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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4800 on: June 17, 2020, 09:10:05 AM »
There is always a solution if the political will is there, and in this case the solution is for governments to mandate landlords to install renewable systems (solar, batteries) in units for rent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4801 on: June 17, 2020, 06:07:31 PM »
There is always a solution if the political will is there, and in this case the solution is for governments to mandate landlords to install renewable systems (solar, batteries) in units for rent.

Indeed.  And renters who want the technology now, but can’t afford to buy it themselves, should be doing the research and making the case to their landlords for how installing renewables will save all of them money.

Tesla has solar plans that guarantee savings immediately.  Other companies must have similar options.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4802 on: June 17, 2020, 06:14:49 PM »
We are getting rid of the gas and coal here so eventually that will happen.

PS: Energy costs are for the renter so the owner does not save money by improving the building.
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4803 on: June 17, 2020, 06:25:04 PM »
Sigmetnow, There was a 600 acre brushfire that started right after we had a power outage last weekend. The powerwalls kicked in right away and clocks didn’t need resetting or warning lights for power outage on freezers didn’t notice any surge. We had power for our water and I set up hoses to fight the fire but luckily it stayed a mile away.
 We were putting power into the powerwalls because the solar was producing more than we were using.
I did turn off the air conditioner and waited to do laundry but the system worked perfectly and we had power to spare. The outage was during daylight hours but I wanted the powerwall full in case the power outage went into the night , but it didn’t. At 86% I could have easily gotten through a couple days or really a couple weeks.

Bruce, I am glad to hear you survived the nearby fire unscathed.  A renewable power system can certainly make stressful situations a bit — or a lot! — easier and safer for people to manage, including protecting your home and property.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4804 on: June 17, 2020, 06:35:43 PM »
We are getting rid of the gas and coal here so eventually that will happen.

PS: Energy costs are for the renter so the owner does not save money by improving the building.

What if the total energy generated by the system brings in more money than the cost of the electricity it provided to the renters?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4805 on: June 17, 2020, 06:41:51 PM »
That would be interesting if you can make a profit but that depends how you can sell it into the (preferably local) grid.
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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4806 on: June 17, 2020, 07:21:13 PM »
It doeדn't really matter who pays the electricity bill. A solar system that saves the renter money means the landlord can set a higher rent, and thus recoup the investment.
This is the case in Israel with solar hot water systems.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 12:38:06 AM by oren »

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4807 on: June 17, 2020, 10:35:32 PM »
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest US investment firms, is now marketing investment in renewables over fossil fuels.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/renewable-energy-trillion-investment-opportunity-surpass-oil-first-time-goldman-2020-6-1029318482

Quote
Goldman Sachs says renewable-energy spending will surpass oil and gas for the first time ever in 2021 — and sees total investment spiking to $16 trillion over the next decade

Ben Winck
Jun. 17, 2020, 05:48 PM

The transition to renewable power from traditional fuels will create a $16 trillion investment opportunity through 2030 as spending shifts to new infrastructure, Goldman Sachs analysts said Tuesday.

The bank projects green-energy spending to pass that of oil and gas for the first time ever next year and account for roughly 25% of all energy spending. The share stood at just 15% in 2014, but a dive in fossil-fuel investing over the past decade shifted more dollars to clean energy initiatives.

Quote
Economic downturns have historically slowed efforts to boost clean energy investing, but Goldman sees the coronavirus downturn bucking that trend and accelerating the nationwide pivot.

"We believe this time will be different, especially for technologies that are now mature enough to be deployed at scale and can benefit from a falling cost of capital and an attractive regulatory framework, unlocking one of the largest infrastructure investment opportunities in history on our estimates," the team wrote.


gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4808 on: June 17, 2020, 10:45:08 PM »
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest US investment firms, is now marketing investment in renewables over fossil fuels.

Quote
Goldman Sachs says renewable-energy spending will surpass oil and gas for the first time ever in 2021 — and sees total investment spiking to $16 trillion over the next decade
The bank projects green-energy spending to pass that of oil and gas for the first time ever next year and account for roughly 25% of all energy spending. The share stood at just 15% in 2014, but a dive in fossil-fuel investing over the past decade shifted more dollars to clean energy initiatives.

"We believe this time will be different, especially for technologies that are now mature enough to be deployed at scale and can benefit from a falling cost of capital and an attractive regulatory framework unlocking one of the largest infrastructure investment opportunities in history on our estimates," the team wrote.

and an attractive regulatory framework,
Goldman Sachs is betting that Trump doesn't get another 4 years?
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vox_mundi

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4809 on: June 18, 2020, 01:08:38 PM »
World Has Six Months to Avert Climate Crisis, Says Energy Expert
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/world-has-six-months-to-avert-climate-crisis-says-energy-expert

The world has only six months in which to change the course of the climate crisis and prevent a post-lockdown rebound in greenhouse gas emissions that would overwhelm efforts to stave off climate catastrophe, one of the world’s foremost energy experts has warned.

“This year is the last time we have, if we are not to see a carbon rebound,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.

Governments are planning to spend $9tn (£7.2tn) globally in the next few months on rescuing their economies from the coronavirus crisis, the IEA has calculated. The stimulus packages created this year will determine the shape of the global economy for the next three years, according to Birol, and within that time emissions must start to fall sharply and permanently, or climate targets will be out of reach.

“The next three years will determine the course of the next 30 years and beyond,” Birol told the Guardian. “If we do not [take action] we will surely see a rebound in emissions. If emissions rebound, it is very difficult to see how they will be brought down in future. This is why we are urging governments to have sustainable recovery packages.”

