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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4900 on: July 28, 2020, 08:15:53 PM »
^^^
It looks like China and India can skip the "natural gas bridge" and go straight to renewables.  That would give them a huge competitive advantage over the western countries with billions in stranded assets related to natural gas infrastructure.

We're already seeing that LNG export terminals in the US are being underutilized with the glut in natural gas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Nat-Gas-Prices-Crash-As-US-Exports-Fall.html

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Nat Gas Prices Crash As U.S. Exports Fall
By Julianne Geiger - Jul 20, 2020

The price of natural gas fell nearly 5% on Monday, as lower U.S. LNG exports threaten to exacerbate inventories, which are already significantly higher than the five-year average.

The price of natural gas was just $1.636 as of 4:27pm EDT, a drop pf $0.082 or 4.77%.

The EIA reported that U.S. LNG exports fell week over week for the week ending July 15, with just four vessels with a combined carrying capacity of 15 Bcf leaving the United States that week. This is the lowest volume since the end of 2016—a time when the Sabine Pass LNG was the only LNG export facility in the United States, according to FX Empire.

Last year at this time, natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities were setting records, according to the EIA. This year, the pandemic is cramping the style for the cleaner fuel, and inventories are well above the five-year average, at 3.178 billion cubic feet as of July 10. That compares to the year ago levels of 2.515 Bcf, and the five-year average of 2.742 Bcf.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4901 on: July 28, 2020, 08:19:56 PM »
India is aiming to have renewables supply 60% of their power by 2030.

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/india-to-have-60-renewable-energy-by-2030-power-minister-rk-singh/2031205/

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India to have 60% renewable energy by 2030: Power minister RK Singh
July 21, 2020 9:55 PM

In September last year at the United Nations Climate Action Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced increasing the renewable energy target to 450 GW by 2030 from 175 GW by 2022.

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The minister explained that by 2030, 450 GW of power generation capacity would come from renewables like solar and wind. Besides 60 GW would come from hydro-electric power, he said.

About the progress on clean energy, he said that India’s clean energy capacity including under development projects and hydro electric power is around 190 GW, which is more than the targetted 175 GW by 2022.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4902 on: July 28, 2020, 08:41:15 PM »
US Energy Data - mostly to April / May 2020 from the US EIA @ https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

Wind+Solar continue the upward trend despite covid.

Still a long way to go c.f. total energy consumption, although coal continues to die.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4903 on: July 30, 2020, 07:46:34 PM »
The Public Regulation Commission of New Mexico approved a plan to replace a coal-fired power plant with solar farms and battery storage.  The considered and rejected plans that included natural gas fired-power plants.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1480491/prc-approves-allrenewable-san-juan-replacement-power.html

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PRC approves all-renewable plan to replace power from San Juan
By Kevin Robinson-Avila / Journal Staff Writer
Published: Wednesday, July 29th, 2020

The state Public Regulation Commission unanimously approved an all-renewable energy plan Wednesday morning to replace the coal-fired San Juan Generating Station near Farmington.

The 5-0 decision sets in motion plans for Public Service Company of New Mexico to sign power purchase agreements with third-party providers to build 650 megawatts of solar farms in San Juan, Rio Arriba and McKinley counties, plus 300 MW of backup battery storage. Investment in those new resources could total about $1 billion, bringing 1,200 or more construction jobs to the northwestern region of the state.

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Various power replacement options were discussed in public hearings in January, including proposals to rely entirely on solar energy and battery storage, and others that called for some new gas-fired generation to shore up system reliability as more renewables are added to the grid.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4904 on: August 05, 2020, 12:53:51 AM »
BP announced that it's shifting substantial resources from fossil fuel extraction to developing renewable energy.  They've set a goal of developing 20 GW or renewables capacity by 2025 and 50 GW by 2030.  They only have 2.5 GW now.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bp-to-invest-5b-a-year-on-low-carbon-and-cut-fossil-fuel-output-by-40-percent-by-2030

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BP Aims to Build 50GW of Renewables by 2030, Cut Fossil Fuel Output by 40%

The oil supermajor lays out further details on its path toward net-zero, keeping ahead of its fossil fuel rivals in its energy transition ambitions.
John Parnell August 04, 2020

BP will cut its oil and gas output by 40 percent by 2030 and increase its low-carbon investment tenfold by then, the company announced Tuesday as it begins to detail its 2050 net-zero strategy.

BP, which first revealed its net-zero ambitions in February, says it will ramp up its annual low-carbon investment from $500 million in 2019 to $5 billion per year by 2030, with an interim goal of $3 billion to $4 billion per year by 2025.

BP is now targeting 50 gigawatts of renewables capacity by 2030, an ambition that puts it on a level with French utility giant EDF. BP's renewables target includes a 20-gigawatt goal by 2025, up from the 2.5 gigawatts it has today.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/business/bp-oil-clean-energy/index.html

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BP will slash oil production by 40% and pour billions into green energy
By Hanna Ziady, CNN Business
Tue August 4, 2020

BP is planning to slash oil and gas production and pour billions of dollars into clean energy as part of a major strategic overhaul unveiled on Tuesday, alongside a huge second quarter loss and dividend cut.

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BP (BP) has already sold its petrochemicals unit, and announced plans to cut 10,000 jobs as it reels from a crash in oil prices and tries to pivot towards renewable energy. The company said Tuesday it expects restructuring to cost $1.5 billion in 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-results-breakingviews/breakingviews-bp-gets-serious-about-tough-corporate-reshaping-idUSKCN2501DO

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August 4, 2020
Breakingviews - BP gets serious about tough corporate reshaping
Ed Cropley

LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bernard Looney is betting BP’s house on his green energy ambitions. Besides cutting the dividend to free up cash for renewable investment, the chief executive of what is still essentially a 61 billion pound oil and gas company plans to reduce hydrocarbon production by 40% over the next decade.

