Hurricane Season 2019

[sidd]

Re: hurricane shelters

Bangladesh:

https://weburbanist.com/2011/08/28/windbreakers-bangladesh-cyclone-shelter-architecture/

sidd

[Sigmetnow]

...
The thing is that this types of hurricane will happen more frequently, because of warmer waters an changing atmospheric patterns. This person, Mr. Cornish, who I assume to be a professional in charge of safe guarding the lives of their people is painfully unaware of it. Sadly, we are seeing these types of events more frequently and the rate and severity will keep increasing while the world warms and Earth systems change

Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.

Not a bad idea. For the population and size of Bahamas a "super refuge" sounds like a good idea. A properly built and well stocked building can preserve life and property. It should be built on a high place with an extremely good foundation, reinforced walls and windows and roof.

Ideally such facility should serve a purpose during the time is not used a shelter.

Also like all real security measures, the people need to be properly trained on the procedures for before, during and after the event.

A sturdy hurricane shelter is a good idea.  But as you say, destructive storms are occurring more frequently.  How often can the local populace afford to rebuild their own homes, and lives, before they become climate refugees?

[gerontocrat]

JERRY
The chance of Bermuda getting a 2nd walloping has increased

[Sigmetnow]

Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX) 9/19/19, 2:09 PM
Houston storm tracks today be like ...

https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/1174747385337196545

[Sigmetnow]

Videos from local Texas TV station.  People have abandoned their cars on flooded streets; others saying they’ve been stuck there for four hours.  Water 3 feet deep (1 m) or more in places.

I-10 blocked in Chambers, Jefferson counties | abc13.com

Chambers County Emergency Management said that water is in businesses and homes, reminding people that if they do evacuate and go to a shelter, remember to bring their pets, have them on a leash and bring food.

https://abc13.com/weather/i-10-blocked-in-chambers-jefferson-counties/5552127/

[Sigmetnow]

Taylor Trogdon (@TTrogdon) 9/19/19, 1:57 PM
White Oak Bayou near Houston has risen an astounding 20 feet in just one hour. That is a remarkable response to the rainfall rates experienced around metro Houston over the last few hours.

https://twitter.com/ttrogdon/status/1174744357150158849
Image below.

——

Houston Bush Airport (@iah) 9/19/19, 1:38 PM
Roads approaching the airport are flooded, if you have to pick someone up from the airport right now, delay your drive. The airport is open, we have power and restaurants are open, so your passenger will be ok.

https://twitter.com/iah/status/1174739658573529089

[vox_mundi]

More videos of flooding

https://www.katc.com/news/national-news/imeldas-flooding-rains-close-portion-of-i-10-near-beaumont

[Sigmetnow]

The Weather Channel:
“Some areas in Southeast Texas have picked up 40 inches of rain in 3 days.”

40 inches = 1 meter!

Hurrican Harvey in 2017 dumped over 50 inches of rain.  At the time, that broke the record for the greatest amount of rain recorded from a single tropical storm or hurricane in the continental United States. It’s more than 4 feet of rain.

[Sigmetnow]

Near (now flooded by) White Oak Bayou.  The gas station was completely rebuilt after being inundated in Hurricane Harvey.  Note the “Flood Gauge” sign.

-TWC

[Sigmetnow]

White Oak Bayou, on a normal day, and today.
To the far right, behind the line of trees under the ramp in the second image, is actually a highway.

-TWC

[Sigmetnow]

Houston, Texas.
Buffalo Bayou flooding.
- The Weather Channel

[vox_mundi]

Texas Is Drowning Under One of the Wettest Storms in US History
https://www.livescience.com/amp/imelda-catastrophic-flooding-texas.html

... Storms that drop this much rain are estimated to appear once in a millennium, according to precipitation models created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But the last 1,000-year-rainfall to inundate Texas was Hurricane Harvey — which slammed the state just two years ago.



https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_printpage.html?lat=29.9247&lon=-94.1392&data=depth&units=english&series=pds

Eric Holthaus
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1174719922586472449?s=20

This is now one of the worst fresh-water floods in American history.

