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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5200 on: December 15, 2020, 06:23:29 PM »
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/12/14/uk-installs-5-mw-ultracapacitor-as-sonar-to-detect-power-grid-inertia/


UK installs 5 MW ultracapacitor as ‘sonar’ to detect power grid inertia

Electricity system operator National Grid is planning for a fully decarbonized power network in five years. Following a power outage last year, the operator has taken a pioneering role in finding solutions to the issues of running a grid using only power-electronics-interfaced resources. One key aspect of grid stability, inertia, can be detected using an ultracapacitor.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2020, 01:06:13 AM by interstitial »

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5201 on: December 15, 2020, 07:21:33 PM »
California plans for summer 2021 with 2,000 MW of new storage

CAISO’s new CEO says that rolling blackouts last August were a pivotal moment for the state. For 2021, he is focused on ensuring the grid has ample resources — including DERs — and well-functioning markets.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/12/12/california-plans-for-summer-2021-with-2000-mw-of-new-storage/
« Last Edit: December 17, 2020, 01:04:41 AM by interstitial »

kassy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5202 on: December 15, 2020, 10:08:53 PM »
I don´t know why the formatting turns up so messy but i suggest just using the standard text format.
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5203 on: December 15, 2020, 10:28:20 PM »
The US is on pace to install 19 GW of new solar capacity this year with another 69 GW already contracted for in Purchase Power Agreements.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/us-set-for-record-19gw-of-new-solar-capacity-installations-in-2020

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US set for record 19GW of new solar capacity installations in 2020
By Jules Scully Dec 15, 2020

New solar capacity installations in the US are expected to rise 43% this year as the industry recovers from the worst impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

That increase would see a record 19GW of new solar installed in 2020, as confidence in the utility PV segment has “surged back” following months of market uncertainty, the US Solar Market Insight Q4 2020 report said.

Quote
While utilities have continued ramping up solar procurement in anticipation of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) project completion deadline on 31 December 2023, they are also turning to solar to help meet new carbon reduction or renewables targets as they come under increasing pressure from large corporate offtakers. The report says a total of 9.5GWdc of new utility PV power purchase agreements were announced in Q3 2020, bringing the contracted pipeline to a record total of 69GWdc.

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While not every residential installer has recovered to the same extent, the study notes that “many of the larger installers are reporting record sales volumes and project pipelines”. Indeed, panellists in a recent Roth Capital webinar forecasted a strong Q4 and Q1 2021 as installers work to reduce their project backlogs.

In terms of non-residential PV – such as commercial, government, nonprofit and community solar – the report says the segment returned to first quarter installation figures in Q3, with 429MW deployed. The combination of project delays and demand pull-in from the ITC means that 2021 is expected to be a record-breaking year for non-residential solar at nearly 2.4GWdc.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5204 on: December 17, 2020, 12:55:05 AM »
I don´t know why the formatting turns up so messy but i suggest just using the standard text format.
I tried to copy and paste from an article. I hate this text editor I often have problems with it.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5205 on: December 17, 2020, 01:03:01 AM »
US solar capacity was approximately 69.6 GW at the end of September according to EIA. That includes behind the meter resources. Another 69 GW of capacity would be awesome. See it is picking up now that the economics have changed.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2020, 01:08:09 AM by interstitial »

Andreas T

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5206 on: December 18, 2020, 04:07:59 PM »
If I am reading the data on Gridwatch https://gridwatch.co.uk/Wind right, the UK has just generated a record 13.8 GW of windpower for an hour. The weather does not look spectacularly windy where I am in the south east but I guess widespread strong wind is better than high windspead peaks which get turbines to feather their blades. Lets see what the rest of the winter brings, I am not aware of recent large increases in capacity, or does somebody else have better information?

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5207 on: December 18, 2020, 06:38:15 PM »
Is that a record?

My national Grid app says the record is 17129MW on 20th Jan earlier this year.

