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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #250 on: August 30, 2019, 05:55:46 AM »

96 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 PM AST September 02, 2019
Location: 27.0 N, -79.8 W
Maximum Wind: 120 knots (140 mph)
Wind Gusts: 145 knots (165 mph)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025521.shtml?gm_track#contents

miki

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #251 on: August 30, 2019, 06:08:15 AM »
96 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 PM AST September 02, 2019
Location: 27.0 N, -79.8 W
Maximum Wind: 120 knots (140 mph)
Wind Gusts: 145 knots (165 mph)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025521.shtml?gm_track#contents

And Mar a Lago be it  ;D

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #252 on: August 30, 2019, 06:43:07 AM »
Former PM of Canada Kim Campbell concurs ...

I’m rooting for a direct hit on Mar a Lago!
https://mobile.twitter.com/AKimCampbell/status/1166772072002883584
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

budmantis

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #253 on: August 30, 2019, 07:32:29 AM »
For sure! While Trump is there!

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #254 on: August 30, 2019, 07:59:42 AM »
So much hate over here.

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #255 on: August 30, 2019, 08:09:02 AM »
From the tropicaltidbits graph:
Min MSLP: 936.7mb

 :o
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Ajpope85

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #256 on: August 30, 2019, 08:27:46 AM »
So much hate over here.

Gee, I wonder why.

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #257 on: August 30, 2019, 08:42:39 AM »
I intensely dislike Trump, but I'd appreciate it if folks would refrain from posting wishes for a direct hit anywhere, including Mar a Lago. A hurricane is not a pinpoint bomb and there are real people living there and around, I am sure they are unhappy and offended to read such stuff even if made jokingly.

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #258 on: August 30, 2019, 08:45:39 AM »
^^
Ramen !
Terry

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #259 on: August 30, 2019, 09:43:39 AM »
Schadenfreude

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #260 on: August 30, 2019, 11:25:53 AM »
From the tropicaltidbits graph:
Min MSLP: 936.7mb

From the 18Z run:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

P-maker

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #261 on: August 30, 2019, 12:05:27 PM »
According to Danish media, Trump has cancelled his visit to Poland this weekend. Apparently, he wishes to sit at home with Melanie in Washington watching the tragedies unfold...

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #262 on: August 30, 2019, 12:34:24 PM »
Making sure FEMA protects his property is a higher duty than matters of state.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #263 on: August 30, 2019, 12:42:32 PM »


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #264 on: August 30, 2019, 01:17:00 PM »
Hurricane Dorian is days away from striking Florida and could be a monster storm by landfall
All of Florida is under a state of emergency and authorities are urging residents to stockpile a week's worth of food and supplies as Hurricane Dorian gathers strength and aims to slam the state as soon as Monday as a Category 4 storm.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/30/us/dorian-forecast-friday-wxc/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #265 on: August 30, 2019, 05:20:53 PM »
The NOAA track keeps bending a little south, placing the centre of the track very close to West Palm Beach. The more south it bends the worse the impact will be as it landfalls somewhere between West Palm Beach and Miami.

Even worse if it slows down substantially and pivots north parallel to the coastline as seems possible with how the NOAA track looks at the moment and the NOAA forecast comments. The hurricane has also intensified a little bit and has the possibility of getting even stronger.

Quote
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt. The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula.  This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301449.shtml

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #266 on: August 30, 2019, 05:50:48 PM »
Florida Gas Stations Are Running Out of Fuel as Hurricane Dorian Approaches
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/30/hurricane-dorian-gas-stations/2162882001/

Florida fuel stations are rapidly running out of gasoline as residents rush to fill up in preparation for Hurricane Dorian.

Residents who are hunkering down or evacuating are rushing to get fuel in areas like West Palm Beach, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Gainesville, Fort Myers and Naples.

Long lines are being reported in many areas, following a pattern similar to when Hurricane Irma caused outages throughout the state two years ago.

"This whole situation is more dire than I would’ve expected in terms of outages and people on the move and waiting for gas," said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, an app that helps people find and save on fuel. "People are taking it seriously."