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Then there is growing the new. Some of the money not spent on oil and gas will go towards a tenfold increase in green energy investment over the decade, to $5 billion a year. That is roughly a third of forecast annual capital expenditure over the next five years. Tangible targets include 70,000 electric vehicle charging points and 50 gigawatts of renewable power capacity. 



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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4905 on: August 12, 2020, 02:20:52 PM »
For data nerds EIA (US) has added real time generation and demand numbers. They have not added information by primary fuel but hopefully that will come.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4906 on: August 12, 2020, 02:29:09 PM »
hourly data for fuel type is available by region the next day.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4907 on: August 18, 2020, 08:12:30 PM »
Solar capacity is increasing rapidly in Texas.

https://www.texasobserver.org/solar-texas/

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Texas Solar Hits a Turning Point
As the coronavirus pandemic devastates the state’s already flailing oil and gas industry, solar energy production is on a trajectory for record growth.

Nancy Nusser
Aug 13, 2020

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According to the  Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the nonprofit that oversees Texas’s electrical grid, the state’s utility-scale solar capacity (the big solar farms that connect to the grid) is expected to increase 150 percent this year to 5,777 megawatts. Next year, installed solar capacity is expected to grow more than 130 percent to 13,449 megawatts, according to ERCOT, which relies on information provided by developers.

Momentum has slowed slightly since COVID-19 began spreading across Texas in March, quarantining workers and disrupting supply chains. But unlike the oil and gas industry, the solar industry has not been devastated. “There have been impacts,” says Charlie Hemmeline, executive director of the Texas Solar Power Association. “But big picture, 2020 was slated to be solar’s best year in Texas, and we’re still on track for that to be the case.”

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4908 on: August 19, 2020, 05:58:27 PM »
Turkey has opened it's first solar panel manufacturing plant.  It has a capacity to manufacture 500 MW of panels annually.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/turkey-opens-1st-integrated-solar-panel-manufacturing-facility/news

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Turkey opens 1st integrated solar panel manufacturing facility
by DAILY SABAH
ISTANBUL Business
Aug 19, 2020

Turkey on Wednesday witnessed the opening of the country's first and Europe and the Middle East’s only integrated solar panel manufacturing facility, which promises to further develop the country's renewable energy resources.

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The facility will be operated through an investment of $400 million (TL 2.9 billion) at a 100,000-square-meter (nearly 25-acre) closed area and will employ 1,400 people, Erdoğan said in his speech.

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Turkey has managed to become ninth in the world and third in Europe among countries that have increased their installed solar power capacity since it started bringing solar plants into action in 2014, Dönmez said.

With the commissioning of the plant, the share of solar energy in electricity production in Turkey will increase by 25% and the annual emission of 2 million tons of carbon dioxide will be prevented, the minister added.

Kalyon's facility will produce components for Turkey’s biggest solar power plant, which will be established in the Karapınar district of the central Anatolian province of Konya as part of the first solar Renewable Energy Resource Zone (YEKA) tender with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4909 on: August 21, 2020, 06:10:53 PM »
Jeffrey Ubben's new fund Inclusive Capital bets on microgrids amid California blackouts
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Jeffrey Ubben is betting on widescale adoption of clean energy through his new fund Inclusive Capital Partners, which he launched in June after stepping away from ValueAct to focus on sustainable investing full time.

His fund is the lead investor in a company being formed through a partnership between Schneider Electric and private equity firm Huck Capital. The new venture will develop and run on-site microgrids for commercial and industrial buildings.

Companies' motivations for transitioning to renewable-powered microgrids are many. Not only does it reduce a corporation's carbon footprint, it also provides greater resiliency. The wildfires in California and subsequent blackouts illustrate the shortcomings of the current grid system.

But small and medium-sized companies often lack the resources and capital for the high upfront costs associated with building microgrids. The newly formed venture will target this area of the market, and aims to develop at least $1 billion worth of renewable energy projects over the next five years.

"As the grid continues to become less reliable, and the pricing of the power to provide energy off the grid becomes more variable, energy that's secure and prices that are fixed are super attractive to end customers so you know we're seeing a lot of momentum in the category," Steve McBee, founder and CEO of Huck Capital told CNBC.

Cost is also a driving force, and McBee believes that reliably-priced power will shave about 20% from customers' utility bills. The company will also own all of its customers' data, which will help it understand the unique energy needs of its clients. Ubben said his investment in the partnership was natural since "the environmental goal is perfectly aligned with the business goal."

Currently, about 90% of buildings in the U.S. and Canada are small and medium sized, which means a potentially large total addressable market. "This is such a small market right now, $4.5 billion, but it's going to grow 2X every three years from here we believe," he said.