Very healthy offshore wind on all coasts by the look of it

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5208 on: December 18, 2020, 08:07:30 PM »
I think the difference is in the metering. Gridwatch had 13.75 (from memory)  as maximum output year to date before today. The data comes from
https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=generation/windforcast/out-turn
which says it is
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Based on historical outturn data and detailed local wind forecasts, National Grid forecasts likely levels of wind generation for windfarms visible to National Grid, i.e. those that have operational metering and that are included in the latest forecast process.
your figure includes unmetered generation (mostly smaller farms/ units I believe) as far as I know, so is closer to the actual generation, I would expect this to follow the same trend, but data is probably not as quickly available.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5209 on: December 18, 2020, 10:35:48 PM »
If I am reading the data on Gridwatch https://gridwatch.co.uk/Wind right, the UK has just generated a record 13.8 GW of windpower for an hour. The weather does not look spectacularly windy where I am in the south east but I guess widespread strong wind is better than high windspead peaks which get turbines to feather their blades. Lets see what the rest of the winter brings, I am not aware of recent large increases in capacity, or does somebody else have better information?

According to this news article from October, UK wind capacity is growing quickly, with 1.3 GW expected to come online this winter.  Maybe some if it is already online?

https://renews.biz/63900/uk-installed-wind-capacity-to-grow-by-13gw-this-winter/

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UK wind capacity to grow by 1.3GW this winter

CfDs will drive 5% rise in new additions, says Cornwall Insight
20 October 2020

A total of 1300MW of new wind capacity could come online this winter in the UK, according to Cornwall Insight's renewables pipeline tracker report.

Cornwall Insight's tracker report shows this 5% rise could result in 25.4GW of installed capacity by March 2021.

Andreas T

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5210 on: December 19, 2020, 10:58:14 AM »
Thanks, Ken, that's useful. Here is confirmation on Bloomberg (reading the same data I quoted so not the full picture) but it has an interesting outlook for the next days.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-18/wind-turbines-fed-record-electricity-flow-to-u-k-grid-on-friday

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5211 on: December 19, 2020, 12:40:10 PM »
It's really good seeing these off shore wind farms make a mark, I really do think the dogger bank ones will be a game changer.

Mygrid now have a chart showing average usage by source over the course of a day.
http://www.mygridgb.co.uk/last-28-days/

We are still 5-6GW of renewables generation shy of being able to charge storage overnight on a regular basis.  That's when I expect to see UK storage and exports rise.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5212 on: December 20, 2020, 10:00:11 PM »
Biden commits to carbon pollution free electricity grid by 2035

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1340721628154482691?s=20

I'm a bit concerned by the wording, does this suggest carbon capture as a large part of the solution?

Edit : Harris now confirming carbon free by 2050.

The adults are back in the room.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2020, 10:25:16 PM by BeeKnees »

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5213 on: December 20, 2020, 10:30:19 PM »
Bit hard to find exact wording in a twitter feed but if he is serious about that clean water there is a job to do.

So i did not find a specific proposal. Possibly copying the most relevant tweet would be helpful.
In general it will be more interesting to wait for the actual proposals since is just some intern typing on a twitter feed anyway.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5214 on: December 20, 2020, 10:36:20 PM »
My timeline was a bit off as I hadn't seen the earlier Harris tweet

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1340415777091047424?s=20

Agree detail is needed, but very promising

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5215 on: December 21, 2020, 11:07:15 AM »
Hopefully words will be followed by actions, but difference to Trump administration is already huge. No more climate change denialists and FF lobbyists in high positions.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5216 on: December 21, 2020, 11:18:38 AM »
Well detail should come after inauguration, however the first thing we should see is a ban on new FF vehicles from 2030 or 2035.

If they don't do that, then their plans are not going to come to fruition by 2050 as it will take at least 20 years to cycle through the vast majority of the vehicle fleet.

There is a fairly well worn path to net neutral carbon now.  Support and grow zero carbon electricity, create bans on new FF vehicles, support and encourage distribution of the EV power outlets and use biomass absorption to lock in the emissions which still remain in the system.

We shall see how that stacks up in the first 100 days post Jan 20th.
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5217 on: December 21, 2020, 03:47:00 PM »
I'm reminded of some research my brother did in in law school 45 years ago.  His conclusion was that photovoltaics would not 'take off' until the US government, especially the military, decided it was a good thing.  (When did that happen? For the military: circa 2007. For the world: maybe 1999 when Total worldwide installed photovoltaic power reaches 1,000 megawatts.)

So, with that background, when the US government stops buying FF automobiles (for itself) and disallows federal dollars to be spent by states to buy FF automobiles, then I'll say my government is serious about the next step toward dealing with climate change.  This could happen in 3 or 4 years.  (Fingers crossed!) 

