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Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #500 on: September 10, 2019, 08:03:35 AM »
Nothing coming out of NOAA or any other government agency can be trusted while Trump remains in office.

Word. Republicans are not fit to be scientists or managing science.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #501 on: September 10, 2019, 08:09:04 AM »
Deliberate gaffe to obfuscate from rational climate debate.

Same thing with Greenland.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #502 on: September 11, 2019, 02:15:38 AM »
Yes, it’s a joke.  (Sad to say I have to say that.)

Trump Signs Executive Order Giving Him Control of Weather
Andy Borowitz
Quote
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In what some congressional Democrats are calling a flagrant example of Presidential overreach, Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order giving him total control of the weather.

Under the terms of the order, Trump would assume the unilateral power to create all meteorological conditions, including but not limited to hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, hail, sleet, and wintry mix.

After signing the order, a beaming Trump pronounced “total victory” over the weather, which he called “the enemy of the people.” ...
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-signs-executive-order-giving-him-control-of-weather
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #503 on: September 11, 2019, 02:25:55 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #504 on: September 11, 2019, 09:04:58 PM »
Trump Warns That Bahamian Hurricane Refugees Could Be ‘Gang Members’
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-refugees-denied-entry-united-states-881612/
Quote
Hurricane Dorian may not have hit the U.S. East Coast as hard as many feared, but it decimated the Bahamas, leaving tens of thousands homeless. On Sunday, over 100 of the displaced were instructed to disembark a rescue ferry bound for Florida because they didn’t possess U.S. visas. Customs and Border Protection has been unable to offer an adequate explanation for why this happened, as visas are not required for Bahamians traveling to the U.S.

When asked about the incident on Monday, President Trump said the U.S. needs to be careful about allowing Bahamians into the country following Hurricane Dorian. “I don’t want to allow people that weren’t supposed to be [in the Bahamas],” he said, adding that among the refugees could be “very bad people and some very bad gang members and some very very bad drug dealers.”
and
The plight of Hurricane Dorian evacuees offers a frightening vision of 'climate apartheid'
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/has-hurricane-dorian-sparked-climate-apartheid
Quote
Like most things Trump says, this statement is very, very removed from reality. But who needs facts when you can appeal to racist feelings? Trump’s smearing of Hurricane Dorian survivors builds on his tried-and-tested strategy of dehumanising non-white people by describing them as “bad hombres,” rapists and MS-13 gang members. It builds on his strategy of describing any non-white person seeking refuge in America as a threat to the country.

Trump’s comments, it should be noted, were prompted by a question about an incident on Sunday in which 119 Bahamian evacuees, including children, were told to get off a ferry bound for Florida because they didn’t have US visas. This came as a shock because Bahamians don’t need visas to visit America if they don’t have a police record and plan a short stay. According to an American reporter on the ferry, the evacuees he spoke to didn’t plan to move to the US, “They were coming to go grocery shopping, stay in a hotel with AC [air conditioning], chill for a little and then head back.”

26 feet of water: What the worst-case hurricane scenario looks like for Tampa Bay
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/9/11/18485563/hurricane-florida-climate-change-tampa
Quote
It’s become a haunting question of when, not if, a big hurricane will return. Residents surrounding Tampa Bay have been spared the worst-case hurricane scenario many times before. Now, there’s so much more to lose. And sometime soon, we don’t know when, the worst-case scenario will arrive: a Category 5 hurricane, with winds in excess of 160 mph.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 09:44:07 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #505 on: September 12, 2019, 12:11:50 AM »
Trump Demanded Retraction After NWS Disputed His False Hurricane Claim
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/white-house-told-noaa-to-back-trumps-false-hurricane-forecast/

The White House pressured the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration into backing President Trump over weather forecasters who disputed Trump's incorrect claim that Hurricane Dorian would likely strike Alabama, according to news reports.

"Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, told Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, to have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration publicly disavow the forecasters' position that Alabama was not at risk," the New York Times reported today, citing anonymous sources. Ross then warned NOAA "that top employees at the agency could be fired if the situation was not addressed," the Times wrote.

