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Iain

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4650 on: February 11, 2020, 10:48:18 PM »
Re. Burying the blades, I expect the volume of coal ash they displaced over their lifetime exceeds that of the blades many times over.
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4651 on: February 11, 2020, 11:13:34 PM »
The gridwatch figures don't include actuals for smaller farm turbines, typ 11-20 kW, only an estimate.
Do these count as generation side or as a reduction in demand?

As I understand it's the same as residential solar feed in, in that it reduces demand beyond the substation rather than feeding into national grid generation so the national grid see it as a reduction in demand.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4652 on: February 11, 2020, 11:41:54 PM »
Solar stocks are leading the energy sector while the fossil fuel stocks are lagging.  The reason is that solar plus storage is now cheaper than a new natural gas plant.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2020/02/11/warren-buffett-has-started-the-biggest-energy-revolution/#5c7ba0b24494

Quote
Warren Buffett Has Started The Biggest Energy Revolution
Feb 11, 2020
Stephen McBride

Did you hear the news about a “breed” of stocks that made investors the richest in 2019?

It’s not housing stocks, which enjoyed a record rally last year. It’s not even everyone’s beloved tech stocks like Netflix or Facebook.

This may sound like a joke if you’ve followed this sector for long, but the hands-down winner of 2019 was solar stocks. Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) ran up 51% in just a year, becoming last year’s best-performing ETF.

This ETF holds a basket of stocks that build solar parks, make solar panels and other components, all to produce solar energy. But let me tell you, last year’s 51% gain is just pennies compared to what’s coming.

Last September, Warren Buffett struck a historic deal marking the beginning of the biggest disruption in energy since the First Industrial Revolution. (It’s one of the few sectors I’m personally investing in).


Quote
If you are reading this with skepticism, I get it. A decade ago, green energy advocates claimed solar energy would soon power the entire planet. They said the world didn’t need fossil fuels anymore.

Quote
But the solar dream was way ahead of its time.

Back then, producing energy from solar cost at least 4X more than from fossil fuels. In 2009, it cost $360 to produce a megawatt-hour of electricity using solar. Natural gas cost just $70.

Quote
In all, the price of solar energy has cratered by 84% since 2010, according to BloombergNEF. And for the first time in history, solar energy is cheaper than fossil fuel energy, as you can see below:



Quote
While solar is one of the cheapest and cleanest sources of energy, it has one big flaw. It depends on sunshine.

A solar farm can’t produce enough electricity when it’s cloudy or dark. It needs efficient battery storage, which presents another problem.

Quote
MIT researchers estimated battery costs must sink to $20 per megawatt hour if we ever want to switch 100% to solar power. That’s a 90% reduction from last year’s prices.

Scientists expected this to happen sometime towards 2030. But it looks like Warren Buffett beat their forecast by 10 years.

Quote
Last September, Warren Buffett’s NV Energy company signed a deal with Los Angeles’ government to build America’s biggest solar farm. Last month, the project was also green-lit by the Trump administration.

The farm will span 7,100 acres in the desert outside Las Vegas. It will be backed by the world’s largest battery and power 6–7% of LA’s electricity needs.

Stunning scale aside, the most jaw-dropping thing is the price of its electricity. The plant will produce energy at a cost of $20 per megawatt hour of electricity—plus $13 for storage.

In all, the plant’s power will cost $33 per megawatt hour. That's half the estimated cost of power from a new natural gas plant!

And at $13 per megawatt hour, the storage cost is 35% below the MIT scientists’ threshold for the world to go 100% solar. Mark Z. Jacobson, a Stanford professor and one of the most vocal green energy advocates, tweeted on the news: "Goodnight #naturalgas, goodnight #coal, goodnight #nuclear."

kassy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4653 on: February 12, 2020, 01:34:41 PM »
Lets hope this gathers some (solar powered) steam.  :)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4654 on: February 12, 2020, 03:57:51 PM »
Have a read about it in the press articles.

The environmentalists don't want it and oppose it.  Oh, yes, they're all for solar.  On buildings, car parks, etc.

You can't use the desert, some tortoises might be impacted.

Never mind the fact that if we don't start covering the deserts in solar, the Tortoises are going to get dried out and burned up.

We talk about the liveable biosphere being destroyed.  Yet the environmentalists don't seem to realise that the first impacts of the liveable biosphere breakdown won't be humans.  It will be animals.

The more we do this, the more they will complain.  Eventually someone will listen. Then we won't get any more solar because the economies of scale don't work on a whole bunch of separate infrastructure.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

wili

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4655 on: February 12, 2020, 06:35:03 PM »
"Yet the environmentalists don't seem to realise that the first impacts of the liveable biosphere breakdown won't be humans.  It will be animals."

Congratulations for winning "The Stupidest Thing I Have Read On ASIF For A Long Time" award!
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

swoozle

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4656 on: February 12, 2020, 10:26:28 PM »
"Yet the environmentalists don't seem to realise that the first impacts of the liveable biosphere breakdown won't be humans.  It will be animals."

Congratulations for winning "The Stupidest Thing I Have Read On ASIF For A Long Time" award!

Yes, I have to agree.

/ignore

Ah, I feel smarter already.

