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Rod

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #100 on: June 11, 2019, 04:39:45 AM »
They are serving drinks in the Nares Strait thread.  I'm buying one for Tim and Bruce.  We all get stressed as hell when the ice looks so bad this time of the year. 

Hopefully we have more time and we can fix the problems.  If not cheers 🍺  It has been nice knowing everyone. 

Personally, I think we have not yet hit the disaster button, but I think it is getting close! 

Tim

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #101 on: June 11, 2019, 04:42:09 AM »
Well Bruce, I don't see how that's pertinent, what with the 7 billion other people on the planet not on this forum.

But if it interests you, I don't have a bank account, or participate in the economy, or work for a corporation, or participate in consumerism ... or fly, or go out for dinner, or eat meat, or have a retirement in the stock market or the banking system for them to do their thing with ... and etc, etc, etc ... sacrifice ... all starting way back twenty five years ago. I left civilization a long long time ago. I've done more than most people I meet do to not feed the beast out of fear for themselves.

But what does any of that matter? That doesn't do anything to change the wider cultural dysfunction, or people who try to argue that there isn't even a problem. That's why I was speaking up. Against the counter-productive BS'ing about there not even being a problem to solve.

Cheers Bruce. I kind of like how you think. Drinks! But I don't drink.  :-[
.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #102 on: June 11, 2019, 05:11:09 AM »
Tim, The choices we make as individuals does affect society at large just as society affects the individual.
 How we communicate our concern for the enviornment based on sound science is I believe far more convincing if it is mirrored in how we live our lives.
 
   

Tim

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #103 on: June 11, 2019, 05:16:36 AM »
Very good Bruce. Regarding the birds, I have a family of Magpies teaching their young how to fly right now outside of my window. They like being around my place, because they know it's a safe place for them, and that I'm not going to kill them. That's my best reflection of how I live my own life regarding the biosphere. The biosphere likes me, and certainly isn't trying to kill me.

Hahahahaha.

Cheers Bruce. You seem like a good being.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #104 on: June 11, 2019, 07:56:41 AM »



Percentage increase 1980 to 2016 (as a linear trend) in the number of tropical storms worldwide depending on their strength. Only 95% significant trends are shown. The strongest storms are also increasing the most. Red colors show the hurricane category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Graph by Kerry Emanuel, MIT. Creative Commons License CC BY-SA 3.0.

Quote
A significant global increase (95% significance level) can be found in all storms with maximum wind speeds from 175 km/h. Storms of 200 km/h and more have doubled in number, and those of 250 km/h and more have tripled. Although some of the trend may be owing to improved observation techniques, this provides some evidence that a global increase in the most intense tropical storms due to global warming is not just predicted by models but already happening.

However, global warming does not only increase the wind speed or frequency of strong storms (which is actually two ways of looking at the same phenomenon, as frequency depends on wind speed).  The average location where the storms are reaching their peak intensity is also slowly migrating poleward (Kossin et al. 2014) and the area where storms occur expands (Benestad 2009, Lucas et al. 2014), which changes patterns of storm risk and increases risk in regions that are historically less threatened by these storms (Kossin et al. 2016).

Most damage caused by tropical storms is not directly caused by the wind, but by water: rain from above, storm surge from the sea. Harvey brought the largest amounts of rain in US history – the probability of such a rain event has increased several times over  recent decades due to global warming (Emanuel 2017; Risser and Wehner, 2017; van Oldenborgh et al., 2017). Not least due to global warming, sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate and storm surges are becoming more dangerous. A recent study (Garner et al. 2017), for example, shows that the return period of a certain storm surge height in New York City will be reduced from 25 years today to 5 years within the next three decades. Therefore, storm surge barriers are the subject of intensive discussion in New York (Rahmstorf 2017).

