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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 670178 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2850 on: September 18, 2019, 06:00:25 PM »
Scientists Identify Weather Event Behind Extreme Cold in Europe and Asia during February 2018
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-scientists-weather-event-extreme-cold.html

... A wave of extremely cold air hit Eurasia in late February 2018, lasting for a month while temperatures broke record lows across Europe. The extreme cold came from a splitting of a cluster of air high above the Arctic, called the polar vortex.

... To predict sudden warming events in the stratosphere, past research mostly studied how the troposphere—the lowest layer of the atmosphere and where Earth's weather occurs—behaved on average prior to events in the stratosphere. But these models did not always catch how temporary weather patterns in the troposphere influenced the stratosphere.

In the new study, researchers tested their hypothesis that a chain of events in the troposphere caused the sudden stratospheric warming and subsequent splitting of the polar vortex. They first looked at weather forecast data in the days and weeks leading up to the sudden stratospheric warming event. They saw the forecasts only seemed to accurately predict the event when they captured a cyclone over Greenland and a high-pressure air mass over Scandinavia in the days before the stratospheric warming.

...The research team also looked at historic weather data and found the same series of events has caused sudden stratospheric warmings in the past. They found these unusual weather patterns occurred 49 times between 1979 and 2017 and foreshadowed 35 percent of the stratospheric warmings in this period.

"It's one mechanism that potentially explains a third of these events historically," Lee said. "That just one event in the Atlantic has contributed to a third of them is quite surprising."


The top panel shows how some forecasts anticipated the sudden stratospheric warming, while the bottom shows what other forecasts anticipated. Ultimately, the warming appeared similar to the top panel forecasts’ predictions.

S. H. Lee et al. Abrupt Stratospheric Vortex Weakening Associated With North Atlantic Anticyclonic Wave Breaking, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2851 on: September 24, 2019, 08:43:16 PM »
Alaska (polar amplification?) is the home state of weird weather:
Changes to Alaska’s environment are many, and so fast
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/science/2019/09/21/changes-to-alaskas-environment-are-many-and-so-fast/
Quote
Wildfire seasons with more than 1 million acres burned (black patches the size of Rhode Island) have increased by 50% since 1990.

Before 2004, Fairbanks residents experienced only one summer with more than three weeks of significant wildfire smoke. Since then, we have breathed in five such summers, including in 2019.

The earliest ice breakup in recorded history of the Tanana River at Nenana was on April 14, 2019. The previous earliest was April 20. Nine of the 10 earliest breakup days there have happened since the mid-1990s.

People in the village of Northway felt the sting of minus-30-degree (Fahrenheit) air about 40 days each year before 1960. In the last 10 years, Northway residents have experienced less than one month per year of such days.

Since 2014, thermometers from Ketchikan to Utqiagvik have recorded from five to 30 times more record highs than record lows. Homer has seen one of the most extreme percentages of record high temperatures since 2014, but all Alaska towns with enduring weather records have experienced way more record highs than lows.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2852 on: September 29, 2019, 01:48:34 AM »
U.S.:
A possibly historic snow storm in the West plus a heat wave in the East — what's going on? -
Quote
Historic snow and a heat wave? That’s what a downright loopy jet stream pattern is bringing to large parts of the United States.

Parts of the Northern Rockies are bracing for what the National Weather Service in Missoula, MT is describing as an “historic winter storm this weekend,” with up to five feet [1.5 meters] of snow forecast. ...

Although this part of the United States is no stranger to early autumn snow, it’s not usually measured in feet.

Meanwhile, parts of the U.S. East Coast are continuing to experience temperatures well above normal for this time of year — and conditions are forecast to heat up even more, potentially to record-high levels next week.