TS #Imelda has brought more than 41 inches of rain in the past 3 days to Texas — that’s a 1-in-1000 year rainfall event, just 2 years after Harvey (also a 1-in-1000 year event.)

We are in a climate emergency.

For southeast Texas, 41 inches would be a very wet *two month* period, not expected more than once every 100 years (in a stable climate). It’s happened in three days.

https://t.co/MEipToEeGP?amp=1

[Aluminium]

Meanwhile, in the northern Indian Ocean.

[vox_mundi]

Barges Break Loose and Strike I-10 Interstate Bridge near Houston after Imelda Forces 400 Water Rescues and Strands 300 Drivers
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/20/weather/imelda-flooding-friday-wxc/index.html
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_b1c443c0-dba5-11e9-9b20-8be03c7f238e.html



... The Coast Guard says at least two of the barges struck the Interstate 10 bridge over the San Jacinto River at Channelview, about 15 miles east of Houston.

Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez says there is possible structural damage to the bridge, and that it won't reopen until inspections occur.

Photos from a Houston TV station show at least two support columns with large cracks in them.

Both bridges were closed to traffic Friday morning, and vessel movement beneath them remained suspended following strong currents Thursday evening, Perez said.

At least one loose barge is carrying an unknown hazardous substance, Perez said.



https://twitter.com/DougDelonyKHOU/status/1175021301548933120/photo/1



In addition to the bridge, parts of Interstate 10 remain closed in Louisiana and Texas because of flooding related to Imelda, traffic officials said Friday morning.

[Tom_Mazanec]

OK, this guy has an axe to grind, yet the topic, if very improbable, does not seem impossible to me:
Is California About To Get Hit By A Hurricane For The Very First Time In U.S. History?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/is-california-about-to-get-hit-by-a-hurricane-for-the-very-first-time-in-u-s-history

In the entire history of our country, a hurricane has never made landfall in the state of California.  So if such a thing actually happened, it would be considered to be an extremely unusual event.  Well, right now there are three very dangerous tropical storms swirling in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Tropical Storm Kiko is not expected to be a serious threat to make landfall, but Tropical Storm Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario “are expected to become hurricanes by Friday as they approach the Mexican coast”.  Tropical Storm Lorena is the more immediate threat, and the latest forecast is projecting that it will reach Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula by Saturday.  If it maintains hurricane strength and continues to ride up the west coast, it is entirely possible that we could see something that we have never seen before.  Most forecasters don’t want to talk too much about it yet, because it truly would be an unprecedented event, but there really is a chance that California could get hit by a hurricane for the very first time in U.S. history.

[mitch]

The person is wrong about history. A hurricane hit San Diego in 1858:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

[vox_mundi]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[Sigmetnow]

Imelda.  Houston, Texas.

2 dead as flooding disaster brings Houston area to standstill
https://abcnews.go.com/US/imelda-dumps-feet-rain-parts-texas/story?id=65739994

Images below from The Weather Channel.

[vox_mundi]

Hurricane Lorena makes landfall at Mexico's Los Cabos resort
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-hurricane-lorena-threatens-mexico-los.html

"The eye of Hurricane Lorena is now passing over the coast of Los Cabos," Mexico's hurricane monitor, CONAGUA, wrote on Twitter.

According to CONAGUA, Lorena was packing sustained winds of 140 kilometers (87 miles) per hour as it battered Los Cabos, making it a Category One hurricane on the scale of one to five.

After moving slowly northwest throughout the morning, it ground to a halt 70 kilometers from the beach town of Cabo San Lucas, dumping torrential rain on the area.

The US National Hurricane Center said the storm was expected to pour up to 20 centimeters (eight inches) of rain on the region, which "may result in flash flooding."

It warned that the storm's trajectory was "highly uncertain."

[Sigmetnow]

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 9/22/19, 5:13 AM
NEW: Tropical Storm #Karen has formed in the Windward Islands this morning, and a variety of watches and warnings are in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Full advisory: hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1175699547516858371
Image below.  Tropical storm winds map at the link.

[vox_mundi]

That sure looks like a redux of 'Sandy'. Hopefully, it'll head towards Greenland.

