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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4400 on: December 02, 2019, 06:06:07 PM »
Here’s their website — lots of October 2019 updates...

https://www.highviewpower.com/technology/

Nothing really new or exciting; it uses today’s LNG storage tanks, and requires normal amounts of energy to compress the air, but incorporates several thermal storage devices for waste heat from compression and waste cold from expansion/power generation.  They note one benefit is that using tanks means it can be sited anywhere, as opposed to underground cavern storage, for example.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

blumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4401 on: December 02, 2019, 06:53:52 PM »
Ah, that makes sense. Sounds good!
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4402 on: December 02, 2019, 06:57:16 PM »
Quote from: Archimid


Ideally, the grid would be completely decentralized, with each node paying or getting paid based on its supply or demand.

You are talking about a full mesh topology of decentralised resources.  I know, I used to design them for world wide systems.  We're talking computing here, not physical power, but the constraints are the same.

Each node is not equal and multi node to single node requires more infrastructure, as does single node to multi node.

If one node can power 1,000 others, then it needs 1,000 times the infrastructure to get to them. Equally 1,000 nodes powering one large node also have the same issue as their power comes together on the way.

Pretty soon you need a backbone and that is the grid and everyone needs to share the cost.

But now we have additional issues like cross border power delivery.

The EU has become the emperor of power in the EU.  But the EU is a gaggle of fiefdoms.  Just like medieval times, the roads of power lead to and between each fiefdoms major centres. Like arteries and veins, each fiefdom pumps power to the arteries but each fiefdom touches at the veins.

Build me a road, says each feudal lord and I will trade with all my neighbours. Give me arteries to each other and we will all share.

But nobody wants to pay to build the arteries, yet they all want to be paid for their goods which will be traded over them.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

nanning

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4403 on: December 02, 2019, 07:50:09 PM »
We have no money problems.
We have leadership problems.

We must change this capitalist civilisation culture. Radically. Now!
Most people are distracted (as here) from the extreme danger approaching and the extreme measures that need to be taken.

The problem to be tackled is nothing less than a fight for survival of the homo sapiens species.
Is cooperation still possible in civilisation?

Money (which is an abstract thing, not real) can readily be made available in large quantities. All the money you need for radical change.

Some options:

Stop fossil fuel subsidies
Stop Off-shore tax 'haven's
Nationalise all financial institutions
Nationalise all media and remove all advertising and branding in order to stop consumeralism, which is the main driver of emissions growth.
Stop with GDP growth steering the policies. We are in a crises. This is not a world war. This is much, much worse.
Raise income/wealth taxes significantly
Quantitave easing was used to 'create' trillions of euro's/dollars etc. Would you say saving the banks/growth is more important than survival?


Your children may ask why this was not considered

how strong has insanity become?

P.S. And please don't just save the rich children but save ALL children. Thank you :)
« Last Edit: December 02, 2019, 08:07:00 PM by nanning »
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4404 on: December 02, 2019, 09:00:04 PM »
Charging batteries at night when fossil fuels are supplying the grid can actually increase total emissions.  But with the right kind of data forecasts, smart charging can be timed to reduce overall emissions with only a very small increase in cost.

Climate change: California solves batteries’ embarrassing problem
Quote
The good news is, WattTime’s modeling found that optimizing battery operation around even a modest GHG signal led to a 32 percent improvement in emissions performance with less than a 0.1 percent reduction in revenue. A broader look at this same question (the trade-off between emissions performance and revenue) published in the journal Energy found that “marginal storage-induced CO2 emissions can be decreased significantly (25–50%) with little effect on revenue (1–5%).”
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/12/2/20983341/climate-change-california-batteries-emissions-watttime
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sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4405 on: December 02, 2019, 09:43:52 PM »
Re: Wonder how they keep the liquid air at low pressure and cryo temperatures for so long

Warning: trip down memory lane.

In one of my other lives as a fizicist, i dealt with cryogenics on a daily basis for some decades. I still do, now and then ... Back in the old days (say seventies) we were still using techniques from Kamerlingh Onnes lab in the first decade of the last century., essentially double walled glass dewars. The inner side of the outer wall and the outer side of the inner  wall were silvered, the space between the walls evacuated and sealed.

Then in the early eighties we got the New ! Improved! Dewars ! These actually were better. The consisted of a double walled, container, steel walls, with fiberglass lining inside the inner wall, silvered as before. But the space between was not empty, there was a giant roll of silvered mylar wound about the inner wall, thus providing thousands of reflective surfaces to impede radiative transfer at the expense of very slightly increased conductive transfer.

These were much nicer. For example, to get to 4K  (liquid helium temperature) we used to need two glass dewars, one inside the other, the outer one containing liquid nitrogen (77K). Now we didnt. And the time between LHe refills went to a couple days from twice a day, and we didnt need to deal with LN2 for the outer dewar, there wasnt one.

Things were not all nice of course. The mylar had a huuuuuge surface area, and prior to first cooldown we had to pump the space between the walls for many days to get out as much of gas adsorbed on the surface of the mylar as possible (we heated the whole thing to speed up desorption, but of course we never got the last two layers of adsorbed gas, but they were largely inert so it didnt matter) The good part is, if you dont fuck up, you only have to do this once during the lifetime of the apparatus. But is is possible to fuck up, and we did a couple times ... On one occasion we overfilled the dewar above the max fill line  (big nono) which broke the seal at the top into the evacuated space and let helium gas and air in ... what a mess. Took weeks to fix.

But we routinely kept liquid helium in 2000 gal superinsulated storage containers for months. At the temperatures of liquid N2 (which is the temperature for air storage) i can easily see this working even better. But i too would like to find out the actual round trip efficiency for the process.

sidd

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4406 on: December 03, 2019, 01:56:46 PM »
We are seeing a scenario unfolding right now where 8,000 homes have lost gas and the residents are being given electric heating and cooking capabilities.

Scotland has removed all FF from the grid, has 2.5GW of power from Nuclear and 2.6GW of Biomas from Drax power station.

Yet there are warnings being handed out about impacting the grid.

8,000 homes out of a country of ~5M people.

There are 27m homes in the UK, mostly heated by Gas.  Corbyn is promising to remove that by 2030.

It is idiotic statements like this that harm the overall renewable energy movement.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4407 on: December 03, 2019, 03:07:38 PM »
We are seeing a scenario unfolding right now where 8,000 homes have lost gas and the residents are being given electric heating and cooking capabilities.

Scotland has removed all FF from the grid, has 2.5GW of power from Nuclear and 2.6GW of Biomas from Drax power station.

Yet there are warnings being handed out about impacting the grid.

8,000 homes out of a country of ~5M people.

There are 27m homes in the UK, mostly heated by Gas.  Corbyn is promising to remove that by 2030.

It is idiotic statements like this that harm the overall renewable energy movement.

