

The industry turbulence is especially alarming for Indonesia, which relies on palm oil more than its neighbor. The commodity was Indonesia's No. 2 export in 2018, after coal, and brought in $20.54 billion -- about one-tenth of its total export income. Palm oil was Malaysia's seventh-biggest export, accounting for around 3.9% of its total.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Palm-oil-Indonesia-and-Malaysia-push-back-as-EU-clamps-down

[gerontocrat]

The IEA is a strange beast.

It produces only Annual Data for the world.
Monthly data is only for the 35 OECD countries, so
- nothing from Africa,
- South America, apart from Chile - nothing, (no Brazil, no Argentina......)
- Apart from Japan, S. Korea and Turkey - zilch from Asia.(No Indonesia, China, no India, ....)

the IEA have also only very recently admitted solar & wind need separate lines on their analyses, instead of in one lump of renewables. They have also only gone as far back as Jan 2016 in their new breakdown.

Nevertheless, I did an analysis, mainly because in theory the OECD should be taking the lead in promoting and implementing renewables. Here are two graphs showing progress to May 2019.

(even the ASIF dictionary says - no such word as "renewables")

[Sciguy]

Solar power is so much cheaper than coal in China that a large company there made more profit on 1.5 TWh of solar than 25.9 TWh of coal.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/08/27/china-power-figures-show-how-much-cheaper-solar-is-than-coal/

Coal may still be king when it comes to revenue generated from the sale of electricity by power giant China Power, but the attractive economics of solar have been illustrated in the utility’s first half figures.

The Hong Kong listed power company – which is owned by Chinese state-owned State Power Investment Corp Ltd – generated revenue of RMB8.48 billion ($1.18 billion) from coal-fired electricity from January to June, versus just RMB924 million from solar. However, those figures translated into a six-month profit of RMB290 million from China Power’s PV operations, outstripping the RMB259 million generated from its coal plants.

China Power is moving in the right direction with its power mix as PV contributed 16.06% of its net profits in the first half, compared to the 4.86% that came from its coal assets.

However, that solar figure had fallen from a 30.71% slice in the same period of 2018 and it was hydropower that was the dominant force this time around, thanks to markedly increased rainfall. Hydro accounted for 71.65% of the utility’s profits during the period.

[BenB]

Gerontocrat, I know about the unit conversion page, but ultimately that's generally information you can work out for yourself anyway. The bit that's missing is their own methodology for calculating the primary energy in each energy source, which is individual to each source and hence not covered by the unit converter. You can find some of that information on other pages, but they don't go out of their way to make it easily accessible.

[Shared Humanity]

A long way to go - even with exponential growth methinks forget Paris 2015, 1.5 & 2 degrees.
It makes me think that most countries, even those that are committed to sorting this out, can't do it in the timeframe required.

It can only not be done if we rely on the smooth functioning of the markets to get it done. We have the technology to be carbon neutral by 2050 but need to recognize that a Marshall Plan for conversion to renewables is needed in order to succeed.

[TerryM]

A long way to go - even with exponential growth methinks forget Paris 2015, 1.5 & 2 degrees.
It makes me think that most countries, even those that are committed to sorting this out, can't do it in the timeframe required.

It can only not be done if we rely on the smooth functioning of the markets to get it done. We have the technology to be carbon neutral by 2050 but need to recognize that a Marshall Plan for conversion to renewables is needed in order to succeed.

Fortunes were made and built under the Marshall Plan. Who will make fortunes by decreasing commercial activity?
Terry

[DrTskoul]

Marshal plan to increase the extraction of materials needed for the production of the equipment, marshal plan for the mobilization of labor at below competitive rates to keep it financially sustainable, a marshal plan to obtain the right of way in any locality that is needed regardless local opposition. Requires a determination akin to aliens attacking imminently...

[TerryM]

Marshal plan to increase the extraction of materials needed for the production of the equipment, marshal plan for the mobilization of labor at below competitive rates to keep it financially sustainable, a marshal plan to obtain the right of way in any locality that is needed regardless local opposition. Requires a determination akin to aliens attacking imminently...

Sounds wonderful to me - well, as long as it's their locality & they are the ones in opposition.


They are the ones laboring for "below competitive rates" aren't they?