[Sigmetnow]

EyeOnTheTropics (@OnTropics) 9/22/19, 2:41 PM
New #Euro run for #TropicalStormKaren continues showing a left turn sometime Friday. #12z run backs off #Karen's intensity and has it farther North than the 00z run, which is more in line with the GFS. Still VERY EARLY, but seems a stronger storm=stronger ridge=farther South

https://twitter.com/ontropics/status/1175842598684168192

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/22/19, 2:38 PM
That’s never a good sign.
As I said, going to be a long week ahead. Already tough going today for Tobago as RAIN once again causes significant problems. Will need to watch #Karen closely.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1175841811547512832
Image below.

[blumenkraft]

Karen

18 frames, 10-minute increments

Click to play!

[Aluminium]

This one is going to hit the Arabian Peninsula.

03A HIKAA

As of 06:00 UTC Sep 23, 2019:

Location: 20.2°N 64.6°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

[Sigmetnow]

The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 9/23/19, 8:11 AM
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed near the African coast and will likely grow into Hurricane #Lorenzo as it moves through the Atlantic this week:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-22-tropical-depression-thirteen-tropical-storm-lorenzo-cabo-verde

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1176106688903966720

[Klondike Kat]

At the autumnal equinox, this is where the global tropical season stands based on accumulated cylcone energy (ACE):

North Atlantic:  82.0, an increase of 11.9% above the average ACE of 73.3
Northeast Pacific:  92.1, a decrease of 10.4% from the average of 102.8
Northwest Pacific:  113.4, a decrease of 36.2% from the average of 177.8
North Indian:  34.6, an increase of 317% above the average of 8.3

Northern Hemisphere:  322.1, a decrease of 11% from the average of 362.2

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[Aluminium]

Hikaa has hurricane power now. 70 kt / 985 mb. Image from worldview.

Only 3 storms affected the Arabian Peninsula in September.

[blumenkraft]

Karen moving quite fast now.

18 frames, 20-minute increments

Click to play

[Aluminium]

The weather station of Duqum airport has recorded a mean wind of 52 knots and gusting of 67 knots at 6:25 PM accompanied with heavy rain as the the tropical cyclone #Hikaa approaches coasts of al Wusta governorate.

Source.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Tropical Storm Imelda left 5 dead in Texas and many flooded. Will FEMA aid come next?
https://www.texastribune.org/2019/09/23/tropical-storm-imelda-leaves-texans-wondering-if-theyll-get-fema-money/

Five deaths are linked to floods from Tropical Storm Imelda, the worst storm in Texas since Hurricane Harvey and one of the wettest tropical cyclones in the nation’s history, according to the National Weather Service.

Imelda dumped as much as 43 inches of rain in some parts of southeast Texas, according to the National Weather Service. In comparison, Harvey dropped about 60 inches of rain.

[Sigmetnow]

… Models agree that Karen’s forward motion will stall as the steering currents collapse. The latest NHC forecast depicts Karen making a small clockwise loop before embarking on a west-southwest track Saturday and Sunday as the upper high builds near and to the north of Karen, blocking recurvature. On such a course, Karen would approach the Bahamas about a week from now and could theoretically continue onward into Cuba or Florida later next week.
…
On Jerry’s current track, the center is likely to pass less than 70 miles to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday evening. Since tropical storm-force winds are predicted to extend out about 70 miles to the northeast of Jerry’s center at that time, Bermuda could see tropical storm-force winds, in addition to about 1” of rain. The 11 am EDT Wednesday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 67% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.
…
Tropical Storm Lorenzo became the Atlantic’s fifth hurricane of the year at 5 am EDT Wednesday. Hurricane Lorenzo gives the Atlantic 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 87 so far in 2019. An average season typically has 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 76 by September 25.
…

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/After-Puerto-Rico-and-Virgin-Islands-What-Next-Karen

[Aluminium]

Lorenzo is major hurricane currently. 110 kt / 955 mb.

[Aluminium]

Lorenzo (September 26) and Dorian (August 31) in comparison. 1 km/pixel. Lorenzo is bigger.

[miki]

Lorenzo (September 26) and Dorian (August 31) in comparison. 1 km/pixel. Lorenzo is bigger.

