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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #400 on: September 03, 2019, 09:21:34 PM »
Or a slightly older post referencing stalled hurricanes and rain potential:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extreme-hurricane-rainfall-expected-increase-warmer-world


vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #401 on: September 03, 2019, 09:43:03 PM »
New Aerial Footage of the Bahamas After Hurricane Dorian Is Absolutely Gut-Wrenching
https://earther.gizmodo.com/new-aerial-footage-of-the-bahamas-after-hurricane-doria-1837843886



After 36 hours of pummeling winds and waves from the Category 5 hurricane, the world is getting its first glimpse at what that devastating transformation looks like.

Aerial footage has revealed shipping containers ripped open like tin cans, houses scattered and torn apart, and boats hundreds of feet inland from the nearest marinas. The aerial footage was shot by storm chasers who flew over Abaco, the first island to get struck by Hurricane Dorian. WXChasing, the storm chasers who shot the footage, reported that conditions were rough and that there were still hurricane-force winds (winds greater than 74 mph) blowing when they took off.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1168935923528208390
https://twitter.com/i/status/1168885165189451781
https://twitter.com/i/status/1168835589027848194



The Red Cross estimates that an astounding 99 percent of people on the islands will need emergency assistance, and at least 13,000 houses—45 percent of the islands’ housing stock—have been damaged or destroyed. Though there are only five reported deaths, that number will almost surely rise as rescue crews begin to make their way across the islands. If you’d like to help with recovery efforts, Lifehacker has a helpful guide for how to direct your resources.

https://6abc.com/weather/widespread-destruction-in-bahamas-storm-zone-after-dorian-video/5512084/



https://spacecoastdaily.com/2019/09/video-aftermath-from-hurricane-dorian-shows-complete-devastation-in-grand-bahama/
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 11:34:01 PM by vox_mundi »
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bluice

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #402 on: September 03, 2019, 10:01:37 PM »
Thanks for the links about slow moving hurricanes. I do think that this phenomenon was not commonly expected prior Harvey in 2017. Which would mean we had no idea before we started observing it happen.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #403 on: September 04, 2019, 03:39:19 AM »
Evacuation orders given for coastal areas in several states.  But highways remain clear.

Florida, Georgia, Carolina residents face evacuation orders as Dorian approaches - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/02/us/evacuations-hurricane-dorian/index.html

Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/3/19, 3:21 PM
Today, I have interstate 95 north all to myself. I never get used to such strange occurrences along when I call “the hurricane highway“.

heading into the Carolinas now.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1168967336524730368
Brief video clip at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #404 on: September 04, 2019, 03:54:24 AM »
Thread by @iCyclone:
Quote
Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane #DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong. ...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1169009558167142402.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #405 on: September 04, 2019, 04:08:25 AM »
Details of Kennedy Space Center‘s previous brushes with hurricanes, and updates on preparations now for Hurricane Dorian.

“Both of SpaceX’s Starship construction sites in Florida and Texas are in hurricane-prone locations, so this type of securing procedure was always part of SpaceX’s contingency plan for their first two Starships.”

Kennedy Space Center, Cape ready for Hurricane Dorian
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/09/kennedy-space-center-cape-impacts-hurricane-dorian/
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Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #406 on: September 04, 2019, 09:15:47 AM »
400-500 people alive at Abaco (Marsh Harbour) Clinic, report says. Only some heavy duty helicopters have been able to get people out of the island due high winds. Rescue/relief efforts to Abaco to become easier today as the winds weaken.

https://reliefweb.int/report/bahamas/hurricane-dorian-situation-report-no-4-2-september-2019-1600-edt
« Last Edit: September 04, 2019, 09:38:49 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #407 on: September 04, 2019, 06:44:44 PM »
Here’s Why the Carolinas Are So Much More Vulnerable to a Hurricane Like Dorian Right Now
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/08/heres-why-the-carolinas-are-so-much-more-vulnerable-to-a-hurricane-like-dorian-right-now/
Quote


Puerto Rico has escaped the worst of Hurricane Dorian. And it looks like Florida might, too: On Saturday morning, the storm again shifted paths, and it appears likely to skirt Florida’s eastern coast instead of making a direct hit. That doesn’t mean the danger is over for Florida, and it does put the rest of the southeastern coast, especially Georgia and the Carolinas, in harm’s way sometime next week. South Carolina has already declared a state of emergency. Worse still is if the Category 4 storm makes landfall in vulnerable areas still recovering from last year’s Hurricane Florence.