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4657 on: February 13, 2020, 12:00:51 AM »
More about the Segmented Ultralight Morphing Rotor discussed in another thread:

https://www.sandia.gov/news/publications/labnews/articles/2016/22-01/wind_blades.html

a slide deck about controlling such a beast among other interesting things:

https://www.slideshare.net/sandiaecis/dana-martindaniel-zalkind-50-mw-segmented-ultralight-morphing-rotor-sumr-design-concept-and-controls-strategies

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4658 on: February 13, 2020, 04:33:47 PM »
U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions lowered in 2019: report
February 11, 2020
Quote
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. fell 2.9 percent last year, according to a report published Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) found that the U.S. decline was the largest, at 140 million tonnes, of any country. It also noted that since 2000, U.S. emissions have decreased nearly one gigatonne.

"A 15% reduction in the use of coal for power generation underpinned the decline in overall US emissions in 2019," the report said.

Globally, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions flatlined at about 33 gigatonnes following two years of increases.

The IEA attributed that to fewer emissions from the power sector in advanced economies because of "the expanding role of renewable sources" as well as "fuel switching from coal to natural gas and higher nuclear power output."
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/482601-us-energy-related-carbon-dioxide-emissions-lowered-in-2019-report
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4659 on: February 13, 2020, 07:28:42 PM »
U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions lowered in 2019: report
February 11, 2020
Quote
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. fell 2.9 percent last year, according to a report published Tuesday.

Globally, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions flatlined at about 33 gigatonnes following two years of increases.

"Big deal" answered the climate.
"And if we were in an El Nino?" asked I.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/13/january-hottest-earth-record-climate-crisis
Earth just had hottest January since records began, data shows
Average global temperature 2.5F above 20th-century average
Antarctic has begun February with several temperature spikes
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4660 on: February 13, 2020, 08:54:59 PM »
The interim global CO2 growth figure for 2019 is 2.94.  It will be updated on March 5th with December figures and it will fall slightly.

That is not the story.  The story is that this level of growth is unprecedented for a non Nino year.

So much for all our Renewable efforts...

Renewables are sexy and can call down votes and make good headlines.  But reality is that we need to be talking CO2 neutral/negative and that one has gone out the window.

We need to stop emitting CO2 first and it doesn't really matter, for now, how we do that.

We need the space to grow our renewables to the point where we can replace the less desirable methods with renewables.

But the marked lack of pragmatism in the climate lobby is letting CO2 run away.

As we used to say int the army, put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.

Because we are failing.

Badly.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

wili

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4661 on: February 14, 2020, 01:54:14 AM »
Well put, sadly.  :-\
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Jim Hunt

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4662 on: February 15, 2020, 10:11:02 PM »
Lisa the LEAF and I braved the worst that Storm Dennis could throw at us earlier today.

Our first video report, from the ridge above the North Cornish seaside:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4663 on: February 16, 2020, 02:42:49 AM »
Tesla Steps Into The Utility Space With New Grid Controller Patent
February 14th, 2020
Quote
Tesla Developing A Scalable Whole-House Energy Management System: New Grid Controller Manages Production, Storage, & Consumption
This week, Tesla locked in a new patent for a distributed electrical grid management system, with capability to control everything from massive grid-scale energy storage installations down to your washing machine to keep everything humming along nicely.

The new patent is a natural extension of Tesla’s Grid Controller solution that manages grid-scale assets, but the new solution takes it a step further by folding in Tesla’s in-home solutions, and then some. The result proposed in the new patent is an end-to-end distributed grid management system with the capability to identify and manage assets on the grid, in businesses, and in homes as a means of balancing the grid more effectively. It leverages each asset on the grid as a part of the overall system.
...
Creating a standardized communication protocol to allow utilities to have bi-directional communication with appliances in the homes of customers is a game changer for homeowners and utilities. This new patent lays out the blueprint for how that could work and speaks to Tesla’s direction with its future grid and in-home products. Tesla is already playing in the grid services space, but this takes the capability to a new level, with even more potential revenue opportunities.
...
The washing machine may strike some as a curious inclusion, but it is actually a very insightful one. If Tesla would have simply used electric vehicles as the example of the load devices, the entire system could be implemented with no new hardware. Stretching beyond high-usage items like HVAC systems, pool heaters, EV chargers, and electric dryers to washing machines speaks to the scope of loads Tesla is looking to optimize.

Imagine dropping a load of laundry into the washing machine and simply letting the house decide when it was cheapest/best for the grid/lowest emissions to run it? At its core, the solution simply takes demand response to the next logical level by extending it deep into the home. Rolling all of these load devices into a larger system that not only sees grid assets but the ability to dynamically manage them is immensely powerful. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/14/tesla-steps-into-the-utility-space-with-new-grid-controller-patent/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

interstitial

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4664 on: February 16, 2020, 03:20:14 AM »
I have been busy reducing my carbon foot print and saving money. We were using propane to heat the house and cooking. I shut that off and switched to a heat pump. I added two inches of foam insulation when I redid the house siding and got new windows. I used to spend $2400 a year on energy now based on one months usage it should be $650 a year.


That is all electric usage and since my utility was 81.03% hydro, 9.99% nuclear, 6.39% wind, 2.58% biomass methane and petroleum, 0.01% natural gas. So 97.41% carbon free and some of that 2.58% is biomass. Further my utility buys renewable energy credits and retires them for all fossil fuel energy they produce.


The house needed new siding anyway so I don't count that but I do count the insultation with all the utility rebates I received I spent about $2000 plus my time to get there. My heat pump only cost me $50 installed.

Iain

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4665 on: February 16, 2020, 08:02:03 AM »
@ BeesKnees

Unmetered (embedded) Wind energy will not appear as generation, only as reduced demand.

