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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3550 on: May 20, 2019, 05:51:40 PM »
Tom, he writes
Quote
In fact, such an examination has been done many times already,
and links to an article that has nothing to do with renewables.

If you look up studies on the topic you'll find many positive results. Of course, it is doable!

Quote
According to a review of the 181 peer-reviewed papers on 100% renewable energy which were published until 2018, "[t]he great majority of all publications highlights the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% RE systems."
Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%25_renewable_energy

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3551 on: May 20, 2019, 06:36:55 PM »
John Michael Greer's take on renewable energy's inability to save industrial civilization:
https://www.ecosophia.net/a-conversation-with-the-world/
Oh lordy, and he sports one of those Old Testament Prophet beards. My chakras don't approve.

Quote
John Michael Greer - Resilience
https://www.resilience.org/resilience-author/john-michael-greer/
John Michael Greer is a widely read author and blogger whose work focuses on the overlaps between ecology, spirituality, and the future of industrial society. He served twelve years as Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America, and currently heads the Druidical Order of the Golden Dawn
.

What with the weirdo posts on "Re: Places that will remain livable if we get 3C temp rise ?" this here science-based(?) forum is getting a bit odd.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3552 on: May 20, 2019, 07:09:44 PM »
Here's an interesting article on renewable energy in Texas that shows how quickly renewables can grow.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/19/texas-going-big-on-renewables-phase-ii-has-started/

Quote
Let’s look at the April 2018 and 2019 GIS reports:


Report Date
 
April 2018
 
April 2019
 

Combined Cycle Natural Gas
 
8 GW
 
3 GW
 

Turbine Natural Gas (peakers)
 
5 GW
 
6.5 GW
 

Storage (battery + compressed air)
 
0.3 GW
 
4 GW
 

Wind
 
33 GW
 
36 GW
 

Solar
 
25 GW
 
55 GW
 

Did you notice the shifts in the market? Lets break it down:

First, the big one: planned solar projects are more than double, and have blown way past wind projects, which are only up about 10%. Side note: California has around 25 GW of installed solar power. Texas has over twice that in planned projects, plus the ~3 GW currently installed.

Second: Despite having a vast oversupply of fracked gas in-state, planned construction of natural gas power is down, especially natural gas that expects to run most of the time (combined cycle) – leaving mostly peaker plants with an expected ~10% capacity factor.

Third: Storage is coming, in a big way. Combined, the planned projects are 40×(!!) the size of the Tesla “big battery” (Hornsdale Power Reserve) in Australia.

Quote
When is all this happening? ERCOT is projecting it to be mostly coming online in 2020–2021. There’s a definite uptick in solar in 2019, but the big growth is about to hit next year.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3553 on: May 20, 2019, 07:53:00 PM »
Global economy would save up to $160 trillion by shifting to renewables, electric cars

"Every dollar spent on energy transition would pay off up to seven times."


Quote
Imagine a world where 85% of all electricity comes from renewable sources, there are over one billion electric vehicles on the road, and we are on track to preserve a livable climate for our children and future generations.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reported this week that such a future is not merely possible by 2050, but thanks to plummeting prices in key clean energy technologies, the cost of saving the climate has dropped dramatically.

In fact, according to IRENA’s new report, the most cost-effective strategy to achieve a “climate-safe future” — keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — is an accelerated energy transition to renewables and energy efficiency coupled with electrification of key sectors like transportation.

This Renewable Energy Roadmap (REmap) scenario “would also save the global economy up to USD 160 trillion cumulatively over the next 30 years in avoided health costs, energy subsidies and climate damages.”

Link >> https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-electric-vehicles-climate-cost-4eb542fa68fe/?edf=988

Neven

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3554 on: May 20, 2019, 08:03:27 PM »
Global economy would save up to $160 trillion by shifting to renewables, electric cars

Problem is: Concentrated wealth wants to have that $160 trillion.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3555 on: May 20, 2019, 08:48:20 PM »
Wind and solar are intermittent, of course.
How is power storage for off production periods coming along? This may be the decisive factor in adapting renewable.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3556 on: May 20, 2019, 08:56:56 PM »
Wind and solar are intermittent, of course.
How is power storage for off production periods coming along? This may be the decisive factor in adapting renewable.

There have been quite a number of posts about advances in energy storage in the past weeks and months.  I'd say the field is advancing.

Of course, it's not just storage that will solve the issues.  High-voltage DC transmission lines can move energy from where there's plenty to where there's need with low losses, over hundreds of miles.

And then there's demand management.  Charging users a varying rate depending on supply constraints.

Now, the storage and transmission will add costs.  And demand management will be inconvenient.  But climate catastrophe is likely to be more costly and more inconvenient.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3557 on: May 20, 2019, 09:21:05 PM »
Global economy would save up to $160 trillion by shifting to renewables, electric cars

Problem is: Concentrated wealth wants to have that $160 trillion.

