Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2019  (Read 100391 times)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #350 on: September 02, 2019, 04:32:42 PM »
JFC!!!  ( looks like the final half hour of the Titanic) :o
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2219
  • Likes Given: 1870
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #351 on: September 02, 2019, 04:59:04 PM »
JFC indeed  :o

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 720
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 383
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #352 on: September 02, 2019, 05:16:35 PM »
Dorian would be category 6, if this category existed.

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #353 on: September 02, 2019, 05:23:16 PM »
Dorian is a highest category 5 in wind speed (seen a report of 185mph sustained winds) in my proposed scale (extended beaufort/hfws/tornados), based on earlier suggestions found in the net, gusting to 7 (flattening most stuff). Hopefully no inhabited islands of Bahama disappear.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 05:39:57 PM by Pmt111500 »

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 842
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #354 on: September 02, 2019, 06:02:39 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #355 on: September 02, 2019, 06:26:54 PM »
Someone pinned that thing onto Bahama...  :-\

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #356 on: September 02, 2019, 06:30:21 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane.

Do i remember you arguing the intensity of storms wouldn't increase? ;)

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #357 on: September 02, 2019, 06:33:56 PM »
Inside the eye of Dorian.

GoodeWeather

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #358 on: September 02, 2019, 06:44:18 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Spot on.   One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.

miki

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 134
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 187
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #359 on: September 02, 2019, 07:40:25 PM »
One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.


Truly fascinating. Terrible beauty.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1168531821346336769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #360 on: September 02, 2019, 07:42:42 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168531450519408641

#HurricaneDorian has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than two entire Atlantic #hurricane seasons since 1950: 1977 (25.3) and 1983 (17.4).

It still has another week to go.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Over the last 12 hours, #HurricaneDorian has traveled only ~40 miles (~3.3 miles per hour) across Grand Bahama island.  It is now moving west at only 1 mph.  The long-duration impacts of #Category5 #Dorian on Grand Bahama Island have been and will continue to be devastating.

------------------------


20 miles from Cape Canaveral in 48 hrs.

.... Another trend during the overnight hours has been a convergence of the global forecast models, as well as hurricane specific-models such as the HWRF and HMON, all of which bring Dorian very near to the Florida coast—perhaps somewhere in the vicinity of Melbourne, Titusville, and the Kennedy Space Center.

Under some of these scenarios, the left part of Dorian's eyewall comes ashore, or very nearly so, on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. During that time frame, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Dorian to retain a maximum wind speed of 140mph, still rated a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale.



Here is the GFS model forecast for Dorian's position for 11pm ET Tuesday.

Such a track would be similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016, with similar or worse damages depending on Dorian's track. Matthew caused an estimated $10 billion in damage to the United States, along with 34 direct fatalities, according to the National Hurricane Center's official report on the storm.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-is-going-to-come-very-very-close-to-florida/
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 08:47:11 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 255
  • Likes Given: 176
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #361 on: September 02, 2019, 08:13:03 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Andrew came in to Homestead south of Miami and crossed the Florida peninsula quite quickly.  Had Dorian come into Florida just north of Miami and moved slowly up the coast, the damage would have been several multiples of Andrew's.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #362 on: September 02, 2019, 08:20:44 PM »
http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/sep/02/hurricane-Dorian-updates-monday/ 

Video from the second floor deck - Freeport International Airport: FPO
https://mobile.twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1168540276949954560

Used to look like this from the second floor deck





Hurricane Dorian unleashed massive flooding across the Bahamas on Monday, pummeling the islands with so much wind and water that authorities urged people to find floatation devices and grab hammers to break out of their attics if necessary.

... The water reached roofs and the tops of palm trees. One woman filmed water lapping at the stairs of her home's second floor.

... "People who thought they were safe are now calling for help," Rigby said. "My best friend's husband is stuck in the roof of their house with 7 ft water below."

... Officials said they received a "tremendous" number of calls from people in flooded homes. Forecasters warned that Dorian could generate a storm surge as high as 23 feet (7 meters).