“The company said a fault in a piece of equipment that regulates pressure in the gas network was to blame.”
Thousands in Scotland left without heating after huge gas failure
https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/02/thousands-left-without-heating-huge-gas-failure-freezing-weather-bites-11255468/

Of course suddenly adding major electrical needs for 8,000 customers will “affect the grid.”  Sudden cold snaps also “affect the grid.”  ::) 

Gas will be replaced by sustainable electricity over the coming years due to incidents like this, plus refinery explosions, pollution, and simply the fact that new renewables are cheaper than running old fossil plants.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4408 on: December 03, 2019, 06:12:47 PM »
Sig, you miss the point.  Every time the UK increases renewables, we decrease the capacity of the grid by turning off more FF than we renew.

This squeezes spare capacity and then we see the issue that 8,000 homes can't switch from gas to electric in a short space of time.

How we are going to sell 4,000 or 10,000 EV per quarter, plus move 250,000, or more, new homes to heat pump and electric hob/oven, per year, with this infrastructure, is beyond me.  Yet these are the commitments made.

Apart from a stalled Nuclear plan there is little in the pipeline which builds confidence that the UK will be able to support these initiatives when dire t evidence proves otherwise

Decade on decade the UK generates less and less TW/h of electricity.  Yet the carbon reduction commitments will shift many TW/h-e of gas and vehicle fuel onto the grid.

Given the trend and the history, there is no reason for optimism.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4409 on: December 03, 2019, 06:32:08 PM »
Sig, you miss the point.  Every time the UK increases renewables, we decrease the capacity of the grid by turning off more FF than we renew.
...

Sounds horrible when you put it that way.  :o  But that does not account for: increased efficiency, time of use balancing, smart grids, industrial microgrids, and storage, to name just a few of the improvements that make such a simple calculation too crude for me to lose sleep over.   Doubting that if more electricity is needed, more won’t come on line, and/or usage won’t decrease, in new and various and quite acceptable ways, seems silly to me.  YMMV.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4410 on: December 03, 2019, 06:55:05 PM »
Developing countries are increasingly skipping the dead-end fossil fuel phase and going strait to renewables.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-01/dutch-company-to-light-a-million-nigerian-homes-with-solar-power

Quote
Dutch Company to Light a Million Nigerian Homes With Solar

Lumos Global BV, a Dutch company specializing in off-grid solar power, plans to light up over a million Nigerian households by 2025 as it expands in Africa’s most populous country of more than 200 million where only 60% have access to electricity.

Quote
The Amsterdam-based company isn’t targeting only rural areas that are not served by the electricity grid but also towns and cities where power outages are frequent and households rely, at least partly, on generators. Lumos’ offering of solar panels and a battery enables families to spend a flat fee of around $15 per month rather than three or four times as much on kerosene or diesel, according to Gordon. The company expects to sign up more than a million households by the middle of next decade, he said.

Quote
The grant for standalone systems is part of $350 million raised by Nigeria from the World Bank to increase electrification rates in rural areas. The largest portion of $150 million is dedicated to developing solar mini-grids.

The World Bank said last week it’s negotiating a $3 billion loan with Nigeria to tackle mounting debt in the power sector that risks the collapse of companies running the national grid.

“The REA knows that solar is the quickest way that everyone is going to get power as fast as they can,” Gordon said.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4411 on: December 03, 2019, 07:33:21 PM »
Sig, you miss the point.  Every time the UK increases renewables, we decrease the capacity of the grid by turning off more FF than we renew.
...

Sounds horrible when you put it that way.  :o  But that does not account for: increased efficiency, time of use balancing, smart grids, industrial microgrids, and storage, to name just a few of the improvements that make such a simple calculation too crude for me to lose sleep over.   Doubting that if more electricity is needed, more won’t come on line, and/or usage won’t decrease, in new and various and quite acceptable ways, seems silly to me.  YMMV.
Sig,

In the UK there is a yawning (ever-widening) gap between what could be done and what is being done and what will be done.

We don't have a rational energy policy - we have politicians bellowing about how much greener they are than the other guy.

We were doing well and then
- onshore wind was stopped (banned),
- the rooftop solar industry was killed,
- offshore wind projects are winding down.

Sounds familiar ?
- progress on Paris 2015,
- PG&E in Chapter 11?
- resistance in Germany to wind-power,
- Poland staying with coal.
- .......................

To repeat - there is a yawning (ever-widening) gap between what could be done and what is being done and what will be done
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4412 on: December 03, 2019, 07:40:40 PM »
Sounds horrible when you put it that way.  :o  But that does not account for: increased efficiency, time of use balancing, smart grids, industrial microgrids, and storage, to name just a few of the improvements that make such a simple calculation too crude for me to lose sleep over.   Doubting that if more electricity is needed, more won’t come on line, and/or usage won’t decrease, in new and various and quite acceptable ways, seems silly to me.  YMMV.

Well there is the fact that consumption has been dropping.  This is no surprise as new technologies help like induction  hobs which can reduce cooking power draw by 60%.

However that has been used to reduce the capacity of the grid, not to increase it.

I did a bit of digging around, as figures are hard to come by and came up with the ofgem typical consumption values for domestic properties.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/gas/retail-market/monitoring-data-and-statistics/typical-domestic-consumption-values

When you talk about shifting gas to electricity it is useful to know the numbers.

The lowest Gas profile is higher than the very highest Electricity profile.  The highest Gas profile is double that.

This is calculated in KW/h so simple to convert.

Gas is larger than Electricity consumption in UK homes, is required at peak times and is heavier in winter (when renewables are weaker), than in summer.

We haven't even begun to talk about Electric vehicles.  Vehicle fuel consumption is larger than the entire grid capacity.  Unlike Gas, vehicles can be scheduled for better hours and the consumption of EV's is lower than ICE, per unit, so we can assume that at least 25% of the energy will still be needed.

When we look at gas, the vast majority of gas is used for central heating.  Digging around for figures on efficiency of a heat pump is not easy

https://www.evergreenenergy.co.uk/heat-pumps/how-efficient-are-heat-pumps/

But you can get somewhere.  So we have to look at the climate.  In the UK most gas central heating is used in the winter and winters can be quite cold.  So Air-Air heat pumps, the most likely to be used on this scale, can reduce the energy consumption by somewhere between 50% and 75%.  Even if we go with the 75% figure, given the fact that the median Gas consumption is  around 4 times the median value for electricity class 1 which, I would think, is the most common then:

If we take 4 time the consumption and reduce it by 75%, we have to replace the entire load of every home which is currently on gas with grid power.

All with falling capacity.  Domestic heating does not fall into the same scheduling slot as vehicle charging.  All homes in an area will require the power at the same time.

These are things planners HAVE to factor in.

