Renewable Energy

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An aluminum battery that can charge in a fraction of a second
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/03/12/an-aluminum-battery-that-can-charge-in-a-fraction-of-a-second/


sounds like a capacitor but what do I know.

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The weekend read: Unprecedented plans and investments in Chinese PV production capacity
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/03/13/the-weekend-read-unprecedented-plans-and-investments-in-chinese-pv-production-capacity/

The total module capacity of the top 12 manufacturers – including the two largest overseas players, Hanwha and VinaSolar –had reached 168 GW by the end of 2019, and grew to 268 GW by the end of 2020. Astonishingly, total module capacity is expected to grow to 392 GW by the end of 2021, according to Solarzoom.

China is expected to install over 80 gw of solar this year and 70-90 gw each year going forward.
By my own estimations 1100 gw of solar with enough storage would be sufficient to push fossil fuels off of the US power grid. (an additional 350 gw will be needed for transportation) A 2021 estimate made before coronavirus package which was loaded with renewable stimulus was for 27 gw of solar to be installed in the US in 2021.


Capacity will probably exceed demand but 392 gw is enough supply to get the world where it needs to be in short order.

[Sigmetnow]

The U.S. solar industry posted record growth in 2020 despite Covid-19, new report finds

U.S. solar installations reached a record high during 2020 as favorable economics, supportive policies and strong demand in the second half of the year offset the impacts from the coronavirus pandemic.

Installations grew 43% year over year during 2020, reaching a record 19.2 gigawatts of new capacity, according to a report released Tuesday from the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenize.

During the fourth quarter alone, the U.S. added slightly more than 8 gigawatts of capacity — a new quarterly record. To put the number in context, during all of 2015, 7.5 gigawatts were added. One gigawatt is enough to power roughly 190,000 homes. The U.S. currently has 97.2 GW of total solar capacity installed, enough to power roughly 17.7 million homes.

California, Texas and Florida were the top three states for annual solar additions for the second year running. Virginia and North Carolina rounded out the top five.

Following a slowdown in the second quarter as the pandemic ground operations to a halt, residential solar saw a record-setting sales pipeline in the second half of the year, boosted by customers interested in home improvements. The report's authors believe this momentum in the back half of the year likely continued into 2021.

On the utility solar front, annual capacity additions jumped 65% from the prior year.

"The recent two-year extension of the investment tax credit (ITC) will drive greater solar adoption through 2025," said Michelle Davis, senior analyst from Wood Mackenzie, referring to the tax credits extended in December as part of the coronavirus relief and government spending package. …

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/16/the-us-solar-industry-posted-record-growth-in-2020-despite-covid-19-new-report-finds.html

[Sigmetnow]

Video.  Solar savings for small Arkansas town’s school led to teacher raises up to $15,000.
School turns solar power to higher teacher paychecks.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/schools-solar-panel-savings-give-every-teacher-up-to-15000-raises/

[KiwiGriff]

Capacity will probably exceed demand but 392 gw is enough supply to get the world where it needs to be in short order.

Growth in capacity will result in driving the price downward making solar even more competitive .

[Sciguy]

A record amount of wind power was installed in 2020, despite the pandemic.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Wind-Power/Wind-Energy-Installation-Breaks-Records-In-Pandemic-Year-2020.html

Wind Energy Installation Breaks Records In Pandemic Year 2020
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 16, 2021

Analysts had largely expected an increase in wind capacity installations due to the change in policy incentives in major markets. Yet, the volume of additions in China, the United States, and globally exceeded even the most optimistic projections, signaling that the wind power industry shook off the COVID-19 shock in early 2020 and took full advantage of government policies to support renewable energy.   

Record Global New Wind Capacity

Wind power developers around the world commissioned a record-setting 96.7 gigawatts (GW) of installations in 2020, up by a massive 59 percent compared to the 60.7 GW installed in 2019, according to the latest data from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF). The rise in new build capacity last year was largely due to soaring installations in China and the United States.

China alone commissioned 57.8 GW of new wind capacity in 2020, nearly equal to the capacity the entire world had commissioned in 2019, according to BNEF estimates.

[Sciguy]

Under current policies, US solar installations are estimated to quadruple by 2030.

https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight

U.S. Solar Market Insight
Updated March 16, 2021

The U.S. installed 19.2 gigawatts (GWdc) of solar PV capacity in 2020 to reach 97.7 GWdc of total installed capacity, enough to power 17.7 million American homes. Solar accounted for 43% of all new electricity-generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2020, representing solar’s largest ever share of new generating capacity and ranking first among all technologies for the second year in a row. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the U.S. solar industry will install more than 324 GW of capacity over the next 10 years, quadrupling the current amount of solar capacity installed.

The executive summary of their report is available at this link:

https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2020-year-review



They provided detailed explanations for thier forecast.  Here's an example from the section on utility scale installations:

The next five years are likely to be a momentous time for utility solar, with both upside potential and downside risks. Through 2020, there was a rush to get projects signed and eligible for the federal ITC before it phased down to 10%. This created a surge of demand, contributing to the record-setting 69 GW pipeline.

While the two-year ITC extension gives some developers flexibility to push back project completion dates by a year or two, most will continue to bring their projects online as scheduled due to offtaker requirements. This will likely result in more than 19 GW of utility-scale solar projects deployed in 2023 alone. Years 2024 and 2025 will see lower annual capacity additions as utilities begin to ramp up procurement, resulting in annual totals above 19 GWs again in 2026.