Bring in the Marshal - I'll draw up some plans.
Terry

[rboyd]

The Chinese have this in place already - state ownership of 80% of the banking system and all of the land. Much easier to get societal goods such as high speed trains and solar farms in place.

Also, the increase in land values due to public expenditures goes to the state rather than to private developers/speculators. Such "land rent" increases should be taxed away for the public purse that provided the increase in a reasonable society if land is privatized.

[Sciguy]

In the US, 29 States have renewable power standards that will require 73 GW of new renewable energy being installed by 2030.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/08/26/the-ten-year-73-gigawatt-renewable-energy-business-plan/

By the end of 2029, there will be a regulatory requirement of producing greater than 551 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year of electricity from renewable portfolio sources, with 83% or 459 TWh of that coming from wind and solar power. Specifically, solar power carve-outs in 15 states represent 21 TWh.

Certain regions have far outpaced their local RPS requirements.  For instance, Texas and the Midwest have requirements of roughly 20 TWh, but are producing greater than 60 and 100 TWhs/year, respectively. The Southeast, as of the time of this report, had essentially zer0 requirements, but was producing almost 20 TWh/year of non-hydro renewables. As the authors of the paper pointed out, renewable capacity will come from many places other than RPS requirements.

Over the past decade, roughly 50% of the 154 GW of renewables deployed were to meet RPS standards, being as high as almost 80% in 2007 but falling to less than 30% by 2018. These values vary greatly by region though (below).

The actual capacity that will be deployed by 2030 to meet these requirements is projected to be 73 GW (below image), 11 GWac of that being solar power and 10 GW being offshore wind. Noted below is that the Midwest and non-California western states are way beyond their RPS values, but that the Atlantic Coast, Northeast and California have a lot of volume to deploy to meet their very aggressive mandates. The report also notes that there will be some renewables that retire (or are repowered) in this period, and that this volume isn’t represented in the document.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Does NC solar power make air pollution worse? Duke Energy in the middle of debate.
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article234303987.html

Here’s the crux of Duke’s request: Because the solar energy Duke buys is intermittent, with output rising and falling each day, often out of sync with times of peak energy demand, it has to be supplemented by other sources.

Natural gas-fired plants can quickly generate electricity when needed at critical times. The problem, Duke says, is that they release more air pollution when they ramp up and down throughout the day rather than operate steadily.

[kassy]

Not if you replace.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Maryland denies permits for solar projects that sought to clear forests
https://www.bayjournal.com/article/maryland_denies_permits_for_solar_projects_that_sought_to_clear_forests

Maryland regulators have blocked two large solar power projects in Charles County that together would have cleared 400 acres of woodlands. Some environmentalists hailed the decisions while others lamented them, highlighting tensions in the state over the siting of renewable energy projects.

[rboyd]

Maryland denies permits for solar projects that sought to clear forests
https://www.bayjournal.com/article/maryland_denies_permits_for_solar_projects_that_sought_to_clear_forests

Maryland regulators have blocked two large solar power projects in Charles County that together would have cleared 400 acres of woodlands. Some environmentalists hailed the decisions while others lamented them, highlighting tensions in the state over the siting of renewable energy projects.

A very interesting conundrum, especially when the land use emissions are up front while the offsetting reduction in fossil fuel emissions will be spread over decades. Surprised that there was no "net emissions benefit and years to payback" analysis done, should be a prerequisite for approval. Wind turbines have a definite advantage here.

The same issue exists for hydro-dams, as the land use change and rotting vegetation can produce a net increase emissions scenario for decades (especially with dams in tropical areas with especially dense vegetation).

[Sebastian Jones]

Maryland denies permits for solar projects that sought to clear forests
https://www.bayjournal.com/article/maryland_denies_permits_for_solar_projects_that_sought_to_clear_forests

Maryland regulators have blocked two large solar power projects in Charles County that together would have cleared 400 acres of woodlands. Some environmentalists hailed the decisions while others lamented them, highlighting tensions in the state over the siting of renewable energy projects.

A very interesting conundrum, especially when the land use emissions are up front while the offsetting reduction in fossil fuel emissions will be spread over decades. Surprised that there was no "net emissions benefit and years to payback" analysis done, should be a prerequisite for approval. Wind turbines have a definite advantage here.

The same issue exists for hydro-dams, as the land use change and rotting vegetation can produce a net increase emissions scenario for decades (especially with dams in tropical areas with especially dense vegetation).