In a report published on Thursday, the IEA – the world’s gold standard for energy analysis - set out the first global blueprint for a green recovery, focusing on reforms to energy generation and consumption. Wind and solar power should be a top focus, the report advised, alongside energy efficiency improvements to buildings and industries, and the modernisation of electricity grids.

https://www.iea.org/reports/sustainable-recovery

Creating jobs must be the priority for countries where millions have been thrown into unemployment by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns. The IEA’s analysis shows that targeting green jobs – such as retrofitting buildings to make them more energy efficient, putting up solar panels and constructing wind farms – is more effective than pouring money into the high-carbon economy.



According to analyst company Bloomberg New Energy Finance, more than half a trillion dollars worldwide – $509bn – is to be poured into high-carbon industries, with no conditions to ensure they reduce their carbon output.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/falling-clean-energy-costs-can-provide-opportunity-to-boost-climate-action-in-covid-19-recovery-packages/
« Last Edit: June 18, 2020, 01:22:13 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4810 on: June 18, 2020, 07:27:47 PM »
“In total, the mix of all renewables will add more than 53 gigawatts (GW) of net new generating capacity to the nation’s total by April 2023. That is nearly 50 times the net new capacity (1.1 GW) projected to be added by natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear power combined.”

The Tide Is Turning (And Is It Ever!)
June 18th, 2020 by George Harvey
Quote
In the US, renewables are expected to see fifty times as much net capacity added in the next three years as nuclear and fossil fuels combined.

I was stunned by the idea that renewables would outpace fossil fuels plus nuclear by a factor of 50 over the next three years. In fact, I double-checked the data at FERC. It is true, as you can see for yourself in the Energy Infrastructure Update for April 2020.
[ https://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2020/apr-energy-infrastructure.pdf ]

On page 5 of this report is a table of Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements. Pay attention to the columns of High Probability Additions and Retirements. If you add the sections on the fossil fuels and nuclear from both (counting retirements as negative), and then add the sections on renewables the same way, you do, indeed, find that FERC expects net additions for renewables to be nearly 50 times as great as net additions for fossil fuels plus nuclear in the next three years.

We might consider a couple of things here, as we ponder the future. One is that FERC is entirely dominated by Trump appointees who seem to be determined to undermine renewable energy in favor of helping fossil fuels. I wonder what is going on in their heads when they look at the data their own commission has released.

Another thing, however, is that the news from the real world suggests that coal, in particular, is declining faster than FERC, or anyone else, could have expected. Every week, I seem to see two or three announcements of coal-burning power plants being closed ahead of schedule. These are retirements that FERC has not yet taken into account.

As retirements continue to increase, the change in net capacity for fossil fuels will soon go into negative territory. Clearly, this will happen to coal before it happens to gas, which is still growing. Plants powered by gas may be hit soon, however, especially as the price of the fuel itself is projected to increase.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/18/the-tide-is-turning-and-is-it-ever/amp/
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4811 on: June 18, 2020, 09:36:23 PM »
“In total, the mix of all renewables will add more than 53 gigawatts (GW) of net new generating capacity to the nation’s total by April 2023. That is nearly 50 times the net new capacity (1.1 GW) projected to be added by natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear power combined.”

The Tide Is Turning (And Is It Ever!)
June 18th, 2020 by George Harvey
Quote
In the US, renewables are expected to see fifty times as much net capacity added in the next three years as nuclear and fossil fuels combined.

I was stunned by the idea that renewables would outpace fossil fuels plus nuclear by a factor of 50 over the next three years. In fact, I double-checked the data at FERC. It is true, as you can see for yourself in the Energy Infrastructure Update for April 2020.
[ https://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2020/apr-energy-infrastructure.pdf ]

On page 5 of this report is a table of Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements. Pay attention to the columns of High Probability Additions and Retirements. If you add the sections on the fossil fuels and nuclear from both (counting retirements as negative), and then add the sections on renewables the same way, you do, indeed, find that FERC expects net additions for renewables to be nearly 50 times as great as net additions for fossil fuels plus nuclear in the next three years.

We might consider a couple of things here, as we ponder the future. One is that FERC is entirely dominated by Trump appointees who seem to be determined to undermine renewable energy in favor of helping fossil fuels. I wonder what is going on in their heads when they look at the data their own commission has released.

Another thing, however, is that the news from the real world suggests that coal, in particular, is declining faster than FERC, or anyone else, could have expected. Every week, I seem to see two or three announcements of coal-burning power plants being closed ahead of schedule. These are retirements that FERC has not yet taken into account.

As retirements continue to increase, the change in net capacity for fossil fuels will soon go into negative territory. Clearly, this will happen to coal before it happens to gas, which is still growing. Plants powered by gas may be hit soon, however, especially as the price of the fuel itself is projected to increase.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/18/the-tide-is-turning-and-is-it-ever/amp/

Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels and nuclear.  This is the logical result of that fact.

In some states, the fossil fuel companies may have enough political clout to delay the inevitable, but all of the energy users will just switch to cheaper forms of power anyway.  Corporations will use PPAs and small users can install solar panels on their rooftops.

It's only in the non-market countries like China where you'll see fossil fuels in any significant amounts in the future.  And even then, the manufacturers competing against international firms with lower energy costs will eventually force the fossil fuels out.

rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4812 on: June 22, 2020, 10:22:49 PM »
BP 2020 Statistical Review: 41% - Renewables contribution to the increase in energy demand, the largest of any other energy source

- This report is full of facts and figures about global energy use:

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf

In a year when global primary energy consumption increased by only 1.3%, below its 10-year average of 1.6% per year, renewables were unable to offset even half of the increase. With only a small increase in nuclear, the result was that carbon emissions still increased by 0.5% (ignoring the undercounting of natural gas fugitive emissions).