While there may not yet be a “smoking gun” – a single piece of evidence that removes all doubt – the weight of the evidence suggests that the thirty-year-old prediction of more intense and wetter tropical cyclones is coming to pass. This is a risk that we can no longer afford to ignore.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/

My view of KK is as an optimist rather than a straight out denier.
I view my self as a realist though you can call me a pessimist '
Climate change  is a matter if risk. It far better to eer on the side of caution  when so much is at stake.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #105 on: June 11, 2019, 08:16:30 AM »
Current storm information.
Quote
02A VAYU
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 11, 2019:

Location: 14.7°N 70.6°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #106 on: June 11, 2019, 12:27:40 PM »

My view of KK is as an optimist rather than a straight out denier.


Whatever he is, his posts have one effect, best described by Tolstoy:

Quote
"At the advent of danger there are always two voices that speak with equal force in the human heart: one very reasonably invites a man to consider the nature of the peril and the means of escaping it; the other, with a still greater show of reason, argues that it is too depressing and painful to think of the danger since it is not in man's power to foresee everything and avert the general march of events, and it is better therefore to shut one's eyes to the disagreeable until it actually comes, and to think instead of what is pleasant. When a man is alone he generally listens to the first voice; in the company of his fellow-men, to the second."
- Tolstoy, War and Peace.

People like KkK roam the IPCC, the science academies and the internet, pretending to be the voice of reason. Calm, collected, quoting out of context and outdated cherry picks that reassures everyone that there is no danger. And everyone gladly accepts it because it is what they want to hear.

It is not the truth. It places us on great danger, but it feels so nice and comfy.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #107 on: June 11, 2019, 01:12:34 PM »
I agree with Tom and Kiwi. This all can be explained by (misguided) optimism. Kat has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

That said, i wonder when this thread will calm down and goes on topic again. Endless debates of who might be a troll are tiring and aren't helpful.

If someone thinks someone isn't suited for this forum, isn't the way to go to bring it to Nevens attention? He has shown to act accordingly when the concerns are grounded in reality.

Can we please stop accusing and insulting other members now?

Tim

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #108 on: June 11, 2019, 03:12:12 PM »
I agree with Tom and Kiwi. This all can be explained by (misguided) optimism. Kat has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

That said, i wonder when this thread will calm down and goes on topic again. Endless debates of who might be a troll are tiring and aren't helpful.

If someone thinks someone isn't suited for this forum, isn't the way to go to bring it to Nevens attention? He has shown to act accordingly when the concerns are grounded in reality.

Can we please stop accusing and insulting other members now?

So correcting completely false information with a rebuttal and more accurate information and empirical observations from actual science instead of ten year old cherry picked papaers is off topic?

You people here prefer false information, and don't want it to be rebutted with real observations then?

I see what the problem is. Carry on with your garbage information sharing then.

This place is turning out to be a ridiculous joke.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #109 on: June 11, 2019, 03:24:03 PM »
Tim, I sympathize. But are both KK and you going to insist on having the last word? If so, by the end of the year this thread will have 1,000 posts, 450 from you and 450 from KK.
When I started here, a couple bullies ganged up on me. I defended myself a little while, and then just dropped it (and nearly dropped ASIF, BTW). If you think KK is unsuitable for this forum, tell neven. But you have controverted KK's posts several times each, isn't that enough? If KK makes another post you disagree with, controvert that one, but let the old ones go.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #110 on: June 11, 2019, 03:32:33 PM »
The rebuttal is fine, Tim. (Even though i would argue against even that, but that's another topic entirely).

You did way more than only pointing out your arguments though. There was some name calling as well. If you can't make your argument without that, your opinion is valued less. This hurts your right cause and your valid arguments. This is not what you want either.

You pointed out a social problem before. Bad communication is also a social problem.

Tim

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #111 on: June 11, 2019, 03:33:25 PM »
No Tom. I can't support a site that backs flagrant liars. You guys keep your klondike kat, people like me will just leave. I don't want to read anti-science. That's the result you get when nobody corrects someone like  that and their intentional obfuscation game, you get to keep the liar, and the people who actually follow science closely will just leave.