A monster. And so far East. May it remain a storm for the fish.

[be cause]

Not happy seeing Lorenzo possibly tracking towards Ireland . We seem to be getting more than our share of post-tropical depressions of late . This could be the season's nasty one . b.c.

[philopek]

Not happy seeing Lorenzo possibly tracking towards Ireland . We seem to be getting more than our share of post-tropical depressions of late . This could be the season's nasty one . b.c.

Perhaps the "Lord" decided to send as many of those to places where compared to all the self-destruction in form of Brexit and electing criminal and mentally ill diletants like GWB, DJT, BoJo and the likes, the damage of a little extra storm does not add much to the works. [sarc]

[Alexander555]

And because they keep printing money, The US, UK, Europe... They add more to climate change than anybody else on this planet.

[bluesky]

  Cat 4 Lorenzo set record of the  strongest hurricane so far East in the Atlantic according to the hurricane scientist Philip Klotzbach from Univeey of Colorado, and reported by wunderground cat 6 / Jeff Masters' blog:

Lorenzo had peaked with 145 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb at 5 am EDT Friday at 42.1°W longitude.  Tropical storm wind expands to 450 miles

www.wunderground.com/cat6/Category-4-Lorenzo-Setting-Records-Karen-Weakening-Tropical-Depression?cm_ven=cat6-widget

[Aluminium]

Lorenzo is intensifying again. 130 kt / 936 mb / 23.8°N 45.0°W.

Update: Lorenzo is category 5 hurricane.

[MrGreeny]

Hurricane Lorenzo now peaks at 925mb with 160mph winds.

Currently heading north at 10mph.

[Jim Hunt]

Not happy seeing Lorenzo possibly tracking towards Ireland

The resultant swell is due to arrive here in North Cornwall on Friday:

[miki]

The second Cat 5 hurricane of 2019!

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1178130426885480449

[Sigmetnow]

Richard Dixon on Twitter: "All >=115kt hurricanes since 1960 on or after 26th September. Unless I've made a howler in analysing the data, #Lorenzo is quite an anomaly.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/catinsight/status/1177303247553478656
Image below.

[gerontocrat]

Lorenzo has the UK met office scratching its collective head.

Some models say it will collapse near the UK, some say not, some say France, some say North of Scotland. But that was earlier today.

[Sigmetnow]

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 9/29/19, 4:17 PM
Take a look at the size of this conglomeration of storms over the north Atlantic in 96 hours. Lorenzo is on the right. We’re talking 1000s of miles of strong wind and huge seas! Amazing!
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1178403429594619905
Image below.

[Yuha]

Three Rescued After Tugboat Sinks in Hurricane Lorenzo
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo

At a Glance

• The Bourbon Rhode sank Thursday with 14 crew on board.
• An emergency beacon indicated the boat was in the center of Hurricane Lorenzo.
• The three survivors are reported to be in good health.

[Tom_Mazanec]

So could Lorenzo be the "Great Storm" of 2019 for the UK, like 1703 and 1987?

[vox_mundi]

Hurricane Lorenzo to Bring 70-Foot Waves to Azores
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-hurricane-lorenzo-foot-azores.html

The Category 2 Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to hit the Portuguese islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Waves up to 22 meters (72 feet) high and hurricane wind gusts over 200 kilometers mph (124 mph) are forecast for some islands.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecasts continuing large swells around the North Atlantic basin in the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip tide conditions. It predicts that Lorenzo will be slow to weaken but probably will be below hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Britain's Met Office said Lorenzo would bring very strong winds and heavy rains to western areas of the U.K. on Thursday and Friday.

[Sigmetnow]

The Weather Channel: "#Hagibis poses a #typhoon threat for the Northern Mariana Islands, then Japan...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1180594986183581696
Image below.

[Jim Hunt]

Hurricane Lorenzo to Bring 70-Foot Waves to Azores.

Britain's Met Office said Lorenzo would bring very strong winds and heavy rains to western areas of the U.K. on Thursday and Friday.

Fortunately inside some shelter the waves were a lot smaller than that in the U.K. yesterday!