The stakes have grown much higher when a hurricane threatens to hit the coast. There are a lot of reasons for this. As I explained two years ago, “Some are psychological, others are practical, and many are self-inflicted.” Climate change is part of the problem, with warmer temperatures fueling deadlier, wetter storms. Rising sea levels increase the chances of coastal flooding. But it’s also the blind spots that North Carolina politicians have developed on climate change. While seas are rising, these lawmakers have encouraged building in low-lying areas, and in some cases discouraged state law from reflecting scientific realities.

The Carolinas are flanked by low-lying narrow barrier islands that have seen housing and tourist development during the past few decades “in places where it probably should not have been,” according to the Associated Press. Much of that development has been subsidized by a federal flood insurance program that shelled out $1.5 billion to cover flood claims in two dozen coastal counties even before Hurricane Florence struck. Last year, when Florence made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, it dealt the region $24 billion in damages and 53 deaths. The floodwaters breached hog lagoons and coal ash pits and threatened Superfund sites.

Unwise development isn’t the only problem. As in Florida, North Carolina politicians have also allowed climate change denial to dictate their decision-making.

In 2010, a panel of scientists advising the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission, which guides the state’s coastal development, issued a report projecting 39 inches of sea-level rise by the end of the century. The report triggered political backlash from developers and the Republican-controlled legislature, which preferred that the commission rely only on historical data. The state ended up passing a law requiring a broader range of projections to dilute findings that sea level rise would accelerate. Newer research has found that the sea level is rising even faster along the southeastern coast than global averages. Instead of considering the best science out there, the governor-appointed commission ultimately limited the science panel’s projections to 30 years into the future.

How Has Climate Change Affected Hurricane Dorian?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/climate/hurricane-dorian-climate-change.html
Quote
While it’s common to hear the question, “Was it caused by climate change?” scientists argue that this is an unhelpful way to look at the issue. As Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, put it recently on Twitter, “that’s the wrong question. The right one is, ‘how much worse did climate change make it?’”


Hurricane Dorian + Florida’s Toxic Waste = Trouble
https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/hurricane-dorian-florida-s-toxic-waste-trouble-coal-ash
Quote
Unfortunately for Florida, hurricanes like Dorian have a way of revealing environmental injustices. Hurricane Katrina, along with displacing tens of thousands of people, resulted in what was then the worst oil spill in North America since the Exxon Valdez in 1989. In the wake of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rican residents had to resort to drinking water contaminated by Superfund sites. Forty inches of rain pummeled Houston during Hurricane Harvey, flooding hazardous waste sites and causing mercury to collect along local riverbanks.

Dorian’s projected path could converge with sewage disposal operations and concentrated animal feeding units, says Lisa Rinaman of Waterkeepers Florida. But the biggest worry is coal ash. At least three coal ash sites could be impacted by the strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge of the offshore hurricane: the Seminole Generating Station east of Gainesville, the Stanton Energy Center near Orlando, and the St. Johns River Power Park in Jacksonville.

Bahamas Relief Efforts Frustrated as Dorian Pulls Away
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/world/americas/bahamas-hurricane-dorian.html
Quote
As Hurricane Dorian pulled away from the Bahamas, relief workers, medical personnel, pilots and others gathered at a private terminal of the Nassau airport on Wednesday amid boxes of supplies, anxiously awaiting permission from the government to fly to devastated areas and provide assistance.

But with most of the runways on Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama — the islands most heavily pummeled by the storm — flooded or covered in sand, it was difficult to deliver help or even assess the damage wrought by the storm. In addition, the government has given priority to helicopter evacuations.