The transition has started:
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The Fremont Police Department was the first in the nation to use a Tesla as a patrol vehicle, Ms. Bosques said. The agency bought a used 2014 Tesla Model S 85 in late 2017 as part of its commitment to a City of Fremont climate change initiative, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020.
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5218 on: December 21, 2020, 07:24:21 PM »
Companies are recognizing the potential of geothermal energy as a renewable baseload power source.  When external costs and availability are included in the cost/benefit analysis, geothermal energy comes out as the most effective source for generating energy.

https://qz.com/1947017/geothermal-is-the-electricity-combating-climate-change/

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Geothermal energy, the forgotten renewable, has finally arrived
By Michael J. Coren

Climate reporter
December 20, 2020

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Utilities weren’t prioritizing low-carbon baseload until now. “Geothermal fills a critical gap to complete the energy transition,” says Jesse Jenkins, an energy systems engineer at Princeton University, who estimates it could one day exceed the capacity of nuclear and hydropower. “Technical potential is not really the question. It is the economic question.”

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Historically, geothermal looked like the expensive option. Geothermal power can cost about $140 per megawatt-hour, double the price of onshore wind, and nearly five times more than solar, according to the California Energy Commission. In 2017, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, which holds rights to much of the Salton Sea’s geothermal field, finally abandoned a permit for a 215 MW plant after years of struggling to find buyers for its electricity.

But that calculus ignored something critical: Wind and solar can’t provide baseload energy. A better way to calculate the cost to utilities is to measure the price of adding a particular megawatt to the grid. Electrons that can be turned on or off are worth more than those that can’t. Using this approach, the US Energy Information Administration says, new geothermal capacity in 2025 should cost just $37 per megawatt/hour, cheaper than almost every source besides solar photovoltaic ($36 per MWh).

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Creating new geothermal fields, it turns out, requires just the right mix of rock and heat. Luckily, those conditions exist almost anywhere—if you’re willing to drill. For every kilometer down into the Earth’s crust, temperatures rise about 25°C. “If you can figure out a way to tap that, you can get a phenomenal amount of energy,” says Will Fleckenstein, an engineering professor studying unconventional drilling at the Colorado School of Mines. “It’s essentially everywhere.”

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Private investment has started ramping up in anticipation. In the first half of 2020, global geothermal investments exceeded $675 million, six times more than the year prior, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (renewables investments overall rose only 5% during that time). Within five years, global geothermal production capacity is predicted to rise from 16 gigawatts to 24 GW, according to Rystad Energy.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5219 on: December 21, 2020, 08:47:01 PM »
Princeton has strong links to Exxon and climate change deniers like Happer.  It makes me very wary of their findings and motives for this.

Jacobson appears to be similarly cautious, although admittedly he is a wind/solar advocate so could be similarly biased.

https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1339653119064514563?s=19

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5220 on: December 22, 2020, 04:12:21 AM »
Carbon capture in the us is pretty much dead except the hype.
Of 22 projects in the US only 3 were attached to post combustion processes. Capturing 90% of CO2. I think I read somewhere that only one of the three is still in operation. The one in operation was only built for one of the burners of a coal plant. All 22 projects were planned, under construction or completed in 2014. All of those were completed by 2017 and no new plant sized projects have been announced since then. Eighteen of the projects were used primarily to increase depleted field oil extraction. Other than hype about what carbon capture could do I can't find information on the projects more recently than 2017. The more recent stuff just says how wonderful carbon capture could be. A number of the projects have closed already. The nineteen non post combustion projects make synthetic fuels from coal or natural gas. Sound familiar? It should so called "blue hydrogen" is carbon sequestration of natural gas rebranded to sound better. Blue hydrogen is unlikely to become cheaper than grey hydrogen ever because it is an extra step and the marketable uses for CO2 are small and the largest volume use by far is for the extraction of oil.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5221 on: December 22, 2020, 10:35:57 AM »
The UK Conservative party are reversing their anti-renewables policy with a range of new initiatives including CCS.