But the more average and more numerous consumer will be saving, for example, on the Total Cost Of Ownership of EVs compared to ICE cars.  And even the poorest will save because of improved health from less air pollution.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3558 on: May 20, 2019, 09:32:42 PM »
Other solutions to intermittency, besides grid-tied batteries:
* Hydro - which is essentially (under most water flow scenarios, though not all) a huge dispatchable energy storage mechanism.
* Pumped-up Hydro - the above plus the ability to recharge by excess electricity.
* Demand management - changing the time of operation of heavy appliances, EV charging, some industrial processes, water supply activities (pumping, desalination) and more, either via a smart pricing mechanism, appropriate technology, or laws.
* "Peaker" and dispatchable natural gas plants - backing up the grid during those times when all other solutions are unavailable. On the path to zero emissions, it's better to emit 5% or 10% of the time rather than all the time.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3559 on: May 21, 2019, 03:40:55 AM »
I love hydro but if you have fish it is not dispatchable. I don't remember exact numbers but if river levels change substantially over the course of a day you leave fish stranded in shallows and kill them. Here in the northwest US the first priority for dam operations is the needs of fish. that means gradual changes to river levels over the course of days. during spring we have to release more water than we would like to provide enough flow to allow mature fish to spawn upstream. A few days a year that flow is so high dam operators essentially pay far away customers to take power. Power plant operators in the western united states plan maintenance for spring because we provide so much power wholesale prices go negative.


dam operator priorties
1. Fish
2. water distribution this includes many competing demands for drinking, irrigation, storage and other uses
.
.
.
Last. Power generation

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3560 on: May 21, 2019, 03:50:21 AM »
Thanks for these details.

Neven

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3561 on: May 21, 2019, 11:46:31 AM »
Global economy would save up to $160 trillion by shifting to renewables, electric cars

Problem is: Concentrated wealth wants to have that $160 trillion.

But the more average and more numerous consumer will be saving, for example, on the Total Cost Of Ownership of EVs compared to ICE cars.  And even the poorest will save because of improved health from less air pollution.

I agree it would be much more better, and that's exactly the reason why concentrated wealth will do everything it can to find ways to cannibalize those advantages for the many, if not outright preventing them from happening. Which is why there needs to be a cap on wealth.
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rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3562 on: May 21, 2019, 10:28:21 PM »
A reality that Extinction Rebellion need to face squarely up to, otherwise they will simply facilitate further concentration of wealth while not really fixing the climate (and ecology generally) issue.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3563 on: May 23, 2019, 12:36:49 AM »
France is starting to move toward PPAs for renewable energy.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/05/22/first-corporate-ppa-for-large-scale-solar-signed-in-france/

Quote
French renewables developer Voltalia has secured a 25-year corporate PPA for energy generated by a 5 MW solar facility with French retailer Boulanger the off-taker.

Voltalia said it is the first PPA between a power producer and big private energy consumer in France. Although several deals of a similar kind have been announced in recent months, the Voltalia contract is the only bilateral PPA to have been signed in France to date.

The developer has not disclosed the price at which Boulanger will buy electricity from its facility, which is expected to be grid connected in 2022, but said the retailer had committed through an exclusive partnership agreement to prioritize buying power from wind and solar plants to be developed by Voltalia.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3564 on: May 25, 2019, 01:37:30 PM »
”More energy strikes the earth from the sun in an hour (and a half) than the world uses in a year.”
Quote
12. What is the theoretical potential of solar energy?
Sunlight has by far the highest theoretical potential of the earth’s renewable energy sources. The solar constant (the solar flux intercepted by the earth) is 1.37 kW/m2. The cross-sectional area of the earth intercepting this flux at any instant is πr2 (where r = 6,378 km is the earth’s radius), but the surface area of the earth over which this flux is averaged over time is 4πr2. Hence, the time-and-space-averaged solar flux striking the outer atmosphere of the earth is (1.37 kW/m2) / 4 = 342.5 W/m2. In addition, enroute to the earth’s surface, about 30% of this flux is scattered, and about 19% is absorbed, by the atmosphere and clouds (Wallace 1977, pp. 320-321). Hence, the average flux striking the earth’s surface is 342.5 W/m2 · (1-0.49) = 174.7 W/m2.
The theoretical potential of solar power is the integral of this average flux over the earth’s surface area (4πr2):
(4) P = (174.7 W/m2) · (4πr2)
= (174.7 W/m2) · 4π · (6,378 km)2 · (106 m2/km2) · (10-12 TW/W)
= 89,300 TW.
This theoretical potential represents more energy striking the earth’s surface in one and a half hours (480 EJ)67 than worldwide energy consumption in the year 2001 from all sources combined (430 EJ)68.
https://www.sandia.gov/%7Ejytsao/Solar%20FAQs.pdf


How Much Room Do We Need To Supply The Entire World With Solar Electricity?
Quote
In 2009, the total global electricity consumption was 20,279,640 GWh. The sun creates more energy than that in one hour. The tricky part is collecting that energy and converting it into useful electricity with solar panels. How much area would need to be covered with solar panels in order to capture enough energy to meet global demand? Actually, it’s not as much as you’d think.