Mulvaney took this action after "President Trump told his staff that the [NOAA] needed to correct a tweet that seemed to contradict his statement that Hurricane Dorian posed a significant threat to Alabama as of Sept. 1," the Washington Post wrote in an article on the same topic. There are now multiple investigations into whether the NOAA's scientific integrity and independence were undermined.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #506 on: September 12, 2019, 12:29:05 AM »
Hurricane Dorian: Bahamas Lists 2,500 People as Missing
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49666942

Bahamas emergency services have listed 2,500 people as missing after Hurricane Dorian struck the islands last week.

This official count suggests the death toll will be much higher than the current 50, though the number of missing has yet to be checked against those in shelters and should fall.

Tens of thousands of people remain in need of aid.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #507 on: September 12, 2019, 02:58:44 PM »
Oil Spill Adds to Dorian Woes in Bahamas
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-oil-dorian-induced-woes-bahamas.html

After sowing mass destruction across the island, Hurricane Dorian delivered one final blow: an oil spill at the Norwegian Equinor facility.

The spill occurred at Equinor's South Riding Point terminal, which has a storage capacity of 6.75 million barrels of crude and condensate.

According to Equinor, the tanks were storing 1.8 million barrels when the hurricane hit.

... Six kilometers (four miles) away the ground is saturated with a black, thick paste.

"They need to evacuate the whole East End or come do something," Roberts said.

At ground zero, several huge oil storage tanks are colored black by overflown oil, which has spread over a still yet to be defined section of land near the coast.

"Before the hurricane hit, nine of our 10 tanks at the terminal had aluminium domed roofs," said Equinor spokesman Erik Haaland. "Five of these roofs are now gone."

... Equinor said in a statement "there is currently no observed leakage of oil to the sea from the South Riding Point terminal."

However, it said "surveillance has identified potential product in open waters 70-80 kilometers north east of the terminal within Long Point Bight close to Little Abaco Island."

"There are also indications that the product may have impacted a section of the coastline," it said.



... "This is where most of all of our seafood comes from, from this area, from these magnificent coral reefs," he said, including deep sea fish, like red snapper, grouper and lobster.

The area's bonefish, he said, is a $7 billion industry.

Pointing to the beach, he said: "This is where they go along the shore... and spawn by the millions about three miles offshore."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #508 on: September 12, 2019, 05:09:41 PM »
The latest 2 day prognosis for the North Atlantic from the NHC:


Quote
Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #509 on: September 12, 2019, 05:36:14 PM »
Quote
... This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.

They just don't get a break.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #510 on: September 12, 2019, 09:17:03 PM »
NWS:  Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas through Friday.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #511 on: September 12, 2019, 10:59:56 PM »
Its now PTC 9, with a cone that comes so close to touching Alabama that it looks like Trump is being trolled.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204713.shtml?gm_track#contents

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #512 on: September 12, 2019, 11:23:23 PM »
Its now PTC 9, with a cone that comes so close to touching Alabama that it looks like Trump is being trolled.

Sharpie sharpening time?

Speaking of which, I've been trolling Trump myself today:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1172158138805608448

He hasn't got back to me yet!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #513 on: September 13, 2019, 09:38:25 AM »
Talking of Alabama .. it rained all night the day I left , the weather it was fine .. Oh Susanna .. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #514 on: September 13, 2019, 10:38:12 PM »
After Dorian, disease is next threat on shattered Bahamian island
http://news.trust.org/item/20190912163814-7q0wm/
Quote
Disease outbreaks could further drive up the death toll of one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record, which currently stands at 50, but which Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said he expects to significantly increase.

Some 1,300 people have been registered as missing in the storm's wake and the Bahamian Ministry of Health has requested 500 body bags, according to the PAHO.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #515 on: September 13, 2019, 11:21:10 PM »
The latest NHC forecast reveals Hurricane Humberto heading for Bermuda rather than Alabama:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #516 on: September 13, 2019, 11:29:00 PM »
Yeah, Bermuda has had some hurricanes.
I bought a book there on their hurricanes back when I had a vacation there as a kid.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #517 on: September 14, 2019, 11:46:23 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #518 on: September 14, 2019, 12:46:56 PM »
Humberto has now been named officially. His forecast track is currently drifting to the north of Bermuda. However:

Quote
On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move near or over the northwestern Bahamas today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #519 on: September 14, 2019, 02:00:40 PM »
Climate Reality: "September 1 is now a day etched into the marble of Bahamian history and Bahamian memory. But it’s also a day that should be remembered the world over: the day that our accumulated choices and our inaction against climate change swelled into a storm."
https://mobile.twitter.com/climatereality/status/1172640867066290176

Hurricane Dorian Was a Climate Injustice
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/hurricane-dorian-was-a-climate-injustice
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #520 on: September 14, 2019, 04:16:36 PM »
Things are warming up in the North Atlantic. The current 5 day outlook:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #521 on: September 16, 2019, 05:36:14 PM »
Why a warming planet may mean more Dorian-like storms
https://www.augustachronicle.com/news/20190915/why-warming-planet-may-mean-more-dorian-like-storms
Quote
But most researchers agree the conduct of these storms, including flooding rains, escalating intensities, and a swollen storm surge riding on rising seas, is consistent with what climate change models predict will happen more often as the world warms.

HotSpots H2O: In Bahamas, Lack of Toilets and Safe Water Pose Disease Risk After Dorian
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/hotspots-h2o-in-bahamas-lack-of-toilets-and-safe-water-pose-disease-risk-after-dorian/
Quote
The Bahamas are still reeling after Hurricane Dorian caused widespread destruction earlier this month. Many residents report a shortage of food and water, and health experts warn that the hardest-hit areas could face a health crisis.

Residents of the Abaco Islands, where Dorian made landfall on September 1 as a Category 5 storm, as well as those in Grand Bahama, the country’s second-most populated island, say essential supplies are running low.

“We have no food. No water. We’re abandoned here,” Shenelle Kemp, a resident of Grand Bahama, told The Guardian last week. Aid groups have been rushing to distribute food, water, water purification tablets, and medicine, but access to some areas of the islands is limited. Relief efforts were also slowed by Tropical Storm Humberto, which brought heavy rainfall over the weekend.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2019, 06:03:42 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #522 on: September 16, 2019, 10:21:16 PM »
Hurricane Humberto is now official.

Disturbance 1 is 90% over 5 days.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #523 on: September 17, 2019, 02:03:51 AM »
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane Humberto Advisory 17A: Humberto Likely to Become a Major Hurricane Within the Next Day Or So.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #524 on: September 17, 2019, 05:25:46 AM »
<snip>
Disturbance 1 is 90% over 5 days.

Hi Jim, thanks for the updates.
Could you please explain what you mean by the expression above?
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oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #525 on: September 17, 2019, 05:35:46 AM »
The NHC lists not just tropical storms but also potential systems that could develop into storms - disturbances.

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #526 on: September 17, 2019, 10:56:47 AM »
Thank you oren :)

Reading the red box text, the percentage is the chance of storm formation. Got it.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell

dnem

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #527 on: September 17, 2019, 01:12:27 PM »
There is also a disturbance off the coast of Texas that has only a 30% chance of achieving tropical storm strength before moving on shore and inland. Nonetheless, yesterday the Euro was predicting rainfall totals in the Houston area of up to 2 feet (635 mm). 

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #528 on: September 17, 2019, 04:54:16 PM »
Disturbance 1 has already become tropical depression 10, forecast to become a hurricane and currently headed towards the Bahamas of all places. I really hope the track changes.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #529 on: September 17, 2019, 06:13:54 PM »
There is also a disturbance off the coast of Texas that has only a 30% chance of achieving tropical storm strength before moving on shore and inland. Nonetheless, yesterday the Euro was predicting rainfall totals in the Houston area of up to 2 feet (635 mm). 
Chance is increasing.
1. Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning.  The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized.  If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system.  This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #530 on: September 17, 2019, 07:01:35 PM »
Disturbance 1 has already become tropical depression 10, forecast to become a hurricane and currently headed towards the Bahamas of all places. I really hope the track changes.

