As we discussed in the oil and gas forum, there are renewable solutions for all of those natural gas uses.
What you say is of course correct, Ken.
What do you think is the timeframe until all sectors are converted to a CO2 emissions-free technology?
For transportation, most of the natural gas is used for compressors in pipelines that transport fossil fuels. As fossil fuel use declines, this use for natural gas will disappear. I expect that we will need far fewer pipelines for natural gas, gasoline and crude oil by 2050. I don't know how long they last, but it's hard to foresee any new pipelines being built after 2030 as natural gas use peaks and declines due to alternatives being cheaper.
For vehicles, the primary users of natural gas are buses. The infrastructure for compressed natural gas is expensive and there's the annoying tendency for CNG tanks to explode that deters new investments in them. Also, batteries have become better and electric vehicles are expected to be cheaper than alternatives in the early 2020s. Many transit systems have already begun to transition to battery electric vehicles instead of CNG. As buses can last 12 to 15 years, and some CNG buses are still being made now, expect natural gas to be out of the transportation sector by 2040.
For electrical generation, renewables plus batteries are already cheaper than peaker plants. Current projections have them being cheaper than operating natural gas by the mid-2030s. So expect natural gas to be completely out of the electrical generation sector by 2050.
Almost half of the buildings that will be in use in 2100 haven't been built yet. This is probably an underestimate as large portions of the population live in areas where sea-level rise (and other flooding from more intense precipitation) will force them to move. As more people transition off of natural gas the costs of maintaining the existing infrastructure will be shared by fewer customers, causing the prices to increase. Look for natural gas to disappear from building heating and other uses (cooking, laundries, etc...) by the 2050s, possibly even earlier, due to the combination of increased costs (even if carbon taxes aren't imposed) and outright bans at the State and local level.
Here's an article about how long buildings last. Keep in mind that even if the frame of the building lasts for 100s of years, the electrical, heating, roofing and appliances will be replaced when they wear out.
https://buyersask.com/structural/life-expectancy-of-a-house-will-it-last-100-years/Maintenance and up-grading
Older homes will generally have had their roofs replaced, new heating and air-conditioning systems installed, bathrooms and kitchens remodeled and plumbing and electrical systems upgraded. However, their basic structural bones, the foundation, footings and framing are basically the same. In areas with earthquakes and high winds owners may have reinforced the structural components to help withstand these forces.
Condo complexes, apartment buildings and high-rise structures often have shorter life spans than single family homes
The basic reason for this is that as components and various systems, such as plumbing, HVAC system, electrical systems and large dual pane windows become worn out or obsolete; and they cost more to replace or update than the value or wroth added. Imagine high rise buildings with large glass facades and dual pane windows where the large insulated glass panels have began to fail, where they have become foggy, internally streaked and have lost their insulation value which is not unusual after 20 or 30 years. Now think of the cost to replace and upgrade these windows and cladding; it can be astronomically expensive.
These type of buildings may last only 1/2 half or 2/3 as long a single family home and may be torn down
Here's an article about cities banning new natural gas hookups:
https://archinect.com/news/article/150162530/berkeley-s-natural-gas-ban-creates-a-chain-reaction-in-the-westWhen Berkley, California recently made the announcement that it would become the first city in the United States to ban natural-gas installations in newly constructed buildings, public took note. After the news broke, four other California cities established new rules to "encourage buildings to use only electricity," according to a report from Salon. Since then, more cities, such as Santa Monica, San Jose, and Menlo Park have made the change, as well. Several larger California cities are seriously considering such a ban, as are more far-flung cities like Seattle and Brookline, Massachusetts. However, why is there still a group of individuals against this proactive approach to helping mitigate better carbon cutting practices?
Nathaneal Johnson of Salon highlights, "The Berkeley ban outlaws gas in new single family homes starting in January. It will apply to the construction of larger buildings as soon as state regulators put the finishing touches on standards for all-electric buildings. Most of the other cities that have passed ordinances are taking a more moderate approach.
All of these estimated times could be significantly accelerated if a carbon tax were imposed. It seems like the public is becoming more aware of urgency of reducing our emissions and more politicians are embracing the idea of a carbon tax, or at least a cap and trade system, so it's possible that there could be one in the US in the 2020s. But even without action at the Federal level, I don't foresee (fossil) natural gas being used in any significant amounts in the later half of this century.