Solar is displayed as an estimate.

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

confusingly they say "   There is no central recording of Solar Generation. This figure is an estimated figure which comes from Sheffield University. This value is now included in the Demand figure"

Yet they show solar as Production in their graphs?!

https://gridwatch.co.uk/Solar

I sent a query to GW
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4666 on: February 16, 2020, 12:29:19 PM »
confusingly they say "   There is no central recording of Solar Generation. This figure is an estimated figure which comes from Sheffield University. This value is now included in the Demand figure"

Yet they show solar as Production in their graphs?!
https://gridwatch.co.uk/Solar

This may help
Quote
Sheffield Solar has been analysing the performance of operational solar PV systems in the UK since 2010. They now provide National Grid with solar outturn data for their control room. National Grid need this as solar is embedded in the distribution network so its outturn data is not available to the system operator. Sheffield Solar’s analysis combines generation data from around 20,000 systems with installed capacity data to give GB national solar outturn. They also provide PV_Regional, a regional PV outturn and short term PV forecast services (PV_Forecast). The regional forecast is used for understanding where pinch points may occur on the grid, while PV_Forecast is used by energy industry stakeholders to anticipate future demand, accounting for solar
https://www.mygridgb.co.uk/about/

https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/

Iain

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4667 on: February 16, 2020, 01:12:19 PM »
Gridwatch replied:

"The demand figure from Elexon does not include solar so it is added to get a better estimate of total demand."

So the estimate for solar comes from  Sheffield and is presented as a separate graph.

It is also added to demand, because Solar reduces demand as seen from the dispatch point of metered sources.
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4668 on: February 18, 2020, 02:56:35 PM »
UK Blah-blah
- "net-zero carbon by 2050,
- World Leader in reducing CO2 emissions,
etc, etc.....

UK REALITY
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/18/renewables-barely-feature-building-programme-schools-solar-panels
Renewables barely feature in building programme for 500 schools
Quote
only a handful of the 500-plus schools being rebuilt or refurbished across the county through the government’s £4.3bn priority school building programme are installing renewable energy technology – and the Department for Education’s (DfE’s) recommended designs do not include renewables.

The pathetic bunch of clowns who presume to govern the UK for the next 5 years just don't get it. This oven-ready climate emergency can't be solved with a jolly catch-phrase.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4669 on: February 18, 2020, 05:15:48 PM »
But the pathetic bunch of clowns are not voted in.  They are the civil servants who implement the policies.

Regardless of the government in power, the same clowns are on the sharp end.

What differentiates the different administrations is how effective they are at anticipating and managing the clowns.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

philopek

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4670 on: February 18, 2020, 05:37:27 PM »
But the pathetic bunch of clowns are not voted in.  They are the civil servants who implement the policies.

Regardless of the government in power, the same clowns are on the sharp end.

What differentiates the different administrations is how effective they are at anticipating and managing the clowns.

You're touching a very crucial and too rarely mentioned point here. Since the topic goes deep and would have to be analyzed and discussed at length that's all what i'm going to say here and that there will never enough people at the same end of the rope:

a) understand the mechanisms in the first place

b) pull the rope from the same end to achieve a change without serious consequences, means
.   we shall continue to run from disaster into the next disaster, from the rain into torrential events .   and ultimately into wars and and violent encounters of various kinds.

I'm glad you mentioned this, it's necessary from time to time to mentione who run's the show and the next step would be to unveil the motives behind, a lot of hypocrisy involved albeit not something new at all ;)

rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4671 on: February 18, 2020, 06:51:44 PM »
An apt song, send in the clowns - Don't you love farce? My fault, I fear. I thought that you'd want what I want. Sorry, my dear!

Isn't it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air,
Where are the clowns?

Isn't it bliss?
Don't you approve?
One who keeps tearing around,
One who can't move,
Where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns?

Just when I'd stopped opening doors,
Finally knowing the one that I wanted was yours
Making my entrance again with my usual flair
Sure of my lines
No one is there

Don't you love farce?
My fault, I fear
I thought that you'd want what I want
Sorry, my dear!
But…


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4672 on: February 18, 2020, 10:13:11 PM »
Meanwhile, in renewable energy news, Africa is increasingly turning to wind power.

https://qz.com/africa/1803714/south-africa-turning-to-windpower-as-eskom-blackouts-linger/

Quote
More of Africa’s leading economies are already looking to wind to power their homes
February 17, 2020
Yomi Kazeem

Quote
Last year, led by Egypt, Morocco and Ethiopia, countries in Africa and the Middle East installed nearly 900 megawatts of wind power, recent data from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) shows. But that’s just a start as the rate of wind power installation is projected to accelerate over the next five years: GWEC projects 10.7 gigawatts of wind energy capacity will be installed across both regions by 2024.

South Africa, the continent’s most advanced economy, will lead the drive for wind power installations with an additional 3.3 gigawatts added to its energy capacity by 2024. South Africa’s urgent recourse to wind power is likely linked to its ongoing problems with the state power utility as electricity blackouts have become increasingly normal. Like in several other African countries, South Africa’s problems are rooted in being unable to expand electricity infrastructure quickly enough to cope with population growth and demand.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4673 on: February 18, 2020, 10:21:26 PM »
In Texas, there's so much natural gas being produced that the price for it is often negative, producers have to pay someone to take it away (it contaminates the oil they'd like to sell).  However, even at negative prices, natural gas can't compete with solar.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Texas-to-build-more-solar-wind-batteries-than-15062905.php

Quote
Solar, wind and batteries expected to outpace new gas-powered generation in Texas
Feb 18, 2020

Texas is increasingly moving away from power generated by natural gas, the backbone of the state's electricity system and which supplies about half of the state's generating capacity.