With a stubborn “heat dome” parked overhead, the Southeast has already been enduring one of its hottest Septembers on record. And the strength of the dome is forecast to intensify next week to a point that occurs just one day every 10 to 30 years during this time of year, according to an analysis by meteorologist Rob Elvington of WAAY TV in Huntsville, AL. ...
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2019/09/28/historic-snow-storm-in-the-west-plus-a-heat-wave-in-the-east-whats-going-on/

Edit: more, from 3 months ago:
A Winding Jetstream Brings Weather Chaos Around the Globe – Climate Denial Crock of the Week
https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/22/a-winding-jetstream-brings-weather-chaos-around-the-globe/
« Last Edit: September 29, 2019, 01:54:28 AM by Sigmetnow »
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dnem

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2853 on: October 03, 2019, 12:20:46 AM »
We had one day of measurable precipitation at my house in September for about 0.14 in (3.5 mm). Normal for the month is around 4.1" (104 mm). Absolutely parched and today we broke the all time record high for the month of October at 98 F (36.7 C).  Baltimore, MD USA.

vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2854 on: October 03, 2019, 12:30:53 AM »
Today it was 93°F; tommorrow evening it's expected to be 45°F - Southern Connecticut
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2855 on: October 09, 2019, 02:41:43 AM »
Alaska's average annual temperature has now risen above the melting point.

Quote
IARC Fairbanks (@IARC_Alaska) 10/8/19, 11:44 AM
Over the last 12 months, the average Alaska statewide temperature is 32.7°F [0.4°C]. This is the highest value for the 1925-present time period using NOAA/NCEI statewide values. #akwx
https://twitter.com/iarc_alaska/status/1181596228175351809
Image below.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2856 on: October 10, 2019, 01:48:35 PM »
Temperatures could drop 50 degrees in 24 hours ahead of historic snowfall
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/09/potentially-historic-october-winter-storm-targets-northern-rockies-plains/?outputType=amp

An intense and potentially historic fall snowstorm is expected to dump up to 2 feet of snow starting Wednesday across portions of the north-central United States.

The massive size and intensity of this snowstorm is unheard of for October.

https://twitter.com/TWCChrisBruin/status/1181658401622937601

... A drastic temperature drop Wednesday will make it feel like Denver has gone from fall to winter in 24 hours.

Temperatures there will plummet from a high around 80 degrees Fahrenheit Wednesday to below freezing for Thursday's high.

Much of Colorado will transition from hazardous fire conditions to a freeze warning in only a matter of hours.


Other notable temperature drops this week include:

• Amarillo: From 85 degrees to 29 degrees in 36 hours

• Minneapolis: From 65 degrees to 33 degrees in 33 hours

• Kansas City: From 71 degrees to 41 degrees in 15 hours

• Albuquerque: From 70 degrees to 29 degrees in 15 hours

• Oklahoma City: From 74 degrees to 39 degrees in 18 hours
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Juan C. García

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2857 on: October 10, 2019, 02:36:10 PM »
TV Meteorologists Warming to Climate Science
with Peter Sinclair

Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2858 on: October 11, 2019, 09:06:10 PM »
Well, it’s a little weird I’m wearing shorts and T-shirt in Twinsburg in mid-October.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2859 on: October 13, 2019, 09:38:52 PM »
The recent winter storm hit Manitoba, Canada hard.

Kyle Brittain on Twitter: "Unreal. Seeing longer stretches of snapped hydro poles in a row on the west side of Portage than I've ever seen with any severe thunderstorm or tornado in summer. #mbstorm @weathernetwork”
https://twitter.com/KyleTWN/status/1183094703912181761

October winter weather pummels Manitoba, storm expected to last into weekend | CTV News
https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/october-winter-weather-pummels-manitoba-storm-expected-to-last-into-weekend-1.4634223
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2860 on: October 13, 2019, 10:33:17 PM »
USA October Snow Storm
A warm September meant that trees were still at least partly in leaf + high winds over soggy ground, and wild-life & cattle were late in growing their winter coats.. Crops were about to be harvested.


And afterwards ... so early in the year temperature rebound very possible, fast thaw, flooding.