Good for Maryland! There is no need to clear woodlands for solar farms. They can be integrated into existing land uses. One wonders if the value of the cleared wood was part of the proponent's business plan...

[gerontocrat]

Does NC solar power make air pollution worse? Duke Energy in the middle of debate.
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article234303987.html

Here’s the crux of Duke’s request: Because the solar energy Duke buys is intermittent, with output rising and falling each day, often out of sync with times of peak energy demand, it has to be supplemented by other sources.

Natural gas-fired plants can quickly generate electricity when needed at critical times. The problem, Duke says, is that they release more air pollution when they ramp up and down throughout the day rather than operate steadily.

Add wind, add some big batteries.
After all EVs are going to add to electricity demand.

Then they can start to retire peaker plants.
We all know this.

Just more soft denial crap.

[oren]

Good for Maryland! There is no need to clear woodlands for solar farms. They can be integrated into existing land uses.

Indeed.

[morganism]

Prototype Reactor Turns CO2 Into Formic Acid, Pure Liquid Fuel

"With its current reactor, the lab generated formic acid continuously for 100 hours with negligible degradation of the reactor's components, including the nanoscale catalysts. Wang suggested the reactor could be easily retooled to produce such higher-value products as acetic acid, ethanol or propanol fuels."

https://www.science20.com/news_staff/prototype_reactor_turns_co2_into_formic_acid_pure_liquid_fuel-241357

[Tom_Mazanec]

CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY IS TAKING CUES FROM SUNFLOWER SPIRALS, SCHOOLING FISH AND OTHER NATURAL PHENOMENA
https://ensia.com/articles/clean-energy-technology-wind-solar-biomimicry/

By observing how plants, animals and even mud behave, renewable energy innovators are uncovering new ideas for improving efficiency and output

[Sciguy]

The oil majors investing more money in renewable projects.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Big-Oil-To-Seal-Record-Number-Of-Green-Energy-Deals-In-2019.html

The world’s biggest oil companies are on track to do a record number of deals to invest in alternative energy and green technologies this year, BloombergNEF said in a report on Wednesday.
Seven months into 2019, Big Oil has already made nearly 70 deals involving renewables and biofuels, compared to 80 such agreements for the entire 2018, according to the report.

Shell announced its first-ever short-term goals to cut the carbon footprint of its operations and product sales. In July, Shell’s chief executive Ben van Beurden said that the world reducing emissions to net zero “is the only way to go,” and called on businesses to work together to move faster in addressing climate change. 
“Shell’s shift to a lower carbon footprint will transform it from one of the biggest oil companies in the world to the world’s largest electricity company by the 2030s,” energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said last month.
The Anglo-Dutch major has pledged to invest US$2 billion annually in renewables and clean technologies.

[Archimid]

Crops under solar panels can be a win-win

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/crops-under-solar-panels-can-be-a-win-win/

As for the crops, there were some significant differences. As the chiltepin peppers are shade-adapted, they were considerably happier with some solar panels overhead. Growth was calculated in terms of CO2 uptake, and this was 33% higher in the combined plot. The water-use efficiency of the plants didn’t change, so they also used more soil moisture as they grew. The mass of peppers they produced, however, tripled under the solar panels.

[rboyd]

Brutal Review of German Renewable Status By McKinsey Covered By Fortune- Renewables Threaten German Economy & Energy Supply, McKinsey Warns In New Report

One could argue the opposite of Fortune/McKinsey, with the problem being more that German government support for the Energiewende has lost a lot of momentum in the past decade. What is needed is more support for the transition not less. I do agree though that shutting down the  operational German nuclear plants is pretty stupid given climate change concerns. Don't build any more, but in the short term why shutdown fully functional nuclear plants that will be at most 32 years old at closure?

A new report by consulting giant McKinsey finds that Germany's Energiewende, or energy transition to renewables, poses a significant threat to the nation's economy and energy supply.

One of Germany's largest newspapers, Die Welt, summarized the findings of the McKinsey report in a single word: "disastrous."

"Problems are manifesting in all three dimensions of the energy industry triangle: climate protection, the security of supply and economic efficiency," writes McKinsey.

In 2018, Germany produced 866 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, a far cry from its goal of 750 million tonnes by 2020.