This is the fundamental problem, even with energy efficiency gains offsetting more then half of global GDP growth the increase in renewables output is not enough to stop carbon emissions from rising. Those emissions need to be falling by 5%+ per year, not rising by 0.5%. That would require 5-10 times the current levels of energy efficiency gains and renewables implementations if governments are not to agree to reduce GDP growth.

Oil consumption increased by 2 million barrels per day (681 mb/d in China) - about 2%

Natural Gas consumption increased by 78 billion cubic meters (US 27 bcm; China 24 bcm) - 2%

Coal consumption fell by 0.6%. Rises in Asia (China +1.8EJ, Indonesia +0.6EJ, Vietnam (+0.5EJ) offset by falls in the US (-1.9EJ) and Germany (-0.6EJ). OECD coal consumption fell to its lowest level since 1965. At some point soon the OECD may run out of coal to cut, which will put a drag on the global reduction in coal consumption.

Renewables share of primary energy consumption:
- US 6.2% (+0.4%)
- Brazil 16.3% (sugar ethanol used instead of oil) (+1.2%)
- EU 11% (+1%)
- CIS 0.1% (Russia etc.)
- Africa 2% (+0.5%)
- China 4.7% (+0.4%)
- Other Asia 2.9% (+0.4%)

- World 5% (increase of 0.5% y-o-y)




gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4813 on: June 23, 2020, 06:21:54 PM »
To reinforce the previous post by R. Boyd....

The IEA are now producing data for countries other than OECD members - e.g. China & India.
That means data produced in a standard format & methodology.

The latest data is up to March 2020 (starting at Jan '16 when they promoted renewables in the formats).

I am staggered. I had not realised how in energy terms, China makes the USA look so unimportant. To put it in perspective -
 - the USA is producing only just over 50 TWh of electricity from coal each month.
- China produced at maximum impact of covid-19 a minimum of 300+ TWH electricity from coal in Feb 2020 (& a maximum of of 430 TWh in Aug 2019).

- the USA produces on average a total of about 300-350 TWH electricity per month,
- China's electricity production is more like 600-650 TH per month, and after dropping to a low of 450 TWH in February is already back to 550 TWH.

It all makes the good news on Coal use reduction in the US & Europe look rather feeble.
That's what happens when a country becomes the Workshop of the World.

ps: Not had a good look at India yet - but its use of coal for electricity is about double the USA.

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« Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 10:56:33 PM by gerontocrat »
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4814 on: June 23, 2020, 07:14:29 PM »
H/T to RBoyd for the link to the BP Statistical Review.

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf

Highlights:

Quote
Renewable energy (including biofuels) posted a record increase in consumption in energy terms (3.2 EJ). This was also the largest increment for any source of energy in 2019.

Quote
The slowdown in energy demand growth, combined with a shift in the fuel mix away from coal and toward natural gas and renewables, led to a significant slowing in the growth of carbon emissions, although only partially unwinding the unusually strong increase seen in 2018.

Quote
World coal consumption fell by 0.6% (-0.9 exajoules, or EJ), its fourth decline in six years, displaced by natural gas and renewables, particularly in the power sector (see electricity section). As a result, coal’s share in the energy mix fell to 27.0%, its lowest level in 16 years.

Quote
Generation of electricity grew by only 1.3% last year, around half of its 10-year average. Growth was weak or negative in most regions, other than in China which increased by 340 TWh (4.7%), accounting for 95% of net global growth (360 TWh).

Renewables provided the largest increment to power generation (340 TWh), followed by natural gas (220 TWh). These gains came partially at the expense of coal generation which fell sharply (-270 TWh), causing the share of coal in power generation to fall by 1.5 percentage points to 36.4% – the lowest in our dataset (which goes back to 1985). Despite this, coal remained the single largest source of power generation in 2019. Meanwhile, the share of renewables in generation increased from 9.3% to 10.4%, surpassing nuclear generation for the first time.

Renewables only became cheaper than coal in 2018 in some parts of the world.  They are now cheaper than coal almost everywhere and approaching parity with natural gas.  Given the time to plan, permit and build power plants, the statistics above reflect investments made prior to 2018.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4815 on: June 23, 2020, 07:35:41 PM »
Investment in all forms of energy is declining due to the Covid recession, but fossil fuels are being hit much harder than renewables.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/05/20200531-iea.html

Quote
IEA: COVID-19 crisis causing the biggest fall in global energy investment in history
31 May 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has set in motion the largest drop in global energy investment in history, with spending expected to plunge in every major sector this year—from fossil fuels to renewables and efficiency—the International Energy Agency said in a new report.

Quote
At the start of 2020, global energy investment was on track for growth of around 2%, which would have been the largest annual rise in spending in six years. But after the COVID-19 crisis brought large swathes of the world economy to a standstill in a matter of months, global investment is now expected to plummet by 20%, or almost $400 billion, compared with last year, according to the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2020 report.

Quote
Global investment in oil and gas is expected to fall by almost one-third in 2020. The shale industry was already under pressure, and investor confidence and access to capital has now dried up: investment in shale is anticipated to fall by 50% in 2020. At the same time, many national oil companies are now desperately short of funding. For oil markets, if investment stays at 2020 levels then this would reduce the previously-expected level of supply in 2025 by almost 9 million barrels a day, creating a clear risk of tighter markets if demand starts to move back towards its pre-crisis trajectory.