The image [below] has three red boxes showing what area would need to be covered for Germany (De), Europe (EU-25), and the entire world.
https://www.iflscience.com/environment/how-much-room-do-we-need-supply-entire-world-solar-electricity/
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3565 on: May 25, 2019, 03:22:06 PM »
That is true, Sigmetnow, but don’t forget that exponential growth will run out even this much potential energy in a historical eyeblink.

EDIT: And we are falling behind in rolling RE out:
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/05/report-global-electricity-access-up-but-sustainable-development-goals-are-not-being-met.html

EDIT 2: Video on California's problems in going renewable:
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 03:56:49 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3566 on: May 31, 2019, 06:22:52 PM »
After a couple of poorly subscribed tenders earlier this year, India has rebounded with good news on the latest national solar tender.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/31/1-5x-oversubscription-in-indias-latest-solar-tender/

Quote
Finally, a ray of hope for the Indian renewable energy market with massive oversubscription in the latest and fourth national-level solar power tender issued by the Solar Energy Corporation of India. The massive oversubscription reported for this tender comes after capacity offered in a slew of state and central-level tenders remained unsubscribed by project developers.

Reports are in on the technical bids submitted by project developers against the 1.2 gigawatt solar power tender announced in February 2019. The technical round of bidding, and the announcement of results, seems to have been delayed due to the announcement of general elections in India. However, the delayed action has not dampened the spirits of the participating project developers.

A total of seven project developers submitted bids to set up a cumulative capacity of 1.9 gigawatts, around 1.5 times the offered capacity of 1.2 gigawatts.

And results of the recent elections point toward the good news continuing.

Quote
The results of the fourth tender were reported just a week after results of the latest general elections were announced. A huge proponent of renewable energy, Narendra Modi’s government has returned to power with a massive majority.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3567 on: May 31, 2019, 10:39:23 PM »
China plans to end subsidies for renewable energy in 2021.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-china-ready-for-subsidy-free-renewables

Quote
Subsidies play a key role in renewables project development in China, and for years have placed a major financial burden on the Renewable Energy Development Fund managed by China’s central government. By the end of 2018, the fund had already accumulated a deficit of over RMB 100 billion ($14.5 billion).

China wants to reach its wind and solar power grid parity targets by 2020, so that electricity created by these sources can be sold to the grid at the same price as coal-fired power. To achieve this, the government is now leveraging its range of policies in a careful balancing act to both reduce the subsidy burden on the fund while maintaining a fairly stable market.

On May 24, China’s National Energy Administration released its final guidance on wind power prices for existing and new projects, underpinning its determination to achieve grid parity. According to the notice, new onshore projects permitted after January 1, 2021 must be subsidy-free. Before that, developers will need to bid in provincial-level auctions to receive wind power tariffs above the regulated coal-fired tariff level.

The article explains that wind power is having a difficult time competing without subsidies.  Solar is in a much better position.

Quote
Solar power faces the same grid parity mandates, but progress toward meeting the targets seems smoother than for wind after the solar feed-in tariff was reduced last year. Wood Mackenzie expects around 5 gigawatts of unsubsidized solar projects will be connected to the grid in 2019, based on project lists published by the government on May 20. The 2019 figure accounts for about 40 percent of the total for approved projects on the list.

Rishab Shrestha, a Wood Mackenzie solar analyst, said: “Aggressive solar cost declines and recent policy developments are the main reasons behind the fast growth of unsubsidized solar projects.”

WoodMac expects seven provinces to have a solar LCOE lower than the coal benchmark tariff in 2019. These provinces lie in the western and southern regions of China where the benchmark coal tariff and solar insolation are both higher.
Guangxi and Guangdong are on that list.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3568 on: June 02, 2019, 08:03:30 PM »
“A century from now, if we overspent slightly in some investments to save ourselves from climate change, will anyone complain about not having destroyed the planet? In fact even if a small percent of companies fail, a high percent will succeed, and this will accelerate learning curves and result in a more rapid transition. This means the savings compared to business as usual with fossil fuels will more than pay for a few failures. But to get that far, we have to accept a bit of risk and will have to plan judiciously. We must ignore the FUD from the right and let their efforts to prevent progress ring on deaf ears.”...

China Is Eating Our Lunch, & What We Can Do About It
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/02/china-is-eating-our-lunch-what-we-can-do-about-it/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3569 on: June 04, 2019, 03:16:51 AM »
U.S.:  Gov. Gretchen Whitmer opens up more Michigan farmland to solar power
Quote
LANSING — Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced a policy change Monday that would allow solar energy development on up to 3.4 million acres of farmland.

Landowners in Michigan’s Farmland and Open Space Preservation program — which offers tax credits to those who keep land under contract for agricultural use for decades — may now put commercial solar panels on their land under certain conditions, Whitmer announced.

The move reverses a 2017 decision under then-Gov. Rick Snyder, a Republican, that barred solar power development in the preservation program, which covers about one-third of the state’s 10 million acres of farmland.