Germany has failed to even come close to reducing its primary energy consumption to levels it hoped. McKinsey says Germany is just 39% toward its goal for primary energy reduction.

Despite much hype, Germany still generates just 35% of its electricity from renewables. And if biomass burning, often dirtier than coal, is excluded, wind, water and solar electricity in Germany accounted for just 27% of electricity generation in 2018.

But McKinsey issues its strongest warning when it comes to Germany's increasingly insecure energy supply due to its heavy reliance on intermittent solar and wind. For three days in June 2019, the electricity grid came close to black-outs.

"Only short-term imports from neighboring countries were able to stabilize the grid," the consultancy notes.

As a result of Germany's energy supply shortage, the highest observed cost of short-term "balancing energy"  skyrocketed from €64 in 2017 to €37,856 in 2019.

"It can be assumed that security of supply will continue to worsen in the future," says McKinsey.

"The ongoing phase-out of nuclear power by the end of 2022 and the planned coal withdrawal will successively shut down further secured capacity," explained McKinsey. "In particular, the industrial regions in western and southern Germany are affected, in which many capacities go off the grid and at the same time, one can not expect high rates of development of renewables."

In June, Germany imported more electricity than it exported, and by 2023, Germany will become a net electricity importer, McKinsey predicted.

The growing insecurity of German energy supply is made worse by the fact that its neighbors Belgium and Netherlands may shut down baseload capacity: coal plants in the Netherlands and nuclear plants in Belgium.

Among the radical changes required include building transmission lines eight times faster than they are currently being built, building new back-up power plants, and installing instruments to control electricity demand, all of which would drive electricity prices even higher.

"But it is also clear that the consequences of a blackout would be much higher," warns McKinsey.

Alternatively, Germany could abandon its phase-out of nuclear energy, something the consultancy, like many others in the country, does not mention.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/05/renewables-threaten-german-economy-energy-supply-mckinsey-warns-in-new-report/#4ca5fa348e48

[rboyd]

Another Forbes Hit Piece - The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To

Even saying that Heidegger would have been against renewables! Seems Der Spiegel is also heavily against the Energiewende.

Of the 7,700 new kilometers of transmission lines needed, only 8% have been built, while large-scale electricity storage remains inefficient and expensive. “A large part of the energy used is lost,” the reporters note of a much-hyped hydrogen gas project, “and the efficiency is below 40%... No viable business model can be developed from this.”

Meanwhile, the 20-year subsidies granted to wind, solar, and biogas since 2000 will start coming to an end next year. “The wind power boom is over,” Der Spiegel concludes.

All of which raises a question: if renewables can’t cheaply power Germany, one of the richest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, how could a developing nation like Kenya ever expect them to allow it to “leapfrog” fossil fuels?

Heidegger, like much of the conservation movement, would have hated what the Energiewende has become: an excuse for the destruction of natural landscapes and local communities.

Opposition to renewables comes from the country peoples that Heidegger idolized as more authentic and “grounded” than urbane cosmopolitan elites who fetishize their solar roofs and Teslas as signs of virtue.

Many Germans will, like Der Spiegel, claim the renewables transition was merely “botched,” but it wasn't. The transition to renewables was doomed because modern industrial people, no matter how Romantic they are, do not want to return to pre-modern life.

The reason renewables can’t power modern civilization is because they were never meant to. One interesting question is why anybody ever thought they could.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/#1168900cea2b

[etienne]

Well, maybe it's time to realize that technology alone won't save us of climate change. Reducing our consumption is also needed.

[Tom_Mazanec]

'Most renewable energy companies' linked with claims of abuses in mines
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/sep/05/most-renewable-energy-companies-claims-mines

BHRRC’s deputy director, Marti Flacks, said that in many of the countries where minerals are mined, weak regulation, poor enforcement and lack of rule of law have meant many companies have escaped scrutiny.

“Renewable companies need to do their due diligence no matter where they’re working. This is not just about one country or one mineral,” said Flacks.

“The companies that develop these six minerals are by and large more medium-sized mining companies, which don’t have as extensive due diligence or human rights policies in place, nor have they faced the same kind of exposure the larger companies have had, which means they haven’t been subject to the same kind of scrutiny.