Hurricane Dorian leaves terrible destruction in Bahamas as it rolls toward U.S.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/hurricane-dorian-leaves-terrible-destruction-in-bahamas-as-it-rolls-toward-us/2019/09/03/71dbebec-ce75-11e9-b29b-a528dc82154a_story.html
Quote
Entire neighborhoods have been wiped out, with houses turned to rubble. Cars and even huge metal shipping containers have been scattered by a storm surge that meteorologists report might have reached 23 feet on islands and cays that are just modestly above sea level. The ocean became, in effect, a bulldozer.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2019, 08:20:30 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #408 on: September 04, 2019, 08:48:52 PM »
One indicator of hurricane strength is energy output measured by a formula called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This is a measure of the total energy generated by a hurricane over the course of its lifetime.

The most energetic storm, with an ACE of 70.4, was Hurricane Ivan (2004). A long-lasting Cape Verde storm that tracked all the way from Africa to the Panhandle of Florida in 23 days, spending several days as a category 5.

Dorian's ACE value was 37 as of Tuesday at noon EST.

- 37 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units generated so far – the 11
th most for a named storm forming in August in the satellite era (since 1966).
- 37 ACE – more than nine full Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1950: 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994 and 2013.

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168889148025069571
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #409 on: September 04, 2019, 09:48:20 PM »
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/4/19, 12:48 PM
Uh.... looks to me like it’s becoming quite a bit better organized and this is also seen in radar images. Might we have a strengthening hurricane closing in on the coast?
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1169291048641814529
< It sure looks that way, recon currently finding pressure slowly but surely dropping. Been saying it could reintensify into a cat 3 since this morning.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #410 on: September 05, 2019, 01:40:25 AM »
The first unofficial sightings of SpaceX assets outside of KSC report no damage from the storm.

Greg Scott (@GregScott_photo) 9/4/19, 2:27 PM
FIRST STARSHIP UPDATE: As of this early this morn #Starship is still inside and seems to be fine. No evidence of people on site yet, but all the fabrication on the ground seems to also still be in place.. I think we dodged a bullet! #Dorian …
https://twitter.com/gregscott_photo/status/1169316168735309826

All is well with #SpaceX’s Starship prototype after Hurricane #Dorian skirted by the Space Coast. No damage in the area.
https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/1169282802887614464

Of Course I Still Love You appears to have weathered the storm. She’s still berthed, and there’s no obvious damage! #OCISLY
https://twitter.com/spacecoast_stve/status/1169248385288814592

Port Canaveral is officially open. 6 cruise ships will be arriving tomorrow!
Dorian is currently offshore at Jacksonville, where the SpaceX Fleet is sheltering, so don't expect to see them rushing back.
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1169356738732154880

Images/video clips at the links.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #411 on: September 05, 2019, 03:16:41 AM »
Dorian is intensifying again. 100 kt, 958 mb according to tropicaltidbits.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #412 on: September 05, 2019, 03:29:29 AM »
Flightradar24 (@flightradar24)
9/4/19, 9:20 PM
#NOAA42 once again active inside #Dorian.    fr24.com/NOAA42/21f92e1d
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1169419895337099270
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #413 on: September 05, 2019, 03:51:13 AM »
Quote
Using recon data & satellite center fixes, here are wind duration swaths by category for #Dorian, zoomed in on Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands.

As it stalled out, portions of the islands endured:
hurricane-force winds for over 36 hours,
cat 2 for >24 hrs,
cat 3 for 6-12 hours!

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1169398977776803840


Very nice visualization.  Vox, thanks for posting the images of my prior posts, I would post the myself if I knew how. If you can do this one to it would be great. 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #414 on: September 05, 2019, 04:12:53 AM »
Charleston, South Carolina
Quote
Charleston Weather (@chswx)
9/4/19, 7:50 PM
We’ve just passed low tide. The tide bottomed out at 2.85’. The predicted astronomical tide? 0.35’.

Surge is building, folks.
https://twitter.com/chswx/status/1169397417835409408
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Ktb

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #415 on: September 05, 2019, 05:10:45 AM »
Quote
The President of the United States altered a National Hurricane Center map with a sharpie to falsely extend the official forecast toward Alabama so he didn't have to admit he was wrong in a tweet.