Solar power is emerging as the state's fastest growing electricity source, according to the state grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Solar developers are expected to install about 68 gigawatts of solar power capacity, representing 61 percent of the power projects expected to come on the grid between now and 2023. One gigawatt provides enough power for about 700,000 homes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4674 on: February 27, 2020, 04:55:26 PM »
Solar Power Just Miles from the Arctic Circle? In Icy Nordic Climes, It’s Become the Norm
Quote
OULU, Finland — For years after northern Finland's largest printing plant blanketed its facility's eight roofs with solar panels, the curious beat a path to the extraordinary spectacle.

There were skeptics who doubted that solar power would pay off in this northern city, just 100 miles shy of the Arctic Circle, a geography known not for its sunny climes but rather its dark, snow-bound, sub-zero winters.
...
The Finns also swear by vertical PV installations. These are walls—usually southward-facing facades—composed of hundreds of collectors that turn buildings into vertical power generators. The solar walls' angle and location maximizes the rays of the Finnish winter's low-slung sun, as well as light's reflection off the snow. Kaleva Media's downtown office building sports a solar wall, as does the city's power plant.

The printing plant has another tip to pass on to fellow northerners enticed by solar. There's no consensus in the north country about clearing snow from panels: Some do it, some don't. Kaleva decided that removing the prodigious winter snow from the rooftop PV field was not worth the cost. But in its second year of operation, it discovered that the weight of three feet of soggy springtime snow caused several of the panels' aluminum frames to collapse. Come spring, however, even though the affected modules were a bit mangled and skewed, they continued generating electricity. Frameless modules, according to some experts, may be the way to go in frozen dominions.
...
In the Nordic countries' foray into solar PV, there are more than a few takeaways for North America.

For one, solar technology has come so far—today's PV cells are many times more efficient than those of a decade ago—that the deployment of solar makes sense in most of the world. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22022020/solar-finland-nordic-renewables-sanna-marin-climate-targets-turku
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sesyf

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4675 on: February 29, 2020, 11:59:30 AM »
At Oulu’s latitude the summer days are a lot longer so electricity from solar panels. Day length sort of compensates for winter darkness... if that summertime electricity could be stored with reasonable cost it would be Very Good Thing. Not that I’m holding my breath waiting.

rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4676 on: February 29, 2020, 06:43:41 PM »
Is it windy at Oulu in the winter, maybe they could diversify their renewables?

interstitial

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4677 on: March 01, 2020, 01:07:20 AM »

I was thinking anti solar would work but after rereadiing the article I realized it uses the temperature fluctuations in the day night cycle. So it would work best in places with strong solar resources.https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-solar-panels-could-soon-be-generating-power-at-night/amp

NeilT

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4678 on: March 01, 2020, 01:43:41 PM »

I was thinking anti solar would work but after rereadiing the article I realized it uses the temperature fluctuations in the day night cycle. So it would work best in places with strong solar resources.https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-solar-panels-could-soon-be-generating-power-at-night/amp

Or you could capture heat with a thermal store during the day and heat the panels at night, creating a larger heat differential.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4679 on: March 01, 2020, 02:23:14 PM »
California
The project will store solar and wind energy, and feed it to the power plant much like the highly successful Big Battery in Hornsdale, Australia — which itself is currently undergoing expansion.

Tesla Megapack Battery Installation Approved for Moss Landing, Will Be One Of Largest In the World
Feb 26, 2020
Quote
The project is poised to be one of the largest energy storage facilities in the world. Tesla and PG&E are scheduled to break ground on the project next month, with the system expected to be entirely finished by the end of this year. ...
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-megapack-battery-installation-moss-landing-tesla-energy
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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4680 on: March 01, 2020, 03:20:49 PM »
US Energy Consumption to November 2019 - 12 Month Trailing Average data.
Data Source : Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/


The first graph is for the optimists... Wind & Solar Power increasing.

The second shows primary energy consumption by source. Shows
- wind & solar have a long way to go,
- petroleum products still the largest source of energy, need a few million more EVs (or Global Recession?)
- natural gas quickly catching up,
- coal quickly declining.

The third graph compares electricity generation from solar+wind with coal+gas. Nuleasr+biomass excluded for simplicity.

The fourth graph shows that just 40% of natural gas consumed is used for electricity generation. Energy for homes, industry & commerce consume 60%. The switch to renewables is currently mostly only affecting electricity generation.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4681 on: March 01, 2020, 04:54:09 PM »
OECD Electricity Production to November 2019 - Monthly data.
Data Source : IEA - https://www.iea.org/reports/monthly-oecd-electricity-statistics

In theory (ha ha) the OECD countries are leading the charge to renewables. They've got the technology, they've got the loot.

Given that electricity production is merely one of the uses of primary energy from fossil fuels (transportation, home heating, commerce & industry etc), the graphs attached suggest that only a truly disastrous Covid-19 outbreak (& a couple more) is going to reduce fossil fuel use by nearly half by 2030.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4682 on: March 01, 2020, 07:09:20 PM »
Quote
Given that electricity production is merely one of the uses of primary energy from fossil fuels (transportation, home heating, commerce & industry etc), the graphs attached suggest that only a truly disastrous Covid-19 outbreak (& a couple more) is going to reduce fossil fuel use by nearly half by 2030.