I see no evidence of it.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4413 on: December 03, 2019, 08:03:13 PM »
NeilT,

I think you have to add in consumer resistance to switching from Gas to Electricity for domestic (and industrial) heating

the (UK) average cost of electricity per kWh is 14.37p, and the average gas cost per kWh is 3.80p.

https://www.ukpower.co.uk/home_energy/tariffs-per-unit-kwh
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4414 on: December 03, 2019, 08:04:00 PM »
NeilT, gerontocrat:

A hypothetical, if you will:
Say the Democrat wins the U.S. presidential election in 2020 and immediately starts an all-out push for renewables and against fossil fuels, including industry help to make sustainable energy products cheaper and more widely available in the U.S. and globally...  do you think the U.K. would follow suit?
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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4415 on: December 03, 2019, 08:31:10 PM »
NeilT, i get the feeling falling supply is driven by shrinking demand. Once demand starts growing (because of EVs or heating) I expect supply to be added, with some possible fits and starts. But adding supply is (relatively) easy. I also expect grid-scale batteries to become quite commonplace in the next few years, helping to tie it all up and smooth the short-term hiccups.

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4416 on: December 03, 2019, 10:08:49 PM »
NeilT, i get the feeling falling supply is driven by shrinking demand. Once demand starts growing (because of EVs or heating) I expect supply to be added, with some possible fits and starts. But adding supply is (relatively) easy. I also expect grid-scale batteries to become quite commonplace in the next few years, helping to tie it all up and smooth the short-term hiccups.

Adding wind supply is mainly offshore and has a 5-10 year lead time given bidding rounds and actual build and deploy.  The builds are in phases and Hornsea is still being built out.  Nuclear has an even longer build time.

Solar is not a replacement for night time winter gas ch so can't even be considered as part of the solution.

As for batteries.  I did the math last year (or was it early this year), on 5 days sequestration of grid power.  And we are talking full grid power to replace gas in the home.  Unlike EV which would be around 50% to 100% of grid power at full EV take-up.  It is not even remotely possible.

EV are now supposed to be taking off strongly.  The UK has committed to no further FF vehicle sales after 2040 and carbon neutral by 2050.  No new homes can be built with gas CH after 2025.

Where is the power coming from??  Imagination apparently.

When you get to grid scale, you do not just "add power" when you get a one or two year high ramp up.  What you do is have rolling brownouts and a seriously fragile grid.

Gerontocrat is right.  Everyone thinks that being CO2 neutral is a winner at the polls for a portion of voters.  So they blather on about doing it but have no plan for how they are going to power it.

Witness the fact that the parties have started wittering on about "reviewing" IR35.  The Lib Dems have even said they'd scrap it.  That is worth around 5 million votes as everyone impacted suddenly realises who is going to lose their job.

But we're not that stupid.  We know they are lying on a whole range of fronts.  No plan for powering net carbon neutral, no net carbon neutral without hugely punitive costs and restrictions on life.   Chances of seeing IR35 gone?  Nil.

Roll on Dec 12th then we can get back to holding them to account for their promises.
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NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4417 on: December 04, 2019, 12:14:28 PM »

the (UK) average cost of electricity per kWh is 14.37p, and the average gas cost per kWh is 3.80p.

https://www.ukpower.co.uk/home_energy/tariffs-per-unit-kwh

I know gerontocrat, we haven't even touched on the fact that with the current power market, gas is massively cheaper than electricity.

Also the drive to CO2 neutral is pushing the short term electricity costs up, not down. Which increases resistance.

I can't see the stay warm initiative for pensioners doing quite so well without cheap gas to source the heat.

Promises need to come with a solid foundation of calculations to back them up.  Today, in the UK, we are doing "look after you leap" in the renewable energy space.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4418 on: December 04, 2019, 06:50:18 PM »

the (UK) average cost of electricity per kWh is 14.37p, and the average gas cost per kWh is 3.80p.

https://www.ukpower.co.uk/home_energy/tariffs-per-unit-kwh

I know gerontocrat, we haven't even touched on the fact that with the current power market, gas is massively cheaper than electricity.

Also the drive to CO2 neutral is pushing the short term electricity costs up, not down. Which increases resistance.

I can't see the stay warm initiative for pensioners doing quite so well without cheap gas to source the heat.

Promises need to come with a solid foundation of calculations to back them up.  Today, in the UK, we are doing "look after you leap" in the renewable energy space.

Isn't the high price of electricity due to the construction of new nuclear power plants like Hinckley C?  If the UK switched to renewables they'd find electricity prices going down.

Many utilities in the US have announced plans to retire coal plants well before the ends of their useful lives and switch to wind and/or solar with battery back up to save billions of dollars.

A new solar or wind farm can be built within two years of permitting and portions of it can be added to the grid before the entire farm is completed.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4419 on: December 05, 2019, 01:58:14 PM »
the (UK) average cost of electricity per kWh is 14.37p, and the average gas cost per kWh is 3.80p.

I know gerontocrat, we haven't even touched on the fact that with the current power market, gas is massively cheaper than electricity.

Also the drive to CO2 neutral is pushing the short term electricity costs up, not down. Which increases resistance.

I can't see the stay warm initiative for pensioners doing quite so well without cheap gas to source the heat.

Promises need to come with a solid foundation of calculations to back them up.  Today, in the UK, we are doing "look after you leap" in the renewable energy space.
Isn't the high price of electricity due to the construction of new nuclear power plants like Hinckley C?  If the UK switched to renewables they'd find electricity prices going down.

Many utilities in the US have announced plans to retire coal plants well before the ends of their useful lives and switch to wind and/or solar with battery back up to save billions of dollars.

A new solar or wind farm can be built within two years of permitting and portions of it can be added to the grid before the entire farm is completed.
There is no doubt that Hinkley C when completed is going to be a weight on the electricity consumer for the next 40 to 50 years. But it is not in the current tariff. We don't know if the UK Government will push any more new plants.

Existing nuclear plants are not - construction costs have been largely written off and now the taxpayer is being stuffed with the decommissioning costs.

However, electricity generation cost itself is much less than half of the electricity bill. Even though, unlike NeilT I believe that we will see some reduction in electricity generation costs as wind+solar+battery (and maybe tidal) form the basis of UK electricity generation, gas for heating will still be much cheaper. We have a Gas national grid built in the 1960s to the 1980s and apart from asset replacement all construction costs are written down through deprecation / amortisation.

The Electricity National Grid has to be redesigned and rebuilt for a massive number of sources of electricity generation and consumption, many with 2-way traffic from the existing grid of a few large power sources and one-way traffic down to the consumer. Who will pay for the legacy costs of dumping redundant structures and building new structures?

The people who run our National Grid say that there are existing practical measures that will allow the UK to run a 100% renewable electricity supply. But it won't be cheap and it is not a case of simply building solar + wind farms and having a big plug to connect to the grid.

