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gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5250 on: January 19, 2021, 08:54:10 PM »
And in the next four years, with almost all new sources of electrical generation added to the grid being renewable, expect that graph to look much different.

The problem with presenting the information in that way is that it looks much like what climate change deniers do when they show global warming in degrees kelvin and start the graph axis at 0 degrees kelvin. (I'm not going to link to denial pictures, but it looks very similar to the depiction of wind and solar on Gero's graph).  It masks the recent changes in global warming by making the changes look gradual and very minor.

What would a graph that just shows renewable sources over the last four years look like?
Like this....
75% increase over the 4 years
But
depressingly straight line growth.

We need the curve
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5251 on: January 20, 2021, 06:24:08 AM »
Like this....
75% increase over the 4 years
But
depressingly straight line growth.

We need the curve
Growth in wind and solar.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5252 on: January 20, 2021, 06:31:52 AM »
For perspective about 110 GW per year would get the US there in 10 years.

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5253 on: January 20, 2021, 09:46:07 AM »
Growth in wind and solar.

The affect of Wind/Solar becoming cheaper than FF in around 2018 is very clear in that chart.

Hopefully much more to come.

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5254 on: January 20, 2021, 09:02:07 PM »
China installed about 72GW or wind power in 2020.  They also added 48GW of solar.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-20/china-blows-past-clean-energy-record-with-extra-wind-capacity

Quote
China Blows Past Clean Energy Record With Wind Capacity Jump
By Dan Murtaugh
January 19, 2021

China blew past its previous record for renewable energy installations last year with a massive -- and surprising -- addition of wind power.

The National Energy Administration said in a press release on Wednesday that China added almost 72 gigawatts of wind power in 2020, more than double the previous record. The country also added about 48 gigawatts of solar, the most since 2017, and about 13 gigawatts of hydropower.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5255 on: January 21, 2021, 12:44:10 AM »
A major wind tax credit was set to expire at the end of 2020. In December it was extended. Unfortunately it probably wont help 2021 wind installations.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5256 on: January 21, 2021, 01:09:51 AM »
I think the end of 2018 / beginning of 2019 was what I meant in terms of when prices changed even if I said differently. That implied a more precise date then what it was. During 2019 is probably more accurate because shifting prices are a gradual change. The major report about new renewables being cheaper than FF I believe from the Sierra club came out in first half of 2020.


Tariffs on Chinese PV panels will probably be eliminated soon. Small solar projects can be completed on short lead times but larger projects can take several years.   

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5257 on: January 21, 2021, 11:59:37 PM »
Initial reports indicate that global investment in renewable energy increased by 2% in 2020, despite the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.  With the prices of renewables still falling, this lead to large amounts of wind and solar capacity installed.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/01/20210120-bnef.html

Quote
Renewable energy investment. Global investment in renewable energy capacity moved up 2% to $303.5 billion in 2020. This was the second-highest annual figure ever (after 2017’s $313.3 billion), and the seventh consecutive total of more than $250 billion. Falling capital costs enabled record volumes of both solar (132GW) and wind (73GW) to be installed on the basis of the modest increase in dollar investment.

Highlights of the renewables investment total included a leap of 56% in financings of offshore wind projects to $50 billion, including the largest deal ever in that sub-sector—$8.3 billion for the 2.5GW Dogger Bank project in the UK North Sea. The year also saw the largest single solar park ever funded, the 2GW Al Dhafrah in the United Arab Emirates, at a cost of $1.1 billion.

Overall, solar capacity investment was up 12% at $148.6 billion, and wind (onshore and offshore) down 6% at $142.7 billion. Biomass and waste-to-energy financings were down 3% at $10 billion.


zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5258 on: January 23, 2021, 11:05:21 PM »
I'm curious if there are any fans of Prof. Vaclav Smil kicking about? http://vaclavsmil.com/

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5259 on: January 25, 2021, 03:30:32 AM »
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/01/23/the-weekend-read-the-recent-evolution-of-solar-pv-energy-costs/
The weekend read: The recent evolution of solar PV energy costs
“Forecasts for the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar PV were hotly contested over the past decade, with one trend predominating: All but the most optimistic outlooks were wrong.”
“Within just a few years, initial projections become outdated, …”
“This failure to forecast the right LCOE for solar become even starker should one consider the lowest prices been reached in tender exercises around the world.”
“Indeed, competitive tenders during 2019 broke the world’s cheapest solar PV tariff record a few times. Prices struck in Portugal’s ($0.016/kWh), Dubai’s ($0.01653/kWh), and Brazil’s ($0.0175/kWh) solar auctions were the three lowest tariffs awarded that year.”
“Last year, the world’s record for the lowest solar PV tariff was also outcompeted several times, with Portugal still holding the world’s cheapest tariff of $0.01316/kWh. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi followed neck and neck, as the authorities awarded a tariff of $0.0135/kWh. Also, Qatar later followed closely with a tariff rate of $0.01567/kWh.” Last year =2020
“One should note of course that tenders have often grown into complex mechanisms that do not allow for quick and simple comparisons between them to be made. In the case of the Portuguese auction last year, for example, solar PV awards were often combined with solar storage facilities, while there were also rules concerning the grid connection of the projects, tied in the auction’s compensation mechanism.”