Latest GFS model has TD10 remaining quite weak. 
(Also, eventually turning northeast and staying well off the U.S. east coast.)
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #531 on: September 17, 2019, 07:08:36 PM »
Tropical depression Eleven has formed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #532 on: September 17, 2019, 08:36:06 PM »
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 9/17/19, 12:11 PM
A serious threat from excessive rainfall -- regardless of whether #98L becomes a TD or TS. Low-level spin & moisture has consolidated (satellite) and will move slowly the next couple days (forecast sequence) w/training/regenerating bands & clusters of torrential downpours. #txwx
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1173992862146543616
Image below; gif at the link.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #533 on: September 17, 2019, 09:36:51 PM »
Disturbance 1 has already become tropical depression 10, forecast to become a hurricane and currently headed towards the Bahamas of all places. I really hope the track changes.

Latest GFS model has TD10 remaining quite weak. 
(Also, eventually turning northeast and staying well off the U.S. east coast.)

Remember, Dorian was forecast to remain quite weak also.  That changed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #534 on: September 17, 2019, 11:05:22 PM »
From the Weather Channel:

Now Tropical Storm Imelda, history:
Mon 9/16:  Area to watch:  Invest 98L
Tues 9/17 11am CT:  upgrade to moderate chance (50%) of depression or storm
   12pm CT: NHC declares Tropical Depression Eleven
   12:45 pm CT:  NHC upgrades Eleven to Tropical Storm Imelda
   1:30pm CT:  Imelda makes landfall on Texas coast.
   4pm CT: winds 40mph, pressure 1006mb, moving N at 7mph.  Location: 30 mi west of Galveston, Texas.
The slow forward motion is expected to continue over the next 3-4 days, increasing the flood risk.  Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are possible.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2019, 11:12:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
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gandul

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #535 on: September 17, 2019, 11:23:42 PM »
Tropical depression 10 will become a hurricane.
Attached PABOTUS forecast.
(posting this stupid and lame joke, one gets the real dimension of the narcissistic-in-chief. It’s being really hard for me to post this joke)
No me lo trago

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #536 on: September 18, 2019, 01:50:24 AM »
Attached PABOTUS forecast.

Unfortunately it's no joke. See my comments on the latest article from Skeptical Science:

https://skepticalscience.com/trollbots-swarm-twitter-attack-climate-science-ahead-of-un.html

With a hat tip to blumenkraft:

Quote
Here is the first overview paper we'll be referencing in our forthcoming in depth investigation of "Trump as Trollbot":

https://www.salon.com/2019/09/17/donald-trump-king-of-chaos-new-research-on-right-wing-psychology-points-toward-big-trouble-ahead/

Donald Trump is the King of Chaos. He has lied at least 12,000 times since becoming president of the United States.

These lies are often obvious and lazy — such as incorrectly claiming that Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama and then forcing scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to parrot his lies. Trump’s lies are made no less dangerous when they happen to be lazy and obvious.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #537 on: September 18, 2019, 04:16:24 AM »
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/17/19, 7:19 PM
That is one heck of an MJO forecast by the ECMWF. It lasts well in to October. Sure hope people are ready and pay attention.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1174100655369281538

< For us layman, does that pattern typically mean a lot of cyclone activity in the E. Pacific or Atlantic, or both?
<< Typically Phase 1 or 2 supports the Atlantic. Phase 8 is more East Pacific. Phase 1 I think is especially favorable for the Gulf/Caribbean region (which is usually favored by October anyway). That strong of an MJO in late Sep/early Oct would be quite something.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #538 on: September 18, 2019, 08:49:15 AM »
Looks like Bermuda is going to get some +40 feet waves.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #539 on: September 18, 2019, 01:04:09 PM »
TS Jerry has officially been christened:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #540 on: September 18, 2019, 06:15:45 PM »
Hurricane Dorian a Catastrophe for Bahamas' Unique Birds
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hurricane-dorian-catastrophe-bahamas-unique.html

Globally, as many as 182 bird species are thought to have become extinct over the past five centuries. Of these, an astonishing 92% have been island species.


A female Bahama woodstar. These small hummingbirds weigh just two or three grams.

Bahamas' Endemic Species Unlikely To Have Survived Dorian:

Bahama nuthatch
Bahama warbler
Abaco parrot (Bahama Amazon parrot)
Bahama yellow throat
Olive-capped warbler
Bahama woodstar hummingbird
Bahama swallow



.. for most birds, the best chance of survival would have been to seek shelter in the pine forest.