----------------------

The eye wall of #Dorian has been sitting over some of the same places of Grand Bahama Island for 6 HOURS.


Video at: https://twitter.com/i/status/1168477216973447168

------------------------

Video of the Grand Bahama International Airport currently being flooded with water. (2nd floor)

https://mobile.twitter.com/mvp242/status/1168468304379469824

------------------------


Gusts of 190 mph
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 10:10:30 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #363 on: September 02, 2019, 09:14:08 PM »
Very slowly moving north now.

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #364 on: September 02, 2019, 10:14:39 PM »




I think these predictions get updated automatically and if I understanding correctly most of them predict Dorian to reach Nova Scotia in 5/6 days while still being near a cat1/ cat2 hurricane?

That is rare, isn’t it?

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 720
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 383
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #365 on: September 02, 2019, 10:40:55 PM »
More storms are coming soon.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #366 on: September 02, 2019, 10:44:21 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/Bahamaspress

Video: https://mobile.twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168599030261325825

... Residents climbed into their roof as floodwaters wash away homes and cars in Freeport, Grand Bahama.

... Churchill Drive in Freeport is now under water. Residents are seeking assistance.

... A growing wall of missing persons is being published by BP as families in Abaco become frantic on the location of their loveones. Communities in Abaco are under water and many are missing and feared dead

-----------------------

Video shows rows of power trucks assembling in Wildwood, Florida
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-september-2019/index.html

-----------------------

Quote from: RikW
... I think these predictions get updated automatically and if I understanding correctly most of them predict Dorian to reach Nova Scotia in 5/6 days while still being near a cat1/ cat2 hurricane?

That is rare, isn’t it?

Rare but not unheard of ...

NOAA Historic Hurricane Tracker
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/
https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/


Shown here: Category 4 and 5 hurricane tracks from 1851-2016 in the East Atlantic ocean basin.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #367 on: September 02, 2019, 10:59:04 PM »
"Rare but not unheard of"

I was about to use those exact words: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 780
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #368 on: September 02, 2019, 11:06:05 PM »
Judging by that link this is an almost annual occurrence since around the 2000's. Before that it was rare but not unheard of.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #369 on: September 02, 2019, 11:10:55 PM »
Spooky!  8)

----------------------

U.S.Coast Guard crews along with health workers are headed to the Bahamas’ Andros Island, where they will be strategically stationed so that they can jump into action post-storm

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has spent much his day so far at the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, after approving emergency declarations in several states.

He retweeted a few updates from the National Hurricane Center on Dorian ... before wishing followers, “Happy labor day,” and retiring to his 800-acre private golf club.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/sep/02/hurricane-dorian-category-5-storm-bahamas-florida-south-north-carolina-updates?page=with:block-5d6d50368f0812d9e0267a66#block-5d6d50368f0812d9e0267a66

... and the little fingered slug couldn't even capitalize 'Labor'
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 57
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #370 on: September 02, 2019, 11:48:31 PM »
Judging by that link this is an almost annual occurrence since around the 2000's. Before that it was rare but not unheard of.

Worth noting that not all the hurricanes listed under that link were still at hurricane strength when they got to Canada.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17993
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 802
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #371 on: September 03, 2019, 02:42:16 AM »
Quote
Brian Lada (@wxlada) 9/1/19, 5:38 PM
Unbelievable footage from the Hurricane Hunters of #lightning inside of Hurricane #Dorian. I can't imaging what it's like to pilot that plane.
https://twitter.com/wxlada/status/1168276946150727681
Image below; 5-seconds of video at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 408
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #372 on: September 03, 2019, 07:30:09 AM »
24 hours of Dorian sitting motionless at 150-180 mph over Grand Bahama.
I can't imagine the horror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhOE4UePx2k&feature=youtu.be

Milret2

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 135
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #373 on: September 03, 2019, 07:50:05 AM »
I am just glad there is a U.S. Coasty out there who has the guts to go out and try to give comfort and help as much as that ship and crew can for those people while we continue under the illegitimate rule of that bastard in the White House. This retired Army officer salutes that Coast Guard commander, all of the crew, and that boat. Any decent COC of American services would free up a LOT of help via our military and civil services for something as disastrous as this situation just a few miles off our coast but our current president will ignore it to the best of his ability, even with a chattering group of staff people suggesting that just maybe something should be done to help an allied power who did so much for us in WWII and some of people he other dust ups we have been in since. I tend to wonder if the Commander of that ship is allowed to finish service with the honor deserved ... especially if the commander is a woman.