On the emissions side, the average commercial microgrid using renewables leads to 10,000 tons of greenhouse gas savings over its lifespan, which is equivalent to roughly 21 million car miles, according to a statement from Huck Capital and Schneider. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/jeffrey-ubbens-new-fund-inclusive-capital-bets-on-microgrids-amid-california-blackouts.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

morganism

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4910 on: August 22, 2020, 07:59:17 PM »
'Electric mud’ teems with new, mysterious bacteria



"Fashioned into a film, nanowires can generate electricity from the moisture in the air. The film generates power, researchers believe, when a moisture gradient develops between the film’s upper and lower edges. (The upper edge is more exposed to moisture.) As the water’s hydrogen and oxygen atoms separate because of the gradient, a charge develops and electrons flow. Yao and his team reported on 17 February in Nature that such a film can create enough power to light a light-emitting diode, and 17 such devices connected together can power a cellphone. The approach is “a revolutionary technology to get renewable, green, and cheap energy,” says Qu Liangti, a materials scientist at Tsinghua University. (Others are more cautious, noting that past attempts to wring energy from moisture, using graphene or polymers, have not panned out.)"

The microbes also alter the properties of mud, “They are particularly efficient … ecosystem engineers.” Cable bacteria “grow like wildfire,” she says; on intertidal oyster reefs, she has found, a single cubic centimeter of mud can contain 2859 meters of cables, which cements particles in place, possibly making sediment more stable for marine organisms.

The bacteria also alter the mud’s chemistry, making layers closer to the surface more alkaline and deeper layers more acidic, Malkin has found. Such pH gradients can affect “numerous geochemical cycles,” she says, including those involving arsenic, manganese, and iron, creating opportunities for other microbes."

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/electric-mud-teems-new-mysterious-bacteria

Bruce Steele

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4911 on: August 22, 2020, 08:49:30 PM »
Morganism, There is mention of cable bacteria reducing methane in rice cultivation. Here is an article about the cable bacteria study on rice cultivation. I wonder if it might be used somehow to treat other agricultural effluent streams that could reduce methane production from agriculture?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200420105045.htm

Utilizing natural processes to effect a reduction in methane might create a new career choice , a cable bacteria farmer. Where can I buy some ?

Here is the open access paper on cable bacteria and rice cultivation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15812-w
« Last Edit: August 22, 2020, 09:31:24 PM by Bruce Steele »

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4912 on: August 24, 2020, 06:30:26 PM »
A Chinese coal mining company is building a solar panel manufacturing plant with an initial capacity of 3 GW of panels per year.  The company plans to expand the capacity to 10 GW per year.

https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2020-08-24/chinese-coal-miner-to-make-unusual-foray-into-solar-production?

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A Chinese Coal Miner Is Getting Into Solar Production
Bloomberg News
August 23, 2020

Mid-tier Chinese coal miner Shanxi Coal International Energy Group is planning a significant investment in the competing business of making high-tech solar power cells.

The state-owned firm will lead a joint venture to build a 3-gigawatt solar manufacturing plant for 3.19 billion yuan ($461 million), according to a statement on Friday. It’s the first phase of a project that will grow to 10 gigawatts -- the equivalent of the generating power of 10 nuclear power plants -- producing high-efficiency cells through so-called heterojunction technology.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4913 on: August 24, 2020, 07:43:05 PM »
Australia currently has more than 100 GW of renewable energy projects in development.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Australia-To-Lead-Energy-Transition.html

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Australia To Lead Energy Transition
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 24, 2020

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“Australia currently has a strong renewable pipeline of 102GW, comprising of projects in nascent and advanced stages. Out of this, 102G of wind and solar PV represent almost 90% of the pipeline,” said Somik Das, Senior Power Analyst at GlobalData.

“The government has put the final nail in the coffin for coal-fired power plants, having no plans to continue coal and gas generators beyond the planned retirement dates. In fact, there is potential for coal and gas generators to retire earlier if renewables provide greater cost benefits before the 2040 horizon,” Das noted.

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Under the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) 20-year blueprint for Australia’s power generation, by 2034-35, renewable generation may, at times, deliver 85 percent of generation. By 2040, in the step-change scenario, variable renewable energy could account for up to 94.2 percent of electricity generation. 

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4914 on: August 25, 2020, 07:08:13 PM »
The cost of solar power continues to decrease.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/08/24/portugals-second-pv-auction-draws-world-record-low-bid-of-0-0132-kwh/

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Portugal’s second PV auction draws world record low bid of $0.0132/kWh

According to financial newspaper Expresso, the lowest bid in the exercise was €0.0112/kWh, slightly lower than the $0.0135/kWh submitted by French energy group EDF and China’s JinkoPower in a 2 GW tender held in Abu Dhabi, a price which was confirmed last month.
August 24, 2020 Emiliano Bellini

Although Portugal’s second solar energy auction is not expected to be finalized until tomorrow, financial newspaper Expresso has revealed the 700 MW procurement round secured a world record lowest bid of €0.0112/kWh ($0.0132).

If confirmed, that price would be $0.0003 lower than the $0.0135/kWh bid submitted by French energy group EDF and China’s JinkoPower in a 2 GW tender held in Abu Dhabi, which was cofirmed in July.

Portugal’s first solar auction, last summer, saw the Directorate General for Energy and Geology allocate 1.15 GW of solar generation capacity – less than the 1.4 GW originally planned despite the exercise being oversubscribed. That procurement round delivered a solar electricity price tariff of €0.0147/kWh, marking a new world record for that time.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4915 on: August 25, 2020, 07:23:32 PM »
Namibia and Botswana are partnering to develop a 5GW solar photovoltaic project.

https://www.afrik21.africa/en/namibia-botswana-authorities-fast-track-solar-pv-mega-project-of-5-gwp/

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NAMIBIA/BOTSWANA: Authorities fast-track solar PV mega-project of 5 GWp
By Jean Marie Takouleu - Published on August 25 2020

Namibia and Botswana are on the verge of developing one, if not the largest solar photovoltaic project on the African continent. The two neighboring countries in southern Africa want to take advantage of their favorable environment to produce 5,000 MWp of solar energy. Afrik 21 has announced the launch of negotiations for the implementation of the project in September 2019. Tom Alweendo, Namibia’s Minister of Mines and Energy announced a few days ago that the signing of an agreement between Namibia was imminent.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4916 on: August 25, 2020, 10:32:25 PM »
(US) Buried deeply in EIA data


Big News

1.86 GW of renewable displaced 1.34 GW of fossil fuels capacity in June 2020
16.89 GW of renewable displaced 8.95 GW of fossil fuels capacity in past 12 months ending in June 2020. This trend appears to be accelerating!