Power sector spending is on course to decrease by 10% in 2020, with worrying signals for the development of more secure and sustainable power systems. Renewables investment has been more resilient during the crisis than fossil fuels, but spending on rooftop solar installations by households and businesses has been strongly affected and final investment decisions in the first quarter of 2020 for new utility-scale wind and solar projects fell back to the levels of three years ago. An expected 9% decline in investment in electricity networks this year compounds a large fall in 2019, and spending on important sources of power system flexibility has also stalled, with investment in natural gas plants stagnating and spending on battery storage levelling off.

Quote
The overall share of global energy spending that goes to clean energy technologies—including renewables, efficiency, nuclear and carbon capture, utilisation and storage—has been stuck at around one-third in recent years. In 2020, it will jump towards 40%, but only because fossil fuels are taking such a heavy hit. In absolute terms, it remains far below the levels that would be required to accelerate energy transitions.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4816 on: June 23, 2020, 08:34:25 PM »
While the recession is slowing down some energy projects, projections for solar in the US continue to show strong growth.

https://karmaimpact.com/solar-power-rebound-expected-after-covid-19-speed-bump/

Quote
Solar Power Rebound Expected After COVID-19 Speed Bump
Pandemic temporarily slowed solar panel installations after record breaking first quarter.
Mark Shenk   June 22, 2020   

The U.S. solar industry, like most sectors, struggled early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts project it to resume growing shortly.

Solar power was riding high before the coronavirus outbreak. During the first three months of 2020, there were 3.62 gigawatts of solar-panel capacity installed in the U.S., a record for the first quarter. The industry was largely unaffected by COVID-19 in that time frame, but is expected to take a hit during the second quarter, Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association said in a report, though that setback isn’t expected to last.

Quote
Residential demand is expected to slow this year, though large-scale projects will pick up the slack. Total U.S. solar capacity will likely climb 33% this year, with almost 18 gigawatts on installations, according to Wood Mackenzie. That’s down from the growth of 20 gigawatts forecast before the pandemic hit, but still well ahead of the prior record year of 2016, when around 15 gigawatts of capacity was added.

Quote
U.S. utility-scale solar capacity will climb by 12.6 gigawatts this year, and increase by a further 10.7 million gigawatts in 2021, the Energy Information Administration said in a report on June 9. The U.S. solar sector is projected to install 113 gigawatts of capacity between 2020-2025, which is down 3.6 gigawatts from Wood Mackenzie’s 2019 Year-in-Review report.

“Renewables in general are the leading source of new generation,” Perea said. “This should continue.”

blumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4817 on: June 24, 2020, 03:19:31 PM »
Norway will slow down onshore wind power developments

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/norway-will-slow-down-onshore-wind-power-developments/
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4818 on: June 25, 2020, 06:46:35 PM »
The cost of solar power continues to decline.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/06/24/pv-module-prices-are-falling-faster-than-all-predictions/

Quote
PV module prices are falling faster than all predictions

New research from Wood Mackenzie shows that overall system costs for installations using mono PERC modules are set to fall by as much as 20% by 2025.
June 24, 2020 Tim Sylvia

Across all market segments, PV system costs are falling faster than anticipated, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie. The unexpected fall in costs has been attributed to the rapidly declining price of modules, with the costs of a residential system using mono PERC modules now expected to fall 17% from 2020 to 2025, while mono PERC commercial and utility system costs are expected to decline 16% and 20% respectively over the same time.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4819 on: June 25, 2020, 06:51:48 PM »
The Covid lockdowns are showing that solar power has an unexpected positive feedback.  As more solar power is installed to replace fossil fuels, the air will be clearer, leading to more electrical generation from the solar panels.

https://www.sciencealert.com/cleaner-air-from-coronavirus-lockdowns-is-making-solar-panels-more-efficient-in-highly-polluted-areas

Quote
Coronavirus Lockdowns Are Actually Making Some Solar Panels More Efficient
JACINTA BOWLER
23 JUNE 2020

Lockdowns have been a controversial aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yes, they undoubtedly save lives, but they also cause major ongoing economic issues – disrupting industries, causing job losses and associated financial pain.

But another thing lockdowns have done all over the world is decrease air pollution, and new research shows an interesting flow-on effect of this.

The new study has looked at solar power in Delhi – one of the most polluted cities in the world – and has found that the reduction in air pollution has allowed significantly more sunlight to get through to solar panels in the city, increasing their output.

"The increase that we saw is equivalent to the difference between what a photovoltaic (PV) installation in Houston would produce compared with one in Toronto," says first author Ian Marius Peters of Helmholtz-Institut Erlangen-Nürnberg for Renewable Energies in Germany.

Quote
The team found that, overall, the amount of sunlight reaching solar panels in Delhi increased by around 8 percent in late March 2020, and 6 percent in April 2020 compared to similar dates in earlier years.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4820 on: June 26, 2020, 10:33:08 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The USA IEA did its monthly update yesterday, but still very much pre-covid19 and early covid19 data.

US Solar + wind energy continue to grow - and I haven't the heart to put it in context against fossil fuels.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4821 on: June 29, 2020, 11:45:22 PM »
The BP Energy review for 2019 shows renewable share of electricity generation increasing exponentially, natural gas plateauing, and all other forms of generation declining.



https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/electricity.html

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4822 on: June 30, 2020, 11:37:31 AM »
The BP Energy review for 2019 shows renewable share of electricity generation increasing exponentially, natural gas plateauing, and all other forms of generation declining.

Interestingly, they write that 95% of the global growth in electricity production last year was in China. But electricity production, on the contrary, should increase in order to replace transport fuel and fuel for heating.

