AGW in general > Consequences

Hurricane Season 2019

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North of the ITCZ, February 18th, 2019.  250 miles from Micronesia, Invest 92W is organizing and has been upgraded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to Medium confidence of development.

GFS has been showing this system growing to Cat 4-5 and then blowing north as an extratropical cyclone, right up the Bering Strait and into the Arctic.

We watched the last hurricane of the season, Oscar, turned out to sea in the Atlantic and then straight into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  Oscar entered the Arctic around November 1, and within days the stratospheric polar vortex began to ping pong around, a displacement which culminated in the polar vortex split and wild winter weather we are still experiencing.

It's a similar set up.  A calm, organized polar vortex at the north pole.  Incoming tropical storm.

Is it too much to anticipate, two major polar vortex disruptions in one winter?

Standard disclaimers:  GFS long range, ECMWF forecasts it much weaker, although it strengthened in the last run.

Invest 92W is now known as Wutip

Typhoon near Guam.

Wutip has winds about 155 mph (1-min mean) now.


--- Quote ---02W WUTIP
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 25, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 140.2°E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb

--- End quote ---
Category 5 in February!


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