From 2026 through 2030, annual capacity additions will continue to grow from 19 to 41.8 GW. The tremendous surge in utility solar in the latter part of the decade is due to a confluence of factors. Cost declines in large-scale battery storage, increasing cost competitiveness of utility-scale solar, robust clean energy targets from governments, corporations and utilities, growth in economy-wide electricity demand, and the need to replace retiring coal and natural gas plants will drive a huge volume of new solar deployment.

There is considerable upside opportunity during this time. President Biden re-joined the Paris Climate Accord in February, which has already driven a handful of power offtakers to revisit and possibly increase their renewable energy procurement targets. And the possibility of a national federal policy demanding more renewables or carbon reduction is already driving states and utilities to adopt new solar and renewables mandates.

[vox_mundi]

Study Finds Plants Would Grow Well In Solar Cell Greenhouses
https://news.ncsu.edu/2021/03/plants-solar-cell-greenhouses/

A recent study shows that lettuce can be grown in greenhouses that filter out wavelengths of light used to generate solar power, demonstrating the feasibility of using see-through solar panels in greenhouses to generate electricity



... Because plants do not use all of the wavelengths of light for photosynthesis, researchers have explored the idea of creating semi-transparent organic solar cells that primarily absorb wavelengths of light that plants don't rely on, and incorporating those solar cells into greenhouses. Earlier work from NC State focused on how much energy solar-powered greenhouses could produce. Depending on the design of the greenhouse, and where it is located, solar cells could make many greenhouses energy neutral—or even allow them to generate more power than they use.

But, until now, it wasn't clear how these semi-transparent solar panels might affect greenhouse crops.

To address the issue, researchers grew crops of red leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa) in greenhouse chambers for 30 days—from seed to full maturity. The growing conditions, from temperature and water to fertilizer and CO2 concentration, were all constant—except for light.

A control group of lettuces was exposed to the full spectrum of white light. The rest of the lettuces were dived into three experimental groups. Each of those groups was exposed to light through different types of filters that absorbed wavelengths of light equivalent to what different types of semi-transparent solar cells would absorb.

"The total amount of light incident on the filters was the same, but the color composition of that light was different for each of the experimental groups," says Harald Ade, co-corresponding author of the study and the Goodnight Innovation Distinguished Professor of Physics at NC State.

"Specifically, we manipulated the ratio of blue light to red light in all three filters to see how it affected plant growth," Sederoff says.

To determine the effect of removing various wavelengths of light, the researchers assessed a host of plant characteristics. For example, the researchers paid close attention to visible characteristics that are important to growers, grocers and consumers, such as leaf number, leaf size, and how much the lettuces weighed. But they also assessed markers of plant health and nutritional quality, such as how much CO2 the plants absorbed and the levels of various antioxidants.

"Not only did we find no meaningful difference between the control group and the experimental groups, we also didn't find any significant difference between the different filters," ...

Balancing Crop Production and Energy Harvesting in Organic Solar Powered Greenhouses, Cell Reports Physical Science,,(2021)
https://news.ncsu.edu/2021/03/plants-solar-cell-greenhouses/




... Fig.5BThe number of hours in 1 year that the temperature in the greenhouse cannot be maintained below the temperature setpoint used to grow tomatoes of 82°F (27.8°C) reduces from 280 h for a conventional greenhouse to 82 h for a ST-OSC-integrated greenhouse with the DBR coating added to the OSC stack.

Fig. 5C shows the annual energy demand and solar power generation for each of the simulated greenhouse cases discussed here when using the FTAZ:IEICO-4F:PC71BM active layer. We see that the ST-OSC integrated greenhouse without DBR achieves net-zero energy demand for annual operation. Adding the NIR-reflecting DBR coating to the OSC stack improves power generation by 10%, resulting in an increase in surplus energy of the system.

The increased power generation is due to the increased reflection in the spectral region that is absorbed by IEICO-4F. Note that the energy demand decreases when adding the OSC to the greenhouse structure, which is largely attributed to the low-ε of the indium tin oxide (ITO) electrode, discussed further below.

While the results show immense promise, it is important to remember that NIR light management will be highly dependent on the location of the greenhouse. The DBRs provide better temperature control in summer, but the greater NIR reflection may lead to greater heating demand in winter, particularly in colder climates. Thus, the use of DBR coatings to manage light over the visible and NIR spectra will be dependent on the crop, the energy demands of the greenhouse, and its geographical location.

[vox_mundi]

New Perovskite Fabrication Method for Solar Cells Paves Way to Large-Scale Production
https://www.lanl.gov/discover/news-release-archive/2021/March/0318-perovskite-solar-cells.php

Perovskite photovoltaics, seen as a viable competitor to the familiar silicon-based photovoltaics on the market for decades, have been a highly anticipated emerging technology over the last decade. Commercialization has been stymied by the lack of a solution to the field's grand challenge: scaling up production of high-efficiency perovskite solar cell modules from the bench-top to the factory floor.

The research paper shows a new route to fabrication by introducing sulfolane as an additive in the perovskite precursor, or the liquid material that creates the perovskite crystal through a chemical reaction. As in other fabrication methods, that crystal is then deposited on a substrate.

Through a simple dipping method, the team was able to deposit a uniform, high-quality perovskite crystalline thin film covering a large active area in two mini-modules, one of about 16 square centimeters and the other nearly 37 square centimeters. Fabricating uniform thin film across the entire photovoltaic module's area is essential to device performance.

The mini modules achieved a power conversion efficiency of 17.58% and 16.06%, respectively. Those efficiencies are among the top achievable efficiencies reported to date. The power conversion efficiency is a measure of how effectively sunlight is converted into electricity.

For other perovskite fabrication methods, one of the major roadblocks to industrial-scale fabrication is their narrow processing window, the time during which the film can be laid down on the substrate. To get a uniform crystalline film that's well bonded to the layer below it, the deposition process has to be strictly controlled within a matter of seconds.

Using sulfolane in the perovskite precursor extends the processing window from 9 seconds to 90 seconds, forming highly crystalline, compact layers over a large area while being less dependent on the processing conditions.

The sulfolane method can be easily adapted to existing industrial fabrication techniques, which helps to pave the path toward commercialization.

A perovskite is any material with a particular crystal structure similar to the mineral perovskite. Perovskites can be engineered and fabricated in extremely thin films, which makes them useful for solar photovoltaic cells.

Hsin-Hsiang Huang et al, A simple one-step method with wide processing window, Joule, March 18, 2021
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435121000891?dgcid=author

[Freegrass]

Life Cycle Assessment is becoming a vital component in the design and planning stages of any new raw material acquisition project. Switching to renewables is an important step towards a more sustainable future but those technologies all still require vast resources to be dug out of our earth. Optimising the efficiency of those mining and processing operations can hugely reduce their impact.

[gerontocrat]

The US EIA has issued it's latest energy update -mostly data to Dec 20- https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The graphs attached are all monthly data using the 12 month trailing average.

Wind+Solar - definite signs of an accelerating upward trend

Primary Energy Consumption still on the downward trend (12 month trailing average) despite an uptick in the monthly data.

Electricity generation Natural gas stuck at 46% of total, Coal down, Solar+wind up.

The last image looks at coal and natural gas inputs and outputs for electricity, contrasted with solar+wind. One unit of energy from wind+solar saves at least 3 energy units input from coal,. from natural gas at least 2.

click images to enlarge

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For electricity generation the generation by source numbers reported on the real time graph (actually it adds yesterdays data) provide accurate data to a level that the differences are indistinguishable on a monthly graph. An occasional gap of a few hours on one source or another is rare but such gaps do occur. The graph includes Realtime data for February and an estimate for March based on interpolation of the first 24 days. In a week all of March will be included. As you can see coal use is up and natural gas use is down. Overall natural gas is down more than coal is up. This continues the very slow decline of fossil fuels overall. Hydro capacity is largely unchanged with weather providing most of the variation in generation. 
Nuclear is suffering a slow death with in increased number of closures this year with only the Vogtle project scheduled to go online. Despite the 1.1 gw Vogtle reactor going online a net loss of 4 gw are expected this year.


Capacity factors for coal appear to continue to decline though not as much as spring 2020 seemed to indicate. As I got into a discussion about earlier capacity can stabilize and even reverse for coal if they go on a spree of plant closures. Price increases for natural gas have caused a small resurgence of coal consumption.
The use of diesel generators continues to decline.
Using the annual heat rates for coal and natural gas as well as monthly prices paid by utilities I calculated an estimated fuel cost per kwh of coal and natural gas. Coal prices are largely set by long-term contract supplemented by a small immediate delivery market. This is evident in the stable but slowly declining cost of coal. Natural gas prices were once closely tied to petroleum prices but now fluctuate more independently as volumes in power production increased. I have only included fuel costs not delivery and handling costs which tend to be higher for coal.


The next graph is capacity by source in GW. By capacity their are three main types of natural gas sources. A steam turbine can be uses with a variety of fuels including coal and natural gas. Anything that produces significant heat can be used to drive a steam turbine. Thermal cycling of the blades is a major source of wear on the turbines and should be done slowly and infrequently as possible. Turbine blades are grown from a single crystal and once they wear out it is usually more economical to tear the plant down and rebuild rather then replace the damaged blades. These are fairly efficient and economical for the conversion of heat into electricity. Efficiency falls quickly if run at less than full load. These are usually run for days or weeks though frequency of cycling is a large source of wear. Converting a coal plant to natural gas primarily involves replacing the boiler fuel.
A gas fired combustion turbine is in essence a large stationary jet engine. Expanding gas burned in a constrained environment cause a rotor to spin. While thermal cycling of combustion turbines is a source of wear tolerances are not so tight and they can be cycled in minutes not hours. While not as efficient or long lasting the quick cycling time has made them the main source of peak power for utilities. Efficiencies decline quickly if run at less than a full load. Most utilities have a series of small combustion turbines that can be ramped up and down quickly. This is why they are often referred to as peaker turbines. These are often run for only a few minutes or hours. They may ramp up and down to fill in gaps between large power plants turning on and off.
The third major type is a combined cycle. the combined cycle uses a combustion turbine with the exhaust used to heat a boiler. The steam is used to power a secondary steam turbine. Combinations of one or more combustion turbines power the steam turbine. This is the most efficient type of power plant and efficiencies can reach too the upper 60 percentiles. These are ramped up and down slowly and as infrequently as practical. These usually runs for a few days to weeks.
The replacement of diesel engines with cheaper natural gas is driving the increase in a fourth type. Combustion engines are more complicated than turbines and have higher maintenance costs. Their main advantage is the ability to maintain high levels of efficiencies over the upper half of the load range. This coupled with fast start and stop times make them useful to provide more flexibility in meeting variable loads. Not only are natural gas versions replacing the more expensive diesel fuel options but they seem to be used more often, as shown in the capacity factor graph, to complement renewable sources.