Is this evidence of the impoverishment of developed countries? Or an increase in electrical efficiency?

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-electricity.pdf

Total North America -0.6%
Total S. & Cent. America -0.1%
Total Europe -1.8%
Total CIS 1.0%
Total Middle East 3.3%
Total Africa 2.9%
Total Asia Pacific 3.1%

bluice

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4823 on: June 30, 2020, 11:54:55 AM »
The BP Energy review for 2019 shows renewable share of electricity generation increasing exponentially, natural gas plateauing, and all other forms of generation declining.



https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/electricity.html
Replacing zero carbon energy sources (nuclear and hydro) with other zero carbon sources (wind and solar) does not reduce emissions. Also, emissions aren't cause by percentage shares but absolute tons of carbon burnt. While zero-carbon share of the electricity generation mix remains pretty much constant emissions will rise when the total keeps growing.

And, obviously, this is only the electricity generation part. Transportation, industrial heat, land use etc are even more difficult to decarbonize.

It's great to see renewables growing rapidly but we must be realistic. Market driven renewables are not going to prevent the climate crisis. Something else must be done.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4824 on: June 30, 2020, 02:20:28 PM »
Ken, here is a more relevant graph for you, also from BP

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf

I'm sure you know electricity production doesn't provide a realistic picture of renewables share in the energy mix. Unless you are trying to push an agenda here, why constantly cherry pick and tell only half of the story?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4825 on: June 30, 2020, 08:41:10 PM »
Inside Clean Energy:
• Here Are the U.S. States Where You Save the Most on Fuel by Choosing an EV
• Minnesota Looks to Clean Energy to Boost Struggling Economy
• Tesla Aims for Low-Cost Message to Sell Solar. Will It Work?
• Our Interstate Grid Is Old and Creaky. Here Are the People Who Want to Make It Better.
• I-5 Should Become a Central Artery for Electric Trucks, Study Says

Jun 25, 2020
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24062020/inside-clean-energy-tesla-rooftop-solar
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4826 on: June 30, 2020, 11:24:21 PM »
Ken doesn't cherry pick in my opinion he just reports on articles in a few websites. The choice of websites provides the bias.
The percentage of new generation that is renewable is growing rapidly. Obviously all new generation needs to be renewable but we are making progress. I extracted data from EIA. This is U.S. electricity data for Jan-Apr 2020. Notice that while new fossil fuels are being built we have a net loss of 517.9 MW of fossil fuel plants and a net gain of 5046.6 MW of renewables. That is an improvement things are changing for the better. We are not close to where we need to be but we are headed in the right direction.


Technology (all values in MW) AdditionsRetirements NetRenewableFossilOther
Batteries 36.1 36.136.1
Conventional Steam Coal 17-2846.9 -2829.9 -2829.9
Landfill Gas 0.6 0.6 0.6
Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle 2874.1-789.7 2084.4 2084.4
Natural Gas Fired Combustion Turbine 222.4-207.7 14.7 14.7
Natural Gas Internal Combustion Engine 231.7 231.7 231.7
Natural Gas Steam Turbine -23.8 -23.8 -23.8
Nuclear -1016.1 -1016.1 -1016.1
Onshore Wind Turbine 2677-98 25792677
Other Natural Gas 5 5 5
Petroleum Liquids -232 -232
Solar Photovoltaic 2333.5 2333.52333.5
Wood/Wood Waste Biomass 8.5 8.5
Total
8,405.9
-5,214.2
3,191.7
5,046.6
-517.9
-1,015.5






KiwiGriff

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4827 on: June 30, 2020, 11:48:22 PM »
bluice
Energy is not all the same
You can not directly compare the energy in a liter of oil or kilo of coal to the energy from a solar panel .
1 kilogram of coal 8,1 kwh efficiency of electrical generation using coal about 45%.
1 litre of petrol 9,1 kwh usefull work  if used in transport about 20%.
One kwh of solar or wind energy will give you from 70% of actual work in transport to  near 100% for other uses.

We do not need to produce as much renewable energy to replace inefficient fossil fuels as just looking at raw energy consumption numbers suggests .
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4828 on: July 01, 2020, 01:52:11 AM »
bluice
Energy is not all the same
You can not directly compare the energy in a liter of oil or kilo of coal to the energy from a solar panel .
1 kilogram of coal 8,1 kwh efficiency of electrical generation using coal about 45%.
1 litre of petrol 9,1 kwh usefull work  if used in transport about 20%.
One kwh of solar or wind energy will give you from 70% of actual work in transport to  near 100% for other uses.

We do not need to produce as much renewable energy to replace inefficient fossil fuels as just looking at raw energy consumption numbers suggests .

Some of what you are saying is true, but in general you have it backwards. At least as far as reality is concerned (vs theoretical).

Solar and Wind energy is drastically more often wasted vs fossil fuel energy. Also, the solar and wind are only functional as surplus/"luxury"/additional electricity generation building on top of a base/foundational electricity generation from fossil fuels (or hydro or nuclear).  It's just the way the infrastructure works.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4829 on: July 01, 2020, 09:06:34 PM »
China
Volvo Cars Chengdu Car Plant Powered by 100 per cent Renewable Electricity
June 27, 2020
Quote
The Volvo Cars manufacturing plant in Chengdu, the company’s largest in China, is now powered by 100 per cent renewable electricity, taking the company’s global renewable electricity mix in its manufacturing network to 80 per cent.

The 100 per cent renewable electricity mix in Chengdu is the result of a newly signed supply contract and will reduce the plant’s CO2 emissions by over 11,000 tonnes per year.