We are well placed with gas fired generation,  well experienced workforce, depleted gas fields and infrastructure in place:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-16/government-to-help-fund-four-carbon-capture-and-storage-hubs-in-the-uk
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5222 on: December 22, 2020, 08:46:45 PM »
The stimulus bill passed by the US Congress yesterday includes many provisions to spur the investment in renewables and other green energy technologies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/12/21/congress-climate-spending/

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Stimulus deal includes raft of provisions to fight climate change
The most substantial federal investment in green technology in a decade includes billions for solar, wind, battery storage and carbon capture. Congress also agreed to cut the use of HFCs, chemicals used in refrigeration that are driving global warming.
By Sarah Kaplan and Dino Grandoni
Dec. 21, 2020

In one of the biggest victories for U.S. climate action in a decade, Congress has moved to phase out a class of potent planet-warming chemicals and provide billions of dollars for renewable energy and efforts to suck carbon from the atmosphere as part of the $900 billion coronavirus relief package.

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It will cut the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), chemicals used in air conditioners and refrigerators that are hundreds of times worse for the climate than carbon dioxide. It authorizes a sweeping set of new renewable energy measures, including tax credit extensions and new research and development programs for solar, wind and energy storage; funding for energy efficiency projects; upgrades to the electric grid and a new commitment to research on removing carbon from the atmosphere. And it reauthorizes an Environmental Protection Agency program to curb emissions from diesel engines.

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The HFC measure, which empowers the EPA to cut the production and use of HFCs by 85 percent over the next 15 years, is expected to save as much as half a degree Celsius of warming by the end of the century. Scientists say the world needs to constrain the increase in the average global temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial times to avoid catastrophic, irreversible damage to the planet. Some places around the globe are already experiencing an average temperature rise beyond that threshold.

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Included in the energy package are roughly $4 billion for solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal research and development; $1.7 billion to help low-income families install renewable energy sources in their homes; $2.6 billion for the Energy Department’s sustainable transportation program; and $500 million for research on reducing industrial emissions.

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In a boon for renewable energy companies, Congress extended tax credits for wind and solar and introduced a new credit for offshore wind projects, which Heather Zichal, chief executive of the American Clean Power Association, called “America’s largest untapped clean energy source.” One Department of Energy analysis suggested that developing just 4 percent of the total U.S. offshore wind capacity could power some 25 million homes and reduce the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions by almost 2 percent.

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5223 on: December 23, 2020, 09:46:10 PM »

It appears Jacobson and the author of the Princeton report are having a discussion on twitter about it that maybe worth following.

https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1341845339079249920?s=19

Jessie Jenkins
'Infeasibility is a strong word, and I've never claimed that. For affordability, optionality, reduced land intensity, and reduced build rates required of single sectors, having clean firm resources in addition to wind, water, solar, and storage makes reaching net-zero much easier.And outside electricity, having bioenergy sector at scale appears to be key for affordability of net-zero scenarios. We can use existing bioenergy land currently growing corn for ethanol for better use, supplemented by ag & forestry waste.'

Jacobson
'Your conclusions based on a limited renewable system, not

https://t.co/DDNNGMeZzl

and an assumption you know cost of & install time of techs (SMR, CCS) that don't exist commercially, & WWS costs are higher than reality. Dozens other studies disagree

https://t.co/dC5z3LpeJs'

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5224 on: December 23, 2020, 10:02:32 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

US Energy consumption to Sept 20

Renewable energy production from solar + wind continues to climb. Due to ineficiencies inherent in energy from fossil fuels one unit of renewable energy displaces at least two units of energy from fossil fuels.

So once renewable energy increases are above any increase in energy demand (and losses from e.g. closure of nuclear power stations and reduced hydro), the downturn in energy from fossil fuels should be at least double that of the growth in renewable energy.

The US of A is not there yet, though coal may be mortally wounded at last. Reduced use of autos and of aviation is also pulling down use of fossil fuels.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2020, 10:16:41 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5225 on: December 24, 2020, 06:07:58 AM »
Gerontocrat beat me to it but my graphs are slightly different. Monthly US eia energy data are out.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5226 on: December 24, 2020, 08:53:08 AM »
Recently I adjusted a Total energy graph of BTU to compensate for much of the wasted energy converting to usable energy. To do this I assumed all coal and natural gas (NG) were burned to generate electricity. I adjusted the reality graph I made based on the following.
92% of coal is used to generate electricity
8% of coal is used for heat
38% of NG is used for electricity
40% of NG is used for heat
22% is used for feed stock of bulk chemicals and not energy production at all.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5227 on: December 28, 2020, 10:22:37 PM »
Steven Mark Ryan video

Chamath Palihapitiya: Residential solar & storage, with software to make the value of that energy understandable (like Tesla’s Autobidder), along with load smoothing, will mean the death of trillions in peaker assets.