[oren]

Another Forbes Hit Piece - The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To

The new denier meme is that renewables can't work due to their limitations and that what we really need to solve the problem is to go back to pre-modern life. While containing a grain of truth, the argument presents this as an either/or black and white issue - as we're not gonna go back to the middle ages, let's do nothing.

[blumenkraft]

Wildchatter, i just wanted to reply to your post now it's gone.

You questioned the integrity of that guy Michael Shellenberger, and you are right. He is an utter moron and a shill for big energy.

The first salvo came via a Forbes article written by Michael Shellenberger, who’s running a doomed campaign for California governor and really loves nuclear power. Shellenberger’s critique focused on the problem of potential waste at the end of a solar panel lifespan when the modules must be disposed or recycled. It’s a somewhat ironic concern from a proponent of nuclear power, which has a rather bigger toxic waste problem.

Link >> https://skepticalscience.com/latest-weak-attacks-evs-solar.html

[etienne]

Another Forbes Hit Piece - The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To

The new denier meme is that renewables can't work due to their limitations and that what we really need to solve the problem is to go back to pre-modern life. While containing a grain of truth, the argument presents this as an either/or black and white issue - as we're jot gonna go back to the middle ages, let's do nothing.

There is a long way between middle age and a modern society that would not consume as much. Just reducing waste would save so much energy, but waste is something quite subjective (I use as definition : energy/material use that doesn't bring any service - income, health, security, comfort...), but a 7/24 hot oven, is it cool because you can cook any time a pizza or is it a waste of energy? Renewables can make it if we continue to improve efficiency and if we become reasonable.

[TerryM]

<snipped?
There is a long way between middle age and a modern society that would not consume as much. Just reducing waste would save so much energy, but waste is something quite subjective (I use as definition : energy/material use that doesn't bring any service - income, health, security, comfort...), but a 7/24 hot oven, is it cool because you can cook any time a pizza or is it a waste of energy? Renewables can make it if we continue to improve efficiency and if we become reasonable.

What is your definition of "it"?
Terry

[etienne]

<snipped?
There is a long way between middle age and a modern society that would not consume as much. Just reducing waste would save so much energy, but waste is something quite subjective (I use as definition : energy/material use that doesn't bring any service - income, health, security, comfort...), but a 7/24 hot oven, is it cool because you can cook any time a pizza or is it a waste of energy? Renewables can make it if we continue to improve efficiency and if we become reasonable.

What is your definition of "it"?
Terry

That's a complicated question. My feeling is that we will have to adapt ourselves to what will be available and that it will be enough. The better we prepare ourselves, the better our lives might be, excepted that PV panels only have a lifespan of 20 years (this is why I prefer solar thermal). Of course I have no idea what will limit fossil fuel availability. Right now we are in a context where renewables only reduce fossil fuels consumption, so we have no limit yet excepted the money.

[gerontocrat]

The Danes are at work... Royal Chemistry Society published the article below.

Sounds to me like something more likely to go somewhere than the recent posts about boiling coal underground.

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?org=NSF&cntn_id=299097&preview=false
National Science Federation, Denmark
Promising new solar-powered path to hydrogen fuel production

Team is first to create a solar-driven water-splitting catalyst to produce renewable energy

August 27, 2019

Engineers at Lehigh University funded by the National Science Foundation are the first to utilize a single enzyme biomineralization process to create a catalyst that uses the energy of captured sunlight to split water molecules to produce hydrogen. The synthesis process overcomes challenges of previously reported methods.

Solar-driven water splitting is a promising route towards a renewable energy-based economy. The generated hydrogen could serve as both a transportation fuel and a critical feedstock for fertilizer and chemical production. Both sectors currently contribute a large part of total greenhouse gas emissions.

"NSF funded this fundamental research to understand and engineer the process of how living things create bones, shells and other mineral-based tissues," said Nora Savage, a program director for NSF's sustainable manufacturing program, which funded the study. The nanostructures "may unlock many new capabilities -- in this case, to create special catalysts for chemical reactions that could provide sustainable energy."

A Lehigh press release details the challenges of realizing solar-driven, hydrogen energy production. Though water may be plentiful, previously-explored methods are complex and require environmentally harmful solvents and massive amounts of energy to produce the needed catalysts at a large scale. The expense and harm to the environment make these methods unworkable as long-term solutions. Lehigh's new biomineralization method shows promise at overcoming these challenges.