It is the latest concrete step towards Volvo Cars’ ambition to have climate neutral manufacturing by 2025, part of a wider climate plan that aims to reduce the overall carbon footprint per car by 40 per cent between 2018 and 2025. By 2040, Volvo Cars aims to be a climate neutral company.

The new electricity contract is also in line with broader ambitions in China to reduce carbon emissions from industry and reduce the carbon footprint resulting from energy generation.

Until recently, the Chengdu plant already sourced 70 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources. The new contract addresses the last 30 per cent.

Under the new contract, around 65 per cent of the electricity supply comes from hydropower, while the remainder comes from solar power, wind power and other renewable sources. …
https://evobsession.com/volvo-cars-chengdu-car-plant-powered-by-100-per-cent-renewable-electricity/amp/
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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4830 on: July 02, 2020, 12:22:22 AM »
KF does not cherry pick per se, but his posts are 99% positive. An important service, nothing wrong with that, but don't expect to get the other side of the story.

Primary energy is not a good measure, it will forever undercount renewables which do not produce waste heat.

Re wind and solar only luxury, nah, that's old news. 4h batteries (and pumped up hydro) can do wonders with these sources, and when complemented by dispatchable sources (gas, hydro) renewables save lots of emissions and provide energy reliably.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4831 on: July 02, 2020, 02:48:11 AM »
GSY most of what you said is not true. except curtailment. Even with curtailment renewables are more profitible than fossil fuels.
I looked at CASIO originaly Californias energy imbalance market. Now the serve most of the western US coast. They post lots of information on the subject. Including hourly information on production and curtailment. Most curtailment is a local grid issue and is primarily caused by the rapid expansion of renewables.


Renewable are just cheaper as demonstrated by recent trends. As I noted  in a post above in the first 4 months of 2020 renewable grew by a net 5046.6 mw. During the same period fossil fuels had a net loss of 517.9 mw.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4832 on: July 02, 2020, 02:50:15 AM »

Washington state produces approximately 80% of its electricity from renewable and that number is increasing. In 2018 (stats are about a year late) my local pud's power mix was 87.4% renewable and 9.99% nuclear 0.01% natural gas the rest was a mix of biomass and other fossil fuels. We also have one of the cheapest electricity rates in the country. 

Once electricity is produced it is the same no mater how it is produced. Calling renewable energy surplus, luxury or additional is just propaganda. An opinion and nothing more.

The power grid has always needed the flexibility to adapt to changing power demands. That is nothing new.
Natural gas peaker turbines are about 30% efficient
Natural gas combined cycle turbines are about 70% efficient.
Peaker turbines was the old way of dealing with this changing demand. Utilities are starting to replace peaker turbines with batteries because they are cheaper. They have the added benefit of responding faster and supplying frequency regulation.   

nanning

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4833 on: July 02, 2020, 07:47:52 AM »
The article below is from the Fryslân province in The Netherlands and what it means is that excess green electricity is going to waste because the grid cannot handle it.
I think GSY has a point.

https://www.omropfryslan.nl/nijs/970390-efkes-dimme-liander-siket-ut-oft-sinnepanielen-ek-wat-minder-leverje-kinne
Free translation of link: "Hold you horses. Grid operator Liander wants solar parks to stop delivering so much electrical energy"

From Frisian to English via Google Translate and me:
Quote
At present, there are so many companies that want to connect solar panels to the power grid that it can no longer have extra energy. "A few hundred solar parks and wind farms are on the waiting list, and that has to change" says Peter Hofland of grid operator Liander.

"At this point, the producers of green power have to deliver all the electricity to the grid, on the days when the sun shines brightest, but that's only a few days a year. All those other days it is not so, then there's plenty of room, "Hofland indicates.

What this means is that grid infrastructure is not able to cope with all the green electricity being put on the grid in the near future. Many solar parks and wind turbine parks are being build and planned but already the grid has problems on very sunny days.

Infrastructure is owned by private companies now almost everywhere and they have cut 'costs' such as maintenance, over capacity, redundancy, adapting to structural change necessary for different future (which is already here).

Soon very large wind turbine parks in the North Sea will start producing a massive amount of electrical energy that is going into transformer stations in Fryslân and/or Groningen that still have to be build and are in advanced planning phase. Once connected, these will massively overload the grid that is already having problems on very sunny days.

Perhaps they'll start a second grid for all those very high energy use luxury private motor-assisted transport vehicles? ;)
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4834 on: July 02, 2020, 08:37:44 AM »
because the grid cannot handle it

Well, if you built a grid so that it can't do specific things than this is true. But the grids are modernized all the time, so how did they manage to make it so?

Nanning, is the grid there separated from the power producer? I think it's an EU-directive IIRC.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 08:43:40 AM by blumenkraft »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4835 on: July 02, 2020, 09:16:12 AM »
Calling Ken a cherry picker probably wasn't completely fair, but unless we look at all sides of the story we get a distorted view of the real world.

Renewables are great. I love the technology! I have solar panels installed on my roof, and believe me at 60N they aren't the best of investments on financial grounds alone.

But. We tend to be biased towards advanced EU and US economies which have developed energy infrastructures, plenty of cheap capital and technical knowhow but fairly slow growth in energy use. We need to remember America is no longer the driving force in global emissions. Old (post)industrial economies also have plenty of aging fossil plants to be retired or left in reserve.