“My administration understands and is committed to helping meet the growing demand for clean, renewable energy sources in our state,” Whitmer, a Democrat, said in a statement. “By preparing for and investing in renewable energy, we're protecting our environment while diversifying revenue options for Michigan farmers and supporting economic development and job creation in a key Michigan industry." ...
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/gov-gretchen-whitmer-opens-more-michigan-farmland-solar-power
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Archimid

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3570 on: June 04, 2019, 03:20:02 AM »
Energy Storage in Hydrogen : Does this beat batteries?



Brilliant video. The whole channel is worth checking out.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3571 on: June 04, 2019, 08:38:38 AM »
The whole channel is worth checking out.

+1

Sleepy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3572 on: June 04, 2019, 08:54:40 AM »
Energy Storage in Hydrogen : Does this beat batteries?
<snip>
Not yet, but we have the Worlds first off grid hydrogen station in Mariestad in operation now, documents attached at the link. The municipality is hoping to reach a fuel cost of 7kr/10km.

Inauguration of the Worlds first off grid hydrogen station in Mariestad on Tuesday (May 28).
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/folj-med-till-varldens-forsta-sjalvforsorjande-vatgasmack
Video at the link, unfortunately in Swedish.

Looks nice, until you start looking at the numbers and realize how many that would be needed.
Document links at the botttom.

Edit; forgot to add the obvious, the winter months here doesn't provide much energy.


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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3573 on: June 04, 2019, 08:47:24 PM »
The world's largest offshore wind farm is now operational.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-worlds-largest-offshore-wind-farm-just-came-online-1835215479

Quote
The UK is quickly becoming the epicenter of the offshore wind industry. Point in case: On Monday, the first part of the world’s largest and furthest offshore wind farm came online.

The first workers were shuttled 75 miles off the east coast from Grimsby, UK, to the Hornsea One wind farm, which is partially operational. When it comes fully online next year, it will be capable of generating enough electricity to power a million homes. Right now, it’s “only” capable of powering up to 287,000 homes. But the opening of the farm coupled with plans to construct a twin behemoth nearby shows that offshore wind is growing in leaps and bounds.

The massive wind farm currently has 50 of its 174 turbines spinning. When completed, the project will have a generating capacity of 1.2 gigawatts, more than double the capacity of the current largest offshore wind installation (which is also in the UK).

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3574 on: June 05, 2019, 03:27:52 PM »
Skeleton Ultra Capacitors


SteveMDFP

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3575 on: June 05, 2019, 07:28:19 PM »
Skeleton Ultra Capacitors


It's a good video.  The spokesman makes a good point, that ultracapacitors really shine when used in combination with batteries.  The uc takes all the sharp peaks and valleys of inflow and outflow of power, reducing stress and heat of the battery component, very substantially increasing battery life.  It's useful to have both charging stations and vehicles to have ultracapacitors, permitting moderate amounts of energy to be transferred very, very quickly.

It's a great use for graphene.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3576 on: June 05, 2019, 07:56:12 PM »
Agreed Steve,

when it comes to maintaining the grid, one thing is crucial: The grid frequency must be exactly 50hz. UCs are making this task way easier. Batteries now last longer due to lowering the peaks, and the grid profits from very high peak capability and therefore stability.

And then there is my pet theory... It's that someone out there will figure out how to stall the discharging process of UCs. That would mean you can charge your car in seconds via UC which then discharges into the battery slowly while you are already on the go. That would be awesome.

Sleepy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3577 on: June 06, 2019, 07:19:12 AM »
Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6443/836
Quote
Solar energy has the potential to play a central role in the future global energy system because of the scale of the solar resource, its predictability, and its ubiquitous nature. Global installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 500 GW at the end of 2018, and an estimated additional 500 GW of PV capacity is projected to be installed by 2022–2023, bringing us into the era of TW-scale PV. Given the speed of change in the PV industry, both in terms of continued dramatic cost decreases and manufacturing-scale increases, the growth toward TW-scale PV has caught many observers, including many of us (1), by surprise. Two years ago, we focused on the challenges of achieving 3 to 10 TW of PV by 2030. Here, we envision a future with ∼10 TW of PV by 2030 and 30 to 70 TW by 2050, providing a majority of global energy. PV would be not just a key contributor to electricity generation but also a central contributor to all segments of the global energy system. We discuss ramifications and challenges for complementary technologies (e.g., energy storage, power to gas/liquid fuels/chemicals, grid integration, and multiple sector electrification) and summarize what is needed in research in PV performance, reliability, manufacturing, and recycling.

Adding Fig2.