Billionaire Investor: Tesla & The Future Of Energy


Quote
SOURCES
◆ Chamath Palihapitiya reflects on his success, roro, economy, tech and politics #https://youtu.be/fdNIJ5JlJRY
◆ Capital Allocators Podcast - Chamath Palihapitiya Ep.167 #https://youtu.be/SwpNbT6G5Gs
◆ Chamath Palihapitiya — The Knowledge Project #94 #https://youtu.be/v9pipH75L_E

SMR: In this video I react to and share my thoughts and opinions on comments by billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya on Tesla, business opportunities, disruption, innovation and the future of energy (Tesla's autobidder software, virtual power plants, distributed utilities).

I also melt some snowflakes.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5228 on: December 29, 2020, 12:16:25 PM »
UK broke the record on boxing day for largest share of energy supplied by renewables in a day.  50.67%

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/28/storm-bella-helps-uk-record-wind-power-generation-boxing-day

Over the next 4 years offshore wind will double to 20GW with most of the new turbines having a capacity factor of at least 50% and probably over 60% as the new Halide-X 14MW will be used

https://www.offgridenergyindependence.com/articles/22698/first-14-mw-turbine-delivered-to-worlds-largest-off-shore-wind-farm

By 2026 we should expect wind alone to be supplying over 100TWh a year and comfortably be the largest source of energy for electricity generation.

 


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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5229 on: December 29, 2020, 03:42:14 PM »
UK broke the record on boxing day for largest share of energy supplied by renewables in a day.  50.67%


A little correction - that is wind only.

Also it seems Boxing day share of demand is down to low demand.

Quote
While Boxing Day set a record for the highest share of power generated by windfarms, it was not a record for the most power they have ever supplied. That was set earlier this month, when windfarms delivered 17.3 gigawatts. Because overall demand was higher at the time, their percentage share of total power generation was lower than it was on Boxing Day, at 40%.

Still most power ever supplied this month.

Iain

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5230 on: January 04, 2021, 11:26:33 AM »
20% Hydrogen, produced in an electrolyser, blended with natural gas being trialed at Keele University:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50873047

More expensive than natural gas, not sure how well scaling up - big electrolysers and compressors - will work on those costs,
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5231 on: January 04, 2021, 11:43:15 AM »
Lawrence Livermore has energy flowcharts which include both energy generated an wasted



https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/water
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BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5232 on: January 04, 2021, 03:53:28 PM »
2.4GW offshore wind farm Hornsea 3 has just got the green light.

https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4025323/orsted-secures-green-light-mammoth-4gw-hornsea-offshore-wind-farm

Not without controversy, there are concerns it could impact kittiwake numbers.  hopefully this concern is unfounded but it looks like we wont know until after it's built. 

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5233 on: January 05, 2021, 08:40:10 PM »
The UK geothermal industry is getting underway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/uk-geothermal-sector-gets-boost-with-deal-to-power-thousands-of-homes.html

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UK’s geothermal sector gets a boost with deal to power thousands of homes
Published Tue, Jan 5 2021

Energy firm Ecotricity has signed a ten-year deal for electricity which will be produced by a British geothermal power plant, representing another step forward for the country’s fledgling industry.

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According to an announcement from GEL, electricity from the facility will be sent to Ecotricity customers via the National Grid. Power production is expected to commence in the spring of 2022. 

Both companies claim it will be the first time geothermal electricity has been generated and sold in the U.K. It’s hoped thousands of homes will be powered through the deal.

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While the U.K.’s geothermal sector is nascent it is more developed elsewhere. Iceland’s National Energy Authority says geothermal power facilities produce 25% of the country’s total electricity production.

According to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, geothermal power plants across seven states – California, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Hawaii, Idaho and New Mexico – generated around 16 billion kilowatt-hours in 2019. This, it adds, was “equal to 0.4% of total U.S. utility-scale electricity generation.”