June capacity Data
renewables have net gain of 1864.7 MW
fossil fuels have net loss of 1343.8 MW

June year to date capacity data
renewables have net gain of 7839.8 MW
fossil fuels have net loss of 2009.8 M

June full year capacity data
renewables have net gain of 16887.3 MW
fossil fuels have net loss of -8949.9 MW

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4917 on: August 25, 2020, 10:50:41 PM »
More Hidden News
34.5 GW of new renewable next 12 months a 14% increase in renewable capacity

« Last Edit: August 25, 2020, 10:59:18 PM by interstitial »

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4918 on: August 26, 2020, 06:00:48 PM »
Well designed solar farms over agricultural land can help increase crop yields while producing clean energy.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/How-Solar-Farms-Can-Coexist-With-Agriculture.html

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How Solar Farms Can Coexist With Agriculture
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 25, 2020

One of the main arguments against extensive solar power installations is that solar farms require a lot of land—land that the agriculture industry craves as well.

But what if it doesn’t have to be an either/or choice? What if solar farms could co-exist with agricultural farms? 

They can. Recent studies and pilot projects in Europe and the United States have shown that dual-use solar farm/farming is possible.

The so-called agrophotovoltaic (agroPV) projects can benefit crops because the solar modules serve a dual purpose—not only do they generate electricity, but they also protect crops from hail and keep shade-loving crops such as leafy vegetables out of direct sunlight while still providing some light via semitransparent solar modules.

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For those concerned that solar modules could overheat and dry up crops, the guide says that solar modules actually cool crops and vegetation due to shading, and keep them warmer at night. Studies have also shown that there was no impact on crop growth rates. In addition, grazing sheep can be used to control vegetation, as they do not climb or harm the installations.

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AgroPV may not be feasible for huge single-crop farms, but it can boost the yield from certain plants. Preliminary results suggest that cherry tomato yields at an Arizona site of NREL solar farm/farm project have doubled and need less water when grown in the shade of solar panels.

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Still, various studies have shown that low-impact solar modules can benefit crop yields. The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE in Germany found last year that the performance of an agroPV system at a project in the very hot summer of 2018 was beneficial to both crops and power generation.

“Based on the 2018 potato yield, the land use efficiency rose to 186 percent per hectare with the agrophotovoltaic system,” Stephan Schindele of Fraunhofer ISE said. Another Fraunhofer ISE pilot study carried out for the Indian state of Maharashtra showed that shading effects and less evaporation result in up to 40 percent higher yields for tomatoes and cotton crops.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4919 on: August 26, 2020, 10:23:12 PM »
12 month trailing average graphs attached using data from the US EIA Monthly Energy Review 26 Aug

Solar + Wind on the upward trend, but still it's oil & gas that dominate primary energy supply.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4920 on: August 27, 2020, 08:58:31 AM »
Is hydro in the "Other" section in the second graf ?

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4921 on: August 27, 2020, 05:59:08 PM »
(US)
[/size]FOR THE FIRST TIME NET FOSSIL FUEL CAPACITY DROPPED 8.95 GW in the US.[/size]

Yes we have a long way to go to get to the point were no new fossil fuel plants are built or even operating but this  is a milestone.


Costs for renewables are lower than for any new fossil fuels and even many existing plants we are seeing the impact of that change in new plants being built. The same data for a year ago show fossil fuels were increasing on a net basis. Going from a net gain of 2083.0 MW to a net loss of 8949.9 MW is a compete turn around for US electricity. That is an 11032.9 MW reduction in new fossil fuel capacity.


June 2019 full year capacity data
renewables have net gain of 13272.1 MW
fossil fuels have NET GAIN of 2083.0 MW


June 2020 full year capacity data
renewables have net gain of 16887.3 MW
fossil fuels have NET LOSS of -8949.9 MW

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4922 on: August 27, 2020, 06:28:02 PM »
Is hydro in the "Other" section in the second graf ?

sidd
Yes.
I admit to concentrating on solar + wind as the renewable energy that is the future.  Cheapest & easiest to implement especially with big batteries as a plus.
I exclude...
Hydro  - means dams. Building dams is a hugely contentious issue.
BioMass - in the USA means mostly monoculture plantations- loblolly?
Nuclear - and some call it green energy. Crap.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4923 on: August 27, 2020, 07:43:09 PM »
I attended an annual US hydro conference a few years back. 4 years ago? The introductory speaker noted that Hydro electricity could double without building another dam. Later I had dinner with a VP at Duke energy. Duke has been and  was at the time hostile to renewable energy. He claimed none of those projects were economically viable. Later In one of the sessions a presenter stated that a 25% increase in hydro was economically viable. One thing they all agreed on was building new dams in the US was a nonstarter. I forget the ratio but part of that was from re-powering some existing dams with more efficient turbines (I know of one Snoqualmie falls was built in 1898 and the original powerhouse turbines have not been replaced). The rest was from adding turbines to existing dams. Usually the cost of running new high voltage lines for small MW projects is cost prohibitive. New hydro in the US won't help much. Fluctuations in Hydro are mostly due to precipitation not changes. New hydro is usually <10 MW per project.
In june 2020 previous 12 months hydro had a net loss of 196.8 MW.