It is a violation of federal law to falsify a National Weather Service forecast and pass it off as official, as President Trump did here.

18 U.S. Code § 2074

https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/1169309514669199361

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wili

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #416 on: September 05, 2019, 05:21:58 AM »
One commentator equated it to a third grader scribbling on his report card to try to alter a grade. Again, psychiatrists are asserting that there needs to be a thorough evaluation of the POTUS's mental competence for the security of the country: https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/psychiatrists-demand-full-evaluation-to-determine-if-trump-suffers-from-any-of-multiple-different-disorders/
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #417 on: September 05, 2019, 07:32:39 AM »
Not a psychiatrist, but when a guy looks up to the sky and sais 'i'm the chosen one', i can see how there must be some detachment from reality and narcissism involved here. Or that time when he bragged about his building now being the tallest after 9/11.

Now he is clearly demented. Can't even speak anymore.

People who think there is a need for a psychiatrist to asses if the POTUS is mentally ill are in need of a psychiatrist.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #418 on: September 05, 2019, 11:29:25 AM »
Turning aside for a moment from the alternative reality of the parallel universe of the White House, a look at the particularities of Dorian and changes to the nature of hurricanes.....extracts from an article by Michael Mann and Andrew E Dessler

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/04/climate-crisis-hurricane-dorian-floods-bahamas
Global heating made Hurricane Dorian bigger, wetter – and more deadly
We know that warm waters fuel hurricanes, and Dorian was strengthened by waters well above average temperatures

Quote
While the science has yet to come in on the specifics of just how much worse climate change made Dorian, we already know enough to say that warming worsened the damage.

Sea surface temperatures were more than 1C warmer in the region where Dorian formed and strengthened than they were before we started burning fossil fuels. Empirically, there is a roughly 7% increase in maximum sustained wind speeds of the strongest storms for each 1C of warming. Since destructive potential is proportional to the third power of the wind speed, that corresponds to a 23% increase in potential wind damage.

We know that the warmer air gets, the more moisture it can hold – and then turn into flooding rains in a storm like this.

But there are two other ways that warming has probably worsened Dorian’s damage.

One is that all that warm water allowed for the storm to ramp up quickly, undergoing what is known as rapid intensification as it exploded from a moderate category 2 to extreme category 5 over just two days. A recent study has shown that this is getting more common because of climate change,

So while climate change is making it so hurricanes can spin up quickly, it may also be slowing down how fast hurricanes move. Had Dorian been moving at a regular pace of a few miles an hour, the devastation in the Bahamas would have been much less severe. But because it sat in place, basically stationary, the damage has been catastrophic. Again, Dorian is far from unique in moving slowly, as a study last year found a 10% decrease in speed for storms like this globally, while a similar study found a 17% decrease along the east coast of the US.

When all these factors combine in one storm, as it has for Dorian, it is truly a nightmare scenario – and a preview of the climate crisis to come. The only question is whether we have the foresight to address it.



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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #419 on: September 05, 2019, 11:45:46 AM »
Storm surge, strong winds and up to 15" of rain for the coasts of the Carolinas. Ouch.

And on Sunday / Monday Nova Scotia / Newfoundland get a hurricane for breakfast.
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El Cid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #420 on: September 05, 2019, 12:29:30 PM »
And on Sunday / Monday Nova Scotia / Newfoundland get a hurricane for breakfast.

Or not. This baby was expected to land in Florida and see what happened...

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #421 on: September 05, 2019, 01:33:01 PM »
Indeed. But then model tracks were all over the place, and now they are tightly clustered.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #422 on: September 05, 2019, 01:51:01 PM »
Dorian

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

 RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far Southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Coastal Georgia...1 to 2 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

 TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/050919.shtml?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #423 on: September 05, 2019, 01:59:44 PM »
Charleston, South Carolina expecting major flood levels.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #424 on: September 05, 2019, 02:07:22 PM »
60 frames, 40-minute increments
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #425 on: September 05, 2019, 02:14:24 PM »
Quote
A bunch of majestic horses that spend their days frolicking on the beach in North Carolina's Outer Banks will not be evacuated.