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5234 on: January 06, 2021, 01:41:28 PM »
I almost do not want to post this because November and December numbers are based on planned additions and retirements. The real numbers will come out at the end of January and the end of February. They don't always pan out so keep that in mind. But I am just too excited not to share them. At the end of October US eia says total solar is only 70 gw and total wind was 109 gw. Notice the green line the uptick at the end represents 20.7 gw of new renewables (15 gw or 13.7% increase of wind and 5.7 gw or 8.1% increase solar) in the final two months of 2020. An additional 27 gw (12.2 gw or 9.8% increase of wind and 15.4 gw or 20.3% increase of solar) is already planned for 2021. Some of that will not be built but their is the potential for more solar and batteries to be built than that. These early numbers are based on applications for grid connections. Further the solar here only includes utility grid connections any behind the meter solar will be in additions to this.




Total wind and solar was 179.8 gw at the end of October. With 20.7 gw or 11.5% increase by the end of 2020 and 27.6 gw or 13.8% increase planned  by the end of 2021.

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5235 on: January 11, 2021, 07:49:02 PM »
Solar, wind and batteries are projected to be more than 80% of the new addition to the US electricity grid in 2021.  Natural gas will be 16% and nuclear, if the new reactors in Georgia are operable this year, will be 3%.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416

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January 11, 2021
Renewables account for most new U.S. electricity generating capacity in 2021

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According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electricity generators, developers and power plant owners plan for 39.7 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity to start commercial operation in 2021. Solar will account for the largest share of new capacity at 39%, followed by wind at 31%. About 3% of the new capacity will come from the new nuclear reactor at the Vogtle power plant in Georgia.

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Battery storage. EIA expects the capacity of utility-scale battery storage to more than quadruple; 4.3 GW of battery power capacity additions are slated to come online by the end of 2021. The rapid growth of renewables, such as wind and solar, is a major driver in the expansion of battery capacity because battery storage systems are increasingly paired with renewables. The world's largest solar-powered battery (409 MW) is under construction at Manatee Solar Energy Center in Florida; the battery is scheduled to be operational by late 2021.


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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5236 on: January 12, 2021, 03:29:02 AM »
Solar, wind and batteries are projected to be more than 80% of the new addition to the US electricity grid in 2021.  Natural gas will be 16% and nuclear, if the new reactors in Georgia are operable this year, will be 3%.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416

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January 11, 2021
Renewables account for most new U.S. electricity generating capacity in 2021

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According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of electricity generators, developers and power plant owners plan for 39.7 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity generating capacity to start commercial operation in 2021. Solar will account for the largest share of new capacity at 39%, followed by wind at 31%. About 3% of the new capacity will come from the new nuclear reactor at the Vogtle power plant in Georgia.

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Battery storage. EIA expects the capacity of utility-scale battery storage to more than quadruple; 4.3 GW of battery power capacity additions are slated to come online by the end of 2021. The rapid growth of renewables, such as wind and solar, is a major driver in the expansion of battery capacity because battery storage systems are increasingly paired with renewables. The world's largest solar-powered battery (409 MW) is under construction at Manatee Solar Energy Center in Florida; the battery is scheduled to be operational by late 2021.


I called it in my previous post I listed 27 GW of new renewable energy in 2021
39.7 GW * (39%+31%) =27.8 GW

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5237 on: January 12, 2021, 03:45:42 PM »
Not looking so good in Africa -

Why? International Finance aimed at fossil fuel powered electricity generation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55620848
Climate change: Africa's green energy transition 'unlikely' this decade
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Fossil fuels are set to remain the dominant source of electricity across Africa over the next decade, according to a new study.

Researchers found that around 2,500 power plants are planned, enough to double electricity production by 2030. But the authors say that less than 10% of the new power generated will come from wind or solar.

The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades.
They argue that a rapid, decarbonisation shock is needed to cancel many of the plants currently planned.

Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would "leapfrog" directly to renewable energy sources, and away from old world coal, oil and gas. This has already happened with communications, where countries have invested in cellular technology and over 90% of people across the continent have access to a mobile service.

But the new research indicates that this same sort of leap isn't likely to happen with green electricity over the next decade. By 2030, the study suggests that coal, oil and gas will continue to dominate the generation of electricity across 54 African countries, with just 9.6% coming from renewable sources, excluding hydro power.

"We based our analysis on understanding the chances of the power plants that are currently being planned, being commissioned by the end of this decade," lead author Galina Alova from the University of Oxford told BBC News.

"In the next few years, we see that renewable energy power plants have, for example, lower success chances than gas and oil. We find that the success chances have been improving especially for solar, but for others like wind particularly, they're still quite modest."