Once covering much of the islands, this native ecosystem had evolved alongside Atlantic hurricanes and should in theory provide native birds with protection from a major storm. However, throughout the 20th century much of the Bahama pine forest was lost to industrial logging or urban development, and what remains is highly fragmented. More recently, major hurricanes have caused direct wind damage and storm surges that have sent salt water far inland, killing trees.

For the birds, all this is a disaster. Not only has much of their native habitat disappeared, but going down from trees to hide in ground cover would not be an option if the ground was flooded by the torrential rain.

All this is compounded by a further environmental impact of Dorian: an oil spill from a large storage facility on Grand Bahama island which is reported to have been holding 1.8m barrels at the time. That, along with the fact a hurricane usually dumps lots of plastic into the ocean, means even surviving birds may struggle to find feed and fresh water.

-----------------------

Hundreds of Sea Turtle Nests Lost after Hurricane Dorian: 'It could have been worse'
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hundreds-sea-turtle-lost-hurricane.html

Strong tropical winds and high tides associated with Hurricane Dorian unearthed hundreds of sea turtle nests on beaches along Florida's Space Coast, officials said.

... The state accounts for 90% of the nation's sea turtle nests and many East Coast beaches are expecting record numbers this year.

Officials at Canaveral National Seashore estimate that 1,500 nests of 6,000 marked before Dorian's arrival were affected.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #541 on: September 18, 2019, 07:46:16 PM »
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 9/18/19, 11:49 AM
#Jerry #trippy infrared satellite temperature pattern as the sun rises on it is vivid but also meteorologically interesting, as it accentuates the intricacy of the deep convection and waves propagating out from the core of the intensifying storm.
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1174349610875121665
Image below; gif at the link.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #542 on: September 18, 2019, 08:18:11 PM »
A Haphazard Recovery in the Bahamas
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/a-haphazard-recovery-in-the-bahamas
Quote
Police officers standing outside told me that journalists were not allowed to enter, but a man in a neon green New Balance shirt walked with me down the street so that he could tell me his story. His name was Wilson Jean-Baptiste. He was Haitian, from the city of Hinche, and had come to the Bahamas a year ago, to work. Until the storm destroyed everything he owned, he lived in the Mudd, in Marsh Harbour. He worked in construction and sent most of his earnings back to Haiti, to support his three children, who still lived there. He was most worried about his family, who had not been in the storm at all but depended on his earnings to survive.