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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3578 on: June 06, 2019, 11:30:51 AM »
Thanks Sleepy, an interesting read.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3579 on: June 08, 2019, 01:33:13 AM »
Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6443/836
Quote
Solar energy has the potential to play a central role in the future global energy system because of the scale of the solar resource, its predictability, and its ubiquitous nature. Global installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 500 GW at the end of 2018, and an estimated additional 500 GW of PV capacity is projected to be installed by 2022–2023, bringing us into the era of TW-scale PV. Given the speed of change in the PV industry, both in terms of continued dramatic cost decreases and manufacturing-scale increases, the growth toward TW-scale PV has caught many observers, including many of us (1), by surprise. Two years ago, we focused on the challenges of achieving 3 to 10 TW of PV by 2030. Here, we envision a future with ∼10 TW of PV by 2030 and 30 to 70 TW by 2050, providing a majority of global energy. PV would be not just a key contributor to electricity generation but also a central contributor to all segments of the global energy system. We discuss ramifications and challenges for complementary technologies (e.g., energy storage, power to gas/liquid fuels/chemicals, grid integration, and multiple sector electrification) and summarize what is needed in research in PV performance, reliability, manufacturing, and recycling.

Adding Fig2.



Here's an interesting article that points out when you go to total electrification of the energy system with carbon-free sources, you need less energy overall because you aren't producing as much wasted energy.

https://medium.com/otherlab-news/decarbonization-and-gnd-b8ddd569de16

Quote
Decarbonizing electricity saves us 25% of all national energy usage.

First, the largest saving in a totally decarbonized economy is the enormous amount of energy lost (and carbon dioxide produced) in generating electricity from fossil fuels. Around 25%⁶ of our total energy need is eliminated because burning fossil fuels to create electricity is a very inefficient process that generates an enormous amount of waste heat⁷⁸. Of the 39 quads of primary energy going into the electricity sector, only about 12 are actually delivered to industry, our homes, and our businesses. The rest disappears, quite literally, into the air as waste heat and carbon dioxide.

Quote
Electrifying transportation saves us 14%.

The electrification of transportation is the next big energy win. 28 quads of primary energy goes into the transportation industry, which includes cars, trucks, airplanes, trains and boats. The overwhelming majority of vehicles now run on oil. If we electrify all cars and trucks, we will reduce by about ⅔ the amount of energy consumed in moving those vehicles⁹. Car engines are even less efficient than power plants in converting fossil fuels into a useful activity. Typically they run at about 25% efficiency, with further losses in the drivetrain. Electric cars have gone mainstream, are dropping in cost, and are expanding in performance, range, and options. A Green New Deal will increase the speed and impact of this industry transformation.

That’s great news; of the 21 quads we currently require for road and highway transportation, we’ll only need about 7, so the other 14 quads won’t need to be produced or generated.

Not needing to find, mine, refine and transport fossil fuels saves us 6%.

A huge amount of fossil fuel is used to discover, mine, process, and transport fossil fuels. In a zero carbon economy, we won’t need to expend that energy. How much is that? 0.9 quads are used for pumping natural gas through 4.4 million miles of pipelines; more than 3 quads is used to turn oil into gasoline and other fuel products in refineries; almost 2 quads is used extracting oil and natural gas; 0.25 quads is used for mining equipment and 0.25 quads is using diesel to push the coal from mine to power plant. That’s a further 6 quads of the current energy economy that we won’t need. Yes, we will have to build windmills, solar cells, batteries, nuclear plants, and electrical vehicles to substitute, but the energy used in their construction and operation is likely a smaller percentage of the 21st-century energy economy¹⁰. Solar panels produce the energy of their production in the first 1–2 years of their life, and last for 20–25 years¹¹. Wind turbines pay back the energy of their production in the first 6–9¹² months of a 20-plus year life.

Sleepy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3580 on: June 08, 2019, 07:06:57 AM »
Quote
the only viable pathway to American abundance and excellence
Classic GreenBAU. Ignore sustainability. Ignore resource use. Ignore the limits. Ignore those who already died. Ignore the rest of the world.

Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3581 on: June 08, 2019, 05:01:22 PM »
I've never understood that graph.  Why does the "Rest of the World" get cut off - 'prematurely' terminating their greenhouse gas emissions  (God bless them every one.) while the big four get to blithely pass the date of catastrophe, dancing into the overheated sunset.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3582 on: June 08, 2019, 06:26:16 PM »
I've never understood that graph.  Why does the "Rest of the World" get cut off - 'prematurely' terminating their greenhouse gas emissions  (God bless them every one.) while the big four get to blithely pass the date of catastrophe, dancing into the overheated sunset.

Could it be sarcasm?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3583 on: June 08, 2019, 07:09:04 PM »
Quote
the only viable pathway to American abundance and excellence
Classic GreenBAU. Ignore sustainability. Ignore resource use. Ignore the limits. Ignore those who already died. Ignore the rest of the world.

RoW to Mad Scientists (who made the graph):
                     "You expect me to stop emitting CO2 by the end of 2020 ?"

Mad Scientists to RoW:
                     "No, Mr RoW, we expect you to die"
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3584 on: June 11, 2019, 01:13:58 PM »
https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3077120/50mw-super-battery-approved-for-uks-biggest-windfarm

Already posted in the Batteries thread but worth a posting here as a reminder that a utility with contracts to supply electricity 24/7 to many thousands of domestic, commercial and industrial customers reckons they can go 100% renewable.