Milret2

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 135
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #374 on: September 03, 2019, 07:57:40 AM »
 Just looked it up, the Bahamas have been an independent nation for 47 years ... I thought they were British, sorry for the blunder. Those poor people have my deepest sympathy and I would hope they get ALL the help they will need.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 780
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #375 on: September 03, 2019, 02:24:30 PM »
Quote
Here is the total duration any given location has spent inside the radius of maximum wind, so far.

Portions of Grand Bahama are around 10 to 15 hours. Approaching 20 hours just offshore. And #Dorian continues to sit stationary.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1168730576398028803/photo/1
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #376 on: September 03, 2019, 02:46:01 PM »
^

Like a stationary tornado 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 780
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #377 on: September 03, 2019, 02:49:01 PM »
A giant stationary tornado under 10 feet of water.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 780
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #378 on: September 03, 2019, 02:57:44 PM »
Quote
Grand Bahama Island:

On the left a satellite image taken on Monday at 11:44aET

On the right an image from Google Maps of the same regions of Grand Bahama Island prior to #HurricaneDorian

Hard to imagine the scale of destruction.

#Dorian #hurricane Via
@ArtemisChats
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 842
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #379 on: September 03, 2019, 03:11:27 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane.

Do i remember you arguing the intensity of storms wouldn't increase? ;)

No.  You may remember me arguing that the hurricane experts (GFDL/NOAA) have stated, "While models and simulations have shown the likelihood of increases, they have not been observed to date."

miki

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 134
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 187
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #380 on: September 03, 2019, 03:23:50 PM »
Went to bed last night and then checked it back this morning.

It. Didn't. Fu...ing. Move.

That is heartbreaking!

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1168863409540087809
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 03:32:01 PM by miki »

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 780
  • Likes Given: 200
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #381 on: September 03, 2019, 03:37:50 PM »
I feel sorry for the scientists that downplayed climate change. As we can start witnessing, when confronted with their crimes, climate change deniers will blame conservative scientists that predicted harm for 2100. Even if the deniers have been trying to convince us for years that things wouldn't get worse and the scientist have been warning us using disclaimers about the risks, the deniers will deny their crime, with a straight face and indignation.

The  fact that honorable scientists will admit to their error, because they are good people, will make it easier for the deniers to shift the blame.

Soon they will start claiming they were warning us all along. It is just the coward's way.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2219
  • Likes Given: 1870
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #382 on: September 03, 2019, 05:36:32 PM »
Quote
Grand Bahama Island:

On the left a satellite image taken on Monday at 11:44aET

On the right an image from Google Maps of the same regions of Grand Bahama Island prior to #HurricaneDorian

Hard to imagine the scale of destruction.

#Dorian #hurricane Via
@ArtemisChats
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1
I am at a loss for words.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 581
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 255
  • Likes Given: 176
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #383 on: September 03, 2019, 06:12:11 PM »
How is that satellite image obtained through the hurricane's cloud cover?  Is the left image a photograph or some other imaging technique?