Meanwhile, signs of new life in the UK renewable industry.  - Solar+Wind+Batteries

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/scottish-power-build-solar-panels-windfarms
Scottish Power plans to build solar panels beside windfarms
Quote
Scottish Power plans to squeeze more renewable electricity from its onshore windfarms by covering the ground beside the turbines with photovoltaic panels and batteries.

The wind power firm has applied for permission to build its first solar power projects beneath the blades of its existing windfarms in Cornwall, Lancashire and Coldham.

Scottish Power says it hopes to include solar panels in the vast majority of its future onshore windfarms across Scotland and Ireland, depending on whether the ground conditions are suitable for panels.

Keith Anderson, Scottish Power’s chief executive, said: “Every green megawatt of electricity will be crucial if we stand any chance of hitting net zero in 2050. This means squeezing the absolute maximum potential out of every clean energy project that we consider.”

The Guardian revealed last month that Scottish Power had kicked off plans for an expansion of onshore windfarm projects across Scotland in anticipation of an expected government U-turn on support for wind power projects.

The company’s renewable energy division has considered almost 100 sites in Scotland and Ireland for a new breed of windfarm that uses fewer powerful turbines and can be fitted with solar panels and batteries.

In some cases, adding 10MW panels and 10MW of energy storage could double the green energy capacity of small windfarm sites.
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NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4420 on: December 05, 2019, 02:09:33 PM »
Gerontocrat, I did say short term costs driven by renewable adoption.  Costs will drop, eventually, but not any time soon.

As the grid changes to support renewables then the energy producers (as opposed to the grid who do not), will take advantage of the changes to plug In more renewables as we see SSE doing.

But we have to remember that Scotland have access to 2GW of nuclear and 2.6GW of biomass from DRAX.  Renewables sit on top of this bedrock.

Given that the UK have about 8GW of Nuclear and Scotland has ~10% of the UK population, Scotland is quite Nuclear intensive.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4421 on: December 05, 2019, 08:08:14 PM »
Gerontocrat, I did say short term costs driven by renewable adoption.  Costs will drop, eventually, but not any time soon.

As the grid changes to support renewables then the energy producers (as opposed to the grid who do not), will take advantage of the changes to plug In more renewables as we see SSE doing.

But we have to remember that Scotland have access to 2GW of nuclear and 2.6GW of biomass from DRAX.  Renewables sit on top of this bedrock.

Given that the UK have about 8GW of Nuclear and Scotland has ~10% of the UK population, Scotland is quite Nuclear intensive.

There may be some intentional reasons for keeping the costs high, like to spur people to use less energy or spend money on energy efficiency projects.

In the US, some utilities were allowed to charge for the potential costs of building new nuclear reactors before they were even designed to offset the high costs of building them.  I think there are some counties in Florida that are still being charged for two new reactors that are still "proposed" but will likely never be built.  The utility company gets to pocket those funds until the inevitable lawsuit is settled.

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4422 on: December 06, 2019, 02:23:18 AM »
It should be pointed out that the UK is uniquely positioned at a very high latitude (50o-58o), plus a rather cloudy climate, with a high population and relatively low hydro resources. This makes solar a much less than ideal choice, even more so in winter, and leaves only wind as the efficient and cost-effective renewable contender. So there are certainly more challenges in the UK than for example Spain (36o-44o).
The good news is most of the world population is in much lower latitudes, and that UK economics don't necessarily reflect the typical situation.
Eventually I hope enough interconnects will be constructed to enable massive solar imports around Europe, though Brexit does cast a shadow over this (pun unintended...).

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4423 on: December 06, 2019, 12:42:28 PM »
Not just relatively high population Oren, population density, for England, where the majority of the energy is used, is high.

If we take relative numbers, the US has 92 people per square mile. Scotland, whom we consider sparsely populated, has 167.  England has 668.  Even then this is not as bad as the Netherlands who have a population density of 1259 people per square mile and have a fair proportion of farm land.

Energy costs are not artificially high in the UK, they are regulated by ofgem and have had their prices capped.  Every time they cap prices, standing charges are raised to penalise the low users in order to retain profits.

The UK energy market is also highly fragmented with  64 energy suppliers.  Since 2016 16 energy suppliers have gone bust and 5 have left the market and sold off their business to bigger suppliers.  Mainly due to caps destroying their business model.

This is not like France where you have one energy provider and it is owned by the government.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4424 on: December 09, 2019, 06:02:38 PM »
Turkey is projected to add 21 GW of renewable capacity in the next five years.

https://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2019/12/05/solar-wind-power-to-boost-turkeys-renewable-capacity-in-next-5-years

Quote
Solar, wind power to boost Turkey's renewable capacity in next 5 years
DAILY SABAH
ISTANBUL
Published 05.12.2019

Turkey's renewable energy capacity is expected to increase by 50% from its current 42 gigawatts (GW) to 63 GW by 2024, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Renewables 2019 report.

The surge in capacity will place Turkey among Europe's top five and 11th worldwide in terms of renewable capacity, the report added.

Quote
The country has enjoyed a remarkable momentum in the expansion of installed renewable energy capacity in the last two decades, driven mostly by hydroelectric power plants. However, the next five years will be marked by solar and power capacity expansion, the report said.

Turkey currently has a total of 28,2358 megawatts (MW) in hydroelectric power capacity while its solar and wind power capacity has crossed 7,600 MW and 5,400 MW, respectively.

Quote
Turkey is expected to add 10 GW of solar capacity by 2024 of which 3.7 GW will derive from distributed systems, namely rooftops. As a result, solar power generation is due to increase by 198% between 2019 and 2024, the IEA found.

Quote
"Our expectations put forward that solar power prices are very close to retail prices both in Turkey and most of the world. The solar power prices with the development of the PVs will see a further decline by around 15% to 35%. Those who invest in the solar PV particularly will see the drop in their electricity bills on the first day," IEA Analyst Bahar said.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4425 on: December 09, 2019, 06:17:23 PM »
Nevada is adding 1.19 GW of solar capacity in the next two years, allowing them to close two coal-fired power plants earlier than planned.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/06/1-19-gigawatts-of-solar-power-for-the-land-of-the-gigafactory/

Quote
1.19 Gigawatts Of Solar Power For The Land Of The Gigafactory
December 6th, 2019 by Tina Casey

Quote
The latest news about solar power in Nevada concerns NV Energy. The company has just won approval for a plan to add 1.19 more gigawatts of solar power to the state’s renewable energy profile.

Quote
The new solar additions will replace two coal power plants scheduled for shutdown. Last December, the state’s Pubic Utilities Commission approved a plan for NV Energy to retire one of the plants four years ahead of its former schedule, in 2021. The other plant will close in 2013[sic], pending approval.

The two coal plants, North Valmy units 1 and 2, have a combined capacity of 522 megawatts. They are the last two utility-owned coal power plants in Nevada.

That "2013" above should be "2023".