The outages are the worst in West Palm Beach, where 50% of stations didn't have fuel as of 9 a.m. Friday, according to GasBuddy.

In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market, 49.3% of stations were out, while 45.7% were out in Ford Myers-Naples.


In Gainesville, 45.7% were out, while 31.3% were out in Orlando-Daytona Beach and 20.1% were out in Tampa-St. Petersburg.

The outages reflect a significant spike from 6:30 p.m. Thursday, when the worst market for outages was West Palm Beach at 28.5%.

“We, in the emergency declaration, waived service and truck rates for fuel trucks so we can increase capacity for fuel being brought in. We're also going to be starting today implementing Florida Highway Patrol escorts for fuel trucks so we can increase fueling in critical parts of the state," DeSantis said, according to CNN.

Long lines have also been reported across the state, especially in Brevard County.

Miami-Dade officials urged residents to fill up their gas tanks in case they needed to evacuate. They also urged people to fill gas cans for their generators and gas-powered tools.

------------------------------

If a major storm threatens South Florida, it could take up to 99 hours to get everyone out, studies show.

That’s more than four days for perhaps millions of evacuees from Miami-Dade and Broward counties to go through Palm Beach County and northward. But authorities typically don’t know a storm’s power or direction that far in advance.


https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20190829/hurricane-dorian-evacuation-zone-maps-and-shelters

---------------------------

Florida Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies: Regional Population and Vulnerability Analysis
https://www.floridadisaster.org/dem/ITM/regional-evacuation-studies/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #267 on: August 30, 2019, 06:22:05 PM »
From Jim Hunt's post above (thanks for the update Jim :) ):
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2569.msg225724.html#msg225724

Min MSLP: 914.9mb forecasted for this monday 9AM.

I'm astonished at this low pressure in the north atlantic.
If this would play out, wouldn't it be a record?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #268 on: August 30, 2019, 06:36:17 PM »
It only needs one.......

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/301449.shtml
From Discussion 25 -another 5 knots on the wind-speed, and note the word "prolonged" as Dorian slow down as it nears Florida.
Quote
Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.5N  69.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 25.3N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 25.9N  72.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 26.3N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 26.6N  76.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 26.8N  78.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 27.0N  80.4W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H  04/1200Z 29.0N  81.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
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dnem

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #269 on: August 30, 2019, 06:39:46 PM »
Min MSLP: 914.9mb forecasted for this monday 9AM.

I'm astonished at this low pressure in the north atlantic.
If this would play out, wouldn't it be a record?

No, Wilma got down to 882 mb.  Several have been in the upper 800s.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #270 on: August 30, 2019, 06:43:09 PM »
That's almost the entire east-coast. And with just a few days out.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #271 on: August 30, 2019, 06:48:10 PM »
There is an interesting divergence between the GFS and European models.  The GFS model has the storm turning northward much earlier, hitting Florida closer to the Jacksonville area.  The European model has the storm hitting south Florida, near Ft. Lauderdale, and crossing the state and entering the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa, before turning northward.  The composite cone has the storm hitting central Florida and turning northward over the peninsula, leading to faster weakening.  The models are fairly consistent, until late Sunday, when the divergence occurs.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #272 on: August 30, 2019, 07:48:18 PM »
So much hate over here.

Gee, I wonder why.

Indeed. The current occupant of the White House, Hair Furor, is the personification of hate.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #273 on: August 30, 2019, 07:53:01 PM »
There is a big difference. Trump tries to protect it's home. If we all did that, there would be no climate crisis, no immigrant crisis.... But the hate you find here, that's blind hate. You hate him, because you don't agree with him.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #274 on: August 30, 2019, 07:56:56 PM »
They still predict it's going to be a hurricane  after he moved north half of the state. Probably he keeps getting power from the ocean. That would be the worst case scenario.

wili

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #275 on: August 30, 2019, 08:44:22 PM »
Eric Holthaus is saying this could become a coastal flooding catastrophe, from Miami to NoCarolina