However the growth in emissions is coming from emerging economies, China being the largest by far. They don't have enough readily available baseload capacity to support low renewable production hours. Capital is more expensive and labour cheaper and domestic energy independence (=mostly coal) is important. It is especially in such economies that the cost of MWh for new-built generation capacity is only part of the equation. Therefore a systemic approach is necessary. Backup power, storage, non-available hours etc are costs that need to be taken into account when considering which capacity to build.

IMO we cannot just sit on our hands and wait that renewable cost reductions alone will magically solve the climate crisis. We need policy to support emission reductions, we need carbon pricing, public investments, you name it. Only then we have a chance to succeed.

nanning

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4836 on: July 02, 2020, 10:51:13 AM »
<snip>
Nanning, is the grid there separated from the power producer? I think it's an EU-directive IIRC.

Yes, the original provincial electrical infrastructures are privatised into several companies. Ours in Fryslân is Liander.
Their system is not very stable. Many times in parts of our province there are black-outs. They say that is because of some bad old connectors failing (why are they still there?) but I think it is incompetence. They themselves don't seem worried by the frequent (small) black-outs "we can't help it, it was this old connector" and that says it all imo.

"Grids are modernized all the time"
Are you sure of that?

Power producers here are separate and fragmented. You can choose from >20 producers as provider of electricity. Many are subcontractors. Mine is EnergieVanOns which is an umbrella company that consists of many smaller producers. My smaller producer is Trynergie, a municipality-specific provider of which I am a member.

This situation should not be much different from Germany.
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"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

blumenkraft

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4837 on: July 02, 2020, 11:27:41 AM »
Their system is not very stable. Many times in parts of our province there are black-outs. They say that is because of some bad old connectors failing (why are they still there?) but I think it is incompetence. They themselves don't seem worried by the frequent (small) black-outs "we can't help it, it was this old connector" and that says it all imo.

Sounds like they have an aversion to investment. Or not the means perhaps.

Quote
"Grids are modernized all the time"
Are you sure of that?

Well, they should. If not they fail (like yours).

Quote
This situation should not be much different from Germany.

There are 4 independent grid providers in Germany separated by region. They are responsible that there are no blackouts. There is also a political debate on how to support those companies in order to make the grid future proof. Even though they are still thinking in old structures (centralization/huge off-shore wind plants and delivery to the south) at least there is an active debate about the topic. Due to the regulations, i feel confident we are on a good way even if it's not the best way (which would be to massively expand the storage sector in a decentralized way).
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4838 on: July 02, 2020, 11:54:34 AM »
nanning, could the excess energy be sent to neighboring nations in Europe?
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4839 on: July 02, 2020, 12:14:18 PM »
Tom, this is definitely done. There is a Europen energy market. There is a stock-market kind of thing negotiating prices (https://www.energy-charts.de/price.htm).

Here you can see the import/export graph:

https://www.energy-charts.de/exchange_de.htm

Note, Germany is the biggest exporter. There is over 55% renewables in the German grid.
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kassy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4840 on: July 02, 2020, 01:40:55 PM »
Friesland is one of those areas which used little power historically so they have a ´small´grid. In the rural areas land is cheaper so lots of solar has been built there.

Since we are going off gas they will start updating the grid quicker at some point (but they are hassling about who pays what first ofc).

For follow up reports see Policy and Solutions in the Netherlands thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2952.100.html
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4841 on: July 02, 2020, 03:54:08 PM »
Friesland is one of those areas which used little power historically so they have a ´small´grid. In the rural areas land is cheaper so lots of solar has been built there.

Since we are going off gas they will start updating the grid quicker at some point (but they are hassling about who pays what first ofc).

For follow up reports see Policy and Solutions in the Netherlands thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2952.100.html
INERTIA - an underestimated obstacle to fixing the joint before it falls down?

The UK National Grid reckon they will be able to handle a more or less 100% renewable energy grid OK, especially after the grid is reconfigured and  things like big batteries are put in at strategic points.

Mind you, it took some time for inertia within management to be overcome. My guess is that in the Netherlands you've got a really really lazy regulator whose arse needs kicking into kicking the arse  of your local utility.

Perhaps you need in the Netherlands to kick the arse of your local elected representatives?
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kassy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4842 on: July 02, 2020, 07:05:11 PM »
One problem is the speed with which these lines are built and we can cut of years by removing slow parts by just hiring enough people to evaluate all the changes proposed on the government side.

And we can built them quicker too but one of the perennial background questions is who pays and this is a big backgound discussion. They will figure it out relatively soon since we are going off grid soonish.

The fun part is that our elected representatives signed on to a climate deal and then made legislation which kicked the can down the road only to be stopped in a court case which basically ruled that bookkeeping and actually acting are not the same.

Then again reminding your local politicians who they work for is never bad (you might want to fix UK water before it gets bad f.e.).
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4843 on: July 02, 2020, 09:56:04 PM »
I think all grids are undergoing  change and meeting resistance from the existing operators who seek to persevere both their profits and their obsolete fossil fuel  centralized generation paradigm at the cost of our climate .
It was not possible to a address Nannings comments with out spending the time to look into the local system and reasons for the failure to advance towards renewable generation.
GSY was just trolling  and added nothing of value besides exposing  more commentators to examples of his idiocy.   

« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 02:07:57 AM by KiwiGriff »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4844 on: July 02, 2020, 11:37:02 PM »
Yes conditions vary dramatically by country but we need to change all of them now so we need to talk about all of them. Do not criticize the discussion of the situation in wealthier countries. If you do not like the imbalance provide information on other areas.


China recently put a cap on new coal plants. Its was reported somewhere on this thread or the coal thread. Some of the projects underway are allowed to finish and others are shut down. They also are building a ton of renewable but are struggling to upgrade the grid fast enough.







