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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #300 on: August 31, 2019, 02:36:31 PM »
Emergency Info | Florida Disaster
https://www.floridadisaster.org/info/

Evacuation orders; apps, links, and a phone number if you need help.

——-

I am also concerned about storm surge and flooding in southeast coastal cities like Charleston and Wilmington.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 02:45:40 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #301 on: August 31, 2019, 02:45:49 PM »
Looks like the Amtrak option is not longer available.

Amtrak

"Due to severe weather expected to impact Florida and the Southeast, Amtrak is canceling select Southeast services beginning on Saturday, Aug. 31. For the safety of our customers and employees, the following trains will not operate.

"Service canceled from Saturday, Aug. 31, to Monday, Sept. 2, includes:

Silver Star 91 (New York – Miami)
Silver Meteor 97 (Miami – New York)
"Service canceled from Saturday, Aug. 31, to Tuesday, Sept. 3, includes:

Silver Star 91 & 92 (New York – Miami)
Silver Meteor 97 & 98 (Miami – New York)
"Service canceled from Sunday, Sept. 1, to Tuesday, Sept. 3, includes:

Auto Train 52 & 53 (Lorton, Va., - Sanford, Fla.)
"Bus transportation will not be provided for canceled trains. Service will be restored pending improved conditions.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #302 on: August 31, 2019, 05:51:08 PM »
The latest forecast has Dorian skirting the entire southeast coast and heading out to sea.  Florida and other states may have expected landfall from this storm.

crandles

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #303 on: August 31, 2019, 05:53:17 PM »

Hopefully Dorian will continue to shift to the east and miss Florida entirely.

so far



but coast still well inside cone

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #304 on: August 31, 2019, 09:03:09 PM »
RAMMB update

60 frames, 10-minute increments.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #305 on: September 01, 2019, 01:02:48 AM »
Hurricane Dorian: Trump Flies to Golf Club as Likelihood of Direct Hit Recedes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/31/hurricane-dorian-category-4-florida-bahamas

On Friday, the president had given the impression as he left the White House that he would spend Saturday at Camp David with experts, monitoring Dorian’s progress, and would return to Washington on Sunday to attend a briefing at Fema.

However, Trump went to his Virginia golf club, having travelled there by helicopter from Camp David in Maryland.

Stephanie Grisham, the White House press secretary, said ... that it was better for him to remain in the US after cancelling a planned weekend trip to Poland.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #306 on: September 01, 2019, 09:08:04 AM »
A comparison to show the trajectory.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #307 on: September 01, 2019, 10:01:43 AM »
New storms are forming.

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #308 on: September 01, 2019, 10:35:06 AM »
Hi Archimid,

How are you doing? Can you please tell us about the situation?
Has Puerto Rico had any problems from the passing of Dorian?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

bbr2314

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #309 on: September 01, 2019, 11:03:54 AM »
These slums will get the right front quadrant of the storm.

https://ewnews.com/3041-reside-in-six-abaco-shantytowns-report-reveals

They are situated directly in the path on Abaco Island.


Bernard

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #311 on: September 01, 2019, 11:59:17 AM »

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #312 on: September 01, 2019, 01:19:45 PM »

Models are shifting back to the west.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #313 on: September 01, 2019, 02:06:09 PM »
Dorian was very weird. I spent the day of Wednesday thinking nothing would happen to me because the storm was going to exit south. As the forecast changed I went to bed thinking the storm will pass right over my place. The next morning as I was cleaning the gutters and preparing the back up power I heard the hurricane entirely missed us.  I was happy.

I believe the island of Culebra suffered some damage, but the winds and water missed the big island.

Really not much to tell except that I'm very happy it missed us. It served as a warning for the rest of the season.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #314 on: September 01, 2019, 02:59:03 PM »
Dorian Now a Category 5 Storm
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1168130386628448257

Hurricane Dorian now has maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. This would put the storm in the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Dorian will be capable of catastrophic damage as it tracks towards the Bahamas today into tomorrow.

Dorian is powerful but compact. Satellite images of Dorian portray the hurricane as a relatively small feature, with hurricane-force winds "only" extending out from the center by about 30 miles, while tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of the hurricane by about 105 miles.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1167824051823206407
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 03:32:36 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #315 on: September 01, 2019, 03:04:37 PM »
Already there.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #316 on: September 01, 2019, 04:35:01 PM »
Monster Dorian upgraded to 175 mph, 922mb.
Still good chances of a Florida near miss.

nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #317 on: September 01, 2019, 05:07:02 PM »
<snip>
Really not much to tell except that I'm very happy it missed us. It served as a warning for the rest of the season.