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurricane-dorian_n_5d68be08e4b02bc6bb37451e
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #276 on: August 30, 2019, 09:29:29 PM »
"King" tide this week.
Surge and wave heights are a function of fetch ,wind speed and time.
The storm is powerful and traveling slowly.
Massive coastal damage is unavoidable at this point even if the storm stays offshore as some models predict.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #277 on: August 30, 2019, 10:18:04 PM »
Trump ... You hate him, because you don't agree with him.
That man through his actions is a real threat to the future well being of my family, perhaps even their lives. Better him dead than my family.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #278 on: August 30, 2019, 10:47:44 PM »
Hear, hear!
Refugees welcome

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #279 on: August 30, 2019, 10:50:02 PM »
"King" tide this week.
Surge and wave heights are a function of fetch ,wind speed and time.
The storm is powerful and traveling slowly.
Massive coastal damage is unavoidable at this point even if the storm stays offshore as some models predict.
Miami has been having problems with King Tides without a cloud on the horizon.


It's 440 Miles (710km) from Miami Fl. to Valdosta Ga. If you plan to flee start yesterday. That window is closing/has closed.
This would be a wonderful time for Floridians to visit relatives in Montana.

Do we have any active posters in the area?
Let us know when you've reached safety.
Terry

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #280 on: August 30, 2019, 10:53:12 PM »
Trump ... You hate him, because you don't agree with him.
That man through his actions is a real threat to the future well being of my family, perhaps even their lives. Better him dead than my family anyone I care about.
Raman !

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #281 on: August 30, 2019, 10:54:56 PM »
Why, because he's drilling for oil ? Than you should tell your family to sell their car. And to stop travelling, and stop going to the supermarket. And nobody will drill for oil anymore. But until today the US needs 20 million barrels every day. That's what feeds their economy. That's how they make their money to go to the supermarket and to travel the world.

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #282 on: August 30, 2019, 10:59:00 PM »
This is not a political thread. Take it to the Trump thread.
Refugees welcome

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #283 on: August 30, 2019, 11:06:06 PM »
Lest anyone be worrying, my friend, the young Chinese PHD I've mentioned from time to time is safe at Waterloo as the Americans still haven't decided whether her presence on a American campus represents a threat to students taking advanced STEM courses. She won't be headed for the University of Florida, or any other American institution of higher learning until the Americans have made their decision, and until she has re-evaluated her options.
She's teaching a few courses at UW for the coming semester(s)
Terry

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #284 on: August 30, 2019, 11:07:57 PM »
And something els. Because of that high population density over here, the place is a cancer paradise. So it's more like you killing me.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #285 on: August 30, 2019, 11:53:08 PM »
The Weather Channel on Twitter: "If the current forecast for #Dorian is correct, the United States will have three straight years with a major #hurricane landfall (Category 3 or stronger). That hasn't happened in nearly 60 years:”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1167234593822576640
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #286 on: August 31, 2019, 12:40:50 AM »
Quote
David Lilley (EastNorCarWX1251) (@norcareas1251) 8/30/19, 3:58 PM
Any idea what that ring-shaped cloud formation in the eye is? It's the first time I've seen such a formation in any hurricane.
https://twitter.com/norcareas1251/status/1167527062057472001
- You may've read double eyeWALL. That's a sign of an eyewall replacement cycle. Dorian already underwent it, hence why it's blown up in intensity. Double eyes don't exist, unfortunately. That would be cool to see a hurricane stare at you lol
Other guesses, mostly tongue-in-cheek, in the replies at the link.
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morganism

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #287 on: August 31, 2019, 01:08:51 AM »
With a blocking front headed towards AL/FL, it may stall Dorian long enough for the next 'cane to catch up.
The steering winds for that new one aren't blocked, or looping, so it may blow thru the Keys Gap, and then suck back up behind that blocking high, giving a double hit to NC/SC...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #288 on: August 31, 2019, 02:57:53 AM »
Quote
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (@NOAA_HurrHunter) 8/29/19, 2:17 PM
LAKELAND, FL - #NOAA49 prepares for a Hurricane #Dorian reconnaissance mission with the first all female three-pilot flight crew, featuring Capt. Kristie Twining, Cmdr. Rebecca Waddington, and Lt. Lindsey Norman.
Get the latest forecast at hurricanes.gov.
#FlyNOAA
https://twitter.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1167139212694441985
Photo below.