"Internationally, we're still using development finance for fossil fuelled plants," said Philipp Trotter. "The US is heavily investing in natural gas plants in Africa. If you redirect a majority of these funds to renewables, that is when you can really kick start them. That's especially important for a technology like wind, which hasn't really taken off yet in Africa.

"There's still time to turn it around. But the deeper you go into the planning and construction stages of projects, the harder it would be to turn it around at large scale. So it's really important to act really fast."

The study has been published in the journal Nature Energy. ***
*** https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00755-9.epdf?sharing_token=S8wpW95hUJdHjg5NhES8L9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N8hGqjXCwrAcskVf4EKbH1ubHj3Ki8TztNHHdP7A73N1QN3WKLSnNW_nK9MRUekSUrboE_D43IaQdaScsEQ1ocQNvhpOq3cyecEH8qTKy_Re2Yu6msQmTytETOepKg5XutxPUHO9vzF6aIGAyT28DYI-3nrrPxFGqP47ySnxcFvvxb1iGsUGh2T2v_i_XEURg%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.co.uk
A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 08:49:58 PM by gerontocrat »
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Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5238 on: January 12, 2021, 06:22:33 PM »
Wind power provided more electricity than coal in Texas in 2020.  And wind, solar and batteries make up 95% of planned capacity additions to the Texas grid.  (For those who aren't aware, Texas is basically the center of the US oil and gas industry, with many corporations headquartered in the State and a large share of refineries and export facilities).

https://www.ft.com/content/225dacb0-fa6e-4f38-a8d2-64517731a228

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Wind power overtakes coal in Texas electricity generation
Renewables capacity is surging in US state that is the heartland of fossil fuels
Justin Jacobs 1/11/21

Wind power surged past coal in Texas’ electricity mix for the first time in 2020, the latest sign of renewable energy’s rising prominence in America’s fossil fuel heartland.

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Wind turbines generated nearly a quarter of Texas’ power in 2020, beating out coal’s roughly 18 per cent share of the market, making it the second-largest source of generation in the state behind natural gas, according to data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (Ercot), the state’s main grid operator.

And the low carbon boom in Texas, by far the largest power producing state in the country with the second-largest population and a large base of oil refineries and petrochemical plants, looks set to gather pace from here.

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Wind, solar and batteries combined make up about 95 per cent of new generation capacity that project developers have proposed connecting to the grid in the coming years, according to Ercot.

President-elect Joe Biden has promised to deploy tens of thousands of new wind turbines and millions of new solar panels as part of a plan to put the US on a path towards net zero emissions in the electricity sector by 2035, a central pillar of his $2tn climate platform.


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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5239 on: January 12, 2021, 06:40:28 PM »
It is also important to know texas electric grid is largely independant of the rest of the US. Further Texas runs the least restrictive electricity market in the US.Changes to the generation mix there are market driven.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5240 on: January 14, 2021, 12:08:19 PM »
This is an interesting and balanced article about UKs National grid

https://eciu.net/blog/2021/there-is-more-than-low-wind-behind-our-electricity-system-woes

It addresses failure of government to promote storage, demand side response and grid upgrades for the move to renewables

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Looking at our grid today, it is hard to conclude that there has been much in the way of progress. Battery deployment is languishing around a tenth of where it needs to be and is sufficiently rare that projects still make headlines, DSR is operating at just a fraction of its total potential, network investment (and direction of investment) remains well behind that needed to meet net zero, and incentives for homes to install and make the most of smart meters remain almost entirely absent; among many other markers.

And also the failures of existing Gas. Coal and Nuclear
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During last week’s tightness when three separate grid warnings were issued, close to 2 GW of coal capacity did not fulfil contractual obligations. This week, an outage at Drax further boosts the coal crunch. Add in outages across EDF’s capacity market-contracted nuclear fleet (getting on for 3 GW’s worth) as well as unavailable or mothballed gas plants, and it is clear that there is more than just ‘low wind levels’ at play.

The conclusion is
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So, yes, sometimes it isn’t very windy; but there remain much bigger questions to ask.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5241 on: January 15, 2021, 03:55:50 PM »
Plans for 2021
US grid will see 80 percent of its new capacity go emission-free
1/15/2021
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Earlier this week, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) released figures on the new generating capacity that's expected to start operating over the course of 2021. While plans can obviously change, the hope is that, with its new additions, the grid will look radically different than it did just five years ago. The report includes the details of where a new nuclear plant may be started up, although it will be dwarfed by the capacity of new batteries. But the big picture is that, even ignoring the batteries, about 80 percent of the planned capacity additions will be emission-free.
...