But as the economy slows due to Covid-19 and what looks like a significant recession, less electricity, less transportation, commerce and industry energy will be needed.  Where there are options, the energy source of choice will be cheaper renewables.  It’s unlikely fossil fuel use will rebound to previous levels afterward.  The more coal and oil companies that go bankrupt, the more attractive the switch will be.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4683 on: March 05, 2020, 07:20:14 PM »
For the first time ever, renewable power generation growth increased at a faster rate than overall power demand growth in 2019!  The end of the fossil fuel era has begun.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-electricity-fossilfuel-decline/fossil-fuels-for-power-at-turning-point-as-renewables-surged-in-2019-data-idUSKBN20R0HU

Quote
Fossil fuels for power at turning point as renewables surged in 2019: data
Aaron Sheldrick

TOKYO (Reuters) - The use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil for generating electricity fell in 2019 in the United States, the European Union and India, at the same time overall power output rose, a turning point for the global energy mix.

Quote
The data also indicates that renewable power generation increased at a faster rate than the overall growth in power output for the first time, rising by 297 TWh versus 233 TWh for overall output, Kaberger said.

“It is economics driving this as low-cost renewable electricity outcompetes against fossil and nuclear power plants,” said Kaberger.

With electric vehicle usage surging and their batteries being increasingly recharged by renewable electricity supplies the decline of fossil fuels is likely to accelerate, he said.

“New renewables are even cheaper than oil per unit of energy electricity generated and even fuels produced from electricity will outcompete against fossil fuels at increasing speed in transport, heating and industry,” he said.

“Peak oil demand is close,” Kaberger said.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4684 on: March 05, 2020, 07:25:04 PM »
While renewables are already cheaper than fossil fuels there is still room for innovation to continue to lower their costs.  Here's an article about new solar panels that will make utility scale and commercial systems less expensive to install.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/03/05/how-will-the-new-generation-of-500-watt-panels-shape-the-solar-industry/

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How will the new generation of 500 watt panels shape the solar industry?

With three models of 500-watt solar panels officially unveiled, here’s a look at what that means for the future of project development and the solar industry at large.

March 5, 2020

There are two solar module manufacturers, Risen Energy and Trina Solar, that have unveiled first-of-their kind 500W, 72-cell PV modules.

How will the advent of 500-watt solar modules change the solar industry?

“For applications where you have a lot of area, particularly commercial and especially utility-scale, it’s really significant,” CEO of Cinnamon Energy Systems Barry Cinnamon told pv magazine. “You could just use fewer modules, it reduces handling costs and overall balance-of-system costs go down.”

If there are less modules needed to reach the capacity specifications of a project, that means overall project costs will go down as these modules become economically viable. A significant area that will see cost reduction will come from the racking and trackers.

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The consensus among the installers interviewed by pv magazine was that the average module installed checks in at 380W. This means that Trina and Risen’s panels deliver around 31% more power than the average installed panel. Cinnamon said that 10 years ago, the average module output was about 250W.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4685 on: March 09, 2020, 06:52:39 PM »
Wind and solar provided 50% of Germany's electricity in February.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/06/wind-energy-leads-germany-to-renewable-energy-record-in-february/

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Wind Energy Leads Germany To Renewable Energy Record In February
March 6th, 2020 by Steve Hanley

According to Renew Economy, German has set higher daily or weekly records in the past, but February of 2020 set the record for an entire month. “Of the total 45.12TWh generated by Germany’s power sector, 27.63TWh, or 61.2%, was generated from renewable electricity sources. Throughout the month, Germany’s renewable energy sector regularly provided around 60% or above of the country’s electricity production – including over a dozen days around or above 70%,” RE writes.

Wind turbines were by far the largest contributor to all that renewable energy, generating a record 20.80 TWh, or 45.8%, of the country’s electricity. That smashed the previous record of 34.7% in March of 2019. In second place was not solar, as you might expect, but biomass with 3.74 TWh or 8.3% of the total. Solar was third with 1.86 TWh, or 4.2%. Natural gas provided 10.2% of February’s total, while nuclear provided 11.5%. Coal — both soft and hard — provided only 17% of the country’s power in February.

blumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4686 on: March 09, 2020, 07:00:42 PM »
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4687 on: March 09, 2020, 09:06:24 PM »
Scotland to reach NET 100% Renewable energy by end of 2020

https://www.goodnet.org/articles/scotland-will-reach-100-renewable-energy-in-2020
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4688 on: March 18, 2020, 06:08:59 PM »
The IEA, formerly so deep in the fossil fuel industry's pockets that it couldn't see the sun, much less acknowledge the actual growth of solar power, is now calling for any stimulus package to address the recession caused by Covid-19 to include green energy.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/IEA-Calls-For-Emergency-Clean-Energy-Aid-Package.html

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IEA Calls For Emergency Clean Energy Aid Package
By Nick Cunningham - Mar 17, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly trigger a global economic recession, and the recession may have already started with major economies grinding to a standstill.

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The short-term emergency is obvious, and Washington is moving quickly to provide emergency help. But the economic damage could linger, likely necessitating subsequent and perhaps broader stimulus measures.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Saturday that any major economic stimulus package should have a heavy focus on clean energy. He noted that while everyone is rightly focused on the pandemic, the threat of climate change continues to grow.

“These stimulus packages offer an excellent opportunity to ensure that the essential task of building a secure and sustainable energy future doesn’t get lost amid the flurry of immediate priorities,” Birol wrote.