With Hurricane Dorian quickly approaching, the colonial Spanish mustangs will huddle together and ride out the storm using a trick horses have used for centuries.

They will move to higher ground and gather under sturdy oak trees to shelter from the storm, said the Corolla Wild Horse Fund, which manages the herd and sends a similar reminder during major hurricanes due to the outpouring of concern for the horses. "They'll likely ride out winds and rain as their ancestors did before them — in huddles, butts to the wind," it added.

And unlike human beings living in the Outer Banks, the wild horses are better equipped to handle a hurricane. They're already sensing a change in air pressure and are grouping up together.

"Remember, they've been doing this for 500 years!" the Fund said.

The horses' food, water and other supplies have been stocked up at the farm.

They have extra hay and grain, and their troughs are filled with water. They also have ID tags braided into their manes, and the herd manager will ride out the storm at the farm with them, the Fund said. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/05/us/north-carolina-wild-horses-hurricane-dorian/index.html
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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #426 on: September 05, 2019, 02:38:58 PM »
For those interested in the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), here is the source I use:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic


FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #427 on: September 05, 2019, 02:41:55 PM »
Dorian now at 41.3 ACE and climbing:


vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #428 on: September 05, 2019, 02:49:50 PM »
Thanks, FrostKing. I was looking for that.  :)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #429 on: September 05, 2019, 03:12:51 PM »
Nice. I used this source.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #430 on: September 05, 2019, 05:40:35 PM »
NOAA buoy 41004 is located 41 nautical miles south east of Charleston, and looks to be in Dorian's eye at the moment:

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SteveMDFP

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #431 on: September 05, 2019, 06:05:12 PM »
is located 41 nautical miles south east of Charleston, and looks to be in Dorian's eye at the moment:

Great find!  Thanks Jim.  Also of note, a spun-off tornado near Myrtle Beach, SC:


Video clip of this beast at:
VIDEO: Tornado spotted in North Myrtle Beach; warnings issued throughout morning
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2019/09/05/video-tornado-spotted-north-myrtle-beach/

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #432 on: September 05, 2019, 06:09:38 PM »
60 frames, 1-minute increments
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

aperson

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #433 on: September 05, 2019, 06:26:28 PM »
And on Sunday / Monday Nova Scotia / Newfoundland get a hurricane for breakfast.

Or not. This baby was expected to land in Florida and see what happened...

There's a big difference between a fully tropical system with little to no synoptic steering and a hurricane undergoing extratropical transition that is firmly hooked to a gigantic trough.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #434 on: September 05, 2019, 06:32:10 PM »
South Carolina Emergency Management Division
Quote
SCEMD (@SCEMD) 9/5/19, 9:18 AM
Situation reports coming in from county emergency managers. More than 202,000 power outages statewide, some reports of damage, trees down in the Lowcountry. 33 emergency shelters open statewide. #Dorian #SCTweets #scwx
https://twitter.com/scemd/status/1169600733051834369

Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 9/5/19, 11:05 AM
Here are the 11 am EDT key messages on Hurricane #Dorian. The latest full advisory is always available at hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1169627628031995905
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #435 on: September 05, 2019, 07:17:24 PM »
A man bought 100 generators to help the Bahamas. They're being delivered by boat
Quote
A man walked into a Costco in Florida and left with 100 generators, all of which are heading to The Bahamas.

His receipt read $49,285.70 and most of that came from paying $450 a pop for 100 generators. Peas, beans, coffee, salt, pepper and other essentials made up the rest of his mega purchase from a Costco in Jacksonville, Florida, on Wednesday.

All of it is going to those in need on the hard-hit islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco, he said. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/04/us/man-buys-generators-bahamas-trnd/index.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #436 on: September 05, 2019, 07:50:13 PM »
https://www.hopetownsailingclub.com/

On the ground reporting


Many more images

----The MHH airport is inoperable, under water, with roofs and building debris on the runway. Sandy Point is only place that rescue and relief teams can land, but…all the Ferries to bring people and relief to the island have sunk.