Tunnelforce9

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #384 on: September 03, 2019, 06:38:36 PM »
LATEST: Dorian is now a Category 2 storm and is expected to approach the east coastline of Florida Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-dorian-move-dangerously-close-florida-coast-battering/story?id=65352098&cid=social_twitter_abcn

Mozi

  • New ice
  • Posts: 50
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #385 on: September 03, 2019, 06:39:58 PM »
How is that satellite image obtained through the hurricane's cloud cover?  Is the left image a photograph or some other imaging technique?

https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/ers/instruments/sar/applications

"The ability of SAR to penetrate cloud cover makes it particularly valuable in frequently cloudy areas such as the tropics. Image data serve to map and monitor the use of the land, and are of gaining importance for forestry and agriculture."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17993
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 802
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #386 on: September 03, 2019, 06:44:32 PM »
Why Are Hurricanes Like Dorian Stalling, and Is Global Warming Involved?
Quote
Hurricane Dorian's slow, destructive track through the Bahamas fits a pattern scientists have been seeing over recent decades, and one they expect to continue as the planet warms: hurricanes stalling over coastal areas and bringing extreme rainfall.

Dorian made landfall in the northern Bahamas on Sept. 1 as one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, then battered the islands for hours on end with heavy rain, a storm surge of up to 23 feet and sustained wind speeds reaching 185 miles per hour. The storm's slow forward motion—at times only 1 mile per hour—is one of the reasons forecasters were having a hard time pinpointing its exact future path toward the U.S. coast.

With the storm still over the islands on Sept. 2, the magnitude of the devastation and death toll was only beginning to become clear. "We are in the midst of a historic tragedy in parts of our northern Bahamas," Prime Minister Hubert Minnis told reporters.

Recent research shows that more North Atlantic hurricanes have been stalling as Dorian did, leading to more extreme rainfall. Their average forward speed has also decreased by 17 percent—from 11.5 mph, to 9.6 mph—from 1944 to 2017, according to a study published in June by federal scientists at NASA and NOAA.

The researchers don't understand exactly why tropical storms are stalling more, but they think it's caused by a general slowdown of atmospheric circulation (global winds), both in the tropics, where the systems form, and in the mid-latitudes, where they hit land and cause damage. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03092019/hurricane-dorian-climate-change-stall-record-wind-speed-rainfall-intensity-global-warming-bahamas
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2264
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 250
  • Likes Given: 19288
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #387 on: September 03, 2019, 06:47:28 PM »
<snip>
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1

Most of the Island is submerged :o. Where have all the people gone? Is there any contact?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #388 on: September 03, 2019, 07:02:45 PM »
Dense rain may cause some difficulties but the radar altimeter and the frequencies used allow imaging through clouds:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic-aperture_radar

Waters will of course recede afterwards... This is erosion fast-forwarded by .... No can't put a number on this.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #389 on: September 03, 2019, 07:04:55 PM »
^^
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #390 on: September 03, 2019, 07:11:03 PM »
That is heartbreaking!

Indeed.  :'(

Quote
It. Didn't. Fu...ing. Move.

Indeed!

Here is 42 (forty-two) hours of madness:

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17993
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 802
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #391 on: September 03, 2019, 07:18:57 PM »
Hurricane Dorian captured by high definition camera outside the Space Station.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bluice

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #392 on: September 03, 2019, 07:25:13 PM »
There’s been predictions of global warming causing more frequent hurricanes and/or more powerful hurricanes but I cannot remember anything about stalling hurricanes.

We’ll be in for more such surprises as the planet warms.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17993
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 802
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #393 on: September 03, 2019, 08:01:40 PM »
Quote
Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 9/3/19, 1:15 PM
NASA's satellite derived rainfall data is quite valuable for tropical cyclones around the world like Hurricane #Dorian in the Bahamas.
There's a 12-hour latency, but so far over 40" estimated to have fallen between eastern tip of Grand Bahama and northern Abaco Islands.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1168935620217114624
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 332
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #394 on: September 03, 2019, 08:06:33 PM »

Grubbegrabben

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #395 on: September 03, 2019, 08:37:54 PM »
There’s been predictions of global warming causing more frequent hurricanes and/or more powerful hurricanes but I cannot remember anything about stalling hurricanes.

We’ll be in for more such surprises as the planet warms.