The IEA has long received criticism from environmentalists for favoring fossil fuels, so the full-throated statement for what sounds like a version of the Green New Deal, at a time when the oil and gas industry is in a historical crisis, is remarkable.

Quote
Governments around the world already directly or indirectly drive more than 70 percent of global energy investments, Birol noted, so the clean energy transition needs to be “front of mind.” The once-in-a-generation stimulus package that could soon come out of Washington is a “historic opportunity” to “steer those investments onto a more sustainable path,” he said.

“The coronavirus crisis is already doing significant damage around the world,” Birol concluded. “Rather than compounding the tragedy by allowing it to hinder clean energy transitions, we need to seize the opportunity to help accelerate them.”

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4689 on: March 30, 2020, 08:24:32 PM »
The oil price crash will lead to more investments in renewable projects than fossil fuel projects as they now have better rates of return.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Oil-Price-Crash-Opens-A-Window-Of-Opportunity-For-Renewables.html

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Oil Price Crash Opens A Window Of Opportunity For Renewables
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 26, 2020

Just a month ago, companies and investors had a financial incentive to continue investing in new oil and gas projects despite the societal and environmentalist backlash against fossil fuels.    Not anymore.   

In just a couple of weeks, the oil price crash made investments in renewable energy starting to look more attractive. Or at least as attractive as investment in oil and gas.

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What is more, the internal rate of return (IRR) on clean energy investment is now comparable to investments in oil and gas projects at $35 Brent Crude price, Dr Valentina Kretzschmar, Vice President, Corporate Research at Wood Mackenzie, wrote in an opinion piece this week.

Average returns for wind and solar are typically in the 5-10 percent range. Oil and gas project returns, at $60 oil, are 20 percent on average.

At $35 oil, however, the average IRR for oil and gas projects slumps to the renewables return range—5 to 10 percent, according to Wood Mackenzie.

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Big Oil will have to choose which capital allocation to cull in the shortest term to cope with the extreme oil market volatility. But for the players heavily invested in renewable energy, this heightened volatility and increased uncertainty in oil is an opportunity to boost investments in wind and solar power for small, but stable, returns. 

“Oil market volatility is unlikely to have a significant impact on renewable energy plans and investments,” Francesco La Camera, Director-General at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), said in a statement this month, commenting on the oil price collapse and its impact on renewables.

Quote
Experts at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center say that the COVID-19-induced global downturn and potentially low-for-longer oil prices could hamper the energy transition in the short term as governments will be focused on protecting their economies and consumers from the recession/depression.

But the pressure for decarbonization will not go away once all this chaos is over – it could even intensify calls for ditching fossil fuels in an increasingly volatile and politically-charged global oil market. This would be an opportunity for increased investment in renewables.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4690 on: April 07, 2020, 08:39:01 PM »
With the collapse of the oil and gas industry due to demand destruction caused by the Covid-19 recession, there will be a lot of unused oil and gas rigs around.  They could be re-purposed to build geothermal power plants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/24/business/geothermal-industry-grows-with-help-from-oil-and-gas-drilling.html

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Geothermal Industry Grows, With Help From Oil and Gas Drilling
By Kate Galbraith
July 23, 2014

SAN FRANCISCO — Geothermal energy — tapping into heat deep underground and using it to produce power — is sometimes described as a forgotten renewable. It languishes in the shadows of better-known sources like wind and the sun, and in 2011 it accounted for less than 1 percent of electric power worldwide, according to last year’s World Energy Outlook.

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At its most basic, geothermal power involves harnessing water heated to steam temperatures in the depths of the earth and using it to spin turbines that produce electricity. The Ring of Fire around the Pacific Ocean, where volcanoes and earthquakes are common, is an optimal source of energy, with high temperatures found relatively close to the surface. In addition to producing electric power, geothermal can also heat and cool homes, an application that can use lower temperatures than electric power production.

As an electricity source, geothermal energy has certain advantages over its main renewable competitors, the sun and wind. It works 24 hours a day, while solar and wind power are intermittent. Geothermal energy generates few planet-warming emissions, and it provides an alternative to hydroelectric power for countries like Kenya and El Salvador that might want to reduce their dependence on dams, said Eckehard Büscher, director of the International Geothermal Office in Germany.

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Drilling wells is expensive, taking 50 percent to 60 percent of a project’s total costs, according to Kewen Li, a senior research engineer at the Stanford University School of Earth Sciences.

The wells go hundreds or thousands of feet down, and 10 percent to 30 percent of the test wells are unsuccessful, Dr. Büscher said. Also, corrosion and scaling may occur in deep wells, and drilling rigs — also used by oil and gas companies — may not always be available, he said.

Many drilling rigs will be available for the foreseeable future.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-Could-Collapse-By-65.html

Quote
U.S. Rig Count Could Collapse By 65%

Due to the combined global effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, the American oil and gas industry is stepping heavily on the brake pedal and is reducing drilling at record speed, Rystad Energy research shows, putting the horizontal oil rig count on track to fall by about 65% from mid-March levels.