The team reported their results in an article featured on the cover of the August 7 issue of Green Chemistry, a journal of the Royal Society of Chemistry.

More technical stuff from the article
https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/gc/c9gc00097f#!divAbstract

Abstract
Photocatalysis is an attractive, sustainable, and potentially low-cost route to capture solar energy as fuel. However, current photocatalytic materials synthesis routes are not easily scaled-up to the magnitude required to impact our energy consumption due to both economic and environmental concerns. While the elements utilized are often earth abundant, typical synthetic routes utilize organic solvents at elevated temperatures with relatively expensive precursors.

Herein, we demonstrate the fully biomineralized synthesis of a quantum confined CdS/reduced graphene oxide (CdS/rGO) photocatalyst catalyzed by the single enzyme cystathionine γ-lyase (CSE). The synthesis is performed at pH 9 in a buffered aqueous solution, under ambient conditions, and utilizes the low-cost precursors Cd acetate, L-cysteine, graphene oxide, and a poly-L-lysine linker molecule. CSE actively decomposes L-cysteine to generate reactive HS− in aqueous solution at pH 9. Careful selection and control of the synthesis conditions enable both reduction of graphene oxide to rGO, and control over the mean CdS nanocrystal size. The CdS is conjugated to the rGO via a poly-L-lysine crosslinker molecule introduced during rGO formation.

The completed CdS/rGO photocatalyst is capable of producing H2, without the aid of a noble metal co-catalyst, at a rate of 550 μmol h−1 g−1 for an optimized CdS/rGO ratio. This rate is double that measured for unsupported CdS and is comparable to CdS/rGO photocatalysts produced using more typical chemical synthesis routes. Single enzyme biomineralization by CSE can produce a range of metal chalcogenides without altering the enzyme or benign approach, making this an easily adaptable procedure for the sustainable production of a wide variety of important photocatalyst systems.

[Sigmetnow]

Herein, we demonstrate the fully biomineralized synthesis of a quantum confined CdS/reduced graphene oxide (CdS/rGO) photocatalyst catalyzed by the single enzyme cystathionine γ-lyase (CSE).

Novel approach.  The use of cadmium may eventually need to be addressed, due all the efforts these days to reduce cadmium content in batteries.

[Sigmetnow]

Solar panels:  not just for south-facing roofs anymore.

Prof Ray Wills (@ProfRayWills) 9/7/19, 8:08 PM
A solar fence
As solar panels get cheaper, they will be used in ways that we didn't originally imagine
Garden wall of 20 pv bi-facial 410Wp that can also generate 11,000 kWh / year
pic via @GideonGoudsmit https://twitter.com/profraywills/status/1170488984436260864
- Bifacial PV modules expose both front and back of solar cells so they are designed to reduce effect of shadow
As solar incidence angle obviously not optimised, a fence loses productivity, but less consequential in higher latitudes: fine in Vic, not as good in Qld

Edit:

< Also works well when the kids smash a cricket ball into it.
Not an issue - modern panels easily survive a few cricket balls
#Qcells solar PV testing typical of survivability of modern panels

     youtu.be/grmOcOV5k9E

https://twitter.com/profraywills/status/1170582776879300608

[nanning]

The materials and resources needed in manufacturing renewable energy apparatus are themselves not renewable.

Has anyone thought this through for the long term? Say, for the future 500 years?

[Tom_Mazanec]

Renewable Energy's Booming, But Still Falling Far Short of Climate Goals
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06092019/renewable-energy-global-growth-climate-change-goals-unep-global-trends-bnef

The report, produced by the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and BloombergNEF, estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector would have been 15 percent higher in 2018 were it not for the increasing renewable energy capacity. However, it also notes that emissions still rose 10 percent from 2009 to 2019 with the rising global population despite those advancements.

Overall, Cleetus said, more must be done to curb emissions more quickly and keep the momentum going, and policy is needed to do that—whether that's adopting a carbon tax to disincentivize fossil fuels or creating renewable electricity standards to spur renewable technology use and development.

"It's not just about investments in renewable generation resources," she said, "we also need policies to drive investments in a modernized electricity grid and energy storage technologies."

