Preprint from Knutson et al on tropical cyclone activity and anthro climate change, focussing on twin goals of reducing "Type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection)" and reducing " Type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection)"
It's a nice review article among other things.
"Summary ...
"Using the conventional perspective of avoiding Type I error, the strongest case for a detectable change in TC activity is the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the northwest Pacific basin, with eight of 11 authors rating the observed change as low-to- medium confidence for detection (with one other author having medium and two other authors having medium-to-high confidence). A slight majority of authors (six of 11) had only low confidence that anthropogenic forcing had contributed to the poleward shift. The majority of the author team also had only low confidence that any other observed TC changes represented either detectable changes or attributable anthropogenic changes. From the perspective of reducing Type II errors, a majority of the author team agreed on a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence) but which may be indicators of emerging anthropogenic signals in the data. Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii) increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades; and
v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region.
In addition, a majority of authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection) on:
vi) the unusually active TC season in the western North Pacific in 2015. Author opinion was divided but a slight majority concluded that:
vii) unusually high TC frequency near Hawaii in 2014 was a case where the balance of evidence suggested an anthropogenic influence (without detection).
Finally, most authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests:
viii) detectable (but not attributable) decreases in severe landfalling TC frequency in eastern Australia since the late 1800s; and
ix) detectable (but not attributable) decreased global TC translation speeds since 1949."
I attach Fig 1f-Fig 1j
Read the whole thing:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1ATTP has some discussion
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/06/11/extreme-weather-event-attribution/#commentssidd