I support keeping existing nuclear as long as it is safe until renewables have replaced all fossil fuels. Nuclear is too expensive and cost overruns at the new Vogtle unit are a final nail in the coffin of US nuclear for power.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4924 on: August 27, 2020, 08:01:57 PM »
Is hydro in the "Other" section in the second graf ?

sidd
Yes.
I admit to concentrating on solar + wind as the renewable energy that is the future.  Cheapest & easiest to implement especially with big batteries as a plus.
I exclude...
Hydro  - means dams. Building dams is a hugely contentious issue.
BioMass - in the USA means mostly monoculture plantations- loblolly?
Nuclear - and some call it green energy. Crap.
"Hydro  - means dams. Building dams is a hugely contentious issue."
Could it not be said that the siting of turbines and solar panel arrays are also contentious?

Pumped-storage hydro also addresses the problems of storage (battery) and very fast response at peak demand.
Interesting link and surprise-surprise, who is miles ahead of the field, China!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations

I suspect that many geological and political factors will determine the future of renewable energy strategy both locally and nationally.

"Nuclear - and some call it green energy. Crap."
Agreed.
However, 'nuclear' fusion...well that could be a different ball game and make the word 'nuclear' acceptable. There is a lot of money being spent on this project at the moment.
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4925 on: August 27, 2020, 11:43:24 PM »
I attended an annual US hydro conference a few years back. 4 years ago? ........One thing they all agreed on was building new dams in the US was a nonstarter. ........
 

Just in case we need an example of new large hydro that is not needed, not viable, not affordable, and, it appears, not even possible, we have Site C on the Peace River in British Columbia, Canada. Yet nonetheless, it proceeds. At least for now.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/08/24/Horgan-Folly-We-All-Pay/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=082520-2&utm_campaign=editorial

D-Penguin

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4926 on: August 28, 2020, 02:26:44 AM »
I attended an annual US hydro conference a few years back. 4 years ago? ........One thing they all agreed on was building new dams in the US was a nonstarter. ........
 

Just in case we need an example of new large hydro that is not needed, not viable, not affordable, and, it appears, not even possible, we have Site C on the Peace River in British Columbia, Canada. Yet nonetheless, it proceeds. At least for now.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/08/24/Horgan-Folly-We-All-Pay/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=082520-2&utm_campaign=editorial

Just a thought - A pumped-storage hydro generator need not necessarily require the construction of a new dam.

An existing natural or constructed reservoir at a higher level, connected to a natural or constructed water storage basin at a lower level, with the reverse pump station and turbine housing located at the base of the escarpment (valley floor level) could satisfy the engineering requirements. Such a project configuration would avoid the problems so vividly described in your link to the report about Site C on the Peace River in British Columbia, Canada. What a fiasco!

Lesson to learn - Ban politicians from making decisions that should rightfully be made by independent Civil Engineers!
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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4927 on: August 28, 2020, 04:12:36 AM »
Just a thought - A pumped-storage hydro generator need not necessarily require the construction of a new dam.

An existing natural or constructed reservoir at a higher level, connected to a natural or constructed water storage basin at a lower level, with the reverse pump station and turbine housing located at the base of the escarpment (valley floor level) could satisfy the engineering requirements.
Indeed.

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/05/07/israels-300-mw-mount-gilboa-pumped-storage-begins-operating

Quote
Israel’s 300-MW Mount Gilboa Pumped Storage begins operating

The 300-MW Mount Gilboa Pumped Storage project in Israel has begun commercial operations, according to a LinkedIn post from G.H. Development.

The US$500 million project is located 60 km east of Haifa. It generates 3,000 MWh of electricity annually and took five years to construct.

According to Electra, the project was established by a special partnership between Electra Construction, Electra Energy (formerly Elco), and Solel Boneh and was to be operated by Alstom (GE bought Alstom Power in 2015). In 2014, Alstom signed a deal to provide day-to-day operation and maintenance services for the plant for an 18-year period.

The Mount Gilboa project is composed of two reservoirs, each 2.5 million m3, connected by a 500-m-deep shaft and large pipes. The 50-m-tall underground powerhouse contains two 150-MW turbines from Alstom/GE, along with generators and step-up transformers.

G.H. Development says this is the first hydroelectric pumped storage in Israel, with two more to be built.

Simon

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4928 on: August 28, 2020, 08:48:59 AM »
You might like to read about Dinorwig pumped storage in North Wales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Impressive

D-Penguin

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4929 on: August 28, 2020, 04:42:34 PM »
You might like to read about Dinorwig pumped storage in North Wales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Impressive

Yes - But not quite so impressive as China with 22 Sites in operation and an additional 32 sites at completion or near completion stage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations
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Simon

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4930 on: August 28, 2020, 08:51:51 PM »
Thanks for link. Pumped storage is becoming an important player in buffering the supply and demand inconsistencies. Large scale battery storage as advocated by Musk I am not sure about especially if the demand is large. The intermittency problem though can and will be overcome and vast solar PV arrays will have their day I am sure.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4931 on: August 28, 2020, 08:57:53 PM »
The US energy storage capacity could grow to 100 GW by 2030.  There is currently only 500 MW installed with projects underway to increase that to just over 1 GW.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Energy-Storage-Boom-Is-About-To-Begin.html

Quote
The U.S. Energy Storage Boom Is About To Begin
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 27, 2020

The rise of renewable energy sources and the decarbonization of the grid will need new energy storage installations in the coming years to provide flexible energy and capacity. Alongside rising shares of solar and wind power in the electricity mix, the U.S. is set to see increased energy storage installation as storage is critical to ensuring more solar and wind power generation.