This is not a good place to go for climate discussion when you have to wade through garbage and misinformation from weirdos with an agenda. I'll go elsewhere.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #112 on: June 11, 2019, 03:47:07 PM »
Well, Tim, in that case I will miss you. I did not object to your calling out what you see as a piece of disinformation. I objected to you calling it out and calling it out and calling it out...
I wish you luck in finding a forum that meets your criteria. But if you do, I fear you will just be preaching to the choir.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #113 on: June 11, 2019, 04:07:59 PM »
Tim, bear in mind most of us are intelligent enough to see through false arguments and cherry picking and all that. The fact that someone posts something doesn't make it automatically accepted by the whole forum, especially if that someone is known to have a bias in a certain direction. Also bear in mind some people will always have the last word and will never admit to being wrong, having a back and forth argument is detrimental to the forum and increasing the influence of the very posts you want to prevent.
The best tactic is hit and run. Refute once, and let the readers make up their mind.
If you can't abide reading posts you think are wrong and/or misleading, it's an easy thing to add someone to your blocked list. Otherwise, deep breaths and calming exercises can do a lot of good. If you catch someone posting straight denier stuff, report to Neven and it's bye-bye and sigh of relief. This is how "Daniel B." went away.
I wish you'd stay. But if you'd rather be in a pure environment, maybe indeed this is not the place.

P-maker

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #114 on: June 11, 2019, 05:04:46 PM »
It takes some garbage to recycle good ideas ;o)

magnamentis

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #115 on: June 11, 2019, 07:23:04 PM »

It is my understanding the two hurricanes that hit Mozambique this year were unprecedented, I am also pretty sure that in February we had the first ever category 5 hurricane that formed (in the Pacific) that early north of the equator. 

The only difference between a hurricane and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs.

In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 07:34:04 PM by magnamentis »

sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #116 on: June 12, 2019, 02:20:11 AM »
Preprint from Knutson et al on tropical cyclone activity and anthro climate change, focussing on twin goals of reducing "Type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection)" and reducing " Type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection)"

It's a nice review article among other things.

"Summary ...

"Using the conventional perspective of avoiding Type I error, the strongest case for a detectable change in TC activity is the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the northwest Pacific basin, with eight of 11 authors rating the observed change as low-to- medium confidence for detection (with one other author having medium and two other authors having medium-to-high confidence). A slight majority of authors (six of 11) had only low confidence that anthropogenic forcing had contributed to the poleward shift. The majority of the author team also had only low confidence that any other observed TC changes represented either detectable changes or attributable anthropogenic changes. From the perspective of reducing Type II errors, a majority of the author team agreed on a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence) but which may be indicators of emerging anthropogenic signals in the data. Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:

i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.

In addition, a majority of authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection) on:
vi) the unusually active TC season in the western North Pacific in 2015. Author opinion was divided but a slight majority concluded that:
vii) unusually high TC frequency near Hawaii in 2014 was a case where the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection).

Finally, most authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests:

viii) detectable (but not attributable) decreases in severe landfalling TC frequency in eastern Australia since the late 1800s; and
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."

I attach Fig 1f-Fig 1j

Read the whole thing:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

ATTP has some discussion

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/extreme-weather-event-attribution/#comments

sidd

Rod

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #117 on: June 12, 2019, 02:28:37 AM »

It is my understanding the two hurricanes that hit Mozambique this year were unprecedented, I am also pretty sure that in February we had the first ever category 5 hurricane that formed (in the Pacific) that early north of the equator. 

The only difference between a hurricane and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs.

In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html

Thank you Mag, I miss spoke because I live in the USA and I'm use to calling them hurricanes. 

However, the point of my comment was that these seem to be some petty important storms that are relevant to this discussion.   There is more to "hurricane" season than just the Atlantic. 

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #118 on: June 12, 2019, 03:53:54 AM »

iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."


Sigh. Sadly, even as the paper confirms our fears that hurricanes are getting worse the references they use are outdated already. Most of the authors in quoted papers miss the latest years, that also happen to be the worst.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #119 on: June 12, 2019, 04:32:04 AM »
Preprint from Knutson et al on tropical cyclone activity and anthro climate change, focussing on twin goals of reducing "Type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection)" and reducing " Type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection)"

It's a nice review article among other things.

"Summary ...

"Using the conventional perspective of avoiding Type I error, the strongest case for a detectable change in TC activity is the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the northwest Pacific basin, with eight of 11 authors rating the observed change as low-to- medium confidence for detection (with one other author having medium and two other authors having medium-to-high confidence). A slight majority of authors (six of 11) had only low confidence that anthropogenic forcing had contributed to the poleward shift. The majority of the author team also had only low confidence that any other observed TC changes represented either detectable changes or attributable anthropogenic changes. From the perspective of reducing Type II errors, a majority of the author team agreed on a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence) but which may be indicators of emerging anthropogenic signals in the data. Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:

i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.

In addition, a majority of authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection) on:
vi) the unusually active TC season in the western North Pacific in 2015. Author opinion was divided but a slight majority concluded that:
vii) unusually high TC frequency near Hawaii in 2014 was a case where the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection).

Finally, most authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests:

viii) detectable (but not attributable) decreases in severe landfalling TC frequency in eastern Australia since the late 1800s; and
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."

I attach Fig 1f-Fig 1j

Read the whole thing:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

ATTP has some discussion

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/extreme-weather-event-attribution/#comments

sidd

Funny, someone took me to task for referencing this paper just recently.

sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #120 on: June 12, 2019, 07:07:35 AM »
What strikes me in the data presented is that globally cyclones have no change in maximum intensity thru late 2000s. There is a significant increasing signal in the north atlantic, and perhaps a barely detectable signal in S. Indian.  Marginal decrease in E. Pacific. Agreed that the data needs updated, the grafs in Fig 1f  dont go past late 2000's.

As to more current data, grafs 1g-1j go thru latish 2010s, there is a significant change in latitude of max intensity and a significant decrease in propagation speed. No change in total number/yr or total landfalls.

Another thing that strikes me is that the authors are unwilling to state that there is detectable anthro contribution (to the level of Type 1 error) except for increasing latitude of max intensity. They are willing to state more in the context of Type II error, but feel it necessary to include the caveat "we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms."

sidd
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 07:15:10 AM by sidd »

sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #121 on: June 12, 2019, 07:56:46 AM »
Re: storm surge and precipitation:

"Regarding storm surge, our expectation is that a widespread worsening of total inundation levels during storms is occurring due to the global mean sea level rise associated with anthropogenic warming, assuming all other factors equal, although we note that no TC climate change signal has been convincingly detected in sea level extremes data. To date, there is not convincing evidence of a detectable anthropogenic influence on hurricane precipitation rates, in contrast to the case for extreme precipitation in general, where some anthropogenic influence has been detected."

That last sentence is interesting. I suppose there are not enuf hurricanes to detect change in extreme precip during hurricanes, altho the evidence for extreme precipitation from all sources (non hurricanes included) is much more robust. The effects of extreme precip are also worsening, due to the fact that non permeable surface area keeps going up due to development.

About a decade ago i saw an estimate in Eos that impermeable surface in the USA was around the size of Ohio. On the other hand, zoning laws requiring retention ponds and permeable surface are becoming much more widespread. My builder acquaintances bitch about that all the time, but even they recognize the need. They get flooded out too.  Unfortunately there requirements are changing far too slowly.

Given sea level rise, it is quite obvious that storm surge from landfalling systems is going to get worse and worse, as they state, even tho the number of hurricanes is too low to detect this effect robustly.

sidd

kinbote

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #122 on: June 12, 2019, 08:49:21 AM »
What strikes me in the data presented is that globally cyclones have no change in maximum intensity thru late 2000s. There is a significant increasing signal in the north atlantic, and perhaps a barely detectable signal in S. Indian.  Marginal decrease in E. Pacific. Agreed that the data needs updated, the grafs in Fig 1f  dont go past late 2000's.

sidd

I think it's important to convey, as the authors tell us over and over again, their purpose here is to examine anthropogenic influence from the Type I error perspective, testing against a null hypothesis, where influences must rise to a statistically significant level that eliminates any possible natural or cyclic interference. From a scientific perspective this is obviously important, nevertheless, the authors state:

"We are motivated in this report both by the desire to improve scientific understanding and to provide useful guidance to those who need to deal with future risk.  Adopting only the Type I perspective has substantial potential for missing anthropogenic influences that are present but have not yet emerged or been identified to a high level of confidence." (pg. 7)

The approach the authors are taking is to review various studies in a category, for example,  "Case Study: Trends in global TC intensity," and then the authors conclude by voting if they agree those findings meet the thresholds for rejecting the null hypothesis of meeting the .05 significance level. What those determining factors are they use to define that threshold wasn't clear to me.

Regarding your point about 'no change in maximum intensity thru late 2000s,' I read it differently. Especially, as the authors, and I repeat myself and them again, tell us, their threshold is for Type I error null hypothesis testing, nevertheless, the authors state:

"Despite this lack of robust climate change detection, the small observed increasing trend in global intensity (e.g., Kossin et al. 2013) is generally consistent with expectations of increasing TC intensity with global warming from potential intensity theory(e.g.., Sobel et a. 2016) and high resolution models(Knutson et al. 2010), pointing to a possibly emerging anthropogenic signal."
<snip>
"From the perspective of avoiding Type I errors, we conclude that there is only low confidence in detection and attribution of any anthropogenic influence on historical TC intensityin any basin or globally. However, from the perspective of reducing Type II errors, ten of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a detectable increase in the global average intensity of the strongest (hurricane-strength) TCs since the early 1980s,while one author believes that at least half of half of the observed increase is due to improving observations during the period.  Eight of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increase in global average TC intensity, while the other three authors were not convinced that an anthropogenic contribution has been demonstrated to a balance of evidence level using appropriate attribution methodologies." (pg 17-18)

Circling back to the first quote, the paragraph before it sums it up nicely, at least for me anyway. We may not have absolute scientific, null-hypothesis-rejecting, proof of anthropogenic impacts on TC, but we'd be fools to not see what is going on in front of our eyes.

"As discussed by Lloyd and Oreskes, whether a Type I or Type II error is more important to avoid is context-and audience-dependent.  If the goal is to advance scientific understanding, an emphasis on avoiding Type I errors seems logical.  However, for future planning and risk assessment, one may want to reduce Type II errors in particular.  For example, planners for infrastructure development in coastal regions may want to consider emerging detection/attribution findings--even if not at the 0.05 significance level--in their planning and decision-making." (pg. 7)

jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #123 on: June 12, 2019, 06:46:57 PM »
VAYU

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/cyclone-vayu-to-intensify-as-very-severe-cyclone/article27823219.ece

The India Met Department (IMD) has ramped up the expected top wind speed of the very severe cyclone Vayu from 145-155 km/hr to 170-180 km/hr at the time of landfall.

After crossing the Porbandar-Veraval stretch in Gujarat, the system is likely to move along and parallel to the Saurashtra & Kutch coasts with its band of forceful winds and heavy rain lashing the districts from Amreli to Kutch.
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ivica

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #124 on: June 12, 2019, 06:56:56 PM »
To add to jai's Vayu post:

https://watchers.news/2019/06/12/300-000-evacuating-ahead-of-tropical-cyclone-vayu-the-strongest-since-1998-to-hit-nw-india/
"
    * Tropical cyclones of this strength are rare for the region.
    * If the forecast verifies, this will be the strongest tropical cyclone to hit NW India since June 9, 1998, when 10 000 people lost their lives.
"

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #125 on: June 13, 2019, 12:40:31 AM »
Cyclone Vayu Poised to Hit India as Year's Second Major Storm
https://www.meteo974.re/Arabian-Sea-TC-VAYU-02A-now-a-category-2-US-intensifying-gradually-approaching-Porbandar-Gujarat_a919.html


TC VAYU(02A) IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE WITH TOP GUSTS APPROACHING 200KM/H NEAR THE CENTER.

The India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday that Cyclone Vayu was due to hit the Gujarat coast early on Thursday with winds gusting up to 170km an hour.

The warm waters of the Arabian Sea will continue to allow Vayu to gradually strengthen before making possible landfall, potentially making the cyclone the equivalent strength of a Category 2 hurricane. https://www.seatemperature.org/indian-ocean

... One unusual knock-on effect from the approaching storm will be the increasing temperatures for southeastern Pakistan.

The counter-clockwise circulation will mean an easterly flow over the region, allowing much hotter and drier air to move over the area. Temperatures for Karachi could reach as high as 40C in coming days, 11 degrees above its normal average.


... Gujarat is home to large refineries and sea ports that lie near the storm’s path, officials said.

India's Sikka Ports and Terminals Ltd, which handles crude oil and refined products for Reliance Industries Ltd, closed berthing of vessels at its western Indian port on Wednesday due to a cyclone warning, according to a port notice and a shipping industry source.

India's biggest oil refinery, owned by Reliance Industries, is also based in Gujarat. A Reliance executive on Tuesday said the cyclone is expected to weaken by the time it reaches the Jamnagar-based refinery.

Sikka ports also handle oil and refined products cargo for Bharat Oman Refineries Ltd, a subsidiary of Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/cyclone-vayu-threatens-india-pakistan-190611090703282.html

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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #126 on: June 13, 2019, 02:04:17 PM »
Fortunately for the residents of Gujarat, this category 2 cyclone has veered westward, away from the coast, sparing many from the worst of the storm.

bligh8

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #127 on: June 14, 2019, 07:37:34 PM »
NOAA’s New Global Model: How Does It Handle Tropical Cyclones?

Bob Henson  ·  June 14, 2019, 12:33 PM EDT

"A major upgrade to the global workhorse in NOAA’s suite of numerical weather prediction models become official on Wednesday. The Global Forecast System (GFS) has switched to a new dynamical core for the guidance it generates, which extends out to 16 days (384 hours) and is updated every 6 hours. Tests show that the new finite-volume cubed-sphere dynamical core (FV3)—which has been running in test mode since last year—will bring a number of improvements to prediction of various weather features, including tropical cyclones.
“This is a major milestone in our ongoing effort to deliver the very best forecast products and services to the nation,” said acting NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs in a press briefing on Wednesday."

Figure 1. Rather than narrowing at a point, as traditional model grids do at the North and South poles, the FV3 finite-volume cubed-sphere grid converges onto a inlaid higher-resolution grid that can be located as desired on the globe. In the example shown here, the higher-resolution grid is positioned to include Hurricane Sandy while it was near the Bahamas in October 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Improved intensity forecasts. Forecasters have struggled to make consistent improvements in predicting hurricane intensity, which hinges on small-scale features that are difficult for models to reproduce (especially global models). The first version of FV3 showed only marginal changes in predicting the peak winds of a tropical cyclone, but the update now in use shows error reductions in the Atlantic of 2-4 knots at most time periods (see Figure 2 above).
Much of this improvement appears to stem from a more accurate depiction of central pressure. The previous version of the GFS was known for overdeepening the most intense storms, resulting in implausibly deep cyclones with unrealistically weak winds.
“The new FV3 simulations are much closer to the best track wind-pressure relationship, likely a result of improved numerics and physics in the current FV3 model,” said Philippe Papin, a postdoctoral researcher at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory who specializes in tropical cyclones. “I don't think we will see as many sub 900-hPa tropical cyclones associated with less-than-120-kt winds that were common in the old GFS runs.”

More within the open access paper

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #128 on: July 03, 2019, 07:21:54 AM »
Hurricane BARBARA.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #129 on: July 03, 2019, 01:43:35 PM »
Hurricane BARBARA.
Thanks for the "heads up."  It's in the eastern north pacific, between Mexico and Hawaii, heading towards (roughly) Hawaii.  It's predicted to fizzle out before reaching Hawaii.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083706.shtml?cone#contents

We'll surely see more ominous systems in the coming weeks/months.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #130 on: July 03, 2019, 02:32:20 PM »
One thing rather special about Hurricane Barbara was 
Quote
Barbara vaulted from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds in just 18.5 hours, as confirmed in a special update issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [Tuesday morning].
(Weather Underground)

I understand the NOAA forecasters were not expecting this rapid intensification (RI).  RI seems to be happening more often in recent years - Global Warming, per chance?  [/sarc].
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aperson

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #131 on: July 03, 2019, 06:24:53 PM »
One thing rather special about Hurricane Barbara was 
Quote
Barbara vaulted from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds in just 18.5 hours, as confirmed in a special update issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [Tuesday morning].
(Weather Underground)

I understand the NOAA forecasters were not expecting this rapid intensification (RI).  RI seems to be happening more often in recent years - Global Warming, per chance?  [/sarc].

SHIPS - an intensity forecasting model and one of the primary intensity forecasting tools used by the NHC - was showing heightened chances of RI well in advance. Here's a post from a tropical cyclone tracking forum on Sunday showing very high chances of 48/72hr RI relative to climatological averages from SHIPS output: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2744612#p2744612

Quote
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  41% is   6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  46% is   9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
computer janitor by trade

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #132 on: July 03, 2019, 06:41:55 PM »
Thanks for the correction, Aperson.  (I was going off a comment I read on the Cat 6 thread - frequently dangerous!)
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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #133 on: July 06, 2019, 06:43:18 PM »
Quote
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 7/6/19, 9:14 AM
The ECMWF hires model continues to illustrate a possible tropical threat next week over the Gulf of Mexico. The model is still not locked onto where this disturbance will develop as shown by the d(prog)/dt analysis here. The American and Canadian models do not show development.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1147494061361618945
Worst-looking image is below. Gif of the evolving forecast at the link.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #134 on: July 06, 2019, 08:46:20 PM »
On their radar screen:
From NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and
northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.
Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.




-----------------------

Looks like it will be windy for Tor  :(
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Rod

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #135 on: July 06, 2019, 09:34:12 PM »
If this actually develops as predicted, then these comments should probably be moved to the Weird Weather thread. 🤔

Rod

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #136 on: July 06, 2019, 10:04:58 PM »
I just noticed that the NWS forecast post by Vox indicates the probability of formation is low. 

However, there are a lot of weather forecasters still posting model runs indicating a tropical cyclone might form from a low pressure system in the Midwest.   If that happens, it would certainly be “unique.”   Maybe it has happened before, but I don’t ever remember seeing anything like that. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #137 on: July 07, 2019, 03:46:25 AM »
We had 2.25 inches, I mean 57 mm, of rain today. Related to that tropical disturbance? I don't know.  Because of trees, we basically don't notice if there is wind 'up there' unless it's pretty intense and a Tropical Storm seldom counts by the time it gets here from the coast. 

By the way, that forecast included "as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico", so any wind will be felt in Louisiana, rather than Florida.
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bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #138 on: July 09, 2019, 08:23:02 PM »
This could be a knockout blow for New Orleans.