Quote
The 1.19 gigawatts in new solar capacity will be spread among three projects in southern Nevada, near the Las Vegas area. Here’s the rundown from NV Energy (condensed for an easy read):

Arrow Canyon Solar Project — 200 megawatts, located in Clark County, 20 miles northeast of Las Vegas on the Moapa Band of Paiutes Indian Reservation, developed by EDF Renewables North America.

Southern Bighorn Solar & Storage Center — 300 megawatts, also located in Clark County on the Moapa River Indian Reservation, developed by 8minute Solar Energy.

Gemini Solar + Battery Storage Project — 690 megawatts, also located in Clark County, on 7,100 acres of federally-owned land under the management of the Bureau of Land Management, developed by Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners in collaboration with Arevia Power.

What About Energy Storage?

All three projects include a copious amount of energy storage, including the Arrow Canyon project.

That’s what should really set gas stakeholders’ hair on fire. At utility scale, the solar-plus-storage trend is beginning to nudge into the natural gas space for 24/7 electricity delivery.


TerryM

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4426 on: December 09, 2019, 09:58:49 PM »
^^
And... Elon has promised that in 3 weeks GF1 will by powered solely by PV tiles installed and produced by his own GF2 facility!


In a now aged link from 2016 The Elon explains how the GF1 roof will be the Largest Solar Installation in the World at 70 MW. 7 times larger that the (then) largest rooftop solar installation.


https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-solar-gigafactory-2543158034.html


Contains an artist's rendition of the completed building completely covered in solar tiles, and a link to an article about Tesla offering their Solar Tiles at 800 Home Depot stores!


Terry

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4427 on: December 09, 2019, 10:52:27 PM »
Indeed Terry, it was a tad inconvenient having to focus on keeping the business going so there was still a factory to put the tiles on and a company producing the tiles.

But those are the breaks.
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TerryM

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4428 on: December 09, 2019, 11:02:16 PM »
^^
When all of the breaks all fold in one direction the game is fixed. ;)


Find a new table or lose your stake.


Terry
Formerly of Las Vegas, and witness to many fixed games. 8)

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4429 on: December 10, 2019, 03:01:55 PM »
Well either the game is fixed or the player is more competent than the rest...

This game is far from played out.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4430 on: December 10, 2019, 06:09:17 PM »
Here's an interesting summary of the state of the energy market and projections for near term market share.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Fastest-Growing-Energy-Sectors-Of-2019.html

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The Fastest Growing Energy Sectors Of 2019
By Anes Alic - Dec 07, 2019

Quote
Gainers:

#1 Renewables

The renewable energy sector has been on steroids over the past couple of years and is likely to stay that way.

According to the IEA Renewables 2019 report, renewable energy is taking the world by storm and penetrating the global energy system at an unprecedented clip. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), the US installed 4.8 GW of solar PV capacity in the first half of 2019 representing a 2.1 percent Y/Y increase.

About 38 percent of new energy came from solar, making it the second largest contributor to the country’s new energy mix after natural gas.

On a global scale, PV installations are expected to hit a new high of 114.5 gigawatts, a 17.5 percent Y/Y increase.

Quote
Overall, the future of global renewable energy is looking bright indeed, with the IEA forecasting that the sector will increase by 50 percent between 2019 and 2024, to reach 3,700GW. Renewable energy supplied 8.5 percent of the world’s energy needs in 2017 but that figure could reach nearly 30 percent by 2040.

And keep in mind, those projections are from the IEA, which consistently underestimates the growth of renewable energy.

Quote
#2 Natural Gas

Natural gas demand grew at an incredible 4.6 percent clip in 2018, with 314 million tons delivered, and the growth streak has extended to the current year driven by the ongoing transition away from coal-fired electric power, decent economic growth and weather-related demand amid a price slump of historical proportions.

Natural gas now accounts for 45 percent of the increase in energy consumption over the past decade.

Natural gas demand is expected to moderate though, with the IEA saying demand will increase 2 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent per year on average over the next five years, mainly due to lower Chinese consumption, which is projected to rise just 8 percent per year through 2024 after hitting 18.1 percent in 2018.

Again, probably an overestimate of natural gas demand in the next few years.  There's currently a glut and production in the US will cut back next year.  And China's economy appears to be much weaker than their official government projections.

Quote
Losers:

#1 Oil

The world’s oil fields have been pumping considerably less oil in the current year compared to the peak last year. According to Y-Charts data, crude oil production clocked in at 82.46 million b/d in August vs. 84.72 million b/d in November 2018, a five-year peak.

Nevertheless, this decline mainly came from OPEC producers, with the United States hitting a record 12.8 million b/d, the most by any country.

The US production growth was driven by debt-fueled fracking.  The shale patch is in dire shape as investors have stopped lending money and we have new bankruptcy filings every week.

Quote
#2 Coal

In the ongoing race to clean and sustainable energy, coal is emerging as the biggest loser.

According to CarbonBrief, global electricity generated from coal is on track to drop by 300 TWh, or 3 percent, in the current year. The biggest uses of coal are electricity generation, cement manufacturing, steel production and as liquid fuel.

Electricity production from coal dropped by 3% this year and it's only rated the second biggest loser of the year.  That tells you something about oil.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4431 on: December 10, 2019, 06:15:13 PM »
The linked article points out that large corporations can save a billion tons of emissions by going to renewable energy production.  In most market countries, and increasingly in other countries as well, many large corporations are able to do this by using Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to purchase their electricity difectly from a wind or solar farm.  So all of those pledges of companies going "carbon neutral" actually can make a difference if they back it up with a PPA.

https://www.mhlnews.com/global-supply-chain/more-renewable-energy-supply-chain-can-drastically-reduce-emissions

Quote
More Renewable Energy in Supply Chain Can Drastically Reduce Emissions
A gigaton (one billion metric tons) of emissions savings can be unlocked if key suppliers to 125 of the world’s biggest corporate purchasers increase their proportion of renewable electricity by 20 percentage points.

MH&L Staff Dec 10, 2019

The global supply chain is in a position to play an important role in reducing emissions.

A gigaton (one billion metric tons) of emissions savings can be unlocked if key suppliers to 125 of the world’s biggest corporate purchasers increase their proportion of renewable electricity by 20 percentage points, according to new research released on December 9 by CPD.

Research from the non-profit organization that runs the global disclosure system, report finds that currently, the average proportion of renewable electricity suppliers purchase makes up 11% of their total electricity. Increasing the proportion of the total electricity they purchase by 20 percentage points next year, (to an average of 31%) would cut a gigaton of greenhouse gas emissions in one year,.This would make a substantial contribution to the global effort to tackle the climate crisis. For comparison, global CO2 emissions from energy rose by around one gigaton between 2017 and 2018, from ~36 to ~37 gigatons. Put another way, a gigaton is equal to the 2017 fossil fuel CO2 emissions of Brazil and Mexico combined.