You can track the hurricane hunter plane here (it’s up right now):
N49RF Live Flight Tracking and History (GLF4 owned by UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE) FlightAware
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N49RF
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #289 on: August 31, 2019, 03:02:01 AM »
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/310027.shtml
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #290 on: August 31, 2019, 03:21:29 AM »
The Weather Channel:  25% of Florida gas stations are out of gas.  State troopers are escorting tankers to re-supply.
Image below from Gas Buddy.  Red = no gas.  Yellow = limited fuel options.

Mandatory evacuations posted for Brevard County (Melbourne / Space Coast area).

NASA Space Center Prepares for Hurricane Dorian as Satellites Track Storm
https://www.space.com/hurricane-dorian-nasa-kennedy-space-center-prep.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #291 on: August 31, 2019, 03:38:19 AM »
Quote
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 8/30/19, 5:42 PM
Just a remarkable view of Major Hurricane #Dorian this evening. This is a picture of power.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1167553162787663875
Image below.  Gif at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sark

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #292 on: August 31, 2019, 04:41:11 AM »
it apparently ticked up to 190mph at 1000ft

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1167603880018042882

cat 4 with a dropsonde measuring 951mb

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167578198588174336
I am not a scientist

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #293 on: August 31, 2019, 06:17:17 AM »
Where will landfall be?

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #294 on: August 31, 2019, 06:37:56 AM »
For affected people without a car or without petrol:

take the train or bus north.
There are trains and busses in Florida I guess(?).

Tor, I'm not sure but weren't you living on the north-west side of the Florida peninsula?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #295 on: August 31, 2019, 06:52:07 AM »
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Quote
LOCATION...25.5N 71.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
Cat four
Plenty of time and energy available to hit cat five .
Eye wall replacements could  push the storm out wider.
Big mo fo if you live in the cone  get out now .


blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #296 on: August 31, 2019, 09:49:44 AM »
Dorian, 60 frames, 20 minutes incrememts.

Quite a beautiful beast...
Refugees welcome

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #297 on: August 31, 2019, 11:37:02 AM »
Quote
The initial motion is now 290/10.  A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models.  The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.  The global
models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON
models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none
of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida.
  However, the
UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida
peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.  The new
track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of
the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the
various consensus models.  Additional adjustments to the forecast
track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.
It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty.  Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.


Hopefully Dorian will continue to shift to the east and miss Florida entirely.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #298 on: August 31, 2019, 01:37:26 PM »
Dorian:- Mar-A-Lago escapes the worst ?(heavy sigh)
But if it does slide slowly up the coast of Florida..........
Looks definite that any Rich Men's Big Toys (i.e. boats) still in Grand Bahama are heading for the scrapheap. (Makes one really, really sad.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/310848.shtml
Quote
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  28 (Extracts)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-15 n mi wide eye.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/10.  A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. 

The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.  The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. 

Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty.  Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. 

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week

3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week. 

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 25.8N  72.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 26.1N  74.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 26.5N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 26.7N  77.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 26.9N  78.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 27.5N  79.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #299 on: August 31, 2019, 02:05:44 PM »
For affected people without a car or without petrol:

take the train or bus north.
There are trains and busses in Florida I guess(?).

Tor, I'm not sure but weren't you living on the north-west side of the Florida peninsula?

As for passenger rail other than city commuter systems...not really...

Amtrak rail map is below.

Appears to be 2 trains daily to certain Florida cities.

http://cwrr.com/Amtrak/e_fl_s.html

With a population of 21.65 million and 126 million tourists annually, you'd think there would be more than 2 trains.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 02:13:07 PM by Shared Humanity »