For Elbow Cay right now (where the hurricane made first landfall) — boats, helicopters and planes cannot even get to folks.

A general survey of damages using video footage.

Elbow Cay – 30% of structures demolished . 70% of structures damaged to severely damaged
Most docks destroyed and unusable 99% of boats sunk

Man O War Cay, all docks destroyed and every boat sunk. 90% of structures damaged to severely damaged. 10% of structures destroyed.

Dickies Cay – all docks destroyed. 50% structures destroyed & 50% of structures damaged to severely damage.

... After flying over Marsh Harbour Abaco and the surrounding areas today, I can safely say that we have never in our history experienced a disaster of this magnitude. The size and scale of this hurricane and the response required will be tremendous. I would like to caution aid groups and relief workers that running in this headfirst without proper planning and coordination you may add to the problem. The reality on the ground is not an instagrammable moment, but one that is riddled with risks and is still an active evacuation zone. There are still many ways to get involved and support our trained first responders and coordinate with them prior to any action, you do not want to become a victim while trying to help.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #437 on: September 06, 2019, 11:29:19 AM »
Not quite landfall for the centre of Dorian's eye at Cape Lookout?
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 03:49:46 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #438 on: September 06, 2019, 03:10:46 PM »
The NHC has announced that:

Quote
Surface and radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Dorian made landfall at 835 AM EDT (1235 UTC) over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph (150 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 03:25:26 PM by Jim Hunt »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #439 on: September 06, 2019, 05:42:35 PM »
Moving away from land atm.

60 frames, 2-minute increments
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

bligh8

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #440 on: September 06, 2019, 06:43:54 PM »
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-09-06/na-dorian-north-carolina-category-one

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina’s Outer Banks as it pushes up Eastern Seaboard



"WILMINGTON, N.C. —  Hurricane Dorian howled over North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Friday — a much weaker version of the brute that wreaked havoc in the Bahamas — flooding homes in the low-lying ribbon of islands and throwing a scare into year-round residents who chose to tough it out. Hundreds were feared trapped on one flooded island, the governor said."

"Its winds down to 90 mph, the Category 1 hurricane lashed communities with rain and surging seawater as it hugged the islands. Around midmorning, its eye came ashore at Cape Hatteras, Dorian’s first landfall on the U.S. mainland."

“It’s bad,” Ann Warner, who owns Howard’s Pub on Ocracoke Island, said by telephone. “The water came up to the inside of our bottom floor, which has never had water.” She said a skylight blew out and whitecaps coursed through her front yard and underneath her elevated house."



bligh

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #441 on: September 06, 2019, 06:50:29 PM »
3 days ago I said to a friend in Halifx that within 10 years they will face a fully fledged =>cat1 hurricane overhead, that was perhaps a bit optimistic :-(

Yes I know it can be better or worse in about 2 days but still, only the real possibility that it will happen and then a slight turn west would make N.Y. the target, slightly before 9/11 this time ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #442 on: September 06, 2019, 07:50:07 PM »
Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina, hundreds may be trapped
Quote
Hurricane Dorian made landfall along Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Friday as those on the state's low-lying islands battled ferocious rain and braced for flash flooding and dangerous storm surge.

Hundreds may be trapped on Ocracoke Island where the deadly storm "is raging" and "waters are rising quickly," North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said Friday.

"I don't think rescue crews can get in at this point, but they are ready to go as soon as they possibly can," Cooper said.

The Hyde County Sheriff's Office called the flooding on Ocracoke Island "catastrophic."

Leslie Lanier, who lives on Ocracoke Island, said some residents had to climb into their attics to escape the water.