[Sciguy]

There was a huge increase in global wind turbines ordered in the 2nd quarter of 2019.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/09/global-wind-turbine-order-capacity-increased-111-in-q219/

Global Wind Turbine Order Capacity Increased 111% In Q2’19
September 9th, 2019 by Joshua S Hill

Global wind turbine order intake increased by an impressive 111% in the second quarter of 2019, according to new figures published by renewable energy research firm Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, overtaking the previous record set in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Wood Mackenzie published its Global Wind Turbine Order Analysis: Q3 2019 report last week, showing that wind energy developers around the world ordered a record 31 gigawatts (GW) of wind turbine capacity in the second quarter of 2019 — a 111% year-over-year increase and a new record.

Year-to-date demand amounted to 79 GW thanks in large part to increased demand in China and the United States and despite a decrease of 41% YoY in Europe during this year’s second quarter. China and the US enjoyed impressive quarters for capacity ordered as developers made a beeline to procure turbines with sufficient time to commission projects before 2020 subsidy deadlines in both countries ran out.

[NeilT]

The materials and resources needed in manufacturing renewable energy apparatus are themselves not renewable.

Has anyone thought this through for the long term? Say, for the future 500 years?

Any more than anyone has thought about how we deal with the copper in our infrastructure and the fact that 80% of our copper comes from mines (20% from recycling), where few of the mines will last longer than 50 years at current capacity.

Modern inverters run best on copper.  Aluminium tends to fail within a normal life expectancy.

Fusion is the holy grail and everyone knows it.  The problem with fusion is that it has remained 10 years away for the last 5 decades and will probably remain 10 years away for a few more decades.

It is quite possible, in the deserts, to use pipes, mirrors and steam to generate electricity from a standard steam turbine.  However wind and solar photovoltaic are significantly cheaper, use less ground and have a higher output for the same surface area.

Everyone knows that the current resource usage of the human race is unsustainable, we are close to using 2 Earths worth or resources every year.  This is not news.

I'm sure that those who advocate a consumer market are looking, ever more fondly, towards the asteroid belt. Where several Earth's worth or materials are sitting there waiting for the bold to take them, without the competition of "ownership".

But all of that is a sideshow.  If we don't get CO2 emissions under control in the next decade or two, you can forget 500 years because the bulk of humanity will not be around to worry about it and the remaining resources will be plenty for all.

[NeilT]

There was a huge increase in global wind turbines ordered in the 2nd quarter of 2019.

That part is good news, especially US and China.

This, however is not.

despite a decrease of 41% YoY in Europe

[rboyd]

So much for the Energiewende ....

German wind power industry warns of “precarious” situation at major industry fair

Wind power is Germany's most important renewable energy source and at times already provides over one-third of all electricity in the country. However, expansion fell to the lowest level since 2000 in the first half of 2019, mainly due to the fact that the construction of more than 2,000 turbines has been put on hold due to licensing problems caused by lawsuits from citizens, environmental groups and aviation authorities.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-wind-power-industry-warns-precarious-situation-major-industry-fair

Onshore wind power auction in Germany once again fails to attract enough bidders

The lack of interest in Germany's onshore wind power auctions continued in the latest auction in September, which once again failed to attract enough bidders to meet the auctioned volume, Germany's federal network agency (BNetzA) said. Of the 500 megawatt (MW) auctioned, only 187 MW could be awarded to a total of 21 bidders. "This is clearly not enough to speak of competition," the BNetzA said. The average support awarded to bidders stood at the "record-high" level of 6.2 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), the agency said. The largest share of the auctioned volume, about 64 MW, went to Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia.

The expansion of onshore wind power, which is supposed to become Germany's chief source of electricity in the future, has stalled significantly, reaching the lowest level in 20 years in the first half of 2019. A flawed auction design and difficulties in obtaining licenses for turbine construction have discouraged investors and led to sinking participation volumes in onshore tenders. Energy minister Peter Altmaier called a national wind power summit in early September, where he and his state colleagues promised a set of legal reforms to ensure wind power expansion reaches the level needed to meet the country's renewable power expansion goals.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/onshore-wind-power-auction-germany-once-again-fails-attract-enough-bidders

[Tom_Mazanec]

It’s now cheaper to build new renewables than it is to build natural gas plants
https://www.fastcompany.com/90402331/its-now-cheaper-to-build-new-renewables-than-it-is-to-build-natural-gas-plants

“In 2019, given what is needed on the grid today, we show that these technologies have crossed the line and become the cheapest way to add electricity to the grid,” says Chaz Teplin, a manager in RMI’s electricity practice. “Going forward, that case is going to only accelerate because while the price of natural gas, for example, may fluctuate up and down, the cost to install new renewables is only going to continue to decrease.”