Thanks Archimid. I don't know you but I am happy for you.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #318 on: September 01, 2019, 05:12:03 PM »
180 mph, 913 mb, according to the latest advisory.

dnem

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #319 on: September 01, 2019, 05:15:42 PM »
With just very slightly different steering conditions for this hurricane, Florida would suffer a $250-500 billion disaster.  It looks like this bullet will be dodged, but one will find its mark before long.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #320 on: September 01, 2019, 06:48:33 PM »
Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind gust to 100 mph.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sark

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #321 on: September 01, 2019, 07:14:28 PM »
185mph at landfall at Elbow Cay, Abacos

"Labor Day" 1935

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1168204860577026049

Gusts 220+

906-908mb and falling

Cat 6
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 07:27:47 PM by sark »
I am not a scientist

Bernard

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #322 on: September 01, 2019, 07:26:13 PM »
The latest forecast is closer to Florida coast, and I'm afraid the next one will be yet closer. Models are models, but looking at nullschool the patterns of wind over Atlantic, and the large low deepening in the Gulf, I don't understand how it can make any soon an abrupt shift to the North, against current general circulation.

[edited : just had a conversation with someone-who-knows-best, saying nullschool only shows surface wind, and hurricanes are very sensitive to vertical shift. Sometimes we forget that atmosphere in not in 2-D]
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 07:40:03 PM by Bernard »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #323 on: September 01, 2019, 09:07:52 PM »
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 9/1/19, 2:18 PM
Here's the latest 12Z HWRF simulation for Major Hurricane #Dorian. The high resolution model continues to promote an impactful Florida landfall during the early Wednesday morning hours. The Florida threat is real and preparations should be considered.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1168226646710788097
Images below; gif at the link.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #324 on: September 01, 2019, 09:08:26 PM »
... As the storm’s eye passed over the island, Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis announced that parts of Marsh Harbor, a town of more than 6,000, appeared to be “underwater,” and reports surfaced of desperate residents in now-roofless homes trying to seek shelter from rising floodwaters.

He continued: “I can say that in the Marsh Harbour area of Abaco, parts of it is already underwater and in some areas you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street or where the ocean begins.

“And they have not yet been hit by the brunt of the storm,” he said.


Marsh Harbour area of Abaco

Residents of the northern Abaco islands and Grand Bahama — including villagers who stayed put on low-lying cays — were hunkering down for a siege that could see some parts of this nation of nearly 400,000 people withstand hurricane conditions for two days.

On the Abacos islands, violent waves and lashing wind and rain tore apart docks and power lines and flooded roads as Dorian strengthened to Category 5 right before it struck. Images on social media showed flooded, impassible roads. Phone lines went down, isolating thousands.

Low-lying Marsh Harbour, the largest town in the Abacos, suffered storm surges. Officials said the Mudds, a shantytown of Haitian immigrants, was severely damaged. Roofs were blown off hotels and homes. A video surfaced of one man begging for help as storm rain raged inside his home.

More than 500 people lived on cays off Central Abaco and that most had remained despite evacuation orders.

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/dorian-rips-apart-docks-floods-roads-in-northern-bahamas/2019/09/01/a358e27a-cc1c-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?outputType=amp
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #325 on: September 01, 2019, 09:28:46 PM »
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #326 on: September 01, 2019, 09:32:00 PM »
NASA (@NASA) 9/1/19, 1:56 PM
Take a look at #HurricaneDorian churning over the Atlantic Ocean, as captured by cameras outside the @Space_Station at 12:16pm ET. As a Category 5 hurricane, the storm is carrying the strongest winds in recorded history for the northwestern Bahamas.

Views of Hurricane Dorian from the International Space Station - September 1, 2019


The station was moving in a southeasterly direction.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #327 on: September 01, 2019, 09:34:30 PM »
Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 9/1/19, 2:18 PM
Here's the latest 12Z HWRF simulation for Major Hurricane #Dorian. The high resolution model continues to promote an impactful Florida landfall during the early Wednesday morning hours. The Florida threat is real and preparations should be considered.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1168226646710788097
Images below; gif at the link.

Jeez! That's a direct hit on Cape Canaveral. I don't think the Vehicle Assembly Building can withstand a direct hit from a Cat 5. And there's a one-of-a-kind crawler in that building.