Scottish power have sold ALL their fossil fuel generation plants and are going for wind power in a very big way. What to do about intermittent supply as wind speed drops ?

Big Batteries e.g. this first one of 50 MWH.

Not only solving much of problem A. Intermittent supply, but also
B. Excess supply - batteries charged up during low demand periods. Productivity of wind power installations increased.
and C: instant response to short-term supply problems means not paying vast market prices at these times.

They will do the same at all their plants.

I bet that they had a damn good look at the Australia Big Battery** - and found adding batteries might actually make them money, not add costs.

Quote
"By integrating storage technologies with onshore wind, we are blowing away one of the myths about renewable generation not being available when you need it," said Keith Anderson, chief executive at ScottishPower. "Natural resources like wind and solar are variable in their very nature, and by using a battery we can ensure we optimise our ability to use the resource most effectively."

The 'super battery' will allow the wind farm to store excess power at times when demand is low or wind turbine output is high - for instance at night - which can then be released at times of higher demand and low wind.

It will also be used to provide "bursts" of power to help stabilise the UK grid on a second-by-second basis, ScottishPower said.

Will it solve all the difficulties in getting to 100% zero-carbon. No.
Will it get the industry a lot closer to that goal? YES.

It's a no-brainer.
____________________________________________________
** Scottish Power is just the latest utility to jump on this bandwagon. And credit where credit is due - it was Musk / Tesla who made the big push to make the Big Aussie Battery happen which proved the concept. One for the TESLA Glory/Failure thread.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3585 on: June 11, 2019, 01:25:07 PM »
So rocken wir die Energiewende! Interview mit Prof. Christian Breyer

So sorry, that this isn't in English.

It's an interview with an energy professor speaking about all the aspects of a complete energy transition to 100% renewables for power and warmth in 10 years and lines out perfectly how it is indeed possible from a technical standpoint.

He actually speaks of political sabotage and massive political failure when it comes to making the right decisions.


BenB

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3586 on: June 11, 2019, 01:31:30 PM »
Gerontocrat,

Your link says it's 50 MWh, whereas other news stories have it as 50 MW. It could of course be 50 MW and 50 MWh, but as reporters frequently get the two confused, I suspect that one or the other is wrong. I wish articles would cite both the power and energy ratings when talking about grid-tied batteries.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3587 on: June 11, 2019, 02:24:30 PM »
Gerontocrat,

Your link says it's 50 MWh, whereas other news stories have it as 50 MW. It could of course be 50 MW and 50 MWh, but as reporters frequently get the two confused, I suspect that one or the other is wrong. I wish articles would cite both the power and energy ratings when talking about grid-tied batteries.
The Scottish Power press release says 50 MW of battery storage.
The planning application says that as battery technology may improve, the actual capacity may be greater without increasing the size of the building housing the facility.

I can't find the tech specs.

Only a Government could have link address this long....

https://southlanarkshire.cmis.uk.com/southlanarkshire/Document.ashx?czJKcaeAi5tUFL1DTL2UE4zNRBcoShgo=YAT1sylou6n%2BzqiOdJ%2BonmAB7pp%2BEqMalwLDmhnGhXvzGY5POaz4MA%3D%3D&rUzwRPf%2BZ3zd4E7Ikn8Lyw%3D%3D=pwRE6AGJFLDNlh225F5QMaQWCtPHwdhUfCZ%2FLUQzgA2uL5jNRG4jdQ%3D%3D&mCTIbCubSFfXsDGW9IXnlg%3D%3D=hFflUdN3100%3D&kCx1AnS9%2FpWZQ40DXFvdEw%3D%3D=hFflUdN3100%3D&uJovDxwdjMPoYv%2BAJvYtyA%3D%3D=ctNJFf55vVA%3D&FgPlIEJYlotS%2BYGoBi5olA%3D%3D=NHdURQburHA%3D&d9Qjj0ag1Pd993jsyOJqFvmyB7X0CSQK=ctNJFf55vVA%3D&WGewmoAfeNR9xqBux0r1Q8Za60lavYmz=ctNJFf55vVA%3D&WGewmoAfeNQ16B2MHuCpMRKZMwaG1PaO=ctNJFf55vVA%3D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3588 on: June 12, 2019, 07:54:11 PM »
This article is all about how reduced payback for residential solar, being considered in many U.S. states, can make it less attractive and reduce the number of installations:

As Rooftop Solar Grows, What Should the Future of Net Metering Look Like?
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11062019/rooftop-solar-net-metering-rates-renewable-energy-homeowners-utility-state-law-changes-map

But yesterday, Tesla revealed that the next version of its Solar Roof would be cost-competitive with shingled roofs + a utility bill.  That lower cost would completely transform residential solar.  And utilities, too.
Quote
Dacia 15:08 PT:  Version 3 of the Solar Roof…Elon predicts cost being equal to a shingle roof plus electric utility bill. Cheaper roof, better economics… Elon has “banged the table” over making this happen. “It can be done!” Drew chimes in.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-2019-annual-shareholder-meeting-livestream-updates/
Tesla (TSLA) 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting: Live blog

Shareholder meeting vid here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Va5i42D13cI#
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3589 on: June 12, 2019, 09:49:19 PM »
Quote
the only viable pathway to American abundance and excellence
Classic GreenBAU. Ignore sustainability. Ignore resource use. Ignore the limits. Ignore those who already died. Ignore the rest of the world.