America has the potential to see 100 gigawatts (GW) of new energy storage deployed by 2030, the U.S. Energy Storage Association (ESA) said in a new white paper this month.

That is an ambitious target, considering that in its previous estimate from 2017, ESA projected 35 GW of energy storage – including batteries, thermal, mechanical, and pumped storage hydro – installed by 2025.

Quote
The most recent U.S. Energy Storage Monitor from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the ESA shows that a total of 523 MW of energy storage was deployed in the United States. This year, the storage deployment is set to double to nearly 1.2 GW, despite the coronavirus crisis that has changed and challenged energy markets and company plans. In 2025, energy storage deployment is set to reach 7 GW, representing six-fold growth compared to the new storage installations in 2020.

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4932 on: August 28, 2020, 10:53:50 PM »
There is an interesting little site that takes historic generation numbers and allows you to plug in extra renewables and storage to see how they would've impacted the energy mix.

https://energynumbers.info/balancing/

I tend to change the power to gas into nuclear to try and work out the figures, but generally scaling up renewables to get 85% is fairly straightforward, over that is hard and required lots of storage.

D-Penguin

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4933 on: August 28, 2020, 11:10:15 PM »
The US energy storage capacity could grow to 100 GW by 2030.  There is currently only 500 MW installed with projects underway to increase that to just over 1 GW.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Energy-Storage-Boom-Is-About-To-Begin.html

Quote
The U.S. Energy Storage Boom Is About To Begin
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 27, 2020


The rise of renewable energy sources and the decarbonization of the grid will need new energy storage installations in the coming years to provide flexible energy and capacity. Alongside rising shares of solar and wind power in the electricity mix, the U.S. is set to see increased energy storage installation as storage is critical to ensuring more solar and wind power generation.

America has the potential to see 100 gigawatts (GW) of new energy storage deployed by 2030, the U.S. Energy Storage Association (ESA) said in a new white paper this month.

That is an ambitious target, considering that in its previous estimate from 2017, ESA projected 35 GW of energy storage – including batteries, thermal, mechanical, and pumped storage hydro – installed by 2025.

Quote
The most recent U.S. Energy Storage Monitor from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the ESA shows that a total of 523 MW of energy storage was deployed in the United States. This year, the storage deployment is set to double to nearly 1.2 GW, despite the coronavirus crisis that has changed and challenged energy markets and company plans. In 2025, energy storage deployment is set to reach 7 GW, representing six-fold growth compared to the new storage installations in 2020.

Renewable energy policy should take a holistic view to energy supply.

Just one example:-

Regeneration and landscape enhancement of disused coal mines incorporating a pumped-hydro energy storage and electricity supply system.

At ground level
- Construct a reservoir water resource for recreation, domestic water supply and feed to pumped-hydro electricity generating station.
- High quality soft landscaping to complete the project at ground level
Below ground level
- Utilize existing vertical access shafts for conduits to carry charging and disharging water supply
- Utilize existing tunnels to locate reversible pumps and turbines
- Utilize existing tunnels and chambers for water storage
- Utilise existing tunnels for cable distribution to local, regional or nation network location

At least if there is a leak that leads to the water-table level the contaminant is only water and not radioactive nuclear waste!
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4934 on: August 29, 2020, 12:05:57 AM »

Quote
The most recent U.S. Energy Storage Monitor from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the ESA shows that a total of 523 MW of energy storage was deployed in the United States.
EIA shows US battery storage in june at 1053 mw in operation.

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4935 on: August 29, 2020, 12:41:29 AM »
These numbers are confusing. Storage should be measured in MWh, not MW.
The maximum discharge rate (in MW) is an important spec of a storage system but is not its headline number which should be storage capacity.

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4936 on: August 29, 2020, 10:04:20 AM »
The whole industry and media are guilty of this.  I suspect it's because currently most is very short term load balancing/frequency control rather than meaningful storage.

Hornsdale for example, initially provided 70MW for 10 minutes and 30MW for 3 hours.

Makes it currently impossible to know how much current storage can actually help.  You tend to have to rely on how many hours storage they say but as you can see from Hornsdale, a 100MW battery is not providing 300MWh, despite claiming 3 hours storage.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4937 on: August 29, 2020, 10:24:44 AM »
Large scale battery storage as advocated by Musk I am not sure about.

Don't get me started on Elon's storage ambitions! Tesla's recent application for a UK "power generation" licence:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/04/tesla-applies-for-uk-power-generation-licence/

Plus part of my current campaign for "mobile" battery storage versus "static" storage:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/bad-weather-batters-global-electricity-grids/

Quote
The CAISO web site also reveals that California currently benefits from a modest amount of grid connected battery storage, which was called upon to discharge at about 2:30 PM at the time of the sudden drop in solar generation.

All of which leads us to ask, amongst other things, whether the rolling blackouts could have been avoided had California been able to call upon the services of a large fleet of vehicle-to-grid capable electric vehicles at the critical juncture?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4938 on: August 29, 2020, 11:17:29 AM »
The US energy storage capacity could grow to 100 GW by 2030.  There is currently only 500 MW installed with projects underway to increase that to just over 1 GW.