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From a peak of about 620 rigs in mid-March 2020, the oil rig count is forecast to free-fall to a potential bottom of around 200, Rystad Energy estimates, interpreting updated guidance from exploration and production (E&P) companies. Most of the anticipated decline will come already by the end of April. The horizontal rig count has so far dropped to roughly 500, falling by 19% from the recent apogee just three weeks ago.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4691 on: April 07, 2020, 10:25:33 PM »
While the Covid recession isn't great for the renewable energy industry, it's absolutely destroying the fossil fuel industries.  Renewables will recover from this, the oil and gas industry is toast.  (Coal was dead man walking before Covid hit).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/business/energy-environment/coronavirus-oil-wind-solar-energy.html

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Oil Companies Are Collapsing, but Wind and Solar Energy Keep Growing

The renewable-energy business is expected to keep growing, though more slowly, in contrast to fossil fuel companies, which have been hammered by low oil and gas prices.

By Ivan Penn
April 7, 2020

A few years ago, the kind of double-digit drop in oil and gas prices the world is experiencing now because of the coronavirus pandemic might have increased the use of fossil fuels and hurt renewable energy sources like wind and solar farms.

That is not happening.

In fact, renewable energy sources are set to account for nearly 21 percent of the electricity the United States uses for the first time this year, up from about 18 percent last year and 10 percent in 2010, according to one forecast published last week. And while work on some solar and wind projects has been delayed by the outbreak, industry executives and analysts expect the renewable business to continue growing in 2020 and next year even as oil, gas and coal companies struggle financially or seek bankruptcy protection.

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Even the decline in electricity use in recent weeks as businesses halted operations could help renewables, according to analysts at Raymond James & Associates. That’s because utilities, as revenue suffers, will try to get more electricity from wind and solar farms, which cost little to operate, and less from power plants fueled by fossil fuels.

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The Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group, estimates that half of the 250,000 workers in the industry could lose their jobs at least temporarily because of the coronavirus outbreak. The association has downgraded projected growth by as much as one-third of the more than 19 gigawatts of new solar capacity that was expected this year.

But independent experts, including Wood Mackenzie, an energy research and consulting firm, say those projections could be overly pessimistic. “It’s still too early to call,” Ravi Manghani, head of solar at research at Wood Mackenzie. “The situation is changing on a daily basis.”

His firm estimates that solar and wind power will continue adding capacity this year and next. New wind installations might be down only about 3 percent from earlier projections, largely because wind turbines are typically erected outside urban areas, and many states have deemed construction an essential activity during the pandemic.

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In addition, because developers can build wind and solar farms more quickly than natural-gas, coal and nuclear plants, Mr. Alonso said, the renewables have become more attractive financially. In difficult economic times like these, he said, private equity investors like Quantum are eager to seize on businesses that can quickly scale up and start earning money.

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The solar industry expected to add more panels in 2020 than in any other previous year, said Abigail Hopper, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association. That won’t happen now, but the industry is still poised to add capacity.

“We believe, over the long run, we are well positioned to outcompete incumbent generators,” Ms. Hopper said.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4692 on: April 11, 2020, 06:01:24 PM »
Rooftop Solar Wins Big in Kansas Court Ruling
Quote
The Kansas Supreme Court has provided a rare and sweet victory for renewable energy advocates in the state, with national implications.
The court issued a unanimous ruling on Friday agreeing with advocates that a 2018 utility rate plan was discriminatory in the way it created a new charge that inflated the bills of rooftop solar customers.

This has the potential to alter the national debate over how utilities deal with rooftop solar, considering that utilities in other states have pointed to Kansas as a model.

"We couldn't hardly believe it because we don't win on these issues against the utilities very often," said Dorothy Barnett, executive director of the Climate and Energy Project in Hutchinson, Kansas. "There was a lot of yelling and happy tears."

...
The utilities... said the charge was a fairness issue because rooftop solar customers otherwise have bills so small that they don't contribute enough to maintaining the electricity grid.

This is a familiar—and often dubious—argument, leading to a variety of measures across the country that have reduced the financial advantages of rooftop solar.

The deeper issue is that utilities often see rooftop solar as competition, showing what advocates say is an essential flaw in the utility business model that harms the transition to clean energy.


Barnett notes that the court decision was written by a judge appointed by former Gov. Sam Brownback, a conservative Republican, a fact that she sees as "almost a cherry on the top of an ice cream sundae."

...
Here's How the Nation's Largest Solar Installer Is Dealing with Coronavirus
Sunrun, the country's largest rooftop solar installer, has laid out how it plans to adapt to a market severely disrupted by Covid-19.

The San Francisco-based company says it is switching to conducting sales calls with video conferencing and carrying out roof surveys with drones, part of a broader effort to continue to sell and install solar systems at a time when its personnel cannot come in physical contact with customers. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08042020/clean-energy-solar-kansas
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4693 on: April 16, 2020, 08:00:43 PM »
US power demand is down more than 6% from last year, almost a two-decade low.  Since spring is the best time for renewable generation, this should lead to a record share of electricity from wind and solar.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Power-Demand-In-US-Falls-To-Nearly-Two-Decade-Low.html

Quote
Power Demand In U.S. Falls To Nearly Two Decade Low
By Julianne Geiger - Apr 16, 2020

As stay-at-home orders keep businesses shuttered across much of the United States, electricity demand has fallen to a near 17-year low, according to analysts at the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) trade group, as cited by Reuters.

Over the last week ending April 11, US power output fell to just 64,177 gigawatt hours—down 6.1% for the same week last year, and the lowest weekly output since mid-2003.