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4432 on: December 10, 2019, 11:53:19 PM »
This isn't news so much as a whinge.
Over the past few days the UK has had an amazing run of wind energy, so much so that a couple of nights ago fossil fuel use dropped fairly close to zero.

The main reason it didn't hit the magic number was our nuclear output is nearly 2GW down due to maintenance and repairs.

Very disappointing.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4433 on: December 11, 2019, 11:41:53 AM »
Well a fairly major storm will do that. It doesn't, however, bode well for replacement of core services with wind.  If it takes a major storm to remove FF power, the equivalent of that is about 10* normal production.

The really big thing I noticed was driving up through France.  Clearly the Normandy wind power was surplus and almost all turbines were shut down.  In the UK they must have been all operating.

That is a major change and indicates changes in the ability to route power from wind as the UK used to shut down the turbines too.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4434 on: December 11, 2019, 02:48:47 PM »
Well a fairly major storm will do that. It doesn't, however, bode well for replacement of core services with wind.  If it takes a major storm to remove FF power, the equivalent of that is about 10* normal production.

The really big thing I noticed was driving up through France.  Clearly the Normandy wind power was surplus and almost all turbines were shut down.  In the UK they must have been all operating.

That is a major change and indicates changes in the ability to route power from wind as the UK used to shut down the turbines too.
It's the new HVDC that now connects Dumfries to Merseyside.  More of the power generated can now be shared with the English Power network further south.

This is more that just a major storm, we've been running at over 8GW wind for a week.  I think this bodes very well as the wind has also been fed into storage that's covered 2GW during the peak periods.   A doubling of wind and the ongoing growth of storage will increasingly lead to FF being removed not just when renewables exceed demand but also through the roll out of storage.  The removal of Fossil fuel just for an hour is a milestone, just like the first hour without coal was a milestone in 2016. 

Correction: the new HVDC line is from Ayreshire to Flintshire opened in October 2018
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 03:09:10 PM by BeeKnees »

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4435 on: December 11, 2019, 04:32:57 PM »
It is good news, but with continuing gusts up to 100mph we can't classify it as normal weather. Also I was on a ferry Friday night, it is just as well that I do not suffer from seasickness. We have been experiencing an extended period of stormy weather.

The interconnects are exactly what we need though.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4436 on: December 11, 2019, 06:21:21 PM »
Rocky Mountain power just selected the contractor that will build two wind farms totally 750 MW.  Construction started this fall and both farms will be sending their power to the grid in October 2020.

https://www.windpowerengineering.com/mortenson-will-build-750-mw-of-wind-power-in-wyoming/

Quote
Mortenson will build 750 MW of wind power in Wyoming

By WPED Staff | December 11, 2019

Mortenson has been selected by partner Rocky Mountain Power to construct the TB Flats I & II Wind Energy Project and the Ekola Flats Wind Energy Project in Medicine Bow, Wyoming. The two projects are 20 miles apart and will have a combined wind energy capacity of
750 MW.

Quote
TB Flats I & II spans 44 square miles and will contain 132 Vestas turbines totaling 500 MW. Ekola Flats spans 29 square miles and will contain 10 GE and 53 Vestas turbines totaling 250 MW. Erection at TB Flats I & II is scheduled to begin in April of 2020 and Ekola Flats will start in June 2020. Both projects are scheduled to complete in October of 2020. Currently, foundations are being placed at both projects.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4437 on: December 11, 2019, 06:30:28 PM »
The University of Illinois will be solar powered, thanks to a PPA signed that will fund a new 12.1 MW solar farm to power the campus in Urban-Champaign.

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2019/12/sol-systems-university-of-illinois-solar-project-ppa/

Quote
ol Systems, University of Illinois sign PPA for 12.1-MW solar project

By Kelsey Misbrener | December 10, 2019


Sol Systems announced the execution of a PPA with Prairieland Energy, Inc. (PEI), a University of Illinois-related organization. This 20-year PPA supports the development, construction and operation of a 12.1-MW solar farm at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The system is projected to produce approximately 20,000 MWh of solar power annually and it will triple renewable energy production on the Urbana campus.

The PPA structure will yield cost savings for the university of approximately $300,000 in the first year and an estimated $5 million over the life of the project. Sol Customer Solutions (SCS), the joint venture between Capital Dynamics and Sol Systems, will design, build, operate, finance and maintain the solar farm for the life of the PPA.

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4438 on: December 11, 2019, 06:54:09 PM »
It is good news, but with continuing gusts up to 100mph we can't classify it as normal weather. We have been experiencing an extended period of stormy weather.

I think you are doing wind a disservice.
Wind has provided 17% of our electricity this year, 19% in the past month.
The recent windy weather has provided around double the average we get.  Your previous assumption of a tenfold increase is very wide of the he mark.

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4439 on: December 11, 2019, 07:28:35 PM »
17% is fine and roughly six times that would give us our power.  But you forget that 17% is average production.  We have had periods where wind has produced less than2% of our required power.

It is all very well talking %'s over a year but when you are in the middle of a week long wind drought, that is little comfort.

It is not a reason to stop doing what we are doing, it is a reason to plan for lower output and mitigate the impact.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4440 on: December 12, 2019, 05:56:59 PM »
Scientists find cheaper way to make hydrogen energy out of water
Quote
In research published in Nature Communications recently, scientists from UNSW Sydney, Griffith University and Swinburne University of Technology showed that capturing hydrogen by splitting it from oxygen in water can be achieved by using low-cost metals like iron and nickel as catalysts, which speed up this chemical reaction while requiring less energy.
...
UNSW School of Chemistry's Professor Chuan Zhao says ...
"What we do is coat the electrodes with our catalyst to reduce energy consumption," he says. "On this catalyst there is a tiny nano-scale interface where the iron and nickel meet at the atomic level, which becomes an active site for splitting water. This is where hydrogen can be split from oxygen and captured as fuel, and the oxygen can be released as an environmentally-friendly waste."
Interesting that this is a nanotechnology using 'regular stuff'.

My image of wind farms and solar arrays 'dumping' excess electricity into splitting water molecules just got a boost.  :)
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blumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4441 on: December 12, 2019, 05:58:57 PM »
Interesting that this is a nanotechnology using 'regular stuff'.

Yeah, nano stuff is normal stuff but very small. :P

This is good news, Tor. Thanks for sharing!
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NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4442 on: December 12, 2019, 06:40:25 PM »
Fine line, but key difference, between nano scale engineering and nanomachines.

Useful to know though.  So now we have enzymes that eat CO2 and emit the building blocks of fuel and we have nano scale catalysts for cracking hydrogen from water.