So the snowstorm impact was more because it was early after a very warm September. It will be not so easy to find out later how much damage has been done.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6026144/winnipeggers-cleanup-october-snowstorm/
Quote
Winnipeg
Arborist Mark Vickers says Thomas isn’t alone. He received hundreds of calls from Winnipeggers with fallen branches covering their front lawns. “I’ve never seen it this bad,” Vickers says, looking out towards the street.

Mayor Brian Bowman said the tree canopy has been severely damaged

So many tree limbs down from on our street. It’s sad to see the trees damaged like this. #winnipegweather #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/ykKDzKSQh0 — Heather Hinam (@SecondNatureMB) October 11, 2019

http://www.startribune.com/blizzard-warning-posted-in-north-dakota-amid-fall-snowstorm/562808382/
NORTH DAKOTA
Quote
BISMARCK, N.D. — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on Friday activated the state's emergency plan due to what he called a crippling snowstorm that closed major highways and had farmers and ranchers bracing for huge crop and livestock losses.

The north-central and northeastern part of the state was taking the brunt of the storm but Bismarck, in the central North Dakota, had nearly a foot of snow by Friday.

"I'm expecting massive crop losses — as devastating as we've even seen," said Jon Nelson, a state lawmaker who farms several hundred acres near Rugby in north-central North Dakota.

Unharvested wheat in the region probably will be a total loss, he said.

"A lot of the standing stuff is flattened to the ground," Nelson said. "It's shot and some guys are putting their combines away and won't bring them out again."

Erika Kenner, who ranches with her parents in Leeds, North Dakota, said she felt helpless Friday as she was unable to check on the family's herd of several hundred cows due to deep, drifting snow.

"I just hear the wind howling and think of those poor cows out there," she said. "Cattle are tough but this kind of weather just wears on them."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2861 on: October 30, 2019, 01:10:07 AM »
U.S.: Denver, Colorado

"I've been covering weather for about 25 years, and I've never stood in weather this cold in October in the lower 48 [states]."
- @mikeseidel
Quote
Mike Seidel (@mikeseidel) 10/29/19, 4:59 PM
So far [Denver International Airport] has picked up 5.9"[150mm] [snow] with [Winter Storm] #Bessie with 3-5" more......a Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MT. And the #cold is extreme: 13°[F, -10.6°C] in Denver, 47° BELOW average. Oh, and the wind chill is -4° [-20°C]. Record lows next 2 mornings ...
https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/1189285557320507393

—-
Billings, Montana:
Quote
NWS Billings (@NWSBillings) 10/29/19, 7:48 AM
Would you believe that it will be 13° warmer in Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK than #Billings today? Amarillo, TX and Utqiagvik will be about the same. #mtwx #akwx #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwsbillings/status/1189146927394258944
Image below.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 01:15:45 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2862 on: October 30, 2019, 01:34:22 AM »
Record (lower 48 States) cold for October at Peter Sinks Utah.

But maybe not so weird at all considering this came from the notoriously cold sink hole that is Peter Sinks. A truly remarkable place.

https://www.wsls.com/weather/coldest-october-temperature-on-record-observed-in-utah

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2863 on: October 30, 2019, 09:28:38 AM »
U.S.: Denver, Colorado

"I've been covering weather for about 25 years, and I've never stood in weather this cold in October in the lower 48 [states]."
- @mikeseidel

The other side of the coin : Central Europe has never had such a warm October.

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2864 on: October 30, 2019, 09:44:15 AM »
It's not a coin. It's an n sided dice, where n is given by the n-pole anomaly and its interaction with oceans and land.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2865 on: October 30, 2019, 04:34:14 PM »
There are 2 poles so n=2 and a 2-sided dice is a coin ;)
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2866 on: October 30, 2019, 05:03:37 PM »
It's not a coin. It's an n sided dice, where n is given by the n-pole anomaly and its interaction with oceans and land.