This could take SpaceX with it, also.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_Assembly_Building

... In the wake of Hurricane Andrew’s trail of destruction through Florida, people at KSC decided that any building built after that storm would be constructed to withstand winds between 130 and 135 miles per hour. Other, older, buildings are also storm-ready. The large, iconic Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) that’s used to store the center’s biggest spacecraft should be able to withstand wind gusts of 125 miles per hour. While that’s a threshold below Dorian’s expected high wind speeds, KSC isn’t too worried about the VAB’s integrity just yet. “It’s a solid steel cage with aluminum siding,” Derrol Nail, a communications representative at NASA’s KSC, tells The Verge. “There are 8,000 tons of steel inside this building, so yes it can withstand a lot.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2019/8/30/20840536/nasa-kennedy-space-center-hurricane-dorian-preparation-hurcon
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 10:16:53 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #328 on: September 01, 2019, 09:46:45 PM »
Cat 65 and still a  chance it will hit Florida.


Historical data is too noisy and unreliable to tease an AGW effect out as yet and will remain so for decades.
 Ocean heat content is increasing with certainty. The Physics says more energy can power stronger storms.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 01:55:35 PM by KiwiGriff »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #329 on: September 01, 2019, 09:50:46 PM »
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?

And a couple of those forecasts have it cat 5 in a week. Could it reach Washington or New York in that much time?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #330 on: September 01, 2019, 10:01:41 PM »
KSC was built to withstand hurricanes — after all, the launch structures have to withstand rocket launches — it has held up well through the decades.  SpaceX has no flights scheduled until later in September, so pad preparations should be minimal.  However, the site in nearby Cocoa, Florida where one of the Starship prototypes is being fabricated is not hardened, so there is concern there.  A new protective structure has recently been seen to be erected, but it (currently) has no doors. (Photos at bottom link.)  Edit:  the good news is, SpaceX Falcon rockets are stored horizontally, not vertically!  So their facility is not as vulnerable as the VAB.

SpaceX braces for Florida-bound Dorian as hurricane threatens local Starship facility
Quote
SpaceX may not be new to preparing its Florida launch facilities for hurricanes and tropical storms, but Hurricane Dorian poses entirely new challenges due to the fact that the company has recently begun operating a fairly extensive Starship production facility in Cocoa, Florida. The vast majority of Cocoa’s work is done entirely out in the open, rarely protected by more than a spartan windbreak or temporary tent. According to local photographer Greg Scott, SpaceX has paused all Starship production work for the moment and is working all-out to secure its facilities as the potentially catastrophic Cat 4 Hurricane Dorian fast approaches.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-braces-for-hurricane-dorian-starship-facility-at-risk/

Quote
SpaceXFleet Updates (@SpaceXFleet) 8/31/19, 7:49 PM
Port Canaveral operations have now ceased until a post-storm survey is complete. The Port is all-but empty, except for a few ships that cannot leave.
OCISLY remains and will be watched by tugboat operators throughout the storm to prevent disaster if the droneship breaks loose. twitter.com/PortCanaveral/…
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1167947452625780736

Port Canaveral (@PortCanaveral) 8/31/19, 7:35 PM
CONDITION ‘YANKEE’: The Coast Guard Captain of the Port set condition Yankee for Port Canaveral terminals and facilities due to sustained gale-force winds from Hurricane Dorian expected within 24 hours. portcanaveral.com/About/Hurrican…
https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Hurricane-Awareness?viewmode=0
At the link:  U.S. Coast Guard sent this bulletin at 08/31/2019 04:55 PM EDT

Quote
Greg Scott (@GregScott_photo) 8/31/19, 11:08 AM
FINAL STARSHIP UPDATE: As of this early this morn all people,at least visibly, are off property, gates are locked and #Starship is inside but w/o doors. Not sure how much protection this will provide but seems to be final effort before #Dorian #Nasa #ElonMusk #Space #Mars
https://twitter.com/gregscott_photo/status/1167816327609933824
Photos at the link.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 10:23:58 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #331 on: September 01, 2019, 10:14:10 PM »
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?

And a couple of those forecasts have it cat 5 in a week. Could it reach Washington or New York in that much time?

Current GFS model puts it near NYC on Sat Sept 7.  But it’s much too soon to rely on this for actual location or strength.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #332 on: September 01, 2019, 11:35:34 PM »




Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/011856.shtml.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 11:49:12 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Milwen

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #333 on: September 01, 2019, 11:51:14 PM »
https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Aircraft fly-through collecting data. Update every 10mins.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #334 on: September 02, 2019, 12:35:54 AM »
Short cellphone video clips from the Bahamas.  Storm surge.