Sounds like putting them together creates a closed loop fuel system.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4443 on: December 12, 2019, 08:21:20 PM »
Batteries Will Change the Energy Industry Forever
Quote
Utilities are also seeing [battery storage] as a way to reduce transmission and distribution costs, and even put off investment in new power plants. Con Edison is using batteries as part of a plan to defer $1.2 billion in substation investments. And new bids from solar plus energy storage are beating the cost of building new power plants. ...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/11/the-moment-is-here-for-energy-storage.aspx
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vox_mundi

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4444 on: December 16, 2019, 05:42:14 PM »
New Solar Estimator Shows How Artificial Intelligence Simplifies the Estimation Process While Increasing Accuracy
https://www.solar-estimate.org/

DENVER, Dec. 16, 2019  SolarReviews, a Denver-based home solar resource company, released an AI-powered solar estimator on its website, Solar-Estimate.org. Also referred to as a 'solar calculator,' the cutting-edge software completely changes the way homeowners buy solar.

This product has emerged in a sector that is arguably the most difficult to generate online estimates for. Solar panel power output varies due to the specific characteristics of each roof, which include direction, angle, and available roof space. Once the panel layout is created for a specific roof, there is still the issue of several-thousand electric utility companies with even more rate plans to take into consideration.

Accounting for all of these factors is extremely complex and has meant that, to date, a consumer could not find the solar savings potential of their home unless they spoke to a solar company. This is no longer necessary, as a consumer using Solar-Estimate.org can generate an accurate estimate simply by entering their address and the dollar amount of their most recent power bill. It is amazingly simple, given the complexity of the factors that need to be measured.
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TerryM

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4445 on: December 17, 2019, 01:11:49 AM »
^^
It's certainly "amazingly simple", from a user's perspective. I wonder if it;s also "amazingly accurate"?


Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4446 on: December 17, 2019, 08:07:38 PM »
From my home state:
New Solar Program Could Save Thousands For Homeowners. Many Are Taking Advantage of the Potential $0 Solar Installation.
https://go.savingmoneyweekly.com/content/Lz0SRcdTm7WrESQ?cep=HNBRukBAEcoBSFXYVveYwNhIovCFKis7HL0sIxHhHAgmtyqFU4RXIyYdcbbUaJWDHq1gyO68pfseWvEDruDnsiPnuYZ3k8SoYznMbtj0W7qfN7aTbT-WkVNtBrAY-vmSjy_pD93qO8CNY_aeBIg6AuJi9kqq16ENTtUTDzXwaUDar8A9W3MczPEXJ02SyQMptvN30D4YDgw43N0tXIDab0riTYNEfG1a9xSZUhp2qBw9ejauj9yIjfcHWYbjW7eDU77t2pdVBAdwDBpq-gPDTGORvpmKQsIuuVcniLFpvtNDrpMc-KdT945lYieVlU-UsRpPoAeS3Q5Mea1xsKtabpwzV6T3nI0oOA0jwqxC63ybthog10wY3UyNxr31Y1bUAdHbzAtjs1Sd5y4QEHFspWf8pyy4BsS3_NKVeJ2CBiSFdpqzaZ0eInuvXxb1EH1tOhBfu6OyFJYah8nNlKc_vg&lptoken=15927699610313d811d0&widget=113220&boost=613564&content=4051948&advtarget=&site=newser.com&rev_campaign_id=613564&utm_source=engageim&rc_uuid=zkeHkmqqGQGBD0-RmRMzB2xOmOX6FmFGejr5wBOVGwJHd_BXDR6fPK3Ajq7_a86f_W8SzPwx3q8G24OhNhGwIbAOc7lHO8rYC9tE9Q83OLUdaFnac4kGRa7Jd1rr2N7fTaL0DduR0I86UVsegb9eyIotBVvHLW6gKiX7SpWbvqjhf3IF55uaHY5FTny88VKc
Quote
When homeowners visit the Official Easy Solar Savings™ Website to see if they qualify, many maybe be surprised to learn that solar panels can be installed on their home with no upfront costs after rebates and solar incentives. You can find out which solar incentives are offered in your area by using your zip code. You can even use this tool to help calculate your savings by entering your utility provider and your average power bill. In many cases, customers are saving up to 50% on the cost of powering their home each year.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4447 on: December 18, 2019, 02:00:21 AM »
New report from Pew Research Center.

46% of U.S. homeowners say they are considering home solar panels
6% have already installed them.

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Homeowners point to a variety of reasons for considering solar panels. A large majority of homeowners who have already installed or have given serious thought to installing solar panels say they want to help the environment (87%). And almost all (96%) say they want to save money on utility bills. A recent report also found that installing solar panels can increase a home’s value.

A smaller majority of homeowners (67%) say getting a solar investment tax credit is a reason they have installed or would install solar power at home. A federal tax credit for solar projects has been in place since 2005 and is available to homeowners in some form through 2021 for residential projects. ...
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/12/17/more-u-s-homeowners-say-they-are-considering-home-solar-panels/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4448 on: December 18, 2019, 06:36:12 PM »
The year-end spending bill in the US extended the tax credit for wind projects by one year.  The solar tax credit is down to 10% for developer-owned systems.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/u-s-lawmakers-hand-clean-energy-tax-credits-a-loss-though-wind-gets-a-win

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US Lawmakers Stiff Solar, Wind Gets Modest Victory in Tax Deal

Despite months of intense lobbying, the solar industry comes up empty-handed in end-of-year spending legislation.
Emma Foehringer Merchant December 17, 2019

 After months of lobbying, the clean energy industry secured minimal tax credit extensions in the $1.37 trillion end-of-year deal U.S. lawmakers eked out this week to fund the government in 2020.

Of the possible clean energy tax extensions that could have been stuffed into the spending bill, wind was the only winner, and the industry secured just one extra year of incentives.

If the full deal wins congressional passage, as is expected, wind developers can now qualify for the production tax credit through 2020 — a year longer than anticipated. Developers qualifying projects in 2020 will receive 60 percent of the PTC if they bring those projects online by the end of 2024. Projects qualified in 2019 will still receive only 40 percent of the incentive.

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Meanwhile, lawmakers left solar— the industry that most aggressively fought for an extension of its ITC — and electric vehicles out of the deal. Storage, which lawmakers had sought incentives for in legislation like the November GREEN Act, will continue without credits.

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An Investment Tax Credit extension through 2030 would have added 82 gigawatts of solar on top of baseline forecasts, offsetting 363 million metric tons of carbon dioxide over a decade — an amount equal to a fifth of U.S. electricity emissions in 2018 — according to analysis from SEIA and Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

For now, the ITC will phase down to a permanent 10 percent for developer-owned systems in 2022. Though an extension would have fueled growth, its removal will have muted impact on an industry that’s been preparing for its end. Increasingly competitive economics will continue to help solar spread.

“The industry may feel a bit disappointed by the exclusion, but honestly speaking, they weren’t banking on the extension to come through,” said Ravi Manghani, head of solar research at WoodMac. “It puts a damper on holiday spirits, but the industry will come back next year with very little lost.”