You must be fun at parties!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2867 on: October 31, 2019, 09:05:11 PM »
Florida

Eric Blake on Twitter: "#Miami is going to destroy its warmest October on record by at least one full degree. In fact it is warmer than ANY September before 1974, and warmer than the 1971-2000 average for AUGUST. Ridiculous period- come on Fall!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1189669517003304960
Image below.
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bbr2314

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2868 on: October 31, 2019, 09:19:54 PM »
Florida

Eric Blake on Twitter: "#Miami is going to destroy its warmest October on record by at least one full degree. In fact it is warmer than ANY September before 1974, and warmer than the 1971-2000 average for AUGUST. Ridiculous period- come on Fall!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1189669517003304960
Image below.
The growing disparity between locations like Miami and San Diego and those like Fargo and Helena is excellent at illustrating how the focus of the heat is increasingly becoming the oceans, while the middle of the continent is becoming the place where this excess is resolved in the form of higher albedo (rather, the oceanic heat is dissipated / resolved as it is transported onto land as snow, and as it travels atop areas of high albedo).

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2869 on: November 08, 2019, 03:50:35 AM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2870 on: November 08, 2019, 07:19:05 AM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
Well, the heat capacity of water is larger than the heat capacity of ground, so WACC is the result, to make it most basicest.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2871 on: November 08, 2019, 01:25:30 PM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
Well, the heat capacity of water is larger than the heat capacity of ground, so WACC is the result, to make it most basicest.

I would not put too much (or any) faith in someone's twitter post.  If that were to occur, just think of the ramifications.

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2872 on: November 08, 2019, 01:50:47 PM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
Well, the heat capacity of water is larger than the heat capacity of ground, so WACC is the result, to make it most basicest.

I would not put too much (or any) faith in someone's twitter post.  If that were to occur, just think of the ramifications.
Yesterday, GFS said Arctic Temperature anomaly would rise  to +5.9 celsius by day 10.
Today - to only about +2.5.

GFS certainly has form in forecasting sudden bursts of warmth in the last days of their 10 day forecasts. Do other models do the same?
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dnem

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2873 on: November 08, 2019, 03:57:31 PM »
There is a way to pull the predicted anomaly minus the realized anomaly at a given offset of days.  I don't recall how to do it, but it was posted here a few years back and the GFS has a pronounced warm bias in the long range forecasts in the arctic in the winter.  They rarely realize.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2874 on: November 10, 2019, 01:15:57 AM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.

I would not put too much (or any) faith in someone's twitter post.  If that were to occur, just think of the ramifications.

The GFS message is the same, regardless of the messenger.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2875 on: November 10, 2019, 02:41:56 AM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.

I would not put too much (or any) faith in someone's twitter post.  If that were to occur, just think of the ramifications.

The GFS message is the same, regardless of the messenger.

Did GFS really saw the hottest Arctic fall in 3 million years?

Klondike Kat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2876 on: November 10, 2019, 02:43:07 AM »
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.

I would not put too much (or any) faith in someone's twitter post.  If that were to occur, just think of the ramifications.

The GFS message is the same, regardless of the messenger.

Did GFS say 28C warmer than normal?

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2877 on: November 10, 2019, 07:42:24 AM »
I don't know the poste of that twitter message but he is clearly not stating the facts.
"Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal." - this is obviously very very far from the truth (the arctic is 1,6 C above normal and will be around that figure for a while)
"not seen for 3 M years" - maybe he should check last fall, or 2017, or 2016. So much for this

bluesky

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2878 on: November 11, 2019, 11:22:25 PM »
"dynamic weather pattern continues this week, with a deep long-wave upper-level trough over the west-southwest and central Europe while to the east, an extensive upper ridge develops. This pattern brings a lot of rain (and snow) into the Alpine region, while it results in an extreme temperature anomaly across eastern Europe."
https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/heatwave-over-eastern-europe-mk/