LOL. Where does that graph you keep posting come from?  It isn't even close to reality.

Compare your graph to what the IPCC states in the October 2018 report.

Quote
In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range). For limiting global warming to below 2°C11 CO2 emissions are projected to decline by about 25% by 2030 in most pathways (10–30% interquartile range) and reach net zero around 2070 (2065–2080 interquartile range). Non-CO2 emissions in pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C show deep reductions that are similar to those in pathways limiting warming to 2°C. (high confidence) (Figure SPM.3a) {2.1, 2.3, Table 2.4}

Your graph declines way too steeply to reflect a 30% decrease from 2010 levels and doesn't even go out to 2065.  Why do you keep posting it?
Link to the IPCC report:  https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf


Sleepy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3590 on: June 13, 2019, 09:10:04 AM »
LOL. Where does that graph you keep posting come from?  It isn't even close to reality.
<snip>
You don't remember?

As some has noted earlier in this thread, RCP2.6 is no longer attainable.
https://news.agu.org/press-release/new-studies-highlight-challenge-of-meeting-paris-agreement-climate-goals/
A short quote and snipping out the top image from the second study with Peters.
Quote
Stone, with the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said Peters’ study shows no one country can slip up in the goal to meet climate goals.

“It is hard to argue against their conclusion that we need to start seriously considering options such as the deployment of solar geoengineering, with all of the risks that entails, if the world is serious about achieving the Paris Agreement goals,” he said.

<snip>


Ken,

While I appreciate your perspective, it seems to be out of step with reality.

The first image below was recently tweeted by Greta Thunberg showing that pathways required to limit warming to 1.5C (see below). All realistic pathways rely on negative emissions, which will either require massive reforestation (which means limiting and reversing urban sprawl and other development), or carbon capture technology powered by non-emitting energy sources we currently do not have.

The second set of three images comes from Glen Peters, Research Director at the Centre for International Climate Research. It shows the required emissions reductions for 2C, or to meet the Paris agreement. It shows what is required by the rest of the world if India, China, the Euro zone and the US achieve emissions reductions consistent with Paris.

Caption: a) Global warming under 2 °C with a 75% probability, with negligible development of engineered sinks and land use change (LUC); (b) global warming under 2 °C with a 66% probability and negligible development in engineered sinks and LUC; and (c) global warming under 2 °C with a 75% probability, and with scalable development in engineered sinks and LUC.)

Please note three things, which Glen Peters also recognizes: 1) As far as we know, passing 2C of warming will make it very difficult to avoid catastrophic climate change; 2) The image assumes 2017 as a turnaround date. This did not happen (nor is it expected to happen this year), making the required reductions even more significant; 3) It is likely that the emissions pathways laid out are optimistic, since they rely on IPCC projections which have been proven to understate the risks; and it has recently been confirmed that emissions from the tar sands are up to 64% higher than reported (see https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/oilsands-carbon-emissions-study-1.5106809?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar). If this is the case in Canada we can expect that emissions are also higher than reported elsewhere in the world, meaning that we have already emitted more (and potentially much more) than assumed by these pathways.

Last month a "massive analysis" came out stating all of the above in a different way:

"The massive analysis shows that meeting the 2C target is exceptionally difficult in all but the most optimistic climate scenarios. One pathway is to immediately and aggressively pursue carbon-neutral energy production by 2030 and hope that the atmosphere's sensitivity to carbon emissions is relatively low, according to the study. If climate sensitivity is not low, the window to a tolerable future narrows and in some scenarios, may already be closed.

... If the climate sensitivity is greater than 3 Kelvin (median of assumed distribution), the pathway to a tolerable future is likely already closed."

Subsequent to this massive analysis, the preliminary results from the new generation of climate models -- which will inform the next IPCC report -- began to be released.

"Early results suggest ECS values from some of the new CMIP6 climate models are higher than previous estimates, with early numbers being reported between 2.8C and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C. The IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5) assessed ECS to be “likely” in the range 1.5C to 4.5C and “very unlikely” greater than 6C. (These terms are defined using the IPCC methodology.)"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-matter

The median given by AR5 was 3C (or 3K). The difference with the new models is represented graphically below in the third image.

As we are now seeing the new models are giving a value of ECS ranging from 2.8C to 5.8C, with a median of 4.3C.

So what is to be gained by assuming the lower risk scenarios, when, should you be wrong -- as I would suggest the overwhelming amount of evidence now indicates -- we expose ourselves to a tremendous amount of risk?

This seems to me the underlying message of ASLR's posts.