Less than 20 percent of the capacity added in 2021 will be natural gas (6.6GW), even if you disregard the battery capacity being added. That's down from 34 percent just two years ago, and over 60 percent three years ago. New additions are heavily concentrated in areas where a lot of natural gas is produced: southern Texas and near the Ohio/Pennsylvania/West Virginia borders.

Instead, wind and solar dominated, with 12.2GW of new wind capacity and 15.4GW of solar power. This is especially striking given that tax credits for renewable energy were set to phase out in 2020, leading many projects to be pushed through to completion late in the year. (Those credits ended up being extended in a recent budget bill.) Normally, the EIA predicts that these sorts of expirations cause the pipeline of new projects to empty out, leading to a temporary drop. There is absolutely no indication that this took place in 2021.

Notably, these values don't include residential solar, which is expected to add another 3GW to 4GW of capacity in 2021. ...
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/wind-solar-to-dominate-new-us-generating-capacity-in-2021/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5242 on: January 15, 2021, 09:05:29 PM »
Menawhile - data from IEA to October 2020

Stacked % graphs - 12 month trailing average.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5243 on: January 19, 2021, 02:57:26 PM »
One last graph fromIEA electricity production data. All OECD + China + India electricity production. Note it's 12 month trailing average.

I can only go back nearly 4 years with this data. What it does show is that increased electricity production in this period  is mostly from solar + wind. It also shows a small diminuition in electricity from coal balanced by an increase in electricity from natural gas. Coal + natural gas + a bit of oil still provides a bit over 60% of electricity produced.

In other words we still wait for renewables to visibly bite significant chunks out of fossil fuels.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 05:22:00 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5244 on: January 19, 2021, 05:04:16 PM »
Very important chart.
The good news - absolute fossil fuel use in electricity production has not grown globally in the last 4 years, despite growth in total electricity production.
The bad news - absolute fossil fuel use has not shrunk at all, while the AGW clock is ticking and the GHG budget is long past. If Ken Feldman is to be right and the transition is well underway, this should result not just in avoided growth, but in actual shrinkage, and soon.

p.s. The last point of the chart takes all lines to zero, making it seem a bit weird at the end.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5245 on: January 19, 2021, 05:42:19 PM »
p.s. The last point of the chart takes all lines to zero, making it seem a bit weird at the end.
Just for you Oren - made the chart into a column graph with no spaces.
The package I use (not excel but a freebie look-a-like) has little glitches on some graphs. Most annoying.

US Data

A cynic (i.e. me) might say that when you outsource industrial production to Asia electricity production may drop.

The switch from coal to gas is very obvious - the use of fossil fuels is down. USA electricity production is just over 20% of OECD+CHINA+INDIA so is just a fraction of what needs to be done.
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5246 on: January 19, 2021, 06:42:31 PM »
It did not change much in the last 4 years, the solar and wind.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5247 on: January 19, 2021, 06:58:17 PM »
It did not change much in the last 4 years, the solar and wind.
In the early years after 1986 (which was when China's Deng Xiao Ping announced the policy of "Building Socialism with Capitalist tools"),  western pundits used to say China might be growing quickly but from such a small base they will never catch up with the West.

They were wrong - the only question is when will renewables reach that critical mass after which dominance is inevitable, and will it be soon enough to prevent the heat in the Earth's climate system also reaching that scary critical mass.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 07:19:06 PM by gerontocrat »
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Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5248 on: January 19, 2021, 07:03:40 PM »
And in the next four years, with almost all new sources of electrical generation added to the grid being renewable, expect that graph to look much different.

The problem with presenting the information in that way is that it looks much like what climate change deniers do when they show global warming in degrees kelvin and start the graph axis at 0 degrees kelvin. (I'm not going to link to denial pictures, but it looks very similar to the depiction of wind and solar on Gero's graph).  It masks the recent changes in global warming by making the changes look gradual and very minor.

What would a graph that just shows renewable sources over the last four years look like?

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5249 on: January 19, 2021, 07:12:05 PM »
Some alternative graphs: