Bob, I try to answer step-by-step because I believe in this way I can explain better what I tried to explain in all the last posts. It is not complicated to understand but I have the feeling our viewpoints are different: You seem to look on the costs to produce electricity and I try to explain that the price we get on the market is not enough to cover the costs of renewables. And that this problem is a matter of principle because we did design the market like that.
I didn't deal with end-user solar. That's not how utilities purchase energy. (BTW, I've had panels in my yard for over 20 years. I've been off the grid for over 25 years.)
Here all renewables go in the grid and change the prices on the market. If your PV is not at the grid it will not change market prices - you only step out of the market. Future utilities are we, because the renewables are produced decentral by us poeple.
Danish and German retail electricity prices are high due to taxes, not the cost of electricity. Best to use wholesale electricity prices when making comparisons.
I don't have wholesale prices but I can show you the price charged medium sized industries in the EU. You'll notice that both Germany and Denmark are lower than the EU 27 average.
That is not the complete thruth: Of course we have taxes (in Germany 19% VAT + eco tax and others), and grid price but also the subsidies are in that price (EEG): So the difference between cost of renewables and the price they fetch at the market is directly put on end-users price. In germany that is 6 ct/kWh. See the composition of the end-users price here:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strompreis#mediaviewer/File:Strompreiszusammensetzung_2014.png To look at the prices industry pays in Germany may be very misleading, since the "big consumers" do not pay that EEG to help them against competition from countries without "Energiewende". So some of them pay reduced prices and some others not.
As Germany has added renewables to their grid their wholesale cost of electricity has fallen. Yes, it took FiT systems up front to get the German solar industry started, but now solar has matured to the point where support is basically not needed. Don't make the mistake of comparing the cost of new wind or new solar with paid off coal or nuclear. New:new is the proper comparison.
If renewables are not competitve then you need to explain why Germany wholesale prices have been dropping...
And why solar has knocked the price of wholesale power to the basement on sunny days...
Bob, the pictures you show are very similar to the ones I attached above (but for some reasons I can see your pictures only on my phone and not on my computer - so sometimes I will miss information you give, sorry for that). But please read them in the right way: The prices we get on the market are not the costs we have producing power with PV or wind - because subsidies are there and will be there.
To explain why renewables are not competitive but caused the price drop is easy: We have feed-in-tarife here, the producer (that is e.g. me with PV on my roof) today gets about 10 ct/kWh for a 15 years time whenever sun is shining. This power is sold on the market at the price the market finds: That is a low price at noon (e.g. <4ct/kWh), since a lot of poeple have PV on their roof. The difference of 6 ct per kWh I deliver is put on the electricity bill of all customers by our EEG law.
If this subsidies where not present I would get only the 4ct/kWh and I would not be able to pay of my investions. And furthermore nobody would invest anymore, since the more PV is in the market, the lower is the price you get at noon. You see, since we want to increase renewables we need this subsidies to make that happen. Do you understand now, the market can not do that in principle?
Can/do they tune nuclear?
I'm not sure what you are asking. Is it whether US reactors can load-follow? If so I think a few might be able to but most can't. (Not sure of any of that.)
You do realize that load-following makes nuclear-electricity more expensive, do you not? Nuclear has very, very limited variable costs. Almost all of the costs are fixed, slowing production saves no money to speak of. Fuel is only $0.0079/kWh (less than a penny) and if the plant is dropping production by dumping steam then they aren't even saving fuel. The cost of nuclear...
Total annual costs / total annual production = X
If you load follow and drop output by 50% then it's...
Total annual costs / 0.5 total annual production = 2X
Bob, with "tuning" I mean more than "load-following": The conventional power plans must follow load minus production by renewables. That is way more challenging, since on a windy day in Denmark or a sunny Sunday in Germany 100% of the demand is produced by reneables, the prices on the spot markets are about 0 ct/kWh and every plant burning something should be just off.
Of course our nuclear does not tune: They have only fixed costs for construction, deconstruction and nuclear wast treatment. So they run 24/7. That is the reason why we can shut down them first: In a grid with >25% renewables there is not such a thing as "base load" but a fluctuating "demand minus production by renewables" between 0 and 100%. The next thing to shut down here is brown coal and later hard coal and finaly we have to replace natural gas by power-to-gas... You see the reasons why, if you look at plant utilization attached to my post 555.