I have a very faint memory about a post that refered to a report stating that global warming may make landfalls rarer due to more powerful ridges blocking movement over land. In light of recent events (Harvey, Dorian) the report might be almost correct, the hurricanes stall just off- or almost on-shore with dramatic effects. I'll search a bit and edit this post if I find the report.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17993
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 802
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #396 on: September 03, 2019, 08:54:32 PM »
Quote
Robert Rohde (@RARohde) 9/3/19, 9:24 AM
#Dorian's incredible stall over the island of Grand Bahama appears to set a new record for the slowest moving major hurricane over any 24-hour period since records began in 1851.
Most people can easily walk faster than the mere 1.3 mph (2.0 kph) that Dorian has been advancing.
https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1168877388429692928
- Interestingly, ranks 5, 8, and 10 also involved major hurricanes that stalled to the east of Florida, though not quite in the same location as Dorian.
- Dorian has been the slowest-moving major hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic.
Considering the larger population of all Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, Dorian's 1.3 mph (2.0 kph) crawl ranks in the slowest 0.2%.
< How does it compare to Hurricane Harvey, when it hovered over Houston?
RR:  Harvey was only tropical storm force when it stalled, so it wouldn't qualify for this list.
However, for comparison, it's minimum 24-hour speed was 2.6 mph (4.3 kph), which would make it faster than Dorian but still quite slow.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17993
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 802
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #397 on: September 03, 2019, 08:59:02 PM »
In a very general sense, can’t stalled hurricanes be likened to stalled high pressure areas, which result in extended heat waves or cold spells?  The atmospheric steering currents are slowing because of the reduced temperature difference between the equator and the poles.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

FrostKing70

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 172
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #398 on: September 03, 2019, 09:10:24 PM »

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2226
  • Likes Given: 298
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #399 on: September 03, 2019, 09:19:45 PM »
Hurricanes and Typhoons are Becoming 'Sluggish' — and That Makes Them More Destructive
https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricanes-moving-more-slowly-causing-more-damage-2018-6

- Over the past 70 years, the speed of hurricanes and tropical storms has slowed about 10% on average, according to new research.
- That doesn't mean storm systems have become less intense, just that they're crossing Earth more slowly, which actually gives storms more time to dump rain and lash an area with powerful winds.
- Over land, especially in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific, storms are moving 20-30% more slowly.



James P. Kossin, A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed, Nature Volume 558, pages104–107 (2018)

Open Access: Timothy M. Hall & James P. Kossin, Hurricane stalling along the North American coast and implications for rainfall, Climate and Atmospheric Science Volume 2, Article Number: 17 (2019)

------------------------------------

A Global Slowdown of Tropical-Cyclone Translation Speed and Implications for Flooding
https://riskfrontiers.com/rf2018/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Briefing-Note-370.pdf



--------------------------------

Hurricanes: A Bit Stronger, a Bit Slower, and a Lot Wetter in a Warmer Climate
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-hurricanes-bit-stronger-slower-lot.html

Scientists have published a detailed analysis of how 22 recent hurricanes would change if they instead formed near the end of this century. While each storm's transformation would be unique, on balance, the hurricanes would become a little stronger, a little slower moving, and a lot wetter.

In one example, Hurricane Ike—which killed more than 100 people and devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2008—could have 13 percent stronger winds, move 17 percent slower, and be 34 percent wetter if it formed in a future, warmer climate.

The study, led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and published in the Journal of Climate, compares high-resolution computer simulations of more than 20 historical, named Atlantic storms with a second set of simulations that are identical except for a warmer, wetter climate that is consistent with the average outcome of scientific projections for the end of this century.

... As a group, the storms in the future simulation had 6 percent stronger average hourly maximum wind speeds than those in the past. They also moved at a 9 percent slower speed and had a 24 percent higher average hourly maximum rainfall rate. Average storm radius did not change.

... there was one consistent feature across storms: They all produced more rain.



Open Access: Ethan D. Gutmann et al. Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr Convection-Permitting Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation, Journal of Climate (2018)
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 09:31:34 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late