"Hatteras Island is literally drowning... the flooding is insane," Outer Banks resident Sarah Ashley, who evacuated inland but said her husband stayed behind, told ABC News via email. "We're praying that these winds die down before high tide [Friday afternoon]." ...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-dorian-whips-north-carolina-coast-deadly-storm/story?id=65425190
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aperson

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #443 on: September 06, 2019, 08:55:19 PM »
3 days ago I said to a friend in Halifx that within 10 years they will face a fully fledged =>cat1 hurricane overhead, that was perhaps a bit optimistic :-(

The Canadian Maritimes are hit by hurricanes regularly, but not frequently. Hurricane Juan in 2003 (973mb / 85kt) is a good example of one that caused significant damage in Halifax. So impacts happening altogether is well within climatology, though I would expect frequency to increase as systems stay tropical longer before they fully go extratropical and the poleward migration of tropical cyclones results in more hits up there.

That being said. I do not think the maritimes have ever seen a major (cat 3+) hurricane landfall.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 09:01:41 PM by aperson »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #444 on: September 06, 2019, 09:27:53 PM »
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/6/19, 2:42 PM
With #Dorian making its way upwards towards Canada, hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1170044557402263553
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #445 on: September 06, 2019, 11:03:32 PM »
Is climate change making hurricanes stall?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/is-climate-change-making-hurricanes-stall
Quote
Over the last seven decades, hurricane stalling, which causes a storm to release massive amounts of rain on small areas, has become more common, research published in June in the journal Nature shows. But it is currently unclear if the trend is due to climate change or natural variation.

How warm oceans supercharge deadly hurricanes
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/09/how-warm-water-fuels-a-hurricane/
Quote
Both Klotzbach and University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy say linking any one storm to massive global change is challenging, and so is linking Hurricane Dorian to climate change.

Scientists instead look at patterns to assess how storms are changing over time.

The fourth National Climate Assessment predicted hurricanes could become more intense and destructive as the climate warms. Some studies suggest a warming atmosphere could make for slower winds, and research is increasingly showing that warmer conditions make hurricanes slower and wetter.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 11:36:56 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #446 on: September 07, 2019, 01:07:32 AM »
According to the catastrophe modelling agency KCC, Dorian should cost to Bermuda at least USD7bn in economic damage:
https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-dorian-impact-on-bahamas-likely-to-cost-7bn-says-kcc/
which seems to be higher than Bermuda's GDP (USD6.3bn in 2017 at current market price):
https://www.gov.bm/sites/default/files/GDP%202017%20annual%20publication.pdf


bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #447 on: September 07, 2019, 01:38:03 AM »
HWRF model , Dorian landfall in Nova Scotia could be extremely close to Halifax, the port could be on the East/ North East quadrant, wondering whether there could be funnelling effect when the storm surge happens; let's hope it won't happen at high tide. Weather Canada, hurricane statement at 3am ADT confirms that landfall would be very near or over Halifax on Saturday evening with max sustained wind of 139km/h and MSLP at 960mb while HWRF shows  minimum pressure at 948mb close to landfall.




vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #448 on: September 07, 2019, 02:23:14 AM »
“Precious Hours Were Wasted”: Trump’s Doctored Map Affected Hurricane Forecasters
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/precious-hours-were-wasted-trumps-doctored-map-affected-hurricane-forecasters/

On Wednesday, when President Donald Trump was showing off a doctored hurricane forecast in the White House Oval Office, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were mortified.

It was a critical moment for the federal tropical cyclone experts because Hurricane Dorian had begun to show signs of re-intensifying—it would later become a major hurricane again—and its track appeared increasingly likely to bring the storm's center ashore somewhere in the Carolinas. Two sources in the Miami-based hurricane center told Ars that Trump's "update" on Hurricane Dorian effectively paralyzed operations.

After Trump spoke, the forecasters' cell phones buzzed with incessant distractions. Media briefings were stopped for the afternoon. "Precious hours were wasted," one official at the center told me. "We aren’t going to put out bad forecasts, but we need to keep the eye on the ball here."

Instead of warning residents of the Southeastern United States about a re-strengthening Dorian just as it posed its greatest threat to the nation, the media subsequently pivoted to cover Trump's preposterous attempt to re-write the history of Dorian's forecast. As an American, I felt embarrassed. As a meteorologist, I was livid. ...

--------------------

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #449 on: September 07, 2019, 03:43:34 AM »
Seriously?  Does anyone actually believe that his misstatements hindered efforts in any way?  Please stop posting such nonsense.