[Sciguy]

Geothermal energy in the UK!

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/13/geothermal-energy-ltd-completes-3-2-mile-deep-well-in-uk/

The deepest and hottest geothermal wells in the world have been completed after 10 months of drilling at United Downs in the southwest of England near Falmouth. The $22 million wells are 3.1 miles deep and 383º F /195º C at the bottom.

"What we are doing…..is vitally important for the whole geothermal energy sector. All eyes were on us. There has been an enormous amount of interest in this site from all over Europe so it was very important that we drilled these two wells successfully. The potential is enormous. We have identified at least another 20 sites in Cornwall so, planning permission permitting, our rig will be seen around Cornwall again in the near future.”

The J shape of the well is designed to intercept a geological structure known as the Porthtowan Fault, which makes it possible for water to continuously circulate through the hot rock from the injection well and back into the production well. As the water moves through the rock, it picks up heat which can be extracted and converted into electricity at the surface.

Geothermal technology has one important characteristic that many sources of renewable energy lack. It operates 24 hours a day and is not dependent on sunshine or wind speeds to make electricity. The United Downs project is intended to demonstrate the feasibility of geothermal technology in the UK and prove it can play an important role in the future of renewable energy. 

[Sigmetnow]

Commercial solar from Tesla.  Three standard sizes.  Buy or subscribe.  Order in 5 minutes online.  Pay as low as $1.01 per watt.

Tesla Announces Simple Pricing On Commercial Solar, $1.01/Watt (Will Blow Some Minds)

Many will focus on how this makes it so easy to buy commercial sizes of solar. They are banking on you trusting the Tesla brand name to give you good pricing, quality, and reliability — enough so that you will just fill out the 12 fields and put the $100 on your corporate credit card. If this works, it will slash the marketing and sales costs of commercial solar, and that could help cut the costs of solar acquisition.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/14/tesla-announces-simple-pricing-on-commercial-solar-1-01-watt-will-blow-some-minds/

Tesla.com/bigsolar

[kassy]

This is also related to renewable energy:

Per the linked article, sulfur hexafluoride, is the most powerful GHG known to man, and its emissions have been rising rapidly in recent years:

Title: "Climate change: Electrical industry's 'dirty secret' boosts warming"

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49567197

Extract: "It's the most powerful greenhouse gas known to humanity, and emissions have risen rapidly in recent years, the BBC has learned.

Sulphur hexafluoride, or SF6, is widely used in the electrical industry to prevent short circuits and accidents.

But leaks of the little-known gas in the UK and the rest of the EU in 2017 were the equivalent of putting an extra 1.3 million cars on the road."

See the artice for details but here is a further quote:

Are there alternatives - and are they very expensive?
The question of alternatives to SF6 has been contentious over recent years.

For high-voltage applications, experts say there are very few solutions that have been rigorously tested.

"There is no real alternative that is proven," said Prof Manu Haddad from the school of engineering at Cardiff University.

"There are some that are being proposed now but to prove their operation over a long period of time is a risk that many companies don't want to take."

However, for medium voltage operations there are several tried-and-tested materials. Some in the industry say that the conservative nature of the electrical industry is the key reason that few want to change to a less harmful alternative.

"I will tell you, everyone in this industry knows you can do this; there is not a technical reason not to do it," said Louis Shaffer from Eaton.

"It's not really economic; it's more a question that change takes effort and if you don't have to, you won't do it."

So basically it should be banned worldwide for the medium voltage operators and we should invest some money in targeted research to see we we can find other solutions for the high voltage applications.

On another note the electric grid everywhere needs a lot of rework but there does not seem a thread on that.

Recently i read about the dutch grid. We have strong connections were they are needed but weaker ones out in ´the country´. Many of these are good spots to put a solar park but on many regions the connections can´t handle the new input. They also said it took 6-8 years to built new ones but that includes a lot of red tape and/or lack of resources allocated so 2-3 should be doable.

Should there be some thread about the grid?