Quote
Deeqs (@lvkvhuni)9/1/19, 1:29 PM
Dorian cutting a whole movie on my little Bahamas
https://twitter.com/lvkvhuni/status/1168214186637312000

Quote
Deeqs (@lvkvhuni) 9/1/19, 2:33 PM
 :o Abaco Bahamas, Dorian
https://twitter.com/lvkvhuni/status/1168230373525995520
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #335 on: September 02, 2019, 01:01:35 AM »
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 8/31/19, 7:33 AM
Here a look inside the clear eye of #Dorian this morning from the @HRD_AOML_NOAA Hurricane Hunter P-3 Aircraft. Picture credit Paul Chang
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1167762389678219268

Edit: another photo:

Quote
Garrett Black (@GBlack22wx) 9/1/19, 5:24 PM
The eye of #Dorian
https://twitter.com/gblack22wx/status/1168273327531679744
- Credit to Jordan Sun and @McAlisterHunter on board with us today for their great camera work!
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 02:32:00 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #336 on: September 02, 2019, 01:05:06 AM »
Quote
Daryl Sausse` (@SausseImages) 8/30/19, 11:58 PM
Florida folks: If you're going to evac, I suggest you empty your fridge and freezer of anything you don't want to smell when you come back because it spoiled. After Katrina, everyone threw the fridge away whole without even opening it!
https://twitter.com/sausseimages/status/1167647714378735617
Or, if you're going to take the chance, freeze a cup of water with a coin on top and put it in the freezer. When you get back, if the coin is at the bottom, everything thawed and has gone bad.

Just some tips for folks who haven't been through this before.

====
Edit:

On top of everything else it has to do to inform people about Hurricane Dorian, the NWS now has to keep track of Trump’s lies, and correct them. >:(

NWS Birmingham 9/1/19, 11:11 AM:
Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east. #alwx
https://twitter.com/nwsbirmingham/status/1168179647667814400

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-says-hurricane-dorian-will-hit-alabama-as-forecasters-insist-there-is-no-threat

====
Another edit:
Jacksonville, Flroida and Charleston County, South Carolina are among locations issuing mandatory evacuation orders.
Hurricane Dorian descends on US: Live updates
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-september-2019/index.html
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 01:46:08 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #337 on: September 02, 2019, 02:28:19 AM »
Kerrin Jeromin (@KerrinJeromin) 9/1/19, 9:19 AM
The evolution of the NHC forecast cone.
Very challenging task they have. Great work to all the staff at NHC working constantly to predict where this beast will go #Dorian
https://twitter.com/kerrinjeromin/status/1168151373323493376
Gif at the link: sequence of the NHC forecast maps so far.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #338 on: September 02, 2019, 03:21:29 AM »
President Donald Trump on the existence of Category 5 hurricanes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/sep/02/hurricane-dorian-category-5-storm-bahamas-florida-south-north-carolina-updates?page=with:block-5d6c68428f08399d62f594c7#block-5d6c68428f08399d62f594c7

Quote
... ‘I’m not sure I’ve even heard of a category 5’ says Donald Trump about Hurricane Dorian – video

... as a reminder, here are the previous times that Donald Trump has been equally surprised to learn of the existence of category 5 storms



https://mobile.twitter.com/ddale8/status/1168229088642981889
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #339 on: September 02, 2019, 03:48:34 AM »
Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) 9/1/19, 5:07 PM
The 17:00 EDT, 1 Sept. advisory. Projected path cone virtually unchanged. 185mph sustained winds. Slowing down a little to 5mph from 7mph. It will slow before it makes the northward turn. But this is horrible for The Bahamas. #HurricaneDorian
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1168269105893388294
Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral now under Hurricane Warnings.
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vox_mundi

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Ktb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #341 on: September 02, 2019, 09:24:56 AM »
That eye-wall is absolutely breathtaking
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #342 on: September 02, 2019, 01:49:50 PM »
Maria was a cat 4  that hit my place like a Cat 3. I experienced the winds and water for over 24 hours.  The constant pressure changes, vibrations and noise of destruction was almost unbearable. It was horrible. To this day it spoiled rain for me. I still feel Maria fear when it rains. I used to love rain.

Dorian is a cat 5 moving at 5 mph. These people will be under alien planet conditions for over 24 (48?) hours. I bet most of their homes are not concrete, like mine. The tide alone will wipe entire sections of the island.