According to CAISO battery storage actually delivered ~300 MW peak during the August 15th "rolling blackout" event:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4939 on: August 30, 2020, 09:53:20 PM »
These numbers are confusing. Storage should be measured in MWh, not MW.
The maximum discharge rate (in MW) is an important spec of a storage system but is not its headline number which should be storage capacity.

The reason MW  was cited in my info was because power plants are reported in MW. I have read this argument before in an article or three at cleantechnica and I disagree.  For grid operators the maximum amount of energy a source can provide is far more important than overall capacity. If I make a 1 TWH battery capable of providing 1 MW. I have a very expensive waste of money with little impact.  Changing the connection to a 100 MW makes this a large seasonal storage asset. A 10 GW connection and the same 1 TWH battery could probably displace all the peaker turbines in the US. Batteries need 2 headline numbers not one.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4940 on: August 31, 2020, 03:33:27 AM »
According to this article, the world currently consumes around 20 TW of energy:

https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/howmuchenergy/

Around 71 pct of the world population earns less than $10 daily:

https://money.cnn.com/2015/07/08/news/economy/global-low-income/

In order to lift them out of poverty and become as wealthy as the ave. U.S. citizen (which the 29 pct want as their own income is dependent on increasing sales of goods and services to growing consumer markets), the world will need around 70 TW of energy.

This only refers to the current population, which is set to increase to around 10-11 billion because of momentum (i.e., lower birthrate but large numbers of young people in developing countries). To meet the needs of that additional population, the world will need around 90 TW at the low end and 120 TW at the high end.

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4941 on: August 31, 2020, 04:35:08 AM »
If you're trying to prove that 10 billion people cannot live as the average American does, you're preaching to the choir. But some comments about the numbers are justified:
* Assuming the average American as the goal/steady state is a harsh assumption. Americans live a wasteful lifestyle. Typical European energy consumption is about half, at a rather similar level of living.
* The concept of Primary Energy is very misleading, as it includes all the heat not used for any useful work. Since this is the renewables thread, and renewables have very little inefficiencies resulting in waste heat, it would be more appropriate to consider actual energy used. This decreases energy consumption by about 2/3.

So the world would need 15-20 TW of renewable energy production to bring forecast population to a European level of living.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4942 on: August 31, 2020, 07:23:40 PM »
The US energy storage capacity could grow to 100 GW by 2030.  There is currently only 500 MW installed with projects underway to increase that to just over 1 GW.

According to CAISO battery storage actually delivered ~300 MW peak during the August 15th "rolling blackout" event:

CAISO is the California grid operator.  It would appear that California alone has 300 MW capacity, so not too hard to see the rest of the US with another 200 MW with more under construction.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4943 on: August 31, 2020, 07:30:49 PM »
When looking at the nicely colored graphs that are frequently posted here, keep in mind that the power being produced today is based on financial decisions that were made many years ago.  Given the low cost of renewables, most of the fossil fuel (and nuclear) assets in operation today will be phased out of operation well before the end of their useful lives.

In the US, new renewables are now less expensive than new fossil fuel plants without subsidies.  And the costs of renewables is continuing to decrease.  That's going to result in a massive shift in investment to renewables and away from other forms of electrical production.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/30/where-will-renewable-energy-be-in-5-years/

Quote
Where Will Renewable Energy Be in 5 Years?
If the recent past is any indication, renewable energy has a very bright future.
Matthew DiLallo
Aug 30, 2020

The renewable energy industry has evolved over the years. It wasn't all that long ago that it was so expensive to install new capacity that it required a massive amount of government subsidies to make it worth the investment. However, those costs have come down so dramatically in recent years that most renewable energy projects don't need incentives to survive.

That trend will probably become even more pronounced over the next five years. Here's a look at where the sector appears to be headed by 2025.

Quote
Renewable energy companies fully expect those costs to continue coming down over the next five years. According to industry forecasts, by 2025, onshore wind will be the cheapest form of electricity even with the phase-outs of production tax credits. Meanwhile, solar will fall from its current level of slightly more expensive than natural gas to the bottom of the cost curve by 2025, making it the second cheapest power source even after the expiration of investment tax credits.

The industry also expects the cost of battery storage to keep declining. Ten years ago, it cost $71 to $81 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for a four-hour battery storage adder. That cost has plunged over the years and is currently between $8 and $14 per MWh. By 2022, it should be down to $4 to $9, according to an industry forecast.

Given that outlook, leading renewable energy producer NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE) expects that near-firm wind and solar (i.e., with a four-hour battery storage adder) will be cheaper to build than all but the most efficient natural gas power plants within the next five years. In its view, near-firm wind will cost between $20 to $30 per MWh, while near-firm solar will be between $30-$40 per MWh, which puts them at or below the cost of natural gas at $30 to $40 per MWh.

This dramatic improvement in costs compared to fossil fuels should power a significant investment surge in the coming years. After spending $2 trillion over the past five years on new renewable energy capacity, the industry could invest $5 trillion to $10 trillion over the next 10 years. Though with costs coming down, these dollars will stretch much further, enabling companies and governments to build significantly more capacity over prior years, meaning the pace of new wind and solar additions should accelerate. According to one estimate, the industry will go from building an average of 10 gigawatts (GW) apiece of wind and solar per year in the 2019 to 2022 time frame to 12-15 GW per year of wind and 18-20 GW per year of solar between 2023 and 2030.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4944 on: August 31, 2020, 07:40:24 PM »
In 2019, the US added more than 9 GW of new wind power.  Capacity factors continue to increase and costs continue to decrease.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/nine-gigawatts-of-wind-turbines-were-added-last-year-in-the-us/

Quote
Nine gigawatts of wind turbines were added last year in the US
The 2019 numbers show projects are up, costs are down.