This drop in power demand is coinciding with a drop in prices as well, leading to a sell-off in wholesale US electricity markets, according to the Financial Times. It will mean a smaller bottom line for power companies, which some suggest may shift demand away from fossil fuels and toward wind and solar.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4694 on: April 18, 2020, 01:18:02 AM »
While the solar power industry may face some short term disruption during the Covid recession, there are still many projects moving forward.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/04/17/big-ass-solar-projects-issue-1/

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Utility-scale solar roundup: Pennsylvania, Mississippi and Arkansas develop record-size projects

The number of large solar projects is increasing in the U.S. — and pv magazine is keeping track. We’ve rounded up this week’s big news in big solar and included bonus news of a 100 MW battery project.
April 17, 2020

If there’s one solar segment that can weather a pandemic, it’s utility-scale photovoltaics.

Utility-scale supply chains are delayed, not broken — and it’s easier to work safely on a 1,000-acre solar project than on a home. Solar construction firms like Rosendin continue to construct big solar projects.

Once humanity emerges from this calamity, there’s still 30.4 GW of new utility-scale solar contracted in the U.S., according to Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables. The analyst firm suggests that even with a a 26% shortfall from its forecast, “2020 would be the biggest year for utility solar.”

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WoodMac forecasts that the number of solar projects larger than 120 MWac commissioned in the U.S. will grow from 11 in 2019 to 32 in 2021.

The article goes on to list several large projects currently being implemented.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4695 on: April 22, 2020, 01:10:20 AM »
Clearer skies due to the industrial shutdowns from the Covid-19 recession are leading to record levels of solar energy production.  This is leading to curtailment of coal-fired power plants, creating a positive feed back loop for increased production of solar energy (or a negative feedback loop for coal).

https://time.com/5824644/germany-coronavirus-solar/

Quote
Germany, With Skies Cleared by Coronavirus Lockdown, Produces Record Solar Power

By William Wilkes and Rachel Morison / Bloomberg
April 21, 2020 4:06 AM EDT

Germany’s solar panels produced record amounts of electricity, exacerbating market forces that were already hammering the profitability of the country’s remaining coal plants.

Gin-clear skies over central Europe helped photovoltaic plants produce 32,227 megawatts on Monday, beating the previous record on March 23. Bright conditions are expected to continue this week, according to Germany’s DWD federal weather service.

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Renewables are cutting deeper into the market share for coal, the fuel on which Germany’s wealth and industrial prowess was built. The government forecasts that green power will make up about 80% of the electricity mix by 2038, compared with just over 40% in 2019.

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Sunny conditions meant solar generated as much as about 40% of Germany’s power Monday, compared to the 22% produced by coal and nuclear, according to Agora Energiewende. Solar, wind and other renewables accounted for 78% of Germany’s electricity output.

Quote
Coronavirus lockdowns are accelerating market trends that spell doom for the dirtiest fossil fuel. Less activity has slashed electricity demand just as spring’s sunnier and windy weather boosts output from renewables, which have priority over fossil fuels in feeding into the grid.

That’s resulted in more hours when electricity prices turn negative, where consumers essentially are paid to take excess power off the grid. The phenomena is usually seen when holidays or weekends coincide with exceptionally sunny or windy weather. Incidents of negative prices are increasing, with 773 negative prices recorded for 15-minute contracts in the first three months of the year, a 78% increase from the same period a year ago, according to Epex Spot exchange data

Green sources of power like solar and wind are used to meet electricity demand ahead of more costly production such as coal and lignite. With prices more regularly negative, fossil fuels aren’t getting a look in.

“You have coal looking very much like the energy market’s loser,” Carlos Perez Linkenheil, a senior analyst at Berlin-based Energy Brainpool, said by phone last week.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4696 on: April 22, 2020, 01:24:58 AM »
Globally, renewables generated more electricity than coal in 2019.

https://www.mining.com/renewables-overtake-coal-fired-power-generation-for-first-time/

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Renewables overtake coal-fired power generation for first time
Frik Els | April 20, 2020

The International Energy Agency (IEA) report on key electricity trends in the world’s developed economies, released last week, shows renewable energy overtaking coal as a source of electricity generation for the first time in 2019.

Quote
Coal use was 13.4% lower than in 2018 at 2,328 Twh and made up just over 22% of the total electricity mix. Coal use in Europe fell by 21.7%, the sixth year in a row of shrinking output. The IEA says in the Americas, coal-fired power plants produced 14.% less electricity year-on-year.

In 2019, non-combustible renewable production accounted for just under 26% of total OECD electricity production at 2,735 Twh.



Quote
Overall, fossil fuels dropped by 245 TWh, while renewables production rose by 119 TWh from 2018 to 2019. The largest increase for renewable technologies was wind, up by 12.8%, followed by solar, up 14.1%. Nuclear power generation grew slightly.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4697 on: April 22, 2020, 12:22:47 PM »
Pre-Covid data from the IEA, (as OECD excludes China)   
- OECD Electricity Production from Jan 16 to Jan 2020.
- USA Electricity Production from Jan 16 to Jan 2020.

Coal dies, renewables grow as does LNG.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4698 on: April 22, 2020, 04:05:42 PM »
Nice work gerontocrat!
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Bruce Steele

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4699 on: April 22, 2020, 05:44:35 PM »
Happy earth day everyone.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/21/michael_moore_presents_planet_of_the_humans_documentary_we_are_losing_the_battle_to_stop_climate_change.html

I will watch this after morning chores. I think it is intended to ruffle some feathers...it is Micheal Moore and he wanted it released on Earth Day.
I just started it and I had a hard time hitting stop play. How are they going to know it’s their time to go?
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 05:50:53 PM by Bruce Steele »