Who will help them when the storm is over? I know WCK is already to go, but who else? The red cross? The US in solidarity? Rich people with homes, boats and secret bank accounts there?
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #343 on: September 02, 2019, 02:39:03 PM »
 A British Royal Navy auxiliary ship is set to arrive in the Bahamas to assist in recovery from Hurricane Dorian.

The RFA Mounts Bay vessel was deployed to the region in June in anticipation of hurricane season, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

The vessel is equipped with aid, specialist personnel, building materials, and a helicopter. According to CNN , the vessel was set to arrive in the area Monday.

50,000 in need = 1 helicopter

----------------------

... There is no official word on casualties but the Red Cross fears some 13,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed.

Dorian is travelling west at just over 1mph (2km/h).


The NHC said the hurricane would "continue to pound Grand Bahama Island" through much of the day and evening on Monday.

... video and tweets posted by Latrae Rahming, a former aide to ex-PM Perry Christie, showed severe damage on the Abaco Islands, home to about 17,000 people, where landfall was first made with sustained winds close to 185mph.

Cars have been flipped over and roofs torn off.

Mr Rahming told the BBC it was as though a tornado had swept through Marsh Harbour on the Abacos, with a surge as high as a two-storey building bringing intense flooding.

He said he feared for one shanty town area that houses about 1,500 people.


https://twitter.com/i/status/1168227588533293056

--------------------------

Hurricane Dorian could cause insurance industry losses of up to $25bn (£20.7bn) according to analysts at UBS, Reuters reports.

UBS analysts updated their model to reflect a wider potential industry insured loss range of $5bn to $40bn and raised their base case to $25bn from $15bn, with solvency capital at risk.

The analysts estimate about $70bn of natural catastrophe losses for 2019 and added this could erode excess capital and raise prices.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #344 on: September 02, 2019, 02:49:27 PM »
Quote
A British Royal Navy auxiliary ship is set to arrive in the Bahamas to assist in recovery from Hurricane Dorian.

That is something. War machinery being used to cure climate change wounds. No doubt they will make a difference.

Quote
He said he feared for one shanty town area that houses about 1,500 people.

I fear the worse for them and many others. It is unlikely we will ever hear about them. National security issue. That's how cowardly government officials deal with these types of circumstances. They hide the numbers to save face.

If only we were expecting these types of events more often. But no. That's too scary to consider.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #345 on: September 02, 2019, 03:00:18 PM »

Grand Bahama Island is the island north of Nassau with its capital labeled Freeport. ... No place to hide

... wind gusts of up to 200 mph and storm surge up to 23 feet above normal tide levels will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day on Monday

... rescue teams won't get to hurricane victims on Great Abaco Island until Wednesday.

... Bahamas Press reported Monday that the Grand Bahama International Airport was under five feet of water.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 03:08:20 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #346 on: September 02, 2019, 03:13:30 PM »
@WCKitchen has kitchens ready to go and shelters mapped out. If kitchens are destroyed, we build one and cook in big paella pans!

https://mobile.twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1168204488710205442
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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #347 on: September 02, 2019, 03:13:59 PM »
Has anyone had a look at the 06z 3KNAM run yet!?!   I know it's the NAM and typically does not perform well with tropical systems, but was one of the few models that predicted that mass IR of Dorian from a high end 4 (150mph) to a super cat5 (180+mph).

Anyways,  it has Dorian deepening again once it hits the gulf stream and this time sub 900mb.  Probably won't happen but definitely something to watch for.  SSTs are crazy high in front of Dorian's path.

BTW GFS and Euro also hint at restrengthening once it hits the gulf stream.  Global models are doing horrible job with the initialization.  They keep starting their runs 30mb higher than what the pressure actually is. 
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 03:28:52 PM by GoodeWeather »

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #348 on: September 02, 2019, 04:01:03 PM »
Decent article in the Washington Post about Dorian: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/02/catastrophic-hurricane-dorian-blasting-bahamas-bearing-down-florida-georgia-carolinas/

One new record has been flagged up in the article - this is the first time on record that there have been four successive years with at least one Cat 5 hurricane. What are the odds that 2020 will make it five years, I wonder?

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #349 on: September 02, 2019, 04:23:53 PM »
Minister of Agriculture and Marco City MP Michael Pintard, who lives on Grand Bahama, showing some utterly frightening footage of his home during the passage of Hurricane Dorian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TravisCC/status/1168522003009220608
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