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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4845 on: July 03, 2020, 12:47:16 AM »
Renewables are starting to dominate electricity generation, as almost all new capacity added to existing grids is renewable.  The cost of renewable power plants are lower than new fossil fuel plants, and in many cases, a utility can save money by shutting down an operating coal or natural gas plant and replace it with a solar or wind plant with battery backup.  That's not cherry-picking, it's reality.

And renewables will catch up in total energy demand as gasoline and diesel powered vehicles are replaced by electric vehicles.  The growth of the electric vehicle market is poised to take off in the 2020s.

https://cleanenergy.org/blog/electric-vehicles-will-kick-gas/

Quote
Electric Vehicles Will Kick Gas

As the world reels from the public health impacts of the pandemic and economic uncertainty looms large, stories about an impending electric vehicle market crash provide click-bait, little more. It is no longer a matter of if but when and where EVs will dominate auto markets.

Stan Cross | June 26, 2020

Quote
In 2020, for the first time, more new EV models are entering the market than new gas car models. That tells us where auto manufacturers’ Research & Development dollars are going. Looking forward, the automakers show no signs of slowing down. At least ten new models are due out in 2021 from auto giants like GM and Ford to niche manufacturers like Tesla and newcomer Rivian.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/investors-bullish-on-ev-charging-in-spite-of-covid-19-uncertainty

Quote
Investors Bullish on EV Charging Despite Slowdown in Car Sales

While much of the energy sector struggled under lockdown, vehicle-charging startups continued to win over investors such as BP.
Julian Spector June 10, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic forced layoffs and spending cuts across the solar industry and hammered global electric vehicle sales. But startups serving the EV charging market have continued pulling in new investments in spite of the uncertainty.

Quote
As time passed and new data came in, the outlook improved somewhat. BNEF in May predicted that the global electric passenger vehicle market would shrink by 18 percent in 2020, performing better than internal combustion engine cars, whose sales it expects to fall 23 percent. BNEF believes internal combustion engine car sales peaked in 2017 and won’t beat that level, even after a post-crisis recovery.

Quote
In a few years, electric cars will become cheaper than their gas-burning counterparts, said Geoff Eisenberg, partner at Ecosystem Integrity Fund. The ensuing adoption of batteries on wheels will merge the auto industry and the electric grid sector, with massive ramifications for both. Investors that buy into that vision can wait out a temporary pause.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4846 on: July 03, 2020, 12:59:59 AM »
Fossil fuel advocates like to point to natural gas power plants as being the main reason for the decline of coal.  That may have been the case in the past, but renewables are so cheap, that even new gas plants can't compete, despite the low prices of gas due to the current glut.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/07/02/more-utilities-bypassing-natural-gas-bridge-and-going-straight-to-renewables/

Quote
More utilities bypassing natural gas bridge and going straight to renewables
July 2, 2020 Jean Haggerty

Utilities that are transitioning away from coal are starting to view the creation of a natural gas “bridge” to renewable energy as an unnecessary step. Last week utilities in Arizona, Colorado and Florida announced plans to close one or more of their coal plants and build renewables without adding any new gas-fired generation.

Separately, staff at the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission recommended a similar gas-free transition when assessing the future capacity needs of the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM).

Renewable energy economics have been challenging the competitiveness of coal for a while now, but these latest moves indicate a greater confidence that the switch from coal to renewables can be done cost effectively and reliably without the construction of new gas fired generation as an interim step.



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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4847 on: July 03, 2020, 07:30:06 AM »
Ken it is OK when you have a large grid and can buy energy openly on the market to bridge the renewable gap.  It also helps if you have a country which spans several time zones.

However I have two images here from Gridwatch.

UK hourly average for May 2019



And the same for June 2020




As you can see, Orange is CCGT and blue/teal is wind.

Until there is something to bridge those large/days long, gaps, with relatively no wind, renewables are going to have to live alongside CCGT.

On the brighter side, the coal trace has virtually vanished.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4848 on: July 03, 2020, 08:01:34 AM »
Siemans  Has converted a coal plant to store thermal energy than convert to electricity as needed. They are looking to convert other coal plants for electricity storage. The limit is how much rock you want in your insulated building. Most of the losses are from operating the steam turbine. A number of other storage methods are in pilot projects now. Around here all new utility scale solar includes at least a few hours storage. This is at prices that are pushing fossil fuels of the grid. Renewables and energy storage technology is really taking off right now. 

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4849 on: July 03, 2020, 10:48:22 AM »
Until there is something to bridge those large/days long, gaps, with relatively no wind, renewables are going to have to live alongside CCGT.

I do not see the same story.  There is something and it is only just startign to be implemented.

Until renewables are able to provide 100% power for a period then the technology required to displace gas at other times will not take hold.  There is little point in storing electricity generated if that energy can go straight into the grid.  What those tables show is there is still some room for more renewable generation, but it's getting close, another 5GW of generation at peak times will be sufficient for that. 

Markets are starting to change to take this up, the second liquid air storage plant is now being built, new renewables are increasingly including storage.  The UK market has about 1-2GW of non hydro storage now, but 15 GW in pipeline and being built over the next 3 years. 

Initially Coal was replaced by primarily Gas, now gas is starting to be displaced by renewables.  Next renewables will leverage storage to continue this eating into fossil fuel.   I think the direction of travel is clear.

https://infogram.com/british-electricity-since-2012-1g502y9z1okdpjd?live

Incidentally, the higher wind generation this year is not due to a huge jump in capacity, it's the new interconnector that allows scottish generation to power north wales and merseyside.