Is there a flaw in that thinking which makes you so pessimistic?
Not at all.
One week is just 2% of a year. Sounds like you are saying because the cup is 2% empty we should be pessimistic rather than seeing a 98% full cup as reason to be optimistic.
Perhaps as much as the last 10% is more difficult. However, we are a long way from that and don't yet need to plan exactly how we do this last 10%
* as we will gain more experience along the way from solar and wind making up a couple of percent to becoming a majority. Then we will be better placed to see how to plan how to do the last few percent.
You are seeing the plans as deficient as if we need all the details you want in order to be able to start a single building project. The reality is, I think, rather different: They are more like outline considerations that show there are no major problems to increasing wind and solar from small percentages to a majority.
Including new nuclear in the plan would increase the investment amounts needed and the average cost of electricity. It doesn't make sense to include that if it isn't needed for a purpose of showing there is no roadblock to getting to 90% renewables.
I do agree with you that there should be realism and they shouldn't claim 100% wind and solar is possible if they haven't shown it is possible and cost effective to have sufficient storage for a couple of weeks of cloudy but not much wind weather. Instead they should be aiming to show 90%
* is
easya lot of work but doable and cheap enough that the savings are sufficiently large to give plenty of scope to tackle the last 10%
* even with today's overbuild costs and storage options. It probably should admit that FF might do this 10%
* cheaper at present but by the time we get there lots of improved new methods are under development that can be expected to make that last 10% without FF cheaper.
In my opinion, this call for realism needn't sound as pessimistic as you seem make it.
'A lot of work but doable' might take too much time, and we should want to speed up the transition.
Re "experiencing what our governments do over decades": Advocate a ramping up carbon tax and let market forces decide how best to minimize those taxes? Or is more intervention appropriate and useful?
* I have just plucked this 10% out of thin air. I think a report should show:
There is no problem going from 2% wind and solar to 10%.
There is no problem going from 10% wind and solar to 30%.
There is no problem going from 30% wind and solar to 50%.
There is no problem going from 50% wind and solar to 70%.
There is no problem going from 70% wind and solar to 80%.
There is no problem going from 80% wind and solar to 85%.
... until they can't
to roughly estimate what this x% figure is. This x% figure might be like 30% or more with current costs of overbuilding and storage but with further cost reductions expected as volumes increase, it is likely to fall considerably. How accurately that could be estimated, I am not sure.