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gerontocrat in your monthly generation 12 month average graph would you consider reporting conventional hydro as separate from the rest. Please either bundle it with solar and wind as renewable, by itself or with nuclear as low carbon. I do not really consider most biomass or landfill gas favorably either.

[Iain]

Scotland is nearly there on net zero for electricity - 97.2% in 2020

We have the advantages of lots of wind and good connections to more heavily populated England top soak up any excess


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56530424

[vox_mundi]

Scientists Propose Highly Reliable Thermal Power Generator
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-scientists-highly-reliable-thermal-power.html



Chinese scientists have proposed a highly reliable thermal power generator by combining thermoacoustic effect and triboelectric effect.

The latest research, published online in Applied Physics Letters and selected as a featured article, was directed by Prof. Luo Ercang and Prof. Yu Guoyao from the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry (TIPC) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

In this work, scientists invested a novel thermal power generator which could convert thermal energy into electric energy. No solid moving part consists is one of the attractive features of this novel generator. The generator could be highly reliable and readily to achieve a long life span. Besides, this generator promises a theoretically high heat-to-electric conversion efficiency.

This novel thermal power generator called thermo-acoustically driven liquid-metal-based triboelectric nanogenerator (TA-LM-TENG), which includes two parts: thermoacoustic engine (TAHE) and liquid-metal-based triboelectric nanogenerator (LM-TENG).

The TAHE first converts thermal energy into acoustic energy via oscillatory thermal expansion and contraction of the working gas. The LM-TENG then converts the acoustic energy into electrical energy via the coupling effect of contact electrification and electrostatic induction.

As shown in the schematic, when heating the hot heat exchanger of the TAHE, the working gas in the engine will start spontaneous oscillation. The oscillatory motion of working gas pushes the liquid metal column resonantly flowing upward and downward in the U-shaped tube. Liquid metal immersed and separated with the Kapton material periodically. The generator therefore generates an alternate electric potential difference at the electrodes. Electrical power is extracted from the TA-LM-TENG.

In the preliminary experiments, the scientists obtained a highest open-circuit voltage amplitude of 15V on a conceptual prototype.

Shunmin Zhu et al. Thermoacoustically driven liquid-metal-based triboelectric nanogenerator: A thermal power generator without solid moving parts, Applied Physics Letters (2021)
https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0041415

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.
Biden administration backs sweeping new offshore wind power program
03/29/21

The Biden administration on Monday announced a new plan to dramatically scale up the use of offshore wind power that it said could create tens of thousands of new jobs while transitioning the country to clean energy.

The plan's goal is to generate 30 gigawatts of offshore energy by the end of the decade, which could power homes for 100 million people while reducing emissions by 78 million metric tons, an administration official said in briefing reporters.

As part of the target, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said the department will set up the Wind Energy Areas for the New York Bight, an offshore area stretching from Long Island down the coast of New Jersey that includes nearly 800,000 acres for potential offshore wind farms.

“This area is home to more than 20 million people and is the largest metropolitan population area in the U.S., which translates to a significant demand for energy,” Haaland said.

The Interior Department, she said, is initiating the environmental review of what would be the country’s third commercial-scale offshore wind project off the New Jersey coast, spearheaded by Ocean Wind, LLC.

Haaland called the goal a vital part of mitigating environmental crises that she noted disproportionately affect poor and nonwhite communities.

“For generations, we’ve put off the transition to clean energy and now we’re facing a climate crisis. It’s a crisis that doesn’t discriminate - every community is facing more extreme weather and the costs associated with that,” she said. “But not every community has the resources to rebuild, or even get up and relocate when a climate event happens in their backyards.”

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the investments would advance U.S. energy security while combatting climate change.

“DOE is going to marshal every resource we have to get as many American companies, using as many sheets of American steel, employing as many American workers as possible in offshore wind energy—to drive economic growth from coast to coast,” she said. 

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/545394-biden-administration-announces-target-of-30-gigawatts-of-offshore

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US offshore wind is focused on the east coast but I am not sure why. It may be higher population density? Maybe it is just trying to get started somewhere in the US? Maybe the continental shelf makes the pacific too deep?

[Sigmetnow]

US offshore wind is focused on the east coast but I am not sure why. It may be higher population density? Maybe it is just trying to get started somewhere in the US? Maybe the continental shelf makes the pacific too deep?

Without further research, I’d say all this is correct.  Wind power off the east coast of the U.S. has been proposed for decades, but to date has not yet gained traction, due to “don’t ruin my ocean view” and fossil fuel interests.

[Sigmetnow]

Biden proposal: $174 billion for EVs, new funds for renewable power 

The proposal seeks to extend tax credits for wind, solar and energy storage facilities by ten years, driving down the cost of the technologies for energy buyers. The plan will also leverage the government’s purchasing heft and require that federal facilities be powered around the clock with carbon-free sources.

It also calls for $15 billion for projects that demonstrate emerging energy technologies like carbon capture and storage, advanced nuclear and hydrogen.

At the same time, the plan vowed to do away with subsidies and tax loopholes for fossil fuel companies and to require polluters to pay into a fund for environmental cleanup.

To assist workers displaced by the transition away from fossil fuels, the plan also includes $16 billion to employ hundreds of thousands of workers to plug orphan oil and gas wells and clean up abandoned mines.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-infrastructure-climate-chan-idUSKBN2BN136

In Congress, Democrats can use the one remaining Reconciliation process for the year to pass this bill without Republican support, if needed.

[gerontocrat]

A good chance that this will happen.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/02/09/south-korea-to-build-worlds-largest-offshore-wind-farm
South Korea to build ‘world’s largest’ offshore wind farm

The project is predicted to be seven times larger than Hornsea

South Korea has unveiled plans to invest $43.2 billion (£31.4bn) in building what is claimed to be the world’s largest offshore wind farm.

The project, constructed off the coast of the southwestern town of Sinan, is predicted to be seven times larger than the current largest offshore wind plant. To date, the world’s largest offshore wind farm is Hornsea 1 in Britain, which has 1.12GW capacity.

This new wind farm is forecast to produce 8GWh of electricity, equivalent to the power generation of six nuclear power plants, officials said.

President Moon Jae-in attended the ceremony that was held to celebrate the agreement and said: “The electricity produced will be enough amount to power every household in Seoul and Incheon.

“It will be an offshore wind pension that is paid for life to local residents.”

He also emphasised that the economic benefit from the project will be enormous as nearly 120,000 jobs are forecast to be created by 2030.

In October, Mr Moon announced a new commitment for the country to become carbon-neutral by 2050.

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Its may be to early to call it a trend but US electricity generation from natural gas was lowest in March at 62 TWH since April of 2017 (April typically is the lowest demand month of the year. It was also the lowest March since 2014. The narrative being pushed by some is that this represents some rebound in coal. That narrative is not really supported by the numbers. After early 1900's the earliest a lower amount of electricity was produced by coal was April 2019. Of the 22 months since that time only 6 months were lower 4 of which were the first most extreme covid-19 lockdown. At best(for coal advocates) I would say coal has stabilized but more likely it will continue to fall.


Wind set another all time high record in March with 40 TWH . The next highest number was set in November with 34 TWH. Solar set a March record high at 11 TWH. Solar is growing fast enough to set a new monthly record every month.

[Sciguy]

The shift to renewables is accelerating rapidly.

https://ieefa.org/ieefa-u-s-energy-transition-to-renewables-likely-to-accelerate-over-next-two-to-three-years/

IEEFA U.S.: Energy transition to renewables likely to accelerate over next two to three years
Coal, gas set to become biggest losers as renewable generation climbs quickly

March 31, 2021 (IEEFA) — The speed and scope of the energy transition to renewables will pick up pace over the next two to three years, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis’ U.S. Power Sector Outlook 2021.

Solar and battery storage adoption is enjoying almost exponential growth, and wind and solar technology improvements have helped turn the two resources into the least-cost option across the United States.

The increase in renewables is happening largely at the expense of coal. Wind capacity has doubled since 2012, and solar capacity has doubled since 2016. Utility-scale wind and solar accounted for more than 10 percent of total U.S. electricity generation in 2020 for the first time.

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https://ieefa.org/xcel-proposes-85-cut-in-carbon-dioxide-emissions-at-its-colorado-utility-by-2030/
Xcel proposes 85% cut in carbon dioxide emissions at its Colorado utility by 2030
2.3gw of wind, 2.8 gw of solar 0.4 gw battery, 560 miles of 345 kva of transmission lines connecting plains to city. This seems like a serious plan they will actually achieve. They have specific details of what is needed to get most of the way in 9 years. It would be better if they did it by a few years earlier but this seems more aggressive and honest then most.


https://www.mining.com/germany-to-shut-1-5-gw-of-coal-generation-by-december/
Germany to shut down 1.5 GW of coal generation by December


https://ieefa.org/california-aiming-to-install-1700mw-of-new-battery-storage-by-summer/
California aiming to install 1,700MW of new battery storage by summer
this is up from 1.5 gw anounced earlier.

[Sciguy]

A Texas shipyard that used to build offshore oil rigs is now building offshore wind turbine assembly ships instead.  And the Texas oil industry is poised to invest heavily in renewables as the oil and gas industry becomes increasingly unprofitable.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/offshore-wind-power-brownsville-shipyard-renewable-energy/

America’s Offshore Wind–Powered Future Begins in a Texas Shipyard
 By Jeffrey Ball
May 2021

During an extraordinary oil boom at the outset of the twenty-first century, the yard cranked out a steady stream of “jack-up rigs.” As tall as skyscrapers, these offshore platforms tap petroleum miles beneath the ocean floor and fetch about $250 million apiece. Five years ago the yard birthed a 21-story-tall beast called the Krechet, then the largest-ever land-based oil-drilling rig. But the Krechet—Russian for “gyrfalcon,” the largest falcon species and a predator of the Arctic tundra—has proved something of a dinosaur. Now pulling up oil for Irving-based ExxonMobil and its partners in Sakhalin, an island off Russia, it’s likely the last such oil rig the shipyard will ever build.

Today, in a pivot that reflects an oil-and-gas industry transformation sweeping Texas and the globe, the Brownsville yard’s workers are fabricating a new sort of ship. Like the old-style oil rigs, this offshore-energy vessel will head out to sea, lower its hulking steel legs onto the ocean floor, jack itself up on those haunches until it straddles the water’s choppy surface, and, in a dance of power and precision, drop into the murky depths machinery that will penetrate the subsea rock. This time, though, the natural resource the ship seeks to exploit isn’t oil. It’s wind.

To any Texan inclined to laugh off the renewable-energy business, offshore wind offers a bracing reality check. From the sums wagered to the engineering required, it is, much like the oil industry, a game for those with deep pockets, strong stomachs, and big gear. A posse of politicians, eager allies of oil, wrongly blamed the disastrous failure of Texas’s electric system during February’s winter storm on frozen wind turbines. They implied that fossil fuel remains the only reliable energy source. Yet, more and more petroleum players, who must answer not just to home-state politicians but to global shareholders, are demonstrating through their investments that they view alternative energies as a source of growth for corporate profits walloped by an epic oil-industry slump.

Both the multinational company that owns the Brownsville yard and the one that designed the wind-energy vessel rank among the world’s largest oil-industry contractors. Both reported revenues last year of more than $6 billion; both racked up gaping losses on those sales; and both are seeking toeholds in renewable-energy markets. Oil’s problem is profound. In part, it’s the short-term shock of COVID-19, which has slashed global economic activity. More fundamentally, it’s the gradual petering out of the past century’s seemingly inexorable growth in oil demand. Mounting concern about climate change, as well as the advancement of cleaner technologies—from electric vehicles to homes powered by the wind and the sun—have triggered a long-term transition to increasingly affordable alternatives to fossil fuels.

While recent oil-and-gas returns have been terrible, “there’s a lot of money on the come” in renewables, said George O’Leary, an analyst for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., an energy-focused Houston-based investment bank. The firm is emblematic of the Texas oil patch’s changing worldview—long focused on oil and gas but now diversifying aggressively. O’Leary likens Texas oil executives’ newfound enthusiasm for renewables to their infatuation fifteen years ago with oil-and-gas plays in shale; until new technologies slashed the cost of tapping it, mining the rock had been widely dismissed as uneconomic. Fossil-fuel alternatives, O’Leary told me, are “almost like Shale 2.0.”

[Sciguy]

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has posted its 2020 summary online.

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Apr/IRENA_-RE_Capacity_Highlights_2021.pdf?la=en&hash=1E133689564BC40C2392E85026F71A0D7A9C0B91

Renewable energy has dominated new capacity installation the past few years.  In 2020, 82% of new capacity was renewables, compared to 73% in 2019.  Renewables now account for 36.6% of total generating capacity.

In 2020,  renewable  generating  capacity  expanded  by far more than in recent years and well above the long-term   trend.   However,   most   of   this   increase   in   expansion occurred in China and, to a lesser extent, the United   States.   Most   other   countries   continued   to   increase   renewable   capacity   at   a   similar   rate   to   previous years.The surge  in renewable capacity expansion in  2020  increased  the  share  of  renewables  in  total capacity expansion, which reached 82% in 2020 compared to a figure  of  73%  in  2019.  The  renewable  share  of  total  generation  capacity  also rose by  two  percentage  points from 34.6% in 2019 to 36.6% in 2020.

The upward trend in these shares reflects not only the rapid and increasing growth of the use of renewables but  also  the  declining  expansion  of  non-renewable capacity. At the global level, the latter is also affected by the large amount of net decommissioning that has occurred for many years in some regions.

[Sciguy]

US offshore wind is focused on the east coast but I am not sure why. It may be higher population density? Maybe it is just trying to get started somewhere in the US? Maybe the continental shelf makes the pacific too deep?

Here's a good summary on why the US east coast has been more favorable to early offshore wind developments.

https://nawindpower.com/east-coast-west-coast-very-different-offshore-wind-industries

It goes into details about the reviews that are done before areas are open to leasing.  However, ocean depth does play a big role.

One of the biggest challenges facing the West Coast’s offshore wind industry is the ocean depth. Off the East Coast, there is a relatively steady increase in depth, whereas on the West Coast, the ocean floor drops off steeply and, within a few miles from the coast, drops to more than 4,000 feet. Because of the dropoff, most wind farms on the West Coast will have to use floating wind turbines. Although used in the global market, floating offshore wind turbines are a relatively new – and more expensive – solution.

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https://nawindpower.com/east-coast-west-coast-very-different-offshore-wind-industries

good info thanks.
There are only two operating coal plants in western coastal states that I am aware of. Transalta in Centralia Washington which is scheduled to close in 2025 has a 670 MW unit and Argus a 63 MW unit in California. Transalta is not close to the coast or at a particularly heavy load center. The currently operating Argus California coal plant is close to neveda and not the ocean. The three other closed California units are two 35 mw units and one 60 mw unit are relatively small and inconvenient to the ocean. Connecting to closer load centers would be easier. The closed Boardman coal plant is on the wrong side of the state to be useful. LA does have a large stake in a Utah coal plant. But it will be converted to run on hydrogen and is located in a different state. I do not think the author looked before suggesting locating wind near recently closed or soon to be closed coal plants.

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I think this is a good way to depict where US is on electric generation. The other two major sources of generation are nuclear and hydro which have been stable for decades. All other sources, like geothermal and petroleum, are relatively insignificant. April 2021 numbers are an estimate. Presenting it this way makes the switch from coal to NG not evident so the focus is on fossil fuels and renewables which will replace them.

[oren]

A small request, as I find these charts useful and informative and often want to share them, could you modify their titles to something like "US Monthly Electricity Generation"? And label "Natural Gas" instead of NG. This will make it more self-explanatory.

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A small request, as I find these charts useful and informative and often want to share them, could you modify their titles to something like "US Monthly Electricity Generation"? And label "Natural Gas" instead of NG. This will make it more self-explanatory.

sure

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April 2021 estimated based on first 6 days

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This helps to show how often different plant types are used. Coal has fallen from around 70% before this chart to about 45-50%. That despite all the closures so far. The natural gas combine plant is the most efficient and used the most often. Capacity factors are near maximum for this type of plant. The last three types of natural gas plants are used for peaking services. Notice the capacity factor of these plants is about the same as 4 to 6 hours of battery storage. They can all run much longer of course. When a coal plant is converted it becomes a natural gas steam turbine. The combustion turbine is the typical type of peaker plant because it can start and stop quickly.
Most new natural gas plants are combined cycle or combustion engines. combustion engines are built now instead of combustion turbines. Combustion turbines are slightly more efficient at full loads than combustion engines but the efficiency of the turbine falls off quickly at smaller loads. The engine remains relatively efficient across most loads above 40%. Only the engines are run at less than full load. About 1/3 of new natural gas plants built in 2020 were engines that can smoothly match the load transitions of solar and wind.

[oren]

Thanks!

[BeeKnees]

Probably overly optimistic but the rate of change suggests Wind and Solar could overtake Coal and Gas in some months within 5 years.

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Probably overly optimistic but the rate of change suggests Wind and Solar could overtake Coal and Gas in some months within 5 years.

yes  it depends on how fast things move forward. probably in april it seams to be the lowest month for coal and gas. If I added hydro  it looks better but hydro is not really changing in the US so it made sense to drop it. Bidens plan calls for 50 gw a year for ten years. 2020 was a record year for renewables at 29 gw. If we achieve those levels it could happen sooner.

[oren]

The over optimism stems mainly from the fact that the US has much better numbers than China and India and so on, so globally the overtake point is much further away. I wonder what this chart looks like for the EU though.

[Sciguy]

Wind and solar produced 42.5% of Texas' electricity in March.  Wind alone saw a huge increase over previous March totals.

https://electrek.co/2021/04/07/egeb-texas-wind-power-smashes-records-in-march/

EGEB: Texas wind power smashes records in March
Michelle Lewis
- Apr. 7th 2021

In March, Texas grid operator ERCOT’s wind power generation smashed its previous record. Wind topped 10.4 million megawatt-hours (MWh) during the month, which is 2 million MWh above its previous high set in December 2020, according to data from the Energy Information Administration’s hourly electric grid monitor.

For March, solar generation topped 1 million MWh, a level it had only reached three times previously, in June, July, and August 2020.

Combined, wind and solar accounted for 42.4% of ERCOT’s output during the month, well ahead of gas, at 30%, and coal, at just 14.9%.

[Sciguy]

Saudi Arabia has begun a 1.5 GW solar farm.  Electricity will start flowing to the grid in the second half of 2022.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1840096/business-economy

Saudi PIF launches massive 1.5-GW Sudair Solar Energy project
Arab News
April 09, 2021

RIYADH: The Saudi Public Investment Fund has launched the Sudair Solar Energy project in Sudair Industrial City, one of the largest solar parks in the country.
A consortium with ACWA Power, which is 50% owned by PIF, and Badeel, will invest SR3.4 billion ($907 million) in the 1.5-GW solar PV project, Al Arabiya reported.
The first phase of the project is expected to begin producing electricity during the second half of 2022 at the second-lowest price ever achieved globally for a solar PV project, 1.239 cents per KWh.
The plant will meet the energy needs of 185,000 houses and reduce carbon emissions by about 2.9 tons annually.

[Sciguy]

^^^
That project in Saudi Arabia is part of a group of seven new projects that will total 3.6 GW.  One of the projects has set the new record low price for electric power at $0.0104/kWh.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/08/saudi-arabias-second-pv-tender-draws-world-record-low-bid-of-0104-kwh/

Saudi Arabia’s second PV tender draws world record low bid of $0.0104/kWh

The record low price was offered for the 600 MW Al Shuaiba PV IP project, which competed in the second round of the country’s procurement scheme for renewable energies.
April 8, 2021 Emiliano Bellini

The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, revealed today that power purchase agreements for seven large-scale solar power projects in various regions of the Kingdom were signed by the government and several undisclosed developers.

“The output capacity of these projects, in addition to the projects of Sakaka and Dumat Al-Jandal, will amount to more than 3,600 MW,” he said in a statement, adding that one of the projects – the 600 MW Al Shuaiba PV IP project – will sell power at a world record low price of $0.0104/kWh. The project was selected by the Ministry of Energy in Round 2 of the procurement scheme that is being held under the umbrella of the country's National Renewable Energy Program (NREP).

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I tried to do the same thing for EU as US but there are some differences. In the US I ignored nuclear and hydro mostly because the were essentially unchanged from 2000. EU hydro is about the same but nuclear has declined. In the US oil for electricity generation is hard to distinguish from the zero line. In the US other renewables are above zero line but flat and essentially unchanged were in EU they grew. In the EU I think this is mostly biomass which is renewable but not really carbon neutral in my opinion. EU plot is yearly data so I made yearly US plot.

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I am seeing renewed calls by utilities to restructure their net metering programs. In many US markets this is just an excuse to discourage customers from adding solar but at least in California a change is needed. The problem in short is best explained with prices. Typical prices in California run around $11 a mwh during the day and $53 a mwh at night. While it may not seem fair that a daytime mwh be traded for less than a full night time mwh given the price disparity a change is justified. Allowing this to continue causes those without solar to pay $53 a mwh for all their daytime mwh. IMO the most equitable solution would apply a time of day factor to the credits. This would allow the true value to go to the solar owner without punishing others. In markets with little solar this could actually give a premium to solar as daytime usage is greater than night time usage. A flat fee favors larger systems. This allows greater benefits for early adopters. It also provides a mechanism to encourage the addition of batteries as well.