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5260 on: January 25, 2021, 05:03:27 PM »
Australia: new solar + batteries neighborhood should generate 120% of their needed electricity

First 100% solar and battery neighborhood in Australia
January 23, 2021
Quote
Economic Development Queensland (EDQ) recently announced a landmark deal with Tesla for the use of its Powerwall 2 batteries in a massive sustainability community project. The initiative aims to establish the first government-backed community in Australia that is 100% powered by solar energy and batteries.

The project would involve 80 homes in the Brisbane suburb of Oxley, with each home receiving a AU$5,000 rebate if they purchase a heavily discounted package for the Tesla batteries and solar panels from Natural Solar. All homes in the community would come with solar panels, batteries, heat pump hot water systems, WiFi air conditioning, and electric vehicle charging equipment.

Each home in the community would be fitted with seventeen 365w solar panels from Natural Solar and one 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwall 2 battery. Such a setup is expected to generate an average of 9000 kWh annually, which equates to an estimated savings of AU$2,100 per year for every household.

Considering that the homes in the Oxley project are expected to generate 120% of their electricity needs, as well as the fact that each house could store energy in their Tesla Powerwall batteries, homeowners would have the option to sell surplus power on the energy market. This also allows the homes in the Oxley project to become part of Australia’s Virtual Power Plants initiative.


In a statement to local news outlets, Michael Kane from Economic Development Queensland highlighted the potential of virtual power plants to Australia’s power grid. He also noted that interest has been fairly high about such projects among consumers. “They’re little power stations, and they’re generating more than enough power for each individual home. The market interest has been very strong,” he said.

Tesla is currently building a massive virtual power plant in South Australia. The system, which is expected to involve 50,000 homes, would deliver 250MW of solar energy and store 650MWh of backup energy for the region. This makes Tesla’s South Australia virtual power plant far larger than battery installations such as the Hornsdale Power Reserve, which is one of the world’s largest batteries.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-powerwall-community-australia-virtual-power-plant/
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Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5261 on: January 25, 2021, 07:25:59 PM »
Large oil and gas companies are starting to invest in geothermal energy, a 24/7 baseload source of renewable heat and electricity.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Majors-Poised-To-Make-Biggest-Geothermal-Investments-In-30-Years.html

Quote
Oil Majors Poised To Make Biggest Geothermal Investments In 30 Years
By Alex Kimani - Jan 24, 2021

The green energy revolution is well and truly underway. Renewables have proven to be highly resilient, emerging as the only energy sector to record any kind of growth at a time when the traditional energy sector is going through its worst existential crisis.

Indeed, the latest report by clean energy watchdog Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) reveals that a broad measure of global energy transition investments in 2020 clocked in at a record $501.3 billion, good for 9% Y/Y growth. The firm's analysis shows that both public and private investments in renewable energy capacity came to $303.5 billion, up 2% on the year, thanks mainly to the biggest-ever build-out of solar projects as well as a $50 billion surge for offshore wind.

Yet, one renewable energy source has been conspicuous by its absence: Geothermal energy.

Quote
But that is about to change, with struggling fossil fuel companies about to put their capital and skills to work on something that's far less degrading on the planet.

Oil and gas majors are about to make their biggest geothermal investments in more than 30 years, as geothermal economics improve while financials for the fossil fuel sector continue to pose a major challenge amid stubbornly low energy prices.

Quote
But new technology has gradually been changing the drilling economics in favor of the geothermal sector. Currently, more than 90% of newly drilled geothermal wells are profitable compared to about 10% in the 1990s, thanks in large part to shale oil technologies such as geological sensing, horizontal drilling, and high-intensity fracturing. Meanwhile, newer technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) allow oil and gas companies to create geothermal reservoirs wherever hot rock exists.

Quote
Other than seismically active hotspots, there is a steady supply of milder heat--useful for direct heating purposes--at depths of anywhere from 10 to a few hundred feet below the surface. This heat can be found in virtually any location on earth since it has its origins from when the planet formed and accreted, heat from the decay of radioactive elements, and also from frictional heating caused by denser core material sinking to the center of the planet. 

Indeed, just 10,000 meters (about 33,000 feet) of the earth's surface contains 50,000 times more energy than all the oil and natural gas resources in the world.

Quote
Some experts are optimistic that geothermal's trajectory may follow that of the US shale industry, which exploded in the space of less than two decades. Indeed, geothermal could soon become a ubiquitous renewable energy source with predictable returns, much like the solar and wind industries.

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5262 on: January 25, 2021, 07:36:27 PM »
The EU got more electricity from renewables than from fossil fuels last year.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/24/business/eu-renewable-energy-fossil-fuels/index.html

Quote
History made: Renewable energy surpassed fossil fuels for European electricity in 2020

By Jazmin Goodwin, CNN Business
January 25, 2021

New York (CNN Business)Europeans got more of their electricity from renewable sources than fossil fuels for the first time last year, according to an annual report from Ember and Agora Energiewende.

The report, which has been tracking EU's power sector since 2015, found that renewables delivered 38% of electricity last year, compared to 37% delivered by fossil fuels.

The shift comes as other sources, such as wind and solar power, have risen in the European Union. Both sources have nearly doubled since 2015, and as of last year accounted for one-fifth of electricity generation in EU countries, the report found. It's also the reason why coal power declined 20% last year, making up only 13% of electricity generated in Europe.

Quote
The milestone follows commitments from EU leaders last month to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030. In the United States, renewable energy overtook coal consumption in recent years. Last May, renewable energy sources were consumed more than coal for the first time since 1885.

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5263 on: January 25, 2021, 09:18:01 PM »
Re: WiFi air conditioning

I take it this means that the HVAC install has wifi capacity built in ? or ... ?

I replaced an HVAC setup with a new one couple months ago. The thermostatt wanted to be connected to wifi during setup. I refused, got it to work anyway. I have no desire to have HVAC talk on the net.

sidd

zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5264 on: January 25, 2021, 09:28:56 PM »
@ Ken Feldman

I can't find a breakdown regarding what renewable means. Specifically what percentage is burning wood and garbage? Will N.A. have any forests left in 20 yrs, or not?
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BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5265 on: January 25, 2021, 09:35:38 PM »
@ Ken Feldman

I can't find a breakdown regarding what renewable means. Specifically what percentage is burning wood and garbage? Will N.A. have any forests left in 20 yrs, or not?

https://ember-climate.org/project/eu-power-sector-2020/

The bulk of the change appears to be lower demand .

6% biomass, virtually unchanged since 2012

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5266 on: January 25, 2021, 10:15:20 PM »
@ Ken Feldman

I can't find a breakdown regarding what renewable means. Specifically what percentage is burning wood and garbage? Will N.A. have any forests left in 20 yrs, or not?

Biomass burning is considered renewable.  If they captured the carbon and sequestered (CCS) it, it would actually be a negative emissions technology.

It remains a controversial renewable energy resource because too often the power plants source harvested forests with trees grown specifically to be burned.  And the equipment used to harvest the trees and transport them to the power plants burn fossil fuels. 

Solid biofuels made up 8% of Europe's renewable energy sources in 2020.  Wind and hydropower were each about 35% and solar was 13%.  Solar is the fast growing renewable energy source in Europe.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Renewable_energy_statistics

Quote
[The accounting rules in Directive 2009/28/EC prescribe that electricity generated by hydro power and wind power have to be normalised to account for annual weather variations (hydro is normalised over the last 15 years and wind over the last 5 years). This article presents the results applying these accounting rules.

The growth in electricity generated from renewable energy sources during the period 2009 to 2019 largely reflects an expansion in three renewable energy sources across the EU, principally wind power, but also solar power and solid biofuels (including renewable wastes). In 2019, renewable energy sources made up 34 % of gross electricity consumption in the EU-27, slightly up from 32 % in 2018. Wind and hydro power accounted for two-thirds of the total electricity generated from renewable sources (35 % each). The remaining one-third of electricity generated was from solar power (13 %), solid biofuels (8 %) and other renewable sources (9 %). Solar power is the fastest-growing source: in 2008, it accounted for 1 %. This means that the growth in electricity from solar power has been dramatic, rising from just 7.4 TWh in 2008 to 125.7 TWh in 2019. The share of energy from renewable sources in electricity is presented in Figure 2. /quote]



zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5267 on: January 25, 2021, 10:17:55 PM »
@BeeKnees
Cheers. How this sort of thing passes the smell test is beyond me, it'd better to continue burning the coal.
https://ember-climate.org/project/playing-with-fire/

https://ember-climate.org/project/the-burning-question/

@Ken Feldman
That's why I asked. If they captured the carbon and sequestered (CCS) it from burning coal it would even be better as it has more energy density than wood, but that's unlikely to happen.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 10:23:15 PM by zenith »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5268 on: January 25, 2021, 10:23:53 PM »
Zenith Generation data is available in EIA monthly electricity report Table_1.1_A is net generation from renewable sources (for wood and landfill data) and Table_1.1 Net generation by energy source (for total generation)
For oct 2020
PeriodWindSolar PhotovoltaicSolar ThermalWood and Wood-Derived FuelsLandfill GasBiogenic Municipal Solid WasteOther Waste BiomassGeothermalConventional HydroelectricTotal Renewable Generation at Utility Scale FacilitiesEstimated Solar PhotovoltaicEstimated Total Solar PhotovoltaicEstimated Total SolarTotal all sources
2020 Oct29,4197,0672592,8028344851961,37918,35060,7923,40110,46810,727314,401

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5269 on: January 25, 2021, 10:27:31 PM »
I was to slow and I thought you were interested in North America. I Washington state most wood to electricity is mill waste. It is sawdust and end pieces burned to power the mill and the drying kilns. I think that is true in the rest of the US but I am not certain. I know we burn medical waste but I believe we just ship trash overseas. Preexisting landfills are tapped for methane.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 10:42:24 PM by interstitial »

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5270 on: January 26, 2021, 01:06:32 AM »
@BeeKnees
Cheers. How this sort of thing passes the smell test is beyond me, it'd better to continue burning the coal.
https://ember-climate.org/project/playing-with-fire/

https://ember-climate.org/project/the-burning-question/

@Ken Feldman
That's why I asked. If they captured the carbon and sequestered (CCS) it from burning coal it would even be better as it has more energy density than wood, but that's unlikely to happen.

No.  Coal is far worse. There currently aren't any CCS plants that are economically feasible.

Once you factor in the fact that the trees that are grown to replace the ones cut sequester carbon, biomass does begin to approach carbon neutrality.  The problem is that it takes decades for the regrowth to sequester the carbon that is released when the wood is burned.  The EU is working on new regulations to address the problems with biomass.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/07/14/not-biomass-carbon-neutral-industry-admits-eu-reviews-policy/

Quote
Not all biomass is carbon neutral, industry admits as EU reviews policy
Published on 14/07/2020

The EU is working on stricter sustainability criteria for bioenergy, posing a challenge for the industry and several member states

By Frédéric Simon for Euractiv

Leading industry figures acknowledge that not all biomass brings benefits to the climate, insisting that only low-value wood and forest residues should make the cut under EU law.

Quote
However, what critics fail to acknowledge is the long-term positive effects of biomass on the climate, Junginger added, saying bioenergy from sustainably managed forests is carbon neutral in the long run because trees re-absorb carbon dioxide as they grow.

Quote
The timeframe criteria does not necessarily speak in favour of biomass. In November last year, the European Parliament declared a “climate emergency”, calling on the Commission and member states “to urgently take the concrete action needed in order to fight and contain this threat before it is too late”.

Fortunately wind and solar are increasing enough to replace the biomass and the coal.

zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5271 on: January 26, 2021, 02:31:47 AM »
Perhaps you should listen to the Vaclav Smil lecture i posted up-thread. In energy terms you're saying that burning twice as much wood as you'd need to burn coal is better. That's going backwards. Trees left living in the earth are still sequestering carbon, this all sounds very convoluted to me. You should listen to that lecture for many reasons.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5272 on: January 26, 2021, 05:56:47 AM »
I think their is only 1 post combustion CCS project in the US. The others convert coal to syngas first. It is used on only 1 unit of a thee unit coal plant. It only sequesters part of the CO2. The CO2 is used to extract more oil from the oil field. With all that it is not economical. Its more public relations than reality. I think there is a new project coming online soon.   


Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5273 on: January 26, 2021, 05:53:29 PM »
Re: WiFi air conditioning

I take it this means that the HVAC install has wifi capacity built in ? or ... ?

I replaced an HVAC setup with a new one couple months ago. The thermostatt wanted to be connected to wifi during setup. I refused, got it to work anyway. I have no desire to have HVAC talk on the net.

sidd

The Internet of Things.  Handy to make the AC less wasteful by, for example, letting the house remain closer to ambient temperature while you are away, and using your cell phone to let it know when you are on your way back so that the inside temp is tolerable when you arrive.  Also useful for demand-control during high use periods, if you opt-in to allowing a degree or so leeway during extreme weather.

But yes, it is a problem when the internet connection goes down, especially for appliances that have no means of manual control. Or when someone else uses the connection to wreak havoc.... Skipping the WiFi connection to some appliances is often a good choice.
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Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5274 on: January 26, 2021, 07:40:38 PM »
Perhaps you should listen to the Vaclav Smil lecture i posted up-thread. In energy terms you're saying that burning twice as much wood as you'd need to burn coal is better. That's going backwards. Trees left living in the earth are still sequestering carbon, this all sounds very convoluted to me. You should listen to that lecture for many reasons.

No.  Confusing biomass with wind and solar is a strawman argument.  I'm not if favor of burning biomass unless their is effective carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the power plant.  Adding CCS makes it economically uncompetitive though.

And all of the fossil fuels need to be left in the ground.  The energy density arguments are just fossil fuel tool and climate denier bs. 

There is more than enough wind and solar to meet our needs and geothermal can provide baseload support where needed.  Batteries are improving and will eventually meet our transport needs, even in aircraft.

I think that we should focus on solar, wind, and geothermal.  Some battery installations to help with load balancing and instant dispatch will be needed.

Other renewables like hydro and biomass have very limited utility because scaling them up has tremendous environmental impacts.  While it may make sense to maintain existing hydropower plants and upgrade their generation capability where possible, it doesn't make sense to build new ones in many places.  Biomass also has potential when it can use waste wood from sawmills or paper plants, but when harvesting forests for pellets, it doesn't.

I think biomass is a dead end and will eventually fade out.  It's similar to the "natural gas as a bridge fuel" argument.  At first it seemed to be a promising technology but the industry morphed it into something that is more damaging in practice than the theoretical promise.  (Nuclear has the same problem).

Solar is now the least expensive method to generate electricity in history.  People can install solar panels on building rooftops, over parking lots, and even over farmland when managing the planting correctly. 

Wind is still cost competitive with solar and offshore wind can generate a lot of electricity with much higher capacity factors.  So wind may be competitive.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5275 on: January 26, 2021, 09:12:45 PM »
Perhaps you should listen to the Vaclav Smil lecture i posted up-thread. In energy terms you're saying that burning twice as much wood as you'd need to burn coal is better. That's going backwards. Trees left living in the earth are still sequestering carbon, this all sounds very convoluted to me. You should listen to that lecture for many reasons.

You should not forget that all your solar panels and windturbines are build with gaint quantities of oil, gas, coal...And one day you will have to replace them all, again and again and again. And wood is the only thing you can burn without changing the balance. And you know what your supply is. How sure are you about your delivery of oil, gas, solar panels in the future .And whene wood becomes more importand, than what you have to make sure. That you have plenty of it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5276 on: January 26, 2021, 09:55:22 PM »
USA Energy Data - mostly to October 2020 from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The first image shows Solar + Wind continuing the upwards steepening curve.

The second image showing how Solar + Wind is biting lumps out of US electricity production from coal.

The third image shows that there is a long long way to go, and it's solar + wind + batteries + EVs that will have to do it. Jensen's Paradox** rules.
______________________________________________
**when technological progress or government policy increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand.
 
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 10:33:06 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5277 on: January 26, 2021, 09:59:00 PM »
Perhaps you should listen to the Vaclav Smil lecture i posted up-thread. In energy terms you're saying that burning twice as much wood as you'd need to burn coal is better. That's going backwards. Trees left living in the earth are still sequestering carbon, this all sounds very convoluted to me. You should listen to that lecture for many reasons.

You should not forget that all your solar panels and windturbines are build with gaint quantities of oil, gas, coal...And one day you will have to replace them all, again and again and again. And wood is the only thing you can burn without changing the balance. And you know what your supply is. How sure are you about your delivery of oil, gas, solar panels in the future .And whene wood becomes more importand, than what you have to make sure. That you have plenty of it.
This tired old argument again. The more electricity made by renewable sources the less oil gas coal are involved. Every year the amount of fossil fuels involved decreases. Jinko solar new 20 GW per year manufacturing plant will be powered by 100% solar. Heavy duty trucking will soon have electric options. Oil, gas and coal run out if anything future supply of those is more questionable than renewables. Nothing lasts forever. fossil fuel power plants require maintenance and replacement too. Most of the materials in solar panels are recyclable and work is being done to recycle the rest. Trees are more important as carbon sinks and habitat then energy from wood.

zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5278 on: January 26, 2021, 10:10:49 PM »
 @Ken Feldman
"Batteries are improving and will eventually meet our transport needs, even in aircraft."
If that ever happens, which is unlikely, you're proposing to load up transportation with bombs waiting for detonation in an accident.

As for the rest of your ideological wish list, I'm waiting to grow angel wings to fly out of this insane asylum.
Where is reality? Can you show it to me? - Heinz von Foerster

zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5279 on: January 26, 2021, 10:14:39 PM »
@interstitial

Dr. Vaclav Smil understands he wasted his time writing 44 books as people want to believe what they want to believe. His book on power densities is considered the bible on the subject in some professional circles though.
Where is reality? Can you show it to me? - Heinz von Foerster

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5280 on: January 26, 2021, 10:27:43 PM »
abundance of elements in earths crust
Oxygen      46%
Silicon       28%
Aluminum   8.3%
Iron            5.6%


Solar cells are mostly silicon and aluminum

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5281 on: January 26, 2021, 10:30:50 PM »
Quote from: zenith
His book on power densities is considered the bible on the subject in some professional circles though.
But still rather irrelevant if you can build renewables offshore and on rooftops so the space the resources uses is mute.

On the biomass question I do think there is a place for using waste from other sources, including managed forestry for contribution to long term stored energy instead of burning coal/ FF gas.  Importing clear cut forest from many miles away is an abomination.

Simon

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5282 on: January 26, 2021, 10:36:24 PM »
@Ken Feldman
"Batteries are improving and will eventually meet our transport needs, even in aircraft."
If that ever happens, which is unlikely, you're proposing to load up transportation with bombs waiting for detonation in an accident.

As for the rest of your ideological wish list, I'm waiting to grow angel wings to fly out of this insane asylum.
No I think Ken Feldman is essentially correct. Solar PV and wind are the way forward and thankfully they are now cost competitive. Planes can be made to fly using batteries as power although they are confined to 12 seater 500 mile range at the moment but this can be made to improve.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5283 on: January 26, 2021, 10:57:58 PM »
@Ken Feldman
"Batteries are improving and will eventually meet our transport needs, even in aircraft."
If that ever happens, which is unlikely, you're proposing to load up transportation with bombs waiting for detonation in an accident.

As for the rest of your ideological wish list, I'm waiting to grow angel wings to fly out of this insane asylum.
No I think Ken Feldman is essentially correct. Solar PV and wind are the way forward and thankfully they are now cost competitive. Planes can be made to fly using batteries as power although they are confined to 12 seater 500 mile range at the moment but this can be made to improve.

I agree that, finally, renewables especially solar are going to absolutely dominate in ten years, but competitive aeronautical transport is yet to welcome a breakthrough technology based on electricity.

Not even hydrogen fuel cells are competitive enough, and that’s because the lightest hydrogen carrier is a poly hydrocarbon molecule such as those found in kerosene. Competition to clean energy is very tough here.

Low fuel burn alternatives such as Otto Aviation laminar flow aircraft for continental flights are interesting options in the meantime (low cost for the passenger too!)

https://www.ottoaviation.com/

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5284 on: January 26, 2021, 11:36:47 PM »
@interstitial

Dr. Vaclav Smil understands he wasted his time writing 44 books as people want to believe what they want to believe. His book on power densities is considered the bible on the subject in some professional circles though.
All of this is off topic in this thread. This thread is for reporting about progress in renewable energy. Other threads were created for discussing if renewable energy makes sense. Please move this discussion to one of those.

Fossil fuels are being displaced in solar production as renewable energy grows.

zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5285 on: January 26, 2021, 11:37:25 PM »
@interstitial
"Solar cells are mostly silicon and aluminum"

Electronic grade silicon (CVD process): 7,590-7,755MJ (2,108,700 to 2,154,900 watt-hours).
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/what-is-the-embodied-energy-of-materials.html
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5286 on: January 26, 2021, 11:40:58 PM »
@interstitial

Dr. Vaclav Smil understands he wasted his time writing 44 books as people want to believe what they want to believe.
This is an insulting statement implying others are wrong without arguing anything.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5287 on: January 26, 2021, 11:42:45 PM »
@Ken Feldman
"Batteries are improving and will eventually meet our transport needs, even in aircraft."
If that ever happens, which is unlikely, you're proposing to load up transportation with bombs waiting for detonation in an accident.

As for the rest of your ideological wish list, I'm waiting to grow angel wings to fly out of this insane asylum.

Yeah, because gasoline is so safe :o

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/03/500-gas-car-fires-per-day-can-we-please-get-serious-about-electric-car-battery-fires/

Quote
More Than 150 Gas Car Fires Per Day — Can We Please Get Serious About Electric Car Battery Fires?

June 3rd, 2019 by Steve Hanley

Quote
According to a recent FEMA report, “from 2014 to 2016 an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss. These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation.”

The report adds, “Approximately one in eight fires responded to by fire departments across the nation is a highway vehicle fire. This does not include the tens of thousands of fire department responses to highway vehicle accident sites.”

In May, three people were killed when a gas station in Virginia exploded. In February, two cars were destroyed when a gas station in North Carolina burst into flames.

The point is, the vehicles we use to get from Point A to Point B all rely on large amounts of stored energy, whether it is in liquid form like gasoline or in the form of electrons stored in batteries. We think nothing of it until something goes wrong.

The news media likes to focus on the dangers of electric cars while ignoring that there are more than 150 fuel fires in vehicles in America every day. Whether that’s because of the “If it bleeds, it leads” mentality in the news business or because of the influence of traditional automakers and behind-the-scenes actors like the disinformation network sponsored by the Koch brothers, the impression the public gets is that electric cars are scary, potentially dangerous devices. Better think twice before buying one.





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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5288 on: January 26, 2021, 11:46:23 PM »
@interstitial
"Solar cells are mostly silicon and aluminum"

Electronic grade silicon (CVD process): 7,590-7,755MJ (2,108,700 to 2,154,900 watt-hours).
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/what-is-the-embodied-energy-of-materials.html


MJ per what? per gram of silicon, per ton of silicon or per all the silicon ever made

zenith

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5289 on: January 26, 2021, 11:52:22 PM »
It tells you in big bold letters at the top of the page that's per kg.

Vaclav Smil isn't against renewable energy, he lays out his argument(s) extremely comprehensibly and comprehensively.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 12:02:37 AM by zenith »
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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5290 on: January 27, 2021, 12:09:48 AM »
Has Vaclav Smil published anything since wind and solar became cheaper than fossil fuels in 2018?  That video posted upthread was made in 2015.

Capacity factors for wind turbines now exceed those for coal and natural gas power plants.  Solar power is the cheapest electricity in history.  Utility scale batteries are so cheap that new solar farms with battery storage are less expensive than natural gas peaker plants.  Solar is so cheap that utilities can save money by building new solar farms and shutting down operating coal power plants.

Forecasts made five years ago are worthless.  They need to be updated for the huge changes that have occurred in the past two years.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 12:38:40 AM by Ken Feldman »

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5291 on: January 27, 2021, 12:14:35 AM »
India is rapidly revising its future electricity production plans by replacing coal with renewables and battery storage.  Because batteries, wind and solar are cheaper than coal.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/battery-storage-cheaper-than-new-coal-power-plants-analysis/80403303

Quote
Battery storage cheaper than new coal power plants: Analysis

The report finds the levelized cost of energy for a hypothetical hybrid, solar, wind and li-ion battery storage system for the state to be Rs 4.97/kWh in 2021, which falls to Rs 3.4/kWh by 2030

IANS January 22, 2021

A new economic viability analysis on Friday revealed that renewable energy along with battery storage in Tamil Nadu is cost competitive with new coal power plants.

The report finds the levelized cost of energy for a hypothetical hybrid, solar, wind and li-ion battery storage system for the state to be Rs 4.97/kWh in 2021, which falls to Rs 3.4/kWh by 2030.

In comparison, cost of electricity produced from new coal power plants in Tamil Nadu is between Rs 4.5-6/kWh.

Quote
"The system thus demonstrates that RE coupled with battery storage is a technically and financially viable option to building new coal capacity. At the same time, it would be a dispatchable source of power that addresses the grid integration of intermittent solar and wind power," added Jyoti.

Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5292 on: January 27, 2021, 01:42:38 AM »
Solar costs have decreased at an exponential rate in the last decade and are expected to decrease another 25 to 50% by 2030.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/not-slowing-down-solar-will-be-cheapest-power-resource-in-us-by-2030-wo/593798/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link

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'Not slowing down': Solar will be cheapest power resource in US by 2030: WoodMac
Emma Penrod
Jan. 22, 2021

How cheap could solar power get? So cheap, Wood MacKenzie's Manghani said, that someday power generators may let solar energy "go to waste" by installing more solar capacity than needed and simply turning off the excess generation when it's not.

"It's not a bad thing, because at the end of the day, if the cost is still below the other resources, you might still go with solar," Manghani said.

In the early 2010s, Manghani said, analysts who watch the solar industry anticipated slow but steady cost reductions as the industry grew. What they didn't see coming, he said, was the exponential rate at which the industry would reduce costs as it scaled rapidly.

Quote
These cost declines might make one think that the age of falling solar prices is behind us, Manghani said, but he doesn't believe that is the case.

"The cost decline trend is not slowing down any time soon," he said. "Yes, there are some externalities that may change, on a short-term basis, but the level of innovation we've seen in the industry makes us feel good about the cost reduction possibilities that exist."