The storm itself, he said, was “the worst in the world.” He said he knew some thirty people who had lost their lives, and had seen many people die. “When it isn’t your day to die, God helps you,” he said, about his own survival. We walked down the street, past a stadium next to the gym where the shelter was housed. Small groups of men and women greeted us in Creole as they walked past. For now, at least, Jean-Baptiste lives in Nassau. He left me at a street corner, then continued walking. He was going to look for work.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #543 on: September 18, 2019, 09:22:26 PM »
All Was Quiet at the Birmingham Weather Office. Until a Trump Forecast Brought a Storm.
Quote
Until now, the office’s tight-knit staff of about 25 has offered little insight about what transpired that day and the fallout. In interviews with The New York Times, employees stood behind the tweet, which remains on the office’s Twitter feed. The person who wrote it declined through an intermediary to discuss the flap, but co-workers, expressing unity, argued that it had come from every last one of them.
...
“Let me be clear. The Birmingham office did this to stop public panic, to ensure public safety — the same goal that all the National Weather Service offices were working toward at that time,”...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/us/birmingham-national-weather-service-dorian.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #544 on: September 18, 2019, 11:44:57 PM »
TS Jerry has officially been christened:
Given the average path of hurricanes - maybe Bermuda gets another dose in about a weeks time ?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #545 on: September 19, 2019, 01:03:28 AM »
TS Imelda
Quote
Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) 9/18/19, 6:04 PM
Tornado Warning east of Houston. This storm is almost certainly producing one west of Mont Belvieu, heading that way. Folks in MB and N or NE of Baytown should be in shelter.
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1174444125200027649
- We could see a few more of these types of brief tornado producing cells over the next few hours. Probably isolated and nothing too crazy, but don't be shocked to see a few more additional warnings.
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #546 on: September 19, 2019, 01:59:23 AM »
"MOST Bahamians would be priced out of the real estate market if the building code were changed so residential homes and businesses could withstand a Category Five hurricane, former Bahamas Contractor’s Association President Leonard Sands said yesterday.
#
“If you make it mandatory that houses now have to be built to deal with that category of strength, you’re talking about absolutely wiping out the construction centre because no one would be able to qualify for their homes,” he said. “The cost of the houses is going up already in places where you see the home building market is depressed because a lot of people can’t qualify anymore.
#
“The typical house that you could probably build in Marsh Harbour can probably be built at $130,000. To build for Category Five storms, people in the islands would be building three-bedroom, two bathrooms houses for a quarter million.”
#
The cost increase is because of the amount of steel and concrete needed for reinforcement.
#
Some Bahamians have long taken pride in the strength of the country’s building code, but with 90 percent of the buildings in Marsh Harbour destroyed, for instance, some have questioned whether the standards are outdated in the era of climate change.
#
George Cornish, 51, Abaco’s chief councillor, said evacuating entire islands before a storm is preferable to changing the building code.
#
“From my point of view, we’ve never seen a hurricane like this in our life,” he said from the United States where he went after the storm. “I went through Hurricane Floyd that damaged docks and buildings and stuff and the damage wasn’t this. This was Category Five, maybe even a six. I don’t think the building codes needs to change. I think we have a proper building code that has stood the test of time of other hurricanes. I think they are strong but it’s just this hurricane is something we’ve never seen in our lives before. If you change the code, poor people and those in the middle class wouldn’t be able to afford to build.”
#
Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.
#
“We need to build something up to code that can stand 180mph winds and more,” he said, noting the only shelter built specifically to withstand major hurricanes is located in Sandy Point, a settlement that did not get directly hit by Dorian.
#
The existing building code is designed to protect buildings when facing winds of up to 150mph. Dorian was a monster storm that had wind gusts exceeding 200mph when it made landfall on Abaco on September 1."

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/sep/16/building-to-resist-category-five-too-expensive/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #547 on: September 19, 2019, 02:49:01 AM »
There were 6 named storms in Atlantic and Pacific on Wednesday morning
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/18/weather/weather-six-named-storms/index.html
Image below.

Quote
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/18/19, 4:40 PM
#Imelda has brought more than 20 inches of rain to some areas in the Gulf Coast of Texas. We are LIVE and bringing you the latest.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1174422899442274305
3:30 pm CT Radar image at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #548 on: September 19, 2019, 03:14:38 AM »
Hurricane Ike hit in 2008.
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/18/19, 6:30 PM
Some serious elevation going on with the new construction in the wake of hurricane Ike along the bolivar peninsula in Texas.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1174450770835623937
Image below. 13-second video clip at the link.
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #549 on: September 19, 2019, 03:59:04 AM »

George Cornish, 51, Abaco’s chief councillor, said evacuating entire islands before a storm is preferable to changing the building code.
#
“From my point of view, we’ve never seen a hurricane like this in our life,” he said from the United States where he went after the storm. “I went through Hurricane Floyd that damaged docks and buildings and stuff and the damage wasn’t this. This was Category Five, maybe even a six. I don’t think the building codes needs to change. I think we have a proper building code that has stood the test of time of other hurricanes. I think they are strong but it’s just this hurricane is something we’ve never seen in our lives before. If you change the code, poor people and those in the middle class wouldn’t be able to afford to build.”

The thing is that this types of hurricane will happen more frequently, because of warmer waters an changing atmospheric patterns. This person, Mr. Cornish, who I assume to be a professional in charge of safe guarding the lives of their people is painfully unaware of it. Sadly, we are seeing these types of events more frequently and the rate and severity will keep increasing while the world warms and Earth systems change

.
Quote
Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.


Not a bad idea. For the population and size of Bahamas a "super refuge" sounds like a good idea. A properly built and well stocked building can preserve life and property. It should be built on a high place with an extremely good foundation, reinforced walls and windows and roof.

Ideally such facility should serve a purpose during the time is not used a shelter.

Also like all real security measures, the people need to be properly trained on the procedures for before, during and after the event.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.