[gerontocrat]

Electricity production - IEA Update again - ( https://www.iea.org/reports/monthly-electricity-statistics ) data for Jan 21

2 graphs for OECD+China+India attached - both 12 month trailing average

Wind + Solar - OK, it's growing.
Electricity production by source. use of coal and natural gas recovering.

Added Electricity Production by Source - USA, & diito for China

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April 2021 data estimated based on first 14 days of the month. April is typically the lowest generation month for coal and gas. It is also a top generation month for wind and one of the better months for solar generation.

[Sciguy]

April 2021 data estimated based on first 14 days of the month. April is typically the lowest generation month for coal and gas. It is also a top generation month for wind and one of the better months for solar generation.

Nice to see wind up 10% 10 GW in one year (~30% increase) on the US April electricity production chart.  And solar's rapid climb is good to see too.

From Gero's stacked graphs, it looks like natural gas growth and coal decline almost cancel out so all of the growth in US electric production in the last five years is due to wind and solar.

Also, it appears that the OECD plus China and India growth in wind and solar is close to doubling by 2023, or about seven years from the start of the graphs.  And with the installation of wind and solar rapidly increasing, we should see another doubling of installed renewable capacity before in less time before 2030.  Given the slowing in electricity demand, that will mean the retirement of most of the remaining coal and some of the natural gas plants.

Modified as noted in the two following posts.  Thanks for catching the mistake!  Even better news than I thought.

[BeeKnees]

Nice to see wind up 10% in one year on the US April electricity production chart.  And solar's rapid climb is good to see too.

Am I reading it wrong and it's a 10GWh increase, which is an enormous increase.

[NeilT]

Seems to be 10GWh which is 33%.

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In my desire to report information right away I use some estimates and scheduled activities that may not happen. I try to make it clear that I have done this so the reader understands that the numbers may change and by how much.  In the first 14 days of April 2021 this year 18.527 twh of electricity from wind have been generated. We are on track for a 10 twh increase compared to April 2020 but the month is not over yet.
 
Wind generation is determined by weather and by capacity. I have not looked at any forecasts for wind generation in the next two weeks. For an example of weather impacts on wind generation in February 2021 wind generation was slightly lower than February 2020 wind generation despite the addition of 15 gw of generation capacity between the end of January 2020 and January 2021. The freezing weather is most likely the reason for this year to year decline in wind generation.
 
Changes in capacity are reported almost two months after the month ends. April nameplate capacity will be reported around the 25th of June. Grid connections may take a long time to get approved depending partially on if any upgrades are needed. So using scheduled connections can provide an estimate. A connection scheduled for this year usually happens but it may be completed early or late. A good example of this occurred last year 14 gw of wind was scheduled to come online in December 2020. The surge was due to a tax credit that was set to expire at the end of the month. The tax credit was later renewed. There was a news story that wind contractors were behind due to Covid 19. By the end of December only 7 gw of wind were installed. Another 2 gw were added in January 2021. Numbers have not yet been reported for February or later. I fully expect all of that 14 gw of capacity has been added or will be shortly. Most probably the rest of that capacity was completed in late February or early March 2021. Why? YOY wind generation was down in February 2021 but up about 10 gw in March 2021.
 EDIT: changed gwh to twh

[BeeKnees]

They are still very impressive figures even if the final totals are lower than is being projected. 

Thank you for the explanation.  We all know that increased capacity does not guarantee increased generation, just makes it more likely so Feb being second highest on record is not really a disappointment, just part of the rising trend.

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I can't believe I missed this, some of my graphs are labeled wrong. I will fix the recent ones. The EIA reports generation in thousands of megawatt hours (mwh) and nameplate capacity in megawatts (mw). I have been reporting generation in gigawatt hours (gwh) when I should have been reporting it in terawatt hours (twh). I was correctly reporting nameplate capacity in gigawatts (gw)

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While onshore wind will continue to grow in the US year over year growth in gw per year of new capacity is unlikely to exceed that in the near term from what I read. Wind has great value but projects do not make sense everywhere.
I expect solar to start growing much faster. It is economic nearly everywhere and battery storage is starting to unlock its true value. It is much cheaper than wind.
Growth in US wind exceeded growth in solar in 2014 and 2019. It would have exceeded solar in 2020 as well but many of those projects were delayed to this year. 16.2 gw of wind and 16.9 gw of utility scale solar are scheduled for this year. That will be a record for both though that does not include several gw of wind projects that were not completed in December 2020. That does not include residential solar and other small and behind the meter projects which represent half of solar generation. It also does not include any solar projects that have yet to schedule grid connections. Even without those other items 33.1 gw of added capacity in 2021 exceeds 2020's 29 gw of added capacity.
 
2020 capacity factors were 24.9% for Solar and 35.4% for wind. Nameplate capacity increased 15.0 gw for Solar and 14.2 gw for wind during the same time period. This should add about 2.7 twh of solar and 3.6 twh of wind per month on average. In 2021 adding a scheduled 16.9 gw of solar and 16.2 gw of wind should result in an additional monthly increase of 3.0 twh of solar and 4.1 twh of wind. A recent graph I posted showed an increase of 10.7 twh for wind in March of 2021 over March 2020. 6.3 twh of the difference was due to an increase in the amount of wind turbines and 4.4 twh was due to more wind blowing in March 2021 compared to March 2020.