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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5293 on: January 27, 2021, 03:12:17 AM »
electronics grade silicon was used at one time because scrap was available. The purity for solar panels is closer to 6N as compared to 9N for electronics grade silicon.
Real data for a factory in Vancouver Washington produced (1998-1999) PV grade silicon using 117 kwh/kg instead of the 2109 kwh/kg needed for the process you describe for electronics grade silicon. Efficiency improvements in all parts of the value chain made pv's cheaper to manufacture. These improvements include reducing the amount of energy involved in making PV grade silicon. With more than 20 years of improvements I have no doubt it will be much lower now. PV costs have dropped more than 90% in that period. This argument of high energy input of silicon was somewhat relevant in the early 1990's. I wish I could find more recent data however as costs dropped the industry became more competitive and processes have become proprietary.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 03:17:19 AM by interstitial »

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5294 on: January 27, 2021, 03:31:41 AM »
117000 wh/kg is about 56 average days in the US to produce the power for mining, refining, manufacturing and  installation of the panels. Based on energy used in for the process in 2000.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5295 on: January 27, 2021, 03:47:34 AM »
Generation
Now that November 2020 numbers are in I can Judge how close those hourly generation numbers came to official generation numbers. As I expected they were close the hourly numbers were equal to or lower than monthly numbers and only around a percent off. Looking at the raw hourly numbers there were a few data gaps that appear to be the source of any discrepancies.  The only other problem is the way they report biomass seems to have changed.


Capacity
November capacity numbers for everything but wind were close. Solar added slightly more capacity while natural gas and coal lost slightly more then scheduled changes. Those differences were under 150 mw. Wind was the big surprise it was 3.5 gw under predicted expansion for November. I wonder if those were just delays because I read about some supply chain disruptions in wind.


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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5296 on: January 27, 2021, 07:29:19 AM »
India is rapidly revising its future electricity production plans by replacing coal with renewables and battery storage.  Because batteries, wind and solar are cheaper than coal.

Yes, that is true for new capacity. But once you have built the coal plants, like China and India during the past decade, the sunk costs are big, and variable costs for coal are still lower than new capacity for renewables, so economically it is still logical to keep them running

BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5297 on: January 27, 2021, 11:40:58 AM »

Yes, that is true for new capacity. But once you have built the coal plants, like China and India during the past decade, the sunk costs are big, and variable costs for coal are still lower than new capacity for renewables, so economically it is still logical to keep them running

This is becoming less true over time.
The more time a coal plant sits idle and the more time it is required to ramp up and down then the less efficient it becomes and the less income it generates.

Eventually you get to a point where the economics fail, either because the ongoing capital cost is greater than the amount the plant can earn or that it is squeezed out of the lucrative peak prices by other more responsive sources like gas and storage, which results in an income that may not meet the total running costs including the time it is offline. 

The capacity factors of existing coal in China are already 50%, I wonder how much lower they can go before the plug starts to be pulled, not just on new plants, but also existing ones.


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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5298 on: January 27, 2021, 12:03:46 PM »
True but there are inherent costs, especially in offshore wind farms, which are not always factored in when comparing with Coal/Gas/Oil.

Quote
The total annual O&M cost varies between 15 and 45 €/MWh. The cited reports do not mention the size of the wind farms, nor the distance to shore. It seems likely though, that these aspects have great influence on the O&M cost. An average (line in Fig. 4.2) for O&M cost is determined at 30 €/MWh (€ 0.03 per kWh), by calculating a boxplot based on the middle 50%, omitting the maximum and minimum outliers, which are considered as unreliable or exceptional

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-51159-7_4

I get that this is an older document, published in 2017 but based on 2012 work and even as far back as 2002.  However this work also needs to calculate in the expected age of wind farms and we have not yet reached that for most wind farms.  Where they hit replacement age.

€45 per MW/h is close to the retail grid price of UK power.

Whilst Governments continue to subsidise wind and solar, this will not be a big issue.  But when they stop, calculations will be done.

Meanwhile the government support helps drive the market, turbine sizes increase allowing less to be deployed reducing O&M costs.

But they must not be ignored.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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BeeKnees

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #5299 on: January 27, 2021, 02:40:55 PM »
The whole purpose of LCOE is to factor in all the costs,

With fewer turbines producing more power then it's fairly reasonable to assume that the O&M cost has fallen since the research was conducted.

I think there is a bigger question though.  At the end of the 15 year CfD will the wind farms be repowered to increase power / reliability or will they be allowed to continue for their expected 25-30 year lifespan.  Probably a bit of both but the improvements in technology make the former more and more likely. 

One thing is pretty certain, when they hit replacement age repowering will be significantly cheaper than the original cost.