There's more in that thread if someone wish to read it.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3591 on: June 13, 2019, 02:07:31 PM »
Bifacial beats Trump’s tariffs

Quote
Federal trade authorities have ruled that bifacial solar modules are no longer subject to the Section 201 ruling, which currently apply a 25% tariff to most solar modules imported to the United States. This will save 6-9% on utility-scale solar power projects.
Link >> https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3592 on: June 13, 2019, 04:31:03 PM »
Japan is removing fixed feed-in tariffs for wind and solar that kept the cost of electricity artificially high.

Japan to overhaul renewable energy system in bid to lower prices
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Japan-to-overhaul-renewable-energy-system-in-bid-to-lower-prices
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3593 on: June 14, 2019, 02:02:53 AM »
...
But yesterday, Tesla revealed that the next version of its Solar Roof would be cost-competitive with shingled roofs + a utility bill.  That lower cost would completely transform residential solar.  And utilities, too.
Quote
Dacia 15:08 PT:  Version 3 of the Solar Roof…Elon predicts cost being equal to a shingle roof plus electric utility bill. Cheaper roof, better economics… Elon has “banged the table” over making this happen. “It can be done!” Drew chimes in.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-2019-annual-shareholder-meeting-livestream-updates/
...

Update:

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 6/13/19, 6:28 PM
Tesla Solar Toof Tile V3.0 starting early trials electrek.co/2019/06/13/tes…
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1139298574489907200

First look at Tesla’s solar roof tile technology with custom fittings
https://electrek.co/2019/06/13/tesla-solar-roof-tile-techonology-custom-fittings/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3594 on: June 15, 2019, 12:34:14 AM »
LOL. Where does that graph you keep posting come from?  It isn't even close to reality.
<snip>
You don't remember?

...


The graphs you post clearly don't match the what the emissions targets stated in the IPCC 2018 report.  The closest is the one labeled "C" in your second set of graphs.  Yet you post the one labeled "A" repeatedly.

Here is a graph that shows what emissions must do to meet the IPCC targets to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C or 2 C.


Sleepy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3595 on: June 15, 2019, 06:52:15 AM »
Why are you trolling and derailing several threads in here Ken? And please, I don't need to be informed on where to find links to IPCC, you should be aware that if you read my previous replies to you. Why don't you read the replies, particularly where those 'mysterious' graphs emanates from? Then do the most important part; read the sources and papers.

Especially the one in question, it's open access as well:
Global Rules Mask the Mitigation Challenge Facing Developing Countries
Xuemei Jiang
Glen P. Peters
Christopher Green
First published: 22 March 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001078

You obviously ignored the last line in my previous reply:
<snip>
There's more in that thread if someone wish to read it.

Another easy way to understanding that particular graph from the same thread:
<snip>
Glen Peters wrote a mini thread yesteday on this:
https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1126030557593382912

Emissions targets by Rystad?? A couple more replies on the real MAGIC(C):
Roughly twelve years late or so... Remember beeing highly annoyed a decade ago about scientific reticence. Still someone told me just a few days ago, that I can't say that RCP2.6 is dead. A trip down memory lane:

Hansen on scientific reticence and sea level rise. (2007)
https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha01210n.html

Van Vuuren from 2007 (a paper preceeding the RCP2.6 one from 2011...).
Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9172-9

Adding Fig. 3:  Global CO 2 -eq. emissions (all sources) for the B2 baseline emission and pathways to stabilization at a concentration of 650, 550 and 450 ppm CO 2 -eq.

Edit; also adding Fig. 12 from the Van Vuuren 2011 paper. Emissions for the IMAGE (IM) alternative RCP scenarios.




And:

RCP2.6 is dead and this planet will go past two degrees like nothing since almost everything we build today are built with fossil fuels. Attitudes must change since we can't create energy, so the only option left is to cut back consumption and use renewables and the electric transports we can afford, as wisely as possible.


Unless you know what's going to happen in the future, you can't say that. <snip>
I don't need the future, just IMAGE.  ;D

Edit; and Ken, all your four posts in this thread are off topic.



Here's the one from 2011:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
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sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3596 on: June 15, 2019, 09:24:31 AM »
I do not think Mr. Feldman is trolling. But i do agree that carbon trajectories ought to be discussed elsewhere. Is there a good thread for that, or should somebody start one ?


sidd

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3597 on: June 15, 2019, 09:29:20 AM »
Perhaps one of these threads

"When will CO2 emissions peak?"

or

"UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond"

both in the "Policy and solutions" section.

sidd
 

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #3598 on: June 15, 2019, 03:20:56 PM »
This somewhat fits in here.

CO2 not produced mustn't be generated.

Graphene 'super-concrete' could cut carbon emissions

Quote
A super strong and greener concrete has been created with the help of wonder-material graphene, which Exeter University researchers say could help tackle high carbon emissions in the construction sector.

According to the researchers, using graphene creates a concrete twice as strong as standard concrete and four times as water resistant. It would help lower carbon emissions as around half the normal amount of concrete would be needed for construction.

Graphene has been widely hailed as a revolutionary material due to its strength and flexibility; it is only one atom thick but stronger than steel.


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« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 08:22:02 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS