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J Cartmill

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #151 on: July 10, 2019, 12:52:56 AM »
I'd be far more concerned about the rain than any storm surge. What is the track for this storm? if it is slow moving they are screwed.

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #152 on: July 10, 2019, 02:37:39 AM »
Thanks for the Jeff Masters link.

J Cartmill

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #153 on: July 10, 2019, 03:12:37 AM »
This could be a real mess for New Orleans. The GFS has 20+ inches (500 mm) of rain forecast. The river is projected to go close to the top of the levee. The Bonne Carre spillway is still open sending water into Lake Pontchartrain.

tropicaltidbits.com Video updates during tropical events and lots of models and data.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane Jeff Masters usually posts a daily update.

https://www.nola.com/news/weather/article_47445066-a28a-11e9-8d9f-876b05ca99d0.html article discussing 92L impacts from New Orleans newspaper.

MrGreeny

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #154 on: July 10, 2019, 07:13:59 AM »
92L just near Panama City.

Afaik I have never seen such a thing in this area before, and that close to the coast.

That makes wonder if more of these will pop up near the coast this year or if it was a one off thing but it may definitely happen again in the near future.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 07:19:38 AM by MrGreeny »

dnem

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #155 on: July 10, 2019, 05:25:32 PM »
NHC now has a tropical cyclone peaking at 85 mph prior to landfall.  Who wants to bet that peak intensity exceeds this forecast?

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #156 on: July 10, 2019, 06:22:01 PM »
NHC now has a tropical cyclone peaking at 85 mph prior to landfall.  Who wants to bet that peak intensity exceeds this forecast?
With the paragraph in the NHC guidance below, no bets from me.
A lot of rain.
A bit more of the Louisiana boot falls into the Gulf?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/101457.shtml?
Quote
By 48 hours and beyond, however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification
,
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #157 on: July 10, 2019, 07:00:01 PM »
New Orleans already got 7 inches of rain today. And this will continue until early next week. https://www.nola.com/news/article_e7cd222a-a329-11e9-8b2d-ab8749f9d28a.html

bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #158 on: July 10, 2019, 07:30:15 PM »
MS River now forecast to reach 20'... oh boy...

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/1148971892130422784?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #159 on: July 10, 2019, 08:06:53 PM »
Parts of New Orleans Are Flooded. Worse Is on the Way.
A brewing storm surge could elevate the Mississippi River to 20 feet above sea level—as high as the levees that protect the city.
Henry GrabarJuly 10, 2019 12:23 PM
Quote
There was quite a lot of water in the streets of New Orleans on Wednesday morning, thanks to intense thunderstorms that prompted the National Weather Service to issue a “Flash Flood Emergency” warning. Parts of the city received nearly a foot of rain before noon, turning neighborhoods that rarely flood into canoe routes.

Those scenes offer a preview of what’s to come later in the week, when a tropical depression is projected to turn into Hurricane Barry and make landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category 1, dropping as much as 2 feet of rain in some parts of the state.

New Orleans has long had a problem with rainfall flooding, since much of the city sits just above sea level, and a good part of it sits below. Enormous pumps were a big part of the city’s $14.6 billion storm protection upgrade after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005, and their struggles are a subject of citywide scrutiny every time it rains. Topographically, New Orleans is often likened to a bowl, but it’s more like a waffle, with pockets of low ground that fill up with just a few inches of rain.

A rain forecast like Barry’s is never welcome news in New Orleans. But what makes this storm particularly ominous is that it comes at a time when the Mississippi River in New Orleans is just below flood stage, an unusual and unprecedented development this late in the year. As I wrote in June, the river—swollen by a record year of rainfall in the Midwest—has never been so high, so long. A few feet of rain and a midsized storm surge are projected to bring the river to a height it hasn’t hit in more than 90 years, reaching the top of the levees. Another foot would cause river water to crash into the neighborhoods below. Katrina hit when the river was running at 3 feet; it currently sits at 16 feet.
...
The levees top out around 20 feet; storm surge on the Mississippi is projected at 20 feet. If the forecast stands, at least some water will overtop the levees along the banks of the river.
https://slate.com/business/2019/07/new-orleans-is-flooded-in-some-neighborhoods-and-a-storm-surge-is-coming.html
Photos, tweets and a flood graph at the link.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #160 on: July 10, 2019, 11:38:08 PM »
New Orleans, 10.07.2019.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #161 on: July 11, 2019, 10:10:36 AM »
Latest from NHC.NOAA.gov
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Rich

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #162 on: July 11, 2019, 11:19:40 AM »
Barry is percolating in 30C water right now. The warmest water in the Gulf is S. of Louisiana at 31C+ with a small pocket above 32C !

They better hope this storm doesn't linger before it arrives inland. That's a shitload of heat to support rapid intensification.

Burnrate

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #163 on: July 11, 2019, 05:45:41 PM »
...

They better hope this storm doesn't linger before it arrives inland. That's a shitload of heat to support rapid intensification.

I remember when Harvey was coming in and the forecast changed from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in less than 2 days before it made landfall.  You had almost 3 days of warning a storm was coming but it intensified so rapidly we almost didn't have time to get supplies for the flooding (thinking it was just going to be a small storm).

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #164 on: July 11, 2019, 08:36:48 PM »
Latest from NHC.NOAA.GOV
WTNT42 KNHC 111453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle.  The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center.  In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4.  Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h.  This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward.  However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance.  The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast.  The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east.  It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast.  Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. 
Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend.  The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.8N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 27.8N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 28.1N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 28.6N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 29.4N  91.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 32.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/1200Z 34.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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wdmn

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #165 on: July 12, 2019, 06:50:01 AM »
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn
toward the north on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #166 on: July 12, 2019, 12:55:09 PM »
The Big Easy & Louisiana
Read all about it at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083731.shtml?rainqpf#contents

Looks like as far as wind and storm surge are concerned, bad, but not as bad as could have been.

But rainfall..... a slow moving system is the worst scenario.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #167 on: July 12, 2019, 01:55:43 PM »
Thanks for the updates.

Who needs storm surge when you get 2 feet of rain? The surge falls from the sky. 

Gonna be very, very ugly in LA.

wdmn

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #168 on: July 12, 2019, 05:32:03 PM »
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday.  After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.


Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast.
  Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass
of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of
54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Rich

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #169 on: July 13, 2019, 09:25:54 AM »
Barry's forward motion has slowed to 3MPH.

A little extra time in that 31C water to strengthen into the first landfall hurricane of 2019.

Epic flooding to follow.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #170 on: July 13, 2019, 09:29:24 AM »
:-[

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #171 on: July 13, 2019, 01:20:54 PM »
NHC.NOAA.GOV say they still expect it to make it to hurricane 1 force by landfall today.

Vast quantities of reports on this event except for perhaps the one greatest long-term threat. The levees of the lower Mississippi River are under threat which in turn is a threat to one of the USA's major transportation routes.

The powers that be in Louisiana say that while the Levees may be overtopped, i.e. flood, they will not break. I, for one, felt a tad too much complacency in these remarks. And on the immediate aftermath, just one report (which I've lost) commenting on how due to the multitude of demands on their services over the last year, FEMA's budget is just about bust. They have a reduced work-force.

The graphics say it all, really, on the sheer scale of this weather event affecting a river at record levels for the time of year (the wettest 12 months in the USA's recorded history). Weather events piled upon weather events. The old one-two will do for you..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #172 on: July 13, 2019, 02:32:07 PM »
The army Corp of engineers stated that the river crested earlier today at just below 17 feet, due to the storm surge.  Below the original forecast of 20.  The levees have held - so far

Rich

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #173 on: July 13, 2019, 03:33:48 PM »
 Max sustained winds up to 70MPH. Forward speed 5 MPH. Next report should include input from the hurricane hunters.

Rain forecast diminished somewhat.

Barry taking his time to cross land. He wants that hurricane status.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #174 on: July 13, 2019, 04:20:21 PM »
Kimberly Nesmith (@KimANesmith) 7/12/19, 8:14 PM
Mississippi River from Algiers Point in NOLA [New Orleans, Louisiana]. That's normally a grassy, open field where the trees are in the water. Not abnormal for the water to get this high at times, but never been this high for this long. #TropicalStormBarry #NewOrleans
https://twitter.com/kimanesmith/status/1149834457362456577
Image at the link.

——-
NWS WPC (@NWSWPC) 7/10/19, 8:11 PM
When a new tropical system is about to be advised upon by @NWSNHC, an internal conference call is held to inform/coordinate the message within @NWS prior to the issuance of NHC products. That way, we can speak with one voice as the information becomes available to the public.
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1149108856473022469
Photo at the link.  Irony: some folks at the conference could not get back to their hotel because of street flooding in NOLA.
- Pictured are a mix of forecasters, development/technical meteorologists, and management from the Weather Prediction Center, along with visiting forecasters in town this week for the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment.

——-
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 7/12/19, 6:09 PM
Memphis could get 10 inches of rain from TS #Barry. That's more than two months worth in two days.
Folks, this is NOT just a Louisiana storm. This is going to be a widespread flooding emergency for a lot of people well inland.   twitter.com/breakingweathe…
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1149803024069644288
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Rich

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #175 on: July 13, 2019, 04:28:28 PM »
Nothing official yet, but we may have landfall near Intracoastal City.

prokaryotes

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #176 on: July 13, 2019, 05:12:12 PM »
Barry was just upgraded to Hurricane status. https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1150059448829972480

Is there potential for stalling, and at what point is a storm considered to stall?

Quote
NAM 3KM has Barry staying off land for at least the next 24 hours. This model was pretty accurate in terms of track for this system
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barry-Churns-Near-Louisiana-Coast-Massive-Rains-Still-Expected#comment-4538153747
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 05:18:07 PM by prokaryotes »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #177 on: July 13, 2019, 05:19:37 PM »


Louisiana Highway 1 is underwater this morning

The Lafourche Parish Sheriff's Office shared a video showing Louisiana Highway 1 underwater this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/LafourcheSO/videos/636003750251242/

AccuWeather predicts the total damage from Barry will be $8 to $10 billion
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-the-total-damage-from-barry-will-be-8-to-10-billion/70008801

... The estimate includes damage to homes and businesses, as well as their contents and cars, as well as job and wage losses, farm and crop losses, contamination of drinking water wells, infrastructure damage, auxiliary business losses and the long-term impact from flooding, in addition to the lingering health effects resulting from flooding and the disease caused by standing water.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 05:31:22 PM by vox_mundi »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #178 on: July 13, 2019, 05:33:40 PM »
The army Corp of engineers stated that the river crested earlier today at just below 17 feet, due to the storm surge.  Below the original forecast of 20.  The levees have held - so far
I think there was also talk about the levees further up river that will get the effect of a load of water coming down in two or thre days time, i.e. not all about the storm surge in the lower reaches.

Maybe I was wrong about that.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Pragma

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #179 on: July 13, 2019, 05:47:46 PM »
A couple of observations, as others may have mentioned.

The rapid development of the storm/hurricane and the stalling, potentially drenching areas for days, is very reminiscent of Hurricane Harvey. Are we seeing the start of a trend?

According the the NOAA/NHC site, the path of maximum rainfall seems to be using the Mississippi river as a roadmap all the way up to Tennessee. This can not be a good sign. It will be putting the maximum amount of rainfall into the river with minimum delay or absorption.

prokaryotes

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #180 on: July 13, 2019, 05:59:38 PM »
According the the NOAA/NHC site, the path of maximum rainfall seems to be using the Mississippi river as a roadmap all the way up to Tennessee.

And Barry formed originally there, mentioned here https://youtu.be/RuNGJsFtv-U?t=216
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Rod

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #181 on: July 13, 2019, 06:37:11 PM »
The Mississippi has breached the levee in Myrtle Grove, LA, a little bit south of New Orleans. 

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #183 on: July 13, 2019, 07:32:46 PM »
The heavy rains are SE of the storm center. Just starting to reach the coast.

The Mayor of Morgan City said their pump system could handle 5" of rain + an additional 1" per hour.

They're going over that today.

prokaryotes

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #184 on: July 13, 2019, 07:42:55 PM »
Quote
Barry's center is meandering along the Louisiana coast near 29.7N/92W.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1150088671791476736
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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #186 on: July 13, 2019, 10:52:06 PM »
Barry via RAMMB-SLIDER Airmass

(Click to play)