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #139 on: July 09, 2019, 08:37:41 PM »
NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) is vulnerable, but not that vulnerable!  :)
Most forecasting currently has future Barry attaining only Tropical Storm force winds, if that.  Ture, a foot of rain, I mean 300 mm of rain, will make the place damp, but they have pumps for that.
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bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #140 on: July 09, 2019, 08:43:29 PM »
NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana) is vulnerable, but not that vulnerable!  :)
Most forecasting currently has future Barry attaining only Tropical Storm force winds, if that.  Ture, a foot of rain, I mean 300 mm of rain, will make the place damp, but they have pumps for that.

Usually, yes you would be correct. But there are threads on Twitter explaining why now is a very bad time. The Mississippi River is at its highest-ever level for this time of year (16'). When Katrina came in it was at 2 or 3' (or something LOW).

https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1148295744799088642?

Due to the unprecedented background level, we only have 3-4' of leeway before the levees would be overtopped. The rain would be bad for river flooding, but that is the lesser concern here for New Orleans specifically, which is in a uniquely unprecedented and possibly terrible situation due to the enhanced background flooding ongoing.

12z modeling would indicate 3-4' is well within the realm of possibilities BTW. For maximum surge we would need the storm to track to the west of the city which all modeling is agreeing upon for now.

Gustav hit as a 2 in western LA and produced a 7' surge in NOLA. This may be a decent analog for now in terms of possible surge impacts. And it would double the amount necessary for a critical blow.



FWIW, if we had a 7' surge on top of forecast river levels, the MS would top 23' at NoLA. The records are all at 21' from the 1920s. It would be catastrophically horrible.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 08:53:34 PM by bbr2314 »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #141 on: July 09, 2019, 08:57:46 PM »
Not to worry.

We know how well the efficient and trustworthy public administration of New Orleans and Louisiana fixed up the joint after Katrina, and that they are fully prepared to deal with all future emergencies.

And of course, with Trump in overall control, FEMA is ready to leap into action if required.
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bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #142 on: July 09, 2019, 09:02:50 PM »
12z EURO is BAD


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #143 on: July 09, 2019, 09:21:12 PM »
Thanks, I knew the river was up, but forgot about storm surge.  And although no model has suggested more than a week Category 1 hurricane, plenty of folks posting on Weather Underground's Category 6 blog worry about rapid intensification (RI) that has surprised the experts a couple times recently, so a Cat 2 storm could be a possibility.
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bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #144 on: July 09, 2019, 09:23:32 PM »
Thanks, I knew the river was up, but forgot about storm surge.  And although no model has suggested more than a week Category 1 hurricane, plenty of folks posting on Weather Underground's Category 6 blog worry about rapid intensification (RI) that has surprised the experts a couple times recently, so a Cat 2 storm could be a possibility.
Indeed. I think we would need a central pressure of under 990MB for surge to overtop the levees, which is actually not that low and probably higher than the central pressure will end up verifying (IMO). I could see a Cat 2 on the high end but I think a strong TS or weak 1 is most likely.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #145 on: July 09, 2019, 09:51:16 PM »
The water temperature along the gulf coast from mid peninsula (FL) to New Orleans is 30-31C. Warmest water in the region.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #146 on: July 09, 2019, 10:05:34 PM »
From the dumb questions department: doesn't the high river water serve as a sort of barrier against the incoming storm surge? It doesn't seem right to add the 16' of the river and the 5' of the surge and conclude the levees will be overtopped.

bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #147 on: July 09, 2019, 10:07:42 PM »
From the dumb questions department: doesn't the high river water serve as a sort of barrier against the incoming storm surge? It doesn't seem right to add the 16' of the river and the 5' of the surge and conclude the levees will be overtopped.
A good question. We may find out in a few days!

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #148 on: July 09, 2019, 10:16:58 PM »
The incoming storm surge should push against the outflowing waters blocking them so they will go higher and then you can add whatever rain falls.

Rivers also communicate with the local water table so if there are any much lower areas in NO they might get wet.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #149 on: July 09, 2019, 11:02:54 PM »
Isn't a storm surge a product of a drop in surface air pressure lifting sea level, combined with wind action pushing water on-shore?

Not much anyone can do about an ocean coming ashore?
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