Scott K. Johnson - 8/28/2020

Quote
The topline number is that a little over nine gigawatts of wind capacity was added last year—slightly more than in each of the four previous years. Wind accounts for about one-third of all new generation added in 2019, and it ticked up to seven percent of all electricity generated in the US.

Quote
Over 1,800 older turbines were retrofitted last year, mostly with longer blades. That slightly increases their maximum capacity, but more importantly it leads to more consistent generation. These changes have boosted “capacity factors”—the average fraction of a turbine’s maximum capacity that it is generating as the winds vary over the days and seasons. The report notes that the average capacity factor of turbines built 2014-2018 was 41 percent, beating out turbines built 2004-2012 that come in at 31 percent. Newer turbines are also aging more gracefully, maintaining their output better than wind farms built before 2008.

Costs, meanwhile, continue to tick down from a 2010 peak, reaching about $850 per kilowatt for turbines and $1,400 per kilowatt on the project scale. That brings the average cost of electricity produced from wind to $36 per megawatt-hour. Wind has maintained its cost lead over natural gas electricity, although solar electricity has caught up in the last few years.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4945 on: September 01, 2020, 01:19:57 AM »
Aproximately 1/3 of US solar is not included in total solar graphed by EIA % is calculated based on % of solar reported.
   
Generation at Utility Scale FacilitiesSmall Scale GenerationNet Generation From Utility and Small Scale Facilities
PeriodCoalPetroleum
 Liquids
Petroleum
 Coke
Natural
 Gas
Other
 Gas
NuclearHydroelectric
 Conventional
SolarRenewable
 Sources
 Excluding
 Hydroelectric and Solar
Hydroelectric
 Pumped
 Storage
OtherTotal Generation at Utility Scale FacilitiesEstimated Solar PhotovoltaicEstimated Total Solar PhotovoltaicEstimated Total Solar
Annual Totals
20101,847,29023,33713,724987,69711,313806,968260,2031,212165,961-5,50112,8554,125,060N/AN/AN/A
20111,733,43016,08614,0961,013,68911,566790,204319,3551,818192,163-6,42114,1544,100,141N/AN/AN/A
20121,514,04313,4039,7871,225,89411,898769,331276,2404,327214,006-4,95013,7874,047,765N/AN/AN/A
20131,581,11513,82013,3441,124,83612,853789,016268,5659,036244,472-4,68113,5884,065,964N/AN/AN/A
20141,581,71018,27611,9551,126,60912,022797,166259,36717,691261,522-6,17413,4614,093,60611,23326,48228,924
61%
20151,352,39817,37210,8771,333,48213,117797,178249,08024,893270,268-5,09114,0284,077,60114,13935,80539,032
64%
20161,239,14913,00811,1971,378,30712,807805,694267,81236,054305,579-6,68613,7544,076,67518,81251,48354,866
66%
20171,205,83512,4148,9761,296,44212,469804,950300,33353,287332,963-6,49513,0964,034,27123,99074,00877,277
69%
20181,149,48716,2458,9811,469,13313,463807,084292,52463,825350,467-5,90512,9734,178,27729,53989,77393,365
68%
2019966,14811,5766,9911,581,81513,634809,409273,70772,234374,494-5,26113,3024,118,05135,041104,057107,275
67%

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4946 on: September 01, 2020, 01:23:40 AM »
The reason for this under reporting is its either behind the meter(customer side) or too small to consider.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4947 on: September 01, 2020, 05:00:30 AM »
It would appear that California alone has 300 MW capacity, so not too hard to see the rest of the US with another 200 MW with more under construction.

See this recent press release:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ls-power-energizes-largest-battery-storage-project-in-the-world-the-250-mw-gateway-project-in-california-301114983.html

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SAN DIEGO, Aug. 19, 2020. LS Power today unveiled the largest battery energy storage project in the world – Gateway Energy Storage. The 250 megawatt (MW) Gateway project, located in the East Otay Mesa community in San Diego County, California, enhances grid reliability and reduces customer energy costs. In doing so, Gateway provides a valuable resource for energy consumers, utilities and other load servers across California.

Gateway Energy Storage, currently at 230 MW and on track to reach 250 MW by the end of the month, follows another LS Power battery project, Vista Energy Storage in Vista, California, which has been operating since 2018 and was previously the largest battery storage project in the United States at 40 MW. LS Power has additional projects in development or construction in both California and New York, including Diablo Energy Storage (200 MW) in Pittsburg, California; LeConte Energy Storage (125 MW) in Calexico, California; and Ravenswood Energy Storage (316 MW) in Queens, New York.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4948 on: September 01, 2020, 05:10:09 PM »
Reposted from Aug 28th
EIA shows US battery storage in June at 1053 MW in operation.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #4949 on: September 01, 2020, 06:24:30 PM »
Reposted from Aug 28th
EIA shows US battery storage in June at 1053 MW in operation.

And with more under construction, it shouldn't be too difficult to get to the 1.2 GW by the end of the year as forecast in the article I posted above.  Given the flow of investments and project announcements, 100 GW of battery storage in the US by 2030 seems doable.

Again, a new non-fossil fuel energy technology growing far faster than the fossil fuel industry "experts" project.