Wildcatter

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4449 on: December 19, 2019, 04:23:24 AM »
The year-end spending bill in the US extended the tax credit for wind projects by one year.  The solar tax credit is down to 10% for developer-owned systems.


Just a slight correction :)

Solar tax credit = 26% in 2020
2021 = 22%
2022+ = 10%

A little annoyed at the wind extension, since my education and first career was in the energy industry in TX. Solar is perfect for TX because of all the high demand, hot days that align perfectly with solar's generation profile, but since it's a "competitive" market, and PPAs are still the main vehicle for helping reduce risk in renewable installations (companies buy certain amounts of output, and electricity is cheap in a competitive market so developers + finance are hesitant to just play the market with solar since there really isn't a whole lot of precedent on big projects. playing the market is typically called a "merchant" project), the PTC has made wind extremely cheap in TX. $18-20/MWh, solar can't beat that yet, so all the companies who just want the cheapest electricity they can get, decide to just sign PPAs for wind offtake instead. That's why TX is going to have about 30GW next year (or soon after), and a criminal amount of solar, considering it's the fastest growing electricity demand in the US and reserves have been tight in the summer.

Was hoping with the wind credit coming to an end you'd see some of the 50-60GW of solar in the interconnection queue get financed. But, probably be a trickle in 2020 now. Oh well, silver lining, when solar does boom in TX, and it will, there will be a ton of wind (wind actually generated 22% of all TX electricity in 1st half 2019, there was about 30% of that amount of wind under construction or advanced development a couple months ago), and solar will be even cheaper. Won't even need "storage" for storage sake for a while, and the sheer amount of wind will help cover more of the 24hr load.

One reason wind got extended was undoubtedly because fossil groups much prefer it. Classic generators and interest groups in TX, who pay the pencil pushers 200k in the capital to lobby, don't want to give up those high demand daytime hours where they overwhelmingly meet demand and soak up the reserve adders (they get $7,000-$9,500/MWh when reserves are tight during TX summer days). Wind typically generates early evening through the night. Why yes, solar would be perfect for all of these days, and as much as people love to talk about "capacity factors" as some sort of detriment, even the modules currently installed are pumping out 80%+ nameplate during 100+ degree days. But, if wind is cheaper for companies to buy electricity from, it's hard to get a bunch of solar installed, currently anyway (finance + developer risk). TX is pretty unique in its market, but I wouldn't be surprised if similar factors were at play in other states, like the midwest. You get to say you're not against renewables, you get to be "pro business" with companies buying cheap offtake from wind, and you get to prolong all the classic fossil generators most profitable hours (and by extension, the fossil suppliers + pipelines).

But, 2020 solar credit at 26% won't change much. 2021 at 22%, maybe. It wouldn't if we didn't have such high tariffs disabling us from taking advantage of the ridiculous changes that happen basically quarterly in China. Hard to say, because if the orange turd is defeated, obviously it changes the game. On that note, hopefully whoever it is realizes is semi-competent and realizes rooftop is much more expensive than it should be. I actually am in the works preparing for something like that, as an energy professional turned software/web guy. I'll let you guys know if it works out  ;D . I'll give you a hint, "customer acquisition" can be 20-30% of an installation's cost to generate profits, and who really wants to plan to have 3-4 solar idiots coming to their place, not knowing if they're full of crap or not? Seems like it'd be much easier to have one person come out, and handle it like a real estate agent, using their expertise to find you the best deal. Solar companies can then pay the "agent" saving $$ on customer acquisition, at no costs to the person getting them installed. Solar companies already pay commission to their own sales teams. Design a web portal, keep tally of what companies actually do good work, in the future when battery costs come down or they want an EV charger, you can help arrange that too. On that note, if you have kids, electrical engineering/electricians in the future will probably have more work than they can handle, especially when EVs are common and solar panels are 500-600W, weigh 10 pounds, cost about $.80c/watt to install, and can get a rooftop install done before lunch with just a couple of hands, batteries become more common, smart homes, HVAC + appliance adoption/replacement.

Oh, and Ken, i do peruse this thread every so often. One thing that is drastically underrated, is petrochemicals. These are massive sources of emissions. And yes, the electricity game is changing (very quickly in the big scheme of things, but not quickly enough unfortunately, the convergence and material, computing/modeling age we're entering is going to be very interesting indeed, as well as the bi-directional grid and demand response adaptation of the grid. btw if anyone's interested in something neat, watch "perovskite" development.), however, as countries develop like SE Asia, demand for a bunch of stupid crap goes up. Look around you right now, look in your cabinets, petrochemicals used in production of material goods are all over the place. Electricity generation and transportation are two huge areas of the energy industry, and it's great that we're seeing them develop, but industry + chemicals is also a massive emitter, and "developing countries" consumption of these are going to increase.

Hydrogen as a feedstock is a no-brainer (which is why it's getting attention, you can also inventory it and fire it off in turbines for extreme weather events), but genetically engineered biofuels and recycling are absolutely 100% going to have to evolve.  You can't create matter from nothing, after all. And this is a major challenge. I only mention this because you seem genuinely interested, so maybe you feel inclined to check updates on developments in this area. If there's a "promising" outlook for this sector, it's that genetic research is advancing pretty quickly, and the nanomaterial arena like interfaces, handling, observable data, is leading to a lot of very interesting and novel catalyst research. And the computing + modeling (ML/AI), with the breadth of research data is helping things a lot. But, these are "musts", and replacing countries' established petrochemical value chain that powers cheap material goods is going to be a heavy lift.

Anywho, sorry for the long diatribe, i might post more if people want. Here's something fun, increasing silicon wafer size -> goes into solar cell manufacturing is an easy way to increase power. The biggest producer marginally increased size and wanted everyone to adopt it, so the 2nd biggest producer said, "DIS.. IS.. CHINA", and increased that size about 30%, so there's going to be a 500W utility scale panel in Q1-Q2 next year, thinking they can take it up to 600W. Wafer wars? Other producers will probably go up to that size, so no telling what the biggest producer ends up doing. 500W bifacial panel is a good chunk of power though. If you're interested in solar the trends over the next year or two are going to be wafer size, and interest in "passivated contacts". The rate of scale and iteration in China is unreal. Just for reference, in 2018 the average module from top producers was about ~340W, and a small segment of bifacial (~8-15% gain). 2019 saw 415-430W and a bigger adoption of bifacial, and 2020 will see plenty of 500W+ and bifacial will be pretty standard, all while the entire industry basically shifted to a specific type, monocrystalline PERC. Production lines are basically turnkey 5GW-10GW now. And there's still headroom from better quality wafers and passivation, like TOPcon, HJT (these are what's considered passivated contacts, because they use an "n-type" wafer, which is of better quality, but equipment hasn't evolved to be more cost effective vs the current ridiculous throughputs of the "p-type" PERC products, which managed to corner a 100GW market